General Zod
Banned
A recent thread (here) has been discussing the strategic developments of this alt-WWI lineup, but I thought it might be interesting also discuss what the trigger point for this WWI lineup might be, as well as any significant butterfly, if any, that might occur between the PoD and beginning of WWI:
Triple Alliance: Germany, Russia, Italy. Junior partners: Greece, Romania, either Bulgaria or Serbia.
Triple Entente: Britain, France, Austria-Hungary. Associated members: Ottoman Empire, Japan. Junior partner: either Bulgaria or Serbia.
Neutral countries that in all likelihood remain so throughout the conflict: USA, South America, Scandinavian countries, Iberian countries.
Neutral countries that may become involved at some point: Benelux, Switzerland.
Description of the PoD:
Sometime in the early-mid 1870s, German Chancellor Bismarck awoke one night with a sweat. In a nightmare, he had foreseen the future: the inevitable collapse of his carefully-woven diplomatic web to isolate France owning to Russo-British rivalry, the encirclement of the Reich owning to misguided naval competition with Britain and Austrian rivalries with Russia and Italy, the growing internal instability and decay of the useless Habsburg ally, the Fatherland starved by British blockade, invaded by French and Russian hordes, the monarchy collapsing in Socialist revolution...
It was horrible, and intolerable. He saw everything so clearly, what had escaped him so far. The diplomatic strategy he had followed up to that moment, might work in the short term, but was doomed to failure in the long term, when the fertile land of Prussia would have embraced him, and the inept sycophants that would surround some future Emperor would let his careful construction go to ruin. He would have to do better, build a alliance system that would be the strongest possible and absolutely able to ensure the success of the Reich in the general war that was coming, sooner or later.
But what to do ? In the coming days and weeks, a possible strategy dawned: He could solidify the alliance with Russia by supporting their claims on the Balkans. Let's face it, the Habsburg Empire was bound to collapse sooner or later, it made no sense to exhaust the strength of the Reich trying to breathe life in that corpse. Better to abandon that alliance, and make an agreement with Russia and Italy to support their interests instead. In perspective, to make a pact for the eventual partition of the Habsburg and the Ottomans with those nations, in the contingency of a war or their internal collapse. With Russia and Italy allied to Germany, the Reich could cower any coalition of rival powers, be them Britain, France, Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans, out of war, or win it in short order.
During the Congress of Berlin, according to his new geopolitical and strategic insight, Bismarck supports Russian interests as much as he can short of causing a general war. He is unable to get many of the Russian aims satisfied, but his support ensures that Britain and Austria-Hungary are unable to undo the effects of Russian victory in the Russo-Turkish War as much as they wished.
The large autonomy (de facto independence) of Bulgaria as a Principate and its full ownership of Eastern Rumelia is recognized but it is forced to give all of Macedonia back to the Ottoman Empire. The Austrian candidate for the throne, Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, is picked. The independence of Romania, Serbia, and Montenegro is also recognized. Austria-Hungary is allowed to "occupy and administer" Bosnia-Hercegovina and the Sanjak of Novi Pazar. Greece receives Thessaly and the district of Arta in Epirus but its hopes to gain Crete are frustrated. Russia keeps Ardahan, Batum and Kars. Britain gets the occupation and administration of Cyprus, the powers' guarantee that the Straits shall remain in Ottoman possession (but they are declared open to all neutral ships in war and peacetime), and a free hand to establish a protectorate of Egypt. France is allowed to establish a protectorate in Tunisia. Italy is much angered over Franch expansion in Tunis and Austrian expansion into Bosnia, but is granted the right to establish a protectorate in Tripolitania. Romania gets Dobruja but must return southern Bessarabia to Russia.
Russia, thankful for German diplomatic support, soon formalizes the alliance with Germany in the Dual Alliance of 1879. Italy, angered over French occupation of Tunis, resentful over A-H expansion in the Balkans without a settlment of Italian irredentist claims, and eager to get powerful allies against both France and A-H, joins Germany and Russia in the Triple Alliance of 1882. Austria-Hungary, angry with Germany for its support to Russian interests, breaks the Dreikaiserbund and makes the Dual Entente with France in 1881.
Britain maintains its “splendid isolation” up into the 1890s. Subsequenty, growing concerns for Russian expansionism in Central Asia and the Far East, and naval rivalry with Germany, move it to join France and Austria in the Triple Entente in 1901, and sign an alliance with Japan in 1902. Both Bismarck and his successors work to solidify the Triple Alliance by heavily investing German capital and expertise to develop and modernize Russian and Italian economy, infrastructure, and military. France, and later Britain as well, does likewise with Austria-Hungary.
Now, some possible ideas for the alt-WWI trigger point:
a) the Russo-Japanese War escalates, with the intervention of Germany/Italy/Britain;
b) Germany and France have a clash over the ownership of Morocco;
c) Italy and the Ottoman Empire have a clash over the ownership of Libya;
d) The Great Game turns hot as Britain and Russia pick a fight over Persia or Afghanistan;
e) A couple of great powers from opposite alliances pick a fight over some corner of the Balkans;
f) TTL's version of the Balkan War (e.g. a war between Bulgaria and Serbia for Macedonia) occurs, and it escalates with great powers' intervention;
g) Nothing really new under the Sun: some Balkan irredentist organization stages some really nasty assassination or terrorist act and it all escalates;
h) A couple of great powers from opposite alliances pick a fight over some un-mentioned colonial possession (describe);
i) Something else entirely (describe);
What do you prefer and why ?
