TLIAD: Be Careful What You Wish For
- Thread starter Thande
- Start date
I concur with the Hon. Members above - this really is cracking stuff Thande, I think that, with a few either side, this is pretty much identical to the prediction I made in the Union sweepstakes a few days before the first debate.
One butterfly I can see straight away is the result of the 2011 Scottish elections, given that you probably won't be seeing a LibDem whip-out and also a changed result in the Labour leadership race, especially if the Brothers reach somewhat of an agreement over David running, I think Ed had only made up his mind to do so after the coalition was formed.
One butterfly I can see straight away is the result of the 2011 Scottish elections, given that you probably won't be seeing a LibDem whip-out and also a changed result in the Labour leadership race, especially if the Brothers reach somewhat of an agreement over David running, I think Ed had only made up his mind to do so after the coalition was formed.
Thanks. 323! God, that's painful. The feel I get from this is that a lack of debates meant the Lib Dems didn't get quite as big a boost, Cameron maintained more of his 'we're the only change option' creds and as such did a bit better - but there are still underlying problems for the Tories that kept them out.
A Rainbow Coalition is even more unworkable IOTL so, to me, it looks like Cameron is 'seventy-four', so to speak.
No, they don't have the word 'Party' in their name, they're officially called the Liberal Democrats.
A Rainbow Coalition is even more unworkable IOTL so, to me, it looks like Cameron is 'seventy-four', so to speak.
No, they don't have the word 'Party' in their name, they're officially called the Liberal Democrats.
Quite so. The result in Fermanagh and South Tyrone as well as the improved result in Scotland, coupled with OTL's excellent showing in Wales, probably means that the Tories have a good chance of having the "Party of the Nations" vibe that somewhat countered against them back in 2010.
Thande
Donor
Good analysis, basically keys with what I'm getting at here. What I am trying to show with TTL is my opinion that the debates, and the 2010 campaign as a whole, changed less than people think. The main shift to the pre-election status quo was that the Lib Dems went from being in decline due to their leadership travails and not having A Big Issue like Iraq in '05 (they attempted it with MPs' expenses, but failed) to the media and some voters suddenly being reminded 'wait, there's a third option? That will shake things up!' We've discussed the lack of factuality of "Cleggmania" before,* but what the debate boost did do is largely cancel out the decline the Lib Dems were heading for beforehand. In TTL this doesn't happen. You'll notice the Labour vote is practically unchanged, because I've got the impression that most of the Lib Dems' seats are a Lib Dem/Tory seesaw, so as the Lib Dems' fortunes go down, the Tories' go up and vice versa, without Labour being significantly affected. I don't think 'Bigotgate' had anything like as big an effect as some people seem to think, either--here I change it so Brown is almost unambiguously in the right because it's a threatening thug rather than an old woman, and see how it makes barely any difference.
Also turnout is down 2% on OTL due to the lack of debates, which did serve to excite a few more people into voting but not to the extent some people have claimed IMO.
*While looking at the Telegraph's retrospective, they recorded that while other polls were showing the Lib Dems over 30% after the first debate, IPSOS-MORI got it right with a poll that had numbers almost identical to the eventual election result. I don't know what was so much better about their polling methodology...
Is it just me, or has this ended up pretty much the worst of all worlds for all three leaders (though possibly not necessarily the worst for the parties as a whole)? Cameron will have to deal with a Conservative sort-of majority that is only paper-thin and will evaporate whenever the awkward squad feel like it, and unless the economy improves drastically compared to OTL the Tories will be taking the full brunt of public discontent. Brown will certainly have to go after this outcome, so there will be a new Labour leader having to deal with the situation. Clegg might well have to go too after the losses the LibDems have taken, especially as there's no chance of them entering government in compensation (Cameron might want them to bolster his majority, but he has bugger all chance of bringing the party along with him when they can just about govern on their own). I think they would ITTL be able to recover most of their losses to the Tories at the next election though.
All-in-all, I don't think anybody can be truly satisfied with the outcome of the election. Cameron will have a lot of sleepless nights while Labour certainly and the LibDems possibly will have to get new leaders ahead of another election in probably only a few years time.
Will this continue through Cameron's term or has it finished now? I'd like to see more, but if it has finished it was certainly very plausible and interesting to read.
