TLIAW: The British General Election 84
- Thread starter iainbhx
- Start date
But that alone is dull for people not reading with one hand on their crotch.
I'm hoping iain does something interesting with the result and the aftermath. I can't imagine how Doctor Death and friends will fit easily into collective responsibility. (Them splitting off and joining up with the rump Tories would be supa-dupa) The Tories being battered also probably eases the pressure on Labour a bit.
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Consider me interested and entertained
Two camps. Only two camps, you forget the o'erweening ego of the member for Plymouth, Devonport. Never mind the member for Truro.
Forty seats to Labour and two hundred to the Alliance would mean a narrow Labour edge in seats as far as I can tell, not an Alliance victory. That's assuming that du Cann's numbers are absolutely accurate, of course.
But if the result is anything like that, it will indeed be a very interesting post-election.
Assuming Willie wanted it. After all, consider this, you are about to take a hell of a beating. Willie, who was already tired at the time, might decide that the mood of the 22 for a clean break is sensible. As for Howe, he knows he'd probably survive, why take the chalice now and not after the election.
Let's just say that there has been a certain amount of rancour between the two wings of the SDP. Steel is acting as the unifier in return for top jobs for the other two.
I don't see the relationship between the two statements. Willie's ambition was never great and he would happily do it out of 'service to the party'. (I.E, if no fucker else wanted it.) Willie was indeed tiring which is what would make him fully acceptable to about all wings of the party. He was also of course 'good in a crisis'.
Howe and Pym (Which I think you rightly have being tarnished by the fallout - which is why I've never bought him as a successor in this circumstance) only would come into play if Willie refused or 'had an episode'.
You're also assuming that the beating you're setting up here would be regarded as totally inevitable. Ever heard of Suez? Most thought the Tories were heading for a catastrophe at the next election in the immediate aftermath of that, two years later Mac the Knife actually increased the Tory majority.
Not inevitable that should be repeated, of course, not remotely, and most would suspect a defeat, but two years in which to recover position is a long time in politics.
Anyway, this is minor shit when it comes to a TLIA, please continue.
Good stuff.
Not as many as they'll take off the Tories. l think it would level out with those Tory gains, IMO.
Very exciting stuff. I think the unprecedented anti-Tory swing combined with Labour's not-much-better-than-OTL position (in fact it looks like it might be even worse) is, despite fears or celebrations of a wipeout, actually a recipe for a very different kind of 'FPTP has gone completely mad' to the ones we've seen in Andy's TLs. I don't imagine the Tories will be pleasantly surprised, but I also think there will be some results here and an overall picture that doesn't fully match the expectations one would have in this scenario.
So whether this covers just the night itself, or the formation of the new goverement too, I am more than on board. It'll be great to spend Christmas Day knowing I have at least one more present still to come.
I enjoyed the characterisation of Du Cann, by the way. Almost made me long for a little vignette of his premiership between 82 and 84. But this will certainly suffice.
So whether this covers just the night itself, or the formation of the new goverement too, I am more than on board. It'll be great to spend Christmas Day knowing I have at least one more present still to come.
I enjoyed the characterisation of Du Cann, by the way. Almost made me long for a little vignette of his premiership between 82 and 84. But this will certainly suffice.
I totally think this is a prequel to my "Clustershag" timeline. ... sorta.. I hope so anyway
Firstly, I'm delighted that you liked the title slide Iain, apologies that it was a bit 'rough-and-ready', but I'm fairly pleased with how well that it turned out.
Secondly, as the others have said, this is a great starting point thus far. I know that you're trying to go for the 'FPTP could be really bloody shite' approach that we've become so beloved of as of late, but I'm really pleased at how you've approached it during the time period. Labour still geriatric and wanting to rip themselves apart, the Tories holding out for 'Suez Crisis Two: Macmillan Boogaloo' and the Alliance dealing with the competing interests between Liberal, SDP and David Owen.
A fantastic approach to du Cann too, he's a truly fascinating figure and often underused in alt-hist.
I cannot wait to see more on Boxing Day!
Secondly, as the others have said, this is a great starting point thus far. I know that you're trying to go for the 'FPTP could be really bloody shite' approach that we've become so beloved of as of late, but I'm really pleased at how you've approached it during the time period. Labour still geriatric and wanting to rip themselves apart, the Tories holding out for 'Suez Crisis Two: Macmillan Boogaloo' and the Alliance dealing with the competing interests between Liberal, SDP and David Owen.
A fantastic approach to du Cann too, he's a truly fascinating figure and often underused in alt-hist.
I cannot wait to see more on Boxing Day!
