Tsar Paul's expedition to India

I've been reading up on Paul, looking to do a timeline, but can't work out exactly what the plans were for this - found a good online book that shows that the order was definitely given, and the force set out, and that it was somewhere around Ekaterinburg when Alexander called it back after Paul's death.

But what exactly was the plan?

And, as far as I can see from the masses of secret communications, it was expected in Paris that the Cossack expedition would be followed up by a larger joint Russo-French expedition...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Found a bit more information on a website

First Consul of the French Republic planned to take General Massen from Italy and give him 35,000 soldiers of the Rhine army led by General Moreau who had defeated Austrians in the battle of Hogenlinden.

Knowing about Massen's achievements in Genoa, Paul I personally chose him as the commander of the task force. Massen was expected to head his task force in May 1801. After that his troops were to go down the Danube River to Ismail, to cross the Black and Azov Seas and to reach the Russian city of Taganrog. The ships with the French troops onboard were to enter the estuary of the Don River and sailing upstream to reach the town of Tsaritsin.
From there they were to go down the Volga River to the port of Astrakhan. In Itil, the former capital of the Khazar Khaganate, which by the early 19th century had turned into a typical provincial town with watermelons, camels and the Kalmyk people, Massen's grenadiers were to join the Russian Cossacks under the command of hetman Orlov. After that the Russian-French 70,000 troops (in which Russia accounted for 35,000 people) were to cross the Caspian Sea onboard of the Russian ships and to debark in the Persian city of Astrabad.

According to the calculation of Napoleon's assistants the route from France to Astrabad would take 83 days. From Astrabad the army via Herat and Kandahar was to reach India in 50 days by September 1801. In India the Russian-French army were supposed to attack the British troops.

In January 1801, Paul I started the project known as the Orenburg or Indian campaign. On January 12 he sent a letter to hetman Orlov: "the Brits are preparing to attack me and my allies Swedes and Danes from land and sea. I am ready for these attacks but we also should find their most vulnerable place and to attack them there. Their Indian colony is the best place for the attack. Herein I entrust you to head this expedition and to lead your troops through Khiva and Bukhara to India. It will take only one month to reach India but the abundance of this land will be our reward ".

Orlov sent the captain of his Cossacks Denezhnikov to the governor of Orenburg to collect all necessary information about the future campaign. He took 22, 500 Cossacks and went to Orenburg where he was to receive reinforcements. In his writ dated January 12 the czar was too hasty - only the road from Kuban in the south of Russia to the town of Tsaritsin on the Volga River took one month and a half. In his letters to Paul I Orlov complained about the poor state of his troops. A horse ride across the Kalmyk steppes in winter was not a pleasant trip. The morning frost was usually followed by thaw in the afternoon. Melting snow made the roads impassable and Cossacks' clothes wet and heavy. There was a lack of food and fodder and the soldiers often were starving.

In his second letter Paul wrote: "Our goal is to destroy all British colonial institutions in India and to set Indian people free and treating them kindly make them dependable on Russia". Together with the second letter the czar sent the maps of India found in the Imperial headquarters in St. Petersburg. On looking through the letter and the maps the Cossacks' hetman groaned. India was still a long way to go. His troops had to cross the Kazakh and Turkmen steppes, to enter Persia to cover mountains and only than to reach India.

The expedition was badly organized. The rear of the Cossack troops was not protected but considering the strategy of the allies it was reasonbale. There were only 32,000 soldiers of the British Crown in India and only 2,000 of them were British.

The rest 30,000 were sepoys, aboriginal soldiers who were taught the European type of war. Their allegiance to the British Crown was shaky. While Britain's East Indian company was strengthening its position in India the army under command of General Harris was war-weary because of constant clashes with rebellious Indian princedoms. If the Russian campaign had been a success India would note have been the pearl of the British Crown anymore .

By mutual agreement Bonaparte signed peace with Persia the country Russia had difficult relations with. In his turn Paul I helped France to establish good relations with Turkey. And though some historians found the whole Indian campaign to be absurd others admit that it was a serious project. They are inclined to think that if India had been conquered Paul I would have reaped all the laurels. The expedition of hetman Orlov was to become the first stage of the conquest of India by Russia and France.

According to the czar's plan 22,500 Cossacks would create the first Russian base in Central Asia in Bukhara and Khiva for further conquest of India.
While supporting Paul's moves Napoleon was also preparing for a new Asian campaign. In his conversation with the Russian messenger Sprengporten Napoleon noted with enthusiasm: "Your sovereign agrees with me that if we take India away from England we will weaken England's might. India, this fairy land, this Oriental diamond, has given much more wisdom to the world than this drunken and vicious England with its shopkeepers". Saying so, Napoleon looked energetic again reminding himself in the times of the Egyptian campaign. Though the plans were dramatic they were just plans and once the Brits learnt about them they intensified the efforts of their military forces and spies.

