The Invisible Primary of 2011
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I somehow managed to miss this when you first posted it, so great work!
I think it's worth remembering that it's not necessarily that Clinton TTL is doing exactly the same things as Obama OTL - it's just that the same hostile media elements will bang square or triangular pegs into round holes and create the same, or a similar, narrative either way; Plumber is showing us this ATL through the lens of that media.
Precisely. I've had a lot of fun with that so far, but here's something original:
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[FONT="][FONT="]The First Invisible Primary[/FONT]
“The single most important thing we want to achieve is for Hillary Clinton to be a one-term president.” – Senate Minority Leader Jon Kyl (R-AZ), October 23, 2010[/FONT]
[FONT="]There had been speculation that Mike Huckabee, the runner-up to John McCain in 2008, was the favorite to win the 2012 nomination. Although he certainly could have been a contender for the Republican primaries based on polling (indeed, he was one of the rare candidates who appealed to both the Tea Party as well as to more moderate Republicans), he opted to cash his chips for money, not power. With a show on
Fox making a Huckabee presidential run increasingly unlikely possibility (although he did not officially rule herself out until October of 2011) the frontrunner spot was left in a vague haze between 2008 Vice Presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty and 2008 third-place Mitt Romney. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Or so it was thought. [/FONT]
[FONT="]During the spring of 2011, Roger Ailes, the president of Fox News, advised General David Petraeus to run for President in 2012. Petraeus was being considered for Director of the CIA at the time, but Ailes, communicating through Kathleen McFarland, a Fox News analyst and former Pentagon aid, insisted that Petraeus should settle for the Joint Chief of Staff or a presidential run. Petraeus was initially hesitant. Ailes offered to resign from Fox to become Petraeus’ campaign manager, and Newscorp head Rupert Murdoch would “bankroll” the campaign. Petraeus rejected the offer, saying that his wife “would kill me. And I love my wife.” However, he did not completely close the door on the offer. Petraeus also commented that Fox had become increasingly critical of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq under Hillary Clinton, and compared this to the treatment of the Iraq War under President George W. Bush by
The New York Times.[/FONT]
[FONT="]A notable shift in Fox News’ coverage of President Clinton's war policies occurred on February 19th, when NATO began intervention in the Libyan Revolution according to UN Resolution 1969. Although the Libyan dictator, Muammar Gaddafi, had been seen as an enemy of the United States since coming to power in 1969, and a wide sponsor of terrorism through Libya’s vast oil wealth, in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks, he moved towards a détente with the George W. Bush Administration. Fox News coverage of the intervention praised it as being necessary, and focused on Ronald Reagan’s 1986 bombing of Libya and Gaddafi’s extensive record of sponsoring terrorism. While some in the media were afraid that the Libyan rebels were affiliates of al-Qaeda or other Islamic extremist groups, Fox News compared them to freedom fighters such as the American Revolutionaries under George Washington, the Free French under Charles de Gaulle and (more controversially) the Nicaraguan Contras. Ailes then called Petraeus personally, to ask him if he was absolutely confident he didn’t want to run for President in 2012. Petraeus mulled over the offer for about a month.[/FONT]
[FONT="]On April 1, 2011, Petraeus resigned from the United States military and announced that he was running for President in 2012. The date caused some confusion, but since it was a Friday, Petraeus dominated the weekend news, and coverage of him continued into the next few news cycles. Consistent polls showed that had the election been held in April 2011, Petraeus would have come on top of President Clinton. Petraeus was the first choice of 60% of Republicans. By this point, candidates Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Buddy Roemer, and Tim Pawlenty had announced exploratory committees in preparation for presidential runs of their own. Pawlenty would withdraw and endorse Petraeus, Mitt Romney held off announcing an exploratory committee of their own, while libertarian-leaning candidates Gary Johnson and Ron Paul entered the race outright. Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, Mitch Daniels, and Haley Barbour ruled out runs for the presidency altogether. Newt Gingrich, Buddy Roemer, and Herman Cain would ultimately enter the race in mid-May.[/FONT]
