To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory
- Thread starter TheReformer
- Start date
I'm always curious about stuff like a late CP victory, or what can passed as a victory given this is the Great War we're talking about.
Same for the United States especially in these types of deals. We literally fought one battle, Belleau Wood/TTL Bellau. A pyrrhic victory at best as the chapter out it.
“The Regiment has carried itself with undying glory, but the price was heavy”.
More so given France, without telling the United Kingdom, or the USA, it cuts a armistice with Germany and talks peace.
I am reminded of stuff like A Shift in Priorities, which among other things, Wilson and the Democratic Party is shamed and discredited after the War.
Same for the United States especially in these types of deals. We literally fought one battle, Belleau Wood/TTL Bellau. A pyrrhic victory at best as the chapter out it.
“The Regiment has carried itself with undying glory, but the price was heavy”.
More so given France, without telling the United Kingdom, or the USA, it cuts a armistice with Germany and talks peace.
I am reminded of stuff like A Shift in Priorities, which among other things, Wilson and the Democratic Party is shamed and discredited after the War.
Dude ASIP is one of the most legendaries TL here, I think almost everyone here have read it
It's definitely one of the classics, that is for certain. Even those who haven't read it know the name and set up
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Oh man, the popular-level Anglo-American bantz about the French being cheese-eating surrender monkeys are going to be even more libelous in this timeline. I wonder if we'll get an Anglo dolchstosslegende against the French for surrendering and thusly "wasting" all of Britain's sacrifices in the war. Maybe they'll try to gorge themselves on colonies a la the Napoleonic Wars as a way to save face, although alienating the humiliated French probably won't help in trying to prevent German hegemony in the rest of Europe.
America's concerns, I suspect, will be of a much more prosaic fashion -- how to get their loans paid back by powers that may well have to also pay indemnities to the Germans.
America's concerns, I suspect, will be of a much more prosaic fashion -- how to get their loans paid back by powers that may well have to also pay indemnities to the Germans.
Most likely
If UK has to pay indemnities, what are the odds of Berlin ever receiving a penny of it? 1%? ,5%?
Yeah America will be pissed at the French.
“We only got to fight one battle and France fell before we could prove the might of democracy!”
Now, I am more concerned of France's fate. The Third Republic will really not stand the test of time...
I mean, I think it'd be the Brits who'd be angry, vis-a-vis a nation that back then tended naturally towards isolation and only had to shoulder the losses of one battle at the end instead of all the carnage that the BEF endured. I could see the media getting mad, but without the kind of popular anger that is gonna bubble up in Britain at their establishment (and quite possibly their ancient enemies across the Channel.)
The US will probably try and wash their hands, or find some way to save face in the negotiations.
UK; Probably keep up the fight in the colonies and everywhere outside of Europe given that Germany is rather hamstrung in its efforts to project power outside of where they can drive a car to without issue.
Japan, same, the KM will have difficulty cutting the mustard against the IJN in the Pacific for the simple reason that it can’t get out of the North Sea. If they’re lucky, Japan pays them some money to save face, but they’re not getting the E. Asian posessions back
The KM cannot contest the RN in the North Sea as seen historically, let alone with the USN joining the fray. Any attempt at a half-baked marine mammal, or for that matter just a sortie into the Channel or North Sea would have the same result, that is Miserable Failure
kham_coc
Banned
It doesn't need to - It's just that the second that Germany gives up on Africa and instead incorporates Flanders into the Reich, the UK has suffered a strategic reversal greatly exceeding the value or threat of German African possessions. Because that's the math - What is the UK willing to pay to get Germany away from the strategic channel ports (and in principle, the French Atlantic ports).
There is also the light strategy that would render the channel untenable to the UK internal domestic transport network, which would be bad.
A New Order? (July-August 1918)
A New Order?
July-August 1918
The initial reaction of France throwing in the towel was felt differently across the world.
The Belgian King Albert announced in the most ‘I told you so’ manner on July 2nd that his fears of German victory had been correct all along, blamed the French for having not continued the fight in a fit of rage given he had done so despite 95% of his country being occupied, and announced he would seek an armistice with Germany immediately.
In Britain meanwhile riots erupted in socialist heartlands such as Glasgow and Manchester, but more concerningly rioting by veterans and right wing conservatives also broke out in London and towns like Dover. While none of this unrest amounted to anything, it set a mood in the country that prompted Bonar Law to make clear that Britain did not consider herself defeated, and that Britain would dictate terms of a peace between Germany and France even if they were not at the negotiating table.
In the United States, former President Teddy Roosevelt would use a speech to lambast President Wilson for his ‘naive hope’ that the United States would not need to enter the war, delaying intervention by years and leaving France doomed to its fate. In a speech many considered the start of a planned Presidential run in 1920, he even went so far as to quote his son Quentin Roosevelt. Quoting a letter to his father dated July 10th, he told crowds “it is my firm belief that had we come here just six months earlier, the French people would have carried their banner, and ours, all the way to Berlin by 1919”.
