Chapter I
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I’ve lost the script, Oppo. Thanks a lot.
Sorry TLIPOT intro person thing, I will prepare a new one for you.
Okay. What the hell are you trying to do?
It’s a timeline dealing with the 1996 election, as you could probably tell from the title card.
I have to ask you if you will get this done in time because that's what everyone does in these.
Probably not, as I feel unusually overconfident.
You do realise that the 1996 election was so boring! The only TLs covering it are Canadian political TLs! Lol Bob Dull is so old!
True, but a boring election can be made exciting with a hint of F E A R A N D L O A T H I N G. I’ll be adding a tanker truck full of Tabasco sauce onto a rice cake (find more of my recipes in my new cookbook).
Bob Dole is upset that you think Bob Dole is boring! Bob Doooooooooooooooooooooooole!
Teve Torbes wants to tell you about the flat tax!
Get me my sax!
Launch the pitchforks!
Does anyone have a plaid shirt?
NAFTA!

What have I done? I’ll just post a witty quote I got on the internet to have everyone forget this. I need to get a fire extinguisher.

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“Politics and war are remarkably similar situations.”
-Newt Gingrich

If 1992 had brought in a new era of liberalism, 1994 was the comeback of conservatism. Bob Dole’s Republicans would pick up eight seats in Arizona, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maine. The House would be an even bigger victory, with Newt Gingrich becoming the first Republican Speaker since the Eisenhower administration. Tom Foley would also become the first Speaker to lose re-election since the Civil War. This was not good news for Bill Clinton coming in to the 1996 election.

Republicans hoped to run retired General Colin Powell, a figure from the Gulf War and the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, but he declined, not being interested in electoral politics. Plus, he was pro-choice, and that would not go on well with the base. There was also Jack Kemp, a former football player, Congressman, HUD Secretary, and 1988 candidate. Kemp was popular with conservatives, but declined to run, which was seen as an odd move. With Powell and Kemp out, the natural front-runner would be Bob Dole, the new Senate Majority Leader, Richard Nixon’s hatchet man, Gerald Ford’s running mate in 1976, and a candidate in 1980 & 1988. With a long career, Dole was the personification of the “Washington insiders” that the Republicans campaigned against, and he was 73. It was clear that once Dole announced his run, the challenge would be to find the leading rival.

Tons of names were brought up. Speaker Gingrich, former Vice President Dan Quayle, Senator Al D’Amato, Governor George W. Bush, former Secretaries of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, former Governor Carroll Campbell, Governor William Weld, Senator John McCain, and many more (the total number was more than the populations of some small Caribbean countries) were all floated as alternates, but none ran.

Ten candidates would try to take down the man from Kansas. There was tire executive Morry Taylor, who you could tell wasn’t a factor when you read his book Kill all the lawyers – and other ways to fix the government. Of course, if you wanted a fringe conservative, you were spoiled for choice. Orange County Congressman Bob Dorman, who Al Franken notably said about, “having Al D'Amato leading an ethics investigation is like getting Bob Dornan to head up a mental health task force.” There was Alan Keyes, a Reagan administration official who had returned after two failed Senate bids in Maryland. Steve Forbes, a man who had the charisma of a shy first-grader, who ran most of his campaign on his own money and the flat tax. Back from last time was Pat Buchanan, the Nixon and Reagan strategist who felt that America should return culturally to the 1950s, who was also the most electorally successful Holocaust denier.

Then, there were the experienced moderates in the race. Take Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, someone respected by almost everyone in politics, which labeled him as a RINO in 1996. He’d drop out before the first vote was cast. Former Secretary of Labor Lynn Morley Martin also ran, but dropped out after a weak performance at Ames. Spector’s fellow Senator, foreign policy expert Dick Lugar, had the same problem. However, at least those two actually were able to campaign. Governor and former Senator Pete Wilson of California while having taken down Jerry Brown and Dianne Feinstein, had to almost immediately stop his campaign after throat surgery. He couldn’t even talk for months, which meant that the race had ignored him.