[FONT="] Following the announcement, the Clinton Administration became more noticeably more hawkish. The most notable policy effects included an increased role in the Libyan Revolution, and increased pressure on President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, the Al Khalifa family in Bahrain, and President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, all of whom were increasingly unpopular during the Arab Spring. This diplomatic pressure had mixed results: the situations in Syria and Bahrain were effectively unchanged (critics on the left charged that in the wake of Saudi intervention in Bahrain, Clinton was only offering
pro forma rhetoric for the Bahraini protesters), while President Saleh did resign from the Yemeni presidency in mid-April and left for exile in the United States. The most notable change came on May 1st, eight years to the day of President George W. Bush’s famous “Mission Accomplished” speech. Gaddafi had been killed in an airstrike, along with his wife, his youngest son, and three of his grandchildren. Hillary Clinton’s ratings soured to 55%, after being underwater since mid-2010. The Libyan War would end with glowing press coverage May 3rd, which emboldened hawks and liberal interventionists within the Clinton Administration.[/FONT]
[FONT="]June brought increased complications in foreign policy. On the 3rd, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia was assassinated by an RPG attack on the Saudi royal palace. He was succeeded by the Sultan bin Abdulazizz, who became King Sultan. In practice, the ultraconservative Crown Prince Nayef took active control of the Saudi state from Sultan, who was deeply afflicted with dementia by the time of his reign. Nayef was angry at the Obama Administration for criticizing outcome of the Bahraini Spring, and the Obama Administration had to work overtime to prevent relations from cooling under a more reactionary Saudi government. Nayef was very intent on toppling the Iran-aligned Assad regime in Syria, and the Clinton Administration agreed to start giving weapons and training to the Syrian rebels. Events then moved rapidly. On June 9th, the formation Free Syrian Army was announced. On June 10th, protests in Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, broke out. On June 12th, the Syrian military shot down two Turkish military jets. Although the Assad regime insisted it was an accident, Turkey’s Erdogan government responded belligerently, and in the election that day won 60% of the popular vote, and over 2/3rds of the seats in the Grand Assembly, enough to unilaterally rewrite the Turkish Constitution without the need to have a referendum on the changes. NATO was convened to discuss Article 4, and Erdogan consulted with the other parties in parliament to prepare for the possibility of war. Turkey and Syria started engaging in border clashes. French President Sarkozy championed for outright intervention, pointing to Libya as quick and easy success. President Medvedev of Russia stated his opposition to a UN-led intervention, but not as forcefully as Iran, who rallied behind Assad. [/FONT]
[FONT="]On June 29th, Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke died of a heart attack while meeting with Medvedev in an emergency summit in Crimea. Holbrooke’s last words were reportedly “you’ve got to end this war in Syria” to the Ukrainian President. Although later it was revealed this was a comical gesture towards her, it was initially interpreted seriously. This increased public pressure of President Clinton to back UN intervention in Syria. Republicans attacked Clinton for either being a warmonger or not enough of one, and the partisanship of the attacks was criticized. Petraeus made a statement excoriating this “divisive partisanship” and noted that the proper response was ultimately up the Commander-in-Chief.[/FONT]
[FONT="]With Petraeus’ help President Clinton was able to successfully use the crisis to portray herself as a strong and decisive leader. This boosted her approval ratings up into the high 50s. Petraeus gained increased support among Democrats and independents, but lost it sharply among Republicans. However, it was still expected Petraeus would become the nominee after this “Sister Souljah moment,” since he was Petraeus was generously funded by Rupert Murdoch and had Roger Ailes as his campaign manager. But these strengths became his weaknesses. Noted journalist Bob Woodward got his hands on audio recordings of the initial Ailes-Petraeus exchanges, and released them to the press in on July 1st. The controversy over the Ailes-Petraeus talks was soon replaced by the controversy over wider phone hacking scandal in the United Kingdom. On July 4th, it was revealed that Rupert Murdoch’s
