Trailblazing to Victory: The Ramifications of America's First Woman President

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Prologue: The Election of 1984

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“Ladies and gentlemen of the convention:

My name is Geraldine Ferraro. I stand before you to proclaim tonight: America is the land where dreams can come true for all of us. As I stand before the American people and think of the honor this great convention has bestowed upon me, I recall the words of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., who made America stronger by making America more free. He said, "Occasionally in life there are moments which cannot be completely explained by words. Their meaning can only be articulated by the inaudible language of the heart." Tonight is such a moment for me.

My heart is filled with pride. My fellow citizens, I proudly accept your nomination for Vice President of the United States.” – Geraldine Ferraro, July 19, 1984​

It was at this moment that the Moscone Center burst into a roaring applause for Gerry Ferraro, filled with emotion as the first woman was nominated on the ticket of a major party. Many of the women in attendance were crying at the historic nature of this event and for the breakthrough it represented for women in politics. With only 24 women in the House and 1 in the Senate in the 98th Congress that was currently in session the possibility of having a woman as vice president was tantalizingly close, even if the odds were steep for the Mondale/Ferraro ticket in the face of the widely popular Reagan who appeared to be a lock for re-election by a double digit margin in November. But at this moment that was a distant thought as energy filled the convention hall and the applause and cheers continued for over one minute, with chants of “Gerry!” erupting as Ferraro attempted to continue her speech.

Picking Ferraro as his running mate was a risky choice for Mondale, who could have played safe and chosen Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis or even his former opponent in the primaries, Colorado Senator Gary Hart. But the need to provide momentum for his presidential campaign in the light of Reagan’s seemingly inevitable re-election had pushed him to choose a woman to run with him in an effort to make a play for the women’s vote and at least give him a fighting chance, however tough that chance would be. His choice had been played up for weeks as a diverse array of Democratic figures such Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros, and Kentucky Governor Martha Collins were invited to his home in Minnesota in what his former rival Jesse Jackson called a "P.R. parade of personalities." In the end, however, he had chosen Ferraro upon recommendation by New York Governor Mario Cuomo, a long-time friend of Ferraro’s, as well as his own belief that she would be able to appeal to blue collar and white ethnic voters that were crucial constituencies in the Northeast and Midwest. Yet he had only spent two days vetting her in the run-up to the 1984 DNC, which would prove problematic after the convention was over. Nevertheless, despite public perception that the choice had been motivated by pressure from women’s groups rather than a genuine belief that Ferraro was the best choice for the job, she soon proved herself to be an effective and prolific campaigner and washed away many fears that the Mondale campaign had about her.

While Ferraro had risen up the ranks within the House in her three terms there and had proven to be effective in navigating through the male-dominated halls of Capitol Hill, she had not faced the rigors and scrutiny of a national campaign. Immediately off the bat she was faced with reporting about her family’s finances, with records having been drudged up about an illegal loan her husband had made to her first campaign for Congress as well as questions from the national media regarding her and her husband’s tax returns. The pressure led to Ferraro promising to release her and her husband’s tax returns within the next month, yet that decision faced strong resistance from her husband. John Zaccaro was a real estate developer and a private man who didn’t believe that his finances were anybody’s business and he initially refused to allow his tax returns to be released. Sensing that this could prove problematic for the campaign, campaign manager Bob Beckel approached Ferraro to urge her to get her husband to release his tax returns. When this initially proved unsuccessful, he personally met with Mr. Zaccaro to explain to him the importance of releasing his tax returns so that questions regarding them did not distract from the campaign’s message. This was followed up with a personal appeal from Mondale who saw that the scrutiny Ferraro was facing was pulling focus away from his own efforts to attack Reagan for his unequal tax cuts and the growing budget deficit under his term as a result from his increased spending on the military. Yielding to the pressure, Mr. Zaccaro agreed to allow his tax returns to be released along with Ferraro’s, which finally happened on August 14.

The returns revealed that the Ferraros had a combined worth of close to $4 million, however most of that was tied up in real estate and not disposable income. Despite this questions came from the press about their wealth and how this reflected upon Ferraro’s rags-to-riches story which she had been mentioning on the campaign trail for weeks. Ferraro deftly stated this proved how far she had come from her working class upbringing and that her family wasn’t, in fact, as wealthy as they appeared to be. Questions about this soon died down, even though the Reagan campaign did continue to press this point in the lead up to the RNC. In the end, the press uproar about Ferraro’s finances subsided despite continued questions about them as well as assertions that Ferraro’s husband was connected with the mafia, which were largely ignored by mainstream media outlets except the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Having avoided a major distraction from the campaign, Mondale was able to further hone in his message of the need to ensure that every American was benefitting from the economic recovery and in questioning Reagan’s age and fitness to serve a second term as president. By the end of August after the convention bump from the DNC had faded a Gallup poll had the race at 52% to 42% with Reagan continuing to hold a double-digit lead over Mondale. After the RNC Reagan’s lead grew to 16 points, 55-39 going into September as the campaign began to heat up in the sprint to November. The Reagan campaign emphasized the improving economy and renewal of America’s military strength as proof of the success of his leadership, a message that appealed to many Americans who finally felt that America was getting back on the right track after years of economic struggle and weak leadership. President Reagan declared that it was “Morning in America” and exuded confidence that America was moving in the right direction while largely avoiding direct attacks on Mondale owing to his large lead in the polls. Meanwhile Mondale continued his attacks on Reagan’s record, bringing up the soaring deficit often on the campaign trail and criticizing the SDI program as being infeasible and unrealistic. However, these attacks proved largely ineffective as the deficit was at the back of many Americans’ minds due to the success of Reaganomics and few questioned Reagan’s strength on national security.

Ferraro also came back into the headlines as attacks by the Catholic Church for her pro-choice stance on abortion intensified in late September, with Cardinal John O’Connor, the Archbishop of New York, and Cardinal John Krol, Archbishop of Philadelphia, sharply criticizing her for her misrepresentation of the Catholic stance on the issue, having said that it was “not a monolith” and that there were a range of opinions on the issue. Cardinal Krol went as far as to call Ferraro a “traitor to the Catholic faith” on the issue of abortion and called on her to oppose the issue if she were a true Catholic. This remark received condemnation from many pro-choice Catholics who rushed to Ferraro’s defense, including New York Governor Mario Cuomo and Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, who joined Ferraro at a press conference where she stated that there were “many Catholics who do not share the view of the Catholic Church” and that attempting to label these people as being traitors to their faith was tantamount to “declaring that one cannot be a good Catholic if their own personal views on one issue do not hew to the orthodoxy of the Church.” While conservative Catholics were certainly not pleased, she was praised by many others for sticking up to pluralism within the Church. Even though this did not do much to lessen anti-abortion protests at rallies that Ferraro attended it did help the campaign among liberal and moderate Catholics in the Northeast who were tepid about their support for the Mondale/Ferraro ticket.

As September came to a close Reagan maintained a double digit margin over Mondale although it had narrowed slightly in the past few weeks, now standing at roughly 12 points, 53-41. The debates did little to change this, with Reagan stumbling in the first debate on October 7 and appearing confused, mistakenly calling the moderator, Barbara Walters, “Nancy” and mistaking the island of Grenada with the Bahamas when discussing a question about his administration’s actions in the Caribbean. Fresh questions about his age emerged and were exploited by both Mondale and Ferraro over the next few weeks. However, Reagan dispelled this in the second debate on October 21 when he joked "I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience." This garnered laughter from the audience, including from Mondale, and removed age as an issue in the remaining weeks of the campaign. While Mondale had exceeded expectations in both debates and performed well amid Reagan’s struggles, they did little to dent his lead. Neither did the vice presidential debate on October 11, during which Ferraro faced questions about her experience compared to Bush’s many years of public service and was forced to defend her readiness to be vice president, while Bush had to answer questions about Reagan’s age. The debate was widely considered a draw between Bush and Ferraro, although a few news organizations praised Ferraro for her strong defense of her position on abortion which had received applause during the debate. As the election drew to a close the last poll before Election Day showed Reagan leading Mondale by 14 points, 57% to 43%, and it was no surprise when the final results came in.

Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale by 14 points to be re-elected to a second term as president. Mondale failed to do any better than Carter did four years prior in the Electoral College, with his promise to raise taxes having alienated many Southern white and blue-collar voters who had been lifelong Democrats who voted for Reagan in droves and his liberal stances on social issues turned off many moderate suburban voters. However, his showing was much better than George McGovern’s in 1972 as he managed to win five states, including his home state of Minnesota and the states of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, as well as pulling off a bare victory in Maryland. Geraldine Ferraro was widely considered an underestimated figure in the campaign, having vigorously traveled across the country and attracted large crowds wherever she went. She continued to be seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party and there was speculation that she may attempt to run against Republican New York Senator Al D’Amato in 1986 although Ferraro denied that she had senatorial ambitions.

Despite Mondale’s landslide defeat in the presidential election, Democrats managed to make surprising gains in the Senate, winning three seats from the Republicans while narrowly holding on to their Senate seat in Kentucky where Walter Huddleston held off a strong challenge from Jefferson County Executive Mitch McConnell by less than 4,000 votes out of 1.3 million cast. The picture was less rosy in the House, where Democrats lost 13 seats to the Republicans. However, their large majority was never at risk and they still held 256 seats out of 435 after all the votes had been counted. Even though they held control of Congress, Democrats were desperate for a new direction after two straight presidential election defeats by rather large margins. At the same time, Republicans were basking in Reagan’s landslide victory as a rightward turn in American politics became clear to see. Now all eyes turned to 1988 as the battle for the soul of the Democratic Party in the Reagan era continued on.

 

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Chapter 1: Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs

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“America has always been a land of opportunity, just as my father knew when he came to this country over sixty years ago from Italy. It is a place where any dream can come true, where any one can reach their potential through hard work and persistence. I am determined now, more than ever, to make sure that stays a reality for our children and every citizen of our great nation. I don’t think President Reagan or the Republicans have been doing enough to protect opportunities for working and middle class Americans nor do I think the Democrats have done enough to show that they stand with them and understand their concerns with the problems that our country is currently facing.

It is with this recognition and a conviction to fight for the equal rights of all Americans that I announce my candidacy for President of the United States.” – Geraldine Ferraro, March 17, 1987​

Gerry Ferraro was not the first to enter the race nor was she the last but her entrance caused a splash in the media, much like her choice as Mondale’s running mate did three years prior. The national media took her campaign seriously, she had been one of the stars of 1984 presidential campaign and, while she declined to challenge Al D’Amato for the Senate in ‘86, there had been speculation for months that she was preparing to run for president. Although other women had run for president in the past – Margaret Chase Smith in 1964 and Patsy Mink and Shirley Chisholm in 1972 – none of them had come anywhere close to winning their party’s nomination. For Ferraro it was different because she had several advantages that these women lacked: name recognition, donor connections, and institutional support from prominent Democrats and outside groups. Indeed, after the declaration of her campaign she was almost immediately endorsed by the National Organization for Women (NOW) and the Women’s Political Leadership Caucus (WPLC) which pledged their support to the first serious campaign by a woman for president. Riding high after her announcement, Ferraro traveled to Iowa for her first campaign stop where she was met with an enthusiastic response from women and blue-collar voters and premiered her campaign message focused on equal rights, law and order, education reform, reigning in the deficit, and standing up for American workers.

Ten days prior little-known Illinois Senator Paul Simon had declared his own campaign for president. Fiscally conservative but socially liberal, he promised to defend the principles of the Democratic Party that had been exemplified by Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and John F. Kennedy and strongly appealed to the New Deal tradition. While the New Deal still had strong support from many elements of the Democratic base, the public at large had turned away from a belief in government solutions to the nation’s problems and toward Reagan’s calls for limited government and deregulation. Many considered his bid a long shot and he had little support outside of Illinois. Ferraro's entrance had complicated his own path to the nomination as she pulled away working class voters and liberals that Simon was seeking to rely on for his own path to victory.

Shortly after Ferraro’s campaign announcement Gov. Michael Dukakis, who had been widely expected to enter the presidential race, declared that he would not be running for president. The speculation regarding Ferraro’s entrance had given pause to his own presidential ambitions as there was a large overlap between their appeal to white ethnic voters, immigrants, and suburban voters. Once her campaign was launched Dukakis concluded that his path to the nomination was incredibly narrow and his warm opinion of Ferraro led him to end his own campaign before it even began. He was not the first potential candidate to refuse to run for president, Mario Cuomo had previously refused to enter the race himself, but he was one of the most speculated candidates to be preparing a run for the Democratic nomination and his announcement provided a much needed boost to the Ferraro campaign which was worried about the potential for Dukakis to split her vote in the Northeast and across the Midwest.

By mid-April another heavy hitter entered the race as Fmr. Senator Gary Hart, the runner-up in 1984, announced his campaign for president running once again on his “New Ideas” platform that had been more fleshed out after the criticism he had faced during the 1984 primaries for being too vague and fuzzy on what exactly it meant. He positioned himself as an opponent of special interests and wasteful defense spending, a champion of sensible budget policies and diplomacy over military, and called for investments in education, job training, and research that would move the country forward. He immediately became the frontrunner in the race for the Democratic nomination as many Democrats looking for a new direction for the party coalesced behind his campaign. However, all was not well in Hartland as rumors began to swirl about an affair with a former Miss America contestant and his opponents pressed his reputation as a womanizer to reporters covering the presidential campaign. Finally a story broke in the Washington Post on May 3 that alleged he had a sexual relationship with former Miss Colorado Carol Janson, whom he had met at a Christmas party in Boulder the previous year. Hart denied the allegations but soon pictures began to circulate showing her entering and exiting his townhome in Washington. At a televised press conference on May 4, Janson denied that her relationship with Hart was anything but as friends yet the media frenzy that ensued would not abate. In a widely covered press conference on the same day Hart dared the media to follow him around saying that he had “nothing to hide” and that they would end up bored because there was nothing for them to find. He also condemned the Washington Post for intruding into his personal life, saying that such reporting “belonged in the tabloids.” Nevertheless, Hart’s popularity plummeted and a poll released the next day showed that he was trailing Ferraro in New Hampshire by 8 points, with 35% of New Hampshire voters saying they wouldn’t vote for Hart after learning of his alleged affair. He continued to take heat throughout the week from the national press, as the allegations of the affair continued to dominate media coverage of the presidential campaign.

Coverage began to die down the following week after Hart gave another press conference with his wife fervently denying the affair and saying that he was an “honest and loving husband who is being persecuted by the national media” for something he didn’t do. Despite the press conference the damage had been done to his campaign and he fell behind Ferraro in national polls. However, new polls released by Newsweek showed that slightly over 60% of Democratic primary voters believed that Hart was telling the truth and just over half were unconcerned about the alleged affair. Still, Hart would struggle to recover from this episode which continued to dog him for the rest of his campaign for president.

The next Democrat to enter the race was Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt who had announced his campaign on May 1. Declaring that America’s economic position was declining, he promised to revive a struggling manufacturing sector, protect American workers, and work to get fair trade deals for America. Unfortunately for him press coverage of his campaign announcement was soon drowned out by Hart’s sex scandal. Regardless, he had strong connections to organized labor which he hoped would help him in Iowa and across the Midwest where he faced stiff competition from both Ferraro and Simon, who were both seeking to appeal to working class, blue-collar voters who were being adversely affected by the continuing transition of America toward a post-industrial economy.

In June two more candidates, both young moderates hoping to take advantage of Hart’s struggling campaign and their own youth to win the nomination, entered the race. The first was Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton who was being pushed by Southern Democrats and the Democratic Leadership Council to run for president and take advantage of new primary scheduling that placed all Southern contests on the same day which they hoped would allow a Southern moderate to emerge as the party’s nominee. He stressed the need to move away from solely government solutions to economic problems toward using the free market as a vehicle for wealth creation and economic growth tempered by regulations to protect consumers and the environment. At the same time he emphasized the commitment of the Democratic Party to protecting the rights of women and minorities while recognizing the need to take considered steps to achieve lasting progress. As the Democratic governor of a conservative southern state, many saw him as the candidate who would be able to adjust the party to the new political reality that Reagan’s presidency had ushered in.

Following Clinton was Delaware Senator Joe Biden who was widely considered a great public speaker and able to appeal to Baby Boomers just like Clinton. In his campaign announcement he called for a renewal of idealism and the need to put community over individualism, evoking John F. Kennedy whom he hoped to mimic in his campaign for president. On the issues he attempted to straddle the divide between the center and the left, taking a middle ground on the issue of trade while focusing on reducing poverty, supporting middle class families, continuing the war against drugs, and scraping the Strategic Defense Initiative. In a fierce battle with Clinton for the South, Biden’s message managed to resonate with voters in Iowa where he rose to third place behind Ferraro and Gephardt in the polls soon after his campaign announcement as Hart continued to struggle in the state in the wake of the Miss Colorado scandal.

The months of July and August only saw the entrance of one more prominent Democrat, Fmr. Arizona Governor Bruce Babbitt, a founding member of the DLC who had a reputation of being able to bring together opposing interests in Arizona to hammer out compromises that would benefit the state as a whole. However he also had a reputation for being an intellectual with complex ideas that were often hard to explain to regular voters and lacked charisma which showed in front of the camera after he announced his campaign for president. But it was these same ideas, including a national sales tax and a “universal needs test” to reduce social security and Medicare benefits for wealthy recipients to help reduce the budget deficit, that earned him positive coverage from the press where he was hailed as the only candidate who had ideas that would actually solve the problems that America was facing. While his nomination was still considered unlikely he had decent support in the West and drew support away from Hart in a region that he had swept in his first campaign for president three years prior, further complicating Hart's path to the nomination.

It wasn’t until September that the last major candidate entered the race for the Democratic nomination. That man was the Rev. Jesse Jackson, third-place finisher in 1984 and a champion for African-Americans and progressives. Running an anti-establishment left-wing campaign seeking to assemble a “Rainbow Coalition” of minorities, white progressives, and poor and working class voters to challenge the urge by Democratic leaders to move the party toward the center, Jackson hoped to improve upon his performance in ’84 and, if not win outright, at the very least win enough delegates to pressure the eventual Democratic nominee to take more progressive stances on the issues than they otherwise would. His campaign platform included implementing a system of single-payer universal healthcare, reversing tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans to be used to finance social welfare programs, ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment and more strictly enforcing the Voting Rights Act, and providing free community college for all Americans. Despite his campaign being widely dismissed by the national press, his strong support among blacks gave him a strong base of support in the South as Biden and Clinton split the white vote while his appeal to working class voters further muddled the state of the race in the Midwest which was already a tight competition between Ferraro, Gephardt, and Simon before Jackson had announced his campaign. Questions arose about his health, however, after he appeared unwell at his first campaign rally in Iowa which was dismissed by his campaign spokesman as “just allergies” yet sparked continued speculation from the press and from his opponents in the days and weeks that followed.

With the playing field shaken up and the candidates set, an article appeared in the Wall Street Journal in late September deriding the Democratic field as “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs” saying that “the Democrats currently running for president will struggle to prove they are up to the job” and that “the only candidates of note are Geraldine Ferraro, Gary Hart, and Jesse Jackson” but none of them demonstrated the leadership or the appeal needed to succeed Reagan as president. This spread to become a familiar talking point among political pundits but it proved the difficulty that any of the Democrats would face as the Reagan boom continued and peace reigned between America and the Soviet Union. While the Iran-Contra scandal had dented Reagan’s popularity the Republicans appeared, for the moment, to be the favorites to hold onto the White House in November 1988 although there was plenty of time for that to change. As the first debates with all eight Democratic candidates approached, it remained to be seen who would be able to rise above the rest of the pack and prove their worth and who would continue to languish in obscurity and struggle to convince voters that they were the best candidate for president.

 

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Addendum: The Quixotic Candidacy

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One of the most colorful Democrats to enter the race was Ohio congressman Jim Traficant, a conservative populist from a working class Catholic family who bucked the Democratic leadership at many turns to chart his own course in the House. He had gained notoriety in 1983 for representing himself in his own criminal case on charges of racketeering for accepting bribes and managing to get acquitted on all charges after claiming that he had accepted the bribes as part of a secret undercover investigation into corruption. Using this to win a seat in the House in 1984, he gained a reputation for being eccentric and flamboyant often being poorly dressed and ending many of his speeches in the House with “Beam me up…” His campaign announcement, largely ignored by the national press, included a call for immigration reduction and an end to illegal immigration, strong anti-abortion measures, an end to U.S. support for foreign countries, and opposition to free trade deals that adversely affected American workers. Considered to be a folk hero for the disenfranchised in his district where he remained widely popular, his campaign was written off by the mainstream media as nothing but a vanity show by Traficant. However, he did receive a warm reception from some working class Democrats disillusioned with what they saw as an increasingly out-of-touch and intellectual national party that had lost touch with traditional American values. Polling at less than 1% by the beginning of October, Traficant’s campaign was surely doomed to failure but that didn’t mean he wouldn’t put on a show along the way.

 

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Chapter 2: Beating Around the Bush

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“President Reagan and I have worked over the past seven years to turn this country around from the malaise and mismanagement of the Carter years. America is now stronger, more prosperous, and more respected around the world than when we first took office in 1981. Taxes have been cut for American families, our military is a force to be reckoned with, traditional values have been defended, and America’s future looks brighter than ever. But there is much work that we still need to do to fix the crime problem in our cities, reign in the deficit, protect individual liberty and the freedoms enshrined in our Constitution, and face the threats to peace and freedom that continue to lurk in the shadows.

That’s why I’m here today with Barbara and the boys to announce that I will be a candidate for the Republican nomination for President of the United States.” George Bush, October 5, 1987​

George Bush had been running for president ever since Reagan had won re-election to a second term in 1984, having assembled a team of advisors that included Lee Atwater to prepare him for a run in 1988. Facing skepticism from conservatives due to his previous reputation as a moderate Republican part of the old Eastern establishment that was near its death, Bush was forced to move to the right over the course of 1985 and 1986 to appeal to the increasingly conservative Republican base. However, he continued to face a reputation of being weak and a follower, doing what others told him rather than telling others what to do. He also faced the continued challenge of the Iran-Contra scandal which, while not as concerning for Republican voters as it was for Democrats and independents, brought up questions of judgement and his relationship with Reagan. Attempting to position himself as the heir to Reagan and as a mainstream conservative, Bush was a strong candidate in the race for the Republican nomination but far from invincible.

