TR wins in 1912

TR would have kept us out

Not only would we likely not have gotten into the war in 1914, we probably wouldn't have gotten into the war at all. President Wilson sought to keep us out of the war by deterrence; deterrence through weakness, backed by apparently empty threats. Wilson threatened that we would get into the war if the Germans went the unlimited submarine warfare (USW) route. This meant that once Germany resorted USW the United states was faced with a choice between looking weak and going to war. (Of course the Zimmerman letter didn't help.) Now faced on one hand with what appeared to be a failing war effort and a shot of victory by sea (or at leased knocking the Brits out of the war), and on the other hand with threats coming from many thousans of miles away by a nation with only around 125,000 soldiers in an ill-trained, ill-equipped army, Germany chose to deal with a possible solution to the far more certain problems, the enemies on hand.

TR espoused greatly increasing the size of the army to prepare for conflict. Wilson disagreed, even turning down an offer by Roosevelt to raise and train a unit of volunteers. Had TR won in 1912, whether he won again in 1916 or not a large American army would have served to alter German thought processes as to what was in their best interests, and likely would have discouraged them from bringing us into the war.

I won't get into the whole WW1 ends sooner and more equitably, no embittered, future fascist Germany, no USSR, no WW2 killing 52 million people, and no cold war leading to policies that often supported bad people in the middle east leading to the large muslim extremist terrorist movement of today thing.
 
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Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Its an interesting idea - being more willing to enter the war means that the other side lays off and the USA doesn't get involved

The problem is that this may overlook the dynamics within the political-military leadership within Germany. Their main calculation vis-a-vis the USA was that they could not make an impact any time soon. Maybe TR makes them realise that they COULD make an impact...but soon ? If Germany believes USW will win the war in 1915 will they lay off ?

Grey Wolf
 
Germany originally did lay off of Unlimited Submarine Warfare to keep America out. Wilson at some point did make the threat of US involvement if Germany resorted to USW. It was after Wilson's reelection that Germany decided that their situation was bad enough that they should return to USW. The danger they saw themselves in was great enough, and the risk that America would enter the war and could actually make an impact in time seemed remote enough that they returned to
Unlimited Submarine Warfare.

What I'm saying is that if TR had won in 1912, by the time the Germans had decided to return to USW in 1917 in the OTL, in the ATL they would have had to consider an America that could have made an immediate impact on the war.

Of course this makes many assumptions. One is that TR would not have gotten us into the war well before that time. He was originally opposed to intervention, but changed his mind later on. However, we can not assume that the ATL President Roosevelt would have changed his mind just because the OTL private citizen did.

Here's an ironic possibility that could have kept us out.

TR begins to build up the army, at the latest immediately following the outbreak of war. At this time TR is somewhat sympathetic to Germany's reasons for war (In the OTL he referred to it as "The iron will of necessity"), and does not try to get the US involved.

Seeing the large buildup of the American Army by late 1915 both sides try to avoid offending the United States, both in hopes of getting the U.S. to ally, and out of fear of the U.S. allying with the other side. Both sides therefore succeed to a greater extent at not angering the American people than either side did in the OTL. Perhaps Roosevelt still changes his mind, deciding in favor of an "uplifting" war, but the American people, having been provoked less in the ATL, will not support this. IF TR pushes too hard for war, he may even loose the election in 1916. (This may well be greatly underestimating TR's charisma, but one must also not underestimate America's inherent passifism and isolationism).
 
Well, the Germans might have gone for broke in 1917 like they did in 1918 if Theodore Roosevelt wins a fourth term in 1916. The resumption of USW coupled with an offensive on the Western Front would have been the general plan. Allied offensives on the Eastern Front would have dominated as the Germans plan for their offensive in the middle part of 1917.

By the time the German offensive is launched, Russia is falling apart at the seams, war exists between Germany and the US and the French Army mutinies! The Germans achieve breakthrough and reach Paris. France panics and surrenders just as the German army is a few kilometers from the city, despite calls to relocate the government to Bordeaux and continue the fight. With Russia on the verge of revolution, the French surrender is the coup de grace of the continental war.
 
I wonder if there would have been a 1914 war. IIRC both the Kaiser and the Czar ignored Wilson's calls for Negoatiation, as the US was to uninvolved in World affairs to influence events.

If TR had Speeded up the US rearming and Milatry Buildup, Both Sides May have taken The US More Seriously.
 
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