Tresckow and Olbricht's assassination of Hitler, March 13, 1943

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This does not butterfly away the atomic bomb. The latest the Germans can go is August 1945.

Agreed. Backstop on any better German defensive performance is around that date.

Personally, in some respects, Germany NOT managing to hold out to that date is probably better for them. Do they really want buckets of instant sunshine?
 
Agreed. Backstop on any better German defensive performance is around that date.

Personally, in some respects, Germany NOT managing to hold out to that date is probably better for them. Do they really want buckets of instant sunshine?


Not necessarily. A much better performance could butterfly away the decision to finance the manhattan project in the first place or any other of the numerous butterflies that could seriously delay the american atomic bomb.
 
Lets say that with Hitler gone the ensuing political chaos sees Kursk put off, Manstein's backhand blow is the default option after a Soviet Offensive against Army Group South in July. It doesn't fully work terribly well but Germany enters Autumn 1943 in much better shape than OTL. 1944 is still a disaster for Germany as they get pushed back by the Red Army, however without Hitlers last stand orders the retreat is slower, less bloody and better managed. Equally less Wunderwaffe means the Heer is slightly better equipped. Normandy happens as OTL but the follow up goes slower as Germany is collapsing more slowly than OTL. Summer 1945 see's Germany pushed back over the Rhine in the West and the pre-war Polish border in the East. On the 6th of August the Rhineland and Silesia have fallen but Germany still holds the rectangle between Munich, Hamburg, Berlin and Dresden. Is the bomb used on Japan or Germany? Where is it used? If it is used on Germany do they surrender like the Japanese? If Germany surrenders due to the bomb rather than Red Army troops in Berlin what are the long term social and political effects on Germany? Maybe a Germany that is more like Japan in not having fully confronted it's war guilt and "having the well we paid for our crimes by getting nuked so its all even" line?
 
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Goring taking over at that point is rather shaky at best

the man had strained relations with the army at the best of times; and he had just utterly humiliated himself to the army with the failure of the stalingrad airlift

at this point the army is going through a big transition in leadership; so it isn't the 44 scenario where Guderian would just kill everybody and take over

however, I have a hard time just accepting fat man as leader... at minimum for them to accept his political leadership, they would ask for and demand army independence to run the war in the east under a general of the army's choosing (probably Rundsteadt)

by having a sober military professional in charge, Germany does better, but the ultimate result isn't in doubt

march 43 is too late for germany to force russia to the peace table from a position of strength
 

Deleted member 1487

Equally less Wunderwaffe means the Heer is slightly better equipped.
Killing the V3 and V2 projects would seriously help:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-2#Assessment

The German V-weapons (V-1 and V-2) cost $3 billion (wartime dollars) and was more costly than the Manhattan Project that produced the atomic bomb ($1.9 billion).[13]:178 6,048 V-2s were built, at a cost of approximately 100,000 Reichsmarks (GB£2,370,000 (2011)) each; 3,225 were launched. SS General Hans Kammler, who as an engineer had constructed several concentration camps including Auschwitz, had a reputation for brutality and had originated the idea of using concentration camp prisoners as slave laborers in the rocket program. The V-2 is perhaps the only weapon system to have caused more deaths by its production than its deployment.[44]

"… those of us who were seriously engaged in the war were very grateful to Wernher von Braun. We knew that each V-2 cost as much to produce as a high-performance fighter airplane. We knew that German forces on the fighting fronts were in desperate need of airplanes, and that the V-2 rockets were doing us no military damage. From our point of view, the V-2 program was almost as good as if Hitler had adopted a policy of unilateral disarmament." (Freeman Dyson)[45]

The V-2 consumed a third of Germany's fuel alcohol production and major portions of other critical technologies:[46] to distil the fuel alcohol for one V-2 launch required 30 tonnes of potatoes at a time when food was becoming scarce.[47]

Plus the nozzles of the rocket had to be made out of the last stocks of rare metals like nickel that could handle the high heat of the engine.
And we haven't even discussed the massive effort building the underground factory for this missile.

