Oh well there goes one person who could speed up the creation of an independent air force for Germany. BTW how are things in the home front for Germany? I imagine that the SPD is making some noise like Labour did.
To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory
- Thread starter TheReformer
- Start date
I think it safe to say this TL thoroughly subverts the trope of the idyllic Central Powers Victory right from the get goThanks! I'd reassure you but I feel that would be tooting one's trumpet a little too much. So I'll let @Godwin do it given he knows some of my plans - dramatic enough post war for you Godwin?
There still his brother... goring or this guy too https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermann_von_der_Lieth-Thomsen
I think you got me wrong, I didn't say that I want non-stop action, quite the opposite actually, A Day In July is one of my favorite TL's and last I remember there isn't any big war in that TL so far. What I was talking about is that I see far too many CP victory timelines make the world from Germany victory in WW1 to the modern day be little different, which is something I consider it to be both boring for a reader and unrealistic.Personally, as a reader, I would take plausibility over non-stop action any time in the post 1900 forum. And tbh, we have a rich history of timelines with intriguing post-war political and economic developments, and some of them are even CP victory timelines (like A Day In July; yes, I collaborated with it, but I only did so because I was already in love with the product, so
Kaiserschlacht: The Thrashing of France | The Oise Offensive (June 1918)
The Kaiserschlacht
The Thrashing of France | The Oise Offensive
June 1918
After having battered the French Army in the Aisne offensive, the German High command concluded that the most effective way to end the conflict was to launch a final, large-scale attack directed towards Compiegne between Villers-Cotterets and Maignelay. Their hope, accurate or not, was that this would either crush the already weakened and still recovering French 6th Army (Degoutte) and leave the door open to Paris, or it would force the abandonment of the area around Amiens, allowing Germany to attack the British 4th Army (Peyton) and not only reach the sea but also enter Normandy - and thus shorten their line against the British in the north by bottling them further into Flanders.
The sector chosen for the attack marked almost the entire frontline directly in front of Paris, and more importantly included the vital towns of Crepy en Valois and Longueuil - vital road and rail junctions which would force a significant French Army withdrawal in order to continue a firm defence of their capital - which would overstretch the French line beyond recovery. The optimistic target of the offensive would be the towns of Criel and Clermont, and the advance would be led largely by the Seventh Army (Boehn) and parts of the First Army (Below) along with only four divisions the Eighteenth (von Hutier) who had now since exhausted their entire offensive capacity.
The French meanwhile had incorporated several rapidly deployed American divisions into their lines along the Chateau-Thierry-La Ferte axis, while their entire reserve force had been incorporated into the reconstituted Third Army (Humbert) and the battered Sixth (Degoutte) and Tenth Armies (Maistre). French troops were motivated by the prospect of defending the capital, and while soldiers had made clear they would not in any scenario counter attack they would fight to defend the city. Despite this they were demoralised and exhausted - particularly the Sixth Army. Fighting had been ongoing for weeks, and for the average French soldier the Germans seemed to be constantly pushing them back, and seemed to have endless amounts of men. The rebuilt French Sixth Army (Degoutte) in particular had been so devastated by the Third Battle of the Aisne that many French soldiers had convinced themselves another German push would yield identical results.
The Battle
The German attack initially struggled. Facing against a better prepared French army that had dug in on the path to Paris, the Seventh Army (Boehn) in the Bove-St Leger sector had difficulty making headway but did make some minor breakthroughs towards Clermont, while the First Army (Below) made some progress towards Crepy en Valois but faced fierce resistance from the French Sixth Army.
While the German attack failed initially in completely destroying Entente lines, the attack towards Villers Cotterets by the First Army succeeded in breaking the morale of the French Sixth Army (Degoutte) and prompted a number of demoralised units to flee to more defensive ground near Crepy en Valois. The withdrawal though was haphazard, poorly organised and in many cases not actually even ordered. German forces of the First Army (Below) were by far the least exhausted and still included a large number of stormtroopers, allowing for an aggressive advance that caught exhausted French troops off guard. Quickly pressing the attack on Crepy en Valois, French commanders would note later that Degoutte would be forced to order the strategic withdrawal from the town towards Nanteuil-le-haudouin to create an impression of organisation as these units had, in fact, already fled in disarray.