News of the World had hacked into the phones of murdered schoolgirl Milly Dowler and victims of the 7/7 London bombings. On July 7th, it was revealed that
News of the World used bribery of police officers to gain information for their stories. The association of News Corporation with Petraeus greatly hurt Petraeus, and he was now trailing the President by ten points. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Tension developed between Ailes and Petraeus during this period: Petraeus blamed his association with New Corporation as hurting his polling, while Ailes thought Petraeus insufficiently critical of the President, especially on Syria. Instead, Petraeus kept praising Clinton’s foreign policy record. Petraeus’ praise of Clinton drew criticism from many on the right, including Fox News, but the loudest critic was from Alaska Senator Sarah Palin. Petraeus subsequently lost support from the more conservative Republicans, particularly those who identified with the Tea Party. Palin shortly afterwards announced that she was entering the presidential race as “the conservative candidate.” On July 10th,
News of the World was shut down. It had begun in 1843. Investigations against News Corp were launched in the United Kingdom and the United States.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Suddenly, on July 11th, the Buenos Aires Saudi and Israeli embassies were bombed, and the Saudi Ambassador to the United States, Adel al-Jubeir, was assassinated by a member of a Mexican Drug Cartel. The assassination brought the nation’s attention towards the Mexican Drug War, which had been considered by the Pentagon to be the greatest threat to United States national security before the 2008 financial crisis (it was replaced by the economic situation), but was ignored in favor of coverage of the Iraq and Afghan Wars. The relationship between Ailes and Petraeus deteriorated again due to disagreements over the Fox News coverage of the al-Jubeir assassination. The network relentlessly attacked the Clinton administration for inept handling of the assassination, and implied that the President has subversive motives. This line of attack quickly gained traction within the Republican Party. MSNBC led a charge insinuating that the coverage was a purposeful distraction from the ongoing News Corporation scandal, and a disloyal smearing of a Commander-and-Chief during a potential wartime situation. Petraeus held Ailes responsible for the Fox News coverage of the incident, and coverage of their backroom rift made it into mainstream media reporting. Palin (who, incredibly, had not even been a Republican the year earlier) began to become a threat to Petraeus’ lead, and while Petraeus still narrowly led for the nomination, he was now within the margin of error. Her momentum was interrupted by the revelation that the assassination of Ambassador al-Jubeir by a Mexican drug cartel was actually a proxy assassination by the Iranian government. [/FONT]
[FONT="]Hawks cried that Syria and Iran were preparing to wage a two-pronged war on the West and its allies. Fox and friends cried the Clinton Administration had suppressed the information in order to “appease” Iran. Iran denied a connection, and experts on the region were skeptical that such a plot originated from the Iranian leadership, although it was acknowledged that rogue members of the Iranian government may have been behind the plot. Saudi Arabia began engaging in naval clashes with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, while Israeli Prime Minister Lieberman authorized an airstrike that went through Saudi airspace (with implicit approval) to strike the Iranian nuclear facility of Fardow, near the holy city of Qom. Tensions between the United States and Iran were higher than at any time since the 1979-1980 hostage crisis. With these events occurring simultaneous to increasingly frequent clashes between Syria and the Free Syrian Army within Syria, and between Syria and Turkey on the Syrian-Turkish border, it seemed that widespread war was imminent. Clinton walked a thin line by condemning Iran and escalating sanctions, but stepped back from supporting the Israeli airstrike or urging for a wider war with Iran. The Assad regime was not so lucky.