For most of 1987 he had been informally campaigning for president, lining up campaign donations, building an organization in early states, and working to gain endorsements in the so called “invisible primary” of party leaders, elected officials, and outside groups that exerted influence over the primary process and primary voters. However, he faced difficulties because of lingering trepidation over Iran-Contra, questions about his ability to appeal to Republican primary voters, and the movements by Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole to launch a campaign of his own for president. While he was able to raise millions of dollars and started off as the de facto front runner for the Republican nomination, that position was far from secure as Dole entered the race for president.

Bob Dole, long-time Kansas Senator and Gerald Ford’s running mate in 1976, had ascended to the position of Majority Leader in the Senate in 1985 after the retirement of Howard Baker before becoming Minority Leader after the GOP lost control of the Senate in 1986. While Dole had previously run for president in 1980, his campaign had failed to gain traction and he was forced to leave the race after failing to get even 1% of the vote in New Hampshire. His campaign in 1988 proved to be much more serious than his run in 1980. Despite having a reputation as a micromanager and initial reluctance to handing over control of his campaign, Dole was convinced by close allies that he needed to take Bush seriously despite polling that showed them roughly even in the race for the Republican nomination. Thus, he hired a campaign manager early so he could keep up with Bush as the race heated up. After much searching, he picked John Sears, a campaign advisor for Nixon who had run Reagan’s 1976 and 1980 campaigns, having been fired from the latter during the primaries due to conflicts with other Reagan allies. However, this came over the opposition of Dole allies to hiring Sears, particularly those in New Hampshire who were concerned that he would attempt the same power grab he did during Reagan’s campaign in 1980. The Dole campaign focused resources on creating a robust campaign organization in the early states during the run-up to his campaign announcement, which came five days after Bush’s. In it Dole declared the need for common-sense solutions to the nation’s problems while appealing to conservatives by calling for a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, promising not to raise taxes to lower the deficit, and vowing to defend family values. He immediately became Bush's strongest opponent for the Republican nomination and enjoyed support from his Senate colleagues who stood behind their leader.

While Bush and Dole were the clear frontrunners in the race for the Republican nomination, they faced a potential insurgent campaign from the right led by Christian televangelist and Baptist minister Pat Robertson. Founder of the Christian Broadcasting Network which was watched by millions across the country, Robertson already had an established base of support among evangelical Christians who had helped him launch his campaign after three million signed up as volunteers by his deadline of August 1987. However, Robertson was not deeply connected to the Republican Party and had never run a national campaign before. In a move that shocked many Republican insiders he managed to poach Roger Stone from the campaign of New York Congressman Jack Kemp, a supply-sider with libertarian views on social issues who had announced his campaign in June but was struggling to gain support in the polls, and hire him as his campaign manager. Many were surprised that Stone would join the campaign of someone as religious as Robertson but the move was seen as a worrying sign for both the Bush and Dole camps as Robertson began to rail against them as part of the old moderate Republican establishment while positioning himself as a mainstream conservative alternative to both Bush and Dole. By October he was inching up in the polls as his campaign began harnessing his grassroots following to gain support in conservative strongholds in the South and in early states. His campaign had been dismissed in the beginning by both Bush and Dole and the national media as a long shot but that perception changed as his support began to grow. Now he was being seen as a serious contender although he still remained far behind both of the frontrunners in the polls.

The aforementioned Kemp had been seen as a promising candidate when he initially announced his campaign on June 15, 1987. A former football player who became involved with politics in the 1960s, Kemp had become a proponent for supply-side economics in the late 1970s and was considered by many to be instrumental to the inclusion of supply-side ideas in Reagan’s economic plan early in his presidency. His star having risen through his work on taxes and his role in the formulation of the 1984 Republican platform, he was viewed as the heir to the Reagan legacy and a leading contender for the Republican nomination by 1986. However, he had long held more liberal views on social issues including his support of affirmative action and the rights of illegal immigrants as well as certain civil liberties for gays alienated many social conservatives that formed an important segment of the Republican base. Although Kemp made attempts to reach out to conservatives in his campaign throughout the summer of 1987 into the early fall, he faced difficulties as public attention turned to the fight between Bush and Dole and he made the mistake of running his campaign as though he were a top-tier candidate instead of the underdog that he was. By mid-October he was only polling at 7% and was hoping to use the upcoming debates to give his campaign the boost it needed. Whether that would come to pass was yet to be seen.

Two more notable candidates had entered the race for the Republican nomination by the end of October 1987. The first was Fmr. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld who had previously served as a Congressman from Illinois and as Gerald Ford’s Chief of Staff before being nominated as Secretary of Defense in 1975. A part-time advisor on matters of foreign and defense policy over the course of Reagan’s presidency in addition to his work in the private sector, Rumsfeld hoped to position himself as an experienced voice on defense policy and a fervent adherent to Milton Friedman’s free market economic policies which he believed would further the economic growth of the Reagan years and further reduce the role of the federal government in the economy. His campaign was hampered by his low name recognition and fundraising struggles, despite receiving the vocal endorsement of Milton Friedman in late August who called Rumsfeld the “most strident supporter of a free market economy” and the man best positioned to continue the Reagan Revolution.

The other candidate was Fmr. Secretary of State Alexander Haig who had gained notoriety during Reagan’s assassination attempt in 1981 when he declared that “I am in control here” while Reagan was hospitalized despite the clear order of succession that existed in the case of the president’s incapacitation. Haig was a relatively well-known as a result of this as well as because of his role early in the Reagan administration although this didn’t show in the polls, where he polled at less than 5% consistently by the end of August. Running on his experience and his ability to serve as an alternative to the other candidates in the race, Haig struggled to gain appeal in the face of the dominance of Bush and Dole in the race. As a result, he launched into a frenzy of attacks against Bush, criticizing his leadership qualities, his role in Iran-Contra, and calling him a “wimp” at a campaign stop in New Hampshire. Routinely dismissed by many Republicans as a quixotic candidate who wasn’t a serious contender for the party’s nomination, his attacks on Bush led several newspapers to focus more critically on Bush’s record as Vice President.

Shortly after announcing his campaign, Bush began to receive negative coverage regarding the Iran-Contra affair, which he had hoped to avoid for as long as possible but which it seemed inevitable he would have to answer questions about. He denied having known about what President Reagan and his national security advisors were up to, saying that he was usually not part of such decisions. This was immediately seized upon by Dole, who questioned how much of a role Bush actually had in the Reagan administration if he wasn’t even involved in such sensitive national security discussions. Bush shot back, saying that he was involved in many national security discussions because of his previous experience as Director of the CIA but that he had been kept out of meetings regarding the Iran-Contra affair. Democratic candidate Geraldine Ferraro weighed in to the back-and-forth between Bush and Dole when she issued a statement saying that she was “deeply concerned about the cover-up of the Iran-Contra affair by officials in the National Security Council” and that it was “concerning that Vice President Bush has yet to give a full public account of his involvement in Iran-Contra despite claiming that he wanted to get to the truth.” In a statement to the press Bush once again said that he had not been involved in the meetings regarding Iran-Contra and that his previous statements and recently published book which partially addressed it “gave the answers to the questions currently being asked about my involvement in Iran-Contra.” However, the section of his book addressing Iran-Contra didn’t give a full account of Bush’s knowledge about it and provided unsatisfactory for many reporters, who continued to ask him questions about Iran-Contra in the lead up to the first Republican debate on October 21.

Bush took a hit in the polls following the questions about Iran-Contra, falling four points from 29% to 25% and ending up a point behind Dole while bleeding support primarily to Rumsfeld who was seen by some former Bush supporters as an acceptable alternative and “Bush without Iran-Contra.” Despite the bump Rumsfeld still only hovered around 5% in national polls although he was beginning to gain some steam in New Hampshire, a worrying sign for the Bush campaign. The first debate began to take on greater importance as Bush sought to regain momentum in the polls and dispel concerns about Iran-Contra while his opponents saw an opening to tear down Bush while boosting their own chances in the race for the Republican nomination.

 

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Chapter 3: Trials and Tribulations

“There have been reports, very credible reports, that Geraldine Ferraro’s husband has connections to the mafia. Disgusting. We don’t need Mr. Al Capone in the White House with a President Ferraro sending taxpayer money to his criminal pals back in New York. We already have criminals raiding the public coffers for the benefit of Wall St. billionaires, now we could get the mob in on it as well.

So I have one question for Mrs. Ferraro the mafia wife, who are you going to pay off so you can win the Democratic nomination? Beam me up, Barbara.” – Jim Traficant, October 19, 1987​

The first Democratic debate hosted by ABC News anchor Barbara Walters was much more interesting than had been expected in the days leading up to it. Many in the media had been surprised by the inclusion of the eccentric Jim Traficant but there was a widespread assumption that Ferraro and Jackson would shine in the debate while everyone else struggled to get their messages out. Instead both Ferraro and Jackson struggled while several of the unknown candidates performed much better than expected. Traficant’s tirade against Ferraro’s husband for alleged connections to the mafia threw her off kilter and put her on the defensive, leading her to accuse him of ethnic stereotyping and roundly dismissing the allegations as a ludicrous conspiracy theory with no foundation in reality. Despite her strong rebuttal, she ended up struggling to shake-off Traficant as he repeatedly interrupted her to question her claims to understand working-class Americans and her fitness for office. At the same time, Jackson struggled to articulate coherent answers to some of the questions posed to him, bringing up further concerns about his health as he appeared tired at the debate. Gary Hart, the former frontrunner who was now languishing in fourth place, put in a competent performance but failed to put away questions about his campaign debt from 1984 and alleged infidelity to his wife. Meanwhile Biden, Babbitt, and Gephardt all put it well received performances, particularly Babbitt who managed to come off as a relatable and experienced ex-governor with fresh new ideas for the nation. Clinton and Simon failed to have any memorable moments as the back-and-forth between Ferraro and Traficant limited their time to speak.

Biden was considered to have been the winner of the debate due to his strong answers on questions of the economy and foreign policy, followed by Babbitt and Ferraro. Traficant, however, was one of the most widely talked about candidates after his breakout performance in the debate and tough questioning of Ferraro, which the mainstream media thought was too harsh but which appealed to the more conservative blue-collar voters that Traficant was targeting. A post-debate poll showed him surging to third place in Iowa and some political pundits were beginning to question whether Traficant should now be taken seriously as a candidate after the debate.

The Republican debate two days later was no less interesting. Vice President Bush faced withering attacks from Pat Robertson and Alex Haig, the former accusing him of being a flip-flopper and a “moderate old-school Republican masquerading as a Reagan conservative” while the latter questioned his leadership skills and called him a “wimp” who “didn’t have a single whimper about a ban on short and medium-range ballistic missiles.” Bush fired back saying that Robertson lacked the experience to be president while hitting Haig for being unable to work with others and saying that he “resigned from the Reagan administration for a reason.” He was embattled throughout the rest of the debate with questions about Iran-Contra and a stumble on a question about the deficit. The main beneficiary of these attacks was Bob Dole, who painted himself as an experienced, common-sense conservative who would defend Reagan’s legacy while working across the aisle to rein in the deficit and improve America’s education system. In comparison to the aggressive attacks by Robertson and Haig and Bush’s dithering responses, Dole came off as presidential and a viable alternative to Bush, much to the chagrin of Donald Rumsfeld who was hoping to take up that mantle but failed to communicate it during the debate. Jack Kemp put in a good performance but was overshadowed by Dole and the attacks on Bush. The media declared Dole the winner of the debate, with Robertson and Haig coming in second and third respectively while Bush came in a disappointing fifth place behind Kemp. Both Dole and Robertson saw surges in national polls following the debate while Haig started creeping up in Michigan and Iowa. Bush saw his standing in the polls continue to fall but vowed to come back in later debates. Any expectations of him being the inevitable nominee, however, had been shattered and the race was shaping up to be extremely competitive between Bush, Dole, and Robertson.

On October 27 a bombshell was dropped on the Clinton campaign when Gennifer Flowers, a model and actress, came forward saying that she was in a ten-year relationship with Gov. Bill Clinton who she had met back in 1977. Immediately the still relatively unknown Arkansas governor stormed onto national headlines with every major media outlet picking up the story by the beginning of November. In the face of this scandal Clinton appeared in a widely-watched interview on 60 Minutes with his wife Hillary to deny the allegations. The next day Flowers held a press conference with tape recordings of phones conversations with Clinton earlier in the year in which Clinton asked her to deny that they had ever had a relationship with each other. While the authenticity of the recordings could not be verified by news organizations, the damage had been done to the Clinton campaign as he began to fall in national polls. Geraldine Ferraro, while sympathizing with Clinton for the scrutiny of his personal life, expressed concerns about the phone call and the possibility that Clinton lied about the affair, saying that America needed a president who would “tell people the truth instead of trying to cover it up” which played well with Democratic primary voters who were still incensed about the Iran-Contra affair. Joe Biden expressed a similar sentiment, saying that the next president needed to show “high ethical standards and integrity” and that Clinton’s conduct, if it was true, failed to show either. Other candidates also chimed in with their own concerns over the allegations except for Gary Hart who was notably silently, likely because he didn’t want to drudge up further questions about his own sex scandal.

The final nail in the coffin for the Clinton campaign came on November 5 when the New York Times privately approached Gov. Clinton threatening to run a story about another woman who was prepared to come forward to claim she had a sexual relationship with Gov. Clinton during his time in office. Facing collapsing support and interest from tabloids on both his wife and daughter, Clinton announced on November 6 that he was suspending his campaign for president and returning to Little Rock to continue his duties as governor. The announcement sent shockwaves through the race as White voters in the South suddenly came into play for both the Biden and Ferraro camps while the hopes of Southern Democrats of having a Southern moderate nominated were dashed and they were forced to regroup and figure out which of the remaining candidates in the race they would support.

Debates for both parties in November saw a rebound for both Ferraro and Bush who put in strong performances that made up for their stumbles in the first debate, both having been declared by the media as the winners of their respective debates although for Bush it was nearly a draw between him and Dole in post-debate polls. While Ferraro faced lingering questions throughout November regarding her family’s finances and having the foreign policy experience to be president, she gained crucial momentum when she was endorsed by Fmr. Vice President Walter Mondale, her running mate in 1984, and long-time friend and New York Governor Mario Cuomo. Both of them stood behind her as being the Democrat’s best chance for victory in November 1988, saying that she had the cross-over appeal to win back Reagan Democrats while showing the leadership and grit necessary to be America’s first woman president. Consolidating support in New York and pulling ahead in Minnesota following these endorsements, Ferraro continued on as the frontrunner for the nomination even as Biden began to catch-up following the withdrawal of Bill Clinton. It came as a shock at the end of the month, then, when a poll of Iowa revealed that Biden had fallen behind Ferraro and Gephardt to third place from first where he had been following his victory in the first Democratic primary debate. Even more surprising was the surge of Gov. Babbitt who had gone from last to fourth in the span of a month, eclipsing both Sen. Paul Simon, who was struggling to raise enough money for his campaign, and Rep. Jim Traficant, whose post-debate surge had worn off by the end of November. He had gained from Gov. Clinton’s exit from the race in the state as he positioned himself as another moderate governor who would move the Democratic Party into a new direction and was managing to pull in many of his former supporters. Biden helped when he said that ethanol was “not an effective way to reduce pollution from car emissions” and that he believed that the ethanol tax credit was a “bunch of malarkey” that took money away from programs that would help middle class families, a gaffe that saw his support in Iowa drop dramatically.

On the Republican side Pat Robertson continued to gain support, particularly in the South, as his grassroots conservative campaign proved effective in reaching conservatives who didn’t see either Bush or Dole as being conservative enough and were looking for a more right-wing alternative to both. Of particular alarm for both the Dole and Bush camps was an Iowa poll released on November 17 which showed Robertson running even with Dole in Iowa as, surprisingly enough, Haig began to surge in the state and pull support away from Bush as his attacks began to prove effective. Meanwhile in New Hampshire Dole got a major boost when he received the endorsement of Sen. Warren Rudman, a moderate centrist who had won re-election in 1986 to a second term in the Senate. Polls had shown Dole with a lead in the state and the endorsement only solidified that. Bush was lobbying hard for the endorsement of New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu but, so far, had had little success as the attacks against him continued to weigh on his campaign. In an effort to fight back against Robertson’s attacks, Bush released a TV ad attacking Robertson for embellishing his service during the Korean War, where he had avoided front-line service despite claims to the contrary. It included testimony from Pete McCloskey, a former California representative who had served with Robertson during the war and was currently the target of a slander charge by Robertson for his statements regarding the matter. The ad hurt Robertson and blunted his momentum while souring relations between Bush and Robertson, who proceeded to go into a back-and-forth of attacks as the Republican primary became increasingly nasty and bitterly contested. While Bush was still leading in polls nationally by the end of November, his lead was tenuous as Dole continued to gain support and Robertson held steady at roughly 20%.

Tragedy struck the race for president when Jesse Jackson collapsed at a campaign rally in Richmond, Virginia on December 6. Questions about his health had been circulating for months and he had been forced to cancel a few rallies in November as his campaign continued to deny that he had any health problems. His collapse, however, had made it clear that they had been covering up a more serious health issue. Indeed, it turns out that Jackson had been complaining about neck pain and stiffness for several months and that his campaign had failed to disclose it because they didn’t believe it was a serious problem. He was rushed to the hospital where doctors discovered that Jackson had an aneurysm in an artery at the base of his skull that had been leaking for a few months before finally bursting during his rally. He was immediately put into surgery where surgeons did their best to repair the artery and stop the bleeding. However, it was too late for them to save him.

Jesse Jackson, only 46 years old, was pronounced dead shortly after midnight on December 7, 1987 having died of a brain aneurysm. The nation mourned at the loss of the civil rights icon and two-time presidential candidate who had been the founder of PUSH (People United to Serve Humanity), a group dedicated to expanding economic opportunities for blacks and poor citizens of all races. In a statement released by the White House, President Reagan said that “although [he] might have disagreed with Mr. Jackson’s politics there was no doubt in [his] mind that Jackson was an exemplary citizen who showed what it meant to fight for the betterment of his fellow man.” All of the Democratic candidates temporarily suspended campaign activities out of respect for Jackson, as memorials were held in African-American communities and progressive enclaves across the country to honor his memory. His memorial service on December 14 was packed with friends, family, and supporters as well as Ferraro, Biden, Babbitt, Hart, and Gephardt. Even Walter Mondale showed up to pay respects to his primary foe from 1984. With Jackson’s death the race in the South was blown wide open as the black vote, which had previously consolidated behind his campaign, came up for grabs. With Super Tuesday less than three months away there was no way of knowing who would emerge victorious in the South but whoever did would likely be the favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

 

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Chapter 4: The 1987 Gubernatorial Elections

"I am proud of the candidates we have put up for office of governor in the Southern states that are up this year. All of them are exceptional men who stand for the principles of our party while understanding the people of their respective states. I have no doubt that come November 3rd we will see each of these candidates emerge victorious and prove that the Democratic Party is still in control in the South despite Reagan's two victories in the region." - DNC Chairman Paul Kirk, September 19, 1987
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While the presidential race began to take shape for both parties a trio of off-year gubernatorial elections in the South were being contested and were no less interesting to boot. Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana were all states that had been trending Republican at the presidential level since the 1960s but had been dominated by Democrats down ballot for over a century with only the occasional rare victory by a Republican. However, with the Republican Party moving to the right and the Democrats slowly drifting leftward, it was only a matter of time before their stranglehold over southern governorships and legislatures would be shattered. Whether 1987 would be the beginning of that was unclear, but signs began to emerge that perhaps Democratic control was beginning to crack, at least a little bit.

Kentucky was nearing the end of the term of its first woman governor, Martha Layne Collins, who had worked to reform the state’s education system and keep jobs in the state, most notably working out a deal to keep a Toyota factory from shuttering its doors. Despite clashes with the state legislature over her proposals and requests for tax increases to fund her education plan, she ended her term in office with a high popularity. Due to Kentucky’s constitution preventing governors from serving consecutive terms, she was ineligible to run for re-election, leaving the Democratic nomination for governor completely open.

Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear was the early frontrunner for the Democratic nomination with his main competition being Fmr. Gov. Julian Caroll and conservative businessman and millionaire Wallace Wilkinson, considered a long shot for the nomination. He had the backing of the Collins administration and several labor unions and his nomination seemed inevitable. However, the race was roiled when Fmr. Gov. John Y. Brown Jr., famous for his time as CEO of Kentucky Fried Chicken during the 1960s and early 1970 before becoming governor in 1979, entered the race days before the filing deadline. Immediately he shot up in the polls to become the frontrunner, leading to a strong reaction from Beshear who launched a negative ad blitz against Brown accusing him of having a lavish lifestyle and bringing up the corrupt cases of several of his associates. Brown shot back by defending himself and accusing Beshear of lacking anything positive to say about his own policies. The fight between Beshear and Brown threatened to allow an outsider to come through the middle to claim the nomination, something the Wallace Wilkinson almost did after coming from last place to second in the few primary polls that were taken following his attacks on all of the other candidates in the race as political insiders. Soon, however, Brown and Beshear began to attack Wilkinson’s questionable business record and his surge was abated. Brown ended up securing the nomination by 5 points with Wilkinson in second and Beshear in third.

On the Republican side party insiders coalesced around the candidacy of Mitch McConnell, former Jefferson County Executive and the 1984 Senate nominee who had come within a hair of unseating Walter “Dee” Huddleston. His strong showing had convinced state party leaders that he was their best chance at capturing the governor’s mansion and, despite facing token opposition in the primary, he was nominated as the Republican candidate for governor. Enjoying deep support from the state and national party, he proved to be a formidable candidate and the Brown v. McConnell match-up suddenly turned the race into a toss-up although many gave an advantage to Brown who still enjoyed support from his previous term as governor.

