To have and have not: Spain 1975-1982

It seems that voters rejected strongly the revolution by punishing PCE (who was not involved and is paying for being far left).
I'm surprised the PSOE and AP got decent results after the whole situation (PSOE being unfairly seen as the main responsible, and the AP as being silent).
 
The PCE was, indeed, punished (you can easily imagine that among the thousands of victims of the white terror during the Revolution you can find many PCE voters; BTW, IOTL it wasn't better in 1982), and the PSOE even won more votes than in TL 1979 elections, which may look surprising, bearing in mind their actions during the Revolution and the Puerta affair.

However, they have a quite mythical figure, Enrique Tierno Galván, leading the party and that may be giving them an extra chance...

Well, time will tell.

AP can boast that, for the third time in a row, they keep increasing the votes received. Perhaps the main trouble for AP (Fraga) has been removed and, this, along with the polls pointing at UCD sinking and the PSOE rising may had caused some voters to rush to vote AP to avoid the "red danger".
 


44: "That won't do": September, 1981 - November 1982

The General Elections of September'81 were to become the model for a decade of unstable politics of the Republic. Some of the faults of the Third Spanish Republic were already there, as the "presidente sin corona" (uncrowned president): the figure of the Presidente de la República (President of the Republic) was frequently considered as an attempt to replace the kings with a similarly strong institution.

The problem was that the article 98 of the Constitution gave the President power to "take all necessary steps" if there was an emergency, and it was often used in the 1990s to issue decrees without the support of Parliament, as the text of the Article did not precisely define the kind of emergency that would justify its use. However, the Parliament had the power to nullify those emergency decree by simple majority action; if the Parliament nullified the decree, the President could, under Article 99, dissolve the Parliament and call for new elections within 60 days.

The other problem that became painfully obvious in 1981 was fragmentation of the vote into too many parties and, therefore, a divided and weak Parliament, as it was almost impossible to establish a majority government. Even worse, the fragmented structure of the voting system shaped the electoral process and helped the anti-system parties of both sides, leading to high levels of party fractionalism and government instability. The difficult economic conditions of those years favoured the radicalization of the voters, too.

This fragmentation was clearly seen in September 1981 when the PSOE found itself unable to form a govern because of the lack of allies and the mutual hatred and mistrust between them and the PIS and the PCE. This all led to Adolfo Suárez becoming, again, prime minister with a quite curious coalition government, as it united the CDS with the social-liberal PDE (a left wing party) and the national-liberal PPE (a right wing party). Thus, Spain had a Socialist president, a Centrist prime minister and a divided parliament.

This coalition government was to last until November 1982. One of its most remembered measures was an increase in the unemployment benefit of an average 40%. Suárez was also quite active in diplomatic relations and very active in improving relations with France and the Arab world. Amazingly, he and the French Prime Minister, the Socialist François Mitterrand, ended up developing grudingly a mutual friendship. Suárez also adopted a tough, uncompromising line with ETA, which led the terrorist band to qualify Suárez of "a fascist thug disguised with a Phrygian cap". Suárez simply stated to the press: "Eso no les va a funcionar" ("That won't do"). Those simple words became a famous catchphrase along with the already famous "puedo prometer y prometo" ("I can promise, and I do promise...") .

Suárez, pressed by his Leftish allies, pursued expansionary monetary and fiscal policies during this tenure. Between 1981 and 1984, his administration pursued such policies in an effort to reduce unemployment. These were moderately successful, as the fiscal measures introduced after 1982, with reductions in income and wealth taxes and an increase in the medium-term public investment programme, were estimated to have created 50,000 additional jobs in 1981–82, or 100,000 if additional public sector employment was included in the figure. This small fall in the unemployment rate, however, was achieved at the cost of a larger budget deficit (which doubled itself in two years), brought about by fiscal expansion.

A weak point of the government were the constant disputes of the CDS ministers with their PPE counterparts over unemployment benefits. In the end, they toppled the Coalition government and, in November 1982, Suárez surprised the world when he annouced a change in the composition of the government, that was to include the PSOE and left out the PPE.
 
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45: Shades of Grey: September, 1981 - November 1982

The presence of the Multinational Force in Catalonia and the question of the loans caused the first crisis of the third Suarez cabinet, becoming, eventually, a poisonous issue in the Spanish politics of the 1980s.