The withdrawal had knock-on effects further up the line too where, despite his forces being exhausted, the Eighteenth Army under Von Hutier began a minor attack against Maistre's forces between Bove and Orvillers to distract from Boehn’s advance. News of fleeing French divisions south from Crepy en Valois also created a false fear among French forces in and around Compiegne that German forces may surround them, or cut them off from Paris by marching on Criel, prompting a rapid collapse in morale and the abandonment of Compiegne for a defence at Verberie and Le Meux which sat near the Oise river - providing a defensive line to the east.
The capture of Compiegne was a massive success for German forces who, encouraged by their success, pressed on - though by now German offensive capability was largely exhausted. In what Supreme Commander Foch would later label as the 'thrashing of France', German forces began an advance down both banks of the Oise river towards Verberie - and Paris. This prompted panic in the capital when it was shelled for the first time since 1914 by German artillery. News of the loss of Crepy en Valois, just 50km from Paris, also began a mass flight of the city towards the south while ministers and parliamentarians alike began to question whether the situation could be salvaged.
Despite Clemenceau's initial assurance that even with the fall of Paris France would fight on, ironically the German Army had no realistic chance of actually taking the city. In fact, it is almost certain that had France established a new consolidated frontline German forces would have almost certainly halted at the Ourcq and gone no further. They simply didnt have the men, logistical structures or resources. This was because German forces were being butchered by the ‘Spanish’ Flu, and by now almost all of its stormtrooper troops had been killed. Despite this, advances down both banks of the Oise prompted the line north of the Marne to begin to wind up - pushing French forces south of the river and creating a large, pointing salient in front of Nanteuil-le-haudoui - just 40km from Paris.
The abandonment of Crepy en Valois by French troops, many of whom had begun to mutiny by the time the town was abandoned, convinced allied planners that they had been wrong all along and were sure of defeat - none more so than French Commander in Chief Petain. In a moment of naive arrogance wrongly celebrated by some Frenchmen who perceived it as a final attempt to save the country, Petain ultimately detached himself from the allied command structure and ordered that a full withdrawal be enacted to ensure the defence of Paris - abandoning the British and leaving Normandy open.
Ordering the Third Army (Humbert) and all other forces to withdraw to the Therain and Nonette rivers, Petain essentially gave up fifteen kilometres of ground to the elated but exhausted and slow moving German forces in order to establish a new defensive line north of the city. It was an unnecessary and desperate move, but it spoke volumes to the mindset of the French leadership at the time. Worse though was the fact there was no doubt it would have held the Germans - but never was given the chance.
Consequences
For the French Cabinet the withdrawal was the final straw. Despite being an ally of Petain, Clemenceau was gravely weakened by the withdrawal which convinced the majority of Parliament that fighting would have to either go on for at least another two years - if the Americans could bring their troops into battle in time at all before Paris fell. While some of the more determined legislators were happy with fighting to go on at the gates of the city, many were convinced that in just days time the Germans would repeat their march down the Champs D'Elysee, and remembering the chaos of the Paris commune and France's fall in grace after the last war they broke. After cabinet met on June 22nd, Prime Minister Clemenceau resigned. His forces were just too overstretched, the US was just simply not ready, and the British had become too cut off to help.
The ‘lion of France’ had fallen - and a goat would replace him.
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The Piave Offensive (June - July 1918)
The Piave Offensive
June - July 1918
In the spring of 1918 Germany had transferred troops in Italy to the Western Front in preparation for Ludendorff’s spring offensives, leaving Austria alone against Italy. With Romania and Russia out of the war, and with German troops still in the Balkans with the Bulgarians fending off the French, British, Serbs and Greeks, the arrangement made sense - however many remained hesitant to endorse an Austrian offensive.
Having fought now for four years, often hungry and lacking in basic equipment like boots, by 1918 the Austrian army was ill prepared for an attack. At the outset of the war Infantry divisions would often number more than 11,000 men, yet now were barely struggling to maintain 8,000. Further, the Austrian army was lacking horses and fuel, limiting their logistical capacity further as trains began to require repairs and thus the army went hungry.
Yet the Austrian Army could still muster some 1.3mm men, with new conscripts to be trained every day. Even with units at home to quell unrest, and deployed on the Salonika front and in Ukraine, Austria still had 53 divisions available for an action against Italy. Up against a patriotically fervent Italy now restored to 59 divisions and aided by French and British troops though, this would be no walk in the park for Austria.