While the governments of Balkan states reeled and German, Austrian and Bulgarian citizens celebrated, nowhere was the armistice felt more than in Italy.
The country had struggled with the decision to enter the war in the first place, and while she was finally seeing success on their frontline with Austria, many recognized that it was just a matter of time before German troops were freed up from the front with France to come and prevent their advances. This created a sense of urgency that forced Italian Army commander Armando Diaz to act.
The Battle of Portogruaro
Having gradually prepared his forces for an advance, aware that one may soon be necessary to prevent Italy being forced into an armistice while still occupied, Diaz ordered on July 20th that an attack take place across the line. The timing of the attack was slightly controversial, as it took place both on a Sunday - nominally a day of rest among Catholics, and while Austrian troops were taking evening prayers. Despite this minor sin though, the timing was chosen to try and maximise the element of surprise and, while this likely had little to no impact, ultimately the attack proved a success.
The Italian Tenth Army (Lambart) under British command, and the Third Army (Duke of Aosta) broke through the weakened, flu stricken and starved units of the Austrian Fifth Army (Boroević), quickly advancing towards the town of Portogruaro before pivoting north to the town of San Vito in order to cut off Austrian supply routes.
Despite the surprise and aggression of the attack though, the Austrian Army was able to redeploy forces from the Sixth Army (Schönburg-Hartenstein) whose commander had been on the job just five days before the attack. Schönburg-Hartenstein successfully halted the Italian advance on San Vito, leaving a weakened but still existing Austrian 5th Army to withdraw behind the Tagliamento river while the Sixth army prevented an Italian breakthrough towards Pordenone before withdrawing east towards Udine.
In Südtirol, Austrian troops were hit hard by the Italian Seventh, First and Sixth armies, driving back the Tenth and Eleventh Armies under Archduke Joseph towards the town of Lavis, but thanks to the difficult terrain of Southern Tyrol, Italian forces failed to surround the Tenth Army and thus the advance was soon halted near the towns of Male, Egna and Cavalese.
In the east Austria had less luck though, with Boroević and Schönburg-Hartenstein’s forces being stretched thin and driven back for over a week to the towns of Montefalcone and Gemona respectively. This meant that for the first time since the disastrous Battle of Caporetto Italian forces not only had liberated most of Italian occupied territory - but also had occupied a small amount of Austrian territory.
That, for Prime Minister Vittorio Emanuele Orlando, was satisfactory to begin discussions with the Central Powers.
Redrawing the Map
Negotiations with the German and Austrian Governments began on July 21st. Satisfied with the initial results of the Battle of Portogruaro, Prime Minister Orlando was determined that Italy be given the maximum possible image of strength during talks over the future. This he succeeded in doing - but ironically Italy presented too great of a threat for German interests.
Talks immediately stagnated, and instead Hindenberg dispatched the experienced 17th Army (von Below) to end the Italian advance on July 22nd.
Arriving to a chaotic withdrawal of Austrian forces, von Below immediately halted Italian forces at Gorizia before joining with General der Infanterie Robert Kosch’s 52nd Corps from Romania and taking command of Boroević’s weakened Sixth army. Establishing a defence line, further forces were also ordered deployed from the western front to prevent further Italian advances and even prepare a counter offensive if needed, thanks to the rapid drawdown of French strength and the exit of the BEF from France by July 14th.
Under this pretext Italy had two choices. Either it could attempt to resurrect their formerly good relations with Germany, as firmly advocated by former Prime Minister Giovanni Giolitti who had negotiated the Triple Alliance prior to the War. Or alternatively Italy could dig in it’s heels, and demand territorial concessions in exchange for immediate peace - threatening a longer war with Austria that might just destroy the country.
The latter proposal had initially been Orlando’s aim, pinning his hopes on a continued Italian advance into the Carso Plateau and Istria, but the halting of Italian forces by the Germans threatened this strategy. Whatsmore, while Italian troops were more than happy to liberate Italian speaking citizens from the Empire, the prospect of a longer conflict for your average peasant soldier which made up 90% of Italy’s armed forces in territories of different nationalities was deeply unattractive.
Worse still, Germany now had a longer term vision on its mind. Seeking to ensure their southern flank remained stable against revolution and economic uncertainty, Germany was unwilling to open the pandora’s box of political chaos that would take place if Austria visibly lost the war to Italy. Thus German negotiators offered this; a status quo peace, with some minor border adjustments in South Tyrol, or a continued war that would see German forces attack again within the next two months.
For Italy this was extremely daunting. Social unrest at home, particularly in the country’s industrial and agricultural heartlands, threatened to undo all of their progress, and given German success in France had led to French capitulation the cautious Diaz firmly opposed a longer conflict.
Thus on August 2nd Prime Minister Orlando resigned, head held high that he had secured Italy’s territorial integrity, and handed the mantle of power back to Giovanni Giolitti, assuming he would have more luck negotiating with Germany.