Ronald Reagan had not given a blank check to the Spanish government. His help had a political price and the first installment of it had been paid when Spain had applied for its incorporation to the NATO. Reagan nurtured closer ties to new Spanish democracy: In response to what the Reagan administration perceiverd as a failed "Communist" takeover of Spain, Washington decided to take care of the peacefully transition to democracy. Thus, economical help was followed by frequent visits by high-level U.S. officials that helped reaffirm Washington’s solidarity with Madrid. Renegotiations of U.S. rights to use military bases in Spain further underlined the strengthened relationship between Spain and the United States.

Thus, Spain became a topic of confrontation between US Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger and US Secretary of State George Shultz. While the latter believed that agreements would enhance U.S. security, the former thought that only by keeping a close watch of the Spanish events would the United States be safe (notice that neither Weinberger nor Schultz worried themselves too much about the welfare of Spain; of course, it was not their problem). Reagan seldom intervened to resolve such disputes, yet he shared Shultz’s enthusiasm for establishing a dialogue with Madrid.

Anyway, the US influence was resented by some Spaniards (Left or Right-minded people, never mind that) who were afraid that the United States were trying to turn Spain into a huge US base or, even worse, a US colony.

This feeling was enhanced by the Multinational Force and the loan questions By early 1982, the Spanish defaults on returning the loans had grown so regular (6 defaults in the last 12 months) that a crisis ensued; France pressed to force Spain to pay, while London urged a lowering of the payments. Then, just a few weeks of starting his new term, Suárez was forced to devaulate the peseta an 8%. Paris believed that Madird had defaulted deliberately as a way of testing their will to force Spain to fulfill its compromises. Paris then contemplated increasing its military presence in Catalonia as a way to press Madrid to pay. Ironically, Miterrand was deeply reluctant to order that military build-up as he hoped for joint economic sanctions against Spain would be enough.

Then, Thatcher, very politely, reminded Mitterrand of the consequences of the French occupation of the Ruhr in 1923. Of course, the French Premier agreed to consider some other ways to solve the crisis. However, the damage had been done as the Spanish population had grown weary of the French build-up. Thus, the Multanational Force became from then on, like Gibraltar, a living insult to the national pride.

Meanwhile, the problem remained unsolved. The payment question forestalled the freedom of action of the Spanish government, and as most Spaniards were not well-informed of the situation, there was a growing feeling that there was an international conspiracy against the country. This issue, along with the already mentioned disputes over unemployment benefits, put a heavy strain on the government coalition, with the PPE arguing that they could not support the Foreign policies any longer. By late October 1982 there were rumours that Washington and London were about to present a new payments schedule in connection with new measures to avoid new defaults. On 4 November the cabinet decided to resign. It was succeeded on 10 November by the CDS-PSOE government, still with Suárez at the front, a Suárez that was beginning to grown tired of the responsability placed upon his shoulders.

The new cabinet was based on the coalition of the PSOE, the CDS and the Partido Demócrata Español (Spanish Democratic Party, PDE), which retained Pedro Solbes as the Economic Affairs Minister. (1)

(1) Solbes would change sides in 1985, joining then the PSOE. In 1990, the PDE would merge into the Partido del Estado Español (The Spanish State Party, PEE), a center-left party,
 
This means the original PEE had moderated even further by 1990.

The PEE, if I have the time to develop its little story, will be a small party that will have an "interesting" time as the merger of the social liberalism of the PDE with the nationalist corporatism of the neo/pseudo Falangist of the original PEE.

When (or if) we came to the 1990s, you'll see what happens with this contradiction of having some social-liberals joining hands with the far-right.

It goes without saying that I have plans for the future development of the Spanish far-right parties
 
It's ironic that have to be a British Premier which have to warn to her French counterpart about the similarities and potential dangers of the current situation, with the French occupation of the Ruhr !


Looking at the situation from the positive side the presence of troops of the multinational force, which it must be supplied in their basic needs by local traders and entrepreneurs who would receive their payments in hard currency ... I think it will be beneficial for regional economy and indirectly the Spanish in general.

Not to mention that may eventually be the source from which tourism is restarted to not only the Spanish Mediterranean coast but to the rest of the region.

Another aspect that can be a source of conflict is the inevitable relationships and personal loss conflicts of foreign soldiers with local ... which in a politically charged atmosphere can reach beyond the personal sphere and become conflicts and / or public disturbances and other more headache for the government and a source of political tension more with the troops of the countries that are integrating the MNF.


Finally I think the Spanish emigration had increased about OTL ... but the chosen destinations are the same or diverge?

