To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory

[Cylon_Number_14]

Having Germany win WW1 at the last minute with the Spring Offensive truly makes for an interesting situation.

OTL, the Entente and associates barely held together after their nearly Pyrrhic Victory, with several regimes falling. It’s not quite on the scale of what happened to the Romanovs, but the Liberals in the UK never recovered from their “victory”, Wilson had a stroke and saw the Democrats collapse in popularity and were only resuscitated by the Great Depression. Italy’s democracy went Fascist early on, etc.

In this story, all of the above still seems to be happening but worse, and the “victorious” Central Powers regimes are only modestly better off than OTL. The militarists and junkers are already being shown the door in Germany despite their ultimately successful conquests of East and West, the Ottoman dynasty looks to be on its way out since they basically lost the war and the nationalist Turks are fully taking over the metropole. Lord knows what the Habsburg dynasty is facing in the 1920s. Bulgaria and its regime seem the biggest winners, having won its full territorial ambitions, though now all of its neighbors hate it.

It’s not totally inaccurate to describe the end of this war as having No Winners, Just Survivors. Germany clearly just conquered a vast empire of vassal states, but the sunk cost has been so high it’s unclear it will ever “make a profit” or be worth it.

 

[halfcoop]

Germany clearly just conquered a vast empire of vassal states, but the sunk cost has been so high it’s unclear it will ever “make a profit” or be worth it.

And that assume it can even hold for more then a decade or two, with Austria-Hungary being held together with duck tape and bubble gum it’s going to find itself isolated outside it’s puppets, who will increasingly chafe under German rule, surrounded by enemies who will inevitably face an increase in desire for a round 2.

Ironically it’s best hope is Great Britain deciding that the German status quo is better then whatever the former entente turns into

 

[KingSweden24]

“No Winners, Just Survivors” is probably the best description of this TL I’ve heard yet

 

[President Earl Warren]

“No Winners, Just Survivors” is probably the best description of this TL I’ve heard yet

Well, id say Germany has gotten quite a score dominating Eastern Europe. France and Britian held there own, but Germany has got a big prize out of it.

 

[Gabingston]

“No Winners, Just Survivors” is probably the best description of this TL I’ve heard yet

That'd be a good title for a timeline.

 

[boredviewer1234]

I'm not going to claim the central powers are doomed, but I sure suspect they will find peace not very prosperous or well peaceful.

Germany, Austro Hungary, Bulgaria, Ottoman empire are going to have to not only make sure their puppets stay in power but are also weak enough to push enough.

I think we can very much see Poland and Ukraine be a ulcer even without entente support from nations like Romania seeking to undermine the Austro Hungarians and well Polish nationalism is a decent way to undermine the CP if possible. Though I think Bulgaria will be facing a more serious insurgency for years at least.

Not saying it's hopeless but I suspect the idea of going to full peace time demobilization and no threat of war will take at least a while to reach than the promised peace they want.

 

[KingSweden24]

That'd be a good title for a timeline.

That it would!

 

[chrnno]

The only thing worse than a battle won is a battle lost. Europe has rough times ahead of them but for a lot of countries even rough times are likely to be better than OTL.

 

[Claudius]

Indeed. On a positive note, the life of a certain Austrian corporal will take a far different course, and Heinrich Himmler will likely remain a chicken farmer. The big question as to exactly how rough things will get is how events in Russia go, and how the Reich and the UK react to them. It looks like Italy has begun its slide into Fascism. It snould be remembered that in the Twenties, Mussolini was an admired figure in the West. It was his alliance with Hitler, and all that entailed that made him a pariah.

 

[boredviewer1234]

For Austro Hungarian empire I can see their being a Czechoslovak question, that is the Czechoslovak Legion is one of the biggest threats in the ex/decaying Russian empire and with the current victory well they backed the wrong side and lost, any hopes of a sovereign nation under the current world system is gone and frankly I would expect there be a strong desire among the army, elite and possibly general populace to crackdown on their ethnic groups and prevent the traitors from ever returning.

Issue is that well leaves the Czechoslovak Legion pretty likely to join the ''whites'' or at least join in the Entente powers attempts to salvage something from Russia, not saying they will be the eternal enemy of the central powers, on the contrary I would expect at least a sizeable part of it would do so more to pressure for concessions of pardons, limit retaliations against their peoples ect. If not well they can try and become the new army/elite in what's left of Russia as Slavs and favored by the entente.

Which I imagine is not going to sell well in the empire. So war and or compromise I feel will be something of a issue for a while.


likewise the Ottoman empire might have to deal with Assyrian volunteers, though I think their small enough to be butchered as at most they are a few thousand insurgents and the little love the Ottoman empire had for rebels during this period.

 

[Witteric of the West]

Re: Romania
IIRC, didn't Romania tend to prefer the Austro-Hungarians as partners to the Russians up until the Russians promised them Transylvania to join the war (and promptly caused the country to be largely occupied)? IIRC the Romanians had some... pretty severe issues with Russia regarding not just Bessarabia, but also the actions of the Russians while the Principalities were under their "protection" some decades earlier.

