top two means to achieve a better-off Argentina

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

Alvear again(1934-1940). And then Tamborini(1940-1946). And then Sabattini(1946-1952). And then butterflies.
About the coups, it's esential to have a strong president who is not alienated to everyone with power. Alvear and Ortiz both had friends in the elite. So the elite won't be a problem for them. And without the cooperation with the elite, the military won't have a precedent of participating in a coup and would stay as democratic as it was.

Without a coup, Radicals will dominate Argentine politics and maybe a one point (would sprinter to two factions between Yrigoyenistas and Antiperonalistas) or the Antiperonalistas will absorb to the National Democratic Party:

Had Hipolito Irigoyen never runs, the list of Presidents might be:

• 12 October 1928 - 12 October 1934 - Roberto Ortiz (or Leopoldo Melo)
• 12 October 1934 - 12 October 1940 - Marcelo Torcuato de Alvear (or Roberto Oritz)
• 12 October 1940 - 12 October 1946 - Jose Tamborini (or Tomas Le Breton)
• 12 October 1946 - 12 October 1952 - Amadeo Sabattini (or Robustiano Patron Costas)
• 12 October 1952 - 12 October 1958 - Ricardo Balbin (or Amadeo Sabattini)
• 12 October 1958 - 12 October 1964 - Arturo Frondizi (or Jose Maria Guido)
• 12 October 1964 - 12 October 1970 - Arturo Illa (or Arturo Frondizi)
• 12 October 1970 - 12 October 1976 - Carlos Contin (or Alvaro Alsogaray)
• 12 October 1976 - 12 October 1982 - Raul Alfonsin (or Roberto Alemann)
• 12 October 1982 - 12 October 1988 - Alvaro Alsogaray (or Raul Alfonsin)
• 12 October 1988 - 12 October 1994 - Fernando de la Rua (or Domingo Cavallo)
• 12 October 1994 - 12 October 2000 - Rodolfo Terragno (or Eduardo Duhalde)
• 12 October 2000 - 12 October 2006 - Jose Manuel de la Sota (or Angel Rozas)
• 12 October 2006 - 12 October 2012 - Ricardo Lopez Murphy (or Carlos Alvarez)

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

Alicia can't hope for anything better than governor of Santa Cruz. Scioli is not kirchnerist, is an ally of them. Moyano won't run for president, God was isn't so cruel

Well, in a scenario where Cristina decides not to run, would Eduardo Duhalde return the presidency since Ricardo Alfonsin is a lackluster candidate?

 

[Dan1988]

Could you people from south America name some good books to read on south American History . As a citizen of the US I hate to say it I only read English .

Well, I don't know if it's already mentioned but David Rock's history of Argentina is excellent (if somewhat dated, as it only covers up to the 1980s) and I highly recommend it to anyone with an interest in Argentine history. I know, because I have consulted it before for research on any Argentina-related TLs or for anything related to Argentina that I want to use for a TL. The title is Argentina 1516-1987: From Spanish Colonialism to Alfonsín.

Another book, for Latin America in general, is the college textbook Latin America: Its Problems and Its Promise, which gives a comprehensive overview of everything pertaining to Latin American history. There are several editions of this textbook, the most recent being the 5th edition which was published last year. Me, I've used the 4th edition (paperback) which was published in 2005, which is also another source I use for Latin American TLs.

 

[Petete123123]

Well, in a scenario where Cristina decides not to run, would Eduardo Duhalde return the presidency since Ricardo Alfonsin is a lackluster candidate?

