Timeline Proposal
Jeff Pearce, in his book (https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1510718656/) about the Second Italo-Ethopian War wrote:

The Ethiopian War had its own unchecked “facts’ that created a few great yarns, but it never gave birth to its own legend. And yet the ingredients were all there for the kind of romanticism that would attach itself to the Spanish Civil War: it had a cast of rogues, a reasonable supply of heroes and clowns, battles aplenty, and it even straddled two ages, modern and medieval. It had a genuine bard in Langston Hughes. All this wasn’t enough, and it comes down to a very simple reason. For the Spanish Civil War, the good guys could show up.

This was not true in the Ethiopian war. Fewer than 200 volunteers would be able to make it to Ethiopia in OTL. But… what if there was a timeline in which this was not true?

There are basically 3 Points of Divergence.

1. France after, after quelling the 1897 rebellion in Madagascar did not strip the Imerina monarchy of its figurehead role. This will be important later.

2. Marcus Garvey is more careful/diligent with his Black Star Line shipping company, and so is never arrested, increasing the prestige and power of the "Back to Africa" movement in comparison to OTL. This makes it so Liberia does not prevent Garvey's organization from settling large numbers of African-American settlers in Liberia, as they did OTL. UNIA-ACL becomes a powerful force in Liberian, and pan-African politics worldwide.

3. Britain is slightly more helpful to Ethiopia because of PoD 2, since Black organizations in the colonies are more powerful and coordinate successfully with British leftists and liberals to lobby for Britain to not join the arms embargo against Ethiopia and Italy with France.
 
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No, sorry but Benny will send simply more soldiers and material as he can't allow another defeat in Ethiopia; the only way that Italy can lose is the UK blocking Suez but not only it risk a war but at the moment their attention is devoted to Germany and Italy is important to keep her down.
The moment the war started, the end result was never ever in doubt whatever they hoped against hope; sure this pod can create a more problematic occupation but it can also bring Benny to keep Graziani in charge and not use a more diplomatic approach...and this mean simply a lot more Ethiopian dead and i mean a looooot more
 
I think someone did a hearts of iron after action report with a similar presence.

Britain sets up checks at the Suez to enforce the embargo, one diplomatic incident involving a disguised ship later and it's war, and the rest as they say, like fascist Italy from 1937 onwards ITTL, is history.
 
Chapter 1: Dreams, Railways, and Armaments
(Well, here goes nothing.)

Chapter 1: Dreams, Railways, and Armaments.



28th Tikemet 1923 (7th November 1930.)

Armed men went forth.

Most of the men were draped in shammas, the traditional white long cotton robe of Ethiopia, but a few wore more modern khaki uniforms in a European style. Most went barefoot, their feet callused against the hardscrabble rocks and bushes of the hills.

Some were armed with rifles, but these were often relics, and the variety of ammunition meant reliable ammo supply was an impossibility. Most had spears or swords, held high proudly along buffalo shields that, although they wouldn’t block bullets, would block the bayonet thrusts and spears of the colonial irregulars, who like the Ethiopians themselves, came from the Horn of Africa. Almost it could be a scene from the colonial clashes of the 1880s and 1890s. The brave warriors of the Empire swept forward, ready to bowl over the invaders with their sheer numbers and courage…

And then the tanks rolled in. And the planes roared overhead, dropping bombs and poison gases told of in stories from the Great War. And the warriors died, and planes with special sprayers spewed a continuous stream of fine, death dealing rain that poisoned the women, children, cattle, rivers, lakes, and pastures until all of God’s Ethiopia was a desert, and the people died helpless.

***

From this nightmare; the Emperor awoke. Five nights. He thought.

Five nights since his coronation, and five nights in which he had had this dream or others like it. Rumors of rebellion, plots, the endless pointless ambitions of his nobles; these all haunted Haile Sellesaie’s waking moments. But asleep, he dreamed of the true threat.

One day, within the next few years, another European army would come to try to make Ethiopia a colony. He had toured Europe, seen the trenches and battlefields of the Great War, seen airplanes, modern weapons, and tanks. He knew the threat well, better than the majority of his nobles. The military leaders and feudal magnates of the Empire had learned the wrong lesson. While the European powers had absorbed the lessons of the Great War; lessons of logistics, transportation and mechanized warfare, the Empire still believed that the bravery, faith and discipline of their soldiers would prove superior.

No longer would the courage and the faith of the Ethiopians be enough to repel ant enemy. The lesson of Adwa, that courage and an unrelenting assault could break a European army, would not work in the new war to come, whatever form it took.