Also canceling Uboat construction in 1943 would have a ton of resources for land and air weapons at a time when the Battle of the Atlantic was lost and a waste of resources; the metal workers could be used for tanks, while the crews, engineers, and techs could have been used in the army or air force. Beyond that the materials used for Uboat pens could be saved too, but then the Allies would have more to use on Germany if they were defending against further Uboat threats...
 
Certainly somebody, if not Olbricht himself can see the danger the SS holds when trying to take power of the Reich. Himmler might try a shot at the throne afterall

He is free to try....

Wouldn't, after Hitlers death other anti-Hitler Nazi's like Von Stauffenberg, Beck and Canaris (even Rommel or Halder?) try to completely erradicate Hitler's inner circle under Olbricht's Valkyrie?

Not even just the names you mentioned if Himmler declares himself to be 'the leader' you will finally find one subject the Field Marshals finally could agree on and very quickly Himmler and his allies would be dead very quickly unless they strike first in which case you have quite a few dead German generals, but Himmler and his allies would still most likely end up dead.

Is the bomb used on Japan or Germany? Where is it used? If it is used on Germany do they surrender like the Japanese? If Germany surrenders due to the bomb rather than Red Army troops in Berlin what are the long term social and political effects on Germany? Maybe a Germany that is more like Japan in not having fully confronted it's war guilt and "having the well we paid for our crimes by getting nuked so its all even" line?

That is not why there is a massive difference between Germany and Japan in regarding the issue of collective guilt. I read the papers from the 40s and while there was a huge push and planning in the U.S. as far back as 1943 to 're-educate' the population of Germany and instill in them the concept of collective guilt there was no major push regarding the Japanese.

Its pretty clear from reading the news articles back then was because of racial thinking that Americans expected the Japanese to act like to be frank savages and given the racial views in the West the focus was on beating them down and keeping them down not re-educating them.

But, if you had a German government that ended the Final Solution in 1943 it would have wide ranging effects on how Germans see themselves. Even with the 're-education' it would only go so far as Germans stopped the Final Solution rather then having it stopped for them by an outside power. That would have a huge effect on the psyche on Germans as a population to this day.
 
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Deleted member 1487

But, if you had a German government that ended the Final Solution in 1943 it would have wide ranging effects on how Germans see themselves. Even with the 're-education' it would only go so far as Germans stopped the Final Solution rather then having it stopped for them by an outside power. That would have a huge effect on the psyche on Germans as a population to this day.

The new regime if non-Nazi, which is not guaranteed if Hitler dies in 1943, will try and cover up the final solution and instead used forced labor and probably much of the same behavior minus the gas chambers. Scenes like what the US and British found in 1945 would still exist ITTL, as IIRC, the Western Allies only liberated labor camps. Massive mistreatment, starvation, and widespread disease would still kill millions of people in concentration camps, with the only difference being in the East where there won't be gas chambers at Auschwitz and other such camps, just factories and crematoria for the high number of deaths resulting from forced labor. I don't think much will change in the perception of the German war effort, other than details of the initial plans for the 'Final Solution' being destroyed. So instead 'Hunger Plan East' and the mistreatment of Eastern Europeans gets more play at Nuremberg than the crimes against the Jewish People.

It would be interesting to know if the activities of the Einsatzgruppen are ever discovered here; perhaps the non-Nazi generals will keep that evidence to show at the end of the war that they were fighting against the evil of the Nazis too?
 
Since the Wehrmacht collaborated with the Einsatzgruppen, it's unlikely the generals would want that exposed.
 
Also, the backhand blow was a pipe dream that wouldn't inflict any more damage on the Soviets than IOTL; nor would it significantly delay them, since they'll be able to attack in May rather than wait until after Citadel.
 
