Trotsky and Soviet Space program

Let's assume Trotsky somehow gains power in the USSR, and somehow, saner minds in the Soviet government somehow convince him not to launch a simultaneous World revolution, thus ensuring the survival of the USSR. Would he support a space program on the scale of the OTL Soviet program? Would he build it up more, would he pay less head to it?
 
Simultaneous world revolution was never actually a part of Trotskys thought. That's just a slandering of permanent revolution that Stalin heavily pushed. Permanent revolution says (rightly) that Russia could not survive as an isolated Socialist started in a capitalist world, and so must put revolutionary expansion as the key goal of international policy.

This is then turned into "simultaneous world revolution" as a way to imply that it was either socialism in one country or suicidal adventurism. Its pretty obviously not going to be the safest policy, but considering the turbulence coming in the Great Depression it has potential to lay the groundwork for revolution in Germany atleast (in Germany it's easy to say the Commintern most bungled things, so Trotskys policy atleast has the chance of working out).

But on this actual question. I suspect it would end up subordinated to the space program of whatever more advanced countries go red.
 
The most likely idea for how Tortsky ends up head guy is that Lenin lives longer and Trotsky is his right hand man for long enough that his "heir apparent" status outweighs his political weakness.

As mentioned, Trotsky didn't want to spread revolution willy-nilly. Indeed, part of Bolshevik ideology was that revolution can only spread to countries with the right level of political and economic development - which, when you think about it, can be used to give you plenty of reasons to NOT intervene in your neighbours and have friendly relationships with whatever republican democracies, monarchies or dictatorships might rule them.

Trotsky WAS a believer in trade and openness. Stalin's impulse to scientifically isolate the USSR REALLY hurt Soviet science in the 30s. Without that happening, Soviet scientists continue traveling abroad to conferences, sharing their results, seeing the experiments of German, British and French scientists, continue getting international prizes for their work. Foreign scientists continue to be able to travel to the USSR to work, to have conferences etc. More open trade means both a more dependent USSR but also a USSR that modernizes faster, that has better quality goods overall and a generally more efficient economy.

Trotsky would also be weaker politically. This means the USSR never leaves the collective leadership system as it did under Stalin and (somewhat) under Khrushchev. The country would be ruled by committee. That means things would be less focused - both good and bad. No persecution of millions just because one man feels under the weather one day.

On the other hand, the tyranny of middle-managers is rightly feared across the globe.

Almost certainly the Soviets develop a space program - the Bolsheviks were major tech fetishists. If the "Trotskyite" USSR avoids WW2 then it is quite possible that they'd have the level of development to start a serious space program in the 40s.

It would be fun to see a friendly space race between such a USSR and a Weimar Germany as the two used rockets and space exploration to reclaim the prestige each country had lost after WW1.

fasquardon
 
I would actually dispute that, Lenin's decisive break oth old theory was that Russia was incapable of socialism. And this was later codified into the idea of revolutionary class coalition of the poor peasants and urban working class. Which is a configuration broad enough it could include most countries. This was itself based on the theory that development in industrialized countries had reached the point that all question of premature revolution were moot. The world had the potential for socialism in their eyes.
 
Trotsky WAS a believer in trade and openness. Stalin's impulse to scientifically isolate the USSR REALLY hurt Soviet science in the 30s. Without that happening, Soviet scientists continue traveling abroad to conferences, sharing their results, seeing the experiments of German, British and French scientists, continue getting international prizes for their work. Foreign scientists continue to be able to travel to the USSR to work, to have conferences etc. More open trade means both a more dependent USSR but also a USSR that modernizes faster, that has better quality goods overall and a generally more efficient economy.

Trotsky would also be weaker politically. This means the USSR never leaves the collective leadership system as it did under Stalin and (somewhat) under Khrushchev. The country would be ruled by committee. That means things would be less focused - both good and bad. No persecution of millions just because one man feels under the weather one day.