BBC1 - Election 84
<title music and glaring CGI finishes>
David Dimbleby: Good evening and welcome to our election night result programme, we will be here until 4am with the fastest and most comprehensive results coverage of the night. Elections are a struggle for power, a battle, if you like, and they are usually held at the time of a Prime Ministers choosing. This election is unusual in that the Government has accomplished its full five year term and is now forced to have an election. This is understandable, because if our figures are right, the Government has lost this election and lost it in a manner that has not been seen in modern British politics. If our figures are right, then Mr du Cann's Conservatives will be reduced to a rump of around 70 MPs, losing them mainly to the two Alliance parties but also a considerable number to Mr Foot's Labour party. The actual final result is too close to call at the moment, but combined the Alliance parties will be the largest in the House of Commons, they may even be able to gain a small majority - which would be an extraordinary turnaround in British politics. Even more extraordinary is that in terms of the popular vote in the country, the Conservatives will be in third place behind Labour and the Alliance gaining only one quarter of all votes cast today.
Well, if elections are a battle, then our job tonight is to pick our way across the battlefield, to find out what has happened to victor and to vanquished. To assist me with this Peter Snow is here with amazing electronic gadgetry to show what is happening across the country and in the individual constituencies. Robin Day, without whom election nights in this country are not complete will be talking to panels of politicians and journalists.
Robin Day: I am merely a humble spear carrier in the army of democracy, but to aid me in my reading of the entrails. I have the first of several such trios, I have Mr Neil Kinnock of the Labour Party, Mr Cunningham of the Social Democratic wing of the Alliance and Mr Whitelaw of the Conservatives. Two of them, of course, have to be away to counts but Mr Whitelaw is standing down and has promised to be here until relieved. David.
DD: Out and about tonight, at counts, with the party leaders, at the party headquarters we have the biggest ever number of outside broadcast units ready to bring you results and reactions. Is tonight going to see famous heads roll? For instance will all the defectors to the SDP or their famous by-election winners retain their seats, Roy Jenkins at Hillhead, Shirley Williams at Crosby, we will be at both counts. Or if these exit polls are reflected in the results, will members of the former Thatcher Cabinet such as Sir Keith Joseph survive or even members of the current cabinet such as Home Secretary Peter Walker in Worcester or even Mr du Cann, himself in Taunton. We are at all those counts and many others including the seats that are traditionally first to declare such as Guildford, Torbay and Cheltenham - we have reporters at all those counts and a few more dark horses ready to bring you the first result. Selina Scott is in Guildford where David Howell is defending a 20,000 majority, Valerie Singleton in Torbay which is a much smaller constituency than before due to the boundary changes and Linda Alexander in Cheltenham which has grown due to the boundary changes and where there is a traditional Liberal challenge.
Now we are going to try and keep this simple, but this election won't be as easy to follow as the last one because all but 66 of the constituencies in the old parliament have been changed. The Boundary Commission whose job it is to see that the constituencies are all about the same size of 65,000 voters has been implemented and it is the most extensive redrawing of the political map since the great reform bill over 140 years ago. There are now 650 seats all together and the party with 326 will have a majority over all other parties. Now at the last election it was fairly easy to compare results with the previous election, this time we can't - so to see how the parties have done we have unscrambled all the votes cast in 1979 and worked out what would have happened if that election had been fought on the new boundaries. More about that in a moment, but first a forecast from Peter.
Peter Snow: First, David, I'm going to show a forecast of the whole House of Commons, here it goes.
Lib/SDP 318 Lab 238 Con 73 Others 26
As we can see, this is an extraordinary result and remember it is not based on any actual results yet, but on an exit poll of 4,500 people. Here are the changes in the number of theoretical seats in 1979 - the Alliance up an astounding 285 seats, the Labour party down 3 seats and the Conservatives down 283. There is the winning post with 326 seats and as we can see, the Alliance are close, but not past it.
Now in a handful of cases, the boundary changes have been such that whilst the name remains the same, the constituency has been awarded rather differently. The following were Conservative previously, but we have now awarded them to Labour
BASILDON
EALING NORTH
KINGSWOOD
LIVERPOOL GARSTON
NEWCASTLE NORTH
STRETFORD
THE WREKIN
So if Harry Greenaway wins in Ealing North, then that will come up as a Conservative gain, even though he has been the MP for the last five years, but if Hilary Benn, Tony Benn's son wins, we will show it as a Labour Hold. The following seats are held by Labour, but are now rated as Conservative
BIRMINGHAM ERDINGTON
BOLTON WEST
DULWICH
EDINBURGH CENTRAL
GLASGOW CATHCART
KEIGHLEY
KETTERING
NEWCASTLE CENTRAL
NORWICH NORTH
Finally, Richard Wainright won Colne Valley for the Liberals last time, after boundary changes we think it would have been a Labour seat. There are bound to be one or two surprises, even with this exit poll and the BBC/ITV study can't bank on being right every time.