The new regime if non-Nazi, which is not guaranteed if Hitler dies in 1943, will try and cover up the final solution and instead used forced labor and probably much of the same behavior minus the gas chambers. Scenes like what the US and British found in 1945 would still exist ITTL, as IIRC, the Western Allies only liberated labor camps. Massive mistreatment, starvation, and widespread disease would still kill millions of people in concentration camps, with the only difference being in the East where there won't be gas chambers at Auschwitz and other such camps, just factories and crematoria for the high number of deaths resulting from forced labor. I don't think much will change in the perception of the German war effort, other than details of the initial plans for the 'Final Solution' being destroyed. So instead 'Hunger Plan East' and the mistreatment of Eastern Europeans gets more play at Nuremberg than the crimes against the Jewish People.

It would be interesting to know if the activities of the Einsatzgruppen are ever discovered here; perhaps the non-Nazi generals will keep that evidence to show at the end of the war that they were fighting against the evil of the Nazis too?

Without the pictures and video of piles of dead bodies and half dead people a lot will change in the post war perception. Stories are also far less powerful and real to people then actual video and photos. You are quite right that the actions of the Einsatzgruppen as well as the death camps would be kept under raps during the war and documents about them burned well before the end of the war.

After the war is over stories would still get out about what happened, but the upper echelons for the most part to be frank would either say its exaggerations or blame it on Nazi leaders who died in 1943. How much the western public buys it is hard to say and it depends on how good a job they do at destroying the evidence.

You are correct that the actions of the generals in the East would receive a lot more scrutiny until the Cold War starts.
 
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iddt3

Donor
How much would this affect the 1944 election? Does the GOP nominate someone else? Could a well-timed peace offer cause him to win?
The GOP isn't exactly isolationist at this point anymore. They were running Dewey, who I don't think is any more likely to accept peace then Truman was. I also don't think the Germans would offer an acceptable peace, in 1943 they still think they're negotiating from a position of strength. post war borders were already agreed upon by the time of the 1944 election anyway.
 

iddt3

Donor
Not necessarily. A much better performance could butterfly away the decision to finance the manhattan project in the first place or any other of the numerous butterflies that could seriously delay the american atomic bomb.
By 1943 it's already financed, and is moving ahead pretty inexorably. It is actually fairly difficult to delay it further at this point, the US was throwing a ton of money and talent at the project.
 
The GOP isn't exactly isolationist at this point anymore. They were running Dewey, who I don't think is any more likely to accept peace then Truman was. I also don't think the Germans would offer an acceptable peace, in 1943 they still think they're negotiating from a position of strength. post war borders were already agreed upon by the time of the 1944 election anyway.

Its up to what happens at Normandy. If its a failure and FDR is seen as refusing reasonable peace terms... Dewey will suddenly pivot to an Obama type argument we need to focus on the people who attacked us (Japan in this case) and FDR took his eyes off the ball.

With military success at Normandy, either Dewey or FDR would continue the war in Europe. If its a flop suddenly the politics totally changes.
 

Robert

Banned
This was the scenario for the 1990 XTR Wargame Nato Nukes and Nazis.

Hitler is assassinated and the military takes over. Himmler backs the military with the SS, Goring is force to retire, and Gobbles is assassinated.

The Germans manage to fight the Western Allies to a standstill while on the Eastern front they arm the Ukrainians and beat back the Red Armies attacks. Stalin is overthrown by Zhukov and the Russians make peace. The war ends when the U.S. uses the Atomic Bomb on Germany, but with the Nazis still in power. Japan surrenders after seeing the results of the atomic bomb on Germany.

While Japan and Russia become NATO members and democratic, China becomes a German ally. Albert Speer becomes leader of Germany and the Cold War continues because no one is sure what the Germans are going to do.

Truman lost in 1948 to Douglas MacArthur because he failed to achieve an unconditional surrender.

After Speer dies the Nazis using the senile Himmler as a prop come back to power in Germany and launch a Third World War against NATO.
 
