TLC3: Brothers In Arms

Jasen and Maverick -- Thanks for the comments.

Jasen, I do agree that a bigger-picture view of the action might well advance the action better. I sat down attempting to deliver just that...and produced this. I think it is different: there's a fair bit of action, for one.

And Maverick, there is a war, just not the one you were hoping for...yet.

Overall, I've been doing a fair bit of research on Spain and Spanish America and didn't want to leave out bits that I've discovered along the way. Hopefully, there's enough faulty reasoning that our Spanish board-mates will be outraged enough to comment and thus correct my gross inaccuracy.


Additionally, I've begun to wade into the treacherous waters of European diplomacy, by mucking about with the Congresses. Any thoughts on potential effects thereof is most welcome!

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Part IIIa: To Redress the Balance of the Old

From Imperial Struggle, National Renewal: Spain in the 19th Century
By Lloyd Donaldson, Yale University Press, 1988.

Chapter 3: The Quasi-Revolution, 1820-1823

The Cadiz Mutiny

Since he had returned to the throne after the withdrawal of French troops in 1814, Ferdinand VII had been anything but “the desired one.” At the urging of supporters among the nobility and the Church, Ferdinand had gone back on his promise to abide by the Constitution of 1812, ushering in a period of absolutism. Ferdinand restored the Inquisition. He favored a camarilla of friends, which undermined his official ministers, whom he nevertheless changed frequently. The reestablishment of central administration (one more centralized than previous Bourbon governments) produced resentment among even the Iberian provinces who had enjoyed the tremendous amount of home rule granted them by the Constitution. The mounting economic crises added to the growing list of failures….

…Opposition to Ferdinand’s rule coalesced in clandestine organizations. Although tertulias had long been occasions for political discussion, the first secret societies appeared in Cadiz in the early days of Constitutional rule. Spanish liberals and army officers formed clandestine groups, often called sociedades patrióticas. Masonic lodges, established initially by the French but controlled by Spanish officers and liberals after 1814, became covert centers of opposition. Ironically, though, all such groups pale by comparison to budding Sociedad Thrasybulo then being formed by the independentist forces in South America….

…Throughout the late 1810s there were several revolts against Ferdinand’s rule: that of Javier Mina in 1814, that of Juan Diaz Porlier in La Coruña in 1815, and many others. Perhaps the most audacious was the 1818 conspiracy known as The Great Masonic Plot—the subject of epic 1954 Barcelona-wood film Padres y Patria—which sought to restore Carlos IV as a constitutional monarch.

Opposition to the war in the Americas provided the liberals with a new avenue by which to forward their cause. In 1819, they exploited discontent in the large expeditionary army encamped in Andalucía awaiting transport to the New World. Some officers were receptive, but even the most disposed—Colonels Juan O’Donojú and Antonio Quiroga—were too cautious to make the first move. Morillo’s victories in New Granada and Venezuela, however, began to change matters: while Spain lacked the ships to carry the whole army to America—a promise of Russian ships had meant that the expedition had grand hopes to make for Buenos Aires—the defeat of Bolivar provided an opening to the Spanish. A number of battalions were shipped to Morillo over the course of the late autumn of 1819 to provide him reinforcements. [1] This proved key in the efforts to win over a cadre of officers to support the Cause. On January 1, 1820, O’Donojú and Quiroga, along with a handful of dedicated officers, led the all the army regiments around Cadiz to raise the banner of the Constitution.

Unopposed by government troops, the Ejército de la constitución began a triumphant march through southern Spain, slowly making its way toward Madrid. Each city through which the army passed greeted the troops as liberators and set about holding elections to effect home rule (or rather the army only passed through cities which it was certain of bloodlessly controlling). [2] Some cities, such as Zaragoza and Barcelona, revolted of their own accord.

Liberales, Moderados, and Exaltados

The distinctive difference in the political make-up of the Quasi-Revolution, as compared to the movement behind the Cadiz Cortes in 1808, was the emergence of a number of different groups agitating for change. There were the liberals, mostly middle class and those notables who had supported the previous regime under the Constitution. And then there were also those moderates who, while not necessarily advancing an ideological purpose, had grown tired of the despotic nature of Ferdinand’s regime and wanted a return to stable, effective government, whatever its nature. However, there were also a sizable group of a more revolutionary character that sought to advance a more radical agenda.…

…In late February, a group of these radical exaltados, made public threats in Madrid itself. Liberals were in the process of organizing public demonstrations in the hope of provoking Ferdinand to accept the restoration of the Constitution peaceably. Such plans would be but a sideshow to those enacted on March 1 by an extremist group. They attacked a carriage, bearing the Royal Arms, believing it to carry Infante Carlos, brother of Ferdinand VII. In actuality, the carriage held Infanta Maria Francisca, Carlos’ wife, and their two year old son, also named Carlos. Maria was killed: some reactionary sources suggest it to have been intentional, but her death appears to have been an accident, the result of the carriage having been overturned in the fray. [3]

The fate of the young Count of Montemolin is indicative, though, of the confused nature of even the radicalism of the Quasi-Revolution. In Jacobin Paris, such a young noble would surely have been killed had he fallen into the hands of a radical mob. Not so in Liberal Spain. The same day, a basket bearing the young prince was delivered by a priest to the royal palace. The priest is said to have been given the young boy by the leader of the mob himself.