He had faith… faith in both God and in the principles of collective security embodied in the League of Nations. But faith alone was a poor defense against the merciless weapons of modern industry. His people would need weapons of their own. His Empire held great riches, but a wealth of resources was of little use without the modern industry to utilize them. He needed a way to create that industry, to use the colonizer’s own weapons against them. To this end, there were potential allies; ones that the late Empress had refused to listen to, despite his own energetic protests to the contrary.

There was a group that claimed to stand for all Africans throughout the world. This claim seemed ludicrous to Haile Selesse. Africa was home to many nations, many peoples, with their own ways, religions and varying degrees of bellicosity and temperament. Many of this group were from the Americas or the Caribbean, and knew little of Africa, seeing it on the whole as unwashed masses in need of civilizing. The fact that this was exactly how the average white man saw Africa was deeply ironic to the Emperor. And the group’s history of distrust towards all non-Africans was troublesome to the internationally-minded Emperor. But the UNIA-ACL[1], or “Garvey Movement” as it had become popularly known had done great things in the only other “independent” African nation in the world, Liberia.

Settlers of the Garvey Movement had swollen the coastal Americo-Liberian population from about 10,000 to just over 70,000. The UNIA-ACL and especially their Negro Factories Corporation had worked alongside the American Firestone Rubber Company; the Dutch mining interest NEEP[2] and the Liberian government themselves to build railroads, paved roads, the beginnings of a proper port in Monrovia, and even a small domestic arms industry. The fact that the UNIA was able to work with European companies shows that they are willing to overlook rhetoric if needs be. They aren’t as foolish as their image suggests. They have grown wiser over the years, more able to work with reality, as opposed to their fantasies.

Although the majority of the work had been done by Firestone and NEEP, the Negro Factories Corporation had gained a great measure of international prestige and technical skill, and now boasted of having the world’s only black-owned railroad company and arms manufacturer. Even if most of this arms company’s products were merely improved copies of older European rifles.

There was also news that, while it held potentially ominous meanings, still held some promise.

It was said that the UNIA had forced the True Whig party, for long the only force in Liberian politics out of their complacency, and the True Whig Party now competed with the UNIA affiliated Black Cross, Black Star Party in generally free and fair elections. It was even said that the Universal African Legion, the paramilitary force of the UNIA, had aided the Frontier Force in the latest suppression of inland tribal war. Perhaps they would be willing to send military advisors? Many of my generals refuse to listen to white European advisors about modern war.

And even out of Liberia, the UNIA had influence. Where the European powers permitted, the UNIA founded chapters, vocational centers and churches amongst the natives of their African colonies. Although many European nations, especially the Belgians and even more especially the Italians, distrusted the UNIA chapterhouses as potential sources of unrest, the UNIA was always careful to keep any protests limited to strictly non-violent actions. The Black Star Shipping Line had grown from a joke of a company with three run-down hulks to a successful company operating 24 vessels and carrying goods and passengers to Liberia, America and the British and French colonies of Africa and the Caribbean.

Yet despite all this, Zewditu had refused to even consider the notion of allowing UNIA into the Empire, having developed an immediate distaste for the firebrand that was Marcus Garvey. And at his claims to be “Provisional President of Africa.” Although the priest Garvey had brought with them had probably been enough offense for the pious Zewditu. Well, enough of that now. The Emperor arose from his bed.

Enough of these dark dreams and fearful nonsense. The Empress’ way need not be mine. He would dispel these terrors; arm his people against the enemies all around them with aid that did not need to come with strings attached. Even if the aid that the UNIA can bring to my country is lesser than that of a European power, it is less dangerous, and far, far cheaper than French or British aid might be. Servants, flunkies and the rest of his regular entourage surrounded the Emperor, and he began his day in his normal manner. A few moments later; he strode out the doors of the palace into a new day, full of God’s bright sunlight.

***

The first of the Emperor’s meetings with the UNIA-ACL officials was with the Dutch-Negro Railroad Partnership, which had together constructed a railroad leading from Monrovia in Liberia to the iron and diamond rich Bomi Hills and now proposed to expand Ethiopia’s sole railroad, the French-built line linking Djibouti and Addis Ababa, to Jimma. This would provide direct access of the most productive coffee plantations in Ethiopia to the sea. Trade is a blessing of god, especially for our coffers. Taxing the nobility was often impossible. And taxing the peasantry too heavily was cruelty, and likely to induce mass revolt and famine. That left trade. A small tax on the coffee trade would bring more hard currency to the Empire. Hard currency that could be used to trade with the Europeans, America and Japan.

