Toulouse, France

Could it have actually become a separate kingdom? WI: The anti-Cathar movement had not been as successful?
 
It would not have been its own separate kingdom. Only the Popes can legitimise a new kingdom this late in the Middle Ages. I can't think of one compelling reasons why the Popes would make the Count of Toulouse a king.

The Languedoc had many competing feudal claims in terms of overlordship. Its de facto independence was not going to last forever. By the early 1500s at the latest, it's going to become part of some other country.

France, perhaps, had the best claim overall and made sure it was enforced by the end of the crusades. It was not however the only claimant. Long term makes France the most likely victor.

If King Peter II of Aragon had survived the Battle of Muret in 1213, or even defeated the crusaders, it's entirely possible that Toulouse might have eventually become incorporated into Aragon.
 
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