To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory

I mean sure, if you ignore the fact the German Naval buildup was specifically design to challenge the RN and had passed several naval laws to such purpose, the freakout about german fleet was nothing to do with its growing size...
Well sure, if your definition of "Challange the Royal Navy" is: Make the UK think twice before treating Germany again the way they treated the Scandinavian countries in OTL WW1 and treated Germany before as well. Then yes it was.

If your definition of "Challange the Royal Navy" on the other hand is: Be able to decisively defeat the Royal Navy to pave the way for Operation Sea Lion. Then no it wasn't.
 
Well sure, if your definition of "Challange the Royal Navy" is: Make the UK think twice before treating Germany again the way they treated the Scandinavian countries in OTL WW1 and treated Germany before as well. Then yes it was.

If your definition of "Challange the Royal Navy" on the other hand is: Be able to decisively defeat the Royal Navy to pave the way for Operation Sea Lion. Then no it wasn't.
Britain at the time would never abide anybody even dreaming of the first. Not Germany, not France, not Russia
 
Ideally the German post-war fleet of Capital ships would consist of the 4 Bayern BBs, the 4 Mackensen BCs {with the 2 Bayern BBs and 4 Mackensen BCs that have started construction being finished}, the 2 Derfflinger BCs, the Von der Tann BC, the Moltke BC and the Seydlitz BC in active service. While the 5 Kaiser and 4 König Class BBs, as well as the 4 Deutschland Class Pre-dreadnoughts, would be held in reserve the remaining older BBs and Pre-dreadnoughts would be disposed of by either gifting/selling them to other countries or scrapping.
That makes for too many BCs and too few BBs, meaning an unbalanced fleet, though
 
Germans will have mineral wealth of Ukraine. Thats a lot. If they can get Luxemburg thats even more.

Again letting French off lightly in exchange for the above is a net win. You need to know when to cash in your chips and walk away from the table. Brest-Litovsk is a huge pot to cash in.

Michael
I don't think the iron ore in ukraine had had been discovered yet.
Also taking briey from France is essential for weakening them, which in turn i essential in order to ensure there Is not a round 2
 
That makes for too many BCs and too few BBs, meaning an unbalanced fleet, though
While this is technically true the Mackensen-Class ships can easily be counted as fast-Battleships and then we'd be at 8 BBs and 5 BCs which isn't that unbalanced as a Fleet.

Reasoning for the above statement:
The Mackensen-Class BC come in at a Displacement of 31,000 t (30,510 long tons) (standard)/35,300 t (34,700 long tons) (full load) making them slightly heavier than the Renown-class battlecruisers at a Displacement of 27,200 long tons (27,600 t) (normal)/36,800 long tons (37,400 t) (deep load) or the Iron Duke-class battleships at a Displacement of 25,000 tons / 29,500 full load but lighter than the Queen Elizabeth-class battleships at a Displacement of 32,590 long tons (33,110 t) (normal)/33,260 long tons (33,790 t) (Deep load) while carrying 8 × 35 cm (13.8 inch) guns (leaving them only two guns short of the Iron Duke-class) and a similar amount of armor to the Iron Duke-class.
 
On the topic of ships, is Germany going to get the commercial ships seizes by other countries such as Portugal, Brasil, USA etc back?
 
I binge read this TL today and I am impressed with what you've written TheReformer.

Some of my predictions on what's going to happen in the near future.

- The Peace established by this treaty will be VERY unsatisfactory by Germany, effectively setting the stage for WWII.

- France will see the collapse of the Third Republic within a year, it will be replaced by a military dictatorship and possibly a monarch will be installed to provide some gloss for the regime. Many leaders of the French military have links to both the Bonapartes and in this era the Orleanaists are also popular thanks to their members military careers.

- The Central Powers will still make better gains in Eastern Europe than they will Western Europe, but while Bulgaria will see some expansion, their goal of completely dismembering Serbia will still not be fully achieved.

- The Italian Communist Revolution will spread into Austria-Hungary regardless of Germany's desire for A-H stability, forcing a military intervention.

- Britain is going to turn more toward America for help in the future as it will be seen as a more reliable ally.

- America will regard this whole affair as a waste of resources and getting involved 'late' just cost the nation the lives of good men for nothing. Isolationism will be an even stronger force in the USA than in RL.

- Japan, if it loses Britain as an ally to America, will become even more belligerent in Asia.

