Tony Blair joins the Conservatives Instead

In Oxford, Tony Blair met another pupil who introduced him to left wing politics which subsequently led him to join the Labour Party. But what if this never happened and he became a reluctant Conservative instead?

One thing is clear, he would have not been a Thatcherite, and would have found a home amongst Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine. Would he have ran against Thatcher in the 1990 leadership competition? What would have happened to Labour in the 90s? Would he ever become a Tory PM or would he defect and some point to the Liberals?
 
I believe Blair's father was a Conservative, perhaps if that friend at Oxford didn't push him left the young Tony would have been on the Clarke wing of the Tories. Of course, even if Blair didn't meet that friend he could very well have gone left later or at a similar time, usually people who shift politically are already heading in that direction once they meet someone or experience something that ultimately solidifies their political conversion.

That said, as a young Conservative Blair probably wouldn't have challenged Thatcher and he would have sat out the failed Tory coup against Major. Labour still wins in 1997, but after that the butterflies really start to kick in. Blair could either run for Conservative leader that year or support Clarke. If he runs, he wouldn't be strong enough to win in a crowed race unless he emerges as some sort of compromise candidate. On the other hand, Clarke came very close to becoming Conservative leader that year and with the support of the powerful Blair he could very well win. The Tories still lose in 2001 with Clarke as leader, but by a much smaller margin. And if the popular Clarke hangs on for 2005, the momentum from 2001 might carry the Tories to a stronger showing than Labour (In OTL the Tories were only three points behind Labour with the incompetent Howard). However, I don't think they'd be strong enough to win outright and the Parliament would be hung just like in OTL 2010. At that point Clarke forms a coalition with the Lib Dems. Blair would be at some important post like Chancellor of the Exchequer. If Clarke's government is successful, Blair might very well become his designated successor and win once Clarke steps down. However the timing would have to be perfect for all of this to happen and any number of unforeseen events could completely Blair from the roster of UK Prime Ministers. However, Blair had the ambition and charisma to be PM, so there's a likelihood of it happening at some point no matter what party he joins.
 
In Oxford, Tony Blair met another pupil who introduced him to left wing politics which subsequently led him to join the Labour Party. But what if this never happened and he became a reluctant Conservative instead?

One thing is clear, he would have not been a Thatcherite, and would have found a home amongst Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine. Would he have ran against Thatcher in the 1990 leadership competition? What would have happened to Labour in the 90s? Would he ever become a Tory PM or would he defect and some point to the Liberals?
This is a fun what-if, because in order to make a Tory Blair, you'd really have to set a POD far enough and college could work.

I want to (gently) question your assumption he would not be a Thatcherite. He arrived to St John's College, Oxford at 19 years old. If we suppose he does not read books on Trotsky and does not meet anyone who awakens his left-wing impulses, and he turns moderate right, then he would be a budding Tory student during the time of Heathite U-turns and electricity failures. His introduction to the Tory party would have been watching middle of the road Heath flail about and fail. And while his contemporary Michael Portillo (they were born the same year) was standing in a car park in Cambridge, waiting for the new Tory leader Margaret Thatcher to be whisked up in a dark car to knock on doors and campaign and knock him off his feet, he too might have met the fiery new leader during his formative years as she came to Oxford to do battle and be likewise smitten.

Heseltine (born twenty years before Blair) has said that he received his Toryism from Harold Macmillan. Ken Clarke came of age in the same era with the dying throes of Butskellism still ringing. Tory Blair in Oxford would have had a chance to follow the Heathite demarches (plural, because the man contradicted himself while denying he was doing any such thing), adopt the politics of an even older age of Macmillan, or become a foot soldier in the Thatcherite Revolution. I would not discount the possibility he would follow the latter course.

Later on, yes, he could change, as did his contemporary Portillo, but Tory Blair in Oxford... who knows.
 
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