Without a coup, Radicals will dominate Argentine politics and maybe a one point (by 1950s I think would sprinter to two factions):

Had Hipolito Irigoyen never runs, the list of Presidents might be:

• 12 October 1928 - 12 October 1934 - Roberto Ortiz
• 12 October 1934 - 12 October 1940 - Marcelo Torcuato de Alvear
• 12 October 1940 - 12 October 1946 - Jose Tamborini
• 12 October 1946 - 12 October 1952 - Amadeo Sabatini
• 12 October 1952 - 12 October 1958 - Ricardo Balbin
• 12 October 1958 - 12 October 1964 - Arturo Frondizi
• 12 October 1964 - 12 October 1970 - Arturo Illa
• 12 October 1970 - 12 October 1976 - Carlos Contin
• 12 October 1976 - 12 October 1982 - Raul Alfonsin
• 12 October 1982 - 12 October 1988 - Alvaro Alsogaray
• 12 October 1988 - 12 October 1994 - Fernando de la Rua
• 12 October 1994 - 12 October 2000 - Rodolfo Terragno
• 12 October 2000 - 12 October 2006 - Jose Manuel de la Sota
• 12 October 2006 - 12 October 2012 - Ricardo Lopez Murphy

Well, I don't know if it's already mentioned but David Rock's history of Argentina is excellent (if somewhat dated, as it only covers up to the 1980s) and I highly recommend it to anyone with an interest in Argentine history. I know, because I have consulted it before for research on any Argentina-related TLs or for anything related to Argentina that I want to use for a TL. The title is Argentina 1516-1987: From Spanish Colonialism to Alfonsín.

Another book, for Latin America in general, is the college textbook Latin America: Its Problems and Its Promise, which gives a comprehensive overview of everything pertaining to Latin American history. There are several editions of this textbook, the most recent being the 5th edition which was published last year. Me, I've used the 4th edition (paperback) which was published in 2005, which is also another source I use for Latin American TLs.

I could name many, but all in Spanish

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

It depends on who gets it.

Let say Antonio Cafiero gets the nomination instead of Menem. I curious why Menem got the nomination in spite of being from La Rioja while Cafiero was the second most powerful person (Governor of Buenos Aires Province)

Something will have to be done with his neoliberal policies

Let say Carlos Ruckauf was the candidate had Menem never seeks reelection.

I don't know how possible it would be just to butterfly crisis

Without Mexican, Asian or Russian crisis, Argentina would continue to its neoliberal economic policies and might be a developed country by now.

Nestor did very good in some areas, and I doubt if Reutemann would have done as good, but at least he won't dominate as much the politics of the country.

I curious why Reutemann or de la Sota never runs for the presidency in 2003?

 

[Admiral Brown]

I curious why Reutemann or de la Sota never runs for the presidency in 2003?

De la Sota wasn't doing well in the polls, so he backed down, or Duhalde told him to back down.

Reutemann? that's a real mistery. His only explanation was "I saw something I didn't like". He's not explained it till this day.

 

[Dan1988]

Without Mexican, Asian or Russian crisis, Argentina would continue to its neoliberal economic policies and might be a developed country by now.

Or maybe Argentina decides to do a very different approach with its currency board - say, making it more of an orthodox currency board than in OTL. Remember that it was the Argentine Currency Board itself that was one of the big problems with the financial crisis (as well as pegging the peso to the USD - when most of Argentina's markets were in Latin America or Europe, making the CHF more suitable for a currency board peg than the USD). What the Argentine Currency Board should have done was peg the peso (or nuevo austral ) to the Swiss franc (CHF) or a currency basket (consisting of mainly European currencies [probably even shadowing the European Currency Unit, to a degree], plus the Brazilian real and both Mexican, Uruguayan, and Chilean pesos) with an adjustable exchange rate similar to Hong Kong's arrangement with the US dollar and leave it like that. That would make Argentina's currency board arrangement more in line with its trading partners.

Oh, and at least move the neoliberal policies towards the direction of a German-style social market economy with flexicurity (though encouraging savings could probably work) and comprehensive health care reform, probably taking Costa Rica (or even the modern-day American VA system - I'm not joking) as a model but in a more federal form and by learning from the lessons of Costa Rica's model.

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

De la Sota wasn't doing well in the polls, so he backed down, or Duhalde told him to back down.

As what I know about de la Sota's aborted candidacy, he wanted that his running mate would be Carlos Menem's former first wife. He could win the election anyway like what Kirchner do to Menem.

Reutemann? that's a real mistery. His only explanation was "I saw something I didn't like". He's not explained it till this day.

Reutemann was too reserved and afraid. Had Nestor Kirchner never runs, who would be the candidate of Duhalde?

