Trastamara Spain

As of late, I've been working on a TL dealing with a surviving Don Juan of Aragon. It's still in a preliminary phase, though largely inspired by several earlier discussions on the topic. Basically, the scenario is this: Juan does not die of consumption in 1497, but instead survives, dying around 1533 or so. Things go as in OTL more or less as far as the Italian Wars, colonization of the New World and the Conquest of Navarre are concerned up until the death of Ferran II of Aragon in 1516. Philippe the Handsome still dies around 1506 as in OTL. We'll assume that births are also relatively the same as in OTL, and Charles V manages to win the election of 1519.

However, I have a few problems that I have yet to work out and was wondering if anyone could be of assistance on the subject:

-Who would Charles V be most likely to marry ITTL? And, along the same line, who does Ferdinand marry and what are the Emperor's dynastic goals for his younger grandson? Who will Maximilian I and later Charles V prefer to forge their family marital alliances with? I can see more German marriages in the mix with the Habsburgs more concentrated on Imperial affairs.

-What will be the consequences of no Revolt of the Communeros and continuing the Catholic Kings' policy in regard to the bourgeoisie of Castile? I assume that the Germanies will still revolt on schedule, given the state of Aragon will be more or less the same in 1516 ITTL?

-What will Spanish domestic policy look like without the Habsburgs? Perhaps we'll see a weaker Inquisition or earlier centralization? I also imagine foreign policy goals will be far more concerned with American and North African expansion, as well as keeping the French out of Italy?

-In this scenario, assuming we also butterfly away the Sack of Rome, will the Pope be more likely to grant Henry VIII of England an annulment (assuming he still fails to sire a male heir with Catalina of Aragon)? If so, what will Juan III have to say about all of this in regard to his sister?

-Just as an aside, if Philippe the Handsome dies in 1506, what will become of Juana of Aragon ITTL? Will she rule as regent in the Netherlands for her son, or was she showing enough signs of mental decline at this point to be considered mad and unfit to do so? Remember, a surviving Juan means that Marguerite of Austria will remain in Spain as his wife and queen (which I think may have interesting consequences for the cultural developments of the Spanish court, considering she was a keen patron of the arts).

Any help would be greatly appreciated :)
 
- Charles V would likely be looking for a bride in the same places he did OTL: England, France and Iberia. Depending on how many children Don Juan has, he might well marry his cousin the Infanta in order to secure his own succession in case of the absence of male heirs.

Alternatively Charles V marries Anne of Bohemia and Ferdinand is the one looking west- and south-ward for a bride. The Dukes of Burgundy had long-standing links with Portugal so Isabella of Portugal is still a very likely consort for either brother. Was Charles already heir to Castille when Ferdinand was betrothed to Anne of Bohemia?

- Don Juan's survival changes things considerably for Henry VIII and England. OTL Henry VII held off his son's marriage to Catherine, then Dowager Princess of Wales, because he was arranging a potentially more interesting marriage with her niece Eleanor, daughter of the Queen of Castille and (they imagined) future Holy Roman Emperor. With Juan as King of Castille, Catherine's status/prestige wouldn't be altered significantly by her mother's death, allowing for her to marry Henry a good few years before 1509. This in turn might generate further butterflies, as there would be no rift between Ferdinand and Henry VII (over Catherine's dowry, but really because Henry was trying to put the marriage off), allowing for Henry VII's marriage to Joanna of Naples (Ferdinand's niece), possibly resulting in more Tudor heirs.

Earlier marriage to Catherine means greater likelihood of a surviving child, either male or female. Even if we only get Mary being born five or so years earlier, we would likely see Henry VIII becoming a grandfather in the early 1530s, significantly reducing his anxiety over the succession issue. Furthermore, Margaret of Austria in Spain means that Anne Boleyn wouldn't go to Netherlands to be lady-in-waiting, which was what made possible Anne's going to France to serve Mary Tudor, becoming this sexy Frenchified femme fatale and winning Francis I's and later Henry's heart/penis. Anne therefore remains in England and at best becomes the irrelevant Countess of Ormond marrying one of her father's cousins/rivals from Irish backwater.

- Juana La Loca was already crazy for a long time, very obsessive with her husband and his mistresses, his death only pushed her off the edge. I don't see the PoD of her brother's survival being early enough to alter in any way her psychological (im)balance.

Also, Juan's survival means Margaret of Austria doesn't lose the baby she was carrying; assuming she continues reasonably fertile Ferdinand would probably have several male-line grandkids by the time he passes.
 
