TLIAFD - Setting Down Root (TR in 1912...but as a Republican)

TLIAFD – Setting Down Root

This is an attempt to get some improvement in race relations (by eliminating Wilson, for starters, but also stopping “Birth of a Nation” being published) and more importantly more TR Progressivism in the early 20th century. But, the “more TR” comes in a way I haven’t seen much; his Progressivism as a Republican. And he’s not the only one who pulls a Cleveland.

The POD is one that merely prevents Taft taking the War Department job and thus he isn’t involved there and in Cuba when the appointment comes in 1906. He still dithers, but in the end is successfully nominated. And, of course, other changes come in the US and abroad.

I didn’t have time to develop this when I started a few months ago, and with other interests it just never got picked up, so this becomes a Christmas present to AH.com…at least for fans fo this era.

Part 1: “The Same Great Commitment to Task…”

It was a chance comment; maybe not specifically meant about him. But, Elihu Root was already in his 60s and didn’t need to change jobs if he didn’t have to. He liked working in Teddy Roosevelt’s cabinet, and would have been ready to be a cabinet member again later in his life anyway. He was just considering leaving and going back to private practice.

As he was considering resigning, though, in 1904, he overheard President Roosevelt talking about William Howard Taft, who was helping the Filipinos move toward democracy. “I wish every member of my cabinet had the same great commitment to the task as that man,’ TR said. “I wish he’d accept a Supreme Court appointment – I wish there were two of him so I could have him both places, in fact….”

Root overheard and pondered it. It was true; there was something to be said for Taft’s determination, even though it annoyed some in the Party who wished he would take the chances given to him and let someone else handle things. Root could stay on a little longer. At least until Taft came back; even if he waited till the end of TR’s second term, he would still be able to accomplish quite a bit – he was rather healthy, after all.(1)

And even then, if Roosevelt wanted him to succeed him… well, maybe. He could promise to serve only one term – and TR would be back in 1912, anyway, knowing him.

So, he stayed, until State Secretary John Hay died in early July, 1905. Roosevelt asked Root, who quickly agreed; this was the type of thing he’d have come back for, anyway.

However, when Taft was invited to come back and run the War Department, he was still too busy in the Philippines. He felt the need to keep track of things in the Russo-Japanese War while also working a little more toward getting the Filipinos ready for self-governance; and, the former wouldn’t end for a few months. The alternatives to Taft weren’t that great, either, as far as replacements in the Philippines.(2)

Still, Taft had always wanted to be on the Supreme Court. When the chance came in May of 1906, he had no other major responsibilities; the russo-Japanese War was over and the chaos in the Philippines had died down. He asked for time to ensure his successor was a good one, and by July, a couple months later, he had telegrammed his acceptance. Taft would be appointed to the Supreme Court in summer of 1906.

TR was anxious to have a successor; he was a busy man. And yet, he also thought about returning to the White House someday. He might have thought about running again, but he had two good men whom he could support.

One was Elihu Root, and the other was Philander Knox. Root was more progressive than Knox, but also older – indeed, he’d been born the same year s McKinley, who had been elected first in 1896. He supposed that he could make it for one term, but he was concerned about his health; and, since he hadn’t had time away from Washington, he was a bit more tired than he might have been. Still, TR felt he was a bit better than Knox.

However, Conservatives saw Knox as a better choice. He was a Senator and former Attorney General. Many in Party leadership – from his time in the Senate – had formed relationships with him. Root had only been Secretary of War and State, so not used to campaigning. Plus, some charged that Root would be more likely to involve the U.S. in war.

Conservatives hadn’t liked the choice of Roosevelt as McKinley’s Vice President. Now that there was a chance to get back in power, they wanted to. They’d have been happy with Taft; he wasn’t the type of Progressive Roosevelt was. But if it had to be Knox versus a “Roosevelt clone,” as one called root, they’d rather have Knox, a man who would be more likely to support big business, as they said, “the way McKinley did.”

Elihu Root was more like Taft, and would have been glad to see Taft run. He was much better at State than some others might be, so some said he should stay there. “Bringing nations together is a great thing,” one Senator said, “but we need someone who is good at many other aspects of government as well.” One Root supporter, on the other hand, pointed out that in the old days Secretary of State was the position from which Presidents naturally came.

Taking advantage of this apparent schism was William Jennings Bryan, who believed the “trust busting” of the Roosevelt Administration hadn’t gone far enough. A gifted orator, Bryan secretly hoped Knox would run, because he felt Knox had more of a chance of being beaten – although one could argue that Root, given his lack of experience, might be a better opponent for Bryan, who after a couple terms in the House of Representatives hadn’t served in public office.

Without Taft in the picture, too, Bryan realized that Ohio might be ripe for the taking. He encouraged delegates to select former Governor James E. Campbell as his VP nominee; Campbell would also be the party’s choice for Senator that year, back when they were still appointed by the legislature. Bryan talked up Campbell’s Civil War record, in which he’d been “emaciated” because “he was so dedicated to his duty,” and the fact he fought corruption in Cincinnati, which had made him unpopular with the Party in that part of the state.

John Kern, another possibility, was already a Senator and, given the Republicans’ lead there, the Democrats were a little wary of losing the seat if Kern should be elected; he was already the leader of the Democrats in the Senate.(3)

In the end, Root’s hemming and hawing about his age – Senator would be one thing, but President would be trickier – and support for Knox by Senators meant that Knox, who had nearly enough delegates on the first ballot, won on the second.

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(1) One of a few PODs possible – Chief Justice Fuller dying 4 years earlier would be another, and he was around 70 then. But, the President of Cuba being too ill to rig the election to win again in ’06, which touched off the problems there which Taft was working on when TR approached him, made more sense and seems to have fewest butterflies, except for slightly better U.S.-Cuba relations with no intervention. The Cuban president was a number of years older than Fuller, anyway, and it’s more likely someone would fall ill down there.
A less possible consideration was Elihu Root sticking around and the Secretary of State, hay, living another year before Root is moved to State. Root left War in early ’04 anyway, so keeping him at War itself is enough without having Hay also live, and doesn’t seem to be a likely cause. Taft can easily still leave the Philippines.

(2) Scandals hit the next two before a judge who had helped Taft work out a system of laws took over in 1906 OTL. Here, either that person or possibly even William Henry Moody, the man who TR appointed after Taft turned down the Court, would be named.

(3) This bit of strategy would only come with Taft out, and it could help Bryan win Ohio, if barely, since Taft didn’t win it by a huge amount. (Kern wasn’t able to deliver Indiana for Bryan.) Missouri, Maryland, and Montana were all rather close wins for Taft, but Bryan needs them, Ohio, and help elsewhere if he’s to have any chance of winning.
 
Hey, weren’t these TLIADs all British political ones?

Yeah, but Teddy Roosevelt’s in this, he transcends AH.com

Good point. So, why do a few parts of this look more polished than some TLIADs?

It was started months ago but I’ll likely never have time to keep it going. Also, if anything goes that way in the Flight 932 ISOT I don’t want to be seen as copying.

Isn’t that cheating, though?

It may arguably be better as a TLIAW, but the polished parts were written and researched within a few days’ time, and it’s going up in a day, so it evens out.

By that logic if you stand with one foot in a fire and the other foot encased in dry ice, on average you’re comfortable.

Those extremes would be more TLIAH versus TLIAM.

Okay, wait, I get that that’s hour and month from the context, but shouldn’t you distinguish between month and minute – both could be “m”?

Wait; a challenge response you could make a really, really short timeline in an hour; that’s what I did with a response on American football failing to be anything more than the “Brazil of sports.” But … how do you do a timeline in a minute?

Hmmm, well, Billy Joel’s “We Didn’t Start the Fire” doesn’t count, does it?

No, and that’s around 4 minutes, anyway.

True. I’ll let you know if I think of something else. Of course, you’re me – or maybe I’m you – so maybe you need to let me know… I don’t know. So, this won’t go very far?

No, a few decades, that’s it. Just making things a little better, not going into great detail, but someone else can certainly take the ideas and do different things with them. Anyone can feel free to add on to this timeline.
 
Part 2: “Party Like it’s 1899”

Roosevelt preferred Root, but would grudgingly support Knox; TR’s tepidness cost Knox some votes.

As the general election campaign commenced, Knox’s presence in the Senate caused Bryan to attack him for being what would later be termed a “Washington insider,” though for now he was merely calling Knox an “elite.” “Shall the people rule?” Bryan would ask as he campaigned. “Or, shall the elites who only care about big business? Remember that Senator Knox was not even elected by the people, but by the Legislature!” And then, he would launch into a demand for an amendment allowing for popular election of Senators. No, the President wasn’t specifically involved in amendments, but Bryan used that to his advantage, anyway.

