TLIAM: Keys to the White House I - A Thousand Points of Light
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With the confidence of the American people, Cuomo sought to make his second term as productive as his first. Cuomo would push forward his vision of a Second Great Society with economic development programs for failing communities, as well as Richard’s Robin Hood Program pushing for greater funding equality between school districts. The assault weapons ban would be revisited and strengthened, banning their sale without vigorous background and mental health checks; this bill would immediately be taken to court by the NRA with a trajectory towards the Supreme Court. In an effort to rob the Republicans of an issue in the sixth midterms, Cuomo would launch a massive welfare and governmental reform push to cut costs, better use taxpayer money, and balance the budget. Speaker Gephardt and Majority Leader Gore would eagerly push the reform measures, but more than a few liberals would balk at the welfare cut. New York Governor Jack Kennedy, miffed at divide that developed between his cousin Kerry and Andrew Cuomo, publically calling the move “Reaganeque”. Attacks from the left aside, the polls seemed to be stabilizing in the Democrats favor and might have led to manageable losses if not for the Middle East being thrown into chaos.
It all began when Labor Leader Amir Peretz successfully initiated a vote of no confidence on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in late 2001. Peretz was promising to finally begin real peace talks with the Yassir Arafat and the PLO, and put an end to the simmering Intifada that had lasted over the last decade. Netanyahu dismissed this as defeatist and, perhaps in a show of strength boldly went to the Temple Mount surrounded by hundreds of Israeli riot police. Peretz and Arafat both called this antagonistic and would denounce the move. Israel Laborites and Palestinians began coordinated protests against the government. As the winter thawed, and more protesters came out violence would break out throughout Israel and the occupied territories. The resulting outrage would result in Labor being swept into power, and talks being between the new government and the PLO commencing. This hopeful sign would reverberate through the rest of the Arab world, providing the catalyst for what would be called the Arab Spring.
Protests would break out almost immediately in Oman, Jordan, Yemen, Egypt, Syria, Morocco and Tunisia to demand greater freedom for the people of those nations. The King of Jordan, King of Morocco and the Sultan of Oman would quickly capitulate, beginning the slow process of reform. The Egyptian Military, in response to thousands appearing outside the Presidential palace, stepped in and removed President Mubarak from power and while there would be the occasional violent altercation between military peacekeepers and protesters a new constitution is being crafted. Unfortunately, Syria and Tunisia quickly dissolved into major civil wars with each nation fracturing into various factions and shifting coalitions. Libyan Leader Gaddafi launched a preemptive assault on his known opposition, ruthlessly crushing any who dared to protest his governance. Iraqi President Hussein seeing the rest of his peers under siege took a different tact, creating an enemy for his people to rally against, launched a propaganda campaign against Iran before launching a war in the fall of 2002.
Cuomo mostly remained aloof of the Middle East, though verbalizing support for citizens to seize democracy for themselves and condemning Iraqi action, he made no announcement of initiating an American-led coalition as Bush had done a decade previously. When calls for a more firm response became louder, and Republicans seized the House for the first time in nearly fifty years and the Senate for the first time in 16 years, Cuomo would announce American support for refugees and would press for UN aid in the region. While horrifying images from Syria, Tunisia, and the Iraq-Iran War would continue to transmit across the Atlantic, Cuomo would wrestle to keep his domestic legacy intact while Nunn, Biden and eventually the UN pulled America towards the region. By 2004 the UN, and by extension America, were initiating no-fly zones and using peacekeepers to protect refugees. The nation was divided on whether this was the right course of action, with some calling for complete non-intervention while others wanted a more aggressive approach. There was a certain tension in the air as the election approached.