McConnell ran on a more moderate and centrist platform, touting his fiscally conservative credentials while also promising to raise the state minimum wage and protect the rights of unions in a bid to appeal to Democrats who still vastly outnumbered Republicans among registered voters. Brown, meanwhile, touted his scandal free administration and the progress he made in turning around the state’s economic situation during his term when Kentucky had been suffering from economic recession. However, he soon faced attacks from McConnell on multiple fronts, accusing him of being an “absentee governor” for his hands-off approach to governing, bringing up the connections of his associates to drug smuggling rings, and reviving Beshear’s attacks on his lavish lifestyle to paint him as out of touch with regular Kentuckians. While Brown attempted to push back against these accusations the impression of him as an out-of-touch and corrupt politician who was not serious about governing Kentucky proved too hard to shake-off. Polls remained tight going into Election Day but when the results came in few were surprised.

Mitch McConnell was duly elected Governor of Kentucky by a bare margin of less than 1% of the vote, becoming the first Republican to be elected governor since Louie Nunn 20 years prior. While facing Democratic control of the state legislature, many saw his election as a sign of a change in the state that had been long dominated by the Democratic Party. Whether that would be true was too early to tell, but political observers were keeping a close watch on his term to see if it foretold anything about the future of Kentucky politics.

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Edwin Edwards had long been a larger than life figure in Louisiana. A charismatic populist in the vein of the great Huey Long, he had managed to get himself elected Governor of Louisiana three times in less than 20 years. Dogged by minor corruption scandals during his first two terms, Edwards still maintained widespread popularity in Louisiana that had allowed him to defeat his successor, David Treen, to be elected to a third term in 1983. Flamboyant and colorful, he had become notorious over the years for his one-line zingers that kept his opponents on their feet and struggling to respond. Things have taken a turn for the worse for Edwards, however, in his third term as governor. Facing a large budget shortfall due to a decrease in tax revenue from the oil industry as a result of a drop in oil prices, Edwards pushed through a massive $750 million tax increase that proved widely unpopular among Louisianans. At the same time Edwards had to stand trial on charges of mail fraud, obstruction of justice, and bribery that brought up many details of his questionable conduct including frequent gambling trips to Las Vegas under various pseudonyms. While he ended up acquitted on all charges along with several of his associates, his popularity continued to fall further as he prepared to run for re-election to a fourth term as governor.

The embattled governor faced strong opposition from within his own party. Democratic congressmen Jerry Huckaby, a moderate Democratic with strong ties to the sugar industry, and Billy Tauzin, a conservative Democrat of Cajun descent, challenged him in the state’s “jungle primary” for governor. They were joined by Democratic Secretary of State Jim Brown, former Democratic congressman Speedy O. Long, and Republican congressman Bob Livingston. Of all the candidates in the race, Edwins preferred to go up against the uncharismatic and boring Livingston who, despite his support in suburban New Orleans, faced an uphill battle in a state where only one Republican had been elected governor since Reconstruction. Despite his unpopularity as governor, Edwards maintained a strong base of support and political skills that virtually guaranteed that he would move on to a second-round. As such, it became a battle between his opponents as to who would carry the mantle as the anti-Edwards candidate in the second round with no clear candidate emerging as the top challenger to Edwards as the campaign heated up.

Soon enough, however, Jerry Huckaby began to rise in the polls. While he lacked Edwards charisma he made up for that in a spirited call to arms against the incumbent governor’s corruption and his proclivity for tax increases over spending cuts which had cut into the income of many Louisianans during a time of national economic recovery. Although he was attacked for his closeness to agricultural interests he made up for this with a strong performance in a candidate’s forum during which many of his Democratic opponents struggled to answer whether they would support Edwards in a second round should they not get in. Huckaby, however, said that he would rather “vote for the Creature from the Black Lagoon” than support another term of the unpopular and corrupt Edwards. He shot up in the polls after this although he continued to lag behind Edwards as conservatives and anti-Edwards moderates split between Edwards’ opponents for governor. As the day of the first round loomed, it was still uncertain whether Edwards would be facing a fellow Democrat or the Republican Livingston.

Edwards managed to come first in the second-round despite his unpopularity, a precondition for his contestation of the second round of the election. He would be facing Jerry Huckaby who pulled ahead of Livingston despite Livingston’s stronger than expected performance in the first round of the election. The Democratic hold on Louisiana’s governorship was guaranteed but which Democrat it would be was far from certain. While Edwards faced perhaps what was his worse possible opponent – a moderate Democrat largely untainted by scandal – his opponent was not the most charismatic figure in the Louisiana congressional delegation and while he certainly was better able to connect with people than Livingston he still paled in comparison to Edwards. This was further compounded by the surprise endorsement of Edwards by Secretary of State Jim Brown, who had waffled on supporting Edwards in second round during his own campaign for governor.

As the campaign progressed polls remained tight as Edwards blasted Huckaby as a tool for corporate interests while Huckaby promised to clean up state government and to pass no tax increases should he be elected governor while continuing to hold Edwards’ feet to the fire for his corruption during his time in office. Huckaby’s campaign was boosted when he received the endorsement of his former rival and fellow congressman Billy Tauzin a week before the run-off was to be held. Huckaby retained a slight advantage going into Election Day but Edwards had held him tight throughout the campaign with his scathing attacks on Huckaby’s record and appeals to the black community. As the results rolled in the race was still very much in the air and it was uncertain which of the two men would end up winning.

In the end Edward’s corruption trial and tax increase proved to be too much for Louisiana voters to bear and Jerry Huckaby was elected as the next governor of Louisiana. Despite being defeated, Edwards vowed in his concession speech that he would be back again in the future to save the people of Louisiana from the control of corporate interests under Huckaby. In light of the struggles of his third term this was hard to believe for many political observers but Edwards was not a man to be underestimated.

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The sleepiest race of the three was in Mississippi to replacing retiring governor Bill Allain. His term had been marked by an attempt to rewrite the state’s nearly 100 year old constitution which failed to pass the state legislature and efforts to crack down on illegal drugs which had resulted in the seizure of nearly a ton of cocaine over the course of his term. He also secured the passage of a constitutional amendment to allow the governor to succeed himself in office, opening up the opportunity for him to run for a second term. Gov. Allain, however, ultimately passed and the Democratic nomination remained open. With an open race up, Republicans were hoping that it would finally be their moment to take control of the Mississippi governorship for the first time since the party’s founding while Democrats were looking to extend their rule over Mississippi for another four years.

On the Democratic side the frontrunner for the nomination was Ray Mabus, the State Auditor who had overseen an FBI sting operation that recovered millions of dollars in public funds that had been misspent or stolen by corrupt county officials. His efforts had earned him praise from Mississippi’s newspapers and cemented his reputation as an anti-corruption crusader. His main opponents were businessman Mike Sturdivant and Congressman Wayne Dowdy. The race proved to be relatively tame and low-key and while Sturdivant and Dowdy attempted to put up strong opposition to Mabus, Dowdy in particular who was hoping to appeal to rural voters who were increasingly trending toward the Republican Party, both of them ultimately failed to stop Mabus from winning the Democratic nomination by a decent margin.

For the GOP the main candidates were businessman Jack Reed and Fmr. Congressman Webb Franklin. Reed enjoyed a fundraising advantage over Franklin, who had been recently defeated in his bid for a third term in his majority-black congressional district. However, Franklin still remained popular with Republicans in his former district and attempted to appeal to the increasingly conservative base of the party in Mississippi as the national party continued its movement toward the right under Reagan. While Reed laid forth a visionary plan for tuition free community college, Franklin riled up Republican voters with appeals to racial politics and limited government. The race remained tight but in the end Franklin came out on top by roughly 3,000 to win the Republican nomination for governor.

Mabus ran a forward looking campaign with his slogan being “Mississippi Will Never Be Last Again.” He promised to improve the state’s education system while working to attract businesses to the state by putting its past of racial discrimination and segregation behind and showing that Mississippi would be a face for the “New South”. Franklin, on the other hand, ran a more divisive campaign appealing to traditional values and a vow to lower taxes and reign in government spending. His campaign soon came under attack from Mabus, however, over a campaign ad he had aired during his 1986 re-election campaign for Congress that showcased him in front of Confederate monuments, painting him as being caught in the past and unable to prove that the state had moved forward from its painful past. While Franklin defended his ad saying that he was standing up for Mississippi’s heritage, the attack had energized black voters and hurt him with suburban and urban voters in the state who were increasingly hoping to see Mississippi become an attractive place for businesses that might be turned off by a revival of racial tensions in the state. Mabus opened up a stable lead in the polls following this attack that lasted through Election Day.

It was little surprise when Ray Mabus was declared the winner of Mississippi’s gubernatorial election a little more than half an hour into the count. His nearly ten point margin of victory was larger than had been anticipated at the beginning of the campaign, with many attributing it to his attacks on Franklin and increased turnout from blacks who voted for him in droves. Mabus was heralded by the national media as a “face of the New South” who had been elected with the help of not just blacks but poor whites and yuppies (young urban professionals). While Franklin had done better than the previous two Republican nominees for governor he failed to set a record with his performance and served as a cautionary tale for Republicans who were hoping to secure victory in state that Democrats had long dominated.

 

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Chapter 5: The Sprint to Iowa

“It is time for us to elect another true conservative in the vein of President Reagan to the White House, not Vice President Flip-Flopper who only started becoming a real conservative when the liberal old-guard of the Republican Party told him that’s the only way he could win. I have always believed in our lord and savior Jesus Christ, the need for a limited government to allow the free market to do its work, the protection of family values, and an end to the overzealous regulatory state of the Democrats which has crushed businesses under the weight of a bloated bureaucracy.

God has told me that there are great things in store for America but they won’t happen if we have Georgie in the White House pretending to be something he’s not: a strong conservative leader who will do all he can to continue Reagan’s legacy and the prosperity and renewed confidence he has brought to our country.” – Pat Robertson, January 7, 1988​

Pat Robertson had been an unexpected presence in the Republican primary since his entrance in September. Widely panned by political strategists and party officials as being a long-shot for the nomination, his scathing attacks on Vice President Bush and energized base of support amongst Evangelical Christians, conservative Republicans, and white, working-class voters in the Midwest proved stronger than many had thought when he had announced his campaign. However, his campaign had started to lose steam as he faced attacks on his military record from Bush as well as concerns from many Republican voters concerning his colorful prophecies in the past predicting that the end of the world was soon to come, only to be proved wrong when the date passed and nothing happened, in addition to general concerns that his evangelizing on the campaign trail was bringing politics and religion too close for comfort for many. Despite these struggles his campaign continued to chug along and received a boost when he was endorsed by New Hampshire Senator Gordon Humphrey in early January, a social conservative with a following among right-wing Republicans, giving him renewed momentum in the state. At the same time he began to open up a lead in Iowa polls, running six points ahead of Dole in a poll released on January 8, sending some alarm through the Dole campaign which was also seeking a victory in Iowa.

Meanwhile the Bush campaign continued to languish as doubts continued about his leadership and his recent conversion to Reagan’s brand of conservatism that sowed suspicion among conservatives. White House Chief of Staff Howard Baker remarked that Bush “was making it hard for President Reagan to support his bid for president” as the embattled Vice President endured attack after attack on his record. Bush began to go on the attack, criticizing Dole as a “straddler” on the issues and faulting him for his tepid support of Reagan during the Iran-Contra Affair while Dole fired back and accused Bush of being an “opportunist to the core” and telling him to “stop lying about [Dole’s] record” and instead focus on the issues that matter to the American people. With Bush and Dole distracted with their attacks on each other as the Michigan caucuses approached, the contest had become a low-key affair as many assumed that Dole would emerge victorious in Michigan due to his organization in the state and a floundering Bush who had lost a lot of ground to Haig in the state over the past few weeks. This assumption would soon be challenged and change the conventional wisdom for the rest of the race.

On the Democratic side the death of Jesse Jackson had led to a scramble for black votes in the South between Ferraro and Biden as both sought to capitalize on the large number of undecided voters to gain enough support to sweep the South come Super Tuesday and put themselves well on the way to clinching the Democratic nomination. This was put on hold, however, when Bruce Babbitt put in an exceptional performance in the December presidential debate on the 11th, having worked with his campaign staff to boil down his complex policy positions into more digestible bits which allowed him to come off as a much more relatable to many voters who had been turned off by his wonkiness. He was widely considered the winner of the debate and while Ferraro and Biden had put in respectable performances it didn’t match Babbitt’s. Post-debate polls showed him gaining ground around the country among undecided voters, many of them former Clinton supporters or would-be Hart voters who had been turned away by his sex scandal. His support in both Iowa and New Hampshire surged further, with him reaching second place in Iowa ahead of Gephardt for the first time in the campaign.

As December turned into January the race saw the departure of Sen. Paul Simon on January 5, who suspended his campaign after he ran out of money due to difficulty gaining traction in early primary states. This served as a boon for both Gephardt and Ferraro who had been courting the same working class, blue-collar voters as Simon and would gain the most from his exit from the race. Ferraro and Gephardt also received key labor endorsements, Ferraro gaining the backing of the Retail Workers Union and the American Federation of Teachers, while Gephardt was endorsed by the United Steelworkers and United Mineworkers, having previously been endorsed by the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the United Auto Workers. While Gephardt maintained an advantage in union support, Ferraro was putting up a fierce fight that underscored the competition between both Gephardt and Ferraro in the industrial states of the Midwest where unions remained strong even as their influence was waning all across the country.

At the same time the race for the South was getting even more chaotic as Gary Hart got into the fray, receiving a surprise endorsement from Georgia Senator Wyche Fowler in early January who praised him for his “new leadership for the Democratic Party” despite his tarnished image. Meanwhile Ferraro received an endorsement from Coretta Scott King, who said that she would be “a leader for women of all races” and a champion for human rights across the globe while Biden was endorsed by Arkansas Senator Dale Bumpers and Tennessee Senator Al Gore who both applauded his experience and moderate, sensible leadership that were what they thought America needed at this time. The campaigns were also fine-tuning their messaging in the South, with Ferraro focusing on her law and order credentials and fiscal conservatism, Biden on his moderate image and connections to the black community, and Hart on his “new ideas” and commitment to education reform. With Super Tuesday still a month and a half away there was still a lot of time for the race to shift and many observers noted that it was still unclear who would be able to emerge ahead as Southern Democrats continued to reel from the loss of two candidates who had maintained strong support in the region.

Mid-January was marked by a shock in the Republican race as Pat Robertson pulled off an upset in the Michigan Caucuses on January 14, taking 30% of the vote and with it all 77 of the state’s delegates with Haig in second with 21%, Dole in third with 19%, and Bush all the way in last place having earned only 6% of the vote. His victory was attributed to his strong get-out-the-vote efforts across the state which had been fueled by his large volunteer network and the fragmentation of the moderate vote between Haig and Dole which allowed him to sneak through the middle to emerge victorious. The media buzz afterwards was intense as the Robertson campaign began to be taken seriously by the national media and Republican strategists who had assumed that Robertson’s extreme stances on some of the issues and controversial statements in the past regarding his reception of messages from God would make him a short-lived phenomenon that would come crashing down soon enough. Now he was seriously considered as a contender for the Republican nomination, with even some in the media speculating whether he could actually end up winning the Republican nomination by sweeping the South and riding the momentum through the Midwest and Western states.

The Bush campaign began to grow extremely nervous at his poor performance in Michigan and the surge in support for Al Haig, whose attacks on Bush over Iran-Contra had seen him capture a lot of Bush’s support in the state as voters turned to the former general and Secretary of State as a palatable alternative to the weak leadership of Bush and extremism of Robertson. Lee Atwater proposed hitting Haig hard on his flagrant violation of the constitution during Reagan’s assassination, his difficulties working with other members of the Reagan administration, and his rocky tenure as Secretary of State painting him as someone who would be incapable of being an effective president and Commander-in-Chief. Bush agreed and the campaign released an ad in Iowa criticizing Haig for his failures as Secretary of State and suggestion of a “nuclear warning shot” to deter the Soviet Union, saying that he proved that he was not up to the job of engaging in international affairs and would be dangerous as president. While Haig pushed back against it, saying that his tenure was being mischaracterized by Bush, it proved damaging nevertheless and his support began to fade in the state as Bush rose in support. Elsewhere his campaign worked to bolster his “Southern firewall” which was supposed to hold off both Dole and Robertson but was cracking severely as Dole and Robertson continued to keep the South competitive.

The three weeks before Iowa saw the state crisscrossed by all three of the leading candidates as well as Rumsfeld and Kemp, who were hoping to beat the odds and come in fourth place or even third in order to provide any sort of boost they could to their struggling campaigns. Both, however, were largely failing to gain ground in the Hawkeye State as the race continued to be dominated by Dole, Bush, and Robertson. With Robertson’s victory in Michigan and growing supporting in the state as a result of his strong ground game and appeal to evangelicals it seemed to be an uphill battle for Dole who was stuck in second place. He did received boost a two weeks before the caucuses when he received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, which called Dole the “only candidate in the race who cares about farmers and has the experience to protect the gains made by Reagan while showing a willingness to compromise when necessary for the good of the country.” He also won a decisive victory in his home state of Kansas on February 1, receiving all 34 of its delegates, while Robertson put up an unexpected victory in Hawaii despite hopes by Dole that he would be able to win the state. Bush, meanwhile, was looking toward New Hampshire as his campaign had little hope of doing any better than third in Iowa, which was still a tight race between him and Haig.

The Democrats saw a more eventful closing to Iowa when a report in the Washington Post alleged that Ferraro’s son, John Zaccaro Jr., had been dealing cocaine for his first two years at Middlebury College and that she and her husband had attempted to cover it up. Ferraro denied any sort of cover up, but her son did admit to having been “reckless and irresponsible” for two years before ending his drug dealing. Ferraro criticized the Washington Post for going after her family, saying that her son’s behavior had no bearing on her fitness to be president and that the press was “trying to persecute my family because they can’t find any dirt on me.” She gained some sympathy for her position, although she also faced criticism for downplaying the illicit activities of her son, especially from Rep. Jim Traficant her called her a “hypocrite on law and order” and “not only a mob wife but also an accomplice to drug dealing” during a presidential debate on January 20. Ferraro pushed back, saying that her son “had made a mistake but realized what he was doing was wrong” and that she was “committed more than ever to making our streets safe once again and putting an end to drug trafficking rings” that had led to America’s growing drug problem. The scandal did do some damage to Ferraro’s image and led to an unexpected victory from Gary Hart in the January 20 presidential debate as she faced tough questioning regarding her son’s activities. Ferraro did come back to put in a strong finish in the last debate before Iowa on January 27, making a memorable line where she said that “some leaders are born women” and that she had the leadership necessary to bring Americans “an honest, fair government that will protect the rights of vulnerable groups while expanding opportunities for middle and working class Americans.”

Gephardt’s campaign received a boost when he was endorsed by the Des Moines Register on February 1, declaring him the “candidate of working class Iowans” who will be “a champion for the little guy in the face of a changing economy.” This was countered by Ferraro, however, who received the endorsement of Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin the next day who said she would be the candidate who would “give a fair deal for Iowa’s struggling farmers” and “fight for the rights of disabled Americans everywhere.” Many pre-Iowa polls showed Ferraro with a steady lead but with both Gephardt and Babbitt, who had been consolidating support among moderates as Hart and Biden stayed away from the state, following close behind, with one even showing Gephardt with a very narrow 1 point lead. As February 8 approached for both parties and the media looked on to the results as a harbinger for what was to come, the stakes could not be higher.

 

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Chapter 6: Iowa, New Hampshire, and the Fight for the South

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“Thank you Iowa! Tonight you have made history and opened that door of opportunity just a crack more for women all across this country. You have proven that gender does not matter as much as policy and a message that you can believe in, a message of hope, opportunity, and progress. I know because I’ve traveled across this state listening to people of all stripes, people who feel invisible to politicians in Washington who’ve been slow to respond to the farming crisis, people who have expressed worry about being able to earn a decent wage, and people who are concerned about being able to afford to send their children to college. I know that we can do better.

America has and always will be a land of opportunity and I know that together we can ensure it remains that way for our children and grandchildren.” Geraldine Ferraro, February 8, 1988​

Geraldine Ferraro made history as the first woman to win a presidential primary contest despite facing stiff competition from both Dick Gephardt and Bruce Babbitt. There were some in the media who had been skeptical of polls showing her in the lead in the state, attributing it more to her star power and the reluctance of voters to say they didn’t support the first serious woman candidate for president than to actual support for her campaign. However she proved them wrong with her coalition of women, working-class voters, and liberals pulling her over the top and giving her an 11 point victory in the state over Dick Gephardt, who received 22% of the vote. Bruce Babbitt also put in a strong showing, narrowly coming in third with 19% of the vote after having seen his December surge fade away in the weeks before Iowa. Jim Traficant, whose campaign had been struggling to build additional support ever since his breakout performance in the first presidential debate, did relatively well considering the long-shot nature of his campaign, narrowly missing the threshold to earn delegates at 13% of the vote. The big losers of the night were Hart and Biden who both came in the single digits after having pulled resources out of the state to focus on later contests.

There were headlines splashed on newspapers all across the country on February 9th speculating whether Ferraro could become America’s first woman president or would go down in defeat either during the primaries or in the general election. While her path to the Democratic nomination remained tenuous there was no doubt that she had the momentum going forward as her victory in Iowa made it clear that Ferraro had the resources and electoral support to make it all the way to New Orleans and potentially further yet on her road to the White House. Meanwhile her opponents were scrambling to stop her in New Hampshire in order to blunt her momentum and set up for a competitive race all the way until June.

On the Republican side Pat Robertson emerged victorious with 31% of the vote after Bush, Dole, and Haig split the anti-Robertson vote nearly evenly between each other with Dole coming in second with 19%, Bush in third with 17%, and Haig in fourth with 16%. Robertson announced in his victory speech that “the people of Iowa have voted for true conservative leadership guided by Christian values” and that “Georgie, Bobby, and Al can’t stop us from going all the way to Houston!” Concern spread throughout the Republican establishment and within the White House at the idea that Robertson could emerge as the party’s nominee, a possibility that seemed to be getting more real with every contest. His religious conservative campaign had the potential to repel suburban moderates and liberal Republicans who had supported Reagan’s presidency but held moderate to liberal positions on social issues that put them out of line with the Christian Coalition and social conservativism that was beginning to take over the Republican Party. This had the potential to be devastating for Republicans in swing states such as California, Illinois, or Pennsylvania that they were looking to hold in November. Bush and Dole immediately began to ratchet up their campaign operations in New Hampshire as well as crucial states across the South as they attempted to stave off a potential Robertson surge that could put him well on the way to winning the Republican nomination for president.