Knox, for his part, insisted that people “stand pat” and keep the Republicans in power. However, he sensed some uneasiness in the electorate.

For one thing, Republicans had been in power for 12 years. Had they continued, there would certainly have been a desire on peoples’ parts to put Democrats into Congress by 1910. Now? People were tired of Bryan, but they were also a bit tired of Republican rule. The question was who would they be more tired of?

The biggest bombshell came from a Bryan supporter in the weeks before the election. It has been said that James Blaine missed his opportunity by mentioning Grover Cleveland’s illegitimate daughter way too early in a close election. Here, Democrats pointed out something far more devastating to the 1908 electorate, a national news story that – while old – was still within living memory as being a major national disaster.

Years earlier, Knox had been a member of a country club which had an earthen dam which collapsed. The collapse caused a flood in Johnstown, PA which had made national headlines. The members agreed not to disclose the problem, in order to avoid liability. However, Bryan’s supporters brought this up as an example of Knox’s “big business dislike of the common man.” He used the slogan “Shall the people rule?” and continued that with asking, “Shall the people survive free from fear? Or shall they continue to be overrun by the giant corporations which have so much more power than they do?” Bryan also used the Panic of 1907, which – although short – had hurt the Administration some.

Even with all of this, the election was close. He needed a number of close states to go his way, and even then, he couldn’t be certain. He’d courted enough votes that – while the election might be very close in the popular vote as well as the electoral vote – he at least had a decent chance of winning the Presidency.

Missouri was one of those. He’d campaigned heavily in it, with his Populist roots helping immensely, as was also the case with Montana. Maryland was also close – enough so that a couple electors went Republican. One of the closest states was Illinois, which went to Knox, barely. New York would be the key.

After much anticipation, the popular vote in New York hinged on several thousand ballots. It’s quite possible that this closeness of the election came from the scandal involving of Knox’s country club. Knox had responded with a promise to pay damages, but that hadn’t come in time to satisfy the many immigrants who heard of this and wondered how safe they were. They’d fled Europe, after all, where the bigwigs stepped on the little guy all the time, in order to come to America, where they and their children would have the chance to succeed despite their poverty. Knox sounded, to them, too much like the uncaring nobles back home, and this caused a wave of immigrant support for Bryan.

In the end, New York went to Bryan, giving him a 246-237 victory in Electoral votes, with the popular vote being closer than any election since 1880, where a mere 7,000 votes had separated Garfield and Hancock. As one newspaper wrote, “With Bryan finally winning, in the manner he did, we may be back to the era of very close elections which we had between 1876 and 1892.”

William Jennings Bryan had won in his third effort. President Roosevelt – whom Bryan had praised but also said he “hadn’t gone far enough” - congratulated him, yet also vowed to one day return to politics. And some believed, a 1912 run was inevitable.

“It will be an interesting match,” one pundit would write in 1911, “between two men: Bryan, who is now President but is not world famous, as he sees Roosevelt being; and Roosevelt, who is world famous but is not President. Both men have something the other wants, and yet Bryan can probably never be as famous as Roosevelt, while it’s questionable whether Roosevelt can become President again.”

Bryan didn’t need world fame in the same way TR did, of course. His speeches focused mostly on helping people at home and keeping out of any international conflicts. “It was good enough for George Washington, and that’s good enough for me,” he said famously.

Bryan’s best moves, in retrospect, may have been on the Supreme Court. At least, that is what some say, based on his delving into topics which had been settled for a while, especially that of free silver.

He had the chance to appoint four justices.(1) In 1910, he also had a chance to appoint the next Chief Justice. Taft wasn’t chosen, but since the man selected was over a decade older, Taft didn’t mind; he figured he’d have a chance of become Chief Justice afterward under a Republican. And, Edward White, a Cleveland appointee who was famous for his antitrust book – part of why he was elevated to the Chief Justice’s spot by Bryan - served until his death in 1921, 9 years before Taft died.

Bryan’s four appointments would be: a Southerner, Horace Lurton(2); Willis Van Devanter, a Western candidate known partly for his work in corporate law as well as areas such as Indian relations (and from Bryan’s area as far as Appellate District); Massachusetts’ William Hornblower, rejected for the Court when President Cleveland offered his name to the Senate by pro-silver Democrats(3); and, finally, Louis Brandeis, a brilliant legal mind known for his essays on the dangers of the power of large banks and trusts(4). Hornblower’s Senate opposition long gone, Bryan’s selection was mostly to make sure he wasn’t there to oppose the Silverites anymore, though it was supposedly a dead issue. (Bryan didn’t act like it, though.)

Of course, Bryan’s detractors argued that Bryan merely did so to allow himself time to focus solely on his pet project, a silver based currency, which critics said was, “Old like Bryan – he’s taken the Democratic party back to the 1890s!” His emphasis on free silver gained little headway with Congress.

He did, of course, push for reforms, especially as far as contributions to campaigns being made public when done by corporations. He said that, while he admired President Roosevelt, the man “hadn’t gone far enough in ensuring that that corporations can’t run the nation; the people shall rule the nation.” He was even willing to take on his own party in that area, he noted. It was something he felt proud of, which was one reason why he’d picked the Vice President he did, one of the first candidates to openly push for someone when he saw the chance to try to steal Ohio without Taft. The V.P. had angered some Democrats in Ohio because of his attacks on corruption in the Cincinnati area.

Republicans lost seats in 1908, going down to a mere 203 seats, though they still held a majority; and held much more of one in the Senate. Member on both sides, however, were interested in doing something about immigration, and in fact what resulted led Bryan to appoint Brandeis, who was Jewish, over a few equally possible candidates.

A report had come out critical of the number of immigrants entering, especially those from Southern and Eastern Europe.(5) 8.8 million people had entered the United States over the previous decade, and numerous Senators and Representatives wanted to halve that number, if not reduce it further.

This is where Bryan’s Populist base got fired up, especially because of effects which had caused an anti-immigration policy to be much more supported in the South.

Late in 1904, Elihu Root had made a speech while Secretary of War, which he would not have had he resigned from the position. He advocated that the United States needed to “continue to put aside differences and ignore the evils of the previous century.” It was something President Roosevelt latched onto and spoke of often in his campaign. This led to a Southern historian not getting his novel published about the “Lost Cause” of the South. He’d gone to several before giving up on publishing “The Clansman,” though it did get good reviews by a few Southerners who had seen it, and even Woodrow Wilson while he was at Princeton.(6)

This meant that there was a void, however, which needed filled in the last half of the first decade of the 20th century. While memories of the immediate post-Civil War period weren’t raised, it was easy for Southerners to get behind the idea of stemming immigration, almost entirely in some cases. While Populists supported this to protect American jobs from cheap labor, Southerners supported it to prevent “outsiders” from “controlling the country’s destiny.” They often noted that it was a “foreigner” who had shot President McKinley.

Bryan wanted to make sure he kept the coalition which had put him into office, as small a difference as there had been between him and Knox. So, he reluctantly accepted the bill to sharply curtail immigration, hoping it would help him with his pet project.

Once Democrats controlled the House in 1911,(7) immigration limits were hotly debated. Unlike some Democrats, such as New Jersey’s new governor, Woodrow Wilson, Bryan was willing to listen to Congress, provided that provisions allowed for immediate families of those already in the U.S. to come over.

With this guarantee, Bryan signed the legislation, which would go into effect Jan.. 1, 1912. Considering the problems in Europe, some felt it was important to do it then before, as one Senator put it, “millions of refugees flood the country.” Bryan’s attacks on gold continued to be ignored; Congress did push through an amendment in 1912 and sent it to the states for ratification granting women the right to vote. His push for Prohibition fell on deaf ears, though it was gaining momentum.

meanwhile, there were problems in Europe. Big problems. But, we’ll get to Europe in a moment, after considering what had come before that and the 1912 election.

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(1) In OTL, Taft appointed five, but one was picked to replace the one appointed by TR in 1906; here, Taft fills that spot so there is no vacancy.

(2) According to Wikipedia he’s a Democrat, but also, Taft could still recommend him. His age may be seen as beneficial by Bryan, too, since he could wind up naming his successor as well if he only serves 5-6 years and Bryan is re-elected.

(3) Wasn’t sure who else to take – though I considered Learned Hand, he’d be a bit young even in 1912, though not as young as Joseph Story, so if you like I can go with Hand, he just isn’t quite as experienced. Besides, Hornblower is a great name. :)

(4) Though his book was only published in 1914, he’s still past 50 and it is a collection of essays he’d have been doing for some time. If he’s the last justice of the four it makes sense. Plus, it gels with the immigration issue coming to the forefront, as Bryan tries to please all sides in it.

