TR wins as a progressives, what happens to the party system

If Theodore Roosevelt managed to win in1912 would the Republican party have ceased to exist and the Democrats become conservatives.

If not what would have occured?
 
I agree that Roosevelt would bring the Progressive and Republican parties together probably under the Republican name. The party would be more left than the post 1912 Republican party was. I think TR would have stood down in 1916. I think his choice would have been Charles Fairbanks.

Policy wise I think TR would have been more aggressive in response to the U boat campaign. Domestically he would have done much the same as Wilson other than in race relations where TR would have side stepped segregation in DC.
 
I think TR merges the Progessive Party back into the Republican Party. h He would want Republican support.

I'm not sure. Roosevelt was always somewhat radical; he may take the opportunity to try and ram some crazy stuff through (though he'll be hobbled, of course, by having no support in Congress).

He may try and leverage his power to return to the Republican party as a glorious conqueror? I dunno, there's still the issue of Taft, who's pretty strong in the Republican Party's internal politics, though arguably being president will give Roosevelt something of a trump card.

An interesting idea: the Progressive Party's platform included:
A National Health Service to include all existing government medical agencies.
Social insurance, to provide for the elderly, the unemployed, and the disabled
Limited injunctions in strikes
A minimum wage law for women
An eight hour workday
A federal securities commission
Farm relief
Workers' compensation for work-related injuries
An inheritance tax
A Constitutional amendment to allow a Federal income tax
Women's suffrage
Direct election of Senators
Primary elections for state and federal nominations
The platform also urged states to adopt measures for "direct democracy", including:
The recall election (citizens may remove an elected official before the end of his term)
The referendum (citizens may decide on a law by popular vote)
The initiative (citizens may propose a law by petition and enact it by popular vote)
Judicial recall (when a court declares a law unconstitutional, the citizens may override that ruling by popular vote)
Strict limits and disclosure requirements on political campaign contributions
Registration of lobbyists
Recording and publication of Congressional committee proceedings

Could a successful TR and a more Progressive-leaning Republican party lead to the US getting a little pink around the edges?
 
How could TR possibly have won, though? :(

Scewing up did seem to be a Democrat speciality at that time. Wison could have had a stroke and been unavailable.

They could have ended up with a conservative nobody acceptable to the South inspiring nobody on the 200th ballot (they needed a 2 thirds majority
 

Stolengood

Banned
Scewing up did seem to be a Democrat speciality at that time. Wison could have had a stroke and been unavailable.

They could have ended up with a conservative nobody acceptable to the South inspiring nobody on the 200th ballot (they needed a 2 thirds majority
Hmmmm... Champ Clark? William Jennings Bryan again?
 
How could TR possibly have won, though? :(

Well, the results in the end were

Wilson: 42%
Roosevelt: 27%
Taft: 23%
Debs: 6%

Let's start by saying that Roosevelt manages to come to an agreement with the Socialists, because, frankly, if we look at the Progressive platform, it's pretty Socialist. Now, granted that OTL, Debs hated Roosevelt (he considered him a charlatan, giving lip service to the workers in order to continue the oppression of the bourgeoisie, probably because of the silver spoon placed in Teddy's mouth at birth), but let's say that he somehow manages to convince Debs to join him, so they can rule as father and son or something.

We now have Roosevelt at a respectable 33%. Now, on the other hand, Roosevelt joining up with actual Socialists may frighten some folks away; but on the gripping hand, most of the "scared of socialist" types are already supporting Taft.

Now the question is: how do we make up the remaining percentage points...Can Teddy steal some votes from the Solid South? What about from Taft?

EDIT: With regards to the Dems screwing up; the Democratic lineup at the DNC was Wilson, Champ Clark (Speaker of the House, Missouri), Judson Harmon (Governor, Ohio), Oscar Underwood (House Majority Leader, Alabama), and Thomas Marshall (Governor, Indiana). Clark was actually leading by a good margin until Tammany Hall started to support him, leading Bryan to oppose him on grounds of hating anything associated with what he (rightfully) considered a cesspool of corruption. Wilson, who had been 2nd in all the ballots, almost withdrew his candidacy.