While some irredentist elements in Romania will try to cause trouble, it's likely that the situation will have the Russians being even more reviled there, not only did they screw over the country while it was a protectorate and steal half of Moldavia, but they also tricked Romania into a war they could not win, and the only good thing that came out of it (annexing Bessarabia) was something that they could have done without even entering the war (hindsight, of course, is 20/20, no one expected Russia to collapse so spectacularly), not to mention, Romania lost a good chunk of its gold reserves that were "for safekeeping" in St. Petersburg when the October Revolution happened. (Unless that has changed? But I think the POD is at least after the reserves were sent to St. Petersburg)

 

[boredviewer1234]

Re: Romania
IIRC, didn't Romania tend to prefer the Austro-Hungarians as partners to the Russians up until the Russians promised them Transylvania to join the war (and promptly caused the country to be largely occupied)? IIRC the Romanians had some... pretty severe issues with Russia regarding not just Bessarabia, but also the actions of the Russians while the Principalities were under their "protection" some decades earlier.

While some irredentist elements in Romania will try to cause trouble, it's likely that the situation will have the Russians being even more reviled there, not only did they screw over the country while it was a protectorate and steal half of Moldavia, but they also tricked Romania into a war they could not win, and the only good thing that came out of it (annexing Bessarabia) was something that they could have done without even entering the war (hindsight, of course, is 20/20, no one expected Russia to collapse so spectacularly), not to mention, Romania lost a good chunk of its gold reserves that were "for safekeeping" in St. Petersburg when the October Revolution happened. (Unless that has changed? But I think the POD is at least after the reserves were sent to St. Petersburg)

Not entirely true, the monarchy favored the CP but the political elite favored the Entente and you can tell which one won the struggle.

So I think it's likelier you would the see the monarchy use the anti Russian sentiment as a tool against their political enemies for popular support and the elite to largely favor besides wanting a another war use of the current Russian situation as a way to be A useful to their Entente backers and B as a tool of negotiations for pressure on the central powers.

Sides that, you've also got the issue of AH Romanian Volunteer Corps in Russia which is made of traitors to empire which could be a issue, though settling them in Bessarabia and Romania shutting up about their claims I can imagine being good for AH given their issues with frankly a lot of their ethnic issues and the need to protect the eastern part of the state (Poles, Ukrainians, Serbs, Slavs, Romanians really the post war legacy for what happens in the empire will interesting in both dealing with traitor/insurgents but also preventing new uprising/revolts).


Greece has a similar situation where the king favored the CP and elite Entente and with the enemies backing a war they lost their positions are strengthened.

 

[Guestman]

Personally can’t wait to see how Austria-Hungary disintegrates in this timeline. As for Poland, I’m further assuming it’ll get carved out of Congress Poland.

 

[boredviewer1234]

I admit I'm not sure Austria will collapse than become a failed state, for better or worse it did win the war and that does tend to boost it's loyalist even if it's in the sense that they realized they need the rest of the empire to stay even if it's just to feed their own lands. The army bound it a generation of men in blood.

You well could see a state that's full of rebels trying overthrow it equally matched by men determined to fight for loyalty to the state, for revenge against traitors, privilege's and ethnic conflicts.

 

[miketr]

I admit I'm not sure Austria will collapse than become a failed state, for better or worse it did win the war and that does tend to boost it's loyalist even if it's in the sense that they realized they need the rest of the empire to stay even if it's just to feed their own lands. The army bound it a generation of men in blood.

You well could see a state that's full of rebels trying overthrow it equally matched by men determined to fight for loyalty to the state, for revenge against traitors, privilege's and ethnic conflicts.

The thing is by the POD for this story the dual monarchy had lots of problems. I do not know if peace will fix those problems.

Michael

 

[Bregil]

The thing is by the POD for this story the dual monarchy had lots of problems. I do not know if peace will fix those problems.

Michael

Absolutely true. By the same token, however, everyone recognizes that there are problems that need to be addressed. Even the Magyar landowners have largely (grudgingly) come around to the idea that "some small changes might be needed." (Granted, their idea of a "reasonable" reform is undoubtedly far short of what is actually necessary but it's a start.) Fortunately for the House of Hapsburg, they have Karl I on the throne and he was nothing if not convinced OTL of the necessity for reforms. Whether he succeeds or not is an open question but it would not be for a lack of trying.

 

[Seandineen]

I admit I'm not sure Austria will collapse than become a failed state, for better or worse it did win the war and that does tend to boost it's loyalist even if it's in the sense that they realized they need the rest of the empire to stay even if it's just to feed their own lands. The army bound it a generation of men in blood.

You well could see a state that's full of rebels trying overthrow it equally matched by men determined to fight for loyalty to the state, for revenge against traitors, privilege's and ethnic conflicts.

St. Karl will have a nice secure reign at the beginning i believe.

 

[Rattenfänger von Memphis]

I know I am not alone in missing this informative and creative timeline since its most recent chapter was posted July 19, 2022. I also know that it is incredibly hard and time-consuming to continue to churn out one outstandingly logical chapter after another as TheReformer has consistently done from the beginning. So I just want to make sure that TheReformer knows how missed he is, how grateful we are for this enjoyable timeline and how much his return is anticipated.

 

[Shiva]

I know I am not alone in missing this informative and creative timeline since its most recent chapter was posted July 19, 2022. I also know that it is incredibly hard and time-consuming to continue to churn out one outstandingly logical chapter after another as TheReformer has consistently done from the beginning. So I just want to make sure that TheReformer knows how missed he is, how grateful we are for this enjoyable timeline and how much his return is anticipated.

Dude there are active TL's that can go MONTHS if not YEARS without updates from active users, TheReformer is going at a pretty steady clip compared to most so relax.

 

[TheReformer]

Chilleth peeps!

Next update has genuinely been 99% done for like two weeks - Ive just been on holidays and then back at work!

It shall come in due course!

Cheers tho