To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory

[Angmar]

That's a good point. However, we must remember that even in this timeline, Germany is not so popular and has many friends internationally. Especially if the UK and the US continue to treat it with suspicion.
Austria Hungary may collapse, Italy is in civil war and Russia is Soviet.
Turkey is also finished and France is broke.
There are really only the small countries on the periphery which Germany can have except for China.
Germany supports China because it is one of the last free countries with potential and to shift the attention of the US and UK to things outside Europe.

In addition, they can make good money in China and they need it urgently.

 

[PeytonTucker]

That's a good point. However, we must remember that even in this timeline, Germany is not so popular and has many friends internationally. Especially if the UK and the US continue to treat it with suspicion.
Austria Hungary may collapse, Italy is in civil war and Russia is Soviet.
Turkey is also finished and France is broke.
There are really only the small countries on the periphery which Germany can have except for China.
Germany supports China because it is one of the last free countries with potential and to shift the attention of the US and UK to things outside Europe.

In addition, they can make good money in China and they need it urgently.

Yeah if the Germans and the western powers cannot come to any sort of understanding in the post-war years, and tensions remain perpetually high, China is going to be one of the only real allies Germany can get. Austria-Hungary, even if they don’t collapse, are surrounded by the German sphere, and their performance in the last war is not going to make the Germans overly optimistic. The Bulgarians have really taken all that they can in the balkans, what else can they grab? Thrace? Not overwhelmingly important in the long run geopolitically for Germany, even counting the straights. The Turks were stabbed in the back by the Germans and will likely be hesitant to enter a war for them again. If the Anglo-American alliance can adequately answer the Japan question without dropping Japan, it will likely be a race between Germany and the USSR to see who can grab an allied China, if the Anglo-American alliance drops Japan then it’ll likely be a race between the USSR and the US for an allied China. Regardless, in the *next* phase of global relations, China will be an important factor. Germany, if still isolated from the western powers, and with the soviets breathing down their neck, will feel almost completely isolated, with only puppets and second tier powers as “allies,” the German government will try to rectify this if at all possible. This is why I think they’d hopefully try to woo the British and Americans with contracts in the east (it would only help industrialize those puppets faster as well) but if that fails, China starts looking more and more like a matter of national security for Germany.

 

[Athelstane]

But it should be remembered that Germany isn't defeated ITTL like it was IOTL, so they might not support KMT China as much as they did IOTL.

Sure. It's a little hard to say, and I admit up front that that the interwar Sino-German relationship is not an area of any close study for me.

Germany is victorious and she has a big Mitteleuropa to run now. But her economy is a wreck, and she has to rebuild trade networks abroad, especially for raw materials she can't easily get in Europe. China is one of the few places that isn't squarely in some other power's sphere of control or influence. In OTL it was the KMT that turned first to Germany; and that could well happen here to, for more or less the same reasons.

In the alternative, where Germany doesn't jump deeply into China, it still may well be the case that larger British and U.S. navies and a continuing Anglo-Japanese Alliance may be enough...well, not to keep Japan out of Manchuria, but probably out of China, at least for the most part. That said, a collapse of British India could throw all that up in the air.

Also it is worth pondering what kind of foriegn interventions we are going to see in the Russian Civil War in this timeline - and more specifically, whether the Japanese ever withdraw from the Russian Far East.

 

[Athelstane]

All of the above brilliant speculation really shows how TheReformer has struck a gold mine with his use of a totally-last-minute POD for German victory in The Great War.

It's intriguing, because almost all the German WW1 victory scenarios we see around here (or anywhere) are early war point of departure scenarios.

A Germany that wins via the 1918 spring offensives creates a considerably different set of circumstances!

 

[Belka DNW]

The industrial butterflies too, how would the german military industry develop without the sanctions imposed by Versailles, will GM still end up buying Opel? No nazis means no Volkswagen, at least not under this name and circustances. Colonial development in resource extraction.

 

[Ambusher11]

Sure. It's a little hard to say, and I admit up front that that the interwar Sino-German relationship is not an area of any close study for me.

Germany is victorious and she has a big Mitteleuropa to run now. But her economy is a wreck, and she has to rebuild trade networks abroad, especially for raw materials she can't easily get in Europe. China is one of the few places that isn't squarely in some other power's sphere of control or influence. In OTL it was the KMT that turned first to Germany; and that could well happen here to, for more or less the same reasons.

In the alternative, where Germany doesn't jump deeply into China, it still may well be the case that larger British and U.S. navies and a continuing Anglo-Japanese Alliance may be enough...well, not to keep Japan out of Manchuria, but probably out of China, at least for the most part. That said, a collapse of British India could throw all that up in the air.