(5) As it did OTL

(6) This book, which led to “Birth of a Nation” and the rise of the Klan OTl a 2nd time, was rejected a few tiems as it was. A few more rejections and it becomes a footnote; while there will still be those in the South who hold to those views, the antipathy will not grow and fester. The clear nadir of American race relations will be around 1901, whereas OTL some aruge around 1923 for the lowest point.

(7) By a smaller margin than in OTL since the 1910 losses wouldn’t be as big, but they would still control it, though the Senate is more up in the air.
 
Part 3: Growing Together or Coming Apart

Depending on your location, Bryan’s entering the White House drew people together or forced them apart.

One area in which Bryan’s Presidency created some strange bedfellows was in race relations in America. Given Woodrow Wilson’s statements, the best thing some could say about Bryan was that, “At least he’s no Wilson.” On the other hand, despite Bryan’s comments about blacks being “better off in the United States than in Africa,” he opposed the Social Darwinism that he warned bred hatred. While he was quite tepid when it came to actually integrating anything, he at least argued for nonviolence.

‘The rabble don’t need an excuse to be rabble,” Bryan said of those who condoned racial hatred. “They are suffering from the evils of sin, and the degradation that comes from believing that the fittest survive when it comes to mankind,” Bryan said once. “We are all only surviving because of the hand of God allowing it.”

Bryan was not as much a strict Creationist, he was a day-age one; he could see long geological ages as long as one accounted for the miraculous creation of Adam and Eve. However, he was not was a very astute politician when it came to such things.

“Bryan’s Presidency,” one commentator wrote later, “was that of a deeply religious man but one who lacked the mercy and grace to go along with it…as if he were from the age of the Puritans. When President Lincoln called for a National Day of Thanksgiving, when he spoke of God, he did it in a way that more greatly emphasized mercy and forgiveness. A Lincoln could call a nation to repent, and even wonder if the Civil War was allowed to happen as punishment for slavery, and make it appear that God’s justice was still mingled with His mercy and grace, as shown through the cross. Bryan, on the other hand, came across as condemning and not forgiving, even when he had valid points, such as when he attacked the problem of liquor…. Of course, he got caught up in his pet project from the 1890s, which distracted him from things like Prohibition.”

Despite this, some positive things began to emerge. Womens’ Suffrage got started as a national amendment issue during his term, as did the amendment for the direct election of Senators. While he had no part in actually getting these amendments passed, he did support them wholeheartedly. He also did trust busting and made other reforms. Historians are rather divided on how to view him at times.

While Bryan tore the United States away from foreign interests – including appointing people he felt would most help the Filipinos toward democratic self-rule much more quickly, lest American ownership “cause us to become embroiled in something we shan’t remove ourselves from readily” - Theodore Roosevelt was bringing the U.S. and Philippines together. Dissatisfied with Bryan’s Presidency, he postponed his part in a planned African expedition, whereas he might not have with a Republican who he trusted in the White House. Instead, Roosevelt used the opportunity to tour the world the way President Grant had toured following his Presidency; another sign, one scribe noted, that he could return and run for President again in 1912.

He first visited the Philippines; he’d decided to take the train and then leave via San Francisco. He encouraged the new leader of the Philippines and then went to Japan, including Korea. In Japan, he received thanks from the Japanese for negotiating an end to their war with Russia. He also tried to negotiate some measure of self-rule for the Koreans. He encouraged limited autonomy for Korea; though some balked at that in the incredibly complex world of Japanese politics, they at least listened to the former president due to his world renown. Roosevelt’s presence, it is said, may have helped cooler heads prevail and prevent assassination of the top Japanese official in Korea, which would have been disastrous.

After he visited the Holy Land, Roosevelt chose to join the group which had been put together that was going through Africa. He spent months there before going to Europe, where he altered his itinerary upon the death of Britain’s King Edward to attend the funeral. President Bryan famously quipped, “That man thinks he’s Secretary of State.”

Having spent much of 1910 in Europe, Roosevelt found himself extremely popular among the many leaders and crowned heads of Europe. He hoped that he’d been able to help the rulers to see peace as important, “The same way King Edward did, especially peace between Britain and France.” He emphasized that he didn’t want to start fights; only that, “When there is a war, and the interests of Democracy are in peril, it is up to America to act.”

“If that’s not a campaign speech, I don’t know what is,” Senator Knox proclaimed.

He was right to be concerned that Roosevelt was increasing his prestige for that reason. While Knox had done well, lonely losing by a small amount, that wasn’t good enough for a lot of Republicans. The Progressive wing of the Party said that Bryan “had no chance of winning that election, except that the Conservatives lost it.” They hounded Knox about his many missed chances, and as 1911 went on, with the Democrats having made more gains in the 1910 midterms, suddenly Knox found himself losing what support he had as the potential leader of the Republican Party. Many people wanted Roosevelt back.

Some still supported Knox, of course. “Bryan may be beatable without having to go back to a man who opposed big business so much,” one said. Another noted that, “Washington wouldn’t run for a third term, and even General Grant couldn’t get enough support. Theodore Roosevelt certainly shouldn’t.”

Roosevelt enjoyed the clamor. The argument about his running for another term would die down months before the convention – and even before he officially announced that he would seek the 1912 nomination. Meanwhile, Bryan seemed popular enough that many Republicans felt that he’d get a second term just because nobody else was good enough to defeat him. Besides, things had gone a little crazy in Europe, and Bryan might be credited for keeping the U.S. out of it, even though there hadn’t been any reason yet to enter

In the end, then, by the time he announced that he would run, Theodore Roosevelt was seen by the majority of Republicans as the best choice. He won the GOP nomination, with some votes for Knox. It would be the second time in U.S. history that a former President had run against a sitting President. When he learned of the choice, President Bryan welcomed the “battle of heavyweights” which would result; he was sure he could beat TR. TR, on the other hand, was equally sure he could defeat Bryan.

It would be a very interesting election. Especially when the two men with huge egos challenged each other to debate.
 
Part 4: Knockout

It had happened as the result of an innocent comment by an aide to one of the campaigns; which one is rather lost to history, though there are a few clues that TR’s camp not only started it, but that TR himself might have suggested floating the idea.

The open air forum debate would take place at Comiskey Park in Chicago. It was a large venue which would allow as many people as possible to come. Thomas Edison crafted recording equipment and even a sound system that – primitive as it was – would hopefully allow people not only on the field but in the stands to hear them; it didn’t work out really well, but it was still very entertaining. And, Charlie Comiskey, of course, charged admission, not wanting to miss the chance to make some money.

There was a bit of a scuffle before, as a man tried to enter the stadium with a gun, which was noticed by an observant bystander. When questioned, the man revealed that he’d been going to try to assassinate Formore President Roosevelt. He was judged insane and committed to an asylum.(1) No other incidents were reported.

When the debate began, both sides had a set amount of time, just as in the old Lincoln-Douglas debates. However, the amount was far shorter, and the candidates could ask each other questions, too.

The comparison to a heavyweight bout seemed quite appropriate for the first part, as both sides used forceful oratory to make their points, The punches and coutnerpunches of their words made it seem like it would be a draw – one long remembered in the annals of debate – for most of the afternoon. Then, the incident most remembered from the debate came into focus, after Bryan had made a point using the Bible.

“Why, I know more of the Bible than you,” Roosevelt proclaimed.

“I find that hard to believe, coming from a warmonger like yourself,” Bryan replied.

Roosevelt licked his chops. He’d prepared for this moment. “Oh, but I do. You claim that Original Sin is sex, when it fact it is pride; in Hebrews it says the marriage bed is undefiled. And Adam and Eve were married before the Fall.”

Bryan wasn’t too pleased with this, but he could buy it, so he hid his emotion and countered by saying, “It figures that you would know that, considering your prideful demeanor.” He then went on a short tirade about how he’d busted more trusts than Roosevelt despite the former president’s claim to be a Trust Buster.

Roosevelt decided to bring the subject back to the Bible; if his opponent knew this, he would just congratulate him – showing his humility – and move on. If not, however, he could perhaps score a knockout. “Let me test your Biblical knowledge – I have heard atheists say – and I do not believe this for a moment of course, for I am a God-fearing man – that the Bible has a crucial error in it. What do you say to that?”

“The Bible has no errors in it,” Bryan protested.

“I agree, as I said, I believe as you do, that God wrote the Bible. But, tell me then, where did Cain get his wife?” Roosevelt asked.

“What?”

