TLIAW: Belisarian/Thracian dynasty

540 AD:

After 5 years, the Eastern Roman Empire had almost completely Italy from the barbarian Ostrogoths. But now, war loomed with Persia in the East and Emperor Justinian was eager to end hostilities. He sent the Ostrogoths an offer of peace, letting them keep Italy north of the river Po. To the supreme commander of the Western armies, Flavius Belisarius, this was an outrage. Good Roman blood had been shed to save the city of Milan, and Venetia* was still in Gothic hands. Suddenly, the Gothic nobles, unhappy with their usurper King, Witiges, presented Belisarius with an astonishing offer - they offered to make him Western Emperor, even though the regalia was now in Constantinople. 'Justinian wouldn't like it,' Belisarius thought, 'and when Justinian frowns, somebody dies.' Then again, where was Justinian at Dara, Ad Decimum, Tricaramum, Naples, Rome, Milan? When was the last time he had fought, slept and ate with the few soldiers he had deigned to give his best general? He could make a good emperor. He wasn't of noble birth, or even full Roman birth, but he was no fool. He had learned a few things from his time in the court at Constantinople. Furthermore, while the Goths were Arian heretics, he had gained a grudging respect for their bravery, and he had read about Theoderic the Great. If the nobles were offering to make him emperor, they must be desperate indeed, and desperation, if used properly, can be useful.

In May, 540 AD, Belisarius entered Ravenna and accepted the offers of the Gothic nobles. Did his soldiers have any doubts, any private, traitorous thoughts? Perhaps, but they didn't say a word. Not during the coronation. Not when Emperor Belisarius imprisoned Witiges for the murder of his predecessor, Theodahad. And not when they were ordered to march South. Not a word...
__________________________________________________
POD: IOTL, Belisarius only pretended to accept the offer and remained loyal to Justinian, capturing Ravenna for the Eastern empire.

*: The present-day regions of Veneto and Friuli–Venezia Giulia.
__________________________________________________
This will be a short TL. Previously, I think I've gotten bogged down in details - that's just the kind of person I am. Here, I'll try and get this done in 7 days, then I'll finally have a go at that Romanos IV Diogenes TL I've been thinking about. But first I'll get some feedback on my writing (and wait for the latest CK2 patch to come out:eek:).
 
I remembered some time ago writing a post about this, and finally found it:

There are a few problems with Belisarius accepting the Gothic offer working out well:

1. Not all of the Goths were on board with it. Ticinum, where Uraias was based, and Verona, held by Ildibad, both refused to surrender at a time when everyone thought Belisarius accepted. These two were no minor nobles, but men with huge power and influence among the Goths: Uraias managed to persuade the assembly to grant the crown to Ildibad , whilst he became his right hand man. If Belisarius chooses to stay and become emperor, he will have to defeat these two men and the coalition they will surely gather around them.

2. Belisarius' army. Whilst he had shortly been appointed supreme commander for Italy, previous events showed that parts of the army could easily side with one commander against the other, as was the case with Narses. The army itself was also very diverse: you had
i) a freshly arrived force from Dalmatia - never saw Belisarius before in their lives
ii) the heavy cavalry - these men were comparatively well off, and had all their property and families back east (and would not be very willing to give that up)
iii) the Hunnic mercenaries - these had absolutely no problem with B. becoming emperor AS LONG AS HE CONTINUED TO PAY THEM. B himself had no estates in Italy, all his money coming from Justinian's state coffers, and the Huns knew this. Moreover, even if they stuck around initially, they are likely to side with the Gothic nobles (the ones who had the money) once B has difficulties taxing his new subjects in order to pay them
iv) the fleet - I have serious doubts B could force them into joining him. These men probably had some property and families back home in the Aegean sea, and were also aware that siding with B would mean having to face the next fleet Justinian would send after them, whilst remaining loyal carried little drawbacks. If B has no fleet, he will have trouble taking and holding coastal settlements, as happened during the Lombard invasion, when the fleet was instrumental in allowing the Empire to retain control over half the peninsula
v) the local Romans - these men were fighting for their homes, and almost always sided, if given the chance, with the army they thought was least likely to burn down their cities. If B lacks a strong enough presence in the cities, these will switch over to the Empire in a heart beat

3. given points 1. and 2., B will have to fight to secure his rule, and this against both his former country and against the people he was trying to conquer. This will not be cheap, and will force him to levy very harsh taxes. This alienates both Goths and local Romans (making them liable to switch sides), and also leads to 4

4. Belisarius killed many a Goth at this point, and there were probably quite a decent number of Gothic nobles willing to assassinate him at the drop of a hat (assassinations were quite a thing - both Ildibad and Uraias succumbed to that fate)

This is why Belisarius accepting the Gothic offer of emperorship doesn't lead to peace, but to more death and suffering, which WILL weaken Italy. This will most likely entice the Franks to invade afterwards as OTL, further weakening it. At that point, the Lombards will look across the Alps and see easy pickings - the only chance the local elite will have to keep their possessions would be to either side with the massive Lombard host or seek the Empire's protection. If Belisarius is miraculously still around at that point (he would be approaching his 70's), it would be game over for him
 
Interesting. It's going to be an uphill battle for Belisarius, but I like him a lot more than Justinian so I wish him the best of luck.
 
Thanks for the compliments so far, but now, given Magnum's post, it's clear I'll have to give some serious thought to how future posts will play out, or even if I continue this TL at all.
 
Thanks for the compliments so far, but now, given Magnum's post, it's clear I'll have to give some serious thought to how future posts will play out, or even if I continue this TL at all.

Write a timeline where it all goes wrong for the Empire and Belisarius on the back of this decision! :D
 
Write a timeline where it all goes wrong for the Empire and Belisarius on the back of this decision! :D

Aw, but I like Belisarius.

Never mind, I'll just start the Manzikert TL tonight (Australian time) instead. Sorry to get your hopes up, people, but it seems I've written myself into a no-win situation here.
 
Aw, but I like Belisarius.

Never mind, I'll just start the Manzikert TL tonight (Australian time) instead. Sorry to get your hopes up, people, but it seems I've written myself into a no-win situation here.

Sorry about that.

The thing is, given the nature of the Roman Empire at this point, it was pretty damn hard for any general to take the army paid for and given to him by the state, go off and conquer a region on the Empire's border, and then just sit there and call the place home. AFAIK, something like this never happened, and for good reason: the soldiers lives and property was back home, not on this far-away land. That's why, IMHO, whenever a general rebelled against the central authority, he did so with the intent to replace it, and generally tried to do so ASAP, because paying and supplying an army aint cheap.
 
Top