Also it is worth pondering what kind of foriegn interventions we are going to see in the Russian Civil War in this timeline - and more specifically, whether the Japanese ever withdraw from the Russian Far East.

Speaking of Japan, if the Anglo-Japanese Alliance is still denounced by Britain like IOTL, would the Japanese turn to Germany, or would they not do so (at least initially)? IOTL, they had a pro-French tendency until 1933.

 

[Athelstane]

Speaking of Japan, if the Anglo-Japanese Alliance is still denounced by Britain like IOTL, would the Japanese turn to Germany, or would they not do so (at least initially)? IOTL, they had a pro-French tendency until 1933.

I suppose we need to clarify what we mean by "turn to." Some kind of special trade agreement? Military tech assistance?

If it's a formal alliance treaty, that would be about as big of a "F** You" to Britain as they could manage short of blowing up Hong Kong.

But maybe we need to step back and look at just why, when, and in what circumstances, Britain withdraws from the Anglo-Japanese Alliance treaty. That may be important in figuring out how Japanese leadership reacts.

 

[Kylia]

short of blowing up Hong Kong

Heyyyyy, there's an idea for where Germany can drop their first nuke!

 

[PeytonTucker]

I’m quite excited to see what happens in France, even beyond it being one of my favorite European countries. It can’t really challenge German hegemony, it’s doubtful whether they’d even try. But the economy is gonna go through some shit with reparations, repairing war damage, and the loss of the briey-longwy mines. I know it’s a cliche that France losing WWI means communism or fascism, and I’m not fully convinced of that, but French politics is going to be very interesting in the long term.

 

[Kylia]

I'm curious if Monarchism gets a come back. Not all forms of French Monarchism were fascist in this period, From what I understand, and the Republic could be fatally undermined in legitimacy.

I mean, changing governments in response to disaster is France's thing

 

[Athelstane]

I'm curious if Monarchism gets a come back. Not all forms of French Monarchism were fascist in this period, From what I understand, and the Republic could be fatally undermined in legitimacy.

I mean, changing governments in response to disaster is France's thing

Monarchist support (of any house) by the 1910's was rather parlous, so I think some other development would be needed.

But I am willing to predict that the Third Republic ought to be on its way to the undertakers. France has never walked out of a total defeat without a change of regime.

 

[PeytonTucker]

Monarchist support (of any house) by the 1910's was rather parlous, so I think some other development would be needed.

But I am willing to predict that the Third Republic ought to be on its way to the undertakers. France has never walked out of a total defeat without a change of regime.

That’s really the interesting part of it I think. It’s almost a tradition for France to be beaten and then revolt, it’s how the third republic came about in the first place. Like you said, idk if monarchism is feasible at this point in time. Unless possibly a fascist movement pushes their leader as monarch to gain legitimacy. A communist revolution seems the most obvious result in France, but would Britain and Germany tolerate it? If it happens and is put down by foreign intervention, do the French accept that, or does it cement communism as the proper path in the minds of Frenchmen? If Britain and Germany help each other put down a “French Commune” it’s not impossible the French become convinced that the ancient enemy and the younger enemy who just fought a bloody war have stamped out the only thing that could recreate French dominance on the continent. Whether this belief would be reasonable is very very questionable, but that hasn’t stopped revanchist feelings much in the past. Assuming France goes fascist, they aren’t really in a position to storm through Germany and recreate Napoleon’s empire, so it’d be a very different fascism than what we typically think of. OTL fascism used prejudice and national resentment to excuse past losses, and justify future successes, which would be possible without the “undesirables” getting in the way. If France, as it seems to be, is just fundamentally incapable of bending Europe to its heel as Germany was able to do in WWII (at least briefly) would French fascism be a purging of the “undesirable” aspects of the nation just for the sake of it? Would this even be popular without some clear cut “national redemption” that is used to justify the purges in the first place? Furthermore, if communism is at risk of being killed in the cradle by foreign powers, monarchism is past its due date in France, and fascism is seen as almost pointless, what other systemic change could there be in France? I hardly imagine they’d tear down the third republic to replace it with an almost identical government. Ironically the “best” thing for France to do is keep the republic, pledge absolute neutrality with the notable exception of the colonies being threatened, and do their best to convince Germany they have no reason to ever step foot in France again. This, however, is a very not French way of doing things, so to speak.

 

[Shiva]

Monarchist support (of any house) by the 1910's was rather parlous, so I think some other development would be needed.

But I am willing to predict that the Third Republic ought to be on its way to the undertakers. France has never walked out of a total defeat without a change of regime.