Roosevelt knew the answer, and would quote the verse if needed. For now, he quoted another, and asked, “If in the beginning, there was Adam and Eve, and Cain and Abel, where did his wife come from?”

“It doesn’t matter, I believe in the Bible.”

“You don’t know, do you?”

“It… it doesn’t say. But, I believe in the Bible.” When Bryan saw Roosevelt grin like the Cheshire cat, he knew he was done for – perhaps it did say?

It did. Roosevelt declared, “In Genesis 5:4, Adam knew his wife, and she bore him a son, named Seth; and they had sons and daughters! Josephus in a footnote claims it was 33 sons and 23 daughters, as with greater life spans came a longer time where women could bear, though that isn’t important. Mr. President, it appears that I not only know more about how to run this country than you, I know more Bible than you. I could explain to someone that Cain had married a sister or niece. It was not forbidden yet due to the special circumstances. Sometimes there is a brief description and then a further explanation later. Yet you claim to be a Bible expert and you couldn’t explain the most elementary of points about Genesis.”(2) He didn’t say where he’d gone to discover this; the important part was, he’d shown himself to be more of an expert where Bryan thought he was supreme.

Bryan was crestfallen. An advisor tried to console him afterward that at least Roosevelt had defended the Bible well. So, it wasn’t like he’d totally failed God. Billy Sunday, a former baseball player, wrote to Bryan that, “It was like a play where one fielder will back up another when that one misjudges the ball. Think of it that way – you may have dropped it, but Mr. Roosevelt caught it before it hit the ground, so there was no harm.”

However, all that consolation went unheeded for quite some time. Bryan had really wanted to remain President, and he sensed that a close election had slipped away from him. Even if that one gaffe hadn’t caused it to slip away, he felt like it had, it had stung his ego so much for Roosevelt to actually sound more knowledgeable than he felt he was..

Bryan recovered in the last days of his campaign, but the momentum had clearly swung. Roosevelt likely would have won anyway, though in a race as close as the one Bryan had won the year before. However, once Roosevelt gained the momentum, he didn’t let go. On Election Day, he garnered well over 300 electoral votes, 325-206. Roosevelt had won New York, which was only somewhat hotly contested since it was his home state, and pulled a bit of an upset by winning West Virginia, partly because of the debate, as he did well in the upper part of what would be known as the Bible Belt because of it. Ohio was much more of a battleground state than either of those two – which had been expected to be – but Roosevelt still won it fairly easily and also won a majority of the popular vote.

When Bryan knew Roosevelt would be running, he’d dropped his old running mate, who would be in his 70s soon, and chosen Governor Woodrow Wilson, hoping to cash in on the Northeastern connection, since he’d already won Ohio last time and Roosevelt hadn’t chosen an Ohioan, though he had selected Charles Fairbanks from Indiana again. Bryan had hoped Wilson would balance the ticket well and ensure that Southerners were on board, but he’d already begun to clash with him a little on the ongoing conflict in Europe, where Wilson wanted to support the British through trade, at least, whereas Bryan wanted to remain completely aloof.

William Jennings Bryan hated admitting defeat. He’d thought he had everything set to win another term. He could only say one thing after conceding the election.

“If Mr. Roosevelt can run for non-consecutive terms, I can too.” He didn’t say for sure that he’d run in 1916. He had been worn out by this campaign. However, he left it open. And, while the European mess hadn’t quite been long enough that he could brag about having kept America out of it, he wondered if he could better compare records on that in 1916.

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(1) It’s not known how or when OTL’s culprit began planning, but it’s quite plausible he would take this course of action because he would then think he could get away in the crowd.

(2) Bryan did die days later, so it could be argued that Bryan had memory problems due to a minor stroke when he missed that question at the Scopes Trial, or that the famous scene from “Inherit the Wind” didn’t actually happen like that. However, if not there, Roosevelt would be determined to beat Bryan at his own game, the Bible, somewhere in the Scriptures. So, this is as good a place as any for him to trip Bryan up. Roosevelt would not be deterred.
 
Part 5: 1911 - Goodness Gracious, Great Fall of Fire

The name Dragutin Dimitrijevic forever became part of European history in the fall of 1911. And, part of that was because the Austrian Emperor felt he had something to prove, given his advanced age.

When Theodore Roosevelt toured Europe in 1910, Emperor Franz Josef was already 80. Some of the nationalities in his Austro-Hungarian Empire were starting to get restless, because the incredibly spry TR had made quite an impression, even with the common people. They thought they could try to revolt since their emperor was supposedly old and feeble, before a younger man, the heir Franz Ferdinand, took over.

Emperor Franz Josef had let things simmer for a while, but by summer of 1911, He decided that his tour of the Empire needed to have more fanfare and show him being much more spry than he was. He might have accepted more security, but despite the apparent dangers and possible threats of a plot, he was a little less cautious.(1)

The assassination was planned for earlier, but could not be carried out. However, given the emperor’s much more visible actions, it was decided they would try again.(2)

When Emperor Franz Josef was killed, it touched off a storm of protests. Even before the large state funeral, attended by many European monarchs, new Emperor Franz Ferdinand, demanded that Serbia put down the Black Hand.

At first, things were calm; in fact, the giant state funeral brought heads of state to Vienna and helped ease tensions caused by the Agadir Crisis in Morocco. However, at the same time, Count Ahrenthal’s skillful work in the Bosnian crisis, allowing Austria to annex it after having administered it since 1878, had humiliated Serbia and Russia. This made Serbia less willing to listen to Austrian demands, even after the death of the Austrian emperor. And, Russia was allied with Serbia, and – already smarting from the loss in the Russo-Japanese War – their emperor hoped to get a victory. It would be hard to mobilize his troops, but Nicholas II would if he had to. However, he hesitated for a moment to see how events transpired.

Yet another complication was Germany. Their supply of nitrates was very low; they could use another year or three to be able to generate enough firepower through the Haber-Bosch process without relying on nitrate imports. However, if they hurried, they might have enough to really defeat the Western Allies if France – or even Britain – should come to the aid of Russia. And, Russia knew they’d better hurry, just so they wouldn’t wait too long and find Germany toos trong; if in fact Germany supported Austria-Hungary.

Meanwhile, one head of state had been markedly unsettled, one might say, during the funeral of Franz Josef, that being the ruler of Italy.

Italy had been gearing up for war for a while. They wanted to take Libya from the weak Ottoman Empire, long dubbed the “Sick Man of Europe.” They were concerned that, if they waited, it might be too late,; the Ottomans had a lot of troops trying to put down a Yemeni revolt. Italy had begun their assault as Franz Josef died of his wounds.(3) Austrians, Serbs and others rattled their sabers and began to pull them out of their sheaths while diplomats tried to work something out. However, Italy had already declared war on the Ottomans after the Ottoman Empire failed to heed their demands.

This touched off a chain of events that – given how other nations were already starting to mobilize – slowly embroiled most other major European countries.

What happened was this. Tensions were high between Italy and Austria because of a variety of factors, including complaints by ethnic Italians in Austria and competing interests in the Balkans. Italy agreed to help Serbia by attacking Albania in part because, once Austria-Hungary attacked, Italy was afraid that if they annexed Serbia, it would put them very close to Albania, and the Italians didn’t want that. They moved troops to the Italian-Austrian border and planned to use the others to cross the Adriatic.(4)

This seemed like a risky move after the Battle of Tobruk, which the Ottomans did quite well in. However, there was one positive.

Russia, feeling it had too much to lose if it didn’t intervene, declared war on Austria to support Serbia. They couldn’t mobilize quickly, but now that winter had set in – during what is late Fall in most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere - the Austrians couldn’t attack them easily, either, giving them a bit more time to mobilize.

Austria declared war on Serbia and Italy after Russia supported Serbia. By the first of December it looked clear that Italy could beat the Ottomans, though perhaps not handily, so Russia joined in a declaration of war on the Ottomans as well.

Then, Bulgaria - which had been promised the right to grab some territory in the Balkans - joined in the war against the Ottomans, as did Greece once they saw things going well with the Italian (then Russian) alliance.(5) Then, Austria declared war on Russia. There was also the interest Serbia had in forming a league with others to carve up the European remnants of the Ottomans, causing the Italians to try to help.(6)

This led France to declare war on Austria-Hungary and on the Ottomans. Germany then declared war on everyone who had declared war on Austria to support Austria.

. It had taken a few months, but the whole continent of Europe was at war after that crazy fall with an assassination and another war starting so quickly. And, while the Germans had initially declared war to support the Austrians, after using many of their troops to simply let the French charge headlong into them, they decided that they couldn’t afford a lengthy war, given the lack of nitrates. So, they decided to try the Schlieffen Plan as Von Moltke had refined it.

