TLIAW: The British General Election 84
- Thread starter iainbhx
- Start date
Iain, I do love your election write-ups. The start of this election night has not disappointed in the slightest.
The Alliance are going to have an interesting time if the poll is correct. Lots of new and inexperienced MPs making it into Parliament with a not united two parties working together, and not making a majority without the Conservatives. It is still very early in the night though, with lots twists and turns likely.
The Alliance are going to have an interesting time if the poll is correct. Lots of new and inexperienced MPs making it into Parliament with a not united two parties working together, and not making a majority without the Conservatives. It is still very early in the night though, with lots twists and turns likely.
The Fifth Lectern is about to look like OTL 2001.
I am very excited, I think you captured the personalities quite well, I could hear Our Neil perfectly in particular. Whitelaw gave a plausible response, it's going to be interesting to see what the Tories say as the night goes on - my most recent memory of open dissent and 'basically, fuck it' responses in election night interviews is from Lib Dem councillors in 2012, I think, as I was only 6 (and asleep) in 1997. I imagine we'll see lots of 'off-message' comments from defeated Tories across the night!
I'm buckling in, please give us more.
I am very excited, I think you captured the personalities quite well, I could hear Our Neil perfectly in particular. Whitelaw gave a plausible response, it's going to be interesting to see what the Tories say as the night goes on - my most recent memory of open dissent and 'basically, fuck it' responses in election night interviews is from Lib Dem councillors in 2012, I think, as I was only 6 (and asleep) in 1997. I imagine we'll see lots of 'off-message' comments from defeated Tories across the night!
I'm buckling in, please give us more.
Dom
Moderator
Right, to expand on this now it is half time;
As Meadow has said, the characterisation is excellent. I liked "Peter Snow is here with amazing electronic gadgetry!"
I also like the fact it is very in depth and promises to continue to be so. I do like getting into the nitty gritty.
A thought occurs: what happens if David Steel becomes PM, but the SDP are the largest party? Apart from Fun, of course.
Eagerly awaiting the carnage!
Eagerly awaiting the carnage!
He's Back..
Thought I would delurk from my retirement to comment on this one. I'm obviously looking forward to it as a Liberal and now Lib Dem supporter.
I do have a few quibbles with the scenario.
I'm reminded that Eden quit after the Suez debacle but the Government didn't fall and indeed won re-election convincingly in 1959.
That said, I do acknowledge that having put so much of her personal capital into the conflict and having rejected all forms of diplomatic compromise, the failure of the military option would be tantamount to personal humiliation.
With the Invincible sunk or crippled, the Argentinean carrier prepares to sortie and the balance of forces now looks problematic for the British. IF calls for direct American help are ignored (and Washington has vested interests aplenty in the region), it will be left to Haig to salvage what we can for London from a victorious Galtieri - I would argue failure for Thatcher diminishes Reagan as well.
How would the endgame play out ? In November 1990, Thatcher was forced from office by her own MPs but this would be very different. Each body bag and each funeral would be a mortal blow for her and I suspect she would go on tv in June 1982 to announce her resignation.
The problem with this scenario is identifying the Conservative Party with the actions of Margaret Thatcher - IF she goes, can not the Party rebuild under a Prior or Gilmour ? If she stays, she would be a constant reminder of political and military failure - if she goes, that wound is excised to a considerable extent.
Yet the Alliance was a formidable threat in early 1982 and with the Falklands failure, the Conservative "surge" wouldn't happen and the Party would, as you argue, be struggling in third place (as a number of polls placed than in 1981-82).
However, the economy WAS improving and I'm doubtful the Tories would have still been in that deep a hole by the summer of 1984. An election with the Alliance topping the poll but not by much would be my idea of the outcome (say 35-32-30) - you could always try 34-31-27 (that worked well in another TL as I recall).
Thought I would delurk from my retirement to comment on this one. I'm obviously looking forward to it as a Liberal and now Lib Dem supporter.
I do have a few quibbles with the scenario.
I'm reminded that Eden quit after the Suez debacle but the Government didn't fall and indeed won re-election convincingly in 1959.
That said, I do acknowledge that having put so much of her personal capital into the conflict and having rejected all forms of diplomatic compromise, the failure of the military option would be tantamount to personal humiliation.
With the Invincible sunk or crippled, the Argentinean carrier prepares to sortie and the balance of forces now looks problematic for the British. IF calls for direct American help are ignored (and Washington has vested interests aplenty in the region), it will be left to Haig to salvage what we can for London from a victorious Galtieri - I would argue failure for Thatcher diminishes Reagan as well.