In an earlier chapter TheReformer noted that the Third Republic is going to survive, but mostly on inerta since none of the radical forces were large enough to tear it down instantly. But as the years drag on and the Third Republic is going to have to very publicly give into Germany's humiliating demands it's credibility will drain away, leaving it vulnerable to being overthrown at a later date.

 

[PeytonTucker]

In an earlier chapter TheReformer noted that the Third Republic is going to survive, but mostly on inerta since none of the radical forces were large enough to tear it down instantly. But as the years drag on and the Third Republic is going to have to very publicly give into Germany's humiliating demands it's credibility will drain away, leaving it vulnerable to being overthrown at a later date.

I feel like the French government would be smart to go on a “France is an African/Latin American/southeast Asian country” style propaganda campaign real early. The incorporation of Algeria as a part of France “proper” is a good model for this. Obviously it won’t make the empire any easier to administer, possibly even the opposite if it causes the “francification” of the empire to be ramped up to 100, but it could do well to have the French people in France itself fully buy into this idea early. “Germany has Alsace-Lorraine, but have they conquered the Sahara?” Followed by a to-scale map comparing the size of Germany with A-L to France with the empire, not unlike those old “Portugal is not a small country” maps. It’s just propaganda and optics at the end of the day, but the French Republic, especially without any real chance of beating Germany, will need to look as grand and successful as it can to the French people. If the third republic looks to the French like it got turned into the Belgium to Germany’s own France, and the republic just accepted it and went along unbothered, it will lose all popular legitimacy. Focusing, at the very least rhetorically, on the republic’s extensive holdings outside of Europe may be one of few ways for the republic to hold onto any legitimacy at all to the French. Obviously no lands in Africa or Asia or South America will ever be as important to a Frenchman as Alsace-Lorraine, but the French government will essentially be scraping at the bottom of the barrel for mass popular support once WWI transitions from “that thing that just happened” to “that thing that happened a few years ago.” The OP noted that fear of Germany played an important role in the stability of the French state during the peace negotiations, but that won’t be enough to hold the state together in perpetuity. And the traditional third republic propaganda tactic of constantly screaming “we’re going to get Lorraine back!!” is obviously dead in the water.

 

[President Earl Warren]

I feel like the French government would be smart to go on a “France is an African/Latin American/southeast Asian country” style propaganda campaign real early. The incorporation of Algeria as a part of France “proper” is a good model for this. Obviously it won’t make the empire any easier to administer, possibly even the opposite if it causes the “francification” of the empire to be ramped up to 100, but it could do well to have the French people in France itself fully buy into this idea early. “Germany has Alsace-Lorraine, but have they conquered the Sahara?” Followed by a to-scale map comparing the size of Germany with A-L to France with the empire, not unlike those old “Portugal is not a small country” maps. It’s just propaganda and optics at the end of the day, but the French Republic, especially without any real chance of beating Germany, will need to look as grand and successful as it can to the French people. If the third republic looks to the French like it got turned into the Belgium to Germany’s own France, and the republic just accepted it and went along unbothered, it will lose all popular legitimacy. Focusing, at the very least rhetorically, on the republic’s extensive holdings outside of Europe may be one of few ways for the republic to hold onto any legitimacy at all to the French. Obviously no lands in Africa or Asia or South America will ever be as important to a Frenchman as Alsace-Lorraine, but the French government will essentially be scraping at the bottom of the barrel for mass popular support once WWI transitions from “that thing that just happened” to “that thing that happened a few years ago.” The OP noted that fear of Germany played an important role in the stability of the French state during the peace negotiations, but that won’t be enough to hold the state together in perpetuity. And the traditional third republic propaganda tactic of constantly screaming “we’re going to get Lorraine back!!” is obviously dead in the water.

Of course this only buys them trouble in the long term because abandoning the Empire will become politically poison, even more so than OTL. Meaning higher investment in the Empire and more and more sons of France who shall die from Indochina to Mail.

 

[Athelstane]

In an earlier chapter TheReformer noted that the Third Republic is going to survive, but mostly on inerta since none of the radical forces were large enough to tear it down instantly. But as the years drag on and the Third Republic is going to have to very publicly give into Germany's humiliating demands it's credibility will drain away, leaving it vulnerable to being overthrown at a later date.

I forgot about that, but you're right.

I see his reasoning, and it's not out of the bounds of reasonable possibilities. I admit that I'd have torched the Third Republic if it had been my timeline, but the truth is, I have a harder time getting my head around where the French national psyche would be in a scenario like this than I do any other great power's populace. I think this is the kind of thing I shrug off because everything else about the timeline is just so well executed (and he's certainly right that Caillaux's political career is immolated, at least).