This was helped by an endorsement of Bush by New Hampshire Governor John Sununu the day after Iowa, one that the Bush campaign had long coveted but which he had failed to secure because of his campaign’s struggles over the past few months. However, with a surge in support being registered in New Hampshire for Bush as he hammered Dole on his wishy-washy stance on taxes Sununu had come to the conclusion that he might as well throw his support behind Bush and get his New Hampshire machine helping him out in the last week before the primary in order to, hopefully, help him get a much needed victory that would boost his floundering campaign. He was helped by a pre-New Hampshire debate where Bob Dole struggled to respond to Bush’s attacks on his stance on taxes, a critical issue for many New Hampshire voters, which Bush capitalized on by promising not to raise taxes. With polls in New Hampshire narrowing between Bush and Dole it looked like either one of them could end up victorious in the first-in-the-nation primary.

For months Joe Biden had been traveling across the state of New Hampshire, visiting every diner, barbershop, and senior living home that he could find. Retail politics was essential to any victory in the state and Biden knew this very well. After his gaffe on ethanol had all but assured that he would bomb in Iowa his only chance to come out on top in one of the first two states was in New Hampshire. But it was not easy as Ferraro had strong support in the state from women, liberals, and older voters while Biden was attempting to capitalize on the youth vote and his decent support among middle class voters and moderates. However, he faced stiff competition from Babbitt who had been hitting the state as well in the past few weeks, saying he was the candidate who would re-invigorate the Democratic Party and deal with the practical problems that America was facing, which appealed to many of the moderate, middle class voters that Biden was going for. Undeterred, Biden attacked Babbitt for lacking a real vision for America and wanting to tax Americans for their consumption of goods. Babbitt attempted to fight back by saying that Biden had a knack for putting his foot-in-his mouth and that he lacked the verbal discipline to be president. However, this attack proved ineffective as Biden gave a brilliant speech calling on the need for a new generation of leadership and of focusing on middle class values that “Democrats have forgotten about for far too many years.”

Meanwhile Ferraro stayed above the fray in the final week before the New Hampshire primary, focusing on her push for education reform and promising to protect Social Security and Medicare from Republicans who she said were determined to cut them as part of efforts to reduce the deficit. Nevertheless, she faced continued attacks from the Biden and Gephardt campaigns on her experience to serve as president, with Biden making especially sharp attacks on her foreign policy chops, saying that America needed a president who had first-hand knowledge and experience with foreign affairs and that he had gained that during his time in the Senate, especially since ascending to the chairmanship of the Foreign Affairs Committee. Ferraro was also fighting against the notoriously independent New Hampshire electorate which tended to buck the popular consensus and go its own way. Whether she could win or not was clear as polls of New Hampshire showed her running tight with Biden although maintaining a consistent lead despite his attacks on her experience. As February 16 approached the result remained very much in the air even as the conventional wisdom said that it was more likely than not that Ferraro would be able to eke out a victory in the state despite the best efforts of her opponents.

As the results came in on the night of February 16 both the Bush and Dole camps were on the edge of their seats as the results flipped from Bush to Dole back to Bush again over the course of the night. It seemed that the Bush comeback was happening after he had failed to come close to winning a state yet in the primary campaign. Both were relieved that it appeared that Robertson’s success did not extend all the way up to New England where he was stuck with a modest showing in third place, staving off fears that he would run away with the nomination. When the final returns came Dole surged ahead of Bush and was declared the winner shortly after 10:15pm, having secured a narrow four point victory over Bush in the Granite State and taking all 23 of its delegates. In his victory speech Dole declared that the results was an endorsement of “pragmatic leadership that will allow us to bring America together in a new conservative era of history” and that he was prepared to go “to every corner of this country to win the hearts and minds of Republican voters.” Bush licked his wounds as he failed to win his first state but came tantalizingly close, now turning his eyes to Super Tuesday as the real test of whether he could bring his campaign back from the brink or be doomed to watch Dole and Robertson duke it out as his dreams of winning the presidency faded away.

On the Democratic side the race was not so dramatic. After having enjoyed an early lead in the returns Biden fell to second place as Ferraro surged ahead and held a consistent lead throughout the night and ultimately being declared the victory. Biden conceded defeat but vowed to fight on, saying that “this campaign does not end until the American people say it does” and that he will “fight tooth and nail to prove to Democratic voters that it is time for us to hand the torch to the younger generations of Americans.” The next day the New York Times’ headline simply read “Can Ferraro Be Stopped?” and asked the question of whether any of the other candidates in the race were strong enough to stop her from winning the party’s nomination after they had failed to stop her from winning either Iowa and New Hampshire and declaring that “the Democrats are well on their way to nominating their first woman nominee in history.” With the focus turning to Super Tuesday that question continued to hang in the air as the Democratic candidates joined the Republicans in barnstorming across the South in the search for voters and validation that they were on the right path to victory.

The next few weeks before Super Tuesday went by in a whirl for both parties as candidates lined up support and endorsements in Super Tuesday states while continuing to secure victories in low-key contests. Ferraro received the endorsements of Virginia Governor Gerard Batiles and former Kentucky Governor Martha Layne Collins, Biden was endorsed by the NAACP and Alabama Senator Howard Heflin, and Babbitt received a surprising endorsement from the new Mississippi Governor Ray Mabus who said that he believed Babbitt “represented what these times demand from our president, someone who can break through the wheeling and dealing of Congress to present real solutions to America’s problems.” On February 23 Gephardt’s campaign received a boost when he swept to victory in South Dakota by a nearly 30 point margin while Ferraro faced a strong challenge from Babbitt in Minnesota and only won by three points despite her support from the state’s party establishment. Her campaign would receive good news five days later, however, when she handily defeated Babbitt in the Maine caucuses and also secured a key endorsement from Illinois Senator and former presidential candidate Paul Simon which put her in a strong position to win the state should she do well enough on Super Tuesday. Polls continued to show the race being tight in the South, with Ferraro holding strong leads in both Kentucky and Virginia while Texas appeared to be trending her way on account of strong support within the Latino community for her campaign and a recent endorsement from Texas State Treasurer Ann Richards. The rest of the states remained tight with only Alabama seeming to be leaning toward one candidate, that being Biden. As Gary Hart won his first victory in the Wyoming Caucuses three days before Super Tuesday and Ferraro dominated in many of the states outside of the South it seemed that these key southern primaries would be crucial to determining who would be taking on Ferraro for the remainder of the primary season.

The GOP race was no less settled as Pat Robertson continued to hold a delegate lead following New Hampshire due to his victories in Michigan, Hawaii, and Iowa. The fear of a Robertson victory on Super Tuesday continued to be palpable among Republican officials although they were encouraged when Bush won his first contest in Nevada, receiving a 22 point victory in a state that he had been organizing in for some time and enjoyed the support from Fmr. Senator and close friend of President Reagan Paul Laxalt who still remained popular within the state. Bush also scored big victories in Minnesota and South Dakota where he defeated Dole by margins of 20+ points as his flailing campaign began to receive new life with his organization coming through in these states where he enjoyed strong support from the state party. It also received a boost when Al Haig withdrew from the race on February 24 after failing to gain traction in the first few sets of states at the same time as Bush was declared the winner of the Wyoming caucuses. However, the good news didn’t last as Dole scored two victories in the caucuses in Alaska and Maine with Bush coming in second place in each. As with the Democrats key endorsers also came out in the race, with Bush receiving the endorsements of Texas Senator Phil Gramm, North Carolina Governor James G. Martin, and Missouri Gov. John Ashcroft as well as earning the endorsement of the of U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Bob Dole received support from Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran, Missouri Sen. John Danforth, and Virginia Sen. John Warner in addition to receiving a surprise endorsement from South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond who said he “stood 100% behind Minority Leader Dole who will serve America as well as he has served the Republican caucus.” Finally, Pat Robertson earned the endorsements of North Carolina Sen. Jesse Helms and the National Right to Life Committee.

All campaigns fought hard in South Carolina, which held its primary three days before Super Tuesday and was the first test of each campaign’s southern strategy as it served to potentially be a portend for the results on Super Tuesday. Bob Dole had hoped to ride the support of Strom Thurmond to a strong showing in the state if not outright victory, but he faced a bitter defeat in the state as he came in fourth place behind Donald Rumsfeld and failed to break out of the single digits. The big winner ended up being Pat Robertson, whose appeal to the state’s conservative electorate and strong grassroots support propelled him to a 9 point victory over Bush. This unnerved the Bush and Dole campaigns who were becoming increasingly worried that Robertson could secure narrow victories by capitalizing on his conservative base of support and the split between Dole and Bush to come up the middle between them. As the closely divided contest for the South came to its final conclusion, the Republican establishment held its breath and waited to see if their party’s primary voters would end up blowing its chances of victory in November or give them renewed hope of securing a third victory in a row.

 

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State of the Primaries: March 7, 1988

Democrats

Republicans

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Chapter 7: March Madness

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“NBC News can now project that Geraldine Ferraro will be the victor in delegate-rich Florida by a little over four points after a close-fought race with Joe Biden in the state. This comes on the heels of her large, double-digit victory in Texas over both Sen. Biden and Gary Hart, a result that surprised many political observers who had predicted a much closer race in the Lone Star state. Meanwhile Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina still remain too close to the call and we’re waiting on results from the caucuses in the West. However, I think it is clear that Ferraro has held off her opponents tonight, dashing any hopes they had of halting her path to the nomination.

On the Republican side we can project that Pat Robertson will win the state of Mississippi and a plurality of its delegates. Despite this win, however, it is looking like a good night for Vice President Bush whose newly rejuvenated campaign has swept to victory in six states so far including Texas and Florida, the biggest prizes of the night. While it looked like Bush’s campaign was failing to catch fire it’s clear from tonight that he’s making a comeback that could vault him to a nomination that looked beyond his grasp just two short weeks ago. With several primaries still too close to call in Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky the night is far from over at this point.” - Tom Brokaw, March 8, 1988​

Super Tuesday would prove to be a tough night for the news media, with numerous close contests resulting in several incorrect projections that would later be redacted, proving nerve-wracking for many of the campaigns. This was no more true than for Kentucky on the Republican side, where the race was projected for Dole just after 6:45pm only to be redacted and projected later on for the correct winner, Pat Robertson, who only ended up winning the state by less than 700 votes. The same would be repeated on the Democratic side where ABC News declared Ferraro the victor in Arkansas shortly after 8:00pm only to be forced to change this projection when Biden vaulted into the lead and held on to a bare two point margin by the end of the night. Extremely close results such as these represented the bitterly fought nature of the battle for the South that ended with nail biters for both Republican and Democratic campaigns as votes were tabulated and reported by the networks over the course of the night. However, focusing on these sorts of races would mask the greater significance of Super Tuesday for both parties’ presidential primaries.

Ferraro proved to be the big winner on the Democratic side, winning eleven states and just over 600 delegates as she swept to victory in New England, the Upper South, and the West, only losing to Biden in Idaho by less than .10% of the vote. Adding on her 13 point victory in Texas and her 4 point victory in Florida and the night confirmed her status as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Her victories were bolstered by strong support among her usual coalition of suburban voters, women, and liberals, as well as blue collar voters in rural parts of Appalachia who helped her secure victories in Kentucky and Virginia and Latinos who boosted her in both Texas and Nevada. Her main rival of the night proved to be Joe Biden, who won his first primaries after having put a heavy focus on the South in the lead up to Super Tuesday. He swept six states, pulling off narrow victories in Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina in addition to Idaho and a more decisive 11 point victory in Alabama. All told, he won 350 delegates on Super Tuesday, pushing him into second place in the delegate count and leaving him as Ferraro’s main rival for the nomination. For the Hart, Gephardt, and Babbitt camps this was a disappointing night as each only one a single state, Hart narrowly winning Oklahoma while Gephardt won his home state of Missouri in a 26 point landslide and Babbitt surprisingly won the state of Mississippi by nearly five points. This was especially painful for Gary Hart who came within 1,000 votes of victory in Georgia after having played hard for the state.

In the GOP race the big news of the night would be what the media hailed as the “Bush Resurgence” after his campaign struggled in the first two months of the Republican primary and the fall of Robertson, whose strong third place finish kept him in the race but dashed any notions that his campaign for the nomination would be unstoppable. While Bush's “Southern firewall” did not hold completely his strong organization in the region brought him to victory in 8 states, including a narrow win in Arkansas and more decisive victories in North Carolina, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Florida as well as a landslide victory in his adopted home state of Texas. In addition he pulled off a victory in Rhode Island, pulling moderate votes away from Dole after securing the support of Sen. John Chafee five days before the primary, and in Washington where he had established a strong organization and had earned the endorsement of Sen. Daniel Evans. By the end of the night he had amassed 342 delegates, vaulting him ahead of Robertson and into first place in the delegate count. However, Bob Dole closely trailed him after winning 270 delegates which brought his total to 360, only 42 delegates behind Bush. Having capitalized on support among moderate and liberal Republicans as well as a strong ground organization and appeals to more conservative voters, he came victorious in five states including Massachusetts, Maryland, Alabama, and Tennessee as well as a 1 point victory in Georgia where he essentially tied with Robertson and Bush. The big loser of the night would prove to be Pat Robertson who despite winning four states including his home state of Virginia only netted about 160 delegates and fell to third behind Bush and Dole.

Coming out of Super Tuesday it was clear that the broad contours of both races had failed to be shaken despite the successes experienced by several campaigns. While Ferraro was running away with the Democratic nomination the Republicans continued to be bitterly divided between Bush, Dole, and Robertson with no clear frontrunner emerging between the three of them. Despite Bush’s successes on Super Tuesday and his momentum going forward the race ahead remained perilous for his campaign as polls showed Dole ahead in Illinois while he also enjoyed strong leads in the remaining states in the Northeast where much of the fight for the next month and a half would take place. Many within the GOP were beginning to worry that none of the candidates would be able to win enough delegates to clinch the nomination outright and the party would be facing a contested convention in August, something party leadership desperately hoped to avoid. However, with no candidate being firmly in the lead and continued worries about Bush’s viability in the fall the party was paralyzed to intervene in the primary in order to prop up one candidate even as President Reagan privately began to push for the rest of the party to unite behind Bush while remaining publicly neutral in order to avoid wading into the vitriolic GOP primary and appearing to play favorites, potentially tarnishing his reputation among some of the GOP rank-and-file who had supported him since his run against Gerald Ford in 1976.

The next big primary for both parties was in Illinois, where Gary Hart and Dick Gephardt were making their last desperate stands on the Democratic side as their campaigns hemorrhaged support and funds following their failures to score big wins on Super Tuesday and Ferraro and Biden’s momentum coming out of the night. Hart’s campaign would be emboldened by strong showings in caucuses in both Alaska and South Carolina in the days leading up to the Illinois primary, where he scored second and tied Babbitt for third place respectively. While both proved to be Ferraro victories (although only by two points in South Carolina) his campaign was convinced that he could end up taking in enough support in Illinois in order to pass the 15% threshold for earning delegates. Gephardt’s campaign, meanwhile, grew increasingly disheartened as he failed to earn delegates and watched as Ferraro secured the support of the National Education Association while Biden scooped up the endorsement of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, cutting further into his union support. Both barnstormed across the state and blanketed the airwaves with ads in the hope of letting their struggling campaigns live another day. When the results streamed in from Illinois on the night of March 15 and it was clear that Ferraro would win the state by double digits while Hart and Gephardt would fail to win any delegates, both suspended their campaigns within a few hours of each other as the Democratic field narrowed to just three candidates. Only Ferraro and Biden would continue to be considered by the media as serious contenders for the nomination while Babbitt’s campaign became a vehicle for his ideas rather than a winning bid for the party’s nomination.

On the Republican side the race in Illinois was more muted as Bush ceded the state to both Robertson and Dole after polls continued to show him trailing in third place. He instead focused on the primaries in his ancestral home of Connecticut and Wisconsin, a crucial Midwestern swing state that his campaign was angling to win to deprive Robertson of another potential victory by running up the score in the strongly conservative Milwaukee suburbs while Dole and Bush divided the vote in the rest of the state. Meanwhile Dole and Robertson went at it in Illinois, with Dole painting Robertson as too extreme and divisive to win the election in the fall while Robertson called Dole a “Washington elitist” who would fail to implement a true conservative agenda and continue the spirit of Reagan’s presidency for fear of backlash from “big government atheists” who still ran the show. This line brought heavy criticism from Democrats and Republicans alike, who attested to their colleagues’ belief in god. While Robertson would end up apologizing for the line, it cost him in Illinois as Dole won a larger-than-expected ten point victory and took all 92 of the state’s delegates - vaulting him into the delegate lead overall - as Bush put in a strong third place showing, coming only four points behind Robertson, and Donald Rumsfeld did much better than pundits had speculated, pulling in a solid 18% of the vote in his home state despite the dwindling resources of his campaign. Robertson and his surrogates spun it as having been an expected loss for the campaign considering the moderate character of Illinois Republicans but it was clear that he had botched his chances of pulling off an upset in the state and damaged himself in future contests.

The two weeks that followed provided good news for Vice President Bush, as he received the endorsement of Wisconsin Senator Bob Kasten, an outspoken conservative who had been swept to office in the Reagan Revolution in 1980 and held on in 1986 unlike many of his colleagues elected in that year, and won the Connecticut primary by 7 points over Bob Dole in a region Dole was otherwise running strong in. Such good news would not last forever, however, as Dole’s strong ground game brought him to victory in the Colorado caucuses on April 4 and he earned the support of New York Senator Al D’Amato, a powerful figure within the state party, who stated that Dole would “bring the willingness to work across the aisle when necessary that will prove crucial in dealing with the problems of rising crime and an exploding deficit.” With the New York primary nearly two weeks away and 136 delegates at stake this endorsement was a blow to Bush, whose chances of winning the state began to dwindle. However, Wisconsin was only a day away and looked much more promising for Bush, who had opened a lead over Robertson in the state as it seemed to slip right through Robertson’s fingers. Wisconsin’s more conservative electorate proved to be a tantalizing target for the Robertson campaign and while he had been playing hard for the state with his appeal to traditional conservative values and continued attacks on Bush over his conservative credentials this proved to be ineffective as Bush began to project a strength and confidence that had previously eluded him before his victories on Super Tuesday.

Coming off her victory in Illinois, Ferraro was riding high as it became clear that the nomination was hers to lose at that point and her campaign played up her ability to appeal to both the Democratic base and moderate voters in the general election. However, her nomination was far from inevitable. This was no less clear when she lost the Kansas caucuses to Biden by six points despite expectations of victory considering her performance in other caucus states and the momentum her campaign had coming off of big victories on Super Tuesday and in the Illinois primary. It became evident to many in the Ferraro campaign that her support in the Plains and Mountain states was not as strong as elsewhere as Biden made a strong play for farmers, promising to revitalize rural America in the wake of the farming crisis and pay attention to the needs of farmers who had been ignored by the Reagan administration and politicians in Washington. Despite his ability to connect with middle-class voters and his charismatic speaking style, Joe Biden would also prove to be a gift for the Ferraro campaign because of his frequent gaffes on the campaign trail. At a Democratic debate on March 22 in response to a question about how he would stand up for women as president he remarked that “all of these women are getting down and dirty for Gerry, I know they are, but they should at least give me a look because I may not be a woman but I’d do more for women that any other president has.” His remarks drew a rebuttal from Ferraro who said called his remarks insensitive and “degrading to women all across the country” saying that “women aren’t doing everything they can to support me just because I’m a woman, they’re doing so because they know I’ll be fighting for the issues they care about the most that have nothing to do with gender.” Biden apologized for these comments after facing fire from women’s organizations but they did him no favors, especially as Ferraro cruised to a 20 point victory in the Michigan caucuses just four days later and defeated him by 15 points in the Connecticut primary on March 29.

Biden was far from down and out, however, as he won the North Dakota caucuses in a landslide and was victorious in Colorado a week later, beating Ferraro by 15 points in a state that Hart had been previously leading in up to his withdrawal from the race. Nevertheless, signs were not looking good for him after the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel endorsed Ferraro in the Wisconsin primary, citing her “deep commitment to addressing the issue of industrial decline in the Midwest” and her status “as a strong positive role model for every little girl in America.” With Ferraro pulling ahead in Wisconsin and having a guaranteed victory in New York two weeks later, Biden looked toward Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana for wins as he faced an uphill battle to cut into her delegate lead and, hopefully, overtake her as delegate leader as unlikely as that would be.

 

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State of the Primaries: April 4, 1988

Democrats

Republicans

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Chapter 8: A Tale of Two Primaries

“I’d like to thank the people of Wisconsin tonight for voting to continue the mission that President Reagan and I started seven years ago, a mission that has brought America back to greatness under sound conservative leadership. Not so long ago the media was saying my campaign for president was dead but now look at where we are now. The “Bush Resurgence” is real, folks, and it’s going to take us all the way to Houston and from there to the White House because we’ve still got plenty of work left to do.” – George Bush, April 5, 1988​

The Wisconsin primary turned into yet another victory for Vice President Bush as he won by 7 points over Bob Dole and Pat Robertson, who tied for second with 24 points each, and took all of its 47 delegates. There had been deep worry within his campaign that Robertson would be able to pull off an upset in the state, not least because of conservative Waukesha County and other equally conservative suburban counties surrounding Milwaukee that would be highly receptive to his insurgent campaign. However, Bush had managed to strike a middle ground between Dole and Robertson, appealing to conservatives with his commitment to fighting for school prayer and against abortion while reaching out to moderates by promising to fight for compassionate conservatism and pragmatic but principled leadership. Meanwhile Robertson’s bombastic campaign had begun to turn off some potential conservative support for him, especially after a poll dropped showing him losing to both Gerry Ferraro and Joe Biden in the general election by double digits several days before the Wisconsin primary, which opened up attacks by both Dole and Bush on his electability that resonated with many conservatives committed holding on to the White House for another four years. Robertson’s failure to pull off a win in Wisconsin blew the wind out of the sails of his campaign and while he would refuse to drop out of the race everybody knew the real contest was now between Bush and Dole. The night also saw the quiet exit of Jack Kemp, who had once been seen as the heir to Reagan but failed to gain much support in the face of the battle between Bush, Dole, and Robertson.

