I looked up a few numbers:
All from Pakenham's 'The Boer War'.
2/3's of all inhabitants in Cape Colony were Afrikaners
90% of all in Natal were British (or rather English-speaking)
Although impressive, the reality is a bit more complex:
1) Most farmers in outlying areas were Afrikaners. City dwellers could be a bit of everything, but mostly English-speaking.
2) Although Schreiber was PM in Cape, the Cape Afrikaners loyalty was not necessarily towards Transvaal
3) The influx of the uitlanders from Transvaal must have added another 20-30,000 to the English speaking numbers
4) English-speaking does not necessarily mean 'loyal to the crown'. Loyal to their own back-pocket might be more descriptive.
5) Natal was very much loyal to the crown insofar as a lot of the inhabitants were born in the 'empire' or one generation down.
PS: I got de Wet in on the raid on Natal rather than Botha. Sorry.
If we pursue this a bit, we might see a situation where the remote areas of Cape colony can swing towards the republics, leaving Cape Town only in the hands of the British invasion force.
This becomes a nightmare scenario as the army corps would still have to travel across this 'empty' space to get to Free State.
Turning to October again, Botha and his merry men might have got to Durban.
... as said, not many options in Durban, wrecking the docking facilities might be a better option, but that is counter-productive. It will not gain many supporters.
Occupy Durban with less than 2,000 boers is not an option either.
Natal: A tactical victory and a strategic defeat?
Cape: A tactical stalemate and a strategic victory?
Ivan