Torch Delayed One Month

In this time line: Lets say American shipping losses are higher OR american liaisons are unluckily arrested visiting French North Africa or an American division is diverted to the mid east, or a Pacific setback or for whatever reason Torch is delayed 1 month to December 8th.

Things have changed vs OTL:

a) Soviet counter attack and encirclement at Stalingrad has happened.
b) British have liberated Benghazi
c) Allies have won Guadalcanal Naval battles

What do this mean:
a) Could there be no French resistance? (obvious Axis is losing)
b) Could French fleet at Toulon try to sail to join Allies?
c) Does having Darlan back in France change things?
c) Heavily engaged elsewhere could Axis just evacuate North Africa and not try.
d) Could the Germans rescue Stalingrad? (1st SS Panzer could be sent east instead of occupying Southern France)
 
In this time line: Lets say American shipping losses are higher OR american liaisons are unluckily arrested visiting French North Africa or an American division is diverted to the mid east, or a Pacific setback or for whatever reason Torch is delayed 1 month to December 8th.

Things have changed vs OTL:

a) Soviet counter attack and encirclement at Stalingrad has happened.
b) British have liberated Benghazi
c) Allies have won Guadalcanal Naval battles

What do this mean:
a) Could there be no French resistance? (obvious Axis is losing)

Perhaps, but more important are Allied contacts with Darlan & bringing him over to support the invasion from the start.

b) Could French fleet at Toulon try to sail to join Allies?

As I understand they were not allowed to retain fuel in the ships bunkers. Small amounts were rationed out for housekeeping & a few training patrols. The Germans made sure the fleet could not move without their cooperation.

c) Does having Darlan back in France change things?

Makes this worse for the Allies. He was one of few senior military officers who Petain trusted to take the colonies over to the Allies. The other pro Allied generals and admirals were being slowly sidelined by collaborator leaders such as Laval.

c) Heavily engaged elsewhere could Axis just evacuate North Africa and not try.

Possible. It was discussed, but the ever optimistic Kesselring effectively argued for attempting a counterblow. While the commitment to a continued lodgment and counter blow in Tunisia did delay the Allies some six months it also lost the Axis 180,000+ captured and the equipment for four armored divisions, plus the artillery, and Luftwaffe ground echelon men and material.

d) Could the Germans rescue Stalingrad? (1st SS Panzer could be sent east instead of occupying Southern France)

I doubt one partially trained Pz Div would make a difference. They had only converted to a armored division a few months earlier, had taken on a mass of young replacements just out of basic training, and were only partially equipped. The extra month or so in France was needed to get them up to speed as a armored unit. They had good infantry skills in their east front veterans, but would have been clumsier as a combined arms division, and as tactical tank operators. In late october they deployed to their anti invasion position in response to the TORCH forces departing the UK, and then rehearsed some anti invasion exercises. Op ANTON came imeadiatly after. Both responses were good impromptu training for the division and regiment staff.
 
This delay has a small butterfly effect in the North Atlantic. ASW ships used for the TORCH operation are still fighting subs on the route to the UK for a few more weeks, so a few more submarines sunk and a few less cargo ships.
 
this is a little far into the weeds for me, but could they have started an effective airlift to Stalingrad with more time and aircraft? and if it were succeeding (to extent practicable) how would that affect the calculus to withdraw to Italy vs. reinforce N. Africa?
 
this is a little far into the weeds for me, but could they have started an effective airlift to Stalingrad with more time and aircraft? and if it were succeeding (to extent practicable) ...

No, weather & airfield capacity, getting the supplies to the airfields, and Red Army attacks were also limits. They were not getting half the minimum requirement in during the peak delivery week. This probably drags out the battle another week, & loses the German air transport capacity entirely in the east, vs half there and losing half in the Med.
 
Of course, a delayed TORCH landing could have butterfly effects. Paulus, for example, did not respond to the Romanian request for support after they had broke a major Soviet attempt to force the Don in October; had he done so instead of seeking to further reduce Stalingrad, it would've likely saved his Army.
 
Top