Ferraro swept to victory in Wisconsin by a 15 point margin over Senator Joe Biden, another confirmation of her strength across the industrial Midwest and the momentum of her campaign. The Biden camp was downtrodden by the loss, even if it was to be expected, and began to worry about his ability to win the nomination in the face of the seemingly insurmountable campaign that Ferraro had assembled. Many in his campaign began to blame Gov. Babbitt for his loss in Wisconsin and his tough road ahead, pointing out the 17% of the vote he pulled in the state and that the fact that it was greater than the margin between Biden and Ferraro, indicating that it very well could have cost him the state. They felt that Babbitt and Biden were appealing to a lot of the same moderate, middle class voters who were looking for a new direction for the Democratic Party and that by dividing this vote they were handing the nomination to Ferraro.

Calls began to go out for Babbitt to withdraw from the race from not just the Biden campaign but from the Democratic Leadership Council as well which had previously been backing his campaign, saying that it was time for him to step aside so the Democrats could nominate the sort of young, moderate candidate they needed to take back the White House. Babbitt soundly refused, especially with the Arizona Caucuses less than two weeks away, saying that his campaign still had a shot despite the steep odds. Privately his campaign was running out of money and he hoped that winning Arizona would help him stay in as long as possible to continue to push his call for a national sales tax and a universal needs test for Medicare and Social Security. While he had previously had a surge in support after a breakout debate performance in December he had failed to catch on since then outside of his upset victory in Mississippi and was likely to leave the race soon. Until that time, however, he would continue to be a nuisance for the Biden campaign.

All eyes focused in on the state of New York, the second largest haul of delegates left in both primaries apart from California on June 5, which held its primary on April 19. For Bush it was an important step on the way to locking up the nomination and he knew that if he won the state he’d be in a strong position to win a majority of delegates and clinch the nomination as he was polling ahead of Dole by decent margins in Ohio and Oregon while he was running tight with Dole in California and New Jersey. However, Dole maintained a lead in the state and had a great deal of support among suburban moderates, women, and liberal Republicans who were still a sizeable force in New York despite their overall decline nationally. Bush attempted to blame Bob Dole for not doing more to reduce the Federal deficit, saying that it had “been his responsibility as Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee to oversee the budget” and that he had instead “let Democrats pile all of these unnecessary expenditures into the budget on the backs of taxpayers.” Dole shot back, saying that he had shown “strong leadership as the Chair of the Finance Committee” and that Bush “was lying about his handling of the budget process.” While these attacks do some damage to Dole, who fell from the mid-teens in the polls to the high single digits, it was not enough to save Bush in New York as he lost to Dole by 9 points, with Dole taking all 136 delegates, and expanding his lead over Bush in the delegate count. Dole also won the Vermont caucuses the same day, defeating Bush by 14 points and growing his lead by an additional 2 delegates. The next morning Donald Rumsfeld suspended his campaign, having failed to win any states and only winning a few dozen delegates.

On the Democratic side there were several other contests in the lead-up to New York, both caucuses in the home states of Bruce Babbitt and Joe Biden that they were widely expected to win. While Biden cruised to victory in Delaware over Ferraro by 17 points, Babbitt barely won Arizona, only defeating Biden by a little over 2 points and tying him in the delegate count. This was yet another sign of the weakness of Babbitt’s campaign and while it gave him a momentary boost it was clear that his campaign was losing steam and that his days in the primary were numbered. Meanwhile Biden put up a spirited campaign for New York despite knowing the uphill battle he was fighting, with New York’s governor and Democratic Senator having lined up behind Ferraro as well as New York City’s Mayor Ed Koch and much of the Democratic leaders within the state legislature. Despite only being a Congresswoman from Queens, Ferraro won New York in a landslide, taking 61% of the vote to Biden’s 32% and expanding her lead over Biden by 80 delegates. She also won the Vermont caucuses the same day by a larger 34 point margin. Biden vowed to continue fighting on but the odds were steep for him. His only hope for stopping Ferraro would be to win the race for superdelegates since neither of them were likely to win enough pledged delegates to gain an overall majority. A victory in Pennsylvania and in Indiana or Ohio would be crucial for that effort but polls had Biden trailing in the teens in all but Indiana, where Ferraro was leading in the high single digits, and it seemed the only way he would have a chance is if luck was on his side. Unfortunately for Biden, the luck just wasn’t there for him in Pennsylvania.

In the lead-up to the Pennsylvania primary he attempted to hammer Ferraro on the issue of her husband’s finances saying in a pre-primary debate that there were “many shady things going on there that we just don’t know about” but Ferraro pushed back saying that she and her husband had been “transparent and honest with the American people about [their] financial records” and that Biden was “pulling at straws and distracting from the issues that matter to people most, like education, crime, or the growing deficit.” Biden’s attack failed to make a dent and even as he traveled across Pennsylvania, the state where he was born and spent the first nine years of his life, he was never able to attract the same crowds as Ferraro was. He did have some good news the day before the primary, though, as he won the Utah caucuses by 11 points and Bruce Babbitt finally ended his campaign for president. This did little to help out Biden, though, as Ferraro emerged victorious in Pennsylvania by 11 points. A wave of doubt spread through his campaign as it became more and more difficult to see a path to the nomination for him.

On the Republican side, Pennsylvania seemed to be a lost cause for the Bush campaign as Dole ran strong in the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh while Robertson maintained a loyal following among many rural and working class voters seeking a more conservative alternative. His campaign all but gave up on the state and instead focused on Indiana and Ohio the next week, with Dole racking up a 13 point victory and taking all 96 of its delegates, further extending his lead despite Bush's victories in the Delaware and Utah caucuses the day before which netted him a total 22 additional delegates over Dole but not enough to make up for Pennsylvania. At the same time Robertson’s campaign found renewed hope after he managed to secure the endorsement of Indiana Senator Dan Quayle, one that caught the media and his opponents off guard. Quayle praised Robertson for his strong Christian values and said that he would “restore confidence in the moral values that seem to be decaying so much in our society” and be a “strong advocate for American families.” Robertson subsequently received a boost as Bush’s support began to falter, threatening to dislodge Dole in first place as he ran a series of negative ads painting Dole as soft on conservative issues such as taxes, crime, and abortion. Meanwhile he came out swinging against Bush in Ohio, calling him a “secret adherent to ‘voodoo liberal economics’” and touting his pledge not to raise taxes and to continue to remove “harmful regulations that tied the hands of business” and tamped down economic growth. While Bush and Dole swung back, both of these attacks proved effective to some degree as Robertson began to poll within the margin of error in Indiana and only a few points behind Bush in Ohio.

Speculation spread through the media of a Robertson upset in Indiana that would revive his campaign and hopes of winning the nomination. For Republican strategists and staff for both Bush and Dole a renewed sense of uneasiness emerged as the previously-thought-to-be-vanquished Robertson appeared to be resurrecting his campaign and using his strong grassroots support to mount a comeback. As results rolled in on the night of May 3 it appears this fretting might have been justified as Robertson came out with an early lead in Indiana, bolstered by strong support in rural areas and the more conservative suburbs of Indianapolis. However, as more results came in this lead narrowed until Dole emerged ahead and ended up winning by 4 points over Robertson. Meanwhile in Ohio Bush more handily fended off Robertson despite holding a narrow margin at the beginning of the night, eventually pulling off a decisive 6 point victory while also claiming victory in the D.C. primary over Dole, netting a total of 102 delegates to Dole’s 51, narrowing Dole’s lead in the delegate count. While both campaigns were relieved that Robertson had failed to emerge victorious once again Dole and Bush learned that Robertson was not to be dismissed and that he still had the support and resources to compete until June 14, even if the remaining contests were not the most favorable to him.

Biden’s campaign went into high gear in Indiana and Ohio, especially in Indiana where he saw a better chance of victory due to the state’s large number of moderate and conservative Democrats and the weaker strength of organized labor that had largely coalesced behind Ferraro’s campaign in the Midwest. His campaign was bolstered when he received the endorsement of Indiana Secretary of State Evan Bayh, son of former Senator Birch Bayh, who praised him for his “moderate, pragmatic leadership and youthful vigor” stating that it was time for a “new generation of leadership to take control of the Democratic Party.” Barnstorming across the state, Biden remained hopeful that he could pull off an upset and provide his campaign with much needed momentum, particularly after he also managed to clinch the endorsement of the editorial board of the Indianapolis Star which praised Biden for his ability to connect with middle class voters and his 16 years of experience in the Senate. Ferraro, on the other hand, made a few visits to the state but was confident of victory and instead focused on California and New Jersey, the largest states left in the contest which held their primaries in a little more than a month, as well as a few of the other later contests where she hoped to bolster her support. Her campaign was thus blindsided when Biden emerged victorious in Indiana by a little more than 1% of the vote, failing to cut much into her delegate lead but giving him a crucial victory that would help him stay in the race for another month when coupled with his 19 point victory in the D.C. primary. However, Ferraro also crushed him the very same day in Ohio where she won by 13 points and netted 35 delegates over Biden, expanding her lead over him in the delegate count once again.

While Indiana proved to be a minor setback for the Ferraro campaign it was far from a fatal blow and she brushed it off as the primary campaign moved into its final month. Ferraro remained the clear favorite to win the nomination even as Biden continued to claim that he would be able to convince the superdelegates to back him over Ferraro as the more viable candidate against whoever emerged from the GOP primary in the November election. Such a long-shot seemed unlikely, earning skepticism in the media who believed that Ferraro’s lead was just too insurmountable to overcome. Indeed, Ferraro’s campaign was already plotting a strategy for the general election while remaining attentive to the fact that Ferraro had yet to wrap up the nomination. But barring the catastrophic collapse of her campaign it appeared Ferraro was set to make history in New Orleans once all the votes were cast.

 

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State of the Primaries: May 4, 1988

Democrats

Republicans

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Chapter 9: The Final Stretch​

“Look, folks, the odds are not in our favor but that’s not going to stop us now. Democrats need a new direction, a new vision that focuses on middle class values. I’m talking about opportunity, crime, education, and healthcare. Now I know that Geraldine Ferraro has been talking about these things but I’m going to be honest, she’s just too liberal for America. It’s the truth, it really is. No offense to all Gerry has fought for but the country has changed since she was in the House and that calls for more moderate leadership that can reach across the aisle and get things done. I just don’t know if she can do that.” – Joe Biden, May 7, 1988​

Joe Biden’s campaign was in dire straits following his upset in Indiana. Despite receiving a much needed boost he was being outflanked by Ferraro in all of the remaining states. His only hope seemed to be pulling off victories in the largest states yet to hold a primary: Oregon, California, New Jersey, and New Mexico. This path was extremely uphill, however, and would be unlikely to put him into the delegate lead. His staff hoped that by denying Ferraro a majority of the pledged delegates they would be able to sway superdelegates to their side. However, his campaign was running out of cash and momentum. Biden began to go on the attack against Ferraro, calling her too liberal to win the election and calling for the need for a new direction for the Democratic Party. Ferraro pushed back, saying she was a mainstream Democrat and that she had worked across the aisle plenty of times when she was in the House.

While Biden did convince some Babbitt supporters to come his way, it failed to convince the more liberal Democratic primary electorate which delivered large victories for Ferraro in both Nebraska and West Virginia. She won both by 30+ points, capturing a surprising 72% of the vote in West Virginia after promising to promote clean coal as president as part of her energy policy, which many considered to be pandering to the West Virginia electorate but proved effective in winning over their support. Biden largely failed to contest both states as he concentrated resources in the more expensive contests in California and New Jersey. He also barnstormed across Oregon in the two weeks before its primary, calling for new environmental legislation to clean up America’s shorelines in a bid to appeal to Oregon’s environmentally conscious voters. However, his campaign was facing daunting odds as Ferraro picked up the pace in Oregon following her surprise defeat in Indiana. Her campaign ran several ads emphasizing her support for the environment and her push for comprehensive education reform, while largely ignoring Biden. Even though Biden theoretically should have been able to narrow the gap in Oregon, a Democratic electorate weary from a long and drawn out primary fight, Ferraro’s enthusiastic base of support, and the perception that she was the favorite for the nomination all held Biden back and allowed Ferraro to win Oregon by 21 points. This was a blow to Biden, who watched as his chances of winning the nomination seemed to evaporate. With one more day of primaries left on June 7 Biden continued on in the race but it seemed that any chance of an upset in the remainder of the primary season was gone.

Following the contests on May 8th it became clear that the GOP was headed to a brokered convention. Only 491 delegates were left in the remaining contests and either Bush or Dole would need a near clean sweep of all of them to win the nomination, impossible for Bush considering the fact that 49 of the remaining delegates were decided in contests that didn’t use winner-take-all systems. He would thus need additional delegates from the minor candidates in order to capture the nomination, not an impossible task but a harder one considering his frosty relationships with Donald Rumsfeld and Al Haig. Dole, on the other hand, could capture the nomination outright if he swept all of the remaining winner-take-all states including the big prizes of California and New Jersey. However, polling of these states showed Bush in the lead in both as well as in all of the other winner-take-all states save Nebraska, where Dole held a decisive lead owing to his appeal to rural Republicans in the Plains and being a Senator from nearby Kansas. As such, Dole did not have a plausible path to a majority of the delegates even if he managed to narrow the margins and win a few of the states Bush was leading in. Thus, it became a race to see who could win the most delegates and votes in the remaining primaries, giving them a claim to the nomination by virtue of having the most delegates and/or receiving the votes of a plurality of Republican primary voters. Meanwhile Robertson continued to loom in the background, mathematically eliminated from the nomination but continuing to hold on to a strong and enthusiastic base of support that could persist as a nuisance to both Bush and Dole.

As the Republican race moved on to the remaining states predictable results abounded. Dole won Nebraska by 25 points on May 10, taking all 25 of its delegates. Meanwhile on the same day Bush won West Virginia by 16 points over Robertson, who put in a strong second place showing all things considered mainly due to his strong campaign organization in the state. Then all eyes turned to Arizona and Oregon, the two states before June 7 with the most delegates at stake. There was virtually no polling available for the Arizona caucuses but Bush, Dole, and Robertson all considered it a tight race between the three. Bush, hoping to hold off Dole in yet another state, reached out to Barry Goldwater in search of an endorsement that could give them a boost in the state and potentially sway additional conservative Republicans to his side. In a surprise move, however, the elderly Goldwater who had only been out of the Senate for a year endorsed Dole on May 11 only three days before the Arizona caucuses, calling him a “staunch defender of personal liberty and limited government” and praising him for his leadership as Senate Majority Leader from 1985 to 1987. While Goldwater was not as familiar to the influx of new Republican voters in Arizona he still held sway with many older conservatives in the state and was credited with helping Dole capture 39% of the vote and 13 of the state’s 33 delegates while also boosting his support among conservative and libertarian-leaning Republicans in the remaining states. Despite this, however, Bush swept to a 15 point victory in Oregon just three days later and captured all 36 of its delegates, putting Dole in a difficult position going forward.

The three weeks remaining until the June 7 primaries proved to be hectic for both parties. Ferraro was hit with fresh allegations connected to her husband’s real estate business, this time regarding coke dealers who had rented a unit in one of the buildings her husband had partial ownership of. A report in the New York Post published on May 20 claimed he had been aware of their activities but had done nothing to evict them, while a story in the New York Times did not go as far but asked whether Ferraro could be trusted to run an ethical administration with the cloud hanging over her husband’s business activities. Even as Ferraro dismissed the allegations, calling them “a ridiculous attempt to drag her husband through the mud” and telling reporters at a campaign event in Passaic, New Jersey that “if [she] where a man [her] spouse would not be going through the same media scrutiny” she took a hit in the polls, especially in California and New Jersey where the cocaine epidemic and crime remained on the minds of Democratic primary voters. This gave a fleeting glimpse of hope for Biden who said that, regardless of whether the allegations were true or not, “Democrats deserve a nominee who doesn’t have such a cloud hanging over their campaign and whom voters know they can trust.” While Ferraro remained in a strong position going in to the primaries on June 7 California and New Jersey remained shaky as Biden gained momentum in both states. She also made the unusual move of intervening in a Senate primary, announcing her support for former San Francisco Mayor Dianne Feinstein over her more liberal opponent, Lt. Governor Leo McCarthy, both of whom were hoping to challenge Senator Pete Wilson in the fall, a moderate California Republican with an uninspiring record whom many Democrats perceived to be vulnerable as the state’s demographic changes continued to move it leftward.

As Ferraro came under renewed scrutiny, on the Republican side Bush’s star appeared to be rising further. He received the endorsement of popular New Jersey Governor Thomas Kean, who campaigned with him across the state in the weeks leading up to the New Jersey primary. He also notched a victory in the Idaho primary on May 22, defeating Dole by 9 points and taking all 22 of the state’s delegates, putting him yet another step closer to the delegate lead even as Dole clung to first place. Yet all was not rosy for Bush as polls began to tighten in California, a state that would likely end up determining who had the most delegates after the last primary was held on June 14. Part of this was an aggressive campaign by Dole in southern California, where he targeted the large number of country club Republicans in Orange County and San Diego while reaching out to moderate voters in the northern half of the state. The main thrust of his message was on crime, promising to expand the number of police officers on the streets and more aggressively target drug trafficking rings to stem the wave of drugs arriving over the border. Seeing his poll numbers fall Bush began to push back, traveling across the state playing up his connections to President Reagan who remained widely popular with California Republicans and especially targeting Hispanic voters with ads in Spanish. As June 7 approached Bush and Dole were in a dead heat in the state and it was unclear who would emerge as the victor.

As results rolled in on June 7 the notion of a Biden upset in New Jersey faded as he missed targets in county after county across the state. While he had managed to narrow Ferraro’s margin he had failed to stop her from winning the state by 13 points, a far cry from 20 point leads she had held prior to the allegations against her husband but nothing near what Biden’s campaign had hoped for. In California, however, hope had remained for Joe Biden as initial returns came in showing Ferraro leading by only three points, with many of these returns concentrated in Southern California where she was hoping to appeal to Latino voters but where crime remained a big issue. However, as the night wore on and votes came in from the Bay Area and Central Valley Ferraro’s margin steadily grew and by the time all the votes had been counted she was ahead by 9 points, which held after absentee ballots were counted in the following days. She also crushed Biden in Montana by 32 points while Biden picked up his only victory of the night in New Mexico, where he defeated Ferraro by a narrow 4 point margin. Despite falling short of the required 2,081 delegates needed to win the nomination there was no doubt that the party establishment would fall in line behind her campaign and she would exceed that number through superdelegates. Thus, it became indisputable that history would be made in New Orleans on July 21 when Ferraro became the first woman to be nominated for president by a major party, four years after becoming the first woman to be a major party nominee for vice president.

The situation on the Republican side was more tense as the party remained without a clear favorite for its nomination. As returns came in for the June 7 primaries Bush clinched an early victory in New Jersey where he won a 15 point victory over both Robertson and Dole who tied with 28% each and took all 68 of the state’s delegates, bolstered by his support from the popular Governor Kean. His also emerged with a landslide 30-point victory in New Mexico, adding another 25 delegates to his total number even as he was 55 delegates shy of Dole. All attention then turned to California and Montana, both winner-take-all states where Bush was in tight races with Dole and Robertson respectively. The latter was a surprising result, as the media had expected Bush to pull off an easy victory in the state due to his support from Montana party leaders. However, it would appear that Robertson surprised yet against as he campaign grasped for one final victory. In California Dole held a steady lead as returns came in from the southern part of the state where his campaign had been focusing heavily in the final days of the primary. However, this lead narrowed as the rest of the state came in before completely disappearing as Bush took a narrow lead. By the end of the night Bush emerged with a narrow 3-point victory over Dole, winning all 175 of its delegates and putting him in the delegate lead for the first time since immediately before the Illinois primary. He also pulled off a closer 2-point win in Montana over Robertson, who failed to score a final victory. Momentum behind him, Bush stormed to a 30 point victory in the North Dakota primary a week later as the divided Republican Party careened toward a contest convention in August with no candidate set to surpass 1,139 delegates, a majority of all delegates, on the first ballot. With Democrats having a month-long head start on campaigning over Republicans and the party quickly uniting behind Ferraro as its nominee, the campaign remained as unpredictable as ever as a sense of dread fell over the RNC and the White House as the Republican grip on the presidency appeared to be at serious risk because of a divisive primary despite the booming economy and peace abroad.

 

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State of the Primaries: Final Results

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Chapter 10: Unity in the Big Easy

“When I think about the long journey I’ve been on over the past 14 months, I cannot help but think of my mother who’s here tonight with us. I know that I would not be here if it wasn’t without her support, her encouragement, and her belief that I could have a better life than she did, that I shouldn’t be treated differently just because I was a woman. She always told me throughout my life, “Gerry, you can do whatever you want to do. You can be whatever you want to be, all you need to do is work hard for it.” That’s something I’ve always carried with me because that is the American promise that has echoed forward since the birth of this nation, that’s what has drawn so many people from all across the world to immigrate here in search of a better life. It’s why my parents came to this country over 60 years ago with very little money in their pockets. It is our duty to keep that powerful promise alive for all Americans, as it has been alive for all of us here tonight.

My fellow Americans, it is with great pride and humility and a profound and endless belief in the American promise that I accept your nomination for President of the United States.” – Geraldine Ferraro, July 21, 1988​

The convention burst into a roaring applause as the same emotions that had run high nearly four years ago to the day once again filled the hall. A profound sense of the significance of this moment washed over the assembled delegates in the Louisiana Superdome. Cheers of “Gerry! Gerry! Gerry!” rang out, women cried the same tears of joy that had flowed when Ferraro had accepted the vice presidential nomination in 1984. If that had been a watershed moment for women, this was an even bigger one. Another crack in the glass ceiling, another barrier broken, and one which would resonate across all of America. Even men in attendance felt the power and energy of the moment. A woman would be the nominee for president for one of the major parties and America would never be able to go backwards from that moment. It made all of the events that had led up to this moment seem insignificant yet they too were an important part of the story.