After a bit on the campaign trail, it was clear that there were two serious rivals to Dole, who weren’t just running for a book deal. The first was Texas Senator Phil Gramm, a former Democrat and a strong supporter of limited government spending, running to the right of Dole. The second was plaid shirt enthusiast, former Education Secretary, and former Governor of Tennessee Lamar Alexander. He was quite similar to Dole on the issues, but portrayed himself as a “Washington outsider.”

The first test of the campaign was the Ames Straw Poll. Bob Dole had been the favorite, being from the nearby state of Kansas, and having won the caucus in 1988. Of course, the pundits gave the classic “don’t be surprised if it’s Gramm that wins” line. However, the winner wasn’t Dole. It wasn’t Gramm. It was Pat Buchanan. Pat Buchanan, the man who was seen as a far-right lunatic just a short time ago. Lamar Alexander also polled higher, which some claimed was responsible for Dole’s loss. While Dole and Gramm did damage control, it was clear that “Pitchfork Pat” was a serious candidate.

There was big news out of Canada as well. Quebec voted to become an independent country. This would put trade for New Englanders in jeopardy. Ross Perot, who got 19% in 1992, would found a new “Reform Party.” Former Colorado Governor Dick Lamm ran, but when the FEC said that only Perot would access to large federal funds, the Texan entered the race. Lamm dropped out, but promised to stay active in the party. President Clinton would also get primary challengers in actor Sean Penn (running to Clinton’s left) and former Pennsylvania Governor Robert Casey (running to Clinton’s right). The two campaigns would work out an alliance to prevent Clinton from getting a majority, with Casey staying out of favorable Penn states and vice versa.

The first contest would be Louisiana, with all candidates except Keyes, Gramm, and Buchanan were not participating. Gramm was expected winner, but his support with the Religious Right was destroyed after author James Dobson said after speaking with the Texas Senator, “I walked into that meeting fully expecting to support Phil Gramm for President. Now I don't think I'd vote for him if he was the last man standing.” Buchanan’s die-hard supporters turned out in large numbers, overpowering the greater amounts of money and infrastructure of Gramm. Buchanan won by three points. Gramm decided to drop out, with his Iowa polling going down the shitter.

Iowa was imperative to win for Bob Dole, having won the caucus by a large margin in 1988 against an incumbent Vice President. Unfortunately, polls showed the race could go to him, Buchanan, Alexander, or even Steve Forbes (who had gained some of Gramm’s deficit hawks along with the endorsement of Jack Kemp). Many personally believed that Alan Keyes would split the religious backers of Buchanan, important in Iowa. Lamar Alexander was campaigning vigorously, and he got the endorsement of the most important Republican in Iowa, Governor Terry Branstad. Ultimately, Buchanan would get another upset in the early primaries. Dole had been hit hard. Many of his backers immediately jumped ship to Alexander, with many asking the Majority Leader to drop out to prevent Buchanan or Forbes to become the nominee. Dole refused to leave the race, ignoring New Hampshire and going straight to Super Tuesday.
 
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Chapter II
“Sometimes when people are under stress, they hate to think, and it's the time when they most need to think.”
-Bill Clinton

New Hampshire wasn’t expected to be that exciting of a contest. Buchanan was expected to win, based on his strong 1992 result and favorable polling. Bob Dole had invested practically no money in the state. The main rival to Buchanan was seemingly Lamar Alexander (judging by tons of red Lamar! signs), but Steve Forbes also was seen favorably, with his message of a flat tax popular in the “Live Free or Die State.” Buchanan would take New Hampshire, as expected, but by a smaller margin than many thought. Second was a near tie between Forbes and Alexander, which some thought was a result of Bob Dole having a stronger finish.

The Democrats would also have some early primaries. President Clinton did little to no campaigning, leaving his surrogates to go to Iowa and New Hampshire. Iowa was a state with Casey on the ballot. As Clinton had the endorsement of Tom Harkin and was the incumbent, the only real question was how successful the former Governor of Pennsylvania would be. The answer was not promising, with Casey taking only 23% of the vote. New Hampshire, a Penn state, was favorable anti-incumbent territory in the 1952, 1968, and 1992 primaries. Penn was believed to have a greater chance at winning, rallying against “Clinton’s trampling over our civil liberties.” Clinton put greater money in the state, knowing how Buchanan's strong showing hurt Bush. Penn would have a slightly better showing than Buchanan, with 41% of the popular vote.