The incident had a profound effect on both Ferdinand and Carlos. He fled the city for the north even as the Constitutional Army entered the capital, believing his brother to be a prisoner of revolutionaries and his son to have been slaughtered along with his wife. Ferdinand soon proved Carlos right on at least one of the charges: he refused to leave the palace, even to meet with the leaders of the Army. Hence, when O’Donojú called for new elections, he did so in the name of the king. To many Spaniards, it seemed reminiscent of the Junta of 1808, acting in the name of an absentee King. [4] Nevertheless, had Ferdinand consented to cooperate the leaders of the revolt would surely have accepted the veneer of legitimacy he offered.

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From HIST 208: History of Modern Mexico, 1600-2000
Lectures by Prof. Ian McCormick, University of Texas at Houston

“…The outbreak of the Quasi-Revolution left the Viceroyalty of New Spain in a tenuous position. Militarily, the situation for the Royalists seemed secure: the independentist army of Vincent Guerrero was confined to marginal regions, like its many predecessors. However, the news of the restoration of the Constitution brought political turmoil: thousands of pamphlets were issued in support of the Constitution. While orders issuing from the alleged Ministers in Madrid commanded Viceroy Juan Ruiz de Apodaca to institute elections, Ruiz hesitated to implement them, without word from the King himself. This of course led to outbreaks of political violence as journalistic debates began to translate into street protest.

While the Provisional Government in Madrid appeared to be taking steps to grant New Spain more autonomy, the elite groups in Mexico itself wanted nothing to do with the liberal precepts of the Constitution of 1812. Its widespread suffrage seemed a recipe for just the kind of political discord that now engulfed the region. Its lack of any guarantee of the fueros—the privileges of the Church, the military, and increasingly the nobility—was completely unacceptable…

…Thus convinced that continued connection to Spain was only a recipe for social warfare, the national elite began to discuss ways to ensure an orderly government. To do so, they made use of the same sorts of societies and meetings used by Liberals in the lead up to the turmoil in Spain. One such meeting was the Mexico City salon of María Ignacia Rodríguez de Velasco; it was this group that convinced the ruthless and efficient Colonel Augustín de Iturbide, who had just been tasked with eliminating Guerrero’s troops, to act on their behalf. Thus was the fateful chain of events that would lead to a meeting in Chilpancingo set in motion. [5]

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From Imperial Struggle, National Renewal: Spain in the 19th Century
By Lloyd Donaldson, Yale University Press, 1988.

The Sons of Saint Louis

Carlos immediately set about raising an army. A strong believer in the divine right of kings, he like the Liberals sought only to reclaim the government of Spain in the name of Ferdinand VII. While Carlos’ Ejército del rey (army of the King) enjoyed the support of the provincial nobility and the clergy, he could not muster sufficient forces to assault a Liberal stronghold. And the Liberal armies would not leave the cities: O’Donojú and Reigo could not afford to test their revolution and preferred to ignore Carlos’ force in the hopes that they would melt away as the legitimacy of the regime was made manifest.

This status quo changed after the intervention of the Bourbon regime in Paris in mid 1821, following the Carbonari revolt in the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies and the subsequent invasion of Naples by the forces of the “Holy Alliance” after the Congress of Troppau. Under a supposed diplomatic license and under pressure from ultras in his own country, Louis XVIII organized “volunteer” brigades to serve under the command of “Don Carlos, Regent of Spain.” These brigades were styled “the sons of Saint Louis” and the government of France kept up the legal fiction that these were groups of private, concerned citizens. The protests of Great Britain at this action were one of the pretexts for the meeting of the Congress of Verona in 1822….

…With theses forces, Carlos was able to win the battle of Zaragoza and enter that previously Liberal city in May 1822….

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From A Historical Dictionary of Europe
By James Liddell, Macmillan-Spencer, 1956.

“Troppau, Congress of” One of a series of diplomatic meetings that together compromise the Concert of Europe (see EUROPE, CONCERT OF) inaugurated by the Congress of Vienna in 1815(see VIENNA, CONGRESS OF). Held in late 1820 in response to the revolt in the Two Sicilies and the outbreak of the Quasi-Revolution in Spain. France and Britain sent observers only, as Metternich’s intention to use the Congress as an excuse to invade Naples and snuff out any hint of Revolution in Austria’s sphere of influence was plain from the start. The agreement reached by Metternich and Tsar Alexander permitted Austrian, Prussian, and Russian troops to invade the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies whose king had been forced to swear an oath to a Constitution modeled on that of Spain’s. Nevertheless, the “Protocol of Troppau” which held that European states should be protected by international action against internal changes brought about by force gave France the pretext to begin sending aid to Legitimist forces under Prince Carlos….[6]

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From Imperial Struggle, National Renewal: Spain in the 19th Century
By Lloyd Donaldson, Yale University Press, 1988.