Despite the risks, Austria decided to go for an offensive with the rapidly declining fortunes of France in June. Withdrawing their forces from Italy to aid the Western front, France left Italy high and dry with only some limited replacement divisions available from Britain to plug the gaps. Yet Austria’s main issue was their commanders’ refusal to coordinate and get along. Marshal Conrad, commanding the northern Trentino half of the line, and Boroevic, commanding the southern Venetian half of the line, insisted that they should lead the offensive. Yet somehow in the end the resolution to the disagreement ended up worse. Archduke Josef instead resolved that both commanders could launch their own independent attacks, creating a chaotic and ill coordinated plan.
This was made worse with the delayed intended start of the attack. Aiming to launch on May 20th, the planned attack failed to begin until June 15th, allowing the Italians ample time to prepare and further strengthen their already strong positions they had fallen back to the Piave in 1917.
The Offensive
Launching diversionary attacks at the Tonale pass on June 13th, the Austrians launched their twin offensive on the 15th. With Borovic’s forces driving towards Padua and Conrad’s forces pushing on Verona, the Austrians aimed to conquer much of what was left of Venetia.
Conrad’s Eleventh Army (Scheuchenstuel) struck hard against the Italian Sixth (Montuori) and Fourth (Giardino) armies, but made little to no gains in the immediate term and were soon halted by the well prepared Italians. For Conrad, the attack was over within days. Meanwhile Borovic’s Isonzo Army (von Wurm) and the Sixth Army (Archduke Josef) ploughed into the Italian Eighth (Caviglia) and Third (Duke of Aosta) armies. Here, the Austrians met some limited success when their forces successfully crossed the Piave and established a bridgehead near Fossalta.
In a cruel turn though, bad weather soon set in and flooded the Piave, widening it’s banks and cutting off Austrian supply lines, which soon fell under attack of Italian aircraft, destroying whatever survived. Able to reinforce through lateral reinforcement lines built by Italian commander Diaz, the Austrian offensive quickly fell apart and was all but over by June 20th.
Italian Counterattack
Facing defeat in France and sensing that Italy’s chance at ‘glory’ may soon fade, Diaz ordered preparations for a counter attack immediately, deploying the reserve Ninth Army for an attack against Borovic’s Isonzo Army.
Battered by the failed attack and having not yet fully withdrawn, the Italians launched their counter-offensive towards the town of Vittorio Veneto on June 23rd. Catching the Austrian troops who were preparing to evacuate during that night off guard, the Italian force crushed several divisions in the first hours of the attack and tore a hole between the towns of Zenson and Ponte di Piave within the first two days of the attack.
While intentionally limiting his advances, Diaz’s attack demonstrated the fallibility of the Austrian army who began to collapse in the face of motivated Italian advances. Lacking supplies and disorganised after their own offensive, Borovic’s forces broke and withdrew behind the river Livenza within a week, and by July 5th Italian forces had scored a crucial morale victory over the Austrians.
Glad to the see that this is not going to be a Germans take Paris in 1918 TL. I am guessing Caillaux will become PM and soon begin negotiating an end to the war. I am go to bring up Belgium again. By 1918 in OTL it wasn't just King Albert who wanted a negotiated settlement. The divergences in your TL really should be forging a Belgian consensus for immediate negotiations.
ok, i admit that i wasn't expect the italian trashing A-H at this stage, nevertheless it seem that out of all the entente negotiation wise it's Italy the one in a better position while the Hapsburg Empire is hardly in a good place, they are already a whole owned subsidiary of the German Empire and now they have been dealt a defeat like Caporetto quickly losing the gained terrain.
Germany can look at the situation with a lot of concern, such italian victory in the south and the apparent destruction of the K.u.K. forces in the theatre can leave Bavaria open to a possible attack (yeah hardly possible but even if meager it will be a possibility that the German high command will be forced to ponder) and give the rest of the Entente hope for victory
Germany can look at the situation with a lot of concern, such italian victory in the south and the apparent destruction of the K.u.K. forces in the theatre can leave Bavaria open to a possible attack (yeah hardly possible but even if meager it will be a possibility that the German high command will be forced to ponder) and give the rest of the Entente hope for victory
kham_coc
Banned
Not really - Because to take it is either to engage in Parisgrad (which you know, they wouldn't do, and the French would give up) or, to surround it, which is just beyond any version of Germany that late in the war, and of course, the reality is once short range Artillery can range Paris, the French are going to give up.
So the reality is, French resistance will cease before that is a realistic prospect.