Vice President Richard would launch a campaign for the Presidency, promising a continuation of Cuomo’s policies over the next four years. She would be immediately be hampered by the loss of Texas in 2000 as well as questions of her fitness to hold office, based on her being potentially the oldest non-incumbent Presidential nominee, but would refuse to make a one term pledge. Challenging her and the administration directly, Senator Joseph Lieberman, the loudest hawk in the party, would announce his candidacy promising to restore America’s honor which was being besmirched by the “weak-kneed” response to the Middle East. When polls showed Richard’s numbers were soft, and that a large percentage of the party wasn’t happy with their choices, the charismatic New York Governor Jack Kennedy Jr would also enter the race demanding the party hand the mantle to a new generation. The primary and debates would be vicious, with all three candidates castigating the beliefs of the others. Lieberman’s tough talk would earn him a squeaker of a win over Richards in Iowa and South Carolina, but it would be Kennedy who carried the day in New Hampshire. No clear frontrunner would be determined until Kennedy’s decisive win of his home state on Super Tuesday and the slight delegate lead secured on that day. Despite only winning Texas, Richards would stay in the race to the bitter end hoping that as everyone’s second choice she could get the nod at a brokered convention. Eventually momentum would hand Kennedy the nomination by the slightest of majorities before the convention. His selection of Al Gore's successor as Democratic Leader, Barbara Boxer, for Vice President was considered an appreciated peace offering to the establishment wing of the party, but the Southern delegates were noticeably quiet during his acceptance speech.
The frontrunner for the Republican nomination was also a legacy candidate, with Florida Governor Jeb Bush running as the establishment candidate who could be an interesting combination of Washington outsider appeal while also getting foreign policy shine from his father. But there wasn’t a consensus amongst the moderates of the party, with Senator John McCain running once again as a Hawkish maverick and Governor Mitt Romney as a more peaceable outsider, though Romney would flame out after a couple of gaffes in the fall of 2003. The real shakeup in the election game when George Allen, who had returned to the office of Virginia Governor after a four year absence, positioned himself as the conservative voice of the party. Allen had begun a number of speaking tours in 2003 to repackage conservative values in a manner that would be palatable after the victory of Mario Cuomo in 96. Running a rigid campaign, and bringing his charisma to bear, Allen would be demanding change from the status quo of the last sixteen years and tapping into the long neglected reservoir of true-believing Reaganites. Bush won Iowa, as expected, but Allen was right behind him. New Hampshire would prove to be a knock down fight for the moderates as they jockeyed for position with Allen coming out on top by a nose. Bush would beg McCain to drop out, in exchange for Vice Presidency, but would be stymied. Allen would carry South Carolina, and the rest of the primaries fell into place. Before the convention, Allen would announce that Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison would be his running mate.
The general election would pit two well known representatives of their party, taking to the campaign trail and airwaves to put forward their vision of the future. Despite their high minded rhetoric coming out of the conventions, and on the stump, the advertising campaign would be cutting with accusations of racism and adultery abound. Allen and Kennedy would reference each other in respectful tones, with the odd jab thrown in couched in humor or wit, while behind the scenes steps were taken to undermine each others organization. There were real divisions in ideology, over the war and over the role of government, but the candidates would charm the country, with many saying they liked both men while the party loyalists fell head over heels for their man. The debates would be the most historically watched. Turnout would be high, the American people invigorated, and the results would be close. On election night, America would go to bed with Arizona, Iowa, Maryland and Ohio too close to call. By the next day all four were called though Allen’s win in Ohio, which guaranteed him the Presidency, was almost rescinded as counting continued. After eight years, the Republicans had retaken the White House and for the first time since the Eisenhower administration, they also had both chambers of Congress.
2004 Presidential Election
Allen/Hutchinson 277 EV - 48.90%
Kennedy/Boxer 261 EV - 48.10%
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As I'm working on the next update, the penultimate update, I've begun thinking idly of thinking of the next part in the series. I've identified about 20 or so elections where the right POD could topple some dominoes to flip the election result based on the keys, about half of which are After 1900, but I don't know which to tackle. I was thinking of maybe putting up a poll with the specific elections, maybe with a brief blurb on what my intended POD is. Would you guys think that's a sound idea? I suppose I could post those dates and PODs here first.
I'd be interested to see what you guys think about what date I should tackle next.
I'd be interested to see what you guys think about what date I should tackle next.