Before Super Tuesday, the Republicans had a few minor contests. Steve Forbes would take wins in Delaware and Arizona by investing heavily while others ignored them. North Dakota would be won by Bob Dole, a badly needed win. On the other hand, their southern neighbor voted for Buchanan. An important contest would be South Carolina, which had solidified Reagan and Bush’s place as the front-runner. The race was a contest between the two Southerners, Buchanan and Alexander. The political commentator had made a strong showing in the 1992 primary. Alexander, meanwhile, had the support of most of the state party. It would seem that Buchanan’s magic campaign couldn’t take South Carolina, giving the state to the former Education Secretary. The much lower-profile Wyoming and Puerto Rico contests would go to Bob Dole.

Super Tuesday was hyped up significantly by the media and the campaigns. Republicans would have ten races and Democrats would have twelve. The early returns came in from New England, where Lamar Alexander would take Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, while Pat Buchanan would score an upset in Maine. Soon after that would be Maryland and Georgia, which would go for Alexander and Buchanan respectively. Moving out West, there would be victories for Bob Dole in Colorado and Pat Buchanan in Minnesota. Finally, the last contest to have returns would be Washington, which would give Buchanan his final victory of the night. President Clinton would win almost all of the contests easily, with only North Dakota and Vermont being difficult wins. In North Dakota, Clinton was not on the ballot, but he won with write-in votes. In Vermont, Congressman Bernie Sanders said that, “Sean Penn has enlivened the Democratic Party”, but refused to endorse any candidate. Still, Penn claimed a moral victory in a Burlington “victory rally”. Unfortunately for the “Democrat’s Odd Couple”, the campaign was essentially over for. The Republicans would still have a difficult fight.

Richard Lugar would withdraw (you’d be forgiven if you forgot he was running), losing Vermont, a state he needed to win. Buchanan, Alexander, Forbes, Dole were the only candidates still in with a chance at winning. Forbes and Dole were both encouraged to drop out, but both stayed in. Just two days after Super Tuesday, New York would vote. The expected winner would be Bob Dole or Lamar Alexander, with both candidates launching ads at each other. Senator Al D’Amato remained neutral as the two battled it out. However, with the two taking away at each other, a third candidate would win; Steve Forbes, with several ties to New York and having the endorsement of Jack Kemp. Bob Dole dropped out immediately after that devastating loss. Right after New York, Missouri would vote for Pat Buchanan, proving he could win without Dole and Alexander splitting their votes.

At this time, many Reaganite members of the Republican Party would endorse Forbes’ campaign. Forbes’ showing would be tested in the March 12th primaries, which were primarily in the South. Forbes would take Florida over Alexander, and Alexander would take his home state of Tennessee along with Oregon. However, that would not be enough. Buchanan would take Louisiana's primary, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Texas. At that point, it was very probable that Buchanan would be taking the nomination in San Diego.
 
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Chapter III
“The politicians say 'we' can't afford a tax cut. Maybe we can't afford the politicians.“
-Steve Forbes

Republicans were going all out to prevent Buchanan from becoming the Republican nominee. Several high-delegate Midwestern primaries would be up a week after Buchanan’s Southern sweep. All three sides invested large amounts of money into each state, however the Virginian and the Tennessean were ahead. Both Alexander and Buchanan both had separate bases, with Alexander getting the conventional moderates, and Buchanan having the working-class whites. The primaries would turn out to be split, with Buchanan winning Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, and Alexander winning Illinois. This would increase Buchanan’s lead in the delegate count. While Alexander would claim to make up with this in a landslide win in Utah, it was to no avail.

