Just finished reading this thread. Good stuff; wanted to do something similar ever since I read about the Teutonic Order's time in Burzenland, but it seem I don't have to do so now that I have discovered this.
About Novgorod and its dependency on Muscovite grain; (From the discussion six months or so ago)
Wouldn't a weaker Teutonic presence in the Baltic region, and thus also a *much* weaker Hanseatic League, open up for trade between Novgorod and, say, Poland? OTL, Novgorod was pretty much denied the chance to trade in the Baltic by the Hansa without the Hansa at least acting as middlemen, and Poland probably didn't have full control of its own trade either. (What with Danzig and so on being in German hands for such a long time.)
Let's say Poland manages to get its hands on Prussia at an earlier date, and Novgorod has full control of its own trade - and perhaps its own Baltic port. Why not make Novgorod start importing Polish grain instead? It might not be an effective strategy in the long run, but access to the sea and a good trading relationship between the two would still greatly benefit them both.
Novgorod managing to gain Estonia could also solve many of its food-related issues. Livonia was the breadbasket of the Swedish empire at one point, after all.