What would Tony Blair's reputation be like today if he had decided not to have Britain invade Afghanistan or Iraq? Would that alone be enough for him to be seen as a 'good guy?'
Immensely higher. Blair was extremely popular before Iraq , to the point that he was voted the 67th greatest Briton of all time in 2002.
Yeah, that list is somewhat of its era, Princess Diana is ranked number 3 and Robbie Williams number 77. Blair was at the height of his popularity then, he would probably slip down a bit as people got sick of him eventually.Immensely higher. Blair was extremely popular before Iraq , to the point that he was voted the 67th greatest Briton of all time in 2002.
Maybe, but I wonder if New Labour holds power in the party for a sustained period of 21-26 years, and without being discredited by Iraq, you might see Labour morph into a permanently centrist party, and the left migrate off to other left wing parties, like the Lib Dems, and the Greens, as new generations come through unable to remember a time when Labour were the left wing party, and give up on it as a vehicle for there ideas. The Lib Dems could become the left wing party in politics on a more permanent basis past the leadership of Charles Kennedy, especially if his resignation is butterflied by no Iraq, or the leadership election after he departs goes to a more left wing candidate, like Chris Huhne (he technically beat Clegg in 2007, if Blair was still in office then it is perfectly possible they would opt for a more left wing candidate by a bigger margin)I think though that by around this time OTL there would be the beginning of a reappraisal of Blair's and New Labour's legacy, just like there is with Bill Clinton's in the US. The Left would probably reassert itself in Labour as soon as they were to lose an election ATL.
Maybe, but I wonder if New Labour holds power in the party for a sustained period of 21-26 years, and without being discredited by Iraq, you might see Labour morph into a permanently centrist party, and the left migrate off to other left wing parties, like the Lib Dems, and the Greens, as new generations come through unable to remember a time when Labour were the left wing party, and give up on it as a vehicle for there ideas. The Lib Dems could become the left wing party in politics on a more permanent basis past the leadership of Charles Kennedy, especially if his resignation is butterflied by no Iraq, or the leadership election after he departs goes to a more left wing candidate, like Chris Huhne (he technically beat Clegg in 2007, if Blair was still in office then it is perfectly possible they would opt for a more left wing candidate by a bigger margin)
Well you could just opt for a Gore wins TL, Blair would be insane to want to go into Iraq on his own.Here is the problem with this TL. Tony Blair wasn't pushed into going into Iraq and Afghanistan, he wanted to do both. In fact Bush told him if you politically feel you want to opt out of Iraq it would be fine.
You would have to change his personality not to want to do Iraq and Afghanistan.
9/11 derailed and dominated Blair's second term and forced him to deal much more with external and much less with internal matters. Without the distraction, we'd have seen perhaps some more radical measures on education and welfare and while UK-US relations might have been strained in the one-term George W Bush presidency, the election of John Kerry in 2004 would have seen a rapprochement between the US and Europe/UK.
It's hard to see how Blair would have failed to win a huge majority over Iain Duncan-Smith's Conservatives in 2005 - would it have been Cameron or David Davis as his successor ?