Tripolar Europe 1914

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Deleted member 1487

How is a tripolar Europe arrived at by 1914? The poles would be France-Russia, Germany-Ottoman Empire, and Austria-Hungary-Britain. Other powers are wild cards.

Could this be done? What effects would it have on the outcome of events in previous and later years?
 
How about something along the lines of:

Napoleon doesn't invade Russia and manages to hold together an Empire that lasts for 100 years. By not invading Russia, the two countries develop close ties, culminating in an alliance.

Prussia conquers the Confederation of the Rhine and makes an alliance with the Ottomans.

Great Britain, Austria, and Hungary form a block of alliances as a sort of continuation of the original coalitions.
 
Reminds me of the AHN Universe, where on the Eastern Front around the Black Sea it was Austro-Hungary vs Sweden vs Ottoman Empire.
 
France-Russia, Germany-Ottoman Empire, and Austria-Hungary-Britain.

Well, Germany has the weakest ally, and Britain is bound on the continent without gaining sufficiently. If Britain has to engage on the continent, you must give them a strong alliance there. One major power is not sufficient.

So how about that: Britain remains in splendid isolation, and thus forms your third party on its own. Let's say the American civil war is avoided, an Anglo-American commonwealth arises as a global power which opposes France-Russia for colonial reasons and Germany-Austria for colonial reasons and some weird fleet building program.
 

MrP

Banned
I can see an Anglo-Italian contretemps over something in the Med leading to an agreement (though perhaps not a full-blown alliance) with A-H, so long as France is not an option. This also removes from Britain the obligation of engaging an army on the continent. If the likely battleground is the Italian peninsular, and Italy is unsupported by the other two power blocs, it would be likely that the RN would do the work at sea, and the KuK Armee the fighting ashore. This neatly removes Britain from experiencing any major changes to the general relationship between her army and navy.

France and Russia would be as IOTL in response to the FPW and that Three Emperors' League falling apart again. Then one has to engineer bad feeling between one or both of them and the British. This would be easier if France had a larger population (or Germany a smaller one), since she could then stand on a more equal footing in a prospective rematch.

Germany and the Ottomans is a bit more complicated. If Germany wished to interfere with the movements of the British in the Med, then the Italians would be a more natural choice, since they are less confined geographically. So it should be something else. Perhaps oil? They did have good links IOTL anyway, with the head of I Corps being a German officer (IIRC), and the Berlin-Baghdad Railway, and so on.
 
Hmmmm, I always like to think shifting up the Congress of Berlin is the best way to dramatically change German (and thus European) misfortunes post 1914. Have something shift Bismarck’s strategy into supporting Russian ventures and many of the articles of the Treaty of San Stefano. The ripples of such a shift from baby sitter to being seen as a Slavic ally would be enormous.

First and most importantly there most likely will be no Duel Alliance. Supporting and siding with Russia will absolutely go a long way in angering and offending the worthless decrepit Hapsburg state and almost assuring a Russo-German alliance/partnership.

France will be forced to accept and welcome the Austrians into at least some kind of partnership eventually if she can’t find a miracle way of wooing the Czar such as IOTL. Perhaps some kind of Catholic league can be established with Italy over time, although she would probably certainly desert such an alliance at any opportunity just as OTL Triple Alliance.

Britain will become very worried over the Russians newfound fortune as well as highly tilted against the motives of Imperial Germany. I'm not sure if enough to push them into an Entente with France ... yet. Russian and German foreign policy will probably dictate that.

Probably not a good time to be a Turk, as whatever conflict or fight that might ignite in Europe most likely entails a hungry Russian bear marching on Constantinople without a Germany striking into its heart this time.

Depending on the speed of which the Hapsburgs run to France, Germany simply wants to maintain some sort of balance between Austria and Russia. Over time and eventually the two sides will situation themselves in their respective spheres of influence and alliance. In the Short term Germany might not fully understand the benefits of being tied to a Russia that is in need of investment/loans, brimming with political unrest, soon to fight (probably lose)a R-J war, and probably come to the brink of revolution. In the long run, Germany just made the right choice in choosing the 'rabid' bear over the 'dying' duck (A-H).

So I think you can have some kind of partnership and alliance of Germany and Russia with perhaps Bulgaria and Serbia in the background. (Not sure who Romania would side with). France and Austria-Hungry are in a terrible strategic position but seem to have few options. A Catholic trio with Italy changes little in the grand scheme of things. Another force could involve some kind of 'pact' with the British with the Low Countries in case of a continental war and with naval guarantees with the Ottomans. A great many interesting developments and options are on the table following the F-P War.

Think about the fronts in such a war. The 'German' front (southern) would be enormous and almost certainly decided by Russian plans in Hungary right? What possible options would France have? Does Germany attempt to bite off Bohemia and secure the Germanic regions or still go after France first? Split A-H with Russia then march on Paris side by side with the Czar ala 1814?
 
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Hmmmm, I always like to think shifting up the Congress of Berlin is the best way to dramatically change German (and thus European) misfortunes post 1914. Have something shift Bismarck’s strategy into supporting Russian ventures and many of the articles of the Treaty of San Stefano. The ripples of such a shift from baby sitter to being seen as a Slavic ally would be enormous.

First and most importantly there most likely will be no Duel Alliance. Supporting and siding with Russia will absolutely go a long way in angering and offending the worthless decrepit Hapsburg state and almost assuring a Russo-German alliance/partnership.