However, with von Schlieffen still alive, this caused an argument between he and von Moltke as far as how to implement it, an argument which wasn’t fatal for the time being – French forces had just thrown themselves at the Germans and been easily repelled – but which could in the future if it wasn’t resolved. The Germans violated Belgian neutrality, and brought the British into the war on France’s side.

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(1) What those precautions were OTL are uncertain, but the plot of OTL failed, so there was a plot. Therefore, it would be somewhat easy to a slightly less careful Emperor Franz Josef, who would also be touring at a slightly butterflied time compared to OTL, to be assassinated.

(2) The time is a bit different, perhaps, from OTL, but not much, since the Black hand had been formed over a month earlier, and the place where an attempt would be made is different.

(3) Not many world leaders have survived for weeks or even days after being shot, U.S. President Garfield (3 months) and McKinley (8 days) are unusual exceptions. I phrase it this way in case it is too implausible that they continue to plan for Franz Josef, since it’s uncertain how long they tried OTL before giving up and going after Franz Ferdinand instead. If need be, it can be said he lingered for a few weeks till the Italians got on the ground in Libya.

(4) They attacked the Dodecanese in OTL.

(5) While they didn’t OTL, they did almost right after the Italo-Ottoman War ended, and with Russia rather than Serbia alongside them, it makes it even easier for them to gobble up land.

(6) Which they would months later once Italy had won and the Albanians are in rebellion. Here, Italy has decided to support Albanian rebellion, so it forms a bit earlier with Italian guarantees of help, with the implied idea that Italy will have a sphere of influence there.
 
Part 6 – Governments Get While the Getting’s Good

Had the Germans simply relied on defense, they might have been able to wear France and Russia down. They were too intent on grabbing more, though. Despite its creator still being alive, he was no longer in position to complain about von Moltke’s changes to the Schleiffen plan, which had eliminated an attack on the Netherlands.

It made sense, in a way. Without the Haber-Bosch plan able to go full blast yet, Germany was in need of a quick war. However, in violating Belgium’s neutrality, they had brought the British in, which let the British help stop the Germans short of Paris.(1)

As the sides settled into trench warfare close to the German border, the Ottomans were getting trounced. Russia had problems on their Western frontier, but in the Caucasus they were doing quite well. The Ottomans, by mid-1912, had lost Libya, the European part of their empire outside of a strip around the Bosporus, and Armenian territory. They decided to cut their losses in mid-1912 before the government fell(2) – and, in fact, a group of radical members of the Young Turks ended up taking power and promising some major reforms.(3)

Britain wanted to help the Russians, but with the Ottomans doing so poorly, they seemed likely to lose soon enough that the Straits could be opened into the Black Sea soon. Italy was already taking Albania(4), while Greece had taken the Dodecanese with British help. Britain and France moved ships to Constantinople to protect it from falling – though they supposed Bulgaria would be adequate, since it wasn’t Russia, they preferred that an Ottoman state have it. They promised that they would protect the city if the Ottomans dropped out, and they brokered a peace after the large Bulgarian army got shredded once near that piece around the Bosphorus..

Meanwhile, the Italians had moved into the Hungarian Plain but needed help. A British and French landing let them get past Timisoara and then some by late 1912. The Austrians therefore needed to pull back from Serbia, where they had made impressive gains. Germany had then sent troops to back up the Austrians, but Transylvania was at risk of being cut off if they lost too much more

While battle lines formed over the winter there, the Russian lines continued to be disrupted by the Central Powers, as well as by a spy who had escaped Russia and come to Austria when the war began. Rather than join other Communists in Switzerland, he was too anxious – and way too good at playing parties off each other – to sit around. So, when the Austrians captured him as a Russian immigrant, he offered to spy for them.

That spy’s name was Joseph Stalin.

Austria had seen some great misfortune at the losses in Galicia, and so had utilized the trickery of Stalin and the spy network he’d created to try and stop the Russians. Russia had been having supply problems as it was till they finally got production going in 1913, but Stalin tried to encourage workers to revolt as well as trying to pass on information. It is estimated that his information and tactics helped to forestall a number of Russian attacks, and turned the tide in at least one battle, though in the end he could not delay the inevitable.

One of his most famous “works” was the disinformation he’d planted in January of 1912, even before leaving Russia, and continued for months, about the “lack of patriotism” among non-Russian officers, a move which got Brusilov transferred away from Poland after a series of losses, and which eventually caused the complete loss of Poland later in 1912.(5) Stalin’s incredible sneakiness, paranoia, lack of trust, and other traits were making him a master spy.

When Brusilov appealed to the Czar himself to try and get a command in the southern part of the Eastern Front, and demonstrated his ideas for defeating the Austrians, the Czar agreed. Truth be told, he had won some early victories before some major reversals. Brusilov suspected that there was a spy ring in the Russian ranks which had led to these rumors of disloyalty, and he wanted to snuff it out. Czar Nicholas agreed, and gave Brusilov somewhat free reign; the general had performed well before, and seemed to be quite trustworthy.

Brusilov’s tactics, using much smaller units rather than the massive ones used elsewhere in Europe, proved very beneficial. Despite heavy losses, throughout the summer he was able to push the Austrians hard enough that by fall of 1913, there was talk that the Austrians might sue for peace. They’d been forced to pull troops back from several places, and Serbia had been liberated completely again by September of 1913.

Romania had also entered the war to take Transylvania in August. Once they did, this was the last straw for the Austrians, and they capitulated in October. Only Germany remained now, and they were ready to try for one more breakthrough, as their nitrate process had mostly gotten up to snuff during the war. However, with the British able to send supplies through to the Russians throughout 1913, keeping them in the war, and the naval blockade, it wasn’t enough. A lst ditch effort to sneak Lenin through From Switzerland through Germany to Russia in October failed when troops entered the train at a stop and shot Lenin.

On January 19, 1914, the Germans finally surrendered. The Great War was over.

However, even before a final peace treaty was signed, the combination of many Muslim refugees from former Ottoman Europe and hatred toward Armenians for “losing the war” (they felt they had to blame someone) led to skirmishes on the Russian border with Ottoman Armenia, which was to be a possible Russian territory in the peace anyway. This led to problems that had involved Americans in a humanitarian way. And, Theodore Roosevelt would also get the United States military involved in other areas, too. William Jennings Bryan would have plenty of fodder to claim that the United States was better off with him as President since he would guarantee peace. Especially because of unintended effects that brought even more controversy.

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(1) The French Army was still undergoing reforms after the Dreyfuss Affair, but only 2.5 years before OTL’s WW1 they would be mostly complete. When balanced with the Germans not being able to get to full strength quite as fast without the nitrates, the Germans likely get about as far as they did OTL before being pushed back.

(2) They surrendered to Italy in October of 1912 OTL; with more opponents once Russia and especially Bulgaria has joined in, it’s earlier, but not much, as they are desperate to hold onto something at first, and then realize it’s a lost cause.

(3) The 3 Pashas of OTL.

(4) They attacked the Dodecanese OTL

(5) This scandal is from OTL, but Stalin would not only help to perpetuate it while on the run from authorities, but would later take full credit for it to boost his image.
 
Part 7 – “He Thinks He’s The World’s Police Chief”

During their famous debate, William Jennings Bryan had charged that Roosevelt would embroil the United States in war. TR challenged that American interests should be protected, but he also countered that they were not yet threatened. Roosevelt had understood Bryan’s desire to speed the Filipinos toward independence – which he opposed – but Roosevelt also believed that when American interests were threatened, “The people of this country deserve action. We cannot let the forces of tyranny reign.”

By spring of 1912, Germany had decided they had no choice but to try the Schlieffen Plan. Their supply of munitions was getting low, and the fact that it was now a full-scale European war didn’t make it any easier on them. Russian revolutionary Joseph Stalin had approached the Austrians about serving as a spy, while two other revolutionaries, Vladimir Lenin and leon Trotsky, had been forced to flee to Switzerland (Stalin was not yet in Austria to flee, and when he was caught by authorites trying to make it through Austria, he offered his services.) but, what good was one man going to do?

In attacking France through Belgium, the Germans had brought Britain into the war. Suddenly, the British were blockading Germany, forcing German U-boasts to try to sink anything and everything they could.

This especially became significant because the Ottomans had been knocked out of the war months earlier, increasing pressure on the Germans. The Ottomans surrendered and made a separate peace in order to prevent Constantinople from falling.(1) The combined weight of the militaries had taken its toll.

Germany was fearing losing already as the Austrians discussed a separate peace, one which the British and French accepted; after all, their part in the war had started when their emperor was assassinated.(2) Historians would later consider the start of the war to be the Italian attack on Libya, but in a way, it was sort of like two wars that merged.