The next day Italy sought a negotiated truce in order to agree a peace, refusing to demobilise or withdraw, while expecting the Austrians and Germans not to do so either. Germany would reluctantly agree two days later, and the frontlines for the first time in three years were at a standstill.
Negotiations would begin the next week but if anyone hoped for an easy transition into peace, they would be mistaken. For while Italy had threatened to open Austria-Hungary’s Pandora's box once, they had now inadvertently opened their own.
The Balkans (July 1918)
The Balkans
July 1918
France seeking an armistice did more than just end the war on the western front, it also destroyed allied prospects on the Salonika front. The Allied Army of the Orient, commanded by General Louis Franchet d'Espèrey, included eight French divisions. While there were also six British, ten Serb divisions, ten Greek divisions and two Italian divisions, the immediate recall order of the French forces caused severe damage to the allied line.
While the French of course did not just abandon their front, and their units’ positions were replaced in good time by the Serbs and British, the line was noticeably thinned and the political writing began to scrawl on the walls of Balkan capitals. The fact was, without France, there was no war.
Taking command of the Allied armies in Salonika, General George Milne called for the Allied forces to do what d'Espèrey and his predecessors had been desperate to do before him - to attack. Only by breaking Bulgaria and pushing into Serbia could Britain, its allies and Italy survive the war without France. Finally, after months of hesitation, London consented to the plan.
Organising an attack unnaturally quickly and with only limited forces, Milne aimed to learn from the successful attack on Skra-di-Legen earlier in 1918 to achieve a breakthrough and crush the demoralised Bulgarian army.
Already disheartened and politically divided after the resignation of Bulgarian prime minister Vasil Radoslavov, Bulgaria had secretly been attempting negotiations with the allies over an armistice for months - provided they keep Macedonia. Unfortunately for Britain, now seeing France withdraw, the Bulgarians ceased their attempts to achieve peace. Bulgaria now, emboldened, saw to it to see off the allies and crush the Entente.
Thus when the allies attacked at Dobro Pole on July 7th, the motivated Bulgarians were prepared. More limited in number, the attack proved a disastrous miscalculation by the Entente forces who only managed relatively minor gains at a significant cost. This was largely the consequence of Bulgarian forces actually believing in victory, whereas just months before Bulgarian officers had reported that any Allied attack would almost certainly break the army, something that had never happened before thanks to Bulgaria’s immensely defensible Macedonian frontline.
In Greece the failure to break through proved too much. A nation split on the idea of entering the war between a pro-German King Constantine and a pro-Entente Prime Minister Venizelos, they had only joined the war on the back of a romantic nationalism. Now, with an offensive failed and nothing but casualties and destruction achieved, for many Greeks this proved too much.
Protests in Athens erupted spontaneously against the war on July 19th. A bizarre combination of Monarchists, joined by Communists and pacifists demanded the end of the conflict and a Greek peace with honour. Over the subsequent week protests grew, but ultimately did not achieve anything. This changed on July 26th when deputy chief of the general staff Georgios Leonardopoulos executed a coup against the Venizelos Government.
Armed with just a few hundred men, the coup succeeded in capturing the Government quarter before calling on the still present Epistratoi forces to support the coup in old Greece. Led on the ground by General Panagiotis Gargalidis, Greek Epistratoi rallied and seized much of Attica, Thessaly and the Peloponnese. The respected Conservative politician Dimitrios Rallis immediately formed a Government in collaboration with the putschists, and invited King Constantine to return to the throne.
While not even in Greece, living in Switzerland where he had been in exile along with a collection of Greek royalists and his German army trained son and heir George, Constantine made haste to return to Greece to lead the state. Faced with a hostile Government in Athens, and rapidly losing the will to fight, Venizelos and his loyalist officers did initially attempt to reverse the coup which quickly took hold of most of Greece.
Trapped in Thessaloniki, the Venizelist officers stationed along the frontline with Bulgaria faced the prospect of either fighting to reconquer their country from an angry populace, or surrender. While officers such as Georgios Kondylis attempted to launch an effective counter attack from the new provinces, Bulgarian pressure on the northern line and a “march for victory” offensive towards Thessaloniki by Bulgarian General Ivan Lukov prompted the collapse of the assault and the rapid dissolution of the Venizelist front.
Venizelos himself evacuated Thessaloniki in the face of Greek forces switching sides to the putschists, fleeing with a cadre of loyalists to Crete where he would remain for some time. Meanwhile the new Greek Government, on instruction from King Constantine, immediately sought an armistice with Germany. In doing so, the Greeks drove out the last home of the Serbian Army who now began ‘the flight’ to Albania; a march of approximately 300km.
While British forces would remain and defend Thessaloniki and southern Macedonia for the rest of the month as Venizelist forces evacuated, the front was essentially defeated with the loss of Greece, and Albania and what remained of the Serbian Army sued for an armistice on August 1st.