Triple Alliance: Germany, Russia, Italy. Junior partners: Greece, Romania, either Bulgaria or Serbia.
Triple Entente: Britain, France, Austria-Hungary. Associated members: Ottoman Empire, Japan. Junior partner: either Bulgaria or Serbia.
Neutral countries that in all likelihood remain so throughout the conflict: USA, South America, Scandinavian countries, Iberian countries.
Neutral countries that may become involved at some point: Benelux, Switzerland.
Description of the PoD:
Sometime in the early-mid 1870s, German Chancellor Bismarck awoke one night with a sweat. In a nightmare, he had foreseen the future: the inevitable collapse of his carefully-woven diplomatic web to isolate France owning to Russo-British rivalry, the encirclement of the Reich owning to misguided naval competition with Britain and Austrian rivalries with Russia and Italy, the growing internal instability and decay of the useless Habsburg ally, the Fatherland starved by British blockade, invaded by French and Russian hordes, the monarchy collapsing in Socialist revolution...
It was horrible, and intolerable. He saw everything so clearly, what had escaped him so far. The diplomatic strategy he had followed up to that moment, might work in the short term, but was doomed to failure in the long term, when the fertile land of Prussia would have embraced him, and the inept sycophants that would surround some future Emperor would let his careful construction go to ruin. He would have to do better, build a alliance system that would be the strongest possible and absolutely able to ensure the success of the Reich in the general war that was coming, sooner or later.
But what to do ? In the coming days and weeks, a possible strategy dawned: He could solidify the alliance with Russia by supporting their claims on the Balkans. Let's face it, the Habsburg Empire was bound to collapse sooner or later, it made no sense to exhaust the strength of the Reich trying to breathe life in that corpse. Better to abandon that alliance, and make an agreement with Russia and Italy to support their interests instead. In perspective, to make a pact for the eventual partition of the Habsburg and the Ottomans with those nations, in the contingency of a war or their internal collapse. With Russia and Italy allied to Germany, the Reich could cower any coalition of rival powers, be them Britain, France, Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans, out of war, or win it in short order.
During the Congress of Berlin, according to his new geopolitical and strategic insight, Bismarck supports Russian interests as much as he can short of causing a general war. He is unable to get many of the Russian aims satisfied, but his support ensures that Britain and Austria-Hungary are unable to undo the effects of Russian victory in the Russo-Turkish War as much as they wished.
The large autonomy (de facto independence) of Bulgaria as a Principate and its full ownership of Eastern Rumelia is recognized but it is forced to give all of Macedonia back to the Ottoman Empire. The Austrian candidate for the throne, Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, is picked. The independence of Romania, Serbia, and Montenegro is also recognized. Austria-Hungary is allowed to "occupy and administer" Bosnia-Hercegovina and the Sanjak of Novi Pazar. Greece receives Thessaly and the district of Arta in Epirus but its hopes to gain Crete are frustrated. Russia keeps Ardahan, Batum and Kars. Britain gets the occupation and administration of Cyprus, the powers' guarantee that the Straits shall remain in Ottoman possession (but they are declared open to all neutral ships in war and peacetime), and a free hand to establish a protectorate of Egypt. France is allowed to establish a protectorate in Tunisia. Italy is much angered over Franch expansion in Tunis and Austrian expansion into Bosnia, but is granted the right to establish a protectorate in Tripolitania. Romania gets Dobruja but must return southern Bessarabia to Russia.
Russia, thankful for German diplomatic support, soon formalizes the alliance with Germany in the Dual Alliance of 1879. Italy, angered over French occupation of Tunis, resentful over A-H expansion in the Balkans without a settlment of Italian irredentist claims, and eager to get powerful allies against both France and A-H, joins Germany and Russia in the Triple Alliance of 1882. Austria-Hungary, angry with Germany for its support to Russian interests, breaks the Dreikaiserbund and makes the Dual Entente with France in 1881.
Britain maintains its “splendid isolation” up into the 1890s. Subsequenty, growing concerns for Russian expansionism in Central Asia and the Far East, and naval rivalry with Germany, move it to join France and Austria in the Triple Entente in 1901, and sign an alliance with Japan in 1902. Both Bismarck and his successors work to solidify the Triple Alliance by heavily investing German capital and expertise to develop and modernize Russian and Italian economy, infrastructure, and military. France, and later Britain as well, does likewise with Austria-Hungary.
Now, some possible ideas for the alt-WWI trigger point:
a) the Russo-Japanese War escalates, with the intervention of Germany/Italy/Britain;
b) Germany and France have a clash over the ownership of Morocco;
c) Italy and the Ottoman Empire have a clash over the ownership of Libya;
d) The Great Game turns hot as Britain and Russia pick a fight over Persia or Afghanistan;
e) A couple of great powers from opposite alliances pick a fight over some corner of the Balkans;
f) TTL's version of the Balkan War (e.g. a war between Bulgaria and Serbia for Macedonia) occurs, and it escalates with great powers' intervention;
g) Nothing really new under the Sun: some Balkan irredentist organization stages some really nasty assassination or terrorist act and it all escalates;
h) A couple of great powers from opposite alliances pick a fight over some un-mentioned colonial possession (describe);
i) Something else entirely (describe);
What do you prefer and why ?
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