Germany was really in for it when a German U-boat sank a cruise ship with 219 Americans on board in late July. Americans were outraged, and President Roosevelt didn’t hesitate to ask Congress to declare war (they did) and order mobilization.(3)

General Frederick Funston launched into a full-scale effort to get American troops ready after the declaration of war in the first week of August. A Selective Service Act was discussed and agreed to by October, and in that same month, Funston led 15,000 American troops over to France, while at the same time leaving General John “Black Jack” Pershing back home to lead the extensive training of the men; Pershing had argued for much more rigorous training, so he seemed the perfect man to handle that detail. However, Pershing would soon find himself in Funston’s shoes, though not where it was thought.(4)

Congress had taken time to grant Puerto Ricans citizenship so they, too, could be drafted. The minor delays meant that the draft was only really up and running for a few months before many of the men went back to work with an armistice signed. However, Roosevelt had other ideas about how to use them, so as not to waste an opportunity to “show America’s might.”

One was in Armenia. The Three Pashas ruling Ottoman lands began to balk at the peace treaty, while at the same time rounding up many ethnic Armenians – as well as Kurds and other non-Turkish groups – and slaughtering them. The only good part was that many tens of thousands were able, with Russian help, to escape to Russia, though many more died.(5) American troops helped the refugees while Herbert Hoover was placed in charge of food provisions for them, just as he’d done in helping Belgium with food and, once they surrendered during the winter of 1913-4, Germany.

It was here that General Funston suffered a heart attack brought on by overwork, though looking back, one could see that he was suffering in early 1914; he’d just ignored some warning signs of a heart attack, and may have had a small one in February as well. This work was left to underlings as he recovered – and eventually retired due to health concerns, though, as it was apparent that U.S. military action wouldn’t be needed or helpful, and the troops who were there went home quickly.

This left General Pershing as the commander who would take American troops on their next mission. And, it led to some major controversy which had begun in France.

A soldier with a black regiment, James Reese Europe, won several citations for bravery after fending off a German attack in December of 1913. There had been a supposed “gentleman’s agreement” not to award Medals of Honor to black men, but after reviewing his record, President Roosevelt insisted he be given one. He then began a 5-minute lecture to the Southern officer who had complained to him about this, speaking of the Rough Riders and the black regiments which had fought so valiantly in Cuba.

Roosevelt urged a member of Congress to make the motion to give him the Medal of Honor, since the chain of command wouldn’t do so. Using his “bully pulpit” he successfully pushed it through, angering Southerners even more.

“While this is seen by modern scholars as a lack of racism,” a Roosevelt biographer noted, “it is more in keeping with the fact Roosevelt took great pride in American military might, and was showing a desire for America to become the ‘policeman of the world,’ as William Jennings Bryan criticized him. Between the ones who had fought valiantly in Cuba and and General Pershing’s Buffalo Soldiers, he knew blacks could be distinguished military men. Whereas, if some had had their way, they would not have fought in Europe, or at least not in combat. Roosevelt insisted they be allowed in combat.”

The second came in Mexico. In February of 1913, the United States Ambassador to Mexico, when asked to intervene by Mexican President Francisco Madero when Madero was being overthrown in a coup, he took a hands-off policy, saying he was simply concerned bout American citizens, but that if Madero wished to seek asylum he could. A few days later, when told by forces loyal to the rebel leader that the problem with Madero would be “germinated,” he informed Madero that it was wise for him to seek asylum again, which he did, hoping the Roosevelt Administration, given Roosevelt’s history of intervening in things, might be more sympathetic to his cause.(6)

Madero was taken secretly to the United States, where General Huerta, the new ruler, figured he would live in peace, and told Madero, in essence, “If you come back you will die.”

Pancho Villa, whose insubordination had started the whole mess between Madero and Huerta, led a revolt against Huerta. In spring of 1914, he led raids into the United States, killing several U.S. citizens and doing much damage. Roosevelt threatened military action if Mexico wouldn’t pay. When they refused, it was the perfect chance for Roosevelt to intervene and use those many U.S. troops before they stood down.

Thousands of U.S. troops under General Pershing crossed into Mexico, including some of Pershing’s Buffalo Soldiers. Therein lied the second problem. The Buffalo Soldiers, being blcks, were ones that Pancho Villa thought might be more sympathetic to his plight once he found himself on the run. Instead, they captured him and brought him to justice back in the U.S..

However, in Texas the soldiers transporting Villa were attacked and almost lynched, and were it not for one very alert townsperson, Villa would have gotten away!

“Southern Mob Nearly Frees Villa” screamed the headlines throughout the country. Suddenly, Southern racists were tied to Pancho Villa, and all sorts of wild stories were flying. Roosevelt was particularly incensed; people had lost property and even died at the hands of Villa nd his men. When he demanded an explanation from the men who had assaulted the prisoners, their response was less than satisfactory. In essence, they had said that they would rather Pancho Villa destroy their own homes then let a black man be a hero.

Some said they thought Roosevelt would send the Army to destroy Houston next. He didn’t, but he used the word “treason” when referring to those who had tried to release Pancho Villa. This ignited even more controversy. In the end, not only Mexico but a few U.S. towns had to be pacified as troops tried to stop the violence. And, when one soldier wrote President Roosevelt with a plan to integrate the United States military as a solution to that problem, the president was at least willing to listen. After all, the Navy had been integrated for decades.

With Southerners such as Woodrow Wilson falling out of disfavor with part of the Democratic Party, as 1916 dawned and the U.S. was just finishing up restoring Madero to power completely, William Jennings Bryan looked more and more popular. However, enough Southern Democrats had been upset by Roosevelt’s actions that it was uncertain if anyone could get a 2/3 majority of Democratic delegates – or maybe even a simple majority.

So, since it’s a slightly better stopping point, we’ll look at that first, before covering events in Europe after the Great War.

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(1) OTL, the Ottomans and Italians settled their war in fall of 1912; it could last longer with Italy having more to contend with, but Bulgaria also being involved helps to finally bring about a victory over the Ottomans, even if the Russian delegation in the Caucasus is small. The First Balkan War against the Ottomans had also been pretty fast, and while Serbia will be preoccupied here – and much is just plain occupied – Bulgaria, Greece, and the Italians make up for that, though it still takes some time and help from the British and French.

(2) OTL an attempt was made but was unsuccessful; here, the fact it was the emperor and not the heir, plus the fact that the root of the war is muddled, lets the British and French accept, as the Ottomans got out earlier in the same way.

(3) While probably not the same as OTL’s Lusitania, the U-boat activity meant something like this could happen at some point in the war.

(4) OTL he led the AEF because of Funston’s death from overwork after greater preparation; here, Funston is a little younger, so he will take more time working himself to death..

(5) The genocide is still large, meaning over a million people die, but without the preoccupation of the war there is at least some ability on other nations’ parts to help.

(6) OTL the man appointed by Taft told Madero to surrender, and seemed to actively take sides by doing nothing. This appointee by Bryan will be more of a supporter of the people who had freely elected Madero, and therefore a bit more sympathetic, though still not getting involved. Madero, on the other hand,
 
Part 8 – The Wacky 1916 Democratic National Convention

Except for 1904, only one man had run for President of the United States from the Democratic Party since 1892 – and only two since 1880, Cleveland and Bryan, except for that ’04 run. Since Grover Cleveland was dead, and William Jennings Bryan had already done it four times, many decided a 5th was fine.

Two problems existed. Bryan was only 1 for 4. And, while Roosevelt did seem way too bullish on war for some, he had promised to serve only one term, and so unless he was specifically asked to run, he would instead appoint a successor and that successor would be harder to beat. Indeed, that successor came in the person of Charles Evens Hughes.

Bryan was tired, anyway, and surely another candidate would emerge.

Woodrow Wilson, Bryan’s 1912 V.P. nominee, was one such possibility. However, he had a few problems. First, he’d lost in 1912 after replacing the then-sitting Vice President on the ticket since the latter had been old. Second, he was really bland. Third, though he’d supported Bryan and Bryan had put up with him as a running mate, once the United States entered the war in Mexico Wilson supported it, and he’d even supported getting involved in Europe whereas Bryan had been totally against taking any side in either place.

This also eliminated those who believed like Wilson – Southerners who had gained power and in some cases branched out into other states. Bryan was correct in noting that there were already major tensions, and that what was needed was not more antagonism, but less. Bryan said famously just before this convention, “For decades there has been little problem in the way of race in this country. The problem came when a few men happened to be heroes. So what? If we let the problem die down, people will forget about it. With an army of only 100,000 men, what Roosevelt has chosen to do won’t matter.”