Another question, would Cristina run for this coming election?

 

[yofie]

Without a coup, Radicals will dominate Argentine politics and maybe a one point (would sprinter to two factions between Yrigoyenistas and Antiperonalistas) or the Antiperonalistas will absorb to the National Democratic Party:

Had Hipolito Irigoyen never runs, the list of Presidents might be:

• 12 October 1928 - 12 October 1934 - Roberto Ortiz (or Leopoldo Melo)
• 12 October 1934 - 12 October 1940 - Marcelo Torcuato de Alvear (or Roberto Oritz)
• 12 October 1940 - 12 October 1946 - Jose Tamborini (or Tomas Le Breton)
• 12 October 1946 - 12 October 1952 - Amadeo Sabattini (or Robustiano Patron Costas)
• 12 October 1952 - 12 October 1958 - Ricardo Balbin (or Amadeo Sabattini)
• 12 October 1958 - 12 October 1964 - Arturo Frondizi (or Jose Maria Guido)
• 12 October 1964 - 12 October 1970 - Arturo Illa (or Arturo Frondizi)
• 12 October 1970 - 12 October 1976 - Carlos Contin (or Alvaro Alsogaray)
• 12 October 1976 - 12 October 1982 - Raul Alfonsin (or Roberto Alemann)
• 12 October 1982 - 12 October 1988 - Alvaro Alsogaray (or Raul Alfonsin)
• 12 October 1988 - 12 October 1994 - Fernando de la Rua (or Domingo Cavallo)
• 12 October 1994 - 12 October 2000 - Rodolfo Terragno (or Eduardo Duhalde)
• 12 October 2000 - 12 October 2006 - Jose Manuel de la Sota (or Angel Rozas)
• 12 October 2006 - 12 October 2012 - Ricardo Lopez Murphy (or Carlos Alvarez)

The problem, I've realized, with Ortiz or Melo being the president of Argentina from 1928 to 1934 is that both were antipersonalist, or anti-Yrigoyen. By 1926, the Radical Civic Union was controlled by Yrigoyenistas, so the folks in control of that party would have wanted a pro-Yrigoyen candidate to run for 1928, even if Yrigoyen had died between 1926 and 1928.

 

[Admiral Brown]

As what I know about de la Sota's aborted candidacy, he wanted that his running mate would be Carlos Menem's former first wife. He could win the election anyway like what Kirchner do to Menem.

Not necessarly. Yes, anyone could have beaten Menem back then, but only the candidate who came second would pass to the second run. If he gets 5 or 10 % of the votes, he won't compete against Menem. Lopez Murphy had about 18 % of votes, and came third IOTL. In this case, he would have competed against Menem, and probably won.

De la Sota was to identified with Menem to be popular back then. He would have lost against Lopez Murphy, Rodriguez Saá and Carrió.

Reutemann was too reserved and afraid. Had Nestor Kirchner never runs, who would be the candidate of Duhalde?

I'm not sure...

Another question, would Cristina run for this coming election?

I believe he will, as she's the only one that can grant the government a triumph in the first round.

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

Not necessarly. Yes, anyone could have beaten Menem back then, but only the candidate who came second would pass to the second run. If he gets 5 or 10 % of the votes, he won't compete against Menem. Lopez Murphy had about 18 % of votes, and came third IOTL. In this case, he would have competed against Menem, and probably won.

Means that Lopez Murphy could get 70-30 over Menem unless Menem withdraws on what he did in OTL.

De la Sota was to identified with Menem to be popular back then. He would have lost against Lopez Murphy, Rodriguez Saá and Carrió.

If Lopez Murphy won the election, Argentina would resume to neo-liberal economic reforms, restructure the defaulted debt sensibly, pays the entire Paris Club debt, and maybe similar to Brazil or Peru's economic growth right now (best case might be China-like growth rate without inflation data manipulation).

I'm not sure...

Let say Felipe Sola or Carlos Ruckauf was Duhalde's candidate.

I believe she will, as she's the only one that can grant the government a triumph in the first round.

