Deleted member 1487
To further the general debate about the US contribution to the war effort in WW1:
What if the US remained completely neutral and didn't allow the Entente to raise credit in the US or allow them to buy war materials as defined by London Declaration? Let's say that selling bonds to private citizens is not forbidden, but banks and other financial institutions are forbidden from purchasing them.
I realize this is hard to pull off, but as the US senate ratified the treaty, regardless of its wider acceptance in the world, the US was bound by it. Assuming Wilson abided by it, what would the effect have been on the war?
As it was the US provided $2Billion in 1914 value dollars to the Entente from August 1914- April 1917.
Beyond that the Entente also made large purchases of cotton, unfilled shells, explosives, and various bullets from the US. While not decisive in absolute terms the Entente would be weaker without the money and goods. Some could be purchased elsewhere, but it would not be to the same scale as OTL purchases. That means in relation to the 1914-1917 period the Entente would have significantly fewer shells and other explosives than historical and could potentially exhaust their funds earlier without US capital. This probably means fewer German losses and a weaker Entente war effort overall, perhaps changing certain battles like Verdun and the Somme due to lack of money/materials. Also the Entente artillery/aircraft advantage would not be nearly as pronounced early on.
One final and crucial loss would be of US machinery to manufacture war materials, which the Entente purchased a fair bit of OTL, which here means that the French and British will have a harder time building shells and bullets than OTL.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_London
http://www1.umn.edu/humanrts/instree/1909b.htm
CONTRABAND OF WAR
Art. 22. The following articles may, without notice (*), be treated as contraband of war, under the name of absolute contraband:
(1) Arms of all kinds, including arms for sporting purposes, and their distinctive component parts. (2) Projectiles, charges, and cartridges of all kinds, and their distinctive component parts. (3) Powder and explosives specially prepared for use in war.
(4) Gun-mountings, limber boxes, limbers, military waggons, field forges, and their distinctive component parts.
(5) Clothing and equipment of a distinctively military character.
(6) All kinds of harness of a distinctively military character.
(7) Saddle, draught, and pack animals suitable for use in war.
(8) Articles of camp equipment, and their distinctive component parts.
(9) Armour plates.
(10)Warships, including boats, and their distinctive component parts of such a nature that they can only be used on a vessel of war.
(11)Implements and apparatus designed exclusively for the manufacture of munitions of war, for the manufacture or repair of arms, or war material for use on land or sea.
Art. 23. Articles exclusively used for war may be added to the list of absolute contraband by a declaration, which must be notified.
Such notification must be addressed to the Governments of other Powers, or to their representatives accredited to the Power making the declaration. A notification made after the outbreak of hostilities is addressed only to neutral Powers.
Art. 24. The following articles, susceptible of use in war as well as for purposes of peace, may, without notice (*), be treated as contraband of war, under the name of conditional contraband:
(1) Foodstuffs.
(2) Forage and grain, suitable for feeding animals. (3) Clothing, fabrics for clothing, and boots and shoes, suitable for use in war.
(4) Gold and silver in coin or bullion; paper money. (5) Vehicles of all kinds available for use in war, and their component parts.
(6) Vessels, craft, and boats of all kinds; floating docks, parts of docks and their component parts. (7) Railway material, both fixed and rolling-stock, and material for telegraphs, wireless telegraphs, and telephones.
(8) Balloons and flying machines and their distinctive component parts, together with accessories and articles recognizable as intended for use in connection with balloons and flying machines. (9) Fuel; lubricants.
(10)Powder and explosives not specially prepared for use in war.
(11)Barbed wire and implements for fixing and cutting the same.
(12)Horseshoes and shoeing materials.
(13)Harness and saddlery.
(14)Field glasses, telescopes, chronometers, and all kinds of nautical instruments.
Art. 25. Articles susceptive of use in war as well as for purposes of peace, other than those enumerated in Articles 22 and 24, may be added to the list of conditional contraband by a declaration, which must be notified in the manner provided for in the second paragraph of Article 23.
Art. 26. If a Power waives, so far as it is concerned, the right to treat as contraband of war an article comprised in any of the classes enumerated in Articles 22 and 24, such intention shall be announced by a declaration, which must be notified in the manner provided for in the second paragraph of Article 23.