France will be forced to accept and welcome the Austrians into at least some kind of partnership eventually if she can’t find a miracle way of wooing the Czar such as IOTL. Perhaps some kind of Catholic league can be established with Italy over time, although she would probably certainly desert such an alliance at any opportunity just as OTL Triple Alliance.

Britain will become very worried over the Russians newfound fortune as well as highly tilted against the motives of Imperial Germany. I'm not sure if enough to push them into an Entente with France ... yet. Russian and German foreign policy will probably dictate that.

Probably not a good time to be a Turk, as whatever conflict or fight that might ignite in Europe most likely entails a hungry Russian bear marching on Constantinople without a Germany striking into its heart this time.

Depending on the speed of which the Hapsburgs run to France, Germany simply wants to maintain some sort of balance between Austria and Russia. Over time and eventually the two sides will situation themselves in their respective spheres of influence and alliance. In the Short term Germany might not fully understand the benefits of being tied to a Russia that is in need of investment/loans, brimming with political unrest, soon to fight (probably lose)a R-J war, and probably come to the brink of revolution. In the long run, Germany just made the right choice in choosing the 'rabid' bear over the 'dying' duck (A-H).

So I think you can have some kind of partnership and alliance of Germany and Russia with perhaps Bulgaria and Serbia in the background. (Not sure who Romania would side with). France and Austria-Hungry are in a terrible strategic position but seem to have few options. A Catholic trio with Italy changes little in the grand scheme of things. Another force could involve some kind of 'pact' with the British with the Low Countries in case of a continental war and with naval guarantees with the Ottomans. A great many interesting developments and options are on the table following the F-P War.

Think about the fronts in such a war. The 'German' front (southern) would be enormous and almost certainly decided by Russian plans in Hungary right? What possible options would France have? Does Germany attempt to bite off Bohemia and secure the Germanic regions or still go after France first? Split A-H with Russia then march on Paris side by side with the Czar ala 1814?


But..the challenge was Russo-French and German-Ottoman alliances, not Russo-German.


Anyway, France-Russia is obviously the easiest, and Brittan-Austria is pretty easy to envision (They were on pretty good terms pre-war, maybe the Kaiser lends some public support to the pan-germanists and drives away the Austrians?). An alliance with Brittan would probably mean some support for the reformist factions, as Brittan would obviously want a stable ally on the continent, and fighting to crush the feudal Hungarian aristocracy would probably be a bit of good press.

German-Ottoman? No idea, maybe the Triple alliance includes Istanbul instead of Rome? Then, after the austrians switch alliances they'd use them as a proxy in the Middle East?

Hard part is stooping Brittan and France from aligning.
 
Hard part is stooping Brittan and France from aligning.

Why? This could easily be done using colonial adventures à la Fashoda.

I'd say the hard part is keeping Germany in the weakest of all alliances against hostile France in teh West and hostile Russia in the East.
 
But..the challenge was Russo-French and German-Ottoman alliances, not Russo-German.

Sorry, I was going along the lines of the topic header alone and thought the divisions from the OP were just an example of one possible tripolar 1914.


Anyway, France-Russia is obviously the easiest, and Brittan-Austria is pretty easy to envision (They were on pretty good terms pre-war, maybe the Kaiser lends some public support to the pan-germanists and drives away the Austrians?). An alliance with Brittan would probably mean some support for the reformist factions, as Brittan would obviously want a stable ally on the continent, and fighting to crush the feudal Hungarian aristocracy would probably be a bit of good press.

Germany has some pretty damn awful foreign policy post Bismack but I don't think even those morons would let both Russia AND Austria slip away to opposing camps. Russia was more comfortable with Germany for most of the mid 19th century (Little thing called the Crimean War) and they actually were the ones who asked for the Reinsurance Treaty to be renewed. If Germany is going to slap Russia in the face then they would have to have Austria in the bag. Reversely if they are going to scare or drive away Austria then they would have to ensure they stay with Russia. Or specifically keep Russia away from France. The isolation of France was key to Bismarck's reasoning and though bungled and likely mismanaged after his resignation the diplomatic corp would not be so dumb as to cripple Germany with the ultimate ironic mistake and create her own isolation. (Fully realize that by tying herself to the ball and chain that is A-H and the back stabbing Italians this is basically what they did IOTL)

German-Ottoman? No idea, maybe the Triple alliance includes Istanbul instead of Rome? Then, after the austrians switch alliances they'd use them as a proxy in the Middle East?

Have a hard time seeing this develop. Germany must make some absolutely terrible decision to find herself clinging to the Turks. And likewise for the Turks to ally with Germany against a Russian camp and while worrying about where the British fall in ... is really calling for a major POD.

Hard part is stooping Brittan and France from aligning.[/QUOTE]

Agree with Burns' comment below. Assuming Germany isn't suicidal with her diplomacy I think there are a lot of ways the Tommies don't warm to the Frogs. In fact, probably more reasoning to see them not just staying lukewarm at best with each other actually.


Why? This could easily be done using colonial adventures à la Fashoda.


I'd say the hard part is keeping Germany in the weakest of all alliances against hostile France in teh West and hostile Russia in the East.

Agreed. I just don't see this happening ... unless again you have some really really REALLY terrible decisions coming out from Berlin. As in even more terrible than their 1890-1914 diplomacy already was.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Forget the Ottomans. Here are my suggestion;

Germany- Italy

AH- Britain - (Ottomans perhaps too)

France- Russia

I think this kind of system would have prevented WW1.
 
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