Alternatively Charles V marries Anne of Bohemia and Ferdinand is the one looking west- and south-ward for a bride. The Dukes of Burgundy had long-standing links with Portugal so Isabella of Portugal is still a very likely consort for either brother. Was Charles already heir to Castille when Ferdinand was betrothed to Anne of Bohemia?

Charles was already king of Castile when Ferdinand and Anne were betrothed.

Maybe Ferdinand could be betrothed to Mary Tudor (the OTL queen, not her aunt), assuming that an ITTL version of her is still born?
 
Was Charles already heir to Castille when Ferdinand was betrothed to Anne of Bohemia?
Yes, he was, hence why I was wondering if Maximilian would consider her a greater prize for his eldest grandson and heir. It was part of Anna's marriage agreement to Ferdinand that he should become King of Hungary and Bohemia if her brother Lajos II were to die without heirs (which was obviously far from certain at this time). Alternatively, perhaps Maximilian sees Anna as a better option for Ferdinand as in OTL and instead plans an English match for Charles? I'm thinking maybe Henry VII's daughter, Mary Tudor?

Don Juan's survival changes things considerably for Henry VIII and England. OTL Henry VII held off his son's marriage to Catherine, then Dowager Princess of Wales, because he was arranging a potentially more interesting marriage with her niece Eleanor, daughter of the Queen of Castille and (they imagined) future Holy Roman Emperor. With Juan as King of Castille, Catherine's status/prestige wouldn't be altered significantly by her mother's death, allowing for her to marry Henry a good few years before 1509. This in turn might generate further butterflies, as there would be no rift between Ferdinand and Henry VII (over Catherine's dowry, but really because Henry was trying to put the marriage off), allowing for Henry VII's marriage to Joanna of Naples (Ferdinand's niece), possibly resulting in more Tudor heirs.
Interesting! I was not aware of this, actually. In that case, I think Henry VIII may very well manage a male heir ITTL. Perhaps we'll see another Anglo-Spanish match between Juan and Henry's children in this second generation of Tudors? Around what year would you think Henry would wed Catherine in this scenario then?

Also, Juan's survival means Margaret of Austria doesn't lose the baby she was carrying; assuming she continues reasonably fertile Ferdinand would probably have several male-line grandkids by the time he passes.
Most definitely. If one looks at the brood Philippe the Handsome managed to sire with Juana, the Trastamara-Habsburgs genetics seem to be a good match as far as the health and survival of offspring goes. Obviously future intermarriage may alter that situation, but for now, I think its a reasonable bet Juan and Margaret will get at least an heir, if not a spare, by the time of Ferran's death.
 
Charles was already king of Castile when Ferdinand and Anne were betrothed.

Maybe Ferdinand could be betrothed to Mary Tudor (the OTL queen, not her aunt), assuming that an ITTL version of her is still born?

The only problem with this that I can see is that she was seven years older than him, although, as I've said, this probably all depends on whether or not Maximilian sees Anna of Hungary as more worthy of his heir (to increase Habsburg domains in the Empire) or his spare (to allow him a chance to form his own patrimony). Of course, Anna's brother Lajos was still alive and well at this time.
 
The only problem with this that I can see is that she was seven years older than him, although, as I've said, this probably all depends on whether or not Maximilian sees Anna of Hungary as more worthy of his heir (to increase Habsburg domains in the Empire) or his spare (to allow him a chance to form his own patrimony). Of course, Anna's brother Lajos was still alive and well at this time.

Mary Tudor (the OTL queen, not her aunt) was 13 years younger than Ferdinand.
 
Ah yes! Mea maxima culpa :eek:

No problem (damned royals, always choosing the same names ;)).

However, I think you need to consider the possibily to Philip surviving ITTL. His death in Spain was so unexpected that probably if he had remained in Netherlands he would've lived longer.
 
However, I think you need to consider the possibily to Philip surviving ITTL. His death in Spain was so unexpected that probably if he had remained in Netherlands he would've lived longer.

I'm still on the fence about this. I know that he caught a fever in Castile and died during the summer and that he will probably survive at least a bit longer ITTL. However, I've also read theories that he suffered from consumption or diabetes (which was supposidly inherited by his grandson Prince João of Portugal through his daughter, Catherine of Austria). He was also rather reckless (or so I've heard) much like his maternal grandfather. I am no expert on the matter, obviously, so I could be wrong.

What do you think? As I said, I'm open to him surviving, too, I'm just unsure at this point as to what would be most realistic.
 
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