TLIAPOT: An Alternate Successor (a collaboration between Gentleman Biaggi and Baconheimer)

Well, the 1948 Progressive party seems to be starting off much stronger. Interesting to see if whoever they nominate will be more wary of the Soviet Union than Wallace was.
 
Chapter IV: 1948 Nominations
President Kaiser's renomination was hardly in doubt going into 1948. Sure, it seemed likely that a southerner or progressive or even both could launch a challenge in the primaries or at the convention, but with the defection of high-profile left-wing members of the Democrats to the new Progressive Party, any challenge from that end would likely be by some second-rate Congressman. Meanwhile, the Southern wing was brought into line with the endorsements of powerbrokers Richard Russell of Georgia and Harry Byrd of Virginia for the President. In the end, though, one man did throw his hat into the ring. Former Representative Samuel B. Pettengill, a staunch opponent of the New Deal during the Roosevelt administration and critic of the President (despite his generally pro-business policies, which were favored by Pettengill) threw his hat into the ring. Pettengill hoped to make a stand in the Midwest, particularly Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. A narrow loss in the West Virginia primary on April 13th dampened the hopes of the small faction backing Pettengill, yet he vowed keep fighting, to the convention if need be. It turned out West Virginia was Pettengill's best state, despite his eight point loss there. Kaiser rallied, and won every following state by double-digits.

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Pettengill's fight at the convention was just as disappointing. The Indiana Representative received only 3.2% or 39.5 votes from the delegates, most of them from Indiana and Texas. It was clear that the conservative wing would largely stand behind the President and back him for reelection. Kaiser selected Senate Majority Whip Scott Lucas of Illinois to serve as his running-mate. Lucas, a moderate, had support from in his state from both labor leaders in Chicago and rural interests downstate. His selection would likely swing the Land of Lincoln to the Democrats, but might not be especially helpful elsewhere. Southerners were pleased that Lucas had been uneasy with Taft-Hartley before its passing, yet were glad that he had ultimately voted in favor. His nomination would not be controversial enough to create a splinter Southern ticket, like what happened in Texas in 1944, but on a much larger scale. Northern Progressives, however, were not in favor of Senator Lucas. His vote in favor of Taft-Hartley had energized union activists against him, and was viewed as a betrayal by some union workers who had previously voted for him. Despite these reservations, Lucas was confirmed to the ticket on the first Vice Presidential ballot, but a strong showing for a scattering of more labor-friendly candidates forshadowed later issues for the Democratic ticket. Even despite all this, there were several attempts to get slates of unpledged electors on the ballot in many states, but this succeeded only in Louisiana and Texas. Pettengill, who had considered an independent run, declined to do so, but was nominated as an independent in South Carolina alongside Richard Russell Jr. of Georgia.

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Coming into 1948, many Republicans hoped they would be able to nominate Sumner Sewall for President. The Democrats looked divided after the controversial Taft-Hartley vote and the subsequent formation of the Progressive Party. Sewall waffled in the early part of the year, but ultimately opted not to run, citing the reconstruction of Germany as a crucial job that was necessary to be handled properly and avoid a second German Revolt. Even despite this, Sewall remained immensely popular and his name was thrown around for every position from Cabinet down to Senator from Maine. Up to a dozen candidates appeared on various state primary ballots, chief among them General Douglas MacArthur, the hero of the Philippines and military Governor of Japan, and Earl Warren, de facto head of the liberal wing since Thomas Dewey's embarrassment in the 1944 election. Then there was Robert Taft. Taft, son of the former 27th President and 10th Chief Justice, had become one of the most popular conservative figures following his guidance of the Labor-Management Relations Act (Taft-Hartley to the less politically astute) through the Senate and unwavering support of it as it went through the House.

The primaries were inconsequential, as was to be expected. Warren and former Minnesota Governor Stassen received the most delegates from those contests, but Taft had momentum going into the convention as enthusiastic supporters in state parties eagerly awaited casting their votes for him at the national convention in New York. The choice of New York was somewhat controversial, as many had hoped to capitalize on the presence of major cable networks in Philadelphia, yet the choice of New York was, in a way, a snub at Former Governor Dewey. Taft was nominated in four ballots. The liberals were clearly on the back foot, but MacArthur surged in support. Taft initially wanted to select Raymond Baldwin of Connecticut or Samuel Arnold of Missouri, but was persuaded to choose Douglas MacArthur. MacArthur was considered a good choice as he was personally popular, but also could be tied to the eternally popular Governor of Germany Sumner Sewall. The platform adopted there was much more conservative than party liberals like Earl Warren and the infamous Thomas Dewey had hoped. These liberals were particularly incensed that segments in favor of statehood for Hawaii and Puerto Rico, as well as an Amendment for Equal Rights were narrowly voted down.

