Tody's After Effects - Chinese Mejii

DuQuense

After Effects - Chinese Mejii
What if China had pulled a Mejii in the 1870's, along with Japan.
Let us assume that [ITTL] Japan's Economic/Technical/Social development follows OTLs Japan, and China's is roughly Similar.

I am think of a 1870's Military Coup with an [ASB POD] in the 1850's -- BUT I am interested as to what our Modern world would look like.

China and Japan will be first world Countries, moving like the US/Europe into the post Industrial Economy.
China like Japan will have gone thru the Post industrial 3rd Generation Demographic Shift in the 1950's, and like Japan & Europe has a less than replacement birthrate, for it's 600?? million population.
Japan's is 1.1, is China's [ITTL] would be close to that. meaning that it's 600 would be 450 by 2050.
 

bulbaquil

Early modernization in China would probably result in a vastly different WWII, and of course would change outsourcing locations dramatically. (If China's already industrialized, you probably aren't off-shoring things there - if anything, China's outsourcing too).
 

Ofaloaf

How much of a parallel to the Meiji reforms are we talking about here? Implementation of a parliamentary structure? (if so, how strong is the parliament? Who gets to vote? What are the parties?) Introduction of a written constitution? (if so, who gets what powers?) Improvements in the schooling system?

If Japan's still doing its thing, then a 1st Sino-Japanese War initially along OTL lines probably still erupts-- there's no reason for the Qing to support Japanese efforts in Korea, and Tokyo was expecting difficulty fighting against China IOTL anyways and was pleasantly surprised when it turned out to be easier than expected. There'd still probably be a war, but with a modern military fighting closer to home, China may very well emerge victorious. No Japanese Korea, then.
 

PaulPierce

Ofaloaf said:
No Japanese Korea, then.
Click to expand...

This is pretty likely. This might however lead to a weaker Korea. Without the Japanese occupying and introducing industrialization and envoking a spirit of wanting to better their lives, the Korea we know today as the the world's 13th largest economy may not come to be.
 

MerryPrankster

PaulPierce said:
This is pretty likely. This might however lead to a weaker Korea. Without the Japanese occupying and introducing industrialization and envoking a spirit of wanting to better their lives, the Korea we know today as the the world's 13th largest economy may not come to be.
Click to expand...

Couldn't a "Meiji China" do the same thing?
 

Sam

Minor but possibly interesting point: Migration. Would a First-World China be as hostile to immigration as our world's Japan? What butterflies result from a reduction in the number of overseas Chinese?

I have some thoughts on the main what-if, but need to check some sources first.
 

LeX

Japan is like 99% Japanese, whereas China is "only" 90% Han and in the center of Asia and not on some small islands. You might have a situation where peoples from SE Asia are treated like those from Mexico in the USA though. China and Japan are very different nations in terms of policy and worldview, so you can't expect that a 1st-World China would do the same things that Japan does.
 
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Tobit

Tobit

China has a problem of economics it seems to me.

To create local industry, China has to enact protectionist policies. This seems unlikely but possible it basically means that the Chinese must over come all European powers as the Europeans had basically made it part of their policies to control through force their markets. Japan too treated China as a dumping ground for goods. China must totally avoid the Civil strife (like the taiping where 20,000,000 died) and enforce strict protectionism, along with avoid foreign invasion.

Perhaps instead of an Opium War that opened China to trade (trade is good) there is somehow a much more peaceful opening of China. But if around the 1870's China is a really booming economy, it is such a huge market for the Europeans that the Europeans in general will be poorer as Asia soon dominates the demand for industrial goods.
 

Faeelin

Tobit said:
Perhaps instead of an Opium War that opened China to trade (trade is good) there is somehow a much more peaceful opening of China. But if around the 1870's China is a really booming economy, it is such a huge market for the Europeans that the Europeans in general will be poorer as Asia soon dominates the demand for industrial goods.
Click to expand...

You know, America's largest trading partners are all developed industrial nations.
 