Representative Champ Clark, who had been Speaker of the House for a while, was also a candidate. However, Bryan wasn’t too pleased with him, either. That, according to one writer, wasn’t unusual, of course. “The only candidate totally pleasing to Bryan is himself,” they said.

The first ballot was a mish mash of Wilson, Clark, Representative A. Mitchell Palmer, former Representative and Ohio Governor James Cox, Senator Robert L. Owen, and a number of favorites of individual states such as Thomas R. Marshall, Carter Glass, and Oscar W Underwood, among numerous others. William G. McAdoo tried, but Wilson, his father-in-law, blocked him, feeling he himself had the better chance to win, since he had “more political experience,” though that was only the terms as New Jersey Governor and Princeton President. Indeed, Wilson would also manage to block McAdoo from gaining any momentum in 1920.

Nobody could even get half the votes for a few dozen ballots as everyone jockeyed for position, gaining and then losing steam. Wilson gained some support among other Southerners, but couldn’t get over the hump, as Cox’s and other supporters felt a person with Southern ties couldn’t win against Hughes; yes, most were racist, but some, such as Glass, were much more so, and blatant about it. When Palmer approached Wilson about running as Vice President under him, Bryan supported Cox. However, that only pushed Cox over 50%. Southerners’ power meant they could block him getting to 2/3.

Finally, about the 45th ballot, with Cox losing delegates again, Wilson was ready to drop out and throw his support to whoever he felt most likely to win. Bryan feared that Wilson would support Palmer, who had been too anxious for war and for cracking down on dissidents at home. With no real threat at the moment, Bryan felt there was no need to do this. Therefore, he offered himself as a compromise, and suggested a moderate Southerner, Oscar Underwood, as his running mate to appease the Southern delegates and head off a party split. He told Cox that, since he would only serve this second term, he would support Cox in 1920, thereby garnering his support for Bryan in 19156. (Besides, he noted, Cox would gain more experience with another 4 years at the state level.)

Tired of the entire fiasco, Cox threw in the towel, hopeful he could win the nomination later; he was only in his mid-40s, after all, and could end up running in 20 years. After all, Bryan was doing that.

Bryan purposely stayed away from the race issue, touting peace as a solution. “If we have an Army of a mere 100,000 men, what difference does it make?...While it is good that America has helped its neighbor to the south by placing their rightfully elected President Madero back in power, there are too many squabbles down there and too much that can go wrong. America needs her people at home, tending her farms, raising her families, and as President Washington urged, remaining out of all international affairs.”

Bryan’s supporters would often sing a song to the tune of “Give me that old time religion,” “Give me that old foreign policy, give me that old foreign policy. It was good ‘nough for Washington, and that’s good enough for me.”

While Roosevelt tried to tout America’s strength in campaigning for Hughes, he realized that people were getting tired of the conflict in Mexico; one of the reasons he’d decided not to run, as he admitted privately that it was tempting to go against the “2 full terms” tradition, especially since he’d already served more than 8 years. He’d experimented with integrated forces in Mexico on a very limited basis and found that they worked well if certain segments weren’t allowed to be within those integrated forces. So, people had no reason to complain. Nor could they find much room to complain about with the Social Security Act that Congress had passed, or other Progressive legislation. Indeed, he and Bryan were somewhat similar there.

The election instead boiled down to foreign policy. People would wonder, in later years, if things might have been different with a staunch Conservative running for the Democrats. Instead, he and Bryan were both undisputed leaders of their parties, with Knox having lost in 1908 to cause the Conservatives in the Republican Party to wane. And, the most conservative members of the Democrats were the Southerners, who weren’t as well known on the national stage, nor could they be counted on to win national elections.

Roosevelt had brought the Progressives in the GOP to the fore. However, on Election Day, 1916, William Jennings Bryan won over the less experienced Hughes, who had been tied to TR at a time when people were tired .of the Mexican intervention and the chaos soldiers told of.

Roosevelt congratulated Bryan on his win. And then planned to try and find some kidn of adventure to go on. And, who knew, he might just run again in 1920.

But, as he was careful to point out, he would never do what some in Mexico had done. He hoped that American advisors were helping the Mexicans to understand how true democracy worked. Because if they hadn’t, Bryan’s laying off of them certainly wouldn’t help them learn.
 
Part 9 – Meanwhile, In Europe, an Uneasy Peace

President Roosevelt had sent people to Europe, involving members of both parties, as the treaties were laid out ending the Great War at different times. Woodrow Wilson had even gone, as had Elihu Root and others.

The southern portion had been easy. Italy gained Trieste and more from Austria(1) and Libya from the Ottomans, but so as not to reward blind aggression and to keep Serbia from growing too large, Italy wasn’t given any of Albania, which became independent. The Greeks maintained their hold on the Dodecanes, Bulgaria kept their gains, and Albania was given more of Macedonia and also Montenegro was placed in a union with it so as not to reward Serbia too much, since it did appear that the assassination had been official Serb policy. In return, Serbia was allowed access to the sea in what would become the Kingdom of Yugoslavia.(2)

The remainder of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, minus parts of Transylvania which Romania had taken, was being formed by Franz Ferdinand into a confederation with numerous other ethnic groups also present; they’d offered this to the slavs in what would be Yugoslava but that was rejected.

Although, given the lack of cohesion among Austrian forces, Ferdinand had to wonder how much of the former empire would be left. Already rumblings of Hungary leaving the Empire upset over losing Transylvania were being heard.

Germany had lost rather handily; since France and Russia had agreed on the latter setting a new Eastern border (while France, of course, regained Alsace and Lorraine), Russia allowed for the recreation of the Duchy of Poland out of Austrian and GermanPoland, so as to have a buffer state between Russia and Germany. However, with that nation becoming independent and with struggles in Russian Armenia and in what Russia had taken from the Ottomans, there were people claiming that Russia didn’t get enough. It was harder to see the Germans as clear aggressors, as the war seemed to start a few different ways. However, that didn’t stop the Allies from at least limiting Germany’s navy and army.

Poland was placed in the Russian sphere of influence, and Russia tried to encourage its own Poles to emigrate there any way they could. Brusilov knew the Empire still had problems, though, even with the victory. He hope4d that the border state would be enough to prevent other rebellions from breaking out.

Raymond Poincare had become Prime Minister of France when the country showed a need for great strength in making sure the Germans were defeated. He used that to rise to the Presidency when the former President didn’t stand for re-election. However, while he wanted to see France occupy the Rhineland until German debt was repaid, he was being shouted down by other Europeans as sounding far too harsh; yes, the war had been tough for a couple years but it wasn’t nearly as rough as it could have been.

Aristide Briand had become the new Prime Minister, though Georges Clemenceau also played a large part in the government. He proposed a trade union of sorts between the many nations, as a way to keep track of German development. He also was one of those who helped to insist that the more industrialized part of Eastern Germany be given to Poland, a plan which was accepted along with giving Alsace and Lorraine back to France.

British Prime Minister Asquith might have been voted out of office had the war gone on a year or more longer. As it was, however, he had been able to steer things toward possible Home rule in Ireland as well as provide the British with a great victory, which greatly enhanced the prestige of the Liberals at the expense of his rival in the party, David Lloyd George. The British Liberal Party would continue to be a force in this TL.(3)

The peace conference went on for many months, as the nations on both sides were eager to avoid instability in their ranks. Franz Ferdinand was hanging on by a thread, and had basically been told that his government better be popular and do what people want or his federation would come apart quite messily; some were already comparing it to the United States under the Articles of Confederation. Nicholas II was being pressured to end the problems with the Ottomans. Wilhelm II found Germans totally unsure of what they wanted, with various different factions involved. Some in Europe urged a quick peace to be signed, lest Communists try to take over in Germany. They pointed out how Prime Minister Giolitti had saved his job and won more time in office because of the peace with Austria-Hungary in 1913.

Now an out of work spy, Joseph Stalin joined Lenin and Trotsky in Geneva. They plotted what to do. Each one was, of course, Russian, but it would now be more difficult for them to overthrow the Tsar. While generals such as Aleksei Brusilov – a national hero for having “won the war” – believed radical change was needed, it was more likely that Brusilov himself would be named as a ruler than it was for the Bolsheviks to win. Brusilov was still a monarchist, after all, and would seemingly support the Tsar.

Of course, if the Tsar died, perhaps that would change things. They began to discuss a plan to kill top members of the royal family.

Another possible place for them to foment revolution was Germany, where people were quite upset with the Kaiser. In fact, a few nations seemed on the brink of rebellion, as if the war had ended just soon enough to prevent major rioting.