But firstly, there was a man named James Monroe Jones, a wealthy Liberian investor who was the founder of Frontier Force Arms, the Liberian arms manufacturing company. It was this man that the Emperor would meet first.

James Monroe Jones was a tall, lightly skinned Americo-Liberian. Broad, stocky and with a great beard, he towered over the Emperor, but he still bowed low in a gesture of respect to the Emperor and entourage.

“Imperial Majesty, it is a great privilege and honor to meet with you today, and I hope that we can come to an arrangement that will mutual benefit our two nations and improve the security of your state.”

The Emperor accepted this with grace, and his eyes turned to a table that had been dragged out into one of the yards of the palace. On it rested four weapons. Two rifles, what looked to be an automatic pistol, and…

One of them in particular drew his eye. A machine gun? This may be more beneficial than I thought…

Monroe-Jones laughed, a deep sound from his belly. “I see that you’ve spied the latest product. That, majesty, is a copy of the Browning Automatic Rifle. Like the two rifles, it is chambered in the same cartridge, the 7.92×57mm Mauser. This greatly simplifies any ammunition concerns.” Turning to the two rifles he said, “These are copies of the Krag–Jørgensen rifle and the Gewehr 88. They, and the BAR, have been modified to be more mud and dust resistant. The BAR is regrettably, a bit of an experiment, we have yet to begin to produce it in bulk. But I have brought 2000 of each of the rifles as a gift for your guards, and I hope that you are impressed enough with them to allow the construction of a factory in Addis Ababa, and perhaps Jimma, or Gore. Ethiopia is after all, a much larger country, with a much larger army than Liberia. Your country is a much larger market for my company.”

“This is the regrettable truth.” The Emperor said. After more small talk, a detailed demonstration of the weapons followed, followed again by a demonstration of the original versions of the weapons. To the Emperor, and more importantly, to the White-Russian advisor Feodor Konovalov, the weapons appeared identical. This matched previously heard stories of the Frontier Force Arms company’s decent quality.

“Excellent, truly excellent, Mr. Jones. I can see that the praises of your company I have heard are not exaggerated. I understand then, that the Government of Liberia wishes to sponsor a factory of yours in exchange for some trade concessions. But this is a matter best left for diplomats and ministers, not one for the open air. I thank you for your demonstration. I can forsee no reason why I will not allow you to build at least one of your factories.” We both know how desperately the Empire needs an arms factory. Polite goodbyes were exchanged, and the Emperor departed. Now the Railroad representatives.

As the Emperor walked to the building where the railroad officials were waiting, he smiled despite himself. It seems that there was more hope for his country than he thought, at least when it came to acquiring modern arms.

[1] Universal Negro Improvement Association and African Communities League (Marcus Garvey rivals FDR for the acronym fever.)

[2] Noord Europeesche Ertz en Pyriet Maatschappy (…I refuse categorically to type that out again.)
 
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Ah, really? If I may ask, which parts?
Mostly Marcus Garvey/UNIA going to Liberia, although in this TL he was never deported from the United States, since he was far more careful managing the UNIA business ventures in general, and particularly the Black Star Line, and they actually mostly succeeded. And also the UNIA ideology has actually *softened* some in this TL, rather than become a form of fascism as in Stand Up and Stride. They work jointly with Firestone, Dutch industrial interests like NEEP and the Liberian government, and are much more "Black Nationalist" than "Black Separatist" as in OTL.
 
Mostly Marcus Garvey/UNIA going to Liberia, although in this TL he was never deported from the United States, since he was far more careful managing the UNIA business ventures in general, and particularly the Black Star Line, and they actually mostly succeeded. And also the UNIA ideology has actually *softened* some in this TL, rather than become a form of fascism as in Stand Up and Stride. They work jointly with Firestone, Dutch industrial interests like NEEP and the Liberian government, and are much more "Black Nationalist" than "Black Separatist" as in OTL.
That's an interesting route to take - will there be any future chapters concerning the UNIA in Liberia?
 
That's an interesting route to take - will there be any future chapters concerning the UNIA in Liberia?
Yes, there will probably be some "flashbacks" as well detailing how the UNIA settlements in Liberia went in the 1920s. I don't know if you caught it but they have a political party affiliated with them in Liberia, the Black Star-Black Cross Party that actually competes mostly fairly with the True Whig party, making Liberia a two party state. I'll give a blatant hint and say that it may not be Edwin Barclay replacing Charles King.
 