How would the endgame play out ? In November 1990, Thatcher was forced from office by her own MPs but this would be very different. Each body bag and each funeral would be a mortal blow for her and I suspect she would go on tv in June 1982 to announce her resignation.
The problem with this scenario is identifying the Conservative Party with the actions of Margaret Thatcher - IF she goes, can not the Party rebuild under a Prior or Gilmour ? If she stays, she would be a constant reminder of political and military failure - if she goes, that wound is excised to a considerable extent.
Yet the Alliance was a formidable threat in early 1982 and with the Falklands failure, the Conservative "surge" wouldn't happen and the Party would, as you argue, be struggling in third place (as a number of polls placed than in 1981-82).
However, the economy WAS improving and I'm doubtful the Tories would have still been in that deep a hole by the summer of 1984. An election with the Alliance topping the poll but not by much would be my idea of the outcome (say 35-32-30) - you could always try 34-31-27 (that worked well in another TL as I recall).
Enjoyably written as always.
I do think giving the government a poll rating of less than 1% after the Falklands disaster is a bit of overkill don't you?
I do think giving the government a poll rating of less than 1% after the Falklands disaster is a bit of overkill don't you?
BBC1 - Election 84
David Dimbleby: Well, even our powerful computer has some trouble calculating everything after one result. Robin.
Robin Day: Well, Mr Whitelaw, you are taking this with some aplomb.
Willie Whitelaw: The writing has been on the wall for some time, even before the Falklands, the Alliance were doing very well in the polls. Since then, they have never not been in the lead, in fact it has only been since March where we have seen them without massive majorities. Edward has done very well to pull us back as far as he has.
RD: I wonder if all your colleagues will think the same, especially the defeated ones. Mr Kinnock, how do you think the advance of socialism in Torbay can continue.
Neil Kinnock: I think the advance of socialism in Torbay has always been a difficult thing, however, what we have here is tactical voting on a massive scale.
RD: I can see Mr Whitelaw nodding here, however, Mr Cunningham
DD: Sorry to interrupt, Robin, but this is the nature of election night, we need to go to Guildford. Selina.
Selina Scott: The acting returning officer is taking up his position, David Howell is defending a 20,000 majority from the last election but the seat has been reduced in size somewhat. The rumours from around the hall is that he has been swept aside. Here we go.
Voiceover: I Bertram Eric Twyford being the returning officer for the parliamentary constituency of Guildford, give notice that the total number of votes cast for each candidate was as follows. Chesterton, Seven Thousand and Ninety Eight, Farrell Six Hundred and Sixty Eight, Howell Twenty One Thousand Eight Hundred and Forty Four <weak cheers> Sharp Twenty Six Thousand Nine Hundred and Ninety Five and I hereby declare the aforementioned Margaret Lucy Sharp the duly elected member for the Guildford Constituency.
GUILDFORD SDP GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE
SS: David Howell looks shattered, his wife looks close to tears. Whilst the Liberals are cheering, it's a slightly stunned cheer, it is as if they have won but done believe it. David.
DD: Margaret Sharp an economist at Sussex University has removed the first Cabinet Minister of the night to fall, the Secretary of State for Transport. I think this is the point where we have all pinched ourselves and realised that what people have been talking about for the last two years is happening. Peter
Peter Snow: It isn't quite as good as Torbay. Here we are
GUILDFORD
SDP Gain from Con Maj 5,151
Sharp SDP 26,955 48%
Howell Con 21,844 39%
Chesterton Lab 7,098 13%
Farrell Ind 668 1%
Turnout 74%
Not quite as good as Torbay, Labour still down considerably there but holding their deposit. The Tories down by about the same amount, however, when you consider how far through the battle board Guildford is.
<< cut to VT showing CHELTENHAM>>
Voiceover: was as follows, Holme Thirty Two Thousand Three Hundred and Forty Four <massive cheers> Irving Nineteen Thousand Six Hundred and Eighty Seven,
CHELTENHAM LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE
James Five Thousand Five Hundred and Four, Swindley Nine Hundred and Fifty Three and the
DD: And the alliance go Three for Three. Sir Charles Irving swept aside by the Director of the Electoral Reform Society, whilst Peter prepares his boards. Robin.
RD: Mr Cunningham, is it like Christmas yet?
George Cunningham: I think that question would be better given to one of our Liberal partners who have had years and years of frustration, but it is like several Christmasses come at once.
RD: Did you expect all three so far.
GC: I was told to expect Cheltenham and Torbay, I as told Guildford was likely. Personally, I can't wait to see your face when we take seats I was told were possible.