- The USSR will 'poo-poo' all the Imperial antics, while continuing their own imperialist policies... I'm sorry I meant 'spreading the glorious revolution' and 'creating magical utopia'.
 
While this is technically true the Mackensen-Class ships can easily be counted as fast-Battleships and then we'd be at 8 BBs and 5 BCs which isn't that unbalanced as a Fleet.

Reasoning for the above statement:
The Mackensen-Class BC come in at a Displacement of 31,000 t (30,510 long tons) (standard)/35,300 t (34,700 long tons) (full load) making them slightly heavier than the Renown-class battlecruisers at a Displacement of 27,200 long tons (27,600 t) (normal)/36,800 long tons (37,400 t) (deep load) or the Iron Duke-class battleships at a Displacement of 25,000 tons / 29,500 full load but lighter than the Queen Elizabeth-class battleships at a Displacement of 32,590 long tons (33,110 t) (normal)/33,260 long tons (33,790 t) (Deep load) while carrying 8 × 35 cm (13.8 inch) guns (leaving them only two guns short of the Iron Duke-class) and a similar amount of armor to the Iron Duke-class.
Mmm, you may add a bit of armor and have them going at 27kn instead of the planned 28, and that would do the trick
 
- The USSR will 'poo-poo' all the Imperial antics, while continuing their own imperialist policies... I'm sorry I meant 'spreading the glorious revolution' and 'creating magical utopia'.
I think you mean the RSFSR, considering the other SSRs which initially formed the USSR (the Ukrainian and Belarusian SSRs and the Transcaucasian SFSR) would be outside of the control of the Bolsheviks.
 
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Just a point on possible war aims. The Briey-Longwy iron mines would be a big deal but also an obstacle for a treaty. How about demanding them until reparations are fully paid? And assign an annual value to them.
 
Just a point on possible war aims. The Briey-Longwy iron mines would be a big deal but also an obstacle for a treaty. How about demanding them until reparations are fully paid? And assign an annual value to them.
That famously worked when France did it to Germany :D
 
I mean sure, if you ignore the fact the German Naval buildup was specifically design to challenge the RN and had passed several naval laws to such purpose, the freakout about german fleet was nothing to do with its growing size...

It was built to challenge it eventually, but was incapable of doing so. Pre-war, the British Admiralty was very well aware that this was the case.

It is impossible to explore alternate outcomes to the Anglo-German naval race without taking into consideration the role of internal politics on both sides, and for the British this means the invasion war scare and all the related scandals. I would recommend reading Andreas Rose's work Between Empire and Continent - British Foreign Policy before the World War for more detailed explanations on how the invasion scare was used as a lever for domestic political success, and securing funds, by many actors, even while the Admiralty reiterated time and again that the HSF was incapable of threatening the British coasts. Press Germanophones like Repington and Maxse were instrumental to the desire of the Liberal Imperialists to 1) leave splendid isolation by joining the alliance system on what they thought was the stronger side, i.e. France/Russia, and 2) avoid what happened to the radicals in the khaki elections: lowering the defense budget, and paying the price with voters.

To be clear, Britain was just as useful to German domestic political circles as a scapegoat and an excuse to push forward partisan political projects. I'm only focusing on Britain because it is the one point where the old narrative of German action and British reaction still holds sway, even though any archival search for the British side clearly reveals that the calculations taking place were quite different, and that Britain was proactive, not reactive - as it befits the greatest naval power of the time. Even Repington admitted that his press campaigns against the Reich weren't motivated by the existence of the HSF, saying that the Channel Fleet "is by itself a match for the German fleet, and reinforced by the Atlantic Fleet, it has an overwhelming superiority in the world. ... The truth is ... our superiority over Germany is so overwhelming and the superiority of our personnel and of our gunnery practice is so great, that the Germans know it would be madness for them to provoke war."

I want to thank @Erzherzog_Karl who first made me aware of the literature in this regard and who's far more knowledgeable on the subject than I am. But I also want to close on a final note. Many works of alternate history that focus on Germany - and this timeline is not one of them, one of the reasons why it's one of my favourite works on this site - tend to fall into a misleading pattern where Germany is "the player" and everyone else is "the game world". Germany takes an action, the rest of the world reacts. If Germany chooses different, then the rest of the world also chooses different.