Yes, there will probably be some "flashbacks" as well detailing how the UNIA settlements in Liberia went in the 1920s. I don't know if you caught it but they have a political party affiliated with them in Liberia, the Black Star-Black Cross Party that actually competes mostly fairly with the True Whig party, making Liberia a two party state. I'll give a blatant hint and say that it may not be Edwin Barclay replacing Charles King.
Do they attempt to establish a similar arm in Ethiopia? I have a feeling it may be the result of compromise with the Emperor allowing the UNIA such influence in Ethiopia.
 
Do they attempt to establish a similar arm in Ethiopia? I have a feeling it may be the result of compromise with the Emperor allowing the UNIA such influence in Ethiopia.
You have good feelings. :closedeyesmile:Perhaps when proper parliamentary politics come to Ethiopia. In this timeline that UNIA had already attempted inroads in the 1920s during the reign of Empress Zewditu, but largely failed due to:

1. Personality clashes between Marcus Garvey and Zewditu.
2. Difficulty in reaching Ethiopia, since the Black Star Line at the time in this did not possess many vessels suited for voyages of such a length.
3. A general preference among the heavily westernized UNIA members for investment in Liberia. Ethiopia was of course, seen as a sort of promised land and admired for never falling to foreign domination, but at the end of the day an already westernized republic was seen as more receptive for UNIA's activities.
 
You have good feelings. :closedeyesmile:Perhaps when proper parliamentary politics come to Ethiopia. In this timeline that UNIA had already attempted inroads in the 1920s during the reign of Empress Zewditu, but largely failed due to:

1. Personality clashes between Marcus Garvey and Zewditu.
2. Difficulty in reaching Ethiopia, since the Black Star Line at the time in this did not possess many vessels suited for voyages of such a length.
3. A general preference among the heavily westernized UNIA members for investment in Liberia. Ethiopia was of course, seen as a sort of promised land and admired for never falling to foreign domination, but at the end of the day an already westernized republic was seen as more receptive for UNIA's activities.
Hmmm, it's a damn shame that Zewditu was a reactionary both IOTL and this one's - might've been able to modernize Ethiopia earlier but hey, what can you do?
 
Great start. Unfortunately for the emperor you can only modernize so much in 5 years so I suspect defeating the Italians will still be quite the task. Course a stronger Ethiopia that holds out for longer will probably do wonders for convincing foreign nations to pitch in, so I’d say they got a good shot. (Even though we already know that Ethiopia will win)
 
Great start. Unfortunately for the emperor you can only modernize so much in 5 years so I suspect defeating the Italians will still be quite the task. Course a stronger Ethiopia that holds out for longer will probably do wonders for convincing foreign nations to pitch in, so I’d say they got a good shot. (Even though we already know that Ethiopia will win)

As said defeat the italians is a no go unless a litteral miracle or the big guys decide to intervene and frankly that magnificent bastard of Selassiè basically had done the max possible for modernize the country in OTL; Abyssinia was more a feudal nation than a modern one and the emperor worked even before his ascension to bring her to modernity but he had to fight a lot of resistance from the entrenched nobility.
The best possible option in this situation is Benny accepting a Hoare-Laval type of agreement so to declare victory and save face because the place has been an harder nut to break and frankly has been too much costly for the italian treasure...but a repeat of Adwa? No, he can't permit that (plus as usual people forget that after Adua Italy basically reconquered all the ethiopian territory previously occupied and signed the treaty because the effort was too costly and politically not very popular...but fascist Italy is different from liberal Italy)
 
No, he can't permit that (plus as usual people forget that after Adua Italy basically reconquered all the ethiopian territory previously occupied and signed the treaty because the effort was too costly and politically not very popular...but fascist Italy is different from liberal Italy)
Which Ethiopian territory was reoccupied and conquered?
 
I, obviously, disagree. The Ethiopians already scored many victories in the war even in OTL, like at the Christmas offensive. An Ethiopia with a much larger supply of modern weaponry could quite handily hold back the Italians. Especially since this TL's Ethiopia will have a domestic arms industry than the OTL version thanks to the PoD giving Liberia a native arms industry, meaning the weapons embargo will not be as ornerous. Even if all this industry does is make bootleg copies and unlicensed variants of older weapons. Especially since they will try to get all their weapons on one cartridge, which will make their ammunition supply a lot better.

To address some of your comments in full:

"Selassiè basically had done the max possible for modernize the country in OTL" This is true, but the Emperor has options available to him that weren't in OTL. Liberia and the UNIA and the Black Nationalist sort of movements are much more powerful than in OTL, and are willing to help industrialize Ethiopia without the conditions and strings that European powers would have with any "help" they gave.

"big guys decide to intervene." & "the place has been an harder nut to break and frankly has been too much costly for the italian treasure" Keep reading, you're on the right track.
 
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