RD: Give me an example?
GC: Ilford North.
RD: Peter will have to help me out with that one.
PS: Ilford North is very, very far down the Battleboard, it is so far down that if we look at our archery target, it is on the edge of the bullseye. However, Cheltenham was an easy gain for the Liberals, totally expected, it is the Alliances 28th most likely target seat. Had it not fallen, I suspect there would have been questions at the National Liberal Club.
DD: How is the tin brain doing?
PS: Well, we have three atypical southern seats, I don't really think things are going to be like this throughout the country. Labour have lost two deposits so far and would get 11% of the vote, that isn't happening.
DD: Well, lets speak to the Shadow Home Secretary, Mr Hattersley at his count in Birmingham. Mr Hattersley, what do you think of the three results so far?
Roy Hattersley: Well, as Peter just said, its nonsense, clearly the Convervaties are being defeated, and defeated on a scale like 1945. But it looks like tactical voting to me and I can see here in Birmingham that Labour are doing very well and I understand that we are likely to pick up at least two and possibly three seats from the Conservatives.
DD: So you are feeling bullish about the results.
RH: I think we have to concede that the Alliance looks like it is doing very well in the affluent south, but the Midlands and Northern marginals look like they are returning to Labour.
DD: Thank you Mr Hattersley. Robin.
RD: So Mr Kinnock, Tactical Votes all around?
Neil Kinnock: Roy is very astute, if we are picking up two or three seats in Birmingham alone, then we could be looking at tactical votes all around which would be extremely damaging to the Conservatives.
RD: Mr Whitelaw, three seats, three losses. Is this a harbinger of Doom?
WW: I was slightly cheered that the Labour vote is down considerably as well, but these seats are not the marginals of the North. Roy Hattersley says two or three Labour gains in Birmingham, a place where the Alliance are very weak, but that would still leave two or three Conservative seats. Perhaps things aren't as grim as the early results suggest.
RD: Still very grim if you are losing places like Guildford.
WW: Oh, very much so, probably as bad as 1945 if not worse, but maybe not as bad as the computer suggests.
DD: We predict that the Liberals will gain both Montgomery and Chelmsford, rather easy predictions given the seats so far, but the news from both counts is that those seats have been taken by substantial margins. We were going to pop to Chingford to speak to Norman Tebbit, who is the unofficial leader of the Thatcherites in the Conservative Party, but we understand that he is very tied in his count. Peter, surely not Chingford?
PS: Chingford would be smack dead centre in the bullseye of our target.
LABOUR HOLD WOLVERHAMPTON NORTH EAST
DD: Renee Short, a fiery red-headed Labour left winger has held on we understand with a very similar majority. We will have the numbers in a moment. Robin.
RD: Perhaps I should ask our fiery Labour red-head about more serious matters.
NK: What's left of it Robin.
RD: <laughs> But what about the Labour leadership, is Michael Foot going to survive this result.
NK: Well, at least Michael is sure to keep his seat, unlike Mr du Cann. Obviously, there is no vacancy at present.
DD: I must interrupt - Roy Jenkins now arriving at his count in Glasgow Hillhead, appears to be smiling rather a lot and looking confident and we understand Reigate has gone to a recount. George Gardiner, another one of Mrs Thatcher's supporter in the last ditch after the Falklands possibly in trouble.
PS: Or it could be a recount for a Labour lost deposit?
DD: Robin, I hated to have to interrupt such an interesting discussion and I would say continue, but I see that we have a declaration in Wrexham
Voiceover: John Marek Seventeen Thousand Five Hundred and Twenty Eight, John Thomas One Thousand Six Hundred and Sixty Six, Martin Thomas Twenty One Thousand Three Hundred and Eighty, Kay Wood Eight Thousand and Sixty Six and I hereby declare the aforementioned Martin Thomas to be duly elected as the member for Wrexham.
WREXHAM - LIBERAL GAIN FROM LABOUR
DD: Now there is a turn up for the books, Tom Ellis who was the Labour MP for Wrexham defected to the SDP, but chose not to fight Wrexham but the new Clwyd South West instead. So Wrexham was thought to be safe for John Marek, a mathematician. However, the periennal Liberal candidate, Martin Thomas, a QC and a local man has taken it by nearly four thousand. Peter.
PS: Well, this opens up a new flank, we have wondered how many SDP defectors would hold on. Now we see a seat that had a defector clearly turn to the Liberals, this is a very interesting result indeed. Robin
RD: Mr Cunningham, pleased?