Despite the closeness of the 2004 election, the Republican Party had been handed an electoral mandate the likes of which hadn’t been seen in generations and President Allen was going to act accordingly. Donning his trademark cowboy boots and rolling up his sleeves, Allen would put forward a comprehensive welfare reform and deregulation program, much to the satisfaction of business and banking interests who had felt out of the loop for the last decade. Glass-Steagal would be one of the first pieces of legislation to go, allowing for a rapid commodities boom into 2008. More stringent job requirements, as well as equalizing verification requirements between single and two parent families, were combined with benefit reductions and tax cuts. Much of this success can be laid at Vice President Hutchison’s feet, whose knowledge of Congress and dangling the use of earmarks as incentives would guide these measures around Democratic filibuster attempts. It would be Hutchison to talk Allen away from making a push for Social Security Reform that lacked enough support for passage. Despite these policies, and the success of the financial sector, the economy entered a period of cooling with some of the more alarmist prognosticators predicting a collapse by the end of the decade.
Social conservatives would find themselves disappointed by the Allen administration quickly. Thought the President vowed to keep the ban on gays in the military, instituted by Secretary of Defense Nunn, he made no move to ban gay marriage on the federal level. The President would merely keep federal funding from going towards abortions and despite calls for parental notification, the matter would be left to the states. Conservatives would get a nod with the appointment of two justices to the court, John Robert and Samuel Alito, but they were mostly kept at arms length while focused on other issues. Allen would be able to enact parole reform, denying it to felons. More aggressive standards based learning would be implemented nationwide as well a support for single-sex public schools. The administration would prove to have a complicated relationship with the scientific community, as Hutchison pushed for the largest increase in NASA funding in decades while at the same time the administration was stripping environmental protections that had been put in place to combat the “non-existent” threat of global warming.
What would become the defining moment of the Allen administration, before the economic implosion on the eve of the Presidential election, was the military deployment to the Middle East. With the advice, and assurances, of Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, the Allen Administration, in coordination of the United Nations, would moving strike forces into Syria and Tunisia to topple the governments trying to crush the Democratic movements building in those countries. While successful at first, as the leaders of those nations were forced into hiding, the actions would bog down as the attention of the United States was drawn elsewhere. The Iranian elections of 2005 had been held, and the candidate dedicated to ending the Iraq-Iran War, which had quickly become a quagmire, was soundly defeated under the cloud of intimidation and electoral fraud. Students would storm the streets, adding Iran to the nations caught up in the Arab Spring. Allen and Cheney, worried that this unrest could lead to Iraq seizing the initiative pulled American troops from Tunisia and Syria to launch an invasion against the “war criminal” Saddam Hussein. Though UK Prime Minister Blair and Russian President Primakov were quick to support the intervention while French President Jospin and German Chancellor Muntefering expressed deep reservations about picking sides between Iraq and Iran. Despite the split in NATO support, the invasion continued unimpeded toppling Saddam and freeing up Iranian troops to turn back home, only to be met by radical groups armed by NATO forces. While the balance of power was restored, after a fashion, and Saddam’s reign of terror brought to an end, Iran would descend into a full on civil war while Iraq joined Syria and Tunisia as nations loosely held together by NATO forces with never ending sectarian violence.
The Allen administration would prove to be incredibly divisive, with signs of unrest making themselves seen early when Vice President Richards’ daughter Cecille won an upset victory over Governor Perry’s appointee David Sibley in a special election to replace Hutchison in the Senate. His welfare cuts and environmental protection cuts would be met with much derision from the political class, but it would be the Middle East action that sparked the largest outcry. The early days of the action, when it was about spreading freedom abroad, there was wide bipartisan support with President Cuomo’s son, Andrew, having just been elected to the Senate, being one of the loudest Democrats supporting the intervention. When the successes turned to quagmire, fortunately for the President after it could hurt the Republicans in the midterm too much, many would begin to agitate against both parties for blundering into such a conflict. This would only be made worse by the consistently declining economic prospects.