If she runs and won, Argentina's economy will implode by mid-2013 and she might be impeached. Cristina's reelection is dangerous to Argentina and might destroy Argentina forever.

 

[Petete123123]

The problem, I've realized, with Ortiz or Melo being the president of Argentina from 1928 to 1934 is that both were antipersonalist, or anti-Yrigoyen. By 1926, the Radical Civic Union was controlled by Yrigoyenistas, so the folks in control of that party would have wanted a pro-Yrigoyen candidate to run for 1928, even if Yrigoyen had died between 1926 and 1928.

You didn't understand what I posted before. Personalists were those who supported that people in goverment should be close to and could be trust by Yrigoyen, not the leader of their group. For this group to continue their existence, you need a powerful and charismatic leader who is Yrigoyen's clear heir. Which didn't exist by this time.
So what's the point of supporting a system where people in goverment should be close and trustable to someone who is dead and so is unable to control them?
After all, that's what Personalism is, to focus around a single person. If that person misses, then he has to be replaced by someone similar to him or the movement behind him falls.
So as Alvear is the only leader in the UCR, his faction will get most of the votes.
After this, a personalist figure around Sabbatini can appear again, but it won't be before 1936.

 

[yofie]

You didn't understand what I posted before. Personalists were those who supported that people in goverment should be close to and could be trust by Yrigoyen, not the leader of their group. For this group to continue their existence, you need a powerful and charismatic leader who is Yrigoyen's clear heir. Which didn't exist by this time.
So what's the point of supporting a system where people in goverment should be close and trustable to someone who is dead and so is unable to control them?
After all, that's what Personalism is, to focus around a single person. If that person misses, then he has to be replaced by someone similar to him or the movement behind him falls.
So as Alvear is the only leader in the UCR, his faction will get most of the votes.
After this, a personalist figure around Sabbatini can appear again, but it won't be before 1936.

Remember, Ortiz was an anti-personalist Radical who was a lawyer for several British railway companies, and was therefore quite unpopular with the nationalists. See this page for more details.

Yrigoyen was overwhelmingly returned to power in 1928 largely due to his attacks on foreign oil companies. See here. This environment would not be congenial to Ortiz or Melo for 1928.

 

[Mauro Motta]

Being owned by Britain doesn't mean instant stability or instant democracy. Look at South Africa.

Or Pakistan. Or Iraq.

 

[Goldstein]

Or Pakistan. Or Iraq.

Or Belize, or Jamaica... somehow, bluntly stating that Spanish derived cultures are unable to generate wealth and stability as much as British derived cultures is a reasonable thing. Maybe Cumbria should be readmitted so he can make a TL about a British Argentina, with Latin American politicians bowing before the Queen Victoria, begging for Her Gracious Majesty to assimilate them.

As for the challenge, there's definitely a top one. A local writer said it clearly once:

-It's the Peronist Pride day...
-Peronist Pride?? And they are proud about what?

 

[Petete123123]

Remember, Ortiz was an anti-personalist Radical who was a lawyer for several British railway companies, and was therefore quite unpopular with the nationalists. See this page for more details.

Yrigoyen was overwhelmingly returned to power in 1928 largely due to his attacks on foreign oil companies. See here. This environment would not be congenial to Ortiz or Melo for 1928.

Yrigoyen dies in 1926. Who do their followers now follow? Who do they vote?
There's simply no figure who can take the leadership of this group before facing the 1928 elections. As I said, Sabbattini is an option, but not before the 30s.

If you where a Personalist Radical, and you had to vote, and you don't have no one to guide you on who to vote, what you are going to do? Vote another leader or figure of the UCR.

Are there any strong candidates to vote? No, the Personalist system was supposed to be centered around Yrigoyen. He was supposed to be the only figure in the party and the rest should be people who he knew couldn't compete with him.

If Yrigoyen dies, his closer followers, who were Elpidio Gonzales, Jose Cantilo and Francisco Beiró, will either compete between themselves to win the presidential nomination or agree a platform, likely with Elpidio Gonzales as president.