GC: Delighted, as I'm sure that means that Tom Ellis has gained the new Clwyd seat as well and I think that blows Mr Hattersley and Mr Kinnock's comments earlier out of the water. The Alliance is gaining against the Conservatives and Labour.
RD: Mr Kinnock, you are scowling
NK: I think Wrexham is somewhat atypical, it's not one of the marginals and it is effectively a defection seat even if the MP has moved on to what he considered to be better ground.
DD: We are hearing that John Cartwright of the SDP is being predicted to win the the new Woolwich seat rather easily and we appear to be nearly ready to declare in Pendle. John Lee took it last time for the Conservatives, a very small notional majority of 400 or so, should really be a certain Labour gain.
PS: Quickly, Wolverhampton North East, Renee Short had a 4,500 notional majority, you will see she's kept most of that
WOLVERHAMPTON NORTH EAST
LABOUR HOLD Maj 3,952
Short Lab 19,264 42%
Yarnell Lib 15,339 33%
Burnside Con 9,597 21%
Baugh NF 1,808 4%
Turnout 72%
but instead of the Conservatives being at her heels, the Liberals are and that certainly wasn't hinted at in last months's local elections in the area.
DD: We must go to Pendle, which was previously called Nelson and Colne - a famous marginal.
Voiceover: Lee 14,827, Lishman 19,895, Rogers 17,967
PENDLE - LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE
DD: That's an overtake by the Liberals there. Tony Benn arriving at his count in Bristol East there, perused by the press pack.
SALFORD EAST - LABOUR HOLD
DD: And Stan Orme, holding in Salford East, so that's the second Labour seat held there. Peter where are we?
PS: Well, there are now 8 seats in, 6 Alliance and 2 Labour. Of the Alliance, 5 are Liberals and 1 is a Social Democrat.
DD: Fascinating, Peter. Robin.
RD: Which strikes me as an interesting question for Mr Cunningham, 5 Liberals, 1 Social Democrat, is that going to be a problem.
GC: Well, I think that's far, far to early to comment on. There has been a fairly even split of seats and all the difficulties have been resolved.
DD: We hear that Bruce Douglas-Mann will be getting his revenge for his by-election loss after he very honourably offered himself to the electorate. More shockingly, we hear that it is neck and neck in Mole Valley. Peter.
PS: Pendle, where the Liberals do have local strength which appears to have come through for them. A huge turnout in this traditional marginal.
PENDLE
LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE Maj 1,928
Lishman Lib 19,895 38%
Rogers Lab 17,967 34%
Lee Con 14,827 28%
Turnout 82%
DD: If Tactical Voting was in play, then this should have been a Labour gain, but the Liberals have come through the middle here. Robin
RD: I shall go to Mr Whitelaw, who is looking positively beatific at the moment.
WW: I'm just very, very glad that it doesn't seem to be tactical voting. If it had have been, then I would have feared a near wipeout. It appears, so far, to be a general swing to the Alliance. Although it is early days.
RD: Of course and we have had very little in the way of anything but unity from Conservative candidates during the election.
WW: I am reminded of the old saying, we must all hang together or we shall surely hang.
RD: <laughs> It's clear that you have kept your sense of humour.
SURREY EAST - SIR GEOFFREY HOWE HOLDS
DD: Sir Geoffrey Howe holds on with a massively reduced majority in his seat, down to just over 2,000 from a predicted 25,000.
LEIGH - LABOUR HOLD
RD: See, Mr Whitelaw, you have an MP.
WW: <guffaws> Well, if we didn't hold Surrey East, we would be a very, very bad way.
BARNSLEY W & PENISTONE - LABOUR HOLD
NK: Recount in Reigate, mind and it's not for our deposit.
DD: Starting to get the Northern Labour safe seats in.
PS: And they are still pretty safe, 8,000 in Leigh, 7,500 in Barnsley West, the Conservatives have lost their deposit in both.
DD: That's fairly unusual isn't it. We will just go to the count at Bethnal Green and Stepney where were will have a few words with Shadow Chancellor Peter Shore. Peter. Are you going to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer or are you resigned to an Alliance Landslide?
YEOVIL - LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE
Peter Shore: I'm not resigned to anything at this point, it looks like I have beaten off a Liberal challenge in my seat and whilst there have been a couple of bad results so far, I think that we are not yet looking at an Alliance Majority government. We are, however, clearly looking at a total disaster for the Conservatives..