To have German troops in Paris in ww1 either requires some sort of Versailles style humiliation treaty where that is a clause, or Germany assaulting the city in 1914 or maybe 15 - but realistically speaking any later and France will simply throw in the towel before Germany gets there.
The only thing the multiverse hates more then modern Italy winning is Austria-Hungary winning
So the battles of the piave River turn it a vittorio-vento style battle but months earlier then otl. Holy shit I feel bad for the Austro-hungarians. This is likely followed by the next few months of poundings by the Italians as the Germans watch. unless armistice is signed soon and even then it's just problems all over especially as from your description the Germans aren't in any real position to bail the Austrians out. I do find it hilarious though that otl Italy's performance gets a certain rap which here will be flipped just by virtue of how italy is really the only entente nation to walk away with stuff. And it also has the added benefit and fascinating consequence of strangling the idea of the mutilated victory in its crib. If anything it becomes a bit of a point of pride. Overall very fascinating consequences.
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This is a good point. We could see a interesting reversal of OTL, where rather than Italy being the bitter one, it's Britain and France that are bitter. However, it's more likely that a "stab in the back" myth develops in Britain/France (More likely France) than a mutilated victory.
I've never seen a German WW1 Victory Timeline where Italy manages to get relatively scot free and I agree with you in thinking that this timeline will head in that direction.
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I would agree and say I also would be incredibly suprised and disappointed if he wasn't going in that direction.
There's no way Italy gets off entirely scott free. They were on the losing side. No matter what, Italy is going to suffer in some way, even if probably in minor ways.
I'm fascinated to see how Italy leverages this late-game success against the Austrians. I'm not sure they lose anything, insofar as Austria is weak and Germany is gonna be busy trying to extract their pound of Franco-Belgian flesh without the Anglo powers deciding to stay on and fight. Could they finagle their way into some minor consolation prizes from the Greeks, or perhaps in Africa or elsewhere?
Certainly they're going to feel less shit than the French, whose 40 years in the revanche desert have led them not to the Promised Lorraine but instead into the horrors of having the Western Front fought on their soil (although at least they ain't the Belgians!) And Britain, while not having the devastation to their own metropole, nonetheless will have to reckon with the psychology of defeat and issues from both their workers and the Irish.
The postwar world settlement really intrigues me. Germany will be high on victory, but both the Austrians and the Turks are dealing with problems that won't be simply solved with said victory. Not to mention the settlement in the east -- Lenin may have ridden a German train, but who knows if Voroshilov's echelon locomotive will be pulling into history's station this time around?
Certainly they're going to feel less shit than the French, whose 40 years in the revanche desert have led them not to the Promised Lorraine but instead into the horrors of having the Western Front fought on their soil (although at least they ain't the Belgians!) And Britain, while not having the devastation to their own metropole, nonetheless will have to reckon with the psychology of defeat and issues from both their workers and the Irish.
The postwar world settlement really intrigues me. Germany will be high on victory, but both the Austrians and the Turks are dealing with problems that won't be simply solved with said victory. Not to mention the settlement in the east -- Lenin may have ridden a German train, but who knows if Voroshilov's echelon locomotive will be pulling into history's station this time around?
How France moves forward from this going to be interesting to see. On the one hand you'll have some who'll go even more revanchist and baying for a shot at round 3.
On the other hand, from the French perspective, there'll be people who believe they've blown their best shot at taking down Germany. If the France of 1914, with the help of Britian, Russia, and later America couldn't defeat Germany, then the France of 1918 and the years to come certainly won't either. There might even be some circles calling for a detente and cooperation with Germany, and to take a path not unlike what OTL post-WW2 Germany took, embracing pan-Europeanism
However things turn out, there's going to be a lot of soul-searching and "vigorous" political debate over where to go from here, like in Spain after the Spanish-American war.
On the other hand, from the French perspective, there'll be people who believe they've blown their best shot at taking down Germany. If the France of 1914, with the help of Britian, Russia, and later America couldn't defeat Germany, then the France of 1918 and the years to come certainly won't either. There might even be some circles calling for a detente and cooperation with Germany, and to take a path not unlike what OTL post-WW2 Germany took, embracing pan-Europeanism
However things turn out, there's going to be a lot of soul-searching and "vigorous" political debate over where to go from here, like in Spain after the Spanish-American war.
I did say relatively scot free, as in comparison to other continental Entente members, like France or Russia. Of course Italy isn't going to get off completely scot free, but they will get a much lighter treatment due to Germany being exhausted.