Two Independent candidates would step onto the political stage to provide an alternative to the “politics as usual” in Washington. Senator Bernie Sander, Socialist from Vermont, had bucked the Democratic Party consistently throughout the Allen years becoming a vocal opponent of the status quo. Though popular amongst some millennials, his campaign would be studiously ignored by most, other than the occasional Cold War reference being made by the President. The real shakeup would occur when the popular and famous philanthropist Michael Bloomberg launched his own independent bid. Made famous for his work with “America’s Mayor” David Dinkins in the days after “Two Two Six”, using his wealth to help the families and first responders. He had shocked the nation when he renounced his membership of the Republican Party in 2006, with speculation running rampant that he might launch a third party bid in 2008. He would visit the Daily Show in 2007 and when asked by its host, Stephen Colbert, if he’d be a candidate he vowed he would if the people demanded it. A “grass-roots” web campaign would immediately be launched demanding that Bloomberg run for President. His campaign was made official, when he spoke before a crowd of thousands in New York City with former Governor Richard Lamm of Colorado. Early polls had Bloomberg leading Allen and a generic Democrat all but ensuring his ticket’s inclusion in the debates.
Despite the level of discontent, President Allen in securing the Republican nomination. Sure, Libertarian Ron Paul launched a campaign to unseat the President geared at caucus delegates which caused a bit of a scare amongst the establishment, but that would quickly be put down. No, it would be the Democratic Party where the excitement could be found. Former Governor Jack Kennedy would be the first to announce, angling for the establishment vote by arguing for a second chance after the close loss four years previously. Kennedy’s position as the establishment favorite was quickly undone when Senator Andrew Cuomo made his announcement, vowing to be a capable and independent leader while clearly benefiting from nostalgia for his father. Senator Russ Feingold would position himself as the Democratic outsider, holding up his vote against the war and his progressivism he hoped to capture the kind of voter that was in danger of bolting for Bloomberg or Sanders. But it would be the dark horse Governor of Illinois, Barack Obama, who would shake up the primaries and capture the imagination of the youth in the party. While Cuomo and Kennedy were jockeying position for the front runner, and Feingold decried their moderation, Obama was building a network in Iowa in support for his candidacy. Obama would win in an upset, with Feingold getting second and Cuomo getting third. Without that vital win, Feingold’s support would spiral and he would be forced to support Governor Obama. Cuomo, seeing Obama’s threat began to copy his playbook in New Hampshire, carrying the state and effectively ending Kennedy’s chances at the nomination. Obama would win South Carolina, but Cuomo’s team would spread out to ensure an edge in delegates throughout the nation and prevent Obama from ever building a lead. The nomination fight would continue on until April, but Cuomo’s consistent lead would carry on to the convention. In a show of party unity, Cuomo would invite Obama onto the bottom of the ticket.
Cuomo and Allen would attempt to run a campaign in the traditional way, but they found themselves hassled by Bloomberg and Sanders supporters throughout the nation. In a way, the race would be defined by the presence of popular independents. Bloomberg’s blunt honesty and eccentric charm would drive Allen to appear more in his cowboy gear and Cuomo to follow his running mate’s lead and eschew suits for jeans. The first debate would be widely watched and it was clear that the Independent made the two party candidates uncomfortable. Obama would stabilize support the traditional system in his vigorous debate performance, but the polls still showed a Bloomberg lead. Behind the scenes, Allen and Cuomo would both issue scorched earth efforts bringing out every dirty dealing done by his business interests and calling into question his capability as leader. When the next two debates proved less conclusive, with Bloomberg seemingly rattled by the negativity of the campaign, the polls predicted a three way split. And the financial and housing market exploded the week before the election. Banks began to look at risk of folding, and Washington began to panic looking for a solution. As the nation looked in the face of an economic crisis unlike any seen since the 70’s the nation turned ever so slightly to a familiar name. Andrew Cuomo came in first though he did so with less than 40% of the vote, and he carried with him a Democratic House and Senate. But, Bloomberg had won a quarter of the vote and actually won a few states, showing that there was a dissatisfaction with the national government. Many in the Republican leadership lost their positions in the election, and with that party’s head decapitated many moderates would gravitate to a Bloomberg inspired independence. Cuomo had his mandate, but he would face opposition from a radicalized opposition, and a growing independent caucus threatening to become a fully fledge third party.