Art. 27. Articles which are not susceptible of use in war may not be declared contraband of war.
Art. 28. The following may not be declared contraband of war:
(1) Raw cotton, wool, silk, jute, flax, hemp, and other raw materials of the textile industries, and yarns of the same.
(2) Oil seeds and nuts; copra.
(3) Rubber, resins, gums, and lacs; hops.
(4) Raw hides and horns, bones, and ivory. (5) Natural and artificial manures, including nitrates and phosphates for agricultural purposes. (6) Metallic ores.
(7) Earths, clays, lime, chalk, stone, including marble, bricks, slates, and tiles.
(8) Chinaware and glass.
(9) Paper and paper-making materials.
(10)Soap, paint and colours, including articles exclusively used in their manufacture, and varnish.
(11)Bleaching powder, soda ash, caustic soda, salt cake, ammonia, sulphate of ammonia, and sulphate of copper.
(12)Agricultural, mining, textile, and printing machinery.
(13)Precious and semi-precious stones, pearls, mother-of-pearl, and coral.
(14)Clocks and watches, other than chronometers. (15)Fashion and fancy goods.
(16)Feathers of all kinds, hairs, and bristles. (17)Articles of household furniture and decoration; office furniture and requisites.
Art. 29. Likewise the following may not be treated as contraband of war:
(1) Articles serving exclusively to aid the sick and wounded. They can, however, in case of urgent military necessity and subject to the payment of compensation, be requisitioned, if their destination is that specified in Article 30. (2) Articles intended for the use of the vessel in which they are found, as well as those intended for the use of her crew and passengers during the voyage.
Art. 30. Absolute contraband is liable to capture if it is shown to be destined to territory belonging to or occupied by the enemy, or to the armed forces of the enemy. It is immaterial whether the carriage of the goods is direct or entails transhipment or a subsequent transport by land.
Art. 31. Proof of the destination specified in Article 30 is complete in the following cases:
(1) When the goods are documented for discharge in an enemy port, or for delivery to the armed forces of the enemy.
(2) When the vessel is to call at enemy ports only, or when she is to touch at a enemy port or meet the armed forces of the enemy before reaching the neutral port for which the goods in question are documented.[/SIZE]
What if the US remained completely neutral and didn't allow the Entente to raise credit in the US or allow them to buy war materials as defined by London Declaration? Let's say that selling bonds to private citizens is not forbidden, but banks and other financial institutions are forbidden from purchasing them.
I realize this is hard to pull off, but as the US senate ratified the treaty, regardless of its wider acceptance in the world, the US was bound by it. Assuming Wilson abided by it, what would the effect have been on the war?
As it was the US provided $2Billion in 1914 value dollars to the Entente from August 1914- April 1917.
Beyond that the Entente also made large purchases of cotton, unfilled shells, explosives, and various bullets from the US. While not decisive in absolute terms the Entente would be weaker without the money and goods. Some could be purchased elsewhere, but it would not be to the same scale as OTL purchases. That means in relation to the 1914-1917 period the Entente would have significantly fewer shells and other explosives than historical and could potentially exhaust their funds earlier without US capital. This probably means fewer German losses and a weaker Entente war effort overall, perhaps changing certain battles like Verdun and the Somme due to lack of money/materials. Also the Entente artillery/aircraft advantage would not be nearly as pronounced early on.
One final and crucial loss would be of US machinery to manufacture war materials, which the Entente purchased a fair bit of OTL, which here means that the French and British will have a harder time building shells and bullets than OTL.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_London
http://www1.umn.edu/humanrts/instree/1909b.htm
CONTRABAND OF WAR
Art. 22. The following articles may, without notice (*), be treated as contraband of war, under the name of absolute contraband:
(1) Arms of all kinds, including arms for sporting purposes, and their distinctive component parts. (2) Projectiles, charges, and cartridges of all kinds, and their distinctive component parts. (3) Powder and explosives specially prepared for use in war.
(4) Gun-mountings, limber boxes, limbers, military waggons, field forges, and their distinctive component parts.
(5) Clothing and equipment of a distinctively military character.
(6) All kinds of harness of a distinctively military character.
(7) Saddle, draught, and pack animals suitable for use in war.
(8) Articles of camp equipment, and their distinctive component parts.
(9) Armour plates.
