TLIAX: Parliamentary Socialist Egypt

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Windows95, Jul 28, 2019.

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  1. Threadmarks: Introduction

    Windows95 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2017
    Location:
    Montreal, Canada
    1954: The year that the fate of Egypt seems to be hanging on two men, Muhammed Naguib, vs. Gamal Abdel Nasser. The power struggle decided between the struggle between the two men decides two futures: one with the promise of parliamentary democracy vs. an autocratic regime. Finally, through trickery, divide and conquer tactics in the RCC, middle class, use of the Muslim Brotherhood armed wing, some members of the left-leaning Wafd faction (social democrats, social liberals, anti-Soviet communists (think George Orwell)) and the tiny remnants of the syndicalist movement. The Democratic Coalition (I know it sounds corny), officially won against the Nasser Soviet-leaning faction in the RCC. Lead by Muhammed Naguib, the gruelling and mentally draining struggle was won. It seems that Egypt would be headed into a future of democracy, and maybe prosperity. But this is not to mean that it is easy. Internal forces threaten the nascent parliamentary democracy, both internal and external.

    So yeah... this is a TLIAX (tee-lee-ax) of an alternate Egypt, one that is democratic and parliamentary. But who knew what it would like compared with Nasser's autocracy and concentration of power to the military.

    Please guys, don't ask me the explicit details of the events of 1954 or any specific detail of policy x, as I only gleaned the events from wikipedia and some other sources. This timeline is of course, TLIAX, but time is relative, so it could be done in a week or so, or in any time. This is very easy, because this timeline doesn't require too much details and worldbuilding, which probably means I would fill in the details later for the future. Hence... the TLIA wording.

    Chapter 1 on the politics, constitution, referendums, economic problems and policy are coming up next. I am gonna get off the site to research more. Also get some international reactions, and Egypt's neighbour leaning... Soviet-allied.

    Addendum: If anyone is willing to edit my work for errors of any kind, that is completely fine with me.
     
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  2. King Jasper Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2018
    Interesting. Watched.
     
  3. Threadmarks: Chapter 1: Political and Economic Situation.

    Windows95 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2017
    Location:
    Montreal, Canada
    Economic and Political Problems

    The political situation is contentious. While Egypt itself is nominally a parliamentary system, it is not a true democracy. In the sense that the foreign-influenced aristocrats from urban areas, the secular middle class and the landlords representing the Wafd Party are represented. This contrasted with the small amount of peasant representation and the workers who cannot influence the parliament or got their voices unheard, due to the harsh repression or suspicion by the previous monarch. What the left side of the spectrum lacked was influence and popularity.

    The Democratic Coalition, headed by Muhammed Naguib, set out to create a constitution. It involved the voices of everyone, including the Muslim Brotherhood, and excluded the landlords and aristocrats, since the Democratic Coalition universally agreed on banning anything monarchial related. No one was left happy after the creation of a new constitution, although common things were established: Republic of Egypt is formed, with unicameral house. It will overall be a deliberative and consensus democracy, with all actors involved in it. There is also demands to audit and correct internal errors of the army, what went wrong over the war with Israel and what to do with it. It also made social justice a goal for all Egyptians, whether foreigner or indigenous, Jew or Italian or Armenian. All of those people are involved in farms, industry and financial sector. And they all have a role to shape up a new Egypt, one filled with cosmopolitanism of foreigners, mixed with the deep indigenous roots of Egypt, Coptic and Islam. The role of Islam was... contentious, and it would nearly break the coalition had the Prime Minister Naguib (removal of the semi-presidential system in favour of parliament system), recommended that the religion issue be tabled. Instead, there was a formation of a sort of social democratic coalition: the Muslim Brotherhood with religion and social justice, secular liberals, and the left (excluding the Soviet left who are just being purged). There was hatred of corruption and the inequality in the society.

    The economic situation is urgent: 12,000 landlords own 24 of the land, while the 12,000,000 peasants own 13%, and the demand for food and agriculture space is increasing. It is primarily an agrarian society, with the few amounts of industry and foreign trade/exchange controlled by a tiny minority. 52% of Egyptians are farmers, and farming is always a struggle, despite the overall gains in agriculture, per-capita is still not successful. It is part of 25% of the economy. But the rising population is already straining agriculture and consumption. Fertilizer is already used in an intensive scale, and it is clear that something else is needed. To intensify agriculture, technology must be used, new techniques, new seed planting and irrigation.

    The industrial sector left behind by the Farouk government was in good hands, thankfully. The industrial sector contributed to the 10% of the economy, employing 4% of the workers. There is a fossil fuels business in crude, oil and natural gas. This sector could have a strong opportunity in natural gas, where billions of barrels of natural gas could outstrip demand by a lot.

    As Muhammed Naguib is the inaugural Prime Minister, this is something to get advice on economics. The parliament would commission a group of independent economic advisors, and they conclude that intensifying agriculture to be exporting to the outside world and small/light industries as a precondition for the industrialization of Egypt. This is what made the drafting of the first five year plan, agreed by the parliament. All of this would be financed by a progressive tax, land value tax and the available foreign currency to purchase seeds, plants, agricultural machinery and tools. Energy is incorporated as well, the goal being to nationalize the energy sector and supply energy to the people through electrification and fossil fuel plants.

    It is the best strategy for liberal anti-communists as well (despite the progressive tax advocated by the Muslim Brotherhood), because it would destroy the main constituency and support of the Muslim Brotherhood and kill any potential communist movements. The farmers would move into the cities, expected to get jobs in the industrial sector and manufacturing sector. The economic plan was inspired by the American economist Alexander Hamilton, with some historical copies and examples from Japan, it had advanced agriculture and light industry before takeoff to industrialization.

    But the Egyptian political leaders would want to do something different, and they want to do industrialization and economic development equitably as possible under capitalism. This would include spending in welfare programs, decentralized education, and literacy. Not only that, but there would be workplace democracy and cooperatives for light and agricultural industry

    This plan had to be done, since parliament and Naguib was distrusting of any foreign power (especially both the US and the USSR). And Egypt wants to exert by nationalizing the Suez Canal, to get more currency reserves to further the expansion of the Egyptian economy.

    First Five Year Plan (1955 - 1960).
    - Investing and subsidies in new agriculture methods and technology (machinery and tractors) to intensify the land, becoming the exporter of rice, wheat and sugar.
    - Nationalize the energy sector, to electrify the whole of Egypt with construction of new coal plants and natural gas plants.
    - Startup of low-interest loans, credit unions and subsidies to the light industry of any kinds to create new enterprises of various types, whether cooperatives or just conventional firms.
    - Electrification of Egypt, with the use of fossil fuels.
    - Elimination of illiteracy.


    Sources of Egyptian economics area, I found this surprisingly from a CIA source dating back to 1966 on Egypt:
    https://www.cia.gov/library/reading...pKV2Vsm-d3VlwH0Y8Y3MVvC1PglVTpp5UvLjFCpEciges
     
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  4. ahmed1ghoneim Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2018
    Follow-up to this alternative schedule and I hope you complete it and do not neglect it
     
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