But the real world is more complex than that, butterflies notwithstanding. Other countries have agency. They have their own foreign and domestic problems, and political plans that exist independently of what Germany does. Germany by itself isn't going to chase away the political pressures placed upon British parties by the khaki election, to go with the relevant example. In this TL's postwar, just like in an alternate prewar scenario, Germany might even decide to go with what they think is the best way to ensure peaceful coexistence with Britain, but that doesn't mean they will magically get it, because Britain has its own problems and its own plans.
 
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Also could we get a heads up on Lettow-Vorbeck? His wilde hide is still going in Africa.
Von Lettow-Vorbeck as per OTL would be in North Rhodesia by now, upon news of the Armistice his forces would likely have surrendered and been interned under good conditions. Primarily because while the conflict technically is still ongoing at sea, his forces by this point in 1918 were pretty much exhausted of their supplies and fighting capacity.

Is the Polar Bear Expedition still going on in this timeline?
I expect it would have done so, primarily because the main motivator for the intervention was not actually direct military action against the Bolsheviks, and more an attempt by the allies to deny the Soviets access to weapons caches in Arkangelisk. Not so sure about the far east intervention on the US part though.
 
Chaos in Germany: Revolution From Above (October-November 1918)
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Chaos in Germany
Revolution From Above
October-November 1918

While discussions over the future Anglo-German relationship began, Germany was undergoing its own domestic changes.

Forming a cabinet involving the Zentrum, SPD and a collection of non-partisan independents, Chancellor von Payer first sought to make minor reforms prior to the calling of fresh elections. These aimed at changing the electoral franchise in the country, while also providing more accountability for the decisions of the Chancellor and military.

Despite harbouring hopes for more ambitious plans in the long run, something he would certainly be too old to oversee, von Payer opted not to challenge the military clique ruling the country in the immediate term. Even Ludendorff himself, along with Hindenburg, now realised after just a few days of a general strike that in the short term at least Germany needed radical change to provide stability.

The OHL and von Payer’s administration had somewhat closed ranks in the weeks following the beginning of negotiations with the British. While debating the terms, the two factions had largely come to rely on one another, with von Payer growing in confidence in the role and relying on military endorsement for parliamentary reforms, while Hindenburg and Ludendorff relied on von Payer for stability and legitimacy.

Unlike the OHL though, von Payer’s eye was on the horizon. He knew that provided he could get Germany out of the war, he would in the long run assure the demise of the German military autocracy. This was for the simple reason that the German right was poorly coordinated and unpopular, and the country was increasingly demanding popular legitimacy behind it’s Governments.

Further too, he knew that the Kaiser himself was extremely unpopular, while the Crown Prince was younger, more popular, but also a supporter of the Fatherland Party. As such, placating the Kaiser and the OHL seemed the sensible move to ensure elections took place in the short term under rules that he under his Chancellorship could shoe-horn into place prior to the poll.

These came through the ‘October Reforms’. These would restrict the Emperor’s right to declare war unilaterally, requiring the consent of the Reichstag to both declare and end a conflict. Further, it would provide the Reichstag with the ability to force the resignation of a Chancellor by a majority vote, though appointments of the Chancellor remained the Emperor’s prerogative.

In agreeing to a softer than desired set of reforms, not stripping the Kaiser of his role but merely reducing it and making it legally easy for the Reichstag to remove an unpopular Chancellor, while limiting the power of the Kaiser to declare war, von Payer sought to provide legal obstacles to the military. He did not challenge the Kaiser’s unique ability to make military appointments, a non-starter with the OHL, but he did include in the package that members of the Reichstag could now be ministers while holding their seats.

These reforms could be built on over time, for example by removing the five year funding guarantee for the military in the longer term, but despite his virulent hatred for that financial structure von Payer accepted he was too old to oversee it’s removal.

Further, in order to prevent the rise of extremist factions on the country’s left that became a concern after the mutiny of the Hochseeflotte, von Payer and the OHL agreed in line with the Kaiser’s promised Easter reform proposals of 1917 that the Prussian Landtag and it’s House of Representatives would be reformed. This would aim to end the three-tier prussian voting system, institute secret ballot voting and allow for universal democratic suffrage in the province.

This would ensure parity throughout the country on electoral structures, while retaining the bicameral nature of the Landtag and further weakening the power of the Conservatives over the country, who only had any significant legislative influence in Prussia where they dominated the legislature. Due to this dominance though, von Payer would be unable to immediately change the franchise, certainly not before elections. Instead the interfactional committee would arrange to coordinate their candidate slates for the Prussian landtag elections to strengthen their influence over the legislature, aiming to then abolish the system form within after the poll - or all else failing, to circumvent the constitution by using the influence of the Kaiser to prompt reform.