I see the possible Democratic screw-up like this: William Jennings Bryan isn't able to rally enough opposition to Clark in the Convention, and he gets the job. However, Bryan doesn't give up easily, as we all know, and his consistent campaigning against Clark and the corruption of the Democratic Political Machine is enough to swing several percentage points to the Progressive/Socialist ticket; while people who would otherwise vote Dem are likely to vote Republican here instead of the somewhat more extreme Progressives, the fact is that the Grand Old Party isn't that much cleaner than the Democrats, so anyone voting for reasons of corruption might lean to them instead.

There's also the possibility of Wilson withdrawing before Bryan has a chance to back him, as very nearly happened, but that leaves us with Underwood or Harmon, both relatively unremarkable candidates (and thus likely to succeed). Though Underwood was notorious for his opposition to the KKK, but considering that in the OTL DNC, he still received a lot of support from the South, I'm not sure that's enough to alienate him from anyone.
 
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d32123

Banned
Let's start by saying that Roosevelt manages to come to an agreement with the Socialists, because, frankly, if we look at the Progressive platform, it's pretty Socialist. Now, granted that OTL, Debs hated Roosevelt (he considered him a charlatan, giving lip service to the workers in order to continue the oppression of the bourgeoisie, probably because of the silver spoon placed in Teddy's mouth at birth), but let's say that he somehow manages to convince Debs to join him, so they can rule as father and son or something.

ASB Debs would never support Roosevelt, and even if he was working with Debs that would lose him a lot of support as well.
 
We could always have Taft have a heart attack and decide not to run for reasons of health. Along with having Wilson withdraw, could that put TR back in the white house?
 
Let's start by saying that Roosevelt manages to come to an agreement with the Socialists, because, frankly, if we look at the Progressive platform, it's pretty Socialist. Now, granted that OTL, Debs hated Roosevelt (he considered him a charlatan, giving lip service to the workers in order to continue the oppression of the bourgeoisie, probably because of the silver spoon placed in Teddy's mouth at birth), but let's say that he somehow manages to convince Debs to join him, so they can rule as father and son or something.

We now have Roosevelt at a respectable 33%. Now, on the other hand, Roosevelt joining up with actual Socialists may frighten some folks away; but on the gripping hand, most of the "scared of socialist" types are already supporting Taft.

Now the question is: how do we make up the remaining percentage points...Can Teddy steal some votes from the Solid South? What about from Taft?


How on earth can he gain anything from Taft if he is working in alliance with Debs? He's more likely to be losing votes to Taft in that situation.

At the same time, if it looked for one second as though a TR/Debs combination might actually win, you can expect Taft supporters to start switching to the Democrats in order to prevent this. After all, they know that Taft isn't really going to win, so it's just a question of how best to keep these dangerous radicals out..
 
Anything else?


Probably not a lot. It's just such an unlikely PoD.

TR in 1908 is no problem. He just has to change his mind. Ditto for TR in 1920. He just has to live that long. If the changes are great enough (no Bull Moose and no WW1) you can even have a plausible TR in 1916.

But 1912 is much tougher. If TR gets the Republican nomination he can just maybe win in November, though even then it's an uphill fight given how unpopular the GOP is. But in a three-way race forget it. Essentially 1912 is the counterpoint to 1920. The POTUS will be chosen at the Democratic Convention (as in 1920 he'll be chosen at the Republican one) and November is a formality.

In 1904, at the peak of his popularity and facing about the least inspiring Democratic nominee in a generation, who had gained the most grudging of endorsements from party hero Bryan, TR could squeeze Parker only down to 38% - just four points less than Wilson in 1912. And this was at a time when Democratic performance in general was lacklustre. After getting clobbered by McKinley in 1900, they had achieved only a modest recovery in 1902, cutting the Republican plurality in the House from 45 to 29, and in the Senate from 27 to 26.

In contrast, after 1910 they were on a roll, having changed a Republican House plurality of 47 into a Democratic one of 66 (!!) and chopping the GOP's Senate lead from 17 to 7. Their morale was high, and their voters had no reason to vote against Wilson (or Clark, or Bryan, or even the less exciting Harmon, Marshall or Underwood) just because Taft had allegedly robbed TR of the Republican nomination. So TR is unlikely to sqeeze the Democratic vote as much as he did eight years before, if indeed he can squeeze it at all.

Sorry, but a Progressive win in 1912 just isn't going to happen. The votes simply aren't there.
 
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