DD: Normally, we would be discussing how the result of the election is decided in the marginals, seats where the parties run so close that this is where the constituencies change hands. But tonight is extraordinary, so here's Peter with the battleground. Peter
PS: Well, we've had to be a little inventive here. Normally elections are decided on the swing between the Labour party and the Conservative party and we can use the Swingometer. Now we have three swings which are significant, that between the Conservatives and Labour, that between the Conservatives and the Alliance and that between Labour and the Alliance and each of those swings is signifcant. Take for example the new seat of Crawley, we believe than in 1979, the Labour party would have gained 36% of the vote, the Conservatives would have got 44% of the vote and the Liberals and the National Front the remainder. A marginal seat. Now it is a 3 party race this time and the Conservatives are down 18% from their last result in the exit poll so normally that would mean the seat would go Labour. However, those votes aren't going to the Labour party according to the exit poll but are going to the Alliance - so if the exit poll is correct, and it is an if, the Social Democrats will win Crawley.
DD: So how do you show that without something from the set of Doctor Who?
PS: What we have is the Battlegrounds, three of them, one for each party. If the polls are correct, we won't be seeing much of the Conservative battleground, but here it is
OXFORD EAST
BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD
CUNNINGHAME N
CORBY
NOTTINGHAM E
HERTS WEST
DERBYSHIRE S
LEICS N W
They are red at the moment, but if the conservatives win them, they will turn blue. Now we've chosen 16 of them to watch.
Now here we have the Labour battleground, we've chosen 80 seats on this, it's quite a big one, it starts here with Lincoln and it runs through to Tynemouth. Whilst Labour are down slightly on the last election, the Conservatives are down more and the Liberal vote is very depressed in some of these marginals, so we predict some Labour gains. We've also placed this separate section with the SDP defectors on it, some of those are standing in traditionally safe Labour seats and they may well not hold on.
Finally, we have the Alliance battle wall, it is enormous. We have placed over 350 seats on it, mainly from the Conservatives but also from Labour as well. There are pages and pages of them, so I can't show you them all. So what we have done is created this target, like an archery target, the more shots on target the more gold it will become, each ring represents around 40 gains for the Alliance, so if they start getting shots in the inner two rings they are on target with the exit poll and if they get in the bullseye, they are gaining seats which should give them a majority.
DD: One of the other things we will do is keep in touch with all four party leaders throughout the night. We go first, to the Prime Minister's constituency of Taunton with Nicholas Winchell.
Nicholas Winchell: Good evening from a busy Taunton County Hall where the count has been going on for some time now, the final ballot boxes have just arrived from the more far-flung polling stations and we haven't got much idea of the turnout yet, although people tell us it is up slightly in the boxes opened so far which are mainly from the town of Taunton. Mr du Cann isn't here yet, he's with friends at a local hotel, but there is a crowd awaiting his arrival including, inevitably, some Falklands protestors.
DD: It has been said that he is in some danger, any indications as yet?
NW: Well, not really, the boxes being opened are the Taunton town boxes and they always trend towards the Alliance anyway, but the Conservatives say that they think they are still in the race. We are expecting a close result around 2am.
DD: What time will Mr du Cann come to the count?
NW: We are told that he will probably appear just before the result, he's in constant contact with Smith Square to see what is happening around the country.
DD: Over to Ebbw Vale now with Brian Hanrahan
Brian Hanrahan: If there is one place where Michael Foot can expect a good result tonight, it is here in Ebbw Vale, which has been renamed the Blaenau Gwent constituency. He had a 14,000 majority last time and the boundary changes have made it even more of a Labour stronghold. The first ballot papers are now in, but not all have arrived yet. He's spending the early part of the night at his agent's cottage as his own constituency home doesn't have television. We expect the result somewhere around 1:30am and we hope to talk to him then.
DD: And Kate Adey with Roy Jenkins in Glasgow Hillhead.
Kate Adey: Welcome to Glasgow Hillhead, Mr Jenkins is defending a majority of just 2,000 at the by-election, but the early indications are a very hard campaign has paid off for him. Nothing has been taken for granted, his supporters were out at 5am this morning pushing 30,000 leaflets through letter boxes to try and gain last minute votes. It has been a fair day in Glasgow and turnout has been said to be brisk.
DD: David Steel is, of course, going to his count in Selkirk. Michael Cole spoke to him just as the polls were closing?
Michael Cole: Mr Steel, it looks like a historic result for the Alliance, but possibly not quite enough for Government. How do you feel?
