Great idea for a TL, will keep close watch on this.
I wonder if the butterflies affect the democratic convention? I imagine Wilson is still the nominee-and he'd lose to TR of course-but you never know.
Wilson probably still gets it. He has a respectable progressive record as Governor of NJ, but at trhe same time is a very respectable, "establishement" type of figure who can attract unhappy Taftites more easily than an old Bryan man like Champ Clark.
As regards November, a TR victory is possible but not assured. In CA and SD, where Taft was not on the ballot, TR did far less well than Taft in 1908. Then, Taft smashed Bryan 55-33 in CA, but TR and Wilson virtually tied at just under 42% each. In SD, TR scored a comfortable 51-42, yet four years earlier Taft had won 59-35. Swings of this magnitude, if repeated nationally, would have easily elected Wilson even in a straight fight with TR.
In fact, it probably wouldn't be as bad as that. TR would spend the next five months doing his best to pull the Republicans together, seeking to placate the Taft men without losing the Progressives. All the same, it will be a difficult tightrope act. Wilson can certainly run TR close, and might even win.