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Syria was suspended from the Arab League on July 21st. After the July 31st Ramadan Massacre, a UN humanitarian intervention force was approved in Resolution 1982, led largely by NATO and Russian forces. Almost immediately, Assad agreed to peace talks between the Syrian government and the opposition. The Aleppo Accords would be mediated by UN Special Delegate Kofi Annan, Arab League Special Delegate Amr Moussa, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé, British Foreign Minister William Hague, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and United States Secretary of State Susan Rice. The main points of the Accords involved Brigadier General Manaf Tlass leading an interim Syrian government, which would hold free elections in 2012. Assad received clemency and went to exile in the United Kingdom. The Accords were negotiated on and off during the summer and concluded on September 11th, 2011, the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The Accords would cap off Hillary Clinton’s foreign policy success in her first term, notwithstanding Republican criticism of her failure to find Osama bin Laden. The Accords would also greatly boost Amr Moussa’s career, and he would use the prestige gained to reach the Egyptian Presidency in the 2012 election, defeating liberal Islamist candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh by a healthy margin. [/FONT]
[FONT="]With Clinton’s approval ratings stronger than they had been since her honeymoon period, she was able to increase her leverage over the Republican Congress. The debt ceiling needed to be raise by August 2nd, or the United States would default on its debt. Ultimately, Obama and the Republicans reached a grand bargain to a reduction of discretionary spending over the next ten years by $2 trillion. This included cuts to defense, Medicare and Medicaid, other healthcare programs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, farm subsidies and conservation programs, and the Postal Service. Social Security benefits would start being calculated under a “chained CPI” policy starting in 2015—an effective cut. In addition, revenue would be raised by $2 trillion, primarily through tax reform, including a negotiated (but not complete) end to the Bush tax cuts at the top marginal income and capital gains level, an increase in the estate tax, extension of the payroll tax cut, and the closing of numerous tax loopholes. Very Serious People wrote triumphal blog posts and news stories, as they are wont to do. [/FONT]
[FONT="]This bargain was opposed by conservatives and Tea Party freshman, who preferred a default to any tax increases at all. The opposition was led by Senator Palin (who used the issue to again start creeping upwards in the presidential field), Mike Lee, and Jim DeMint in the Senate, and Ron Paul (whose presidential candidacy had been damaged by two “splendid little wars” ), and Allen West in the House. The cuts were likewise attacked by several Democrats as too harsh, particularly those to Medicare and Medicaid, and “chained CPI” for Social Security, though even the leader of the party’s liberal wing, Senate Minority Whip Barack Obama, supported the deal. While the public wanted the deficit to be handled, anger from both the left and the right over the deal quickly soured its approval among the American public. “How Could Both Parties Be Wrong?” an op-ed from Ron Paul sarcastically asked (though his position of a default was even less popular.)[/FONT]
[FONT="]Clinton had navigated skillfully through domestic and foreign policy crises of the summer, overcoming traditional opposition from the Republicans and Russsians, who had both tended to oppose anything she did out of spite. While the Republican Party was blamed for the brunt of the debt ceiling crisis, President Clinton's approval ratings tumbled from mid 60s in Mid-July down to the mid-40s by October as the contractionary results that the “Grand Bargain” had on the economy became clear. As unemployment ticked up again, Petraeus managed to distance himself from congressional Republicans and railed against the President, who he said was a “Washington insider” who practiced “crony capitalism” and “crooked deals on the backs of the American people.” He began to consistently lead President Clinton in the polls.[/FONT]
[FONT="]The possibility of a President Petraeus proved short-lived following the revelation that Petraeus had engaged in an extramarital affair on August 9h. Immediately, Rick Santorum entered the race with a venomous criticism of Petraeus. This scandal stood in the shadow of “Carlos Dangergate,” another sex scandal that had occurred earlier in the summer. An increasingly humiliated Petraeus wanted to withdraw immediately[FONT="], [FONT="]but held on due to[/FONT] Ailes' protestations. The General finally [/FONT][/FONT][FONT="]withdrew from the race in the wake of Sarah Palin’s win of the Iowa Straw Poll on August 13th. There was a new frontrunner now. As Ailes slinked back to an increasingly-scrutinized Fox News, Pawlenty entered the race again. His lackluster numbers vis-à-vis Palin terrified the Establishment. “Boring Mormon Governors” Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney entered the race, but only weakened Pawlenty’s numbers.[/FONT]