David Steel: I told people to "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government" and if the exit polls are correct, if what I've been hearing all day is correct, then we will be the next Government. Whether that is on our own with a majority, or in some other manner we will find out as the evening unfolds. What we have seen is a total rejection of the two old parties and a willingness for the British people to embrace a new politics.
MC: Any thoughts on the large number of inexperienced new MPs you will have?
DS: Our people are not that inexperienced, many have held other offices, many have different backgrounds from outside politics. As I said throughout the campaign, the experienced parties haven't done that well at governing the country over the last decade.
MC: Thank you Mr Steel, we will be speaking again later.
DD: Now, we will just go over to our panel, however, we now have the results of the exit poll as percentages of the popular vote. We think that Mr Steel's Alliance will get 40% of the vote, Mr Foot and the Labour party will get 32% of the vote and that Mr du Cann's Conservatives will get 25% of the vote. Extraordinary, but not unpredicted by the polls. Robin.
RD: 25%, Mr Whitelaw, the worst result for the conservatives in modern times. Glad to be out of it?
Willie Whitelaw: It is an extraordinary poll, but it is in line with the other opinion polls and it is in line with last months local government elections. However, it is a tribute to Edward and to the voluntary party about how they have rallied around and stuck it out. This time last year, we were in the low teens in the polls, now we are on 25%, I think that is because of the abilities of Edward to mollify public fears and show that despite everything we have rebounded from the Falklands debacle.
RD: But it is still a terrible result. 75 MPs? Can you come back from that?
WW: The Conservative party has come through many set backs and many crises and I would remind you that this time last year, you said on this programme that it would be a total wipe out. It isn't going to be that, we won't even be reduced to the level of the old Liberal Party.
RD: You'll need more than one taxi then? Mr Kinnock, you haven't won, in fact you've lost even more ground. Surely with the government collapsing like this, you should have been swept into power.
NK: It looks like we will gain seats from the Conservatives tonight.
RD: As many as you will lose to the Alliance?
NK: Probably quite a few more and I don't believe that all those defectors will hold their seats, I think most will come back to Labour. What is interesting, Mr Day, is if the polls are correct is what Mr Steel will do, will he allow the remnants of the hated Tories to prop him up?
RD: That is an interesting question and maybe I'll ask Mr Cunningham something like that, but I was asking a different question, Mr Kinnock, why haven't you been swept into power?
NK: I think it comes down to how our defence policy was viewed, in the post Falklands situation, there has been a great deal of scrutiny of defence and whilst I will always say that our policy would have been more capable of defending the islands as Jim Callaghan proved in 1978, there were aspects of it that make it look weak.
RD: So just defence? Nothing else like extremism?
NK: I think some people were too complacent, even when the Alliance was winning every by-election with huge majorities, when they were hitting 50% in the polls, month in month out, there were a lot of people who said "Come the election, they'll come to us". I didn't believe that and Michael didn't as well, but a lot of people did.
RD: I see, Mr Cunningham, confident of victory?
George Cunningham: Myself or for the party?
RD: Both?
GC: My agent tells me that I should have a decent majority over Labour and your exit poll tells me that it looks like the mould of British politics hasn't just been broken but smashed to smithereens. Neil is wrong, by the way, extremism does matter, it came up on doorstep across London time and time again.
RD: But not a majority?
GC: It is a little disappointing if we don't make it, but I'm told that one is still possible. However, 300 seats for the Alliance is no small matter.
RD: Any regrets?
GC: I wish we hadn't slammed the door on all defectors, just the Tory ones after the Falklands. I understand why, our candidates were in place and working, but I think that there were people left in Labour who could have made a difference.
RD: Well, Mr Kinnock, you still have some enemies within. David.
DD: Well, we are getting to the position where one or two seats are saying that they are nearly ready to declare, but none of them are on point at the moment, here's the scenes in Torbay, where they do look quite close. Valerie, are you ready?
Valerie Singleton: We are close, but I don't think we can say we are quite ready to declare yet. However, what we have seen looking at pile of votes and looking at the faces of those watching the count take place is that there has been a massive swing to the Liberals and that they seem extremely confident they have taken the seat with a large majority. I don't think there's much doubt about this one and there hasn't been since the first boxes were opened. Maybe 2-3 minutes left here. David.
DD: So the Torbay result isn't far off and I understand Guildford is also very close, but Torbay looks like it has won the race. Robin?
RD: Well, Mr Cunningham, looks like you have taken Torbay, what do you think of that?
GC: Looking at the faces in the hall, it looks fairly certain. It feels very good, Robin, but seeing the majority will be interesting. We've never had Torbay off our list of seats to gain but seats like Guildford with that 20,000 majority are the ones that will really count.