On December 24, 1800 an assassination attempt on Napoleon was made. The British shareholders did not want to lose their dividends from the shares of the East-Indian Company and financed the conspiracy against the Russian czar.
As we know on the night from March 11 to March 12 1801, the conspirators killed Paul I strangling him to death in St. Michael's Palace in St. Petersburg.
One of the first decrees of the new Russian Emperor Alexander I was the order to halt the Indian campaign. The messenger of the new czar caught up with the troops of hetman Orlov on March 23 in the Saratov region. The hetman looked sadly at the messenger all of a sweat his clothes dirty with road dust. He expected to find the new instructions from Paul in the envelope but when he looked through the document he saw an unfamiliar handwriting and a signature by Alexander I. On reading through the decree he announced to his Cossacks that the new czar orders them to return home. The Cossacks rejoiced. The Indian campaign was over.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
You know, we dismiss the expedition as foolish, but I could see it doing some real damage in Persia. The Russians managed to expand in Central Asia OTL, after all.
 
I think the Franco-Russian Force would be very lucky if it managed to reach the Punjab. To make it that far it would have had to confront at least half a dozen major tribal and nomadic forces, to say nothing of the Qajars in Persia. Since none of the expedition's opponent possessed anything approaching modern military equipment, they could not stand against the force in a pitched battle. The primary obstacles to the army would be logistical, and the logistical challenge would be hurculean to supply the army when it has reached Astrakhan. After the force crosses the Caspian Sea, it would probably be on its own for supplies.

70,000 men might, with luck manage to support themselves off the land by pillage. The cossacks would prove invaluable for such work. They would also be heavily relied upon as scouts in order to blaze a path through the Hindu Kush, find water, and of course detect ambushes. The line infantry and artillery, though vital once the force arrives in India, would do little but slow the army down until they reached "civilization" on the Indus.

In fact, the cossacks are really the only members of the force who would really been suited to the task. A purely cossack force would stand a pretty good chance of making it across Afghanistan alive. They would have difficulty once they reached India proper, though, unless they could strike some kind of deal with the Sikh Empire.

Future historians would probably look back on any successful Franco/Russian incursion into India as representing something akin to Shackleton's expedition: a near-miraculous feat of human endurance.
 
Even if they never make it to India, an earlier Russian penetration of Central Asia is going to have massive butterfly effects. St. Petersburg might just get a warm water port on the Indian Ocean after all, and Paris would have a helping hand in breaking Egypt from the Turks, and dismantling the latter's empire.
 
Even if they never make it to India, an earlier Russian penetration of Central Asia is going to have massive butterfly effects. St. Petersburg might just get a warm water port on the Indian Ocean after all, and Paris would have a helping hand in breaking Egypt from the Turks, and dismantling the latter's empire.
On the other hand, if the Tsar sends a huge Cossack/French army south that (rapes and) pillages its way to the Indian ocean, with the British helpfully returning both:) survivors by sea, then 1) the Russians might be so put off the whole idea that the penetration of Central Asia is SLOWED, not sped. 2) the Cossacks might be so annoyed they'd cease supporting Russia. Expansion east stops dead in its tracks. 3) the southwest Asians exposed to the Russian advance might leap into British arms for protection.
 
On the other hand, if the Tsar sends a huge Cossack/French army south that (rapes and) pillages its way to the Indian ocean, with the British helpfully returning both:) survivors by sea, then 1) the Russians might be so put off the whole idea that the penetration of Central Asia is SLOWED, not sped. 2) the Cossacks might be so annoyed they'd cease supporting Russia. Expansion east stops dead in its tracks. 3) the southwest Asians exposed to the Russian advance might leap into British arms for protection.

Point 1: Maybe, really depends on the impression that is left on the mind of the Tsar and his advisers in St. Petersburg. The suffering and deaths of thousands of soldiers may or leave much of an impression on men living comfortably thousands of miles away.

2. Russia is really the only game in town at this point. The days of the independent Hetmanates were over by 1800. Pugachev's rebellion was in living memory. As fervent Orthodox Christians, common cossacks would never serve the Ottomans or the Austrians, while the leadership was entirely attached to the court of the Tsars. At worst some Cossacks might seek to avoid army service for a few years, and the next few musters will be light.

3.Who exactly? The Qajars at this point were too backwards to realize they needed more than a few military advisers, and the King was too weak to force his very inward looking country to accept more than a few token followers. The Uzbeks, Tajiks and Pashtuns were simply too isolated and too xenophobic to ever accept outside rule unless it was imposed. And the Sikh Empire at this time was more interested in turning out the British from India than asking their advice.

Edit: On point #2, the existence of the Danubian Sich at this time contradicts my point. If treated badly enough, some cossacks may well have deserted the Russian Empire.
 
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Point 1: Maybe, really depends on the impression that is left on the mind of the Tsar and his advisers in St. Petersburg. The suffering and deaths of thousands of soldiers may or leave much of an impression on men living comfortably thousands of miles away.
Less the suffering of soldiers and more the suffering of the treasury, but mostly I wanted to throw in a counterpoint to the 'inevitable gains, even if the expedition fails' that seemed to be dominant up to this point.

As for point 3, Persia was friendly to Russia during much of the 19th century. If Cossacks (and French) go rampaging across their territory, it will make them think a lot better of the British.

Similarly for e.g. Afghans. OTL, the British were the existential threat to them, being the big power next door, so they flirted with the Russians as counter balance.

If a massive, devastating expedition crushes through (parts of Afghan) territory, there will be an institutional memory that will make the Brits look better when they arrive on the scene.

Whatever happens, it would massively change the dynamics of the 'Great Game'.
 
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