To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory
- Thread starter TheReformer
- Start date
Colonies? Probably, or at least they'll surely try.
European territory? Question there is I suppose do they want to deal with occupying some part of France for quite a while. We'll have to see.
I don't see France losing too much metropolitan territory beyond some key industrial and defensive pieces close to the pre-war border; Germany will be able to take much more from Belgium. Given the realities on the ground for the colonial fronts, I suspect there will be a lot more horsetrading between Germany and the Anglo-Japanese alliance. If Portugal goes sideways in the near future, there's even more land to be divied up in the name of saving British face/sating Willy II's appetite for imperialism.
With Britain and America still in the war I don't see why the British need to let Germany have any colonies. Would the Germans really be willing to continue the war over colonial territories anyway? The Germans have won in Europe at this point but are as battered (probably more so) as the British. Surely all of their gains in Europe from Brest-Litovsk and France/Belgium more than make up for the loss of their colonies anyway. Does the average German citizen even care about the colonies?
Here's what I think a future peace treaty would look like
- All parties must recognize the treaty of Brest-Litovsk and the treaty of Bucharest
- Germany will annex Luxembourg
- Germany will not annex any French or Belgian territory
- but it [Germany] will occupy key positions along the French border until France pays all of its reparations to Germany
- German forces will get out of Belgium, but Belgium will be demilitarized
- Italy will annex some territory of Austria-Hungary, probably some parts of Tyrol
- All parties will recognize the territory territories that Bulgaria took during the war
- Bulgaria will probably take some parts of Greek Macedonia
- Greece will be likely compensated with Northern Epirus
- All German colonies in Africa will be returned
- Belgian Congo will be under joint German-belgian control, probably a Condominium
- Germany will sell all of its colonies in Asia to the British and Japanese
green represents something I'm sure will happen, while yellow represents something I'm not too certain about.
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While this is entirely speculative on my part and I look forward to where the story goes, I would say Britain would prefer colonial concessions over Germany swallowing up even more of Europe.
Germany not occupying the Channel Ports in exchange for some slices of Africa is a good trade for Britain.
Of course it all depends on what the German positions are too, and this is after 4 years of increasing radicalisation and cost on both sides.
Does this includes german Tsigtao? Maybe Germany would want that back to maintain access to the chinese market.
Well. Germany can always partition Belgium with France if Britain proves to be not open for negotiations regarding the colonies. Doesn't look like a good trade for Britain.
Regarding Russia: It doesn't matter whether it's going to be ruled by a Tsar, General Secretary, President, etc. It'll be revanchist either which way. The best outcome for Germany is maximum balkanization. In other words they shouldn't support either of the two main factions, expect for some surplus arms to whichever side is weaker, but instead support any secessionist faction that has a decent chance to succeed.
Probably not. Germany cannot afford it to look like their main ally lost the war with Italy.
... IMHO wrong wording:
Luxemburg would not being 'annexed' (esp. not into Prussia and by whatever mariage scheme only too often proposed) but might become a full member-state of the German Realm as Bavaria, Saxony, Waldeck, Schaumburg-Lippe etc. were also in thereby 'finalizing' what had already begun with Luxembourgs membership in the Zollverein (customs union) of 1842.
... with all duties but also all rights as all the other members enjoy.
...that's both more and less, than what I expect
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Before all else Germany would probably gun for war reparations, as otherwise their economy detonates. Karl Helfferich's plan for financing the war severely overcharged their debt with the hope that Germany wins and extracts reparations from France like in 1871. OTL this led to the German economy imploding in 1918-1923 because, well, they lost.
Because Germany is still the Empire, raising/establishing taxes is not possible, so reparations are the only way they can stay afloat.
Because Germany is still the Empire, raising/establishing taxes is not possible, so reparations are the only way they can stay afloat.
I mean, who knows. If we extrapolate from OTL German reparations, Germany failed to meet the quota so often and had to be bailed out so often that I think some people calculate they paid a negative amount of reparations by 1933 lol. (Might be misremembering)
On the other hand Germany was planning to turn the Longwy-Briey mines into federal owned regions and extract direct revenue from all their production, so maybe that will help a little? 🤷♂️ not sure how profitable they were.
Longwy-Briey alone produces 26.1% of Europe's pig iron ore, which if annexed would bring Germany to 50.1% of Europe's iron extraction approx.
