The news of a FAR led assault on Israel in late 1972 appeared to most of the British public to be a mere offshoot of the conflict in South Arabia. The invasion, which was the brainchild of the de facto leader of the FAR, Gamel Abdel Nasser, was launched in early October, with Egyptian and Libyan forces striking from the south, Syrian, Iraqi and Saudi forces from the north; The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan meanwhile refused to associate with the attacks, with King Hussein still bitter at elements of the FAR backing an attempted PLO coup against him in Black September of 1970; he was also keen to maintain Jordanian holdings on the West Bank. The war, commonly referred to as the 'Simchat Torah War,' after the Jewish holiday being celebrated the time of the Arab assault. Nasser and his allies reasoned that the Israelis would be stretched in terms of resources and men, with their involvement in the South Arabian conflict (which many considered to be a front to catch the Israelis off guard, due to the fact that the al-Sallal had no chance of victory in the conflict.) The southern flank of Arab forces successfully crossed over the Suez and began to make lightening gains into the Israeli occupied territories in the Sinai Peninsular, meeting virtually no Israeli opposition. Syrian forces to the north began a concerted effort to assault Israeli positions in the occupied Golan Heights, they managed to break through Israeli defences in a short period of time, and proceeded to make worrying gains in Israeli territory, almost making it as far as the Jordanian controlled West Bank.
Suddenly three days later the Israeli Defence Force was mobilised and began to push the Arab forces back. To the south Egyptian, and to a lesser extent Libyan forces, held their ground and appeared to be slowly, but surely, pushing Israeli forces back. Syrian forces to the north were gradually pushed back towards the Golan Heights, but still managed to maintain their hold on the recently recaptured territory. The failure of the Sinai offensive led to Prime Minister Golda Meir and Defence Minister Moshe Dayan to conclude that nuclear weapons may be used as a last resort if the Arab forces looked to be on the cusp of taking Tel Aviv. Across the Atlantic in Washington an emergency meeting was conducted in the White House Situation Room, with President Murphy, SecState Helms, SecDef McNamara, National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger, and leading military officials. At the meeting it was resolved that the proposal to resupply Israeli forces would be adopted; this was however thrown into doubt when Helms announced that nations such as France and Italy had thrown a spanner into the works, and would not permit the US to have overflight. Only the United Kingdom would consent to the US having overflight, but with conditions attached. In early August 1972, the Prime Minister, James Callaghan had engaged in a small scale reshuffle, with Crosland reshuffled back to the Treasury, and Crossman reshuffled back to the Foreign Office. Crossman was instantly thrown into the developing crisis in the Middle East. Crossman, a committed Zionist was not prepared to let Israel wither away and die on his watch. Crossman reportedly from the Friday after the Arab attack, until the Tuesday, without any rest, working to achieve a favourable settlement for Helms, with other European nations; alas to no avail. At a COBRA (convened for the first time earlier that year to deal with the South Arabian issue) meeting conducted on the 10th of October, Crossman collapsed and was taken to hospital. At hospital he was diagnosed with liver cancer, effectively forcing him out of frontline politics. In his place Callaghan promoted the Defence Secretary, Denis Healey (who was replaced at Defence by John Stonehouse, who in turn was replaced at Overseas Development by Jimmy Hamilton, Callaghan's PPS); he was generally supportive of the efforts that Crossman pursued before his resignation fro the Foreign Office, but was seen to be more palatable to the United States.
A proposed Israeli ceasefire was rejected by Arab forces, who were buoyed by Soviet assurances for aid and rearmament if necessary. Iraqi and Syrian forces meanwhile began to siege the city of Safet in the north of the nation. The doomsday scenario, considered by Dayan and Meyer was forced into action. The Syrian and Iraqi forces moving along the road were assaulted by Davy Crockett nuclear devices (20 t), each of which could kill several hundred people, though the blast was considered by an internal Mossad report to be "
negligible." The move was condemned and applauded across the globe; the Syrians began to lobby their Soviet allies for the usage of several of the USSR's nuclear weapons on Israeli targets, Brezhnev refused to even entertain such a proposal. Meanwhile mass panic had begun to envelop Syrian forces, who began to withdraw away from the city of Safet, The capital cities of the two most important FAR states, Damascus and Cairo, began to be subjected to around the clock Israeli bombardments. Dayan, taking a leaf from Murphy's playbook, had begun to employ his own 'Hanoi Stone Age Tactics' (according to the Washington Star.)