BARNSLEY EAST - LABOUR HOLD
PSh: So I think that any talk of who will be the next Chancellor is rather premature at this point. Obviously, when we get the final results
DD: I'm sorry, Mr Shore, I'm going to have to interrupt you there your party leader has now arrived at his count. As you can see, he's been ambushed very much by a large press pack and is being very non-commital about matters. Very much of the wait and see wing. Now let's look at the Yeovil result.
PS: Now this is extra-ordinary, Paddy Ashdown has taken a Conservative seat wit a 20,000 majority.
DD: Well, we have already had a 20,000 notional majority go in Guildford.
PS: No, Paddy Ashdown has a 20,000 majority, the Conservative notional majority was 8,800.
<Pan to the panel, Willie Whitelaw has his head in his hands, Neil Kinnock's look is "rabbit in the headlamps", George Cunningham is laughing.>
And as you can see, he's done this by taking the Labour vote down by 17% and the Conservative vote down by about the same.
YEOVIL
LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE Maj: 20,282
Ashdown Lib 35,603 65%
Martin Con 15,321 28%
Brushett Lab 4,010 7%
Turnout: 81%
DD: Well, that is a stunning result from a decent Tory majority to a mighty Liberal fortress in one election. Peter Shore, before our next question, aren't you glad the Liberals didn't do that well in your seat.
PSh: To take what I calculate to be around 18% of the Conservatives in my seat would send them into a negative number of votes. As it is, I'm afraid they have probably come fourth behind some fascist and have lost their deposit.
DD: But to return to the question, do you think your economic programme played much a a part with your 11 billion of investment in the economy and an extra 4 billion on conventional defence.
NUNEATON - SDP GAIN FROM LABOUR
PSh: To be perfectly honest, David, I don't think that the economic argument really caught on with the electorate, if it had of done, then people surely would not have voted for the Alliance's much weaker investment package. I think what people voted for was a rather nebulous change.
REIGATE - CONSERVATIVE HOLD
DD: So is there a question of leadership?
PSh: I don't see you asking Mr Whitelaw that question. I am sure that my leader will make a suitable announcement after an appropriate period of contemplation.
DD: Well, there are some doubts if Mr du Cann will hold his seat. Thank you Mr Shore. Peter Snow, Taunton and a a midnight round up?
PS: Well, given the West Country seats we have had in, then yes, Mr du Cann would lose his seat but Prime Ministers do get a little bonus, as do all party leaders. The West Country is looking very much like the Alliance will sweep it. We have 15 seats in and it is
Alliance 8 (6 Lib, 2 SDP), Labour 5, Con 2
David Dimbleby: Well, even our powerful computer has some trouble calculating everything after one result. Robin.
Robin Day: Well, Mr Whitelaw, you are taking this with some aplomb.
Willie Whitelaw: The writing has been on the wall for some time, even before the Falklands, the Alliance were doing very well in the polls. Since then, they have never not been in the lead, in fact it has only been since March where we have seen them without massive majorities. Edward has done very well to pull us back as far as he has.
RD: I wonder if all your colleagues will think the same, especially the defeated ones. Mr Kinnock, how do you think the advance of socialism in Torbay can continue.
Neil Kinnock: I think the advance of socialism in Torbay has always been a difficult thing, however, what we have here is tactical voting on a massive scale.
RD: I can see Mr Whitelaw nodding here, however, Mr Cunningham
DD: Sorry to interrupt, Robin, but this is the nature of election night, we need to go to Guildford. Selina.
Selina Scott: The acting returning officer is taking up his position, David Howell is defending a 20,000 majority from the last election but the seat has been reduced in size somewhat. The rumours from around the hall is that he has been swept aside. Here we go.
Voiceover: I Bertram Eric Twyford being the returning officer for the parliamentary constituency of Guildford, give notice that the total number of votes cast for each candidate was as follows. Chesterton, Seven Thousand and Ninety Eight, Farrell Six Hundred and Sixty Eight, Howell Twenty One Thousand Eight Hundred and Forty Four <weak cheers> Sharp Twenty Six Thousand Nine Hundred and Ninety Five and I hereby declare the aforementioned Margaret Lucy Sharp the duly elected member for the Guildford Constituency.
GUILDFORD SDP GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE
SS: David Howell looks shattered, his wife looks close to tears. Whilst the Liberals are cheering, it's a slightly stunned cheer, it is as if they have won but done believe it. David.