The one thing I do know is that when Frenchmen are in doubt - well, in the cities, at any rate - they take to the streets. There will have to be an awful lot of taking to the streets right now. Maybe that doesn't equal "revolution" yet in The Reformer's mind. But God as my witness, I wouldn't be betting on this wrecked shell of a Third Republic seeing out the 1920's without at least some very major house renovation.

 

[Athelstane]

I feel like the French government would be smart to go on a “France is an African/Latin American/southeast Asian country” style propaganda campaign real early.

Organizing some kind of "Latin Bloc" has some natural appeal. The problem is, the other prospective partners have political situations that are even more radioactive than France's!

 

[Kylia]

That’s really the interesting part of it I think. It’s almost a tradition for France to be beaten and then revolt, it’s how the third republic came about in the first place. Like you said, idk if monarchism is feasible at this point in time. Unless possibly a fascist movement pushes their leader as monarch to gain legitimacy. A communist revolution seems the most obvious result in France, but would Britain and Germany tolerate it? If it happens and is put down by foreign intervention, do the French accept that, or does it cement communism as the proper path in the minds of Frenchmen? If Britain and Germany help each other put down a “French Commune” it’s not impossible the French become convinced that the ancient enemy and the younger enemy who just fought a bloody war have stamped out the only thing that could recreate French dominance on the continent. Whether this belief would be reasonable is very very questionable, but that hasn’t stopped revanchist feelings much in the past. Assuming France goes fascist, they aren’t really in a position to storm through Germany and recreate Napoleon’s empire, so it’d be a very different fascism than what we typically think of. OTL fascism used prejudice and national resentment to excuse past losses, and justify future successes, which would be possible without the “undesirables” getting in the way. If France, as it seems to be, is just fundamentally incapable of bending Europe to its heel as Germany was able to do in WWII (at least briefly) would French fascism be a purging of the “undesirable” aspects of the nation just for the sake of it? Would this even be popular without some clear cut “national redemption” that is used to justify the purges in the first place? Furthermore, if communism is at risk of being killed in the cradle by foreign powers, monarchism is past its due date in France, and fascism is seen as almost pointless, what other systemic change could there be in France? I hardly imagine they’d tear down the third republic to replace it with an almost identical government. Ironically the “best” thing for France to do is keep the republic, pledge absolute neutrality with the notable exception of the colonies being threatened, and do their best to convince Germany they have no reason to ever step foot in France again. This, however, is a very not French way of doing things, so to speak.

This makes sense, but equally, if not Monarchism, the only other choices are communists or fascists. I don't know if people would be able to animate themselves enough to do something like rally behind a regime change to... just change the way the republic works? The transition from 4th to 5th republic is not normal, historically - usually, when a Republic is fatally undermined like that, it stops being a republic, rather than changing what kind of republic.

Of course, if the Third Republic limps along because no radical force is powerful enough, that seems like they'll just be a basketcase for a while.

 

[Cylon_Number_14]

TheReformer has kinda implied that in France there is no energy left for revolution. The main nationwide “movement” may be an implacable withdrawal of the vast majority of the public from civic life. Reduced political participation, reduced voter turnout, reduced attendance at town halls, a withdrawal into smaller clannish and familial networks, and a fatalistic and passive view about the outside world. Perhaps less exciting than a revolution, but almost more bleak and depressing.

 

[PeytonTucker]

TheReformer has kinda implied that in France there is no energy left for revolution. The main nationwide “movement” may be an implacable withdrawal of the vast majority of the public from civic life. Reduced political participation, reduced voter turnout, reduced attendance at town halls, a withdrawal into smaller clannish and familial networks, and a fatalistic and passive view about the outside world. Perhaps less exciting than a revolution, but almost more bleak and depressing.

That isn’t entirely unrealistic in the short-term. But idk if the French people, who still remember that they were THE European power for hundreds of years, and once marched armies into Moscow, are going to permanently become “fatalistic.” Wary of challenging Germany again? Of course. Scared to commit to pan-European wars? Probably. Completely dejected and convinced that France is anything other than the greatest country on earth? Absolutely not. There are French people who complain, today, about German “domination” of the continent, and that’s after France won TWO world wars, and Germany stripped of large swathes of territory, much larger than A-L. The third republic will be correct and likely supported to act carefully in Europe, but any French government that acts like France is “finished” or “had their time in the sun, and it’s over now” will be overthrown. The French are to this day, even in the peak of American global hegemony, a very proud people. Any French government that does not act similarly proud of their place in the world will not long be seen as a legitimate government by the people of France. I don’t even think this requires an anti-German revanchist movement, as that will be almost certain to fail, but a France that, permanently, answers every beck and call from Germany or Britain, will likely be seen as little more than a foreign imposed puppet by the French.