RD: Mr Whitelaw?
WW: I feel for all the candidates who are standing and who, often through no fault of their own are being crushed by this Alliance wave. Sir Frederic has put in decades of devoted service...
DD: We are going to Torbay now, they are on the stage. Valerie.
VS: The returning officer is about to read the result
Voiceover: .. votes cast for each candidate is as follows: Bennett, eighteen thousand, three hundred and forty five. Mitchell, twenty seven thousand <CHEERS> twenty seven thousand one hundred and ninety. <MASSIVE CHEERS>
TORBAY - LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE
Murray Seven Hundred and Twenty Two, Rackley Four Thousand, Five Hundred and Seventy Five. The number of spoilt papers cast was ninety seven and I therefore declare the aforesaid Michael Norman Mitchell has been duly elected as the member of parliament for Torbay.
VS: Massive cheering of the result here, even the handful of Labour supporters are joining in the applause for Michael Mitchell. The Liberals did say to me that the seat was in the bag, but they thought more like a six thousand majority. They are absolutely exultant, first they took the council and now they have the parliamentary seat. David.
DD: Peter, first blood to the Liberals, what does that tell us?
PS: Let's look at the figures here.
TORBAY
LIB GAIN FROM CON Maj 8,845
Mitchell Lib 27,190 53%
Bennett Con 18,345 36%
Rackley Lab 4,575 9%
Murray Ind 722 1%
Turnout 74%
PS: Now if this is indicative, then this is very good news for the Alliance because the swing is sufficient to give them a small majority. The Liberal vote is, roughly, because these are only estimates around 30% up on the last election.
DD: Thirty percent? That's a by-election swing are we going to see those all night?
PS: If the exit poll is correct and all the other opinion polls, then we will, but it is not all from the Conservatives, the Labour vote has dropped by around 10% as well. This is slightly out of line with the exit polls, it is a better result for the Liberals than we would have expected.
DD: How far out?
PS: It is just outside of the margin of error, but Torbay has been a long term Liberal target and they have made big gains on the council.
DD: So the first result is a gain for the Liberals in Torbay, we, we have of course been expecting this, but the reality of the avalanche happening is somehow different to the opinion polls we have been talking about for two years now. Robin.
<title music and glaring CGI finishes>
David Dimbleby: Good evening and welcome to our election night result programme, we will be here until 4am with the fastest and most comprehensive results coverage of the night. Elections are a struggle for power, a battle, if you like, and they are usually held at the time of a Prime Ministers choosing. This election is unusual in that the Government has accomplished its full five year term and is now forced to have an election. This is understandable, because if our figures are right, the Government has lost this election and lost it in a manner that has not been seen in modern British politics. If our figures are right, then Mr du Cann's Conservatives will be reduced to a rump of around 70 MPs, losing them mainly to the two Alliance parties but also a considerable number to Mr Foot's Labour party. The actual final result is too close to call at the moment, but combined the Alliance parties will be the largest in the House of Commons, they may even be able to gain a small majority - which would be an extraordinary turnaround in British politics. Even more extraordinary is that in terms of the popular vote in the country, the Conservatives will be in third place behind Labour and the Alliance gaining only one quarter of all votes cast today.
Well, if elections are a battle, then our job tonight is to pick our way across the battlefield, to find out what has happened to victor and to vanquished. To assist me with this Peter Snow is here with amazing electronic gadgetry to show what is happening across the country and in the individual constituencies. Robin Day, without whom election nights in this country are not complete will be talking to panels of politicians and journalists.
Robin Day: I am merely a humble spear carrier in the army of democracy, but to aid me in my reading of the entrails. I have the first of several such trios, I have Mr Neil Kinnock of the Labour Party, Mr Cunningham of the Social Democratic wing of the Alliance and Mr Whitelaw of the Conservatives. Two of them, of course, have to be away to counts but Mr Whitelaw is standing down and has promised to be here until relieved. David.
DD: Out and about tonight, at counts, with the party leaders, at the party headquarters we have the biggest ever number of outside broadcast units ready to bring you results and reactions. Is tonight going to see famous heads roll? For instance will all the defectors to the SDP or their famous by-election winners retain their seats, Roy Jenkins at Hillhead, Shirley Williams at Crosby, we will be at both counts. Or if these exit polls are reflected in the results, will members of the former Thatcher Cabinet such as Sir Keith Joseph survive or even members of the current cabinet such as Home Secretary Peter Walker in Worcester or even Mr du Cann, himself in Taunton. We are at all those counts and many others including the seats that are traditionally first to declare such as Guildford, Torbay and Cheltenham - we have reporters at all those counts and a few more dark horses ready to bring you the first result. Selina Scott is in Guildford where David Howell is defending a 20,000 majority, Valerie Singleton in Torbay which is a much smaller constituency than before due to the boundary changes and Linda Alexander in Cheltenham which has grown due to the boundary changes and where there is a traditional Liberal challenge.