2008 Presidential Election
Cuomo/Obama 326 EV - 37.06%
Allen/Hutchinson 129 EV - 31.20%
Bloomberg/Lamm 83 EV - 25.74%
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The new state of the world was being called the Second Malaise, in direct parallels to the period of the 70’s. The outgoing Allen administration would put out a bailout package to save the banking and financial sector before they collapsed completely. The housing market would be hit with a big blow, as those in associated careers would be suddenly out of work. The programs of the previous Cuomo administration would help these newly unemployed, but there would be little comfort for those millions who lost the jobs they were supposed to hold their whole lives. Progressives who expected the son of Mario Cuomo to implement his own version of the Great Society would be quickly disappointed to find a man who was fiscally conservative by inclination. The stimulus package put forward by Cuomo would only be half of what liberal economists felt were necessary, coming in at just over a trillion dollars. His reform of the tax code would be received more positively, as it shifted more responsibility on the upper classes, but it only raised taxes enough to cover the cost of the stimulus. Glass-Steagal would be reinstated, but there would be agitation on the left that further action was not taken to curtail those who had drive the nation to the financial edge. The economy would stop falling by the end of 2009, and begin a slow rise over the next three years.
While progressives would be disappointed by the “missed” opportunity to clean up the financial sector, Cuomo would make the advancement of same-sex civil rights a major component of his administration. One of the black marks on his father’s administration was the banning of gays in the military, a measure pushed by Secretary of Defense Nunn. The former Secretary of Defense would later denounce his own policy, and would stand beside President Cuomo when the ban was lifted early in 2009. National recognition of same-sex marriage would be a more difficult fight, with a number of the newly minted Reform Party members bristling at the intrusion into state matters and several blue dog Democrats looking nervously at their poll numbers. A compromise, of sorts, was implemented requiring states to acknowledge marriage licences from other states regardless of the genders on the license. While a De Jure acknowledgement of state determination of marriage, the weakness of the state was proven when thousands headed to more liberal states to get married. And while a number of communities refused to acknowledge these licenses, federal law be damned, the tide was turning on the issue. While the last of the progressive agitation died down after the appointment of Diane Wood and Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court, the political triangulation on economic issues paid dividends for the Cuomo administration when Democrats barely held both chambers of Congress despite a suddenly angry conservative minority denouncing his Presidency.
Abroad, Cuomo would work with State and Defense Department, headed by Al Gore and Hillary Clinton respectively, to begin the delicate process of extracting American forces from the Middle East. Iran had descended into anarchy and madness as the government, in the hands of hardcore militants, indiscriminately crushed rebels. Iraq had descended into an occupation of attrition while the three state solution was implemented. It would be relatively easy to get UN observers to monitor the negotiations and guide the splitting of the nation. Iran would not be so easy. As American troops were no longer needed in Iraq, they began an attempt to stabilize the situation but neither side was enthusiastic at western interference. The UN instituted a bombing campaign and no fly zone, but no new nations would join the British-Russian-American forces in the region; all hopes for French intervention were crushed when the National Front came second in the 2012 election, propelling Socialist Segolene Royal into the Presidency. As Cuomo’s term was coming to an end, Iran was proving to be embarrassingly difficult to resolve with many talking openly of cutting and running or begging the three new nations to get involved.
A progressive coup against the President never got off the ground, despite a sense of disappointment with the President when no suitable candidate could be found. Cecile Richards and Russ Feingold were uninterested in launching a campaign and many who were uncertain closed ranks in defense of the President as many on the far right sought to drag him through the mud. Cuomo and Obama would easily secure the nomination, and pivot towards the election. The Reform Party, the organization of independents that was crafted by Michael Bloomberg, would also prove a simple nomination. After the sudden wave against the Republicans, a number of moderates had defected to the organization, making it the largest third party in Congress in a number of generations. Hoping to learn from the mistakes of independent movements past, Bloomberg sought to unify these politicians under a banner of “tripartisanship” and prepare for a run in the next Presidential election. After holding their own in the midterms, the organization turned to nominating Bloomberg for President and his chosen successor, Senator Lisa Murkowski, for Vice President.