Nugax

DuQuense said:
After Effects - Chinese Mejii
What if China had pulled a Mejii in the 1870's, along with Japan.
Let us assume that [ITTL] Japan's Economic/Technical/Social development follows OTLs Japan, and China's is roughly Similar.

I am think of a 1870's Military Coup with an [ASB POD] in the 1850's -- BUT I am interested as to what our Modern world would look like.

China and Japan will be first world Countries, moving like the US/Europe into the post Industrial Economy.
China like Japan will have gone thru the Post industrial 3rd Generation Demographic Shift in the 1950's, and like Japan & Europe has a less than replacement birthrate, for it's 600?? million population.
Japan's is 1.1, is China's [ITTL] would be close to that. meaning that it's 600 would be 450 by 2050.
Click to expand...

If you fit Japans growth rate to Chinas for the 1870-2010 period you end up with 1.37 billion, a good 50 million more than currently. The earlier introduction of health and wealth more than compensates for a post-industrial birth rate, and the one child policy already emulated such a decrease in reproduction. Heck if you give 1870 China Britains growth curve you still end up with a billion strong population.
 

coefficient

Lord Grattan said:
It was snuffed out.
Click to expand...

yeah, but not before a lot of people died.

in my opinion you also have to prevent the massive deaths of the el nino famines of the 1870s. which means you have to have a more efficient transport infrastructure to deliver relief from non-drought afflicted provinces, which means railroads, which is entirely possible but to have a meiji china the railroads and the manufacturing industries they primarily serve must be chinese-owned and controlled, which means a stronger china going into the 1800s, more able to resist imperialism. a half-hearted effort in the opium war - like, some enterprising chinese guy smuggles tea into india in dashing feats of derring-do in 1820 and sets up shop undercutting his old country's prices - allows china to realize what an awful position it's in internationally and shape the heck up with the right emperor in charge of the right army and willing to break a few bureaucratic heads to do it.
 

Thingymebob

Having several hunderd million more people living first world lifestyles would have quite an impact on the world's resources. You will [FONT=&quot]probably ealier developments in green technology and recycling. We would probably see peak oil in the mid 1990s and ealry 2000s.

[/FONT] Politcally, the dymanics of East Asia are completely changed. Its likely that there will be considerable rivalry between the US, Japan and China over the Indo-china and the Asian-Pacific. This rivalry is likely to dominate international politics but will most likely result in China being the overall victors.
Other thoughts: Russia is likely to be overshadowed and may decide to build stronger relations with Europe to ward off potential Chinese ambitions in Sibrea etc. India is likely to be a manufacturing power now (similar to how China is IOTL). Traditional Chinese culture is likely to be more mainstream.
 

Shogun

At the very least, the borders of Qing Dynasty China would still be the boundaries of China to this very day:

Qing_Dynasty_1820.png


as compared with the current borders of the People's Republic of China:

china_mg.gif
 

Ofaloaf

Shogun said:
At the very least, the borders of Qing Dynasty China would still be the boundaries of China to this very day:
Click to expand...
Eh, not quite-- the 1858 Treaty of Aigun had already ceded the northeastern part of the empire beyond the Amur River to the Russians. Without knowing what the 1850s point of divergence is and going along with the premise of modernization efforts really kicking off in the 1870s...
 

Shogun

Ofaloaf said:
Eh, not quite-- the 1858 Treaty of Aigun had already ceded the northeastern part of the empire beyond the Amur River to the Russians. Without knowing what the 1850s point of divergence is and going along with the premise of modernization efforts really kicking off in the 1870s...
Click to expand...

Who is to say that a resurgent China would not reclaim the territories it lost prior to its period of modernization, or perhaps even gain? Remember, the author of this thread is asking what a China having gone through a Meiji-like period of westernization and modernization would look like by the present day. A stronger modernized China (presumably still under the Qing dynasty) would not take any cession of its territory lying down, and would likely fight in a future conflict to reclaim it.
 
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