Now we are going to try and keep this simple, but this election won't be as easy to follow as the last one because all but 66 of the constituencies in the old parliament have been changed. The Boundary Commission whose job it is to see that the constituencies are all about the same size of 65,000 voters has been implemented and it is the most extensive redrawing of the political map since the great reform bill over 140 years ago. There are now 650 seats all together and the party with 326 will have a majority over all other parties. Now at the last election it was fairly easy to compare results with the previous election, this time we can't - so to see how the parties have done we have unscrambled all the votes cast in 1979 and worked out what would have happened if that election had been fought on the new boundaries. More about that in a moment, but first a forecast from Peter.
Peter Snow: First, David, I'm going to show a forecast of the whole House of Commons, here it goes.
Lib/SDP 318 Lab 238 Con 73 Others 26
As we can see, this is an extraordinary result and remember it is not based on any actual results yet, but on an exit poll of 4,500 people. Here are the changes in the number of theoretical seats in 1979 - the Alliance up an astounding 285 seats, the Labour party down 3 seats and the Conservatives down 283. There is the winning post with 326 seats and as we can see, the Alliance are close, but not past it.
Now in a handful of cases, the boundary changes have been such that whilst the name remains the same, the constituency has been awarded rather differently. The following were Conservative previously, but we have now awarded them to Labour
BASILDON
EALING NORTH
KINGSWOOD
LIVERPOOL GARSTON
NEWCASTLE NORTH
STRETFORD
THE WREKIN
So if Harry Greenaway wins in Ealing North, then that will come up as a Conservative gain, even though he has been the MP for the last five years, but if Hilary Benn, Tony Benn's son wins, we will show it as a Labour Hold. The following seats are held by Labour, but are now rated as Conservative
BIRMINGHAM ERDINGTON
BOLTON WEST
DULWICH
EDINBURGH CENTRAL
GLASGOW CATHCART
KEIGHLEY
KETTERING
NEWCASTLE CENTRAL
NORWICH NORTH
Finally, Richard Wainright won Colne Valley for the Liberals last time, after boundary changes we think it would have been a Labour seat. There are bound to be one or two surprises, even with this exit poll and the BBC/ITV study can't bank on being right every time.
DD: Normally, we would be discussing how the result of the election is decided in the marginals, seats where the parties run so close that this is where the constituencies change hands. But tonight is extraordinary, so here's Peter with the battleground. Peter
PS: Well, we've had to be a little inventive here. Normally elections are decided on the swing between the Labour party and the Conservative party and we can use the Swingometer. Now we have three swings which are significant, that between the Conservatives and Labour, that between the Conservatives and the Alliance and that between Labour and the Alliance and each of those swings is signifcant. Take for example the new seat of Crawley, we believe than in 1979, the Labour party would have gained 36% of the vote, the Conservatives would have got 44% of the vote and the Liberals and the National Front the remainder. A marginal seat. Now it is a 3 party race this time and the Conservatives are down 18% from their last result in the exit poll so normally that would mean the seat would go Labour. However, those votes aren't going to the Labour party according to the exit poll but are going to the Alliance - so if the exit poll is correct, and it is an if, the Social Democrats will win Crawley.
DD: So how do you show that without something from the set of Doctor Who?
PS: What we have is the Battlegrounds, three of them, one for each party. If the polls are correct, we won't be seeing much of the Conservative battleground, but here it is
OXFORD EAST
BIRMINGHAM NORTHFIELD
CUNNINGHAME N
CORBY
NOTTINGHAM E
HERTS WEST
DERBYSHIRE S
LEICS N W
They are red at the moment, but if the conservatives win them, they will turn blue. Now we've chosen 16 of them to watch.
Now here we have the Labour battleground, we've chosen 80 seats on this, it's quite a big one, it starts here with Lincoln and it runs through to Tynemouth. Whilst Labour are down slightly on the last election, the Conservatives are down more and the Liberal vote is very depressed in some of these marginals, so we predict some Labour gains. We've also placed this separate section with the SDP defectors on it, some of those are standing in traditionally safe Labour seats and they may well not hold on.
Finally, we have the Alliance battle wall, it is enormous. We have placed over 350 seats on it, mainly from the Conservatives but also from Labour as well. There are pages and pages of them, so I can't show you them all. So what we have done is created this target, like an archery target, the more shots on target the more gold it will become, each ring represents around 40 gains for the Alliance, so if they start getting shots in the inner two rings they are on target with the exit poll and if they get in the bullseye, they are gaining seats which should give them a majority.