This is, in my opinion, the most interesting timeline.
I’ve heard conflicting stories, but it seems that the percussion cap was faulty – the copper chloride did eat through the wire that released the spring, but the cap didn’t do it’s job. I imagine a scene where some *SNAP* gives Tresckow a fright as he’s about to place the cap, and he drops it. Unable it to find it in the dim light, he grabs another, not faulty cap.
Thirty minutes later: BOOM

The news is relayed to Olbricht in Berlin. Operation Valkyrie in its earlier, less effective form is launched immediately, and Fromm decides to join. Over the course of the evening of 13 March, the Reserve Army seizes control of Berlin, Munich and Vienna. Himmler and Göering have heard news of the assassination, and Göering, after having telephoned senior Nazi leaders, orders them to Berlin.
Olbricht brings in Beck immediately, and Beck, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Army, knows how to take charge. Arrest orders for senior Nazi leaders are issued. Phone calls to Canaris, Küchler, Kluge, Manstein (Beck’s protégé), Witzleben, Rommel, Guderian, and other important Generals confirm most of the senior army leadership is firmly behind Beck. The old General knows he must use this momentum to seize the situation before enemies can react. Göering is arrested upon arrival in Berlin, and other senior Nazi party officials are also captured.
In the Ukraine, the Battle of Kharkov is nearing its finale – Manstein manages to persuade General Hausser to side with the Army, and the Waffen SS threat is temporarily swayed. Kharkov falls the next day, and by March 23 the Eastern Front reaches the spring impasse.
Meanwhile, on March 14 a supreme military council is convened. At this time, not all Nazi leaders have been arrested, but they are scattered and disorganized. Thanks to Beck, and Canaris and his Abwehr in particular, the Reserve Army has taken control of the Wehrkreise, further hampering the Nazi leadership’s ability to react. Rundstedt is called to Berlin for the Supreme Military Council.

The Supreme Military Council is general agreement: the War is lost and the only objective now is to seek the most tolerable peace in the quickest amount of time, to try and preserve Germany and save Eastern Europe from Soviet domination. The council believes the Nazi leadership has become a liability, and must be neutralized. Beck is confirmed as head of provisional government, and is given a mandate to appoint a provisional cabinet with the goal of ending the war on both fronts. A general wartime strategy is also agreed – an immediate evacuation from North Africa, and the army is to assume a defensive posture on the Eastern Front. The meeting and discussions last for over 20 hours with numerous interruptions as Beck receives information and gives orders for further action against the Nazi leadership. Following these agreements, the council is adjourned and a radio address is given by Beck to the nation that evening on 15 March.
In the following days, Beck recruits Ribbentrop (with promises of clemency) to seek a ceasefire with Russia. Goerdeler becomes provisional chancellor. Von Neurath is tasked with seeking a truce with the Western Allies. By early April, a ceasefire is agreed upon on the Eastern Front (something George Kennan, among others, believed Stalin was readily prepared to accept at that point), and the Axis powers fall back to the 1941 line. This presents the Western powers with a fait accompli. The Luftwaffe redeploys from the East to the Mediterranean, defeating the Allied operation “Flax”, and the Axis forces evacuate from North Africa. Mussolini is sacked in Italy and the fascist party is outlawed. Churchill is positive at the outlook of peace. British debt-to-GDP has reached over 150%, and continuing the war could bankrupt the Empire. Prohibitive losses in air combat over Germany and Tunisia help convince the Americans that an armistice is worth exploring, especially once Neurath confirms that Germany is prepared to accept most of the Atlantic Charter save disarmament for the simple reason Eastern Europe must be protected. Both the British and Americans see a point in letting Germany retain at least air and ground forces to deter Russia.

The German terms are reasonable – in exchange for a guarantee that the Munich Agreement will be respected, possibility for negotiation on the Polish corridor, an agreement to accept responsibility for the war and a promise to pay an undefined amount of reparations, but a tacit acceptance that a sound Germany is necessary to protect Eastern Europe against Stalin, and that reparations should be reasonable enough that Germany can afford them and a substantial army at the same time. With these terms, an armistice is accepted and the Battle of the Atlantic and the Air War immediately end.