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(1) Basically what they did OTL after WW 1

(2) There was a push for an Illyrian country, and unless one totally made everyone independent it’s hard to imagine what else could be done. The Balkans are a mess in many TLs.

(3) A nod to a really good TL on this site. A different POD than his, which is all the way into 1922, but it does establish one leader as the definite champion of it, so infighting can't hurt it as much.
 
Part 10: Ottoman Revanchism, the Three Pashas, and Settling Scores Elsewhere

Even before the rest of the Central Powers were defeated, political instability in the Ottoman Empire led to a coup. Following a short Civil War, three men rose to lead known collectively as the “three pashas,” Mehmed Talaat, Ismail Enver, and Ahmed Djmail.

Instability had racked the empire for quite a while. The 1908 Young Turks rebellion had led to what had seemed like a better, more modern state. However, that group itself had been divided, and with the bitter defeat, hardliners began to gain the upper hand – people who were non-secular, some of whom Mustafa Kemal claimed were “very dangerous.”

When the Ottomans left the war in early 1913, part of the treaty they eventually signed, and which the grand vizier approved, called with the establishment of six regions of autonomy for Ottoman minorities, including two Armenian ones. Each would be led by either a European inspector-general or an Ottoman Christian. The goal was to deal peacefully with Armenian affairs, which greatly concerned Russia, since they also had an Armenian population and considered themselves the protector of Armenians in the area.(1)

The Three Pashas headed the group which had won out. The Armenians, once considering the Young Turks as allies, soon found themselves blamed for the defeat. This blame was aided by the appearance of hundreds of thousands of Muslim refugees from the Balkans who were allowed to become riled up against Armenians, Kurds, and other groups. However, even in 1909, some 10-15,000 civilians had been killed.(2) this had helped to lead to this becoming part of the treaty, as were the Ottoman losses in Europe save for the area around the Bosphorus, which was surrounded itself by Bulgaria now.(3)

The pan-Turkish movement gained much of its steam while the Allies were finishing up World War One and the Ottomans sat on the sidelines. They riled the people up against the inspectorates, then resumed the war against Armenia and,, as a result, Russia. The Russians were overwhelmed with hundreds of thousands of refugees flooding into the Caucasus.(4)

Germany’s Wilhelm II had already abdicated in favor of his son, Wilhelm III, by the start of 1915, as peace descended upon Europe. The germans had been forced to accept a much more powerful Reichstag. Austria was dissolving to the point that Franz Ferdinand may only rule Austria itself soon. This was leading many minorities to insist on separation from Russia. Russian forces were feeling quite overwhelmed. “The only good news,” Brusilov remarked early in 1915, “is that the people hve food. He recognized, however, that the Czar himself was becoming more and more unpopular.

The war against the Ottomans needed to stop. The Ottomans weren’t the pushover they had been in earlier years, not with the loads of manpower they had coming in, and even without that, it might have been a close call. Brusilov was doing all he could, but the Czar and that crazy Rasputin were uring him to keep fighting and take “all of the Ottoman Empire.’ Brusilov was a very good general, but he was having trouble just controlling Armenia against the fanatical Ottomans. And, the Poles in Warsaw were demanding their freedom to join the Duchy of Poland, too.
The last straw came late in 1915, when the Russian breadbasket, the Ukraine, began to experience an uprising. The Czar (well, really Rasputin, some said) didn’t seem to be capable of leading the Russian people anymore.

Always a monarchist, what Brusilov did in February of 1916 broke his heart. He knew that if the Ukranians succeeded while the Ottoman struggle continued, there would be no hope. Already the spy Stalin, Trotsky, and Lenin were back in Russia fomenting rebellion, and Brusilov needed to put a stop to it. When the Czar asked him what he should do, he told him, point blank, “Sire, I am saddened to say I see no future for you as ruler. If we do not end this madness now, now that we have saved the refugees and have some hope of saving face through having done that, I am afraid the state will plunge into civil war. I think it best if I am allowed to help get rid of this Bolshevism before it becomes too popular.”(5)

The Czar understood. The Kaiser had saved his job by being willing to give a lot of power away and to abdicate, but he hadn’t been. He and his family left for Britain and exile, while Brusilov became the military ruler of the country while things got sorted out, after the bloodless coup.

“It was said that only Brusilov, because he had wont he previous war, could have done this and gotten enough support to crusht he growing Bolshevik rebellion,” one historian noted later. “The people and the Czar both realized he was a well-respected figure, and his rule really was rather mld compared to what a lot of others might have been, for there were intense radicals on the left and the right in these days in Russia.”

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(1) An OTL treaty from February of 1914 which came after the Balkan Wars, it was abandoned with the Great War breaking out. Here, it is a result of the Great War.

(2) OTL’s Adana Massacre

(3) Pretty much the borders after the Second Balkan War, in other words.

(4) TTL’s Armenian Massacre is horrible, but maybe half of what it was OT, because the Russians are in a position to try to help them, though it then causes discontent elsewhere

(5) the scene is reminiscent of OTL when the German Kaiser was told by one of his top generals, also a monarchist, that it was best if he stepped down.
 
Conclusion – A Few Pieces of The World in 1950

Japan expanded till they fought a costly war with the United States in the early 1940s, wherein they were soundly defeated. China became one of the focal points of American interest when Communists gained the upper hand after the defeat of the Japanese, leading to them being the only major Communist power in the world. The U.S. has major military bases in the unified Korean peninsula as it tries to contain the Chinese and prevent them from influencing India or Southeast Asia.

Ironically, the Vietnamese have a friend in Russia, where Brusilov’s military dictatorship spawned a moderate right-wing government which has been very helpful to the United states, although there are complaints that it just exchanged one totalitarian regime for another. However, human rights tend to be accepted for the most part, and they at least allowed many Jews to migrate back to the homeland created and still run by Britain after the British and French took over the former Ottoman Empire after its collapse followed the Ottoman War, whichs aw the Ottomans attempt a large surge into Russia, Greece, and Bulgaria and even Persia before they were finally subdued, with Britain and France entering, too, to ensure that the Russians didn’t gain to much. The war ended up draining lots of Russian manpower over several years..

Europe

Bulgaria was given control of the Bosporus following the war in 1932, while other Eastern European nations have largely siply muddled along. Germany has largely rebuilt itself into a minor power, along with Italy, but there are great concernsthat if the more moderate nations of Britain and especially France were to los their colonies (which is possible) that the germans may try to sway them into their sphere of influence; it’s already been happening in a few minor ways, as Germany helped Egypt in the wake of the Ottoman War.

United States

President Bryan kept his word and supported James M. Cox for President in 1920. The people saw Bryan as a man of peace and had begun to associate Progessivism with war, meaning that the more conservative Cox – though not as progressive as Bryan – was what the people wanted. Cox served 2 terms as the Progressive in the Democratic Party began to move toward the Republican Party.

A major global recession came partly due to economic policy in 1929, and the President at that time, Al Smith, tried to help, but ended up losing re-election to Robert LaFollette, Jr. Smith had only been elected because the nativism of the 19210s and 1920s had died down and the Democrats seemed to have it in the bag. Smith won, and most people don’t realize that he tried to help stabilize the economy, but it was still, in one historian’s words, “as bad as 1837, which cost Van Buren the election, though the problem had really been Jackson’s policies.”

LaFollette had seemed somewhat weak by the end of his 2 terms, though, and he would die a few years later of heart problems. However, Wendell Wilkie, elected as a Democrat over the GOP challenger(1) due to the deepening international crisis, died in office in 1944. His V.P., Alben Barkley, lost the election to Thomas Dewey, as the war with japan was over by that point, and his health was an issue, as he’d had a mild heart attack.(2)

Now in his 2nd term, Dewey, the 35th President of the U.S., is making headway toward Civil Rights, actually having passed a bill for it and voting rights, each of which has teeth. While Jim Crow Southerners still exist, the moderation of what could have been a major problem after 1900, plus television showing it more and more and also the horrors of racism shown to Americans in the Ottoman War, the Armenian Massacre before that, and the most recent war with japan, have highlighted the evils that many are starting to feel must be overcome. The U.S. is shaping into a nation which – with a very likely Civil Rights movement in the 1950s to cement the laws passed recently – seems well on its way to becoming a place where Progressive ideals an liberty and justice for all can truly set down root and be allowed to grow.

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(1) He was a Democrat till splitting with FDR OTL.

(2) Truman said he’d likely not survive logn as President OTL, a mild heart attack is certainly possible a la Eisenhower’s. Wilkie probably dies a few months early here. Plus, the war starts earlier than December 7, 1941 in TTL.
 
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