Tokugawa Shogunate victorious?

Is a Shogunate victory possible in the Boshin War and would it seriously affect Japans modernization?
 
Now calm down, Uruk, this is a forum for debate, not simple, petty arguments.

Is a Shogunate victory possible in the Boshin War and would it seriously affect Japans modernization?

Yes, it is possible, albeit barely. Without Tokugawa Yoshinobu resigning as Shogun, the Tokugawas could have amassed enough conservative support (which is the only support they could get) to fight off the Imperials. However, a Tokugawa would necessitate some rather insane changes in government, with the emperor most certainly under home arrest and perhaps even deposed! :eek: Note that this would create huge dissent against the Shogunate in Japan, and necessitate a highly authoritarian state. Essentially, the continuing Tokugawa Shogunate would be along the lines of Siam in its absolutist character, attempting to hold on despite forces attacking at all sides. The Meiji would likely be restored eventually; however, this could push modernization back 10-30 years, which would be both impressive and have horrific consequences for Japan. Possibly, even European areas of influence would be established as the Tokugawas lose almost every battle they fight against the Europeans, which would leave a divided Japan and rather hideous difficulties in unification.

In other words, dude, why do you hate Japan so much?
 

scholar

Banned
So the answer is yeas ad nauseam unless one read the posted links where it is not at all.

And thanks for the very informative oneliner
yeas? Is that latin for something?

You are acting far too touchy on this.

The reason why I provided a one liner was because one word didn't fill in the necessary character count. The reason why it is something that is not in dispute is by the very nature of the Tokugawa Shogunate at this time. People like to believe that Japan was predestined for modernization, but without Emperor Meiji of Japan odds are the modernization process would be irrecognizable. The question was: Would this serious affect Japan's modernization? If you even for the slightest moment believe that it wouldn't then its not worth discussing. You might as well as asked would the American revolution be any different without George Washington or would the aftermath of the French revolution be any different without Napoleon? Its nonsensical to even suggest that it wouldn't be seriously different. Let's not even bring up that the sheer magnitude of butterflies caused by the Shogunate maintaining power rather than the Emperor becoming into his own is enough to radically redefine the entire world in the space of a few decades!

And what links? The ones that state that it will be different. The ones that state Japan will modernize anyways but with less western elements and keeping, perhaps, traditional dress? The ones that bring up a renewed hostage system? Let's not even discuss a Japan in which Shoguns and Daimyo still hold power in this process of industrialization, as that alone would make the process so mind bogglingly different.
 

scholar

Banned
No doubt. Still, he might do it, and thus be deposed. By the way, please, stop acting like a pretentious ass and actually talk to the man. There's far too much of that kind of thing on this board already.
The last Tokugawa Shogun was known as an intelligent man with perhaps the most ambition and talent a Shogun has had since Ieyasu, so I don't really think there's a scenario where he would willingly commit an act at the cusp of victory to destroy himself and everything he achieved.

I don't really think I am, rather I saw his post and had a negative reaction to it. I did try to make a joke about it though, to lighten the tone and seriousness of the post.
 
The last Tokugawa Shogun was known as an intelligent man with perhaps the most ambition and talent a Shogun has had since Ieyasu, so I don't really think there's a scenario where he would willingly commit an act at the cusp of victory to destroy himself and everything he achieved.

I don't really think I am, rather I saw his post and had a negative reaction to it. I did try to make a joke about it though, to lighten the tone and seriousness of the post.

You make a good point. I was just proposing a possibility and you're right to shoot it down.

Sorry, I think I overreacted. I get that you were just responding to what he said; sometimes I respond a little too strongly.
 

scholar

Banned
You make a good point. I was just proposing a possibility and you're right to shoot it down.

Sorry, I think I overreacted. I get that you were just responding to what he said; sometimes I respond a little too strongly.
Looking back though, you can get that impression. At the time I wasn't aiming to insult or be pretentious, rather I was trying to just illustrate that there's really no way to entertain the notion. It didn't come out that way, did it?
 
I don't understand why would Shogun deposing emperor Meiji have end badly for the former. Sth like that already happened once in Japanese history - during the XIVth century (Northern and Southern Courts period). Shogun just needs to chose a right puppet from Imperial family and install him as an Emperor. Of course Choshu/Satsuma/Tosa forces may not recognize deposing Emperor Meiji, in which case we end up with Western and Eastern Courts period.
 
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