Trotsky lives, what is the impact on leftist ideas and discourse?

[xie323]

What if Leon Trotsky survived his assassination attempt? Either he received a tip that Ageloff was seeing a NKVD agent and arranges to somehow get rid of Merceder, or he was able to avoid getting icepicked and overpower Merceder.

Obviously there is no chance he would be allowed to return to the USSR or take any sort of leadership role anywhere, but what is the impact of his survival on the development of leftist ideas and discourse?

Personally I think that if he lived longer, assuming he carries on the whole "degenerated worker's state" argument, Trotskyism would simply not exist instead of being a largely irrelevant fringe movement. I think Trotsky's death actually helped his reputation on the left. Had he lived on longer, I think his views might be seen as tankie-lite and way too enabling of the USSR even as he criticized Stalinist totalitarianism or too ineffectual in any sort of anti-Stalinist left resistance. So rather than an fringe movement digging further holes and becoming more fringer than what it is via perpertual spitting, there would be one large split between the orthotrots and the third campists that would totally finish the movement.

Third Camp analysis will be even more vigorous in cutting any and all ties with Bolshevism. Assuming he adapts State Capitalist theory, Tony Cliff will cut any ties he has with Trotskyism. I think they might actually have some mainstream influence depending on how sucessful they are able to cut all ties with Bolshevism.

As for Trotsky and the orthotrots that remain with him after the split, I can see them try to, depending on how long he lives, influence the politics of Maoist China, Yugoslavia, to be more independent from the USSR. If he lives to the mid 50s, expect to see support for Hungarian revolution as well as push for Cuba to be more independent from the USSR if he lives to see it. Through this probably won't amount to anything. As soon as he dies expect the surviving Orthotrots to become either Pabloist, borderline tankies(ie: Sparts), or full on Tankies of the WWP/PSL variety(essentially the WWP and PSL are Marxist Leninists with no opinion of the Stalin vs. Trotsky meme and dosen't act to critical towards the latter).

tl;dr: Essentially not much with regards to general irrelevance, except third campism may have more political influence by cutting all ties with Bolshevism and we have a lot of PSL/WWP-esque parties running around in the tankie/Maoist fringe that are descended from Orthotrotskyism.

 

[David T]

Would Trotsky have maintained the "degenerate workers' state" position to the end? FWIW, in OTL even his widow, Natalia Sedova would ultimately break with this formulation, writing to the leaders of the Fourth International in 1951 that "Obsessed by old and outlived formulas, you continue to regard the Stalinist state as a workers’ state. I cannot and will not follow you in this." https://www.marxists.org/history/etol/newspape/socialistvoice/natalia38.html

 

[Maeglin]

There's the obvious point that Stalin would likely try another attempts on Trotsky's life.

If he somehow evades these too, Trotsky has zero influence until 1956. Unlike Orwell, he can't conveniently be invoked by anti-communists, while Western Communism remains monolithic in support of Moscow, so he's basically a fringe figure.

Once past 1956 though, opportunities open up, as Western Communists start tearing up their membership cards. If he can make it to the 1960s or even 1970s, his sheer longevity enables him to become the Grand Old Man of the revolutionary Left (Westerners attracted by Maoism in this period might well embrace Trotskyism instead). Yeah, he might be seen as tankie-lite, but that didn't dissuade Mao's little fan club.

 

[David T]

I agree that if Mercader had failed, that would no more dissuade Stalin from further atttempts than the failure of the May 1940 raid on Trotsky's villa did in OTL. Stalin just has to get lucky once...

Though actually the cruelest revenge would be to let Trotsky live and see almost all his prophecies falsified (the War did *not* being the end of either capitalism or Stalinism, social democracy did *not* collapse, etc.) About the only predicton of Trotsky that came true was, alas, the Holocaust. ("between the Warta and the Volga there live seven million Jews — in the coming war they will be annihilated first." https://books.google.com/books?id=XBmD_vHQsMUC&pg=PA117)

 

[ar-pharazon]

I'd still be interested in reading his analyses and writings especially on WW2 and its aftermath.

Trotsky's death created a martyr figure for the anti Stalinist left to rally around.

If he lived to see the beginning of the Cold War-maybe his writings and attitude on this would affect how western communists viewed the Soviet Union especially after Stalin dies.

 

[thekingsguard]

Picking Trotsky's brain would be interesting

 

[ar-pharazon]

I'd be curious as to what he thought about nuclear weapons, operation barbarossa, the end of the British and French empires, and so on.

Even if one disagrees with Trotsky he was quite an enjoyable writer who wrote very insightful analyses and articles.

 

[BigBlueBox]

Picking Trotsky's brain would be interesting

This is one underappreciated pun.

 

[ar-pharazon]

Trotsky was if nothing else an extremely smart man and was capable of delivering piercing analysis and commentary.

I'd be curious as to what he thought of the Cold War.