By this stage the US Sixth Fleet was stationed off the Israeli coast, having been permitted to use British naval bases on the island of Cyprus several days prior. While it was apparently for a "
routine naval exercise in the Mediterranean" in the words of White House Press Secretary Pat Buchanan, most understood that it was a show of force by the US, warning the Arab states that if they made any other 'rash' moves, they could feel the brunt of the United States military. In response to this act of provocation, OPEC ordered the raising of the price of a barrel of oil to nearly $4.20, with the implicit threat of further actions if the US and the UK went further in their 'acts of aggression.'
On the 27th of October, less than a month after the initial Arab invasion, a working ceasefire was announced by Richard Helms and the Soviet Foreign Minister, Andrei Gromyko (with special thanks given to Crossman and Healey in part for the former's "
tireless work to achieve peace.") By the time of the ceasefire, Israeli military forces had begun to force Arab forces backwards; to the south back into the Sinai Peninsular; to the north-east Arab forces had been pushed up to the border region of the Golan Heights. The ceasefire saw the Israelis lose territory in the Sinai Peninsular; though for the most part there was very little change along the borders. Tens of thousands of individuals had perished in the war which effectively ended in a stalemate (though it could be considered an Israeli victory, by virtue of the Israeli state continuing to exist.) The war also saw FAR troops removed from YAR controlled territory in South Yemen, leading to it being easily overrun by South Arabian forces; al-Sallal was killed in a shootout in his 'Presidential' compound.
Despite a relatively quick conflict, all was not well in the realm of geopolitics. OPEC maintained it's high oil prices, leading to strikes, long fuel lines, and general industrial disorder in the United States. The problems led to President Murphy suggesting on live television for fuel rationing; an offhand remark about wearing an extra jumper that Christmas to keep warm, was seen as a sign of how the President was supposedly out of his depth on the issue. The general feeling of malaise was felt elsewhere in the west, especially in the United Kingdom where a series of strikes related to the energy crisis were called. Leader of the House of Commons Patrick Gordon Walker suggested that members of the public bring a jerrycan along with them to petrol stations in order to stock up on fuel. This was criticised as it led to mile long queues from the stations; and was further criticised by leading firemen for the potential of such a large quantity of petrol in one place to explode or catch fire. For several months after the announcement, house fires were referred to a 'Patrick Gordon Walkers' in the press, owing to the Leader of the Houses' newfound notoriety.
Chancellor Anthony Crosland announced that due to the "
disconcerting economics times that we are in" there would be cuts engaged in the budget and increases in taxes, an announcement he gave at a special statement in the House in December 1972; Crosland also famously stated that "
I'd like to say this to the British people in their homes today. This statement does not mean that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been reduced in purchasing power or value; it merely means that we are in difficult times, which I hope we'll see a way out of, soon enough." The statement was derided by his opposite, Anthony Barber as "
rather weak" and was lambasted in the press, especially in the populist 'Daily Sketch' publication. The Sketch was the first British newspaper to adopt the US terminology for the 'crisis' concerning stagnation and inflation; a portmanteau created US Treasury Secretary Milton Friedman: '
Stagflation,' an apt description of the mood and economic climate of the time perhaps.
It was in these times that James Callaghan went on national television to give a Christmas Eve address to the British people. He began by stating that "
this country, of all countries, should know that when the times get tough, we do not give up." He then began reminiscing about when he had been first elected Labour leader in 1963 and how he had fought and won the 1964 general election "
against a formidable opponent who I continue to respect." He then recounted various events from his Premiership, notably joking that 1966 World Cup was the second best FIFA World Cup that he had witnessed, second only to 1958.
"
We set out in 1964 to create a fairer Britain; a more cohesive Britain; a more unified Britain; and a better Britain. I believe that in all of these endeavours we succeeded... I believe I am correct when I say that these are indeed the most hopeful and best times in history since Christ was born in Bethlehem nearly two millennia ago... I therefore believe that it is the time to welcome a new generation of leaders and statesmen to the fore in our nation's public life. I there am announcing that come the new year I will be handing over power as Prime Minister, to a successor, whenever he or she has been selected and elected by the Labour Party. Until then I shall continue as I have done for the last eight wonderful years." He then thanked the British people for those eight 'wonderful' years and wished them a "
Merry and Holy Christmas." He then closed of by reciting Psalm 23 from the King James Bible:
"The Lord is my shepherd; I shall not want.
He maketh me to lie down in green pastures: he leadeth me beside the still waters.
He restoreth my soul: he leadeth me in the paths of righteousness for his name's sake.
Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me.
Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over.
Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life: and I will dwell in the house of the Lord for ever."
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[1]Some of the details of the Arab-Israeli war ITTL were inspired by some of the events in the wonderful TL: 'A Very Bad Year (1973)'.