DD: One of the other things we will do is keep in touch with all four party leaders throughout the night. We go first, to the Prime Minister's constituency of Taunton with Nicholas Winchell.
Nicholas Winchell: Good evening from a busy Taunton County Hall where the count has been going on for some time now, the final ballot boxes have just arrived from the more far-flung polling stations and we haven't got much idea of the turnout yet, although people tell us it is up slightly in the boxes opened so far which are mainly from the town of Taunton. Mr du Cann isn't here yet, he's with friends at a local hotel, but there is a crowd awaiting his arrival including, inevitably, some Falklands protestors.
DD: It has been said that he is in some danger, any indications as yet?
NW: Well, not really, the boxes being opened are the Taunton town boxes and they always trend towards the Alliance anyway, but the Conservatives say that they think they are still in the race. We are expecting a close result around 2am.
DD: What time will Mr du Cann come to the count?
NW: We are told that he will probably appear just before the result, he's in constant contact with Smith Square to see what is happening around the country.
DD: Over to Ebbw Vale now with Brian Hanrahan
Brian Hanrahan: If there is one place where Michael Foot can expect a good result tonight, it is here in Ebbw Vale, which has been renamed the Blaenau Gwent constituency. He had a 14,000 majority last time and the boundary changes have made it even more of a Labour stronghold. The first ballot papers are now in, but not all have arrived yet. He's spending the early part of the night at his agent's cottage as his own constituency home doesn't have television. We expect the result somewhere around 1:30am and we hope to talk to him then.
DD: And Kate Adey with Roy Jenkins in Glasgow Hillhead.
Kate Adey: Welcome to Glasgow Hillhead, Mr Jenkins is defending a majority of just 2,000 at the by-election, but the early indications are a very hard campaign has paid off for him. Nothing has been taken for granted, his supporters were out at 5am this morning pushing 30,000 leaflets through letter boxes to try and gain last minute votes. It has been a fair day in Glasgow and turnout has been said to be brisk.
DD: David Steel is, of course, going to his count in Selkirk. Michael Cole spoke to him just as the polls were closing?
Michael Cole: Mr Steel, it looks like a historic result for the Alliance, but possibly not quite enough for Government. How do you feel?
David Steel: I told people to "Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government" and if the exit polls are correct, if what I've been hearing all day is correct, then we will be the next Government. Whether that is on our own with a majority, or in some other manner we will find out as the evening unfolds. What we have seen is a total rejection of the two old parties and a willingness for the British people to embrace a new politics.
MC: Any thoughts on the large number of inexperienced new MPs you will have?
DS: Our people are not that inexperienced, many have held other offices, many have different backgrounds from outside politics. As I said throughout the campaign, the experienced parties haven't done that well at governing the country over the last decade.
MC: Thank you Mr Steel, we will be speaking again later.
DD: Now, we will just go over to our panel, however, we now have the results of the exit poll as percentages of the popular vote. We think that Mr Steel's Alliance will get 40% of the vote, Mr Foot and the Labour party will get 32% of the vote and that Mr du Cann's Conservatives will get 25% of the vote. Extraordinary, but not unpredicted by the polls. Robin.
RD: 25%, Mr Whitelaw, the worst result for the conservatives in modern times. Glad to be out of it?
Willie Whitelaw: It is an extraordinary poll, but it is in line with the other opinion polls and it is in line with last months local government elections. However, it is a tribute to Edward and to the voluntary party about how they have rallied around and stuck it out. This time last year, we were in the low teens in the polls, now we are on 25%, I think that is because of the abilities of Edward to mollify public fears and show that despite everything we have rebounded from the Falklands debacle.
RD: But it is still a terrible result. 75 MPs? Can you come back from that?
WW: The Conservative party has come through many set backs and many crises and I would remind you that this time last year, you said on this programme that it would be a total wipe out. It isn't going to be that, we won't even be reduced to the level of the old Liberal Party.
RD: You'll need more than one taxi then? Mr Kinnock, you haven't won, in fact you've lost even more ground. Surely with the government collapsing like this, you should have been swept into power.
NK: It looks like we will gain seats from the Conservatives tonight.
RD: As many as you will lose to the Alliance?
NK: Probably quite a few more and I don't believe that all those defectors will hold their seats, I think most will come back to Labour. What is interesting, Mr Day, is if the polls are correct is what Mr Steel will do, will he allow the remnants of the hated Tories to prop him up?