Yet throughout October repressive actions, just as much as reform, were taking place across the country.

Emboldened by the protests and seeing the pre-reform period as their sole opportunity, the radical leftists of the Communist and Spartakist Parties sought to make their move. Their goal, not trusting the Social Democrats and the monarchist Ebert, would be to trigger the total downfall of the monarchy and military clique, the parliamentarization or even socialization of Germany, and to secure a peace without any annexations through a radical revolution.

In this, they first sought to establish control over local military forces around Berlin in anticipation of a second general strike aimed at toppling the moderate Government. Emboldened by the Hochseeflotte’s mutiny, popular political leaders in the Spartacists such as Paul Levi sought to capitalise on the situation. Effectively leading the Spartacists due to Rosa Luxembourg and Karl Liebknecht’s continued imprisonment, Levi sought to encourage the establishment of various national councils within industrial centres and military facilities to gain influence over the populace.

Despite their lofty aims though, the Spartacists found that there was little appetite for an anti-monarchist revolt and the momentum of revolutionaries was rapidly eroding following the strike and beginning of negotiations with the British. Even the Independent Social Democrats, who had split from their main party over the goals of the peace and the left’s district for the pro-war SPD stance, had begun to look at the SPD with dwindling contempt.

The party was, after all, in Government now. Further, it was willing to cooperate with the USPD, even if its policies would be greatly reduced. Overall the sense of urgency for the USPD simply had started to erode - which itself left the Spartacists with a feeling of growing desperation as returning soldiers and paramilitary groups attacked spartacists campaigning in the street.
 
It was built to challenge it eventually, but was incapable of doing so. Pre-war, the British Admiralty was very well aware that this was the case.

It is impossible to explore alternate outcomes to the Anglo-German naval race without taking into consideration the role of internal politics on both sides, and for the British this means the invasion war scare and all the related scandals. I would recommend reading Andreas Rose's work Between Empire and Continent - British Foreign Policy before the World War for more detailed explanations on how the invasion scare was used as a lever for domestic political success, and securing funds, by many actors, even while the Admiralty reiterated time and again that the HSF was incapable of threatening the British coasts. Press Germanophones like Repington and Maxse were instrumental to the desire of the Liberal Imperialists to 1) leave splendid isolation by joining the alliance system on what they thought was the stronger side, i.e. France/Russia, and 2) avoid what happened to the radicals in the khaki elections: lowering the defense budget, and paying the price with voters.

To be clear, Britain was just as useful to German domestic political circles as a scapegoat and an excuse to push forward partisan political projects. I'm only focusing on Britain because it is the one point where the old narrative of German action and British reaction still holds sway, even though any archival search for the British side clearly reveals that the calculations taking place were quite different, and that Britain was proactive, not reactive - as it befits the greatest naval power of the time. Even Repington admitted that his press campaigns against the Reich weren't motivated by the existence of the HSF, saying that the Channel Fleet "is by itself a match for the German fleet, and reinforced by the Atlantic Fleet, it has an overwhelming superiority in the world. ... The truth is ... our superiority over Germany is so overwhelming and the superiority of our personnel and of our gunnery practice is so great, that the Germans know it would be madness for them to provoke war."

I want to thank @Erzherzog_Karl who first made me aware of the literature in this regard and who's far more knowledgeable on the subject than I am. But I also want to close on a final note. Many works of alternate history that focus on Germany - and this timeline is not one of them, one of the reasons why it's one of my favourite works on this site - tend to fall into a misleading pattern where Germany is "the player" and everyone else is "the game world". Germany takes an action, the rest of the world reacts. If Germany chooses different, then the rest of the world also chooses different.

But the real world is more complex than that, butterflies notwithstanding. Other countries have agency. They have their own foreign and domestic problems, and political plans that exist independently of what Germany does. Germany by itself isn't going to chase away the political pressures placed upon British parties by the khaki election, to go with the relevant example. In this TL's postwar, just like in an alternate prewar scenario, Germany might even decide to go with what they think is the best way to ensure peaceful coexistence with Britain, but that doesn't mean they will magically get it, because Britain has its own problems and its own plans.
This is an outstanding comment
 
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