All-in-all, I don't think anybody can be truly satisfied with the outcome of the election. Cameron will have a lot of sleepless nights while Labour certainly and the LibDems possibly will have to get new leaders ahead of another election in probably only a few years time.
Will this continue through Cameron's term or has it finished now? I'd like to see more, but if it has finished it was certainly very plausible and interesting to read.
Thande
Donor
Also insightful, this is fundamentally the meaning of the title: "The Tories wish they had done better than OTL? Well be careful what you wish for!"
There will be a short finishing-off bit and then I will leave it, and perhaps come back in the future for another week of activity to cover what happens in the alternate Cameron government. Similar to what Andy has done with "Maybe the Horse..."
It's not just the Tory Right awkward squad who can screw Cameron over. He has a one seat majority which means any single issue nutter (and with 323 people you're going to have a few) can remove the governments majority. Never mind the ever present risk that you're one by-election away from minority government.
On the issue of boosting Camerons cushion I reckon he could sell a confidence and supply deal with the DUP. They're Eurosceptic, Socially Conservative and fiercely Unionist all of which will go down well with the Tory Backbenches. The only problem is that they'll demand NI be isolated from any cuts.
On the issue of boosting Camerons cushion I reckon he could sell a confidence and supply deal with the DUP. They're Eurosceptic, Socially Conservative and fiercely Unionist all of which will go down well with the Tory Backbenches. The only problem is that they'll demand NI be isolated from any cuts.
Isn't NI relatively isolated IOTL anyway? Apologies if I'm completely misinformed and there's a lot of people suffering from the cuts in NI.
I believe it is relatively isolated but that isn't the same as totally isolated.
Thande
Donor
“Well, some Tory activists did talk about how this would be their ‘Portillo moment’ in revenge, and I think that, ah, in the future we may indeed ask ‘were you still up for Balls?’” Jeremy Vine was saying awkwardly.
Ed Miliband flicked the TV off before his brother could throw the remote through the screen. “Well, the tabloid headline writers are going to love this,” he muttered.
“Bastards,” David muttered. “All the economic implications, and all they can talk about is innuendo.” He hated himself for the voice in the back of his mind that said at least it’d be one less rival in the leadership election. The Tories had focused a lot of effort on trying to unseat Ed Balls in his new seat of Morley and Outwood, taking advantage of boundary changes. Labour had funnelled as much effort as they could spare into defending it. It hadn’t worked. Just barely, Antony Calvert had taken the seat. Just part of the bigger trend which had seen much of West Yorkshire turn its back on the Labour Party.
Ed sighed. “When do you think Gordon will be on?”
“Not long,” David said. Some might have thought that Gordon would try desperately to hold on somehow, but he knew the man better than that. He had gambled for the last time.
And now the party passed to a new generation. It was time for a new Labour...a new new Labour, he thought wryly. “Any ideas for party rebrandings?” he asked Ed.
His brother managed a hollow laugh.
*
It turned out that Peter Robinson would, apparently, remain the leader of the DUP despite his embarrassing failure in Belfast East. What with those negotiations that had been leaked prior to the election, it didn’t take long to hammer out an informal agreement. Cameron had already known what form it would take: anything the Tories did in Great Britain would not apply to Northern Ireland. The province’s particularly bloated public sector would remain uncut. Attempts to revise the parliamentary boundaries on the mainland would not cross St George’s Channel. Social legislation, and probably educational reforms, would stay put as well. In exchange, the DUP would back the Tories on everything, as would the independent unionist Rodney Connor. Cameron nodded and smiled to it all and tried to make himself believe that he wasn’t making a deal with the devil...
*
“I think the voters have full confidence in David Cameron and they have shown that to us!”
“Yeeeeeeers,” Paxman said at length, “but they haven’t seen fit to give him a majority, have they?”
“Well, Jeremy,” Boris said, “I think it’s a wee bit Scylla and Charybdis for you to say that now, when I well recall you saying in that interview before the election that we had an impossibly high mountain to climb! David Cameron has gained more Tory seats in a single election since the 1930s, a remarkable, Brobdingnagian achievement, and I think he deserves our respect for it!”
Paxman closed his eyes for a moment. At least he would have less confusing Tories to interview from now on...