DD: Margaret Sharp an economist at Sussex University has removed the first Cabinet Minister of the night to fall, the Secretary of State for Transport. I think this is the point where we have all pinched ourselves and realised that what people have been talking about for the last two years is happening. Peter
Peter Snow: It isn't quite as good as Torbay. Here we are
GUILDFORD
SDP Gain from Con Maj 5,151
Sharp SDP 26,955 48%
Howell Con 21,844 39%
Chesterton Lab 7,098 13%
Farrell Ind 668 1%
Turnout 74%
Not quite as good as Torbay, Labour still down considerably there but holding their deposit. The Tories down by about the same amount, however, when you consider how far through the battle board Guildford is.
<< cut to VT showing CHELTENHAM>>
Voiceover: was as follows, Holme Thirty Two Thousand Three Hundred and Forty Four <massive cheers> Irving Nineteen Thousand Six Hundred and Eighty Seven,
CHELTENHAM LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE
James Five Thousand Five Hundred and Four, Swindley Nine Hundred and Fifty Three and the
DD: And the alliance go Three for Three. Sir Charles Irving swept aside by the Director of the Electoral Reform Society, whilst Peter prepares his boards. Robin.
RD: Mr Cunningham, is it like Christmas yet?
George Cunningham: I think that question would be better given to one of our Liberal partners who have had years and years of frustration, but it is like several Christmasses come at once.
RD: Did you expect all three so far.
GC: I was told to expect Cheltenham and Torbay, I as told Guildford was likely. Personally, I can't wait to see your face when we take seats I was told were possible.
RD: Give me an example?
GC: Ilford North.
RD: Peter will have to help me out with that one.
PS: Ilford North is very, very far down the Battleboard, it is so far down that if we look at our archery target, it is on the edge of the bullseye. However, Cheltenham was an easy gain for the Liberals, totally expected, it is the Alliances 28th most likely target seat. Had it not fallen, I suspect there would have been questions at the National Liberal Club.
DD: How is the tin brain doing?
PS: Well, we have three atypical southern seats, I don't really think things are going to be like this throughout the country. Labour have lost two deposits so far and would get 11% of the vote, that isn't happening.
DD: Well, lets speak to the Shadow Home Secretary, Mr Hattersley at his count in Birmingham. Mr Hattersley, what do you think of the three results so far?
Roy Hattersley: Well, as Peter just said, its nonsense, clearly the Convervaties are being defeated, and defeated on a scale like 1945. But it looks like tactical voting to me and I can see here in Birmingham that Labour are doing very well and I understand that we are likely to pick up at least two and possibly three seats from the Conservatives.
DD: So you are feeling bullish about the results.
RH: I think we have to concede that the Alliance looks like it is doing very well in the affluent south, but the Midlands and Northern marginals look like they are returning to Labour.
DD: Thank you Mr Hattersley. Robin.
RD: So Mr Kinnock, Tactical Votes all around?
Neil Kinnock: Roy is very astute, if we are picking up two or three seats in Birmingham alone, then we could be looking at tactical votes all around which would be extremely damaging to the Conservatives.
RD: Mr Whitelaw, three seats, three losses. Is this a harbinger of Doom?
WW: I was slightly cheered that the Labour vote is down considerably as well, but these seats are not the marginals of the North. Roy Hattersley says two or three Labour gains in Birmingham, a place where the Alliance are very weak, but that would still leave two or three Conservative seats. Perhaps things aren't as grim as the early results suggest.
RD: Still very grim if you are losing places like Guildford.
WW: Oh, very much so, probably as bad as 1945 if not worse, but maybe not as bad as the computer suggests.
DD: We predict that the Liberals will gain both Montgomery and Chelmsford, rather easy predictions given the seats so far, but the news from both counts is that those seats have been taken by substantial margins. We were going to pop to Chingford to speak to Norman Tebbit, who is the unofficial leader of the Thatcherites in the Conservative Party, but we understand that he is very tied in his count. Peter, surely not Chingford?
PS: Chingford would be smack dead centre in the bullseye of our target.
LABOUR HOLD WOLVERHAMPTON NORTH EAST
DD: Renee Short, a fiery red-headed Labour left winger has held on we understand with a very similar majority. We will have the numbers in a moment. Robin.
RD: Perhaps I should ask our fiery Labour red-head about more serious matters.
NK: What's left of it Robin.
RD: <laughs> But what about the Labour leadership, is Michael Foot going to survive this result.
NK: Well, at least Michael is sure to keep his seat, unlike Mr du Cann. Obviously, there is no vacancy at present.
DD: I must interrupt - Roy Jenkins now arriving at his count in Glasgow Hillhead, appears to be smiling rather a lot and looking confident and we understand Reigate has gone to a recount. George Gardiner, another one of Mrs Thatcher's supporter in the last ditch after the Falklands possibly in trouble.