Will this Yrigoyenista platform win? No, they lacked a popular leader. In this time, politics were 75% the man who you voted, 25% his ideas. The Antipersonalistas have the President and other figures like Ortiz. And they will likely catch more than half of the Yrigoyenistas votes.

Also, on the Nationalists you mentioned, they can't do a thing. They are mostly leaders of the military. For acting, they need support of the elite. And the elite is cheerful with the goverment granting oil rights to international companies. So they won't complain.

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

The problem, I've realized, with Ortiz or Melo being the president of Argentina from 1928 to 1934 is that both were antipersonalist, or anti-Yrigoyen. By 1926, the Radical Civic Union was controlled by Yrigoyenistas, so the folks in control of that party would have wanted a pro-Yrigoyen candidate to run for 1928, even if Yrigoyen had died between 1926 and 1928.

As Petete said, without Yrigoyen in the presidential election, his faction is going to lose to Melo, Oritz, Le Breton, Roca. Personalista faction has no other charismatic person to replace Yrigoyan had not run in 1928. Amadeo Sabattini (natural Yrigoyen successor in the faction) is not yet ready until 1940.

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

-Peronist Pride?? And they are proud about what?

Well, because of the rocky and shaky political system in Argentina is the reason why Peronism is still alive and every time there's an economic or political crisis, Peronist Party will change clothes from right-wing to left-wing or vice-versa.

POD in order for Peronism to be discredited by the Argentines: '

Had Eva Peron healthy and run for vice presidency in 1952 then runs for presidency in 1958 and Eva ruins Argentina politically and economically by 1962.

 

[Joseph Solis in Australia]

-Have Rivadavia unite the country under his liberal and progresist ideas, avoiding Civil War, and getting immigrants like 40 years earlier.

If that happens, Argentina's culture will be vastly different than in OTL. Instead of Italians, Germans or Irish might dominate Argentina and linguistically, Rioplatenese accent might be similar to Volgan German or Irish (depends who are the dominant of them in terms of number of immigrants) and maybe Rioplatenese with German accent will be the ugliest Spanish accent ever. But economically speaking, Argentina will be an economic power similar what Germany have right now.

-Have the Radicales truly change the goverment structure and system and not just become the new ones in power as they did OTL.

Had Sarmiento decides to imitate the Westminster parliamentary system and also Argentine Military mimics the British model instead of French model, future coup attempts will be butterflied away.

-Avoid Yrigoyen's second goverment.

Ditto.

 

[yofie]

I've been saying before that it was the Latin political culture as much as the new urban, immigrant-descended middle class and the Depression/WWII that ultimately propelled Peron's rise to power in 1945. I stand by all I've had to say, because Argentina faced the unique situation of being a large Latin American country getting a proportionally overwhelming wave of immigration from abroad (even Brazil didn't have such a high percentage of immigrants relative to the total population).

In the Latin political culture, in Argentina as elsewhere, there's been a conservative, landed elite for the longest time. When the immigrants came over, the landed elite intended for them to stay for only a short time in the country, as opposed to actually settling the land. The elite was therefore exclusionary to the immigrants, and denied them citizenship and voting rights for the longest time. By contrast, in the likes of the US, Canada, or Australia, the elites were much more favourable to the immigrants. The antagonism between the elites and the immigrants was what caused all this political conflict in Argentina, because the immigrants and their descendants wanted a political voice of their own. Even though it's true that it was a liberal democracy prior to 1930, it was limited relative to North America and other anglo democracies. Furthermore, there was no real capitalist elite in Argentina like in the developed world that could guide and finance economic development and was left at the mercy of other countries, like Britain and the US, to do so. For all these reasons, it was the underlying political structure as much as contemporary world events that did Argentina in.

And in terms of the UCR not splitting up in 1924, I'm not sure that it would have happened realistically (of course, you could fantasize anything), simply because Alvear wanted to get rid of "phantom" employees (not showing up regularly if at all) who were loyal to Yrigoyen in order to clean up the house of corruption - and these pro-Yrigoyen employees didn't like that one bit.

See here, comparing Canada (a developed anglo country) with Argentina, for more. And Canada and Argentina were similar, in some ways, in terms of their paths of economic development before 1930.