*
Gordon Brown’s resignation speech was easily one of the most powerful of his career. Many Labour activists drowning their sorrows in a pint complained ‘why couldn’t he have done a speech like that BEFORE the election?’
People and furniture were withdrawn from Number Ten with the cold-hearted efficiency that marked every transition of government. The UK was not the United States, with a couple of months to handle the change-over. In a matter of hours, the touch of New Labour upon the house that had once housed everyone from Oliver Cromwell to William of Orange had been reduced to a memory, just a part of the history recorded on Number Ten’s walls and fittings. The slate was wiped clean. It was time for something new.
*
I wish someone had told me that the whole ‘kissing hands’ thing was just a metaphor, Cameron thought as he took up his podium in front of Number Ten. The whole thing felt dreamlike, unreal. At least Her Majesty had seemed more put-upon than offended: apparently an awful lot of first-time PMs had made the same mistake. The Jubilee would be coming up in a couple of years, along with the Olympics: 2012 would be an eventful year. He wondered if his government would survive long enough to preside over them.
“Her Majesty the Queen has asked me to form a new government and I have accepted,” he began. “Before I talk about that new government, let me say something about the one that has just passed. Compared with a decade ago, this country is more open at home and more compassionate abroad and that is something we should all be grateful for and on behalf of the whole country I'd like to pay tribute to the outgoing prime minister for his long record of dedicated public service.” It was easy to be magnaminous when the election was over.
“I would like to thank the British people for giving the Conservative Party their support in the late election. It is true that our position could be stronger, but considering the circumstances, I think we have been given more than enough confidence to really deal with the serious problems this country faces, both in the economic sphere and outside.” He had considered mentioning the unfair parliamentary boundaries that they needed to fix, but had decided it would make him sound too much like a Lib Dem.
Cameron looked into one of the cameras. “Let me make one thing perfectly clear. I came to public service because I love this country. It is a great country and a country we should all be proud to live in. Sometimes we may dwell too much on past glories, but I say that Britain’s best days still lie ahead. Let us come together to build a society worthy of inheriting those bright days, built upon values of freedom and responsibility. Let us build a society that rewards hard work, that allows people to get on in life and make a better life for their children. Those who can, should, and those who can’t must always be protected. The frail, the elderly, the poorest must always be our responsibility to help.
“Let us therefore go ahead together to conquer that great future. Make no mistake about it, great challenges lie ahead. But today I am confident that together, we can overcome them. Together, we will now begin the great work of government, and let sunshine rule the day. Thank you.”
Ed Miliband flicked the TV off before his brother could throw the remote through the screen. “Well, the tabloid headline writers are going to love this,” he muttered.
“Bastards,” David muttered. “All the economic implications, and all they can talk about is innuendo.” He hated himself for the voice in the back of his mind that said at least it’d be one less rival in the leadership election. The Tories had focused a lot of effort on trying to unseat Ed Balls in his new seat of Morley and Outwood, taking advantage of boundary changes. Labour had funnelled as much effort as they could spare into defending it. It hadn’t worked. Just barely, Antony Calvert had taken the seat. Just part of the bigger trend which had seen much of West Yorkshire turn its back on the Labour Party.
Ed sighed. “When do you think Gordon will be on?”
“Not long,” David said. Some might have thought that Gordon would try desperately to hold on somehow, but he knew the man better than that. He had gambled for the last time.
And now the party passed to a new generation. It was time for a new Labour...a new new Labour, he thought wryly. “Any ideas for party rebrandings?” he asked Ed.
His brother managed a hollow laugh.
*
It turned out that Peter Robinson would, apparently, remain the leader of the DUP despite his embarrassing failure in Belfast East. What with those negotiations that had been leaked prior to the election, it didn’t take long to hammer out an informal agreement. Cameron had already known what form it would take: anything the Tories did in Great Britain would not apply to Northern Ireland. The province’s particularly bloated public sector would remain uncut. Attempts to revise the parliamentary boundaries on the mainland would not cross St George’s Channel. Social legislation, and probably educational reforms, would stay put as well. In exchange, the DUP would back the Tories on everything, as would the independent unionist Rodney Connor. Cameron nodded and smiled to it all and tried to make himself believe that he wasn’t making a deal with the devil...