The Republican primaries would be chaos. After 2008, the establishment had been badly hurt with the Bushes having the only national organization left in place. For those looking to get the party back in order within an election or two, Jeb Bush’s announcement at a second run was greeted with cheers. Governor Mitt Romney, another familiar Republican name, would also throw his hat into the ring as an electable conservative. Governor Mike Huckabee would run a campaign as a conservative populist, in an attempt to tap into Reagan and Nixon’s well of support. The press would focus on these three men as representatives of the party’s factions, who would fight for the soul of the part, but the oft ignored and never tiring libertarian crusader Ron Paul who upset the proceedings. Ron Paul launched a hands on campaign in Iowa, seemingly meeting every caucus goer in the state and pushing young Republicans to participate. While the others loudly fought over the ideals of the party, and who would best be able to unseat the detested Cuomo, Ron Paul quietly secured a plurality of the delegates in the caucus. The political establishment was shocked, and while the candidates scrambled to adjust their campaign strategies accordingly, New Hampshire decided to live up to its independent reputation and voted for Ron Paul too. The conservative and moderate wings were both panicking now, and had to crush this insurgency. Huckabee dropped out and endorsed Romney, giving him the win in South Carolina which was then followed while a semi-coordinated focus by Bush and Romney on crushing Paul in their “strong” states. Bush and Romney would win most of those states, splitting delegates between the two, which would hurt Paul’s momentum, though wins in Ohio and New York would keep them from finishing him off. As Paul faded into third, the fight between Romney and Bush resumed with the former Florida Governor taking a lead in the delegates that he would hold throughout the season. Unfortunately for Bush, it wouldn’t be nearly enough to prevent a brokered convention.
The Republican convention would be a media sensation, as no one was quite sure what would happen. Romney, Bush, and Paul weren’t budging until at least a ballot or two, and talks between the two frontrunners clearly proved fruitless. Former President Bush, the otherwise obvious choice to keep the convention in order, was kept away from the reigns due to a presumed bias towards his son. In his stead, Former President Allen would be tasked with keeping order and moving the proceedings along. With the eyes on the “Big Three”, the convention was quietly manned by Allen loyalists; on the fifth ballot, a “Draft Allen” campaign bid was launched on the floor in an effort to unite the party. While this move would ultimately fail, as would moves from former Vice President Quayle and former Congressman Newt Gingrich, it would drag the convention through dozens of ballots. President Bush would finally step up to the plate, compelling his son to drop out for a 2016 run, and the party to line up behind Romney. Jeb Bush would reluctantly agree to this plan, but the hurt feelings wouldn’t go away. After selecting Senator John Kasich for Vice President, a bruised Republican Party limped into the election.
While the economy was improving, it didn’t quite feel that way for many Americans. Wages weren’t great, and the confidence of the American people was shaken by the last few years. The President had his core support, and many did tout his accomplishments, but millions were looking for an alternative. Unfortunately for Romney, the ill will felt after the dramatics in the Republican Party left little confidence for him or his party. For the first time in a hundred years, polls were predicting a third party to be in the top two vote getters. While Republican strategists and talking heads tried to spin these numbers, they were proven accurate. Romney was never able to capitalize on the dissatisfaction felt, but neither was Bloomberg. Cuomo won the popular vote, by a very small plurality, but it would take a number of days to determine if he could win a majority in the electoral college and avoid a Congressional contingent election. Illinois would be the last state called, going to Cuomo by half a percent; exit polls suggested that Illinoisans prefered the Vice President to the President and it was Obama’s popularity that prevented the state from voting Bloomberg. Cuomo had secured another term, with a shaky hold on Congress, but it would remain to be seen what he would do with it.
2012 Presidential Election
Cuomo/Obama 279 EV - 35.80%
Blumberg/Murkowski 172 EV - 32.88%
Romney/Kasich 87 EV - 28.13%
And that's the end. Some interesting dice rolls to carry the last election, but I thought it was an interesting one to close out on. I do plan to write more TLs, with one that may be a bit outside the scope of The Keys to the White House game plan, and I hope to get some feedback on how to shake things up and what to write about in the future. My gut right now is an alt-1968 or alt-1980.