On the other hand, the tyranny of middle-managers is rightly feared across the globe.

Almost certainly the Soviets develop a space program - the Bolsheviks were major tech fetishists. If the "Trotskyite" USSR avoids WW2 then it is quite possible that they'd have the level of development to start a serious space program in the 40s.

It would be fun to see a friendly space race between such a USSR and a Weimar Germany as the two used rockets and space exploration to reclaim the prestige each country had lost after WW1.

fasquardon


There were rocket clubs in the USSR before World War II, inspired by the works of Tsiolkovsky. Many major members of the Soviet Space program (Sergei Korolev, Valentin Glushko) were members of a state rocket research organization. So, if a Trotskyist USSR patronized the sciences (which it probably would), they could begin a space program.
 
I would actually dispute that, Lenin's decisive break oth old theory was that Russia was incapable of socialism. And this was later codified into the idea of revolutionary class coalition of the poor peasants and urban working class. Which is a configuration broad enough it could include most countries. This was itself based on the theory that development in industrialized countries had reached the point that all question of premature revolution were moot. The world had the potential for socialism in their eyes.

You're right. But just as the Bolsheviks can decide "the world is ripe for revolution" they can also use the same theories to decide "the world is unripe for revolution". In other words, the theories after the revolutions in the 20s were so confused, they could justify any action the leadership wanted to take.

There were rocket clubs in the USSR before World War II, inspired by the works of Tsiolkovsky. Many major members of the Soviet Space program (Sergei Korolev, Valentin Glushko) were members of a state rocket research organization. So, if a Trotskyist USSR patronized the sciences (which it probably would), they could begin a space program.

Just so.

Also, the weaker central government may mean that Korolev (among others) is never sent to the gulag. This would probably give the man a few more years of life and may mean that he has a completely different relationship with Glushko (Glushko was Korolev's boss when he was a prisoner-scientist after he was taken out of the Gulag itself).

So if Korolev and Glushko rise to the same heights they did in OTL, there could be a goodly number of small changes (most for the better, IMO).

Of course, the weaker government may also mean that the prison-camp system gets fed even more men as hysteria drives the Soviet bureaucracy to do more and more to counter a mythical counter-revolution. But it is hard to imagine how anyone - even a committee - could imprison more people than Stalin...

fasquardon
 
You're right. But just as the Bolsheviks can decide "the world is ripe for revolution" they can also use the same theories to decide "the world is unripe for revolution". In other words, the theories after the revolutions in the 20s were so confused, they could justify any action the leadership wanted to take.



Just so.

Also, the weaker central government may mean that Korolev (among others) is never sent to the gulag. This would probably give the man a few more years of life and may mean that he has a completely different relationship with Glushko (Glushko was Korolev's boss when he was a prisoner-scientist after he was taken out of the Gulag itself).

So if Korolev and Glushko rise to the same heights they did in OTL, there could be a goodly number of small changes (most for the better, IMO).

Of course, the weaker government may also mean that the prison-camp system gets fed even more men as hysteria drives the Soviet bureaucracy to do more and more to counter a mythical counter-revolution. But it is hard to imagine how anyone - even a committee - could imprison more people than Stalin...

fasquardon

Sooner or later Trotsky winds up as "Stalin Lite" or someone else does. It was already headed in that direction. Stalin completed the revolution Lenin started. Lenin was absolute dictator of the USSR , whoever takes over for him would eventually be that as well.
 
Sooner or later Trotsky winds up as "Stalin Lite" or someone else does. It was already headed in that direction. Stalin completed the revolution Lenin started. Lenin was absolute dictator of the USSR , whoever takes over for him would eventually be that as well.

No argument. Alot of what we think of as "Stalinism" seems to have been the simple momentum of the revolution as well as the country as a whole. But I think "Stalin lite" is a big improvement over "full-fat Stalin" nonetheless.

fasquardon
 
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