The German army and air-force reorganize, reducing the number of formations but brigning them up to full strength. The Germans place full emphasis on fighter production and drop construction of more ground attack aircraft and other expensive projects. Most of the Army (over 3 million men) is still in the East facing the Russians, feverishly constructing the most elaborate defensive line ever built. The rapid withdrawal from Russian territory prevents the Russians from relaunching the war as they must build up their own lines and shore up defences. By fall 1943 German defensive preparations are so advanced an attack would be slaughter, and the German airforce is rapidly recovering and preparing for a defensive war.

The peace is concluded near the end of 1943 and Germany agrees to “surrender” to the Western Allies – German forces are evacuated, a third of the army is demobilized, Germany commits to pay reparations, including substantial reparations to Poland in exchange for territorial concessions.

The events of 1943 are a definitive victory for National Conservatism. The monarchies of Southern and Eastern Europe are saved. Following the war, senior Nazi officials are tried and executed for the horrors of the Holocaust. The education system and universities of post-war Germany reject all forms of radicalism, painting national socialism and communism in the same light. Germany’s Christian heritage and its synthesis with German warrior culture and Roman and Greek civilization become understood as the pillars behind the ascendancy of the West.

Goerdeler, who is Chancellor, a free-market economist, together with Hjalmar Schacht, who becomes the Finance Minister abolish price controls in 1945-6 as the German economy continues to experience dire shortages and a crushing burden of military spending to maintain a large Army on the Memel-Odessa line.

Abolishing price controls ushers in a wirtsschaftwunder as German economy grows rapidly. While the Marshall Plan retards economic growth in Western Europe, by 1950-1, the massive contraction of the German economy after the end of war spending is now recovered.
 
Monarchy

Another idea I've had is that post-war polls indicated the Germans were in favor of restoring the monarchy, at least in Bavaria. The Generals were also largely monarchists, so one could imagine a referendum that generates the opposite result of what was seen in Italy in 1943 - Prince Oskar becomes the new Kaiser, Bavaria becomes a kingdom again, Austria and Sudentenland become the Duchy of Austria under the Habsburgs.

The recovery of the German monarchy also saves the Italian monarchy and the monarchies of the Balkans. Michael of Romania would be the longest reigning monarch in European history at this point, since he would've been king since 1940 till at least 2015.

The USSR joins the war in the East in 1944, occupying all of the Korean peninsula, so there is no Korean War. Mao Zedong conquers China, and the French lose Indochina as OTL.

Attlee becomes Prime Minister in 1943, so relations with the USSR are generally positive from 1943-48, until Churchill returns to power. At this point, Churchill tries to save the Empire and returns Germany's colonies.

Israel is founded, and finds itself a Soviet ally in its early days as in OTL.

The question is whether Taft gets the Republican nomination in 1948, and if he beats Truman. That would be interesting, indeed.
 
One change not yet mentioned is Tunisia. Most of the damage for the German war effort in that theatre has already happened, but Hitler would be dead just 4 days after Rommel tried to persuade him to withdraw from Africa. Everyone else would have agreed most likely. At that time they were still somewhat able to do so. Most equipment still would be lost, but just 5% of the men lost there could fill another division if allowed to withdraw. Not to mention the 600+ planes captured otl of which even late in a preplanned withdrawl a decent number could be saved.
 
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One change not yet mentioned is Tunisia. Most of the damage for the German war effort in that theatre has already happened, but Hitler would be dead just 4 days after Rommel tried to persuade him to withdraw from Africa. Everyone else would have agreed most likely. At that time they were still somewhat able to do so. Most equipment still would be lost, but just 5% of the men lost there could fill another division if allowed to withdraw. Not to mention the 600+ planes captured otl of which even late in a preplanned withdrawl a decent number could be saved.

They could have pulled a few divisions worth of troops before the fall.
 
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