After Ferraro’s victories on June 7, Joe Biden conceded the nomination to her and formally endorsed her campaign for president, stating that “while [he] ran a strong campaign Gerry ran an even stronger one and it was time for all Democrats to get behind her as the party’s nominee.” This message of unity would give way to the usual media speculation about who Ferraro would pick as her running mate, a time-honored tradition that today has been dubbed “Veepstakes.” Many names were put forward by the media: Tennessee Sen. Al Gore; Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, the runner-up for the Democratic nomination; Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, another former candidate for the nomination; even names as far out there as California Rep. Ron Dellums, a black liberal from Oakland, or Chrysler CEO Lee Iacocca were thrown around. Quite of few of these names appeared on Ferraro’s list of considerations for vice president, many that were not also appeared. Ferraro was looking for someone with more experience than her, particularly on foreign policy and defense, and someone who was more moderate to balance out the ticket and appeal to the center. The Democratic Leadership Council and southern Democrats pushed hard for her to pick a southern Democrat and put forward several names in addition to Sen. Gore: Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, Arkansas Sen. Dale Bumpers, Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, Kentucky Sen. Walter Huddleston, Georgia Gov. Joe Frank Harris, and Fmr. Texas Gov. Mark White. All ended up being considered by Ferraro, as did other names from across the West and Midwest: Ohio Sen. John Glenn, New Mexico Sen. Jeff Bingaman, Fmr. Colorado Gov. Dick Lamm, Michigan Gov. James Blanchard, and California Rep. Tony Coelho. In addition, two former presidential challengers from these regions appeared on her list: Illinois Sen. Paul Simon and Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt. She also considered several members of the House Committees on Armed Services and Foreign Affairs: Wisconsin Rep. Les Aspin and Virginia Rep. Owen Pickett from the former and Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton and Washington Rep. Don Bonker from the latter.

By the beginning of July her shortlist had been narrowed to five names: Al Gore, Joe Biden, John Glenn, Lee Hamilton, and Lloyd Bentsen. She met with each of them in her home in Queens, gaging how well they would be able to work together and asking additional questions as part of the vetting process. All of them were moderate-to-conservative Democrats from two critical regions for Ferraro: the South and the Midwest. Four of them had either previously served or currently served on the defense and foreign affairs committees in either the House or the Senate. Three of them came from swing states that could determine the result of the election. All of them had been in Congress for more than ten years and were well respected by their colleagues. While Ferraro’s campaign staff had been pushing for her to consider a governor to provide balance on executive leadership, her desire to shore up concerns over experience with foreign relations and defense matters had trumped these. As she considered each choice carefully her aides knew she was dwelling on one candidate who had the right balance of experience, foreign relations and defense knowledge, and being from a swing state as well as being someone Ferraro found easy to get along with. On July 12 Ferraro announced her decision at a press conference in New York City.

After much deliberation she had settled on John Glenn, the first American to orbit the Earth and the Senior Senator from Ohio, as her running mate. A Marine during WWII and a fighter pilot during the Korean War, Glenn had a distinguished career in the military and later in NASA as a member of the Mercury Seven, the first American astronauts. He had made his leap into politics first in 1970, when he made a failed run for the Democratic nomination for the Senate and was defeated by future Senator Howard Metzenbaum, before running again successfully in 1974 in the wake of Watergate. During his 14 years in the U.S. Senate he had racked up a moderate record and served on both the Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees, the former for eight years from 1977-1984 and the latter for the past three and a half years, as well as mount an unsuccessful campaign for president in 1984. He checked all of Ferraro’s boxes and, more importantly, came from the critical swing state of Ohio where he remained quite popular. Despite insistence from southern Dems that Ferraro couldn’t win without the South, her campaign had been developing a “Northern Strategy” that would play on her strength in the Northeast and ability to appeal to working-class Reagan Democrats in the Midwest. Ohio was a crucial piece of that strategy and with predictions of a potentially close election she was not going to take any chances despite polls showing her with mid-single digit to double digit leads over Bush, Dole, and Robertson.

The 1988 Democratic National Convention began on July 18, 1988 to much fanfare from the media over the historic nature of the convention. The first day featured the keynote address from Tennessee Sen. Al Gore, a concession to southern Dems over the nomination of John Glenn for vice president. He discussed how the Democrats were the party of the American family, praised Ferraro as a family woman who understood the concerns of working families, and talked about how the Democrats were the “party of the future and the party of honesty and integrity, two things that cannot be said about the Republicans.” While his speech was well received it also ran on at times and Gore did not come off as a particularly engaging speaker. He was followed by former Vice President Walter Mondale, who gave a strong rebuke of the Reagan Administration, calling it an “administration built to help out the rich while ignoring the middle class” and applaud Ferraro for “understanding that what people want is compassionate leadership that recognizes their problems, not callous leadership that says their problems are all their fault and only they can do something to fix it.” The first day was capped by former President Jimmy Carter, who gave an at times rambling recount of his presidency before hitting Reagan and the current Republican contenders for the nomination, saying that Reagan had “squandered all the work I had done to keep our deficit in check” and that all of the men seeking to succeed him “don’t seem to particularly care about doing the tough work necessary to balance the budget.” He then said that he knew Ferraro would make the tough calls necessary and that “Gerry can be trusted to not only balance the budget but return integrity to the presidency in the same way that [he] did 12 years before.”

The second night of the DNC kicked off with a memorial to the late Rev. Jesse Jackson, with a stirring speech by his wife, Jacqueline Brown, who said that he had “stood for the idea all Americans deserved to be treated as equals to each other” and mentioned that “Gerry Ferraro understands the need to bring people in this country together, not divide them, and if we want to make sure Jesse’s legacy isn’t forgotten then we need to elect her president this November.” This caused a bit of unease, however, from some Democrats and Ferraro allies who were afraid of hugging to closely to Jackson for fear of turning off Reagan Democrats who felt that he didn’t represent them or the Democratic Party they knew. Following this was a speech by Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, the “Liberal Lion” of the Senate, who recalled the energy that his late-brother John had brought to the presidency and the commitment to civic duty that his instilled upon the American people and said that “[he] saw that same spark within Gerry, a deep and abiding commitment to public service and passion for making a difference in people’s lives.” He also painted a picture of the Democratic Party as one “ultimately committed to the idea that everybody, no matter their gender, religion, class, race, or status, has the right to be able to work hard and give their children the life they deserve.” Afterwards came Texas State Treasurer Ann Richards, who gave a rousing and folksy speech roasting the Reagan Administration as one of “fundamentally disconnected from the struggles of real Americans, blaming them for their problems and not even lifting a finger to do anything about it.” Most memorably she described Bush, Dole, and Robertson as “Humpty, Dumpty, and the Wall” respectively and said that no matter which side Bush or Dole fell on “they ain’t never gonna able to put the Republican Party back together again.”

The second night was finished off by Joe Biden’s speech, considered one of the best of the convention, where he called for a “renewal of the American spirit that has been trampled by trickle-down economics and false promises that it would pull everybody up,” and specifically said that Democrats “are the party of middle class values, pulling yourself up by the bootstraps and working hard to give your children the life they deserve” but that they understood “it means the government is there to open the doors of opportunity, not hold one’s hand all the way throughout their life.” He also heaped praise on Geraldine Ferraro, saying that she “understood the struggles and needs of America’s families because she has faced many of them herself and there’s no doubt in my mind that she will listen to people’s stories and will not forget them when she’s in the White House.” Coming out of it there was a sense that Biden was a rising star within the party and was in a strong position to win the Democratic nomination in 1992 or 1996 if he decided to run again and his speech helped rally his supporters behind Ferraro. The Democratic Party was united behind her and her campaign, come hell or high water.

The third night was consumed by the roll call vote for the nominations for President and Vice President, both of which Ferraro and Glenn won handily. Biden, despite rallying behind Ferraro, did have his name put into nomination and received the votes of 30% of the delegates. It also featured a speech by Connecticut Rep. Barbara Kennelly, a close friend of Ferraro’s from her time in the House who had introduced her before her VP acceptance speech in 1984, who most notably said that Ferraro was “one of the toughest women [she] knew” but that she also “was able to reach across the aisle and build coalitions around the issues that mattered most to her” and that it would serve her well as president. Then came the fourth and final night of the convention, when Glenn and Ferraro would be giving their acceptance speeches. Glenn came first, introduced by Ohio Gov. Dick Celeste, and he gave an average speech recounting his life of service in the military and later NASA, his experience as part of the Mercury Seven and on the Friendship 7 mission that saw him orbit the Earth, and his years of service to the people of Ohio in the United States Senate. The most memorable line from his speech was when he said that while “we were working on simply orbiting the Earth, I know that Gerry would have been the one shooting for the moon.”

Finally it was time for Ferraro to speak, but first she would be introduced by her close friend and New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, who had given a stirring keynote address at the 1984 DNC. He called Ferraro “a champion not just for women but for working and middle class Americans” and said that she would “pay attention to the forgotten men and women of this country, those left behind by the Reagan administration, and will bring the change that America most sorely needs.” Then Ferraro took the stage and gave a strong and inspiring speech that was widely lauded in the media and would end up being used in commercials during the fall campaign. She talked about her own life experiences as the daughter of immigrants, from her parent’s arrival in America to her father’s death to her mother having to raise her and her brother all by herself. She molded her speech around what she called the “American promise” as told to her by her mother, that advancement in life was open to those who put the work in for it and that is was time for change so that the many Americans who were still struggling despite the economic prosperity the country was experiencing would have an ally in the White House. She framed her own nomination as not just a victory for women but a victory for all Americans and a reaffirmation that the "American promise" was still achievable. She also called for the need for tougher action on crime, reform of America’s education system, fair trade policies, and stronger enforcement of environmental regulations to “protect American families and workers while ensuring that doors of opportunity remain open for all.” Job training, deficit reduction, and college affordability were also key issues mentioned in her speech, complementing her message of a renewal of the American promise and proclamation that “you can count on me to always been on your side, fighting for you and your families and not the special interests in Washington.”

After the convention concluded Ferraro received a modest boost in the polls, polling 10 points ahead of Bush and Dole and 14 ahead of Robertson. With the wind at their backs, Ferraro and Glenn flew up to St. Louis and embarked on a week-long bus tour from there to New York City, hitting the crucial swing states of Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey along the way as they took advantage of their one month head start over the Republicans. Ferraro was met with the same enthusiastic crowds as during the primaries and the tour itself received quite a bit of press coverage because of the low-activity in D.C. owing to it being an election year and the continued wrangling behind the scenes on the Republican side as the party continued barreling toward a contested convention. Most of the tour was focused on bread and butter issues, the kinds that Ferraro hoped to be able to use to win over voters in the fall. Despite the press coverage that was given, however, Ferraro also faced attacks from Republicans hoping to distract from their own troubles, with Dole accusing her of being a liberal whose values “were out of touch with Middle America” and Bush laying into her as lacking “the experience necessary to take on the job of president.” While Ferraro brushed these off it was a preview of the sorts of attacks Republicans would level against her after their own convention. First, however, they had to decide on a nominee.

 

[Sombergen]

Chapter 11: 1139 Votes

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“….and it appears that the RNC will be heading to a third ballot for the first time in forty years as the fight for the Republican nomination for president continues to be deadlocked between Vice President Bush, Senator Minority Leader Dole, and Pat Robertson. This is the scenario that party leaders have feared for weeks as each of these men has wrangled for delegates behind the scenes hoping to gain an advantage over the other. So far it appears that has done little to break the impasse within the party, especially with the surge in support for Robertson on the second ballot. There have been rumblings from top Republicans of finding a compromise candidate if Vice President Bush fails to win a majority of delegates on the third ballot. I’ve heard from sources that Fmr. Pennsylvania Gov. Dick Thornburgh is the name that has been floated around in party leadership, but so far RNC Chairman Fahrenkopf has denied that such discussions are taking place.

Nevertheless, if one thing can be taken out of tonight it’s that the Republican Party is in disarray after a divisive and bitter primary and there’s no way of knowing who will end up with the nomination at this point.” – Dan Rather, August 15, 1988​

The two months until the RNC was a scramble for delegates between Bush, Dole, and Robertson. While the Democrats were busy lining up behind Ferraro, the phones of every delegate to the RNC were ringing with calls from one of the candidates asking for their support on the second ballot. The only delegates spared from this barrage were those from New Hampshire and Nebraska which bound delegates to their primary winner for the all ballots at the RNC, leaving Dole with 48 guaranteed votes in Houston. Many expressed irritation with the efforts to court their support, with one stating that he was trying to have dinner one night with his family but that he was getting calls “practically every five minutes or so from one person or another associated with the Bush or Dole campaigns, as well as members of the RNC” and even at one point “from the Chairman himself to urge me to back the candidate with the best chance of getting a majority on the second ballot” so that there could be a swift end to the convention. It was not kept secret that many within the Republican establishment were pushing for Bush, even as Dole maintained many strong ties to the establishment as the party’s leader within the Senate, because he was the closest candidate to a majority and had the private support of President Reagan. Despite that, he was not an overwhelmingly favorite for the nomination.

Of the delegates from minor candidates who had withdrawn from the race previously, both Donald Rumsfeld and Al Haig were urging their delegates, which they had released since their withdrawals from the race, to back Bob Dole for the Republican nomination. For Rumsfeld, it was because of longstanding bad blood between him and Bush that went all the way back to the Ford administration when Rumsfeld, then Ford’s Chief of Staff, pushed hard for him to choose Nelson Rockefeller as his Vice President over Bush, who was relegated to CIA Director instead which he saw as an attempt to sidetrack his own political ambitions. This was reciprocated six years later in 1980 when Reagan passed over Rumsfeld as his running mate and instead chose Bush despite Rumsfeld viewing himself as more in line with Reagan’s positions than Bush was. In the case of Haig it was because of his own bitterness toward Bush because of lingering tensions from his time as Secretary of State which had boiled over in his failed presidential campaign when he battered Bush over his lack of leadership and poor judgement. Jack Kemp, on the other hand, surprised many when he announced his own support for Bush and told them to vote for him at the convention. There was speculation that Bush was seriously considering him as a potential running mate and that Kemp had backed Bush in an attempt to curry favor and win him over, speculation which both of them denied. Nevertheless, Bush still remained nearly 80 delegates short of the nomination as the RNC approached in mid-August.

As the Republicans gathered in the Houston Astrodome on August 15, still without a nominee, the usual Democrat-bashing and praise of Reagan gave way to worry and infighting as the usual speeches to rally party unity were forced to be postponed until the party had a nominee. The day was filled with procedural motions on the floor as the first ballot would not begin until prime time at 7pm Central time (8pm Eastern). The only dramatic moment in this affair was a push by Robertson to unbound all delegates on the first ballot, which failed to be adopted by the convention but got over 500 votes, more than the number of delegates bound to Robertson. When 7pm rolled by each candidate was given the opportunity to address the delegates before the roll call vote began. Bush declared himself the heir to Reagan and reiterated that he received the most delegates and votes compared to Dole and Robertson and thus had the most support from the party’s base. Dole portrayed himself as the figure best poised to unite the party and bring together moderates and conservatives as well as the GOP’s best chance for victory in November. Finally Robertson took the stage and proceeded to paint himself as a true defender of the conservative cause and the only candidate who would carry forward the spirit of Reagan’s legacy for another four years. Following this, the roll call vote was conducted and the results went as expected. Because of strong whip games from both Bush and Dole both of them were able to capture all of the delegates from those who had endorsed them, leaving the totals as 1062 delegates for Bush, 870 for Dole, and 375 for Robertson. Then the convention moved on to a second ballot and things got interesting.

While Bush and Dole had been busy fighting over the nomination between themselves during most of the primary season following Super Tuesday, Robertson’s campaign had been hard at work behind the scenes stacking delegations with his supporters. Even though the usual primaries and caucuses determined the allocation of delegates between candidates on the first ballot of the convention, the selection of individual delegates to the RNC in a majority of states was determined by district and statewide conventions and not by direct election in primary elections. As such, one candidate could theoretically stack delegations with their supporters who would be bound to vote for their opponents at the convention but would be on their side when drafting the party platform and voting on procedural matters at the convention. This tactic dated all the way back to 1912, the first year when multiple states held widely publicized primaries to allocate delegates to the national convention, when Taft had stacked delegations with his supporters in states that Teddy Roosevelt had swept in the primaries and gave himself control over procedural motions that were decisive in denying Roosevelt the nomination. Robertson, taking a page out of Taft’s book, had his supporters storm district and statewide conventions across the South, Midwest, and West and wrangle control from the party establishment in many but not all places. Incidents in Georgia and North Carolina had been publicized in The New York Times and the Washington Post when Robertson’s supporters had gotten court orders to stop the party establishment in these states from refusing to seat them at their conventions.

Despite being far from enough to give him the nomination these Trojan delegates allowed him to push the Republican platform toward the right and act as a thorn in the side of the Republican establishment, which was well aware of what his campaign had been up to and had been urging Bush and Dole to take actions to stop him to only moderate success. The extent of this only became clear on the second ballot of the convention when, in one fell swoop, Robertson gained over 200 delegates owing to defections from those who had been bound to vote for Bush and Dole on the first ballot but were, in fact, hidden Robertson supporters. This was not a surprise to those within both the Bush and Dole campaigns who had been well aware of Robertson’s stealth efforts to bolster his hand as well as those in the national media who had been hearing rumors about this for weeks. Nevertheless, it sent alarm through Republican leadership as the party ended up deadlocking for a second straight ballot with Bush down to 909 delegates, Dole down to 793, and Robertson up to 575. All the while the media salivated over the chaos on the convention floor as Robertson claimed momentum going into the third ballot and urged the convention to unite behind him as the heir to Reagan’s legacy. Robertson’s gamble to increase his hand as a kingmaker payed off and unless a compromise candidate entered the race, a possibility now being floated by party leadership, either Bush or Dole would owe the nomination and potentially their presidency to Robertson and his loyal supporters. With midnight passing and the third ballot scheduled for next evening the fight for the Republican nomination continued.

Calls went out from both Bush’s and Dole’s temporary convention HQs along with visits in the middle of the night and early in the morning to influential power brokers by senior aides to win over delegates for the third ballot. Fmr. White House Chief of Staff Howard Baker was also at the convention on Reagan’s behalf and was working behind the scenes to win over Dole delegates for Bush to get him to the magic number of 1,139. Meanwhile RNC Chairman Frank Fahrenkopf had huddled with RNC leadership earlier in the night to determine a potential compromise candidate should Bush fail to secure a majority on the third ballot. Several names were floated but the consensus drew around Fmr. PA Gov. Dick Thornburgh who had balanced eight budgets in a row, slashed taxes, reformed Pennsylvania’s welfare system, and overseen strong job growth in the state – a record that any Republican could get behind - not to mention the fact that he came from a key swing state that Republicans were hoping to hold. Reagan signed off on Thornburgh as a compromise but still remained committed to seeing Bush nominated on the fourth ballot, although his confidence in Bush began to waver a bit. Thornburgh’s name ended up being leaked to the press after a call had been placed to his hotel room from Fahrenkopf himself to see if he was open to it. While Thornburgh was reluctant to put his name forward on the fourth ballot, having been recently approached by President Reagan to be tapped for Attorney General, he expressed support for the effort but didn’t agree on anything until the third ballot was conducted.

Then on the morning of August 16th all hell broke loose before the convention reconvened when the Washington Post published a front page article in its morning edition containing on-the-record quotes from several current and former Reagan aides, most prominently Lyn Nofziger who was currently under investigation for ethics violations during his tenure in the White House, who said that they had been opposed to Reagan’s decision to put Bush on the ticket in 1980 because they thought he was too liberal. Many claimed that they still didn’t believe he was conservative enough to be trusted to uphold Reagan’s legacy and that they were concerned that he could blow the election for Republicans because of deep distrust of him from the party’s conservative wing who might not be enthused enough to turn out to vote for him. This story rocked the confidence of delegates that Bush had been able to win over to his side and caused the cancellation of a planned meeting between Bush and Robertson later that day. The previous confidence that Lee Atwater had that Bush would be able to secure victory on the third ballot evaporated as many Dole delegates made the decision to stick with him rather than vote for Bush. Privately Bush and his staff believed that Dole had been behind the story, thinking that he had made contact with disgruntled Reagan aides who were frustrated that he was sticking by Bush despite what they thought were his weaknesses as a candidate and his inability to become a unifying figure for the party and using that to undermine the push for a Bush nomination on the third ballot.

Meanwhile in his hotel room not too far from the Astrodome Dole was meeting privately with Pat Robertson, hoping to win over his support on the third ballot and secure the nomination as both of them despised Bush for his attacks during the primaries. Specific details of their conversation were not made public until the publishing of Dole’s memoir, The Sacrifices of Politics, in 1999. It revealed that Robertson had pressured Dole to commit to pursuing a more conservative agenda as president, especially on social issues such as abortion and welfare, and to making Robertson his running mate to bring his supporters into the fold and unite the party. Dole was more open to moving on issues than naming Robertson as his running mate, fearing the numerous issues that picking him would bring to a potential ticket. He brought up the names of other conservatives who might be more palatable to the party and to the public, such as Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle or retiring Nevada Sen. Paul Laxalt, but Robertson refused to budge. An argument ensued and Robertson stormed out of Dole’s hotel room, any negotiations between them seemingly over. Then came the third ballot, a tense affair for all of the campaigns. Dole watched as the drip of defections played out as each state’s roll call vote came. 9 delegates in Alabama, 12 delegates he had taken from Bush in California, 15 in Illinois, 6 in Indiana. However, it quickly became apparent that the defections were not nearly as many as his staff had feared. Suddenly Dole still had a chance of taking the nomination from Bush but time was running out as the word was that Thornburgh would enter the race on the fourth ballot with a hastily assembled team of Thornburgh aides and party staffers already reaching out to Dole and Bush delegates to get them to support Thornburgh and allow him to lock up the nomination. Dole sprang into action and, against his better instincts, phoned up Robertson as the balloting was still in progress. They met again and, in the desperation of both of them losing what they wanted most – Dole the nomination and Robertson leverage over the party’s nominee – they came to an agreement. Robertson would be Dole’s running mate but, in return, Dole wouldn’t have to move as far to the right as Robertson wanted him to and would wait until after the conclusion of the fourth ballot before announcing Robertson as his running mate. They shook and the meeting was over.