The autonomists / nationalist parties will have a performance and a similar influence to that of OTL, in the Spanish political scene or because of the circumstances: will be biggest and most influential or just the opposite?
 
I went for the ironic situation of having Thatcher lecturing Mitterand because, knowing the two tof them, the whole event would have been the funnniest to see, I must admit.

Indeed, the presence of foreign troops is good for the traders... but it helps to increase the inflaction, as they had no problems to pay in hard currency and traders et al are more than eager to sell,,, and to raise the prices.

Indeed. As the situation is back to normal, Spain looks even better for tourist. In addition,with the peseta deflated, it's even cheaper!

I suppose that the emigration has taken the usual destinations. In OTL, from 1974 to 1980, 253,480 Spaniards emigrated. With the crisis of 1979-1980, perhaps you could have a lot more doing that, specially in those areas afected by violence (that take place in some places and in other didn't, and not at the same time, remember that), as for instance in Catalonia during the revolutionary days, when you have those who ran away from the "reds" and then those who did the same from the "blues". However, as soon as the situaton normalized itself, some of those emigrants (refugees could be in this case a better word) would return, that's sure. With the still unstable economy, the emigration will be as in OTL, slightly higher, but not much.

The autonomists / nationalist parties are going to have a similar role in this Spain as they had IOTL. I have plans for CiU, but I have still to make my mind about the PNV and do some more research.
 


46: Politics makes strange bedfellows: November 5th-11th, 1982

The new cabinet faced at once what became known as the "London Ultimatum", issued November 5. It demanded that by November 11 the Spanish government accepted the new schedule for the payment of the loans; also, it had punctually to comply with the reform of the armed forces, according to what to the treaty signed on April 1980 and, finally, to initiate trials of war criminals. In the case of non-compliance, financial sanctions in the form of a levy on Spanish exports would follow shortly.

It took the Spanish parties until 10 november to decide on their positions towards this ultimatum. The PIS, PSOE and CDS favoured acceptance. The PDE was split and left the decision to its delegates in the Parliament and AP was dead set against it. Attempts by the PSOE to win the PIS for a coalition failed because the latter refused to cooperate with neither them or the CDS. Suárez, on his part, was readier than the PSOE to accept the stipulations of the ultimatum, as he knew too well what would came if it was not followed, and tried to form a government including both the PPE and the PSOE, even AP, in an effort to make a "National coalition Government". However, a consensus proved impossible in the end. Among those discussed as possible prime ministers were Enrique Tierno Galván (PSOE) and Suárez (CDS), who was finall sworn, again, as the primer minister of the Third Republic.

On the evening of November 10, Suárez was able to present his new (if incomplete) cabinet. The Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Finance were still vacant, temporarily led by Fernando Morán (PSOE) and Juan Antonio García (CDS). Suárez then issued a government statement, endorsing acceptance of the ultimatum and the parlament voted 220 to 129 (one abstention) for the ultimatum. In the night of 10/11 November, a note stating acceptance signed by Suárez went out to London, Paris and Washington.

The government was based on parties that had a majority in the Parliament and the Senate. In any case, the ultimatum gave to the government the support of the PIS, who promised to be loyal to Suárez in this particular matter. On the right, some AP and PPE delegates had indeed voted against accepted the ultimatum and the far-right was still smarting from the "war criminals" clause of the ultimatum.

Thus 1982 was closed.
 
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Well, my dear readers, thus this TL come to its end. I never thought it would end this way when I started, I must confess (in fact, I doubted if I would be able to finish it, ever), but I'm very glad of how it has turned out to be and of your reception of this "little" tale.

As soon as possible I'll start dealing with the second part. More or less I have decided what is going to come next, but I'm still a bit unsure about the time frame. Anyway, in a few days you'll will be reading it.

Thanks a lot for reading and commeting this, my dear fellows.
 
Well, my dear readers, thus this TL come to its end. I never thought it would end this way when I started, I must confess (in fact, I doubted if I would be able to finish it, ever), but I'm very glad of how it has turned out to be and of your reception of this "little" tale.

As soon as possible I'll start dealing with the second part. More or less I have decided what is going to come next, but I'm still a bit unsure about the time frame. Anyway, in a few days you'll will be reading it.

Thanks a lot for reading and commenting this, my dear fellows.

I must say this is one of the most interesting TL on modern Spain.

In particular I was interested and welcome your choice and treatment of the figure of Suarez.