PS: Or it could be a recount for a Labour lost deposit?
DD: Robin, I hated to have to interrupt such an interesting discussion and I would say continue, but I see that we have a declaration in Wrexham
Voiceover: John Marek Seventeen Thousand Five Hundred and Twenty Eight, John Thomas One Thousand Six Hundred and Sixty Six, Martin Thomas Twenty One Thousand Three Hundred and Eighty, Kay Wood Eight Thousand and Sixty Six and I hereby declare the aforementioned Martin Thomas to be duly elected as the member for Wrexham.
WREXHAM - LIBERAL GAIN FROM LABOUR
DD: Now there is a turn up for the books, Tom Ellis who was the Labour MP for Wrexham defected to the SDP, but chose not to fight Wrexham but the new Clwyd South West instead. So Wrexham was thought to be safe for John Marek, a mathematician. However, the periennal Liberal candidate, Martin Thomas, a QC and a local man has taken it by nearly four thousand. Peter.
PS: Well, this opens up a new flank, we have wondered how many SDP defectors would hold on. Now we see a seat that had a defector clearly turn to the Liberals, this is a very interesting result indeed. Robin
RD: Mr Cunningham, pleased?
GC: Delighted, as I'm sure that means that Tom Ellis has gained the new Clwyd seat as well and I think that blows Mr Hattersley and Mr Kinnock's comments earlier out of the water. The Alliance is gaining against the Conservatives and Labour.
RD: Mr Kinnock, you are scowling
NK: I think Wrexham is somewhat atypical, it's not one of the marginals and it is effectively a defection seat even if the MP has moved on to what he considered to be better ground.
DD: We are hearing that John Cartwright of the SDP is being predicted to win the the new Woolwich seat rather easily and we appear to be nearly ready to declare in Pendle. John Lee took it last time for the Conservatives, a very small notional majority of 400 or so, should really be a certain Labour gain.
PS: Quickly, Wolverhampton North East, Renee Short had a 4,500 notional majority, you will see she's kept most of that
WOLVERHAMPTON NORTH EAST
LABOUR HOLD Maj 3,952
Short Lab 19,264 42%
Yarnell Lib 15,339 33%
Burnside Con 9,597 21%
Baugh NF 1,808 4%
Turnout 72%
but instead of the Conservatives being at her heels, the Liberals are and that certainly wasn't hinted at in last months's local elections in the area.
DD: We must go to Pendle, which was previously called Nelson and Colne - a famous marginal.
Voiceover: Lee 14,827, Lishman 19,895, Rogers 17,967
PENDLE - LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE
DD: That's an overtake by the Liberals there. Tony Benn arriving at his count in Bristol East there, perused by the press pack.
SALFORD EAST - LABOUR HOLD
DD: And Stan Orme, holding in Salford East, so that's the second Labour seat held there. Peter where are we?
PS: Well, there are now 8 seats in, 6 Alliance and 2 Labour. Of the Alliance, 5 are Liberals and 1 is a Social Democrat.
DD: Fascinating, Peter. Robin.
RD: Which strikes me as an interesting question for Mr Cunningham, 5 Liberals, 1 Social Democrat, is that going to be a problem.
GC: Well, I think that's far, far to early to comment on. There has been a fairly even split of seats and all the difficulties have been resolved.
DD: We hear that Bruce Douglas-Mann will be getting his revenge for his by-election loss after he very honourably offered himself to the electorate. More shockingly, we hear that it is neck and neck in Mole Valley. Peter.
PS: Pendle, where the Liberals do have local strength which appears to have come through for them. A huge turnout in this traditional marginal.
PENDLE
LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE Maj 1,928
Lishman Lib 19,895 38%
Rogers Lab 17,967 34%
Lee Con 14,827 28%
Turnout 82%
DD: If Tactical Voting was in play, then this should have been a Labour gain, but the Liberals have come through the middle here. Robin
RD: I shall go to Mr Whitelaw, who is looking positively beatific at the moment.
WW: I'm just very, very glad that it doesn't seem to be tactical voting. If it had have been, then I would have feared a near wipeout. It appears, so far, to be a general swing to the Alliance. Although it is early days.
RD: Of course and we have had very little in the way of anything but unity from Conservative candidates during the election.
WW: I am reminded of the old saying, we must all hang together or we shall surely hang.
RD: <laughs> It's clear that you have kept your sense of humour.
SURREY EAST - SIR GEOFFREY HOWE HOLDS
DD: Sir Geoffrey Howe holds on with a massively reduced majority in his seat, down to just over 2,000 from a predicted 25,000.