The third ballot concluded and Bush had managed to only take 120 delegates from Dole, leaving him only ten delegates ahead of where he had started at on the first ballot and still a little more than 60 away from the nomination. Shortly afterward Pat Robertson, standing next to Bob Dole, announced in a last minute press conference that he was withdrawing from the race for the Republican nomination and throwing his support behind Bob Dole on the fourth ballot. He urged his supporters to vote for Dole because “the liberal George Bush does not stand a chance in November, neither does any man the establishment tries to put up who didn’t receive a single vote during the primaries” and that Bob Dole “was the only conservative left who supports traditional values and stands any chance against Gerry Ferraro.” Republican leadership was stunned and worried about what Dole had agreed to. Reports came in of Dole delegates refusing to vote for Thornburgh following Robertson’s announcement as it appeared that Dole had a chance to win the nomination after all. Fahrenkopf, with the agreement of Reagan and Howard Baker, got on the phone with Thornburgh and called off the draft effort, hoping to preserve party unity and prevent another deadlock on the fourth ballot because of a split between Dole, Bush, and Thornburgh. Nevertheless, some of Dole’s delegates ended up being spooked by his agreement with Robertson and refused to back him again on the fourth ballot at the same time that many of Robertson’s supporters remained dismayed that he had withdrawn in favor of Dole. It appeared that the deadlock could continue on the fourth ballot despite the best efforts of Dole and Robertson. The vote was tight until the end but Dole secured the nomination with only three votes to spare, 1142 delegates to Bush’s 1126 with only 9 Robertson delegates refusing to vote for Dole. Dole would be the Republican nominee and the party could finally move on to the rest of the convention.

When Dole announced Robertson as his running mate on the morning of Day 3 of the RNC it was not well received by many of the delegates as well as party officials who believed his bombastic statements and evangelism would turn off moderate voters in the fall that the party was hoping to keep hold of in order to secure important victories in swing states like Michigan, California, and Illinois. The opposition was strong enough that the VP nomination vote was held before the prime time slot and held by voice vote rather than a roll call vote, a move that hadn’t been taken before but was necessitated by the unease felt by many delegates regarding the pick of Robertson. The convention then commenced its first round of prime time speakers, headlined by Illinois Congresswoman Lynn Martin, considered a rising star within the party, and President Reagan who had flown in the day before in preparation for his speech that night. But first freshman Arizona Sen. John McCain spoke to the convention to kick things off. His speech focused on his service in the Navy during Vietnam and his time as a POW of the Vietcong after his capture in 1967, when he was tortured and imprisoned for five and a half years before finally being released. He then showered praise on President Reagan’s focus on increased defense spending and military build-up, saying that it “keeps America strong and deters the Soviets and any of America’s other enemies of thinking of crossing us for fear of the consequences.” He also slammed the Democratic Party as “weak on defense” and called Ferraro “too inexperienced with foreign policy and defense matters to be trusted to keep America strong and respected around the world.” The speech was considered inspiring and was well received by the media. Things then turned to Rep. Martin, who gave a widely panned speech that was criticized as “too rambling and devoid of substance” and “a failure to explain why women should vote for Bob Dole in November.” Even though she attempted to connect to suburban women and declared that the Republicans were the party that would “defend and strengthen American families and give our children a better future” she seemed unable to explain why that was the case. The hope that she would be able to effectively attack Ferraro also backfired when she instead praised her as an “example of how women can navigate politics” before attempting to slam her for her husband’s ethical issues. All said it was considered to be a missed opportunity for Republicans and hurt Martin’s political career but it was soon forgotten when President Reagan spoke to the convention.

Taking the stage to rousing cheers of “Ronnie! Ronnie! Ronnie!” Reagan went over all of the achievements of his administration, from the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the success of Reaganomics to the invasion of Grenada, the six years of economic growth, the renewal of confidence within America, and the numerous arms agreements he negotiated with Gorbachev which were a sign of the success of his push to turn back the tide of communism. Then he slammed Ferraro and the Democrats for saying that “all of this was a complete failure because I sure can’t see it” and declaring that “hope has been returned to America and it’s now our duty to keep the hope alive another four years even as the Democrats claim nothing but doom and gloom.” Reagan also proceeded to praise Dole for his leadership in the Senate, saying that Dole was “a staunch supporter of [his] agenda” and would “build on the progress I have made over the past eight years as the next President of the United States.” He finished off his speech by calling on all Republicans to unite behind the Dole/Robertson ticket noting that “as Lincoln said all those years ago, ‘a House divided against itself cannot stand’” and saying that “we must stand together and make sure all that we have worked for, all of the progress that we have made to renewing our commitment to liberty, strengthening America, and returning responsibility back to people.” He was applauded for reminding Republicans what they were fighting to defend and for reminding voters how much he had turned America around over the eight years of his presidency.

Finally the last night of the convention arrived. It would be kicked off by a speech from Kentucky Gov. Mitch McConnell, who gave a mediocre speech that nevertheless stated in strong words that the “South was waking up and seeing that the Democrat Party has grown out of touch with Southern values” and that they were slowly but surely “turning toward the party of personal responsibility, family values, and smaller government” and stating in no uncertain terms that “Dole is going to sweep the entire South and with it the White House.” He was then followed by Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle who gave a short introductory speech for Pat Robertson, saying that Robertson has been “working for years from the ground up to build a lasting conservative movement to stand up for the sanctity of life, Christian values that put family first, and charity toward all men” and that he was proud to see “such a champion for traditional values as the next Vice President of the United States.” Robertson then took to the stage and gave what became an infamous acceptance speech dubbed the “Two Americas” speech. In it he stated that there were two Americas, one of “the traditional Christian values that have guided America since the Pilgrims landed at Plymouth” and one of “radical feminism, abortion-on-demand, discrimination against religious schools, and homosexual rights” that “threatened to undermine the foundations of America as God’s country.” He said that these two Americas were “inevitably in conflict” and that only he and Bob Dole “stand for the preservation of American morals that are being torn down by Gerry Ferraro and her gang of out-of-control liberals pushing to change America for the worst.” The speech was widely panned by the media who called it “divisive and mean-spirited” and turned into a controversy for Bob Dole whose judgment began to be doubted for choosing Pat Robertson as his running mate and failing to vet his acceptance speech. Nevertheless, it roused conservatives within the Republican Party who were still working hard to claw their way to power even as it pushed away liberal and moderate Republicans at the same time. It also marked the beginning of what sociologists called the “culture wars” and while not articulated in those terms it nevertheless drove a wedge on social issues between Republicans and Democrats and divided the Reagan coalition.

Finally Bob Dole gave his speech after being introduced by his wife Elizabeth. He went over his life growing up in rural Kansas, his service in WWII and the injury he suffered that would forever change his life and limit his ability to use his right arm, and his years of public service on behalf of the people of Kansas from his days in the Kansas State House to his four-terms in the U.S. House of Representatives and twenty years in the Senate. Dole then proceeded to make the bold statement that the “Reagan era is here to stay” and that he would make sure as president to “stop the Democrats from gutting our military, raising taxes, and bloating the size of government.” Yet he a struck a conciliatory tone saying that nevertheless as president he would “work across the aisle to seek compromise on issues of great importance to the American people” because “compromise is no sin when done in service of the public interest.” He criticized Ferraro as “lacking the experience necessary to handle the intricacies of Cold War diplomacy” and slammed her as being “ethically challenged to a degree never seen before by a candidate for president” and that her promises of running an honest and transparent administration was a “smokescreen that ignores her own husband’s shady dealings with criminals” and “illegal business practices that would put any honest businessman to shame.” He promised to run an administration “full of honor and integrity” and to “never lie to the American people” in an attempt to distance himself from Reagan and the Iran-Contra affair and Ferraro’s own ethical challenges. He concluded by saying that “America is still that shining city on the hill and with your help we can keep it shining for many years to come.” While some viewed his speech as too negative, overall it was well received although not to the same degree that Ferraro’s speech was the month before. Despite this, Dole still saw a 4 point bounce in the polls and was only trailing Ferraro by 6 points as the 1988 RNC ended and the fall campaign began in earnest.

 

[Sombergen]

Chapter 12: A True American Campaign

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“Gerry Ferraro may be the biggest celebrity in America but is she ready to lead? She opposes the Strategic Defense Initiative, opposed funding for the MX missile, and opposed the B1-B bomber. Weaker defenses, stronger enemies abroad; that is the real Ferraro. America can do better.” - Dole TV ad, Late August-Early September 1988 ​

With the conventions behind them, both campaigns jumped headlong into the fall campaign. Each developed their own strategy for winning the election. For Ferraro, it was the “Northern Strategy” her campaign had been banking on for months and that had influenced her decision to choose Glenn as her running mate. Understanding that she would likely not have much appeal in the South as a liberal northerner, her campaign instead was resting on her strength with ethnic voters in the Northeast, working class voters in the Midwest, and suburban women throughout both and along the West Coast to deliver her to victory. Her campaign planned on heavily targeting Republican-leaning swing states such as Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, and Ohio while moving Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, and California decisively into the Democratic column and using dissatisfaction over the farming crisis to win over voters in Iowa, Missouri, the Dakotas, and Montana. It broke from the longstanding strategies used by Democrats which had long rested on winning at least some states in the South. Indeed, no Democrat had ever been elected to the White House without winning several of the states of the former Confederacy. Southern Democrats in particular were irate that the Ferraro campaign was ignoring them after having gotten hope that she could potentially reverse Democratic declines at the presidential level in the region. Despite this, Ferraro’s campaign marched forward with this strategy going into the fall.

Dole’s strategy rested on holding the increasingly Republican states of the South as well as more traditionally Republican states in the Plains and Mountain West while winning Republican-leaning swing states in the Midwest and Northeast such as Ohio, New Jersey, and Delaware that Ferraro was also targeting as well as the perennial battleground state of Michigan. While Dole’s campaign hoped to be able to win Pennsylvania and Illinois as well polling was showing that these states were leaning toward Ferraro and would be hard to win if the election ended up being close. Dole also hoped to use his connection to farm voters owing to his Kansan roots to prevent huge gains by Ferraro across the northern Plains in states like Montana and both of the Dakotas as well as in Missouri. His campaign was also hoping on being able to hold onto California which had been slowly growing more Democratic as each election passed despite continued Republican victories election after election. With Robertson on the ticket, however, there was fear that it was going to end up becoming out of reach.

Both candidates, continuing on from their convention speeches, defined themselves to the American people. Ferraro was presenting herself as a product of the American Dream and as a tough but compassionate public servant who would bring new leadership and change to America and stand with working families; Dole as a strong, experienced, and pragmatic conservative leader who would restore integrity to the White House while continuing the Reagan legacy for another four years. Inevitably, however, such positive portrayals of both candidates would soon be buried under negative campaigning instigated by the Dole campaign that had started with his acceptance speech at the RNC. Six points down and determined to close the gap, Dole launched into attacks on Ferraro’s experience in an ad entitled “Celebrity” which painted Ferraro as unprepared to lead and weak on defense, playing into her own inexperience and sexist perceptions of female leadership that had cropped up time after time during the primaries. Ferraro shot back, telling reporters on a swing through southern California that she “was well prepared to handle the duties of Commander-in-Chief” and that she “wouldn’t be running for president if she thought she wasn’t up for the job.” She also reiterated her support for maintaining a “strong but efficient defense” and saying that she was committed to “ensuring that America was spending her defense dollars effectively.” This was spun by Dole as Ferraro being committed to “preventing the development of innovative new weapons systems that could further strengthen America” in the face of its enemies.

Meanwhile Ferraro launched her own attack on Dole, airing an extremely effective ad shortly after Labor Day entitled “One Heartbeat Away” criticizing Dole’s choice of the controversial and divisive Robertson as his running mate. The ad itself consisted of a slow panning in on the Resolute Desk as audio of controversial statements by Robertson was played, including his prophecies of the end of the world, his infamous “big government atheists” gaffe, and statements from his “Two Americas” speech among others with the ad ending with the narrator announcing over an image of the president’s chair “Pat Robertson: One Heartbeat Away from the Presidency.” The Dole campaign and Republicans were in an uproar over the ad, partially because many were still upset that Dole had been so desperate that he would pick Robertson as his running mate while others feared how badly it could go down with moderate swing voters looking to ensure America was in a safe pair of hands should Dole be incapacitated or pass away while president. Pat Robertson was notably furious after the ad aired and held a press conference the day after it aired to say that the “Godless liberal Democrat Party is trying to smear [his] name” and stating that he “was as fit as ever to assume the office of Vice President.” He also stated that Ferraro was “distracting from her own lack of inexperience for the job” and stated that she would be the “least qualified president in American history” if she won the election. While such attacks blunted the impact of the ad a bit it took its toll, with the gains Dole had made over the past three weeks being erased as Ferraro and Glenn took this attack to the campaign trail as well. Then Dole decided to go all in against Ferraro.

Ferraro’s greatest weakness had been controversies regarding her husband’s real estate business and purported ties he had to the Mafia that had emerged during Ferraro’s vice presidential campaign in 1984 and during the Democratic primaries. Much of it had been a product of longstanding ethnic stereotypes about Italian-Americans that were reinforced by movies like The Godfather, propagating images of corruption and Mafia connections that continued to feed into bigoted attitudes toward Italian-Americans. Dole’s campaign readily took advantage of this fact and, much the same way that the Reagan campaign had four years earlier, hit her where she was most vulnerable with the help of conservatives in the media. Although he had already been making comments on the campaign trail even before the RNC regrading rumors of John Zaccaro’s ties to organized crime, it was only in early-September that the Dole campaign released the “Pornography” ad which seized on the fact that a pornography distributor – Star Distributors Inc. – had been a tenant in a building half owned by Ferraro’s husband up until very recently. The ad slammed Ferraro and her husband for letting the firm owned by the late Robert DiBernardo, a captain in prominent Gambino crime family, continue to be a tenant for three more years after Ferraro had promised they would be evicted and questioning how “Gerry Ferraro can be trusted to keep her word as president” and be tough on crime “when her husband lets the Mafia rent out his buildings.” Ferraro shot back, saying that her husband “never knew Robert DiBernardo” and that they had “tried time and time again to get them evicted, without success.” She also accused the Dole campaign of ethnic slurs and innuendo, saying that “Italian-Americans have been demeaned and stigmatized too long for the activities of a few criminals” and that Sen. Dole “should know better than to continue to spread false beliefs that every Italian-American in this country has ties to organized crime.” A spokesman for the Dole campaign responded by saying that Dole “does not believe that all Italian-Americans have ties to the Mafia” but that Ferraro could have done “much, much more than she did” to evict Star Distributors and that this raised “serious questions about her credibility and integrity as president.” This line of attack would persist and continued to be brought up by Dole on the campaign trail whenever he questioned Ferraro’s ethics and integrity for office.

There were many other rumors swirling around in the media at the same, many that had also been swirling around in 1984, some more spurious and uncorroborated than others. One rumor, propagated by the New York Post, was that the chief-fundraiser for Ferraro’s 1978 House campaign had been a corrupt union official with ties to organized-crime families whose son worked as a summer intern at Ferraro’s Washington office in 1979. Another was that her husband had owned a gambling den run by a Chinese organized-crime syndicate and another building that was a hangout for another Mafia family. One of the most ridiculous rumors spread was that Ferraro’s father had actually been a front man for the Mafia and that his death wasn’t actually from a heart attack but a hit by the Mafia that had been covered-up. Ferraro only responded to the most factually based of these rumors, calling many of the others “ridiculous and false anti-Italian stories being spread to smear my name” and that it was distracting “from the issues that directly affect the lives of tens of millions of Americans.” The damage to her campaign, however, had been done. Her six point lead after the RNC evaporated into a dead heat with Dole by mid-September and there were even polls that showed her trailing him by three to four points. Losing momentum, Ferraro continued her vigorous campaign schedule and received help from a predictable source.

On September 13, at a campaign visit in Allentown, PA, Pat Robertson stated that “God would punish Gerry Ferraro for supporting the murder of unborn children” and that the Dole-Robertson ticket “was an instrument of God’s will.” This drew rebukes from the Ferraro campaign which stated that Robertson had “crossed the line by stating that God would punish one of his political opponents for a position they held” and that his rhetoric was “extremist, divisive, and inaccurate.” Ferraro said that she was “not ashamed to support a woman’s right to choose” but that Pat Robertson had no right “to claim that God takes a side in any political campaign.” There was pushback from evangelical Christians and the religious right who defended Robertson’s statements but even Bob Dole said that Robertson had gone too far in claiming that Ferraro would receive divine punishment for her position on abortion and that the only ones who would punish her would be the American people at the polls in November. This incident fed into the existing perceptions of Robertson as bringing religion too close to the political realm and turned off liberal, pro-choice Republicans and moderate independents who questioned Dole’s judgment in selecting Robertson as his running mate. Incidents like this would continue to emerge during the campaign, much to the chagrin of Dole and his staff who could not keep Robertson from making such controversial statements. Despite this, Ferraro was again besieged by anti-abortion protestors just as she had been in 1984 even as their numbers were much diminished from what they had been four years prior. She also continued to be in a dead heat with Bob Dole as his campaign attacked her for being a “New York liberal” who would “tax-and-spend the American people to no end" and whose values "did not align with those of the American heartland." Ferraro’s campaign had no choice but to once again go on the offensive against Dole as the daily attacks of the campaign wore on.

At a rally outside of Kansas City, Missouri on September 17 Ferraro accused Dole of being just “another tool of special interests” saying that he “may talk the talk of those looking to clean up politics but just look at this record” and began citing legislation he had pushed that benefited key fundraisers to his Senate campaigns and personal friends. She also slammed him for receiving preferential treatment in the purchase of a Florida property from an agribusiness executive whose company has benefited from Dole’s legislative efforts, saying that it reflected “who his real constituency is.” Then she touted herself as being on the side of the American people, saying that never in her time in Congress did she work on the behalf of anybody else other than “the men and women of New York’s 9th District” and pledged as president to “always fight for the interests of hardworking Americans.” This turned into a series of ads entitled “Double Standards” and “Constituents,” the former echoing her speech in criticizing Dole for hypocrisy on his treatment of special interests and painting him as a typical insider politician while the latter played up her constituent services during her time as a congresswoman, including clips of former constituents touting her commitment to fighting for their interests even if they hadn’t voted for her. It concluded with the statement that Ferraro would “represent the American people just as she represented her Queens constituents.” Dole shot back claiming that he “did not push legislation to benefit anybody other than the people of Kansas” and that Ferraro “could not claim she did not serve special interests when questions remain about her husbands’ ties to organized crime.” Despite Dole’s claims to the contrary, the media did drudge up additional instances where legislation presented by Dole seemed to benefit donors and allies, but also heaped skepticism onto Ferraro’s claims as lacking definitive proof. Nevertheless, they stuck in the minds of many voters as the race continued to be a dead heat with Ferraro leading in some polls and Dole in others as Ferraro clawed her way back from the damage done by Dole’s attacks on her husband’s business. Soon the date of the first debate arrived.

Held on September 25 at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, the first debate (focused on military and foreign policy but veering onto other topics as well) gave both campaigns the opportunity to break through the negativity that had characterized the campaign so far. Both Dole and Ferraro had been preparing for their first face-to-face sparing match for weeks, the first time a woman would appear on the presidential debate stage. When both of the candidates strolled onto the stage, shook hands, and took their places behind their lecterns any outcome seemed possible. Unfortunately for Ferraro, it wasn’t the one she wanted. Known to be a tough debater, Ferraro didn’t seem to bring that into the first debate as she was forced onto the defensive when asked a question about her husband’s alleged ties to organized crimes and stumbled, stating that it was a “bunch of false rumors and innuendo” and that there were “more important issues in the campaign than these fabricated allegations against [her] husband.” When pushed to respond to the specific allegations regarding Star Distributions Inc. and the delay in evicting them she said that “[she] and [her husband] did their best to push them out but they wouldn’t budge” to which Dole quipped “if that’s the best you can do then that’s not good enough.” While Ferraro by no means bombed the debate she failed to land punches against Dole as he projected confidence and strength. She did stand her own ground on foreign and defense policy questions, though, and shored up doubts that she wasn’t prepared to handle them due to her lack of experience but nevertheless by the time the debate concluded it was clear that she had not been on point. The media widely declared Dole the winner and published articles praising him for his “presidential appearance” and “deep knowledge of America’s defense needs” while Ferraro was considered to have missed an opportunity to move the race back in her direction. Polls taken after the debate showed Dole moving into the lead again by three to four points as Ferraro’s campaign worried that she was beginning to fall behind. With the vice presidential debate as well as the second presidential debate still ahead Ferraro still had opportunities to turn things around and there was no way to know what surprises could be in store in October.

 

[Sombergen]

Chapter 13: Stumbling Over the Finish Line

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“Anyone who says Bob Dole doesn’t care about helping people out is a liar, it’s simply not true. I have worked for years on behalf of the people of Kansas, I have stood up for farmers and working men and women struggling to make ends meet. I believe in the Reagan vision, that Americans are freer when government gets out of the way and taxes are lower, but I also know that there are some people who still need help like senior citizens. When Democrats and independents look at my record and look at Gerry Ferraro’s record I think it’ll be clear that I’m the candidate who will build on Reagan’s success while never forgetting the fact that you can’t do anything alone and that reaching across the aisle will be necessary to get anything done.

I’m confident, though, that we’ll pull this through in November. America is prosperous and at peace, why rock the boat and take a risk with Gerry Ferraro?” Bob Dole, October 8, 1988​

Bob Dole was riding high after the first presidential debate. Bolstered by his strong performance he plunged into reach states like Wisconsin and West Virginia as he sought to build a formidable Electoral College advantage that would hold off Ferraro and keep the White House in Republican hands for another four years. He had the low unemployment rate, steady economic growth, and reduction in tensions with the Soviet Union on his side as well as his own ability to appeal to Democrats and independents with his willingness to work across the aisle to get things done. He touted his work on the 1985 farm bill to appeal to farmers still struggling from the farming crisis, he presented a plan to eradicate crime with harsher enforcement and more police on the streets to appeal to suburban voters, and he promised to not raise taxes to appeal to conservatives still skeptical with his campaign. Dole said what people wanted to hear and despite his sometimes stiff personality he was seen as the stronger leader by voters even if they thought Ferraro was more likeable. With President Reagan campaigning with him across the country Republicans flocked to his side and it seemed he had the upper hand. He only had one big problem, though: Pat Robertson.