I must say that have been some of the hours of reading, better used and commenting well used in this TL that is coming to the end. :D

I'll be tuned to see, when you can publish a sequel... :)



-I take this opportunity to make the following observations / suggestions on the subject:


Ever would have to make a single thread to discuss exclusively on the various possible pods, located at the end of Francoism and in the transition to democracy... because the book that is circulating a few years ago with a series of essays ... the truth does not meet a minimum threshold ... at least for me.

http://www.edicionesb.com/catalogo/libro/la-historia-de-espana-que-no-pudo-ser_887.html

Besides which as usual it has not been translated into English, at least to my knowledge. :confused:
 
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Goldstein

Banned
That was a quite nice ride. I don't know what comes after 1982, but as IOTL, it could have been much worse.

It's a minor detail, I know, but might I ask which flag does the Third Spanish Republic use?
 
I must say this is one of the most interesting TL on modern Spain.

In particular I was interested and welcome your choice and treatment of the figure of Suarez.

I must say that have been some of the hours of reading, better used and commenting well used in this TL that is coming to the end. :D

I'll be tuned to see, when you can publish a sequel... :)



-I take this opportunity to make the following observations / suggestions on the subject:


Ever would have to make a single thread to discuss exclusively on the various possible pods, located at the end of Francoism and in the transition to democracy... because the book that is circulating a few years ago with a series of essays ... the truth does not meet a minimum threshold ... at least for me.

http://www.edicionesb.com/catalogo/libro/la-historia-de-espana-que-no-pudo-ser_887.html

Besides which as usual it has not been translated into English, at least to my knowledge. :confused:

Thank you very much! I was afraid that ths TL would become a Suárezwank, but I couldn't go in a different way. Such is fate...

I've read the book you mention when I was looking for information and ideas about Carrero Blanco (who, I must confess to you, became forgotten by this author when he stopped being presidentiable :D. However, I have plans for him) and for the replacement of Franco. It's a good reading, indeed.

That was a quite nice ride. I don't know what comes after 1982, but as IOTL, it could have been much worse.

It's a minor detail, I know, but might I ask which flag does the Third Spanish Republic use?

I know it a bit... This TL Spain is going to face very interesting times ;)

I haven't thought about the flag but now you mention, it's the "old" Republican one, the one used by the Spanish Republican government in exile until 1977.

The colours are the usual ones: red, yellow, and murrey. It the Spanish Republican coat of arms at the centre (quarterly of Castile, Leon, Aragon and Navarre, enté en point for Granada, ensigned by a mural crown, between the two Pillars of Hercules). It's going to play a role in the "sequal", now you mention it...

It's been a great TL, Kurt. Congratulations on completing it. :)

Thank you!!!

Seconded!:)

Thanks for reading!
 
As I'm not too keen on football matters as I was once, I forgot to put this here. Just in case some might wonder about it...

Annex One.

Year Competition Winner
1975 La Liga (1) Real Madrid
1976 La Liga Real Madrid
1977 La Liga Barcelona
1978 La Liga Real Madrid
1979 La Liga Real Madrid
1980 La Liga Real Sociedad
1981 La Liga Real Sociedad
1982 La Liga Barcelona

1975 Copa del Rey (2) Altético de Madrid
1976 Copa del Rey Real Madrid
1977 Copa del Rey Barcelona
1978 Copa del Rey Betis
1979 Copa del Rey Valencia
1980 Copa de la República Real Madrid
1981 Copa de la República Barcelona
1982 Copa de la República Sporting de Gijón

1975 European Cup Bayern Munich
1976 European Cup Bayern Munich
1977 European Cup Liverpool
1978 European Cup Liverpool
1979 European Cup Nottingham Forest
1980 European Cup Ajax Ámsterdam
1981 European Cup Liverpool
1982 European Cup Aston Villa

1975 UEFA Bor. M'gladbach
1976 UEFA Brujas
1977 UEFA Ath. Bilbao
1978 UEFA PSV Eindhoven
1979 UEFA Barcelona
1980 UEFA Eintracht Frankfurt
1981 UEFA Standard Liège
1982 UEFA IFK Gotteborg

1975 European Cup Winners Bayern Munich
1976 European Cup Winners Liverpool
1977 European Cup Winners Liverpool
1978 European Cup Winners Nottingham Forest
1979 European Cup Winners Bor. M'gladbach
1980 European Cup Winners Ajax Ámsterdam
1981 European Cup Winners Dinamo Tiblisi
1982 European Cup Winners Barcelona
 
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