People talk about the Russo-Japanese War like it was set in stone, when in reality the Trans-Siberian Railway played a huge role in the history of the region. For starters, if the eastern half of the railroad wouldn't have been there by 1895, the Triple Intervention would have been much more unlikely. Later on it was the approaching completion of the Trans-Siberian Railway that played a major part in the sense of urgency Japan had in her relations with Russia just prior the Russo-Japanese War, and the Russian insistence on continuing the occupation of Manchuria - mainly to secure her railroads there. Not to mention the fact that Russia wouldn't have a base at Dalian to begin with without the Triple Intervention.
Without the railroad the Russian response to Boxer Revolt would be different because they couldn't mobilize and supply such large formations in Manchuria as in OTL, and Witte himself wouldn't have the influence he had in OTL. The butterflies from this change are huge, and quickly stack up.
Good point. Russia will probably much more circumspect about contesting Japanese interests, leaving me wondering if Japan is ever motivated to fight them.
A Japan that keeps all its marbles from the Chinese war has the Kwangtung peninsula sooner and probably annexes Korea sooner. Without the Triple Intervention, it is less motivated to participate in a European alliance system, because it feels less vulnerable and has less hankering for vengeance. Europeans may not feel motivated to reach out to Japan for balance of power reasons. Either a happily ever after territorially satiated Japan, or a Japan that went to war with the Spanish or Dutch East Indies, would be more likely than a Japan that deliberately assaults Russia.
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