 

[GiantMonkeyMan]

He would have finished his biography/appraisal of Stalin.

 

[Major Major]

Picking Trotsky's brain would be interesting

This is one underappreciated pun.

If I may quote myself?

“It was all a misunderstanding. Stalin figured the Nazis would turn on him, sooner or later. He said to Beria, his secret police chief, ‘Comrade Lavrenti Pavlovich, whatever his betrayals, Trotsky is a first-rate military leader. We need to pick his brains for an answer to this dilemma.’ So Beria had it done.”

Thank you. Oh yes, and buy the book, pretty please? Available on Amazon with the rest of the series for a quite reasonable price.

 

[Maeglin]

If he lived to see the beginning of the Cold War-maybe his writings and attitude on this would affect how western communists viewed the Soviet Union especially after Stalin dies.

As I said, 1956 is the watershed, since that's Hungary and the Secret Speech. Trotsky would be 77, but he could take advantage.

(It's also not impossible that Cold War America decides that it might be useful having some inter-Communist squabbling. Trotsky isn't Orwell, but Trotskyism can siphon off radicals who might otherwise take funding from Moscow).

 

[ar-pharazon]

Yeah but Trotsky is still a Bolshevik through and through-he isn't Orwell or some of the other leftists of the period.

He's still an internationalist and would still be anti imperialist and against the US's actions in the Cold War.

If Trotsky remains a marginal figure then this isn't really a problem-what happens though when he has a large following? People reading his works and writing letters to him-people who consider themselves Bolsheviks and also anti Stalinist.

The CIA would have a big headache-support Trotskyism to divert western communist sympathy and support for the Soviet Union but also support indirectly Bolsheviki internationalist Marxism.

One of the big things was 1956 and the secret speech-it shook a lot of communists and leftists in the west-in fact I think it's arguable this led to the left's fragmentation and demoralization.

If Trotsky remains an alternative pole to Stalin and the USSR-even he is an old man in exile-then he is would still be perceived as a threat to US interests.

 

[CountPeter]

Could Trotsky theoretically return to the USSR?

Providing Kruschev keeps the secret speech the same, he effectively (from memory) relegitimised Trotskyism as an ideological debate rather than a movement that made one an enemy of the people.

I'm not suggesting by any means that he could have become leader in his own right, but by the point of the secret speech a lot of revolutionary left movements internationally were Trotskyist, so it could be useful to bring him back.

 

[GiantMonkeyMan]

Could Trotsky theoretically return to the USSR?

Providing Kruschev keeps the secret speech the same, he effectively (from memory) relegitimised Trotskyism as an ideological debate rather than a movement that made one an enemy of the people.

I'm not suggesting by any means that he could have become leader in his own right, but by the point of the secret speech a lot of revolutionary left movements internationally were Trotskyist, so it could be useful to bring him back.

The only major Bolshevik figure that wasn't exonerated was Trotsky. It's almost possible to suggest that Trotsky being alive would prevent Khrushchev from having the confidence to make the speech in the first place. The Trotsky of exile was quite consistently against the bureaucracy and party officials, calling for a revitalisation of workers democracy. He would have been an anathema to the party willing to send tanks into East Europe to suppress workers movements.

 

[BigBlueBox]

If Trotsky had survived, how would he have justified his role in crushing the Kronstadt rebellion and other democratic leftist movements?

 

[RousseauX]

I wonder how Trotsky would have interacted with the Communist parties of the 3rd Comintern on the long run

iirc before we was killed he was ready to go testify before US congress against Stalinist Communist parties in the west, I wonder if he had lived he would have ironically enough be a strong fighter against Communist influences in the west because he views western parties as puppets of Stalin

 

[RousseauX]

Could Trotsky theoretically return to the USSR?

Providing Kruschev keeps the secret speech the same, he effectively (from memory) relegitimised Trotskyism as an ideological debate rather than a movement that made one an enemy of the people.

I'm not suggesting by any means that he could have become leader in his own right, but by the point of the secret speech a lot of revolutionary left movements internationally were Trotskyist, so it could be useful to bring him back.

No, he would have being a dangerous political force since everyone in the Khrushchev generation of Soviet leadership were complicit in Stalin's crimes

 

[LizardLieutenant]

If Stalin doesn't get him later, the CIA probably assassinates him.

If he manages to survive he might indeed be able to attract some of the support that in OTL went to Maoism. Possibly negates OTL Trotskyism's development into little more than particularly aggressive pamphlet-pushers by giving them a stronger base of support at the expense of the Maoists.

He might play some role in some Latin American revolution, if he manages to survive Stalin and the CIA.

If Trotsky had survived, how would he have justified his role in crushing the Kronstadt rebellion and other democratic leftist movements?

He would justify it as necessities of the civil war, as with how the rest of War Communism - instituting centralized management, destroying the power of the workers to strike and manage their own affairs, and the ban on factions - was justified.