The boisterous televangelist with his habit of stirring controversy was no help to Dole’s campaign. Having been forced into accepting his demands (with some rumors he even agreed to a co-presidency despite it having yet to be disclosed) in order to win the nomination there was little he could do to control Robertson. This was no less clear than on the night of the vice presidential debate on October 5 which was widely regarded to be a victory by John Glenn, not that the vice presidential debate mattered much. When asked about his qualifications to assume the president, Pat Robertson said that “God has faith in my ability to lead this country” and that he had experience “running a successful television network for Christians” to which John Glenn retorted “Mr. Robertson, I don’t think running the government is the same as boosting ratings because, last time I checked, our ratings aren’t that good” which garnered laughter from the audience. He also attacked Ferraro as a “radical feminist who will destroy American families” and “weaken America’s moral authority” in the world. This drew a strong rebut from Glenn who said that Ferraro “has been a champion for working mothers across America” and that Robertson’s message of doom and gloom if Ferraro was elected “was as true as the numerous times he’s said that the world was going to end. Well, Pat, we’re all still here.” Glenn came off as experienced and prepared to assume the duties of president while Robertson sparked new doubts about his readiness to assume the office if it proved necessary.

Even with this new controversy the polls continued to show Dole narrowly leading Ferraro though with many voters still undecided. Ferraro, however, was undeterred. She continued to bring in enthusiastic crowds wherever she went, her rallies attended by tens of thousands and more than were showing up for Dole’s. Among her most committed supporters continued to be women: mothers who saw themselves in Ferraro, young women who believed Ferraro had opened up doors for them with her campaigns for vice president and president, and grandmothers who still remembered the days when women couldn’t even vote let alone run a serious campaign for president. Her commitment to helping out American workers by raising the minimum wage, her promises to fight for fair trade deals, and her vows to get tough on crime and touting of her support for the death penalty brought back Reagan Democrats as well as suburban voters who had long been a core part of the Republican coalition but were concerned about Robertson’s extreme religious views and the continued failures of Republicans to address issues of crime, education, and the deficit despite holding the presidency for eight years. Many still supported Dole, however, as there was skepticism that Ferraro was actually committed to helping middle-class Americans and many still viewed her as too liberal on economic issues. There was also underlying beliefs that Ferraro just wasn’t capable of being president, underlined by Dole’s attacks on her experience, that continued to push them away from her. There was also hesitation to support her because of the belief that Ferraro was too liberal on cultural issues, which was underscored by comments she continued to make on the campaign trail in support of gun control and women’s rights despite attempting to also appear tough on crime. Ferraro hoped to change these perceptions for some people and got her chance in the second debate.

In a break from tradition a new format was introduced for the second debate. Instead of being the traditional behind-the-podium debates where the moderator asked questions and the candidates answered them instead it would be in a town hall format with questions asked by members of the public that both candidates had agreed to. This had been pushed by Ferraro’s campaign as she was familiar with the format from the numerous and often difficult town halls in her district she held when she was in Congress. Her senior advisors believed she would be better able to connect with voters in person and show off her compassion, empathy, and ability to connect with people and understand their struggles in person. While Dole’s staff hadn’t been too receptive to it, fearing that it would be an unnecessary risk and had the potential to benefit Ferraro, he believed in holding it because he liked connecting with people and thought he would be able to turn it his way. Thus it came to be that the first ever town hall style presidential debate would be held at the University of San Diego on October 13 that largely focused on domestic issues. As the debate wore on it became clear that Ferraro had indeed benefitted from the format as she connected with each undecided voter who asked her a question and came off as sympathetic, charming, and deeply concerned about the issues facing average Americans. Meanwhile Dole was awkward at times and at one point became flustered when a voter pushed him on a question about benefitting donors, saying that such charges were “completely bogus” and calling them “lies from the Ferraro campaign” as he appeared visually angered and said he “didn’t appreciate such questions”. Dole always had a quick temper but had largely kept it in private, his sudden outburst was uncharacteristic but nevertheless damaging as he appeared to be unable to control his own anger. Even as he apologized he would not be able to recover from this moment for the rest of the debate. Ferraro was declared the winner by the media and polls taken of viewers afterward and the race was once again neck-and-neck and doubts emerged about Dole’s temperament to be president. His campaign spinned it as Dole having a rough day and that this was an “extremely unusual occurrence” but many still didn’t buy it.

For Ferraro this was a godsend as new life was breathed into her campaign. She pressed on with her message of being on the side of regular Americans and stormed through crucial swing states: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, California. She even stopped off in South Dakota and Montana, states ignored by presidential candidates in the past but which had suddenly become competitive because of backlash from the farming crisis and continued struggles by farmers even with relief from the federal government. Ferraro went everywhere she could in these crucial states and others continuing to bring in massive crowds. She stuck to the issues, to her message of bringing change, to her belief in opening doors of opportunity, and to fighting for the people forgotten by the Reagan administration. She also continued to attack Bob Dole as being a “typical Washington politician” and being on the side of “special interests and donors, not the American people,” forcefully promising to pass campaign finance reform within the first year of her presidency. However, despite all of her campaigning there was still doubt in many corners that a woman could be president. Indeed, Ferraro’s appearance and voice continued to be scrutinized in newspapers and on network news for being too “unprofessional” in the case of her wardrobe or too “unauthoritative” when it came to her voice. Her husband’s finances also continued to be mentioned on an off in attacks from Republicans, one issue they felt they could hit her on without being accused of sexism. Even President Reagan joked that her husband “could even be in league with Don Corleone for all we know.” These continued to weigh on her campaign, as did the repudiations by Catholic bishops of her pro-choice stance that once again reared its head as it had in 1984. Ferraro brushed these off and soldiered on, then the sky fell on the Dole campaign.

An article from the Washington Post burst onto the scene on October 17 alleging that Dole had an affair with a Washington secretary, Meredith Roberts, from 1968 to 1972 while he was married to his first wife Phyllis Holden. The report included quotes from Roberts confirming the affair and saying that she thought Dole “wasn’t a bad man but can’t claim to stand for traditional values.” All hell broke loose afterwards as other newspapers, magazines, and even network news jumped on the story. Dole’s campaign was in a state of panic, with Dole himself neither denying nor confirming the affair but lambasting the media for “reporting such sleazy stories that deserve no place in a presidential campaign” and saying that journalism in America “had sunk to a new low.” The story, however, refused to go away. Ferraro said it was “extremely disheartening that the media would continue to intrude upon the personal lives of candidates and their family members” but that Sen. Dole “ought to go out there and provide the American people with the answers they deserve.” Newsweek published an interview with Roberts containing details of Dole’s failing marriage and his “yearning for love” in that trying time. Some Democrats called him hypocritical and said that Dole “couldn’t attack the finances of Ferraro’s husband and claim to have more integrity then her….when he wasn’t even faithful to his first wife.” Pat Robertson accused the media of being “a bunch of liberal hacks trying to find anything they can about Sen. Dole” but also saying that “God would pass judgment on Sen. Dole for his sins, as he does for everyone” and that ultimately Dole would be “forgiven for any transgressions he has committed in the past.” That answer didn’t satisfy some evangelical Christians, though, who had deep concerns about Sen. Dole’s character and moral authority even as many continued to oppose Ferraro because of her pro-choice stance on abortion even if she seemed to have more family values than Dole. Pressure mounted on Dole from Republican leaders to address the story head on as his poll numbers plunged and many voters moved into the undecided column or over to Ferraro. Finally after four days he agreed to appear on 60 Minutes on October 23 with his wife to put the story to rest once-and-for-all.

The interview did not go as well as Dole or his campaign would have hoped. While he confirmed the story and said that he hoped the American people would be able to forgive him and showed a tender side that many Americans hadn’t seen, he also lambasted the media again for “putting the private lives of politicians ahead of issues facing our country” while struggling to answer questions as to why he still could claim to be a defender of traditional, family values despite his own affair. His decline in the polls stabilized and he saw a small uptick in support but Ferraro still led by four to five points as the campaign headed into its last two weeks. Dole got back on the campaign trail trying to regain momentum and launch back into contention but the outlook was grim for his campaign. Polls had him losing in California, Pennsylvania, and Illinois by high single digits – all key states that would determine the outcome of the election. He was even struggling in places like Florida, Maine, and Colorado which had all been reliable Republican-leaning states in the past few elections with the exception of Carter’s victory in Florida in 1976 driven by his broad appeal to Southerners. Undecided voters were breaking toward Ferraro, many turned off by Dole’s scandal and a sense that a woman was needed to clean up Washington and break up the old boys club it had long been. Others believed that it was just time for change after eight years of Reagan and that Ferraro truly cared about helping out those still struggling or hoping to give their children a better future. It was difficult for the party in power to hold onto the presidency for a third term, even in a time of peace and prosperity, and that was pushing against Dole’s chances in addition to the controversies surrounding Robertson and his sex scandal. He would need incredible luck if he was to pull off a victory. Fortunately for him he was thrown a lifeline a week before the election.

On November 1 a grand jury in Queens indicted Ferraro’s husband, John Zaccaro, on charges of bribery related to construction permits for a housing complex in Queens in 1983 that was allegedly being financed by members of the Mafia. The story immediately exploded and was splashed on headlines across the country. John Zaccaro declined to comment on the charges while Ferraro said that she “could not speak about anything related to this indictment” and that it would “not have any effect on her ability to hold the office of president or to discharge its duties” and that she had “great respect for the American justice system” as a former prosecutor for Queens County. She also said that her husband was a good man and that these charges wouldn’t have been brought “if I wasn’t a candidate for President of the United States.” This did little to satisfy critics as question swirled once again as to whether Ferraro’s husband engaged in unethical business practices that she covered up or that he had ties to the Mafia. Dole charged that Ferraro “can’t be trusted not to pardon her husband for any crimes he may have committed” and called Ferraro a hypocrite for “promising to bring integrity to the White House when her husband is under investigation for corruption.” Media coverage of the indictment dominated the final week of the campaign, despite efforts by Ferraro to focus once again on Dole’s choice of Robertson as his running mate and his sex scandal. Polls taken at the end of the week showed the race as a dead heat once again, with some showing Ferraro up by 3-4 points while others showed Dole up by 3-4 points and some even showed both of them tied. Ferraro’s lead had evaporated as Dole gained newfound momentum and the hopes of his campaign were revived.

In the final 72 hours of the campaign both candidates began their final push through the crucial states of the election. Ferraro barnstormed through New Jersey, Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, South Dakota, and California in these final three days of the campaign. Dole followed hot on her heels in New Jersey, Ohio, Michigan, and California while also stopping off in Pennsylvania and Connecticut. The stakes could not be higher in what promised to be the closest election in 28 years and neither Dole nor Ferraro were taking any chances. The presidency was within each’s grasps in a campaign that had been one of the most negative yet in modern history and that had many ups and downs along the way. Despite the historic candidacy of Ferraro, the first woman to head a major party ticket, pollsters were pointing to historically low turnout driven by disgust toward the negative campaign and continued disillusionment with government that had begun with Vietnam and Watergate. This belied the enthusiastic crowds that each candidate was met with in this final stretch of the campaign, even as Ferraro’s remained larger. One pundit would quip the day before the election, “the next president is going to enter office plagued by scandal and seeking to unite a nation worn down by a bitter and negative campaign,” an unenviable position for anyone to be in. As each campaign limped into Election Day the final poll showed the race tied with Ferraro and Dole each at 49%. It was now up to the American people to make their choice as the country faced a historic decision that had the potential to reverberate not only across America but also the entire world.

 

[Sombergen]

Chapter 14: Decision ’88 (Part 1)

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7:00pm EST​

Announcer: “From the Decision ’88 election headquarters in New York it’s NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokaw.”

Tom Brokaw: “Good evening, I’m here with our full team: Connie Chung, John Chancellor, and Garrick Utley and before this night turns to day the United States will have a new president-elect and potentially its first woman president after one of the longest and most bitterly contested elections of the 20th century. All national polls in the closing days of the campaign have indicated a close race between Senator Dole and Geraldine Ferraro and both of them are convinced that they can pull off a victory tonight after three days of non-stop campaigning in key states across the country. We’ll see in a few hours or potentially even longer which of them will be proven correct. We would like to remind you that the polls are still open in most states and that we will not project the results in a state until the polls in that state are closed.

Now the polls are closed in Indiana and we can make our first projection of the night.”

Tom Brokaw: “As expected, NBC News can now project that Senator Bob Dole will be the winner in Indiana, 12 Electoral Votes. That means that on our big NBC election map….”

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Tom Brokaw: “…the state of Indiana goes blue. Blue will be the color for Senator Dole tonight.”

Tom Brokaw: “We can also project now an important win for Senator Dole in the state of Kentucky. NBC News can project that the 9 Electoral Votes of Kentucky will go to Senator Bob Dole. Again on our map….”

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Tom Brokaw: “… tonight that means the state of Kentucky will be colored blue. Red will be the color for Geraldine Ferraro when her states begin to come in. And if we look at the Electoral Votes totals as they stand right now...”

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Tom Brokaw: "...we can see that Senator Dole currently has 21 Electoral Votes while Geraldine Ferraro has none but I will remind you that it is still extremely early in the night."

7:12pm EST​

Tom Brokaw: “…and voters are also electing congressmen, senators, and governors tonight. NBC’s Garrick Utley is watching those races closely for us this evening, Garrick.”

Garrick Utley: “Tom, there are no major surprises expected in House races tonight as Democrats have easy control there, with 262 seats to 173 seats for the Republicans and it’s expected to stay more or less in that range when the votes are finally counted tonight. In the Senate the Democrats appear to be narrow favorites to hold on to control with 55 seats to the Republicans 45 as the only Democratic seats in danger of flipping are those in New Jersey, Wisconsin, Mississippi, and Montana which would not be enough for Republicans to regain control of the Senate even if they won every one of them.”

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“There are also 12 governor’s races tonight across the country as Democrats currently hold 28 state houses with the Republicans holding 22. One closely watched race is in the state of Indiana where Evan Bayh, son of former Democratic Senator Birch Bayh, is favored to win a Republican seat. We will be following this race and others in the governors’ contests closely this evening. In all of these races we will of course not only be looking at who the winners and losers are but whether the presidential candidates have helped or hurt their party’s candidates in downballot races. It’s called coattails, Tom.”

Tom Brokaw: “Thanks so much, Garry. And in forty of the fifty states today voters were deciding a host of referendums…..”

7:24pm EST​

Tom Brokaw: “We are now ready to make two more projections in key southern states that are crucial to the Dole campaign’s strategy for victory tonight which rests on holding on to the increasingly Republican South which President Reagan swept in both of his victories four and eight years ago.”

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Tom Brokaw: “Not surprisingly, NBC News can project that Sen. Dole will be the winner in the state of Georgia tonight, the home of Fmr. President Jimmy Carter, with its 12 Electoral Votes going into his column.”

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Tom Brokaw: “On our map the state of Georgia of course lights up blue for Sen. Dole.”

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Tom Brokaw: “We can also project that Sen. Dole will be the winner in South Carolina, with its 8 Electoral Votes going to Sen. Dole. Yet another southern state that was expected to go his way has indeed come through for Bob Dole, with the polls still open in many more.”

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Tom Brokaw: “As South Carolina lights up blue on our map I’d like to remind everyone that 270 Electoral Votes are needed to be elected president and so far…”

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Tom Brokaw: “…as we can see from these updated totals Sen. Dole has added 20 more Electoral Votes to his total and is currently ahead with 41 Electoral Votes while Geraldine Ferraro still has none. However, many of the states in the Northeast and Midwest that have been central to her campaign strategy still have their polls open so it’s still too early to get an idea of how the election is shaping up.”

7:29pm EST​

Tom Brokaw: “…and now it’s over to Garrick Utley for a projection in the Senate race in the state of Virginia.”

Garrick Utley: “As expected Fmr. Governor Chuck Robb proved too popular with Virginians for his little known and underfunded opponent Maurice Dawkins, a black minister who was the only Republican to step forward to take on Chuck Robb after he announced his entrance into the race, to overcome in this race."

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Garrick Utley: "We can project that Chuck Robb will indeed be the next Senator from Virginia and his victory marks the first pickup of the night for Democrats in the United States Senate but one that had been expected for months after the incumbent Sen. Paul Trible, a Republican, announced his retirement early last year. Mr. Robb is not the only current or former Governor running for a seat in the Senate this evening but he is the first to claim victory”

7:37pm EST​

Tom Brokaw: “We can now make another projection in the race for president, this time up in New England in the traditionally Republican state of New Hampshire.”

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Tom Brokaw: “NBC News can project that Sen. Bob Dole will be the winner of New Hampshire and its 4 Electoral Votes. New Hampshire has gone Republican in every election except one since the end of World War II and that was in 1964 when President Lyndon Johnson swept every state outside of the Deep South and Barry Goldwater’s home state of Arizona."

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Tom Brokaw: "As New Hampshire lights up blue for Sen. Dole I should mention that it is one of the few states in the country that does not have an income tax and, indeed, it has some of the lowest taxes in the country so it seems that Bob Dole’s pledge not to raise taxes went down well with voters in the Granite State.

I’ll now turn it over to NBC’s Connie Chung for some results from our poll of nearly 60,000 voters by the end of the night as they left their polling places, Connie.”

Connie Chung: “One of the points often talked about by the Ferraro campaign has been winning over suburban voters to her side despite the suburbs being one of the typical strongholds of support for the Republican Party. Let us not forget that suburban voters have backed President Reagan overwhelmingly in the past two elections and that it was these same voters who revolted over taxes in the mid-to-late 1970s and have been supportive of President Reagan’s tax cuts and efforts to reduce the government’s role in many areas of public policy. However, they are by far not a homogenous group with everything from the blue-collar suburbs outside of cities like Chicago and Detroit to professional, white-collar suburbs outside of cities like Atlanta, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., and San Francisco. And what we are seeing from suburban voters, particularly women, are concerns about education, crime, the environment, and family values. As we look at the numbers…”

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Connie Chung: “…it’s clear that some suburban voters have been responsive to Gerry Ferraro’s history as a prosecutor and her tough on crime stance, her promises to improve education and hold schools accountable, and her compassionate image while they have been turned off by Pat Robertson’s extremism and Sen. Dole’s affair twenty years ago. We’ve been hearing from strategists with the Ferraro campaign that they have been hoping to get into the high 40s when it came to support from suburban voters if she were to be in a good position to win the election and if these numbers are to be believed at least so far tonight that has been the case.”

7:42pm EST​

Tom Brokaw: “Garrick Utley has another result for us in one of the key Senate races up for grabs tonight. Garrick.”

Garrick Utley: “Yes, Tom, this one is out of Florida where popular Fmr. Governor Reubin Askew is up against conservative Congressman Connie Mack III to take the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Lawton Chiles who has declined to seek a third term in the United States Senate. While Connie Mack has been undeterred in his determination to win this seat, having run ads trying to paint Reubin Askew as a liberal akin to Geraldine Ferraro, strategists on both sides of the aisle have widely acknowledged that Askew is perhaps one of the best candidates the Democrats could have put up in this race and that these attacks have done little to hurt him among Florida voters. Even as there were worries in the spring that he might drop out of the race because of disgust over how campaigns in this country are being financed, there’s no doubt that Askew, considered to be one of the greatest governors that Florida has had this century, has been in a strong position to hold this seat for the Democrats as has been borne out in polls taken of the race this fall. As such, I don’t think this result should come as much of a surprise to any of us who’ve been watching this race.”

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Garrick Utley: “We can project that Fmr. Governor Reubin Askew will be the next United States Senator from Florida, defeating Rep. Connie Mack III in the race to replace Sen. Lawton Chiles. While there were concerns that the influx of new residents in the state over the past decade would dampen his ability to capitalize on his record as Governor, so far it appears that has not stopped him from winning the state and he may also be helped by Gerry Ferraro’s stronger than expected performance in the state so far tonight.”

Tom Brokaw: “Thank you, Garrick. We’ll return to more coverage of Decision ’88 after the commercial break.”

7:50pm EST​

Tom Brokaw: “We can now make a late projection in another key southern state tonight that has proven to be a bedrock of support for the Republican Party for the past twenty years since it voted for Richard Nixon for president in 1968. Yes, I’m talking about the state of Virginia…”

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Tom Brokaw: “…where we can project that Sen. Dole will be the winner of the state and its 12 Electoral Votes. Virginia was the only southern state not to vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and tonight it has continued to be a reliable state for Republicans.”

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Tom Brokaw: “Virginia lights up as blue on our map while Geraldine Ferraro has yet to win a state but when she does they will light up red. Now if we look at the most up-to-date Electoral Vote totals….”

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Tom Brokaw: “…we can see that Sen. Dole is still in the lead and less than 220 Electoral Votes away from the magic number of 270, still a long ways to go tonight which is expected to shape up to be a close race and may keep us all up long into the wee hours of the morning.

John Chancellor, what do you make of the results that have come in so far?”

John Chancellor: “Well, Tom, it’s really too early to say much about the states that have come in so far. All of them are solidly Republican or have been trending Republican over the past few elections and we’d expect Sen. Dole to win them if this indeed turns out to be a close race with Geraldine Ferraro as the polls have indicated. I think it is interesting how strong Ferraro is performing in a state Dole won like Kentucky, where she currently trails by slightly less than eight points with over two-thirds of the votes counted. While this state currently has a Republican governor it still has some Democratic DNA in its veins as both of its current U.S. Senators are currently Democrats as is a majority of its House delegation so this could be a sign that some Reagan Democrats are coming back to the party after eight years of the Reagan presidency, although there’s no hard data to back this up at this point.”

Tom Brokaw: “Yes, it will be interesting to see how Reagan Democrats have voted in this election and we’re sure to hear something from Connie about them as the night progresses.

Now we’ll hand it over to our local affiliates and will return at the top of the hour as polls close in key states across the industrial Midwest and the South.”