Trotskyist Mexico

I'm still not sure how that means any earlier communist movement in the Western hemisphere (i.e. during WWI) is less likely to succeed. Unless there are some pre-WWII nukes I'm not aware of...

It means if it does succeed there is nothing to stop the US from invading. The US was anti-communist from at least the 1920s.
 
It means if it does succeed there is nothing to stop the US from invading. The US was anti-communist from at least the 1920s.

Yeah but not on the same level as they where after World War II, they where anti-communist but not anti-communist enough to invade immediately. This also ignores that the invasion may not succeed in beating the communists, the Reds in Russia where able to withstand the intervention of most of the great powers so why is Mexico a country much better suited for Guerilla Warfare doomed to failure in their resistance to the US.
 
Yeah but not on the same level as they where after World War II, they where anti-communist but not anti-communist enough to invade immediately. This also ignores that the invasion may not succeed in beating the communists, the Reds in Russia where able to withstand the intervention of most of the great powers so why is Mexico a country much better suited for Guerilla Warfare doomed to failure in their resistance to the US.

That was my point! Haha, thanks.
 

WeisSaul

Banned
Yeah but not on the same level as they where after World War II, they where anti-communist but not anti-communist enough to invade immediately. This also ignores that the invasion may not succeed in beating the communists, the Reds in Russia where able to withstand the intervention of most of the great powers so why is Mexico a country much better suited for Guerilla Warfare doomed to failure in their resistance to the US.

I'm pretty sure that if the US wanted to march in and beat the communists out of Mexico, anti American sentiment would surge in Mexico and the communists would be seen as the glorious people's opposition to the American Capitalist imperialists. So an invasion would be a pretty bad PR problem for the anti-communists in Mexico. It'd probably lessen their ranks as the Trotskyists become the leading force in any anti-american military effort.

I'd think the US might try to carve out an anti-communist state out of Sonora, Baja, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, and Durango. Chiapas separatism could also be taken advantage of if you want a pro-US ally flanking Mexico's south. If Roosevelt was President while this was going on it'd be a hell of a TL.:D

So what would we be calling this Trotskyist Mexico anyway? The United Mexican Socialist Republics? Just reorganize/merge a few of the Mexican states and have a centralized federal Socialist government?
 
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I'm not sure if Trotsky spoke Spanish, my guess is that he probably did but even if not, he had an amazing ability to pick up languages, an important skill for a revolutionary.He taught himself Norwegian in a few months.

I remember from the Issac Deutscher "Prophet" biography of Trotsky is that he was almost put on a boat for Havana instead of New York. Trotsky tried to avoid this at all costs, he felt New York was a much more important place for him to be.I could picture a TL where he finds himself in Mexico in 1917 instead of New York. He may have had some influence on the Mexican Revolution but I doubt it would have been enough to make a major difference.Perhaps in the 20s there might evolve a Trotskyist inspired Mexican communist party which might influence subsequent events.
 
I remember from the Issac Deutscher "Prophet" biography of Trotsky is that he was almost put on a boat for Havana instead of New York. Trotsky tried to avoid this at all costs, he felt New York was a much more important place for him to be.I could picture a TL where he finds himself in Mexico in 1917 instead of New York. He may have had some influence on the Mexican Revolution but I doubt it would have been enough to make a major difference.Perhaps in the 20s there might evolve a Trotskyist inspired Mexican communist party which might influence subsequent events.

Yes, he tells this story in his memories. In 1915 or 1916 (I don't remember the exact date) he was expelled from France and entered Spain, where the authorities had been already informed by the french police. So he was detained in Madrid after some weeks and sent to Cadiz in order to put him in a boat to La Habana even some weeks latter. It's also a funny passage the way he tells it. Another thing he tells is that at the time he didn't speak spanish, but he started to study it during his staying at Cadiz. Certainly in Mexico in 1940 he spoke it.

That's the point, the only place he wanted to go in the Americas was New York. So, even if he doesn't manage to avoid the travel to La Habana, he would try to enter the USA from Cuba ASAP. But yes, the Cuban authorities could expell him to Mexico, why not, though probably, I guess, their first option would be the USA (it's closer).

I agree with the rest, some minor influence in some leftist enlighted sectors is possible. Again, in this scenario, once the Russian Revolution starts he would leave Mexico for Russia.
 
Mexico was in civil war during this time. The "Mexican Revolution" lasted from 1910-1920 with some fighting continuing until 1929. If Trotsky managed to inspire a Communist seizure of power during this time, the US would not be "too preoccupied" to intervene in Mexico even if it was fighting in Europe.

The most likely scenario is that the US aidx the non-Communist factions. You would have all of the social conservatives including the Catholic Church against the Communists. You have most of the democratic liberals. You also have a significant chance of detaching most or many of the socialists and peasantry if they are democratic. If in dire straits, the US sends a significant expeditionary force into Mexico - say a few cavalary or infantry divisions.

The US doesn't need to do the bulk of the fighting. It only needs to support the natural anti-Communists in Mexico. Mexico is not some far away, unknown land where Americans will wonder why US troops are fighting. It's in the US' backyard that allows for easy power projection.

The likely end to this probably won't be too different than what happened IOTL.
 
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