It also represents 80% of France's iron output. So yeh, profitable.
France might have a better chance of paying than OTL Germany did. People always say Germany's indemnities weren't bad compared to 1871 For France, but in 1871, France was mostly intact econoimically and had colonies. Germany had neither in 1919.
France will be economically devastated, but at least at first, it will still have colonies to help finance the reparations. And if Germany is smart, they won't also constantly fuck with France's economy out of some weird desire to keep France down, the way the Allies did with Germany afterwards (also, forcing Germany out of the gun export market was just petty BS. If you want them to pay up, leave them to find any way they can rather than kneecapping them in every way)
France will be economically devastated, but at least at first, it will still have colonies to help finance the reparations. And if Germany is smart, they won't also constantly fuck with France's economy out of some weird desire to keep France down, the way the Allies did with Germany afterwards (also, forcing Germany out of the gun export market was just petty BS. If you want them to pay up, leave them to find any way they can rather than kneecapping them in every way)
Also stealing every merchant ship and patent didn't exactly help either.
The Middle East: Megiddo (September 1918)
The Middle East
Megiddo
September 1918
The Battle of Megiddo came at a vital moment for Britain. Hung up for over a month blindly staring into the abyss as front after front fell, for many in Britain and even the Government it felt as though Britain was clinging onto a war pointlessly that nobody wanted and few knew how to fight - except for one front; Palestine.
The capture of Jerusalem in December 1917 by Allenby’s forces in the Levant had proved a much needed source of morale for the allies during the last year of the war, but the German spring offensives had sapped him of his fighting strength and denied him the chance to launch another major attack. Now, re-armed with a large force of troops from the Balkans, Italy and even France, Allenby planned to be bold and launch a major, war-ending offensive against the Turks.
Planning a bold attack, Allenby would use his force strength to strike directly at the heart of the Turkish formation, destroying the vital junction of the Hejaz railway at Deraa using Arab cavalry, air bombings and feigning an attack into the Jordan valley while instead targeting the levantine coast in a major cavalry assault north towards the towns of Afula and Meggido.
Here, by seizing Afula, they would cut off Arab forces west of the river Jordan from supply, while also destroying the capability of the Turkish 4th Army (Djemal Kucuk) to re-supply, forcing their surrender or withdrawal.
The Turks for their part gravely underestimated the British resolve to fight. Seeing the collapse of Russia and the German spring offensives, the Ottoman military resolved to seize land in the caucuses rather than stave off the British, believing that Britain would eventually give in and that the capture of Baku oil wells before the arrival of the German Kaukasian Expedition would greatly strengthen the post-war Turkish position. In this they were woefully naive, allowing Allenby to build up a force of nearly 70,000 infantry, 15,000 cavalry and 800 artillery guns - against the Turks 32,000 infantry, 2,000 cavalry and 400 guns.
Enormously outnumbered and alarmed at the British refusal to concede, but unwilling to end their offensives into the Caucuses out of a blind battle for control with Germany, the Turks inadvertently doomed themselves on the southern front.
When Allenby’s attack came, it destroyed virtually the entire Turkish force and sent the 8th and 4th armies into flight. Harassed from the air and by artillery, along with the enormous British cavalry corps who led what would be the last major cavalry led offensive in history, the Ottoman force in the south all but dissolved - leading to panicked calls between the Ottoman and Germans commands for aid.
Consequences
The defeat at Megiddo would prove a sudden and devastating loss for the Ottoman Empire. Immediately calling for aid from the Germans, the country found itself rebuffed by the Germans over Turkish insistence on their drive to seize Baku - a major German war goal. The failure of the two sides to resolve this dispute quickly and the inability of the Turkish army to redeploy units in force from the Caucuses owing to a lack of rail infrastructure meant that British forces began a relentless drive towards Anatolia.
This was a major shot in the arm for the British and left the Ottoman empire concerned about its future. With German forces tied down in Europe holding frontlines, and fears of the growing unrest in Germany against the British blockade leaving the OKL nervous of dispatching further forces to Asia - a slow process - British troops soon seized Damascus and then Aleppo.
The fall of Aleppo did not come as a major shock to the Ottoman state though, and the Ottoman Government was more than willing to lose the non-Turkish parts of the empire in exchange for expansion into Turkic Russia, but Britain had no intention of halting their advance there.