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Henry Wallace was the clear favorite for the Progressive nomination and it was hard to imagine anyone other than the former Vice President getting it. Unsurprisingly, he did. Several minor challengers, businessmen and activists challenged the Governor of Iowa, but were wildly unsuccessful. Upwards of 90% of the vote went to Wallace, and no one else received upwards of 3%. Wallace initially wanted to choose Glen Taylor as running-mate, but was persuaded not to in favor of Claude Pepper in hopes of making the Progressive ticket more competitive in the south. The Progressive platform was incredibly, well, progressive and included planks advocating universal healthcare, the immediate repeal of the Taft-Hartley Act, an Equal Rights Amendment, and statehood for all the territories and commonwealths.

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Chapter V: 1948 Election
The 1948 Election was in short, a lost opportunity for the Republican Party. With the Democrats left wing splitting off to form the Progressives and Kaiser having mediocre support in the South, it seemed like the Republicans could easily win back the White House after 16 years. Instead, they lost, in part due to the presence of Robert Taft on the ticket. As the Cold War began and revolts occurred in Germany, Taft’s isolationism became unpopular. The man himself didn’t help the ticket, as Taft was well-known for having a lack of personality and his conservatism was heavily scrutinized by many in the Democratic and Progressive Parties. However, the ticket did have Douglas MacArthur, who was growing in popularity and was known for his personality. Still, the ticket took a major advantage and instead turned it into a disadvantage due to the unpopularity of the men on the ticket.


Despite this, Kaiser ran a hard campaign. Kaiser knew that his closeness to Democratic machines and business ties could become controversies, and due to that he pushed hard for his re-election campaign. Kaiser toured the nation, often with strong and passionate politicians like the rising Joseph Kennedy Jr. Meanwhile, the ticket was flopping with usually Democratic union voters, who felt betrayed by Lucas and Kaiser’s support for Taft-Hartley. With this, the Progressives racked up support from unions, who despised Taft and were not fans of Kaiser. Democrats feared that this union support would split the vote for Kaiser in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.


One issue for the Progressive Party was foreign policy. The party had split on whether or not the United States should create future alliances with the Soviet Union. However, preacher Norman Thomas managed to put an anti-USSR plank in the Progressive platform in order to gain more mainstream support. While Wallace personally disagreed with this, he decided to side with his party and even attacked Taft for some of his isolationism on the campaign trail.

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At the end of the campaign, Kaiser received a solid victory. He defeated Taft by almost 4% and with a decent electoral vote margin. However, the Progressives arguably split the vote on the west coast and in the northeast, causing some mild controversy. The Progressives themselves didn’t do that bad. They managed to win 16% of the vote and four states (along with an unpledged elector in Illinois still fuming at Lucas).
 
Not bad at all for the Progressives. I do figure they could take a wait-and-see approach with the USSR and when the USSR show their ugliness, they won't lose much and indeed could contrast their problems.

I'm just wondering what this could mean for China. I'm pretty sure the Maoists will get in unless the USA decides to support the remnants of the Chinese Democratic League
 
Well, I see no way Germany'll be a quagmire for years to come, no siree. Or how it couldn't be an albatross around the neck of anyone advocating it, given the German-American population...
 
I am wondering how this will affect various other decisions down the line. Would Wallace back up Uncle Ho for starters?
 
I am wondering how this will affect various other decisions down the line. Would Wallace back up Uncle Ho for starters?
I highly doubt it, there is several hawkish Progressives like Claude Pepper who would take full offense to such an idea, and they could easily split for Democrats
Plus Wallace himself moved away from his more isolationist views after '48 IOTL, which may very well happen ITTL
 
I highly doubt it, there is several hawkish Progressives like Claude Pepper who would take full offense to such an idea, and they could easily split for Democrats
Plus Wallace himself moved away from his more isolationist views after '48 IOTL, which may very well happen ITTL

Hmm... makes sense though they could find alternate options. Hence why I suggested the Chinese Democratic League for China
 
I highly doubt it, there is several hawkish Progressives like Claude Pepper who would take full offense to such an idea, and they could easily split for Democrats
Plus Wallace himself moved away from his more isolationist views after '48 IOTL, which may very well happen ITTL

Wallace was fairly conservative by the end of the fifties it seems.
 
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