*
“I think the voters have full confidence in David Cameron and they have shown that to us!”
“Yeeeeeeers,” Paxman said at length, “but they haven’t seen fit to give him a majority, have they?”
“Well, Jeremy,” Boris said, “I think it’s a wee bit Scylla and Charybdis for you to say that now, when I well recall you saying in that interview before the election that we had an impossibly high mountain to climb! David Cameron has gained more Tory seats in a single election since the 1930s, a remarkable, Brobdingnagian achievement, and I think he deserves our respect for it!”
Paxman closed his eyes for a moment. At least he would have less confusing Tories to interview from now on...
*
Gordon Brown’s resignation speech was easily one of the most powerful of his career. Many Labour activists drowning their sorrows in a pint complained ‘why couldn’t he have done a speech like that BEFORE the election?’
People and furniture were withdrawn from Number Ten with the cold-hearted efficiency that marked every transition of government. The UK was not the United States, with a couple of months to handle the change-over. In a matter of hours, the touch of New Labour upon the house that had once housed everyone from Oliver Cromwell to William of Orange had been reduced to a memory, just a part of the history recorded on Number Ten’s walls and fittings. The slate was wiped clean. It was time for something new.
*
I wish someone had told me that the whole ‘kissing hands’ thing was just a metaphor, Cameron thought as he took up his podium in front of Number Ten. The whole thing felt dreamlike, unreal. At least Her Majesty had seemed more put-upon than offended: apparently an awful lot of first-time PMs had made the same mistake. The Jubilee would be coming up in a couple of years, along with the Olympics: 2012 would be an eventful year. He wondered if his government would survive long enough to preside over them.
“Her Majesty the Queen has asked me to form a new government and I have accepted,” he began. “Before I talk about that new government, let me say something about the one that has just passed. Compared with a decade ago, this country is more open at home and more compassionate abroad and that is something we should all be grateful for and on behalf of the whole country I'd like to pay tribute to the outgoing prime minister for his long record of dedicated public service.” It was easy to be magnaminous when the election was over.
“I would like to thank the British people for giving the Conservative Party their support in the late election. It is true that our position could be stronger, but considering the circumstances, I think we have been given more than enough confidence to really deal with the serious problems this country faces, both in the economic sphere and outside.” He had considered mentioning the unfair parliamentary boundaries that they needed to fix, but had decided it would make him sound too much like a Lib Dem.
Cameron looked into one of the cameras. “Let me make one thing perfectly clear. I came to public service because I love this country. It is a great country and a country we should all be proud to live in. Sometimes we may dwell too much on past glories, but I say that Britain’s best days still lie ahead. Let us come together to build a society worthy of inheriting those bright days, built upon values of freedom and responsibility. Let us build a society that rewards hard work, that allows people to get on in life and make a better life for their children. Those who can, should, and those who can’t must always be protected. The frail, the elderly, the poorest must always be our responsibility to help.
“Let us therefore go ahead together to conquer that great future. Make no mistake about it, great challenges lie ahead. But today I am confident that together, we can overcome them. Together, we will now begin the great work of government, and let sunshine rule the day. Thank you.”
THE END OF PART ONE
He could have technically had Clegg in with a coalition, it'd better suit him as he could argue that it's just to make sure that the government is strong enough to "weather the storm", and the party may be more forgiving if they think that if the LibDems don't like a bill, they can just force it through anyway. Then again, they could have just as easily been more upset due to a belief in their ability to carry on as a minority backed by the DUP.
Of course, that would rely on Cameron being a lot more sneaky then he was at that stage and he would likely just go for the DUP, the frenemy you know and all (though another move would be to have another election and base it on "just one more push" while Labour are undergoing a moral crisis and the LibDems are 'proven' to be a wasted vote but that could easily backfire under the right circumstances).
Great work, can't wait to see how this all wraps up.
Of course, that would rely on Cameron being a lot more sneaky then he was at that stage and he would likely just go for the DUP, the frenemy you know and all (though another move would be to have another election and base it on "just one more push" while Labour are undergoing a moral crisis and the LibDems are 'proven' to be a wasted vote but that could easily backfire under the right circumstances).
Great work, can't wait to see how this all wraps up.