RD: That is an interesting question and maybe I'll ask Mr Cunningham something like that, but I was asking a different question, Mr Kinnock, why haven't you been swept into power?
NK: I think it comes down to how our defence policy was viewed, in the post Falklands situation, there has been a great deal of scrutiny of defence and whilst I will always say that our policy would have been more capable of defending the islands as Jim Callaghan proved in 1978, there were aspects of it that make it look weak.
RD: So just defence? Nothing else like extremism?
NK: I think some people were too complacent, even when the Alliance was winning every by-election with huge majorities, when they were hitting 50% in the polls, month in month out, there were a lot of people who said "Come the election, they'll come to us". I didn't believe that and Michael didn't as well, but a lot of people did.
RD: I see, Mr Cunningham, confident of victory?
George Cunningham: Myself or for the party?
RD: Both?
GC: My agent tells me that I should have a decent majority over Labour and your exit poll tells me that it looks like the mould of British politics hasn't just been broken but smashed to smithereens. Neil is wrong, by the way, extremism does matter, it came up on doorstep across London time and time again.
RD: But not a majority?
GC: It is a little disappointing if we don't make it, but I'm told that one is still possible. However, 300 seats for the Alliance is no small matter.
RD: Any regrets?
GC: I wish we hadn't slammed the door on all defectors, just the Tory ones after the Falklands. I understand why, our candidates were in place and working, but I think that there were people left in Labour who could have made a difference.
RD: Well, Mr Kinnock, you still have some enemies within. David.
DD: Well, we are getting to the position where one or two seats are saying that they are nearly ready to declare, but none of them are on point at the moment, here's the scenes in Torbay, where they do look quite close. Valerie, are you ready?
Valerie Singleton: We are close, but I don't think we can say we are quite ready to declare yet. However, what we have seen looking at pile of votes and looking at the faces of those watching the count take place is that there has been a massive swing to the Liberals and that they seem extremely confident they have taken the seat with a large majority. I don't think there's much doubt about this one and there hasn't been since the first boxes were opened. Maybe 2-3 minutes left here. David.
DD: So the Torbay result isn't far off and I understand Guildford is also very close, but Torbay looks like it has won the race. Robin?
RD: Well, Mr Cunningham, looks like you have taken Torbay, what do you think of that?
GC: Looking at the faces in the hall, it looks fairly certain. It feels very good, Robin, but seeing the majority will be interesting. We've never had Torbay off our list of seats to gain but seats like Guildford with that 20,000 majority are the ones that will really count.
RD: Mr Whitelaw?
WW: I feel for all the candidates who are standing and who, often through no fault of their own are being crushed by this Alliance wave. Sir Frederic has put in decades of devoted service...
DD: We are going to Torbay now, they are on the stage. Valerie.
VS: The returning officer is about to read the result
Voiceover: .. votes cast for each candidate is as follows: Bennett, eighteen thousand, three hundred and forty five. Mitchell, twenty seven thousand <CHEERS> twenty seven thousand one hundred and ninety. <MASSIVE CHEERS>
TORBAY - LIBERAL GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE
Murray Seven Hundred and Twenty Two, Rackley Four Thousand, Five Hundred and Seventy Five. The number of spoilt papers cast was ninety seven and I therefore declare the aforesaid Michael Norman Mitchell has been duly elected as the member of parliament for Torbay.
VS: Massive cheering of the result here, even the handful of Labour supporters are joining in the applause for Michael Mitchell. The Liberals did say to me that the seat was in the bag, but they thought more like a six thousand majority. They are absolutely exultant, first they took the council and now they have the parliamentary seat. David.
DD: Peter, first blood to the Liberals, what does that tell us?
PS: Let's look at the figures here.
TORBAY
LIB GAIN FROM CON Maj 8,845
Mitchell Lib 27,190 53%
Bennett Con 18,345 36%
Rackley Lab 4,575 9%
Murray Ind 722 1%
Turnout 74%
PS: Now if this is indicative, then this is very good news for the Alliance because the swing is sufficient to give them a small majority. The Liberal vote is, roughly, because these are only estimates around 30% up on the last election.
DD: Thirty percent? That's a by-election swing are we going to see those all night?
PS: If the exit poll is correct and all the other opinion polls, then we will, but it is not all from the Conservatives, the Labour vote has dropped by around 10% as well. This is slightly out of line with the exit polls, it is a better result for the Liberals than we would have expected.
DD: How far out?
PS: It is just outside of the margin of error, but Torbay has been a long term Liberal target and they have made big gains on the council.
DD: So the first result is a gain for the Liberals in Torbay, we, we have of course been expecting this, but the reality of the avalanche happening is somehow different to the opinion polls we have been talking about for two years now. Robin.
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