LEIGH - LABOUR HOLD
RD: See, Mr Whitelaw, you have an MP.
WW: <guffaws> Well, if we didn't hold Surrey East, we would be a very, very bad way.
BARNSLEY W & PENISTONE - LABOUR HOLD
NK: Recount in Reigate, mind and it's not for our deposit.
DD: Starting to get the Northern Labour safe seats in.
PS: And they are still pretty safe, 8,000 in Leigh, 7,500 in Barnsley West, the Conservatives have lost their deposit in both.
DD: That's fairly unusual isn't it. We will just go to the count at Bethnal Green and Stepney where were will have a few words with Shadow Chancellor Peter Shore. Peter. Are you going to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer or are you resigned to an Alliance Landslide?
YEOVIL - LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE
Peter Shore: I'm not resigned to anything at this point, it looks like I have beaten off a Liberal challenge in my seat and whilst there have been a couple of bad results so far, I think that we are not yet looking at an Alliance Majority government. We are, however, clearly looking at a total disaster for the Conservatives..
BARNSLEY EAST - LABOUR HOLD
PSh: So I think that any talk of who will be the next Chancellor is rather premature at this point. Obviously, when we get the final results
DD: I'm sorry, Mr Shore, I'm going to have to interrupt you there your party leader has now arrived at his count. As you can see, he's been ambushed very much by a large press pack and is being very non-commital about matters. Very much of the wait and see wing. Now let's look at the Yeovil result.
PS: Now this is extra-ordinary, Paddy Ashdown has taken a Conservative seat wit a 20,000 majority.
DD: Well, we have already had a 20,000 notional majority go in Guildford.
PS: No, Paddy Ashdown has a 20,000 majority, the Conservative notional majority was 8,800.
<Pan to the panel, Willie Whitelaw has his head in his hands, Neil Kinnock's look is "rabbit in the headlamps", George Cunningham is laughing.>
And as you can see, he's done this by taking the Labour vote down by 17% and the Conservative vote down by about the same.
YEOVIL
LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE Maj: 20,282
Ashdown Lib 35,603 65%
Martin Con 15,321 28%
Brushett Lab 4,010 7%
Turnout: 81%
DD: Well, that is a stunning result from a decent Tory majority to a mighty Liberal fortress in one election. Peter Shore, before our next question, aren't you glad the Liberals didn't do that well in your seat.
PSh: To take what I calculate to be around 18% of the Conservatives in my seat would send them into a negative number of votes. As it is, I'm afraid they have probably come fourth behind some fascist and have lost their deposit.
DD: But to return to the question, do you think your economic programme played much a a part with your 11 billion of investment in the economy and an extra 4 billion on conventional defence.
NUNEATON - SDP GAIN FROM LABOUR
PSh: To be perfectly honest, David, I don't think that the economic argument really caught on with the electorate, if it had of done, then people surely would not have voted for the Alliance's much weaker investment package. I think what people voted for was a rather nebulous change.
REIGATE - CONSERVATIVE HOLD
DD: So is there a question of leadership?
PSh: I don't see you asking Mr Whitelaw that question. I am sure that my leader will make a suitable announcement after an appropriate period of contemplation.
DD: Well, there are some doubts if Mr du Cann will hold his seat. Thank you Mr Shore. Peter Snow, Taunton and a a midnight round up?
PS: Well, given the West Country seats we have had in, then yes, Mr du Cann would lose his seat but Prime Ministers do get a little bonus, as do all party leaders. The West Country is looking very much like the Alliance will sweep it. We have 15 seats in and it is
Alliance 8 (6 Lib, 2 SDP), Labour 5, Con 2
Iain - you're a marvel, this is excellent stuff!
I imagine that you are heading towards a 'Oh Shit' collective view all the main parties by the sounds of it. The Tories realising that they probably need to look around for another Robert Peel, Labour dumbfounded by remaining in second place, and the Alliance having a load of political novices in charge and a large, David Owen shaped object heading towards notions of 'coalition' like a massive cannonball of hubris.
Very much looking forward to seeing more!
I imagine that you are heading towards a 'Oh Shit' collective view all the main parties by the sounds of it. The Tories realising that they probably need to look around for another Robert Peel, Labour dumbfounded by remaining in second place, and the Alliance having a load of political novices in charge and a large, David Owen shaped object heading towards notions of 'coalition' like a massive cannonball of hubris.
Very much looking forward to seeing more!
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Sulemain
Banned
I agree with my right honourable friend, although I must state his similies need some work.