All that mattered was the California primary, which makes or breaks any campaign (ask Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, or Jerry Brown). Despite Buchanan's momentum, the race was between Steve Forbes and Lamar Alexander. The increasingly shrinking state Republican Party was moving to the right. Forbes, despite his awkwardness, promised a return to the limited government of Reagan, which worked with Orange County conservatives. This would be enough to give Forbes a win, and limit Alexander’s role in the primary. Any future loss from him would end his campaign. Meanwhile, you could hear loud cheering from Washington and Dallas, who would have to face a potential Forbes or Buchanan nomination. Nevada and Washington (the primary this time) would also vote, both to be won by Buchanan.

Already, commentators were speculating about a brokered convention. The smart money was on Alexander becoming Forbes’ running mate, or vice-versa. Already, Buchanan was calling out the possibility as “anti-democratic.” April would have few primaries, with only Kansas and Pennsylvania going to the polls. Kansas, Bob Dole’s home state, would be a quick win for Buchanan. Pennsylvania was the main story. If Alexander did not win Pennsylvania, his campaign was completely finished. Both Arlen Specter and Tom Ridge stayed neutral, while Rick Santorum became one of the few senators to back Buchanan. While polls predicted it to be close, Buchanan would win by a six point margin. As expected, Alexander dropped out.

And then there were two. Both seen as unelectable goofs who would lose to Dole in 1995, Steve Forbes and Pat Buchanan had not been elected to any office. They both ran populist campaigns, with Forbes’ based on the flat tax, and Buchanan’s based on a “culture war.” It would seem that the distinction between economic and social policies would end Forbes campaign. Indiana and North Carolina, two socially conservative states would be up. That was it for Forbes. On May 8, 1996, Patrick Joseph Buchanan would be the presumptive Republican nominee for President of the United States of America.

The general election season between Clinton, Perot, and Buchanan was on. Polls showed coming into the conventions that Clinton would lead by over ten points, Ross Perot was close to his 1992 results, and the Democrats were taking back the South. Of course, it was expected that Thomas Dewey and Jimmy Carter would win landslides. Anything could happen…..
 
Any predictions on the running mates for the major candidates?
  • Al Gore stays on.
  • Buchanan picks someone for balance, not for similarity - he's not likely to die soon, he knows about the role of the VP, and he wants to dispel the image that he's far-right. George W. Bush would be good if he had more than a half-term of experience. Elizabeth Dole might be good, too - albeit she doesn't have any elected experience, something Buchanan will want to avoid, and she may seem like a blatant bone-throw to former Bob Dole supporters. Terry Branstad has the experience, certainly, and isn't too "Washington". Al D'Amato may be just "Washington" enough.
  • Perot/Trump seems played out - my guess is that he'll pick someone I haven't heard of. In lieu of that, however, how about Michael Bloomberg, Robert Lighthizer, John Silber, or (my personal favorite) John Anderson?
 
Ahhh, Perot/Silber. The "Old White Men Tied to Texas Yell At Trees" ticket we've always dreamed of :cool:...
 
Of course Perot/Silber would probably do pretty well: capture the hearts of a lot of fifty-to-seventysomething white male small-c conservatives who had not fully drunk the draught of the Fox Kool-Aid yet...
 
Chapter IV
“There are millions of `crazy` people in this country, and I bet tomorrow will be a crazy day at the polls.”
-Ross Perot

The Republicans would be the first to look for a running mate. There were three groups in finding a running mate. While Buchanan’s die-hard supporters wanted another right-wing conservative, most Republicans wanted someone moderate and experienced to balance the ticket. Buchanan had high standards for his running mate. He wouldn’t want a hawk like Dick Cheney or John McCain, nor someone who was socially liberal like William Weld or Christine Todd Whitman.

Buchanan wanted an experienced moderate from a swing-state, like John Engler, Jim Edgar, or Tommy Thompson. Unfortunately, many of them didn’t even endorse Buchanan, let alone want to be his running mate. Virginia Governor George Allen would have been a top choice, but he was from the same state as Buchanan. Former Senator Warren Rudman was a widely respected expert on economic policy that could get Perot voters, but on social issues, he was too liberal. Former NEH Chair Lynne Cheney had no elective office and was against banning same-sex marriage. Former Governor Carroll Campbell was a conservative from the South but had served as a lobbyist for the past year, which would seem hypocritical for Buchanan. House Budget Committee Chair John Kasich was also good with economic policy, but had worked too much with Bill Clinton and voted for NAFTA.