(10)Warships, including boats, and their distinctive component parts of such a nature that they can only be used on a vessel of war.
(11)Implements and apparatus designed exclusively for the manufacture of munitions of war, for the manufacture or repair of arms, or war material for use on land or sea.
Art. 23. Articles exclusively used for war may be added to the list of absolute contraband by a declaration, which must be notified.
Such notification must be addressed to the Governments of other Powers, or to their representatives accredited to the Power making the declaration. A notification made after the outbreak of hostilities is addressed only to neutral Powers.
Art. 24. The following articles, susceptible of use in war as well as for purposes of peace, may, without notice (*), be treated as contraband of war, under the name of conditional contraband:
(1) Foodstuffs.
(2) Forage and grain, suitable for feeding animals. (3) Clothing, fabrics for clothing, and boots and shoes, suitable for use in war.
(4) Gold and silver in coin or bullion; paper money. (5) Vehicles of all kinds available for use in war, and their component parts.
(6) Vessels, craft, and boats of all kinds; floating docks, parts of docks and their component parts. (7) Railway material, both fixed and rolling-stock, and material for telegraphs, wireless telegraphs, and telephones.
(8) Balloons and flying machines and their distinctive component parts, together with accessories and articles recognizable as intended for use in connection with balloons and flying machines. (9) Fuel; lubricants.
(10)Powder and explosives not specially prepared for use in war.
(11)Barbed wire and implements for fixing and cutting the same.
(12)Horseshoes and shoeing materials.
(13)Harness and saddlery.
(14)Field glasses, telescopes, chronometers, and all kinds of nautical instruments.
Art. 25. Articles susceptive of use in war as well as for purposes of peace, other than those enumerated in Articles 22 and 24, may be added to the list of conditional contraband by a declaration, which must be notified in the manner provided for in the second paragraph of Article 23.
Art. 26. If a Power waives, so far as it is concerned, the right to treat as contraband of war an article comprised in any of the classes enumerated in Articles 22 and 24, such intention shall be announced by a declaration, which must be notified in the manner provided for in the second paragraph of Article 23.
Art. 27. Articles which are not susceptible of use in war may not be declared contraband of war.
Art. 28. The following may not be declared contraband of war:
(1) Raw cotton, wool, silk, jute, flax, hemp, and other raw materials of the textile industries, and yarns of the same.
(2) Oil seeds and nuts; copra.
(3) Rubber, resins, gums, and lacs; hops.
(4) Raw hides and horns, bones, and ivory. (5) Natural and artificial manures, including nitrates and phosphates for agricultural purposes. (6) Metallic ores.
(7) Earths, clays, lime, chalk, stone, including marble, bricks, slates, and tiles.
(8) Chinaware and glass.
(9) Paper and paper-making materials.
(10)Soap, paint and colours, including articles exclusively used in their manufacture, and varnish.
(11)Bleaching powder, soda ash, caustic soda, salt cake, ammonia, sulphate of ammonia, and sulphate of copper.
(12)Agricultural, mining, textile, and printing machinery.
(13)Precious and semi-precious stones, pearls, mother-of-pearl, and coral.
(14)Clocks and watches, other than chronometers. (15)Fashion and fancy goods.
(16)Feathers of all kinds, hairs, and bristles. (17)Articles of household furniture and decoration; office furniture and requisites.
Art. 29. Likewise the following may not be treated as contraband of war:
(1) Articles serving exclusively to aid the sick and wounded. They can, however, in case of urgent military necessity and subject to the payment of compensation, be requisitioned, if their destination is that specified in Article 30. (2) Articles intended for the use of the vessel in which they are found, as well as those intended for the use of her crew and passengers during the voyage.
Art. 30. Absolute contraband is liable to capture if it is shown to be destined to territory belonging to or occupied by the enemy, or to the armed forces of the enemy. It is immaterial whether the carriage of the goods is direct or entails transhipment or a subsequent transport by land.
Art. 31. Proof of the destination specified in Article 30 is complete in the following cases:
(1) When the goods are documented for discharge in an enemy port, or for delivery to the armed forces of the enemy.
(2) When the vessel is to call at enemy ports only, or when she is to touch at a enemy port or meet the armed forces of the enemy before reaching the neutral port for which the goods in question are documented.[/SIZE]