Thande
Donor
Well that's the end of this TLIAD (at least the D didn't stand for 'decade' 
) - though as I said above, I will revisit a while later and do another week of writing that will follow it up.
What did you think overall? I would appreciate feedback.
As for what will follow: well Cameron has 323 Tories, with Rodney Connor and the Democratic Unionists (great rock band) that's 9 more for a total of 332. As there are 4 Sinn Féin abstensionists, you actually need a majority of 324 not 326. So Cameron has a working majority of 16.
For now.
) - though as I said above, I will revisit a while later and do another week of writing that will follow it up.What did you think overall? I would appreciate feedback.
As for what will follow: well Cameron has 323 Tories, with Rodney Connor and the Democratic Unionists (great rock band) that's 9 more for a total of 332. As there are 4 Sinn Féin abstensionists, you actually need a majority of 324 not 326. So Cameron has a working majority of 16.
For now.
AndyC
Donor
Brilliant work, Thande.
With 323 seats, it does look more like a 64 than a 74 (it's the effective majority threshold with the Shinners staying out), and with the DUP on board for effectively confidence and supply ... or it would be without the Awkward Squad. The latter will swiftly become the bane of Cameron's life.
The possibilities for the future of this TL are huge - realignment with Orange Bookers? What will happen with UKIP? Will Clegg be defenestrated and if so, in which direction will his successors take the Lib Dems (and would that push into a realignment as well)?
With 323 seats, it does look more like a 64 than a 74 (it's the effective majority threshold with the Shinners staying out), and with the DUP on board for effectively confidence and supply ... or it would be without the Awkward Squad. The latter will swiftly become the bane of Cameron's life.
The possibilities for the future of this TL are huge - realignment with Orange Bookers? What will happen with UKIP? Will Clegg be defenestrated and if so, in which direction will his successors take the Lib Dems (and would that push into a realignment as well)?
Thande
Donor
Additional - and, I think, this is the very first BritPol timeline of "Cameron pulls it off".
We've had Clegg win, we've had Brown stay in power, we've had Coalitions with the Lib Dems, but I think this is a first.
That's actually what inspired me to do this. I was thinking "I want to do a 2010 TL, but every possibility has been exhausted by all the oth...wait a minute..."
Maybe it was too obvious for AH.com
Thanks for your comments too, your work was obviously a major inspiration for me.
oh well
Read the entire series, mildly disappointed for two main reasons:
1. I'm not familiar with British politics, and admittedly not very interested in them either, so most of this was lost on me.
2. From the opening entries about Big Ben I kept expecting the clock tower to fall down or explode or something.
Very well written, I'm just not the right audience.
Read the entire series, mildly disappointed for two main reasons:
1. I'm not familiar with British politics, and admittedly not very interested in them either, so most of this was lost on me.
2. From the opening entries about Big Ben I kept expecting the clock tower to fall down or explode or something.
Very well written, I'm just not the right audience.
Well that's the end of this TLIAD (at least the D didn't stand for 'decade'
What did you think overall? I would appreciate feedback.
As for what will follow: well Cameron has 323 Tories, with Rodney Connor and the Democratic Unionists (great rock band) that's 9 more for a total of 332. As there are 4 Sinn Féin abstensionists, you actually need a majority of 324 not 326. So Cameron has a working majority of 16.
For now.
I thought it was a good take on how the election might have gone without the debates. Seemigly plausible in almost every respect. I do make that point about Sinn Fein to anybody who will listen every general election. They never seem to remember though and are always confused when I say that 326 is not the actual line for a majority.
It does seem to me that the DUP deal has created a new version of the West Lothian question since the DUP can vote for cuts secure in the knowledge that they will not effect Northern Ireland. The Tory response to the flag protests should be interesting if butterflies don't prevent them.
I really do look forward to another part if and when you decide to write it.
Alex Richards
Donor
Very good indeed. I particularly liked the bit about Rodney Connor, having spotted that myself and incorporated it into some of the stuff I've done in Imperium Resurgam.
Really nicely done. I'm looking forward to seeing how the Minority Government unfolds (I wonder just what epithet the tabloids will attach to them now?), and just how quickly the Lib Dems fall apart and start saying "if only we'd managed to get into bed with the Tories..."