Buchanan eventually settled on two candidates. The first was the “tough on crime” state Attorney General Dan Lungren, a former five-term Congressman from the swing-state of California. The other was Alabama Governor Fob James, a conservative Dixiecrat who switched to the Republicans. James was a strong believer in states’ rights, even refusing to attend meetings of the National Governors’ Association. Both candidates had very similar political positions. Ultimately, Buchanan picked James, as the two-term Governor was more experienced, although it was leaked out by the Drudge Report before the official announcement. Reaction to his choice was not very positive from moderates, but conservatives praised the decision.

At the same time, Ross Perot was looking for someone to join his campaign. His 1992 running mate, James Stockdale, was widely seen as a poor choice. A wide array of characters were under consideration. This time, Perot wanted someone with electoral experience. Paul Tsongas was Perot’s initial favorite, but he couldn’t run after his cancer returned. Under consideration were Democrats like David Boren, Tim Penny, Sam Nunn, Bill Bradley, Robert Casey, and Marcy Kaptur, Republicans like Ron Paul, Steve Forbes, Donald Trump, and Linda Smith, and third party/independents like Richard Lamm, John B. Anderson, Angus King, and Lowell Weicker. However, a very high-profile figure would accept. His aura would smile, it never frowns. Former California Governor Jerry Brown.

Brown had run for President in 1976, 1980, and 1992 as a Democrat. His positions were similar in some ways to Perot, supporting term limits, the flat tax (Steve Forbes intensifies), and getting rid of the DoE. He had grown very critical of Clinton’s “third way” policies, and left the Democratic Party. Brown was announced in one of Perot’s “infomercials”, saying that he was running against the “deeply corrupted two-party system.”

The Republicans would start their convention with Buchanan’s supporters trying to influence the platform to move it to the right. If you have told someone that the Republican Party would be running a protectionist platform in the 1950s, they would be shocked, but 1996 was no normal election. The keynote speech was given by Mike Gabbard, a candidate for the U.S. House in Hawai’i and an anti-gay marriage activist. Gabbard railed against the “anti-American radicalism of Bill and Hill” in what some called reminiscent of Buchanan’s own 1992 culture warrior speech. Fob James talked about how he had moved Alabama from the era of segregation (which he called created by Democrats), and praised Buchanan’s record. Buchanan’s own speech was based on his campaign slogan, “Make America First Again.”

Perot’s Reform convention would be next, with speeches from business leaders, celebrities, and Reform candidates for office. Robert Casey, Bill Clinton’s challenger, would even show up to endorse Perot. However, the big question was who would be the “mystery guest” Perot would have at the convention. The move was clever, as media hyped up the convention significantly, giving it the attention it normally wouldn’t have. When the speaker was introduced, it was none other than Colin Powell. Powell, while a Republican, said he would be voting for Perot as the candidate of “fiscal sanity and social tolerance”, Jerry Brown called out Clinton’s various scandals and failures as President, and Ross Perot gave his typical stump speech. It was clear that the Reform Party was a serious player in the election.

The Democrats would re-nominate Clinton and Gore with little opposition (Casey and Penn’s delegates weren’t allowed to vote for their candidates after a rule was passed requiring a candidate to endorse whoever the nominee was). The delegates took a break from dancing to the Macarena to hear the keynote speech of Harvey Gantt, the former Mayor of Charlotte. Gantt was running against longtime right-wing Senator Jesse Helms and was forcing him into a close race. Gantt gave a unifying address that was widely well received. Already, he was seen as a future President. Vice President Gore and President Clinton gave fairly conventional speeches as well, a sharp contrast from the populist Buchanan and Perot.

Polls after the conventions showed that Ross Perot was the big winner, gaining 25% of the vote. Clinton retained a big lead over Buchanan, whose convention had been seen as highly divisive. However, Pandora’s Box would open soon.
 
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