Ferdinand and the Declaration of Right

The personality of Ferdinand VII is a study in contradictions: at time he is a craven, cowardly figure; at times he is cruel and capricious; at times he is bold, daring, even audacious. In truth, there was often a consistent motive for his actions: his own personal advancement, prestige, and power. Hence, when it was necessary to gain the affection of liberal reformers to regain his throne in 1814, he promised to abide by their principles. Just so, he abandoned those principles when it became apparent that he could win the loyalty of the Church and conservatives.

After the Quasi-Revolution had progressed and his brother had become the rallying cry for the conservatives, however, Ferdinand needed new supporters. Indeed, many conservatives began openly to whisper of forcing the abdication of Ferdinand once the Liberals were crushed, and installing the young, dashing Carlos on the throne. In the context of Ferdinand’s many changes in political orientation, his reaction to this new circumstance should appear unsurprising, but it nevertheless determined the outcome of the Quasi-Revolution.

Over the course of 1821, the divide between the liberals and radicals had grown more manifest. Perhaps the only thing to which the two sides could agree was to quash an attempt by the delegates from the Americas to forward a settlement which would satisfy their demands for greater autonomy and equality. And that agreement appeared in jeopardy in 1822 as the liberals began to look to the Americans for support against the radicals, who argued that the success of Carlos’ “reactionary” forces stemmed from inadequate reforms. Meanwhile, moderates began to look to Carlos’ forces with some longing: one observer hoped they would deliver Spain from the grips of “Masons, Carbonari, and heretics.”

Thus, Ferdinand summoned the leaders of the Provisional Government to Auranjuez with a proposal. He would commit himself to the Constitution of 1812, if the Liberals would agree to a Declaration of Right, listing certain exclusions to that document….Essentially, the Declaration inserted into the Constitution of 1812 some protection for the Church and for the nobility, while maintaining the political settlement. These protections did not amount to anything like the former fueros maintained by the Bourbon court, but simply gave the Church and the nobles pride of place in the new regime. The Declaration thus offered the Liberals the chance to maintain the economic and political reforms they cherished, with a chance for social stability. They agreed. Ferdinand dismissed the most extreme of the exaltados and confirmed Liberal ministers in their place.

…When Carlos heard that of Ferdinand’s public acceptance of the Constitution and of the Declaration, he found his position fundamentally altered. He was now leading a rebellion, not a Reconquista. But his troops and backers would not be discouraged; they demanded action. Ferdinand’s consent, they said, was simply an indication of the desperation of his imprisonment….

…Ferdinand’s insistence on sending an army to meet the forces led by his brother seems to betoken something of his personal desires. Perhaps the thought of his brother usurping his throne evoked a constancy of purpose that simply ruling his country had not. In any case, the decision to seek a final confrontation between the Liberals and Reactionary forces would prove fateful….

The Act of Settlement

...It goes without saying that Carlos’ forces were demoralized when they confronted the Liberal Army on the plain near the city of Sigüenza: the Ejército del rey was opposing a force, personally attended by King Ferdinand himself. Hardly what Carlos’ initial supporters had bargained for. Carlos himself attempt to order his army to lay down their arms and surrender, but the Sons of Saint Louis, who by now formed the majority of his force, would hear nothing of it. Carlos was found chained to his tent after the Liberal forces routed the last vestiges of opposition….

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Notes:

[1] This is of course where the POD begins to introduce major changes in Spain. OTL Morillo kept asking for more troops. The beginning of the Liberal Trenio in 1820 meant that Ferdinand didn’t send anything, except orders to negotiate a truce with Bolivar—which Bolivar later broke. TTL Morillo’s victories convince Ferdinand to send more troops sooner. Not perhaps the most rational moves—to send troops after they are most need to an area already pacified—but Ferdinand is not exactly a statesman par excellence. On the other hand, it will give Morillo much needed manpower to put toward his pacification efforts.

[2] This is the primary result of the differing dispositions of troops due to the reinforcements sent to Morillo. The most loyal troops have been sent to America, leaving all the garrisons in Anadalucia disposed to join the Cadiz Mutiny. OTL Major Rafael Riego led the mutiny because O’Donojú and Quiroga were too cautious (or so say my paltry sources). TTL O’Donojú and Quiroga take the plunge because their troops are not keen on the idea of being shipped to the war. Additionally, the army was soon opposed by government troops. The main effect of the Mutiny was to set off a cascade of declarations from various provinces in support to the Constitution of 1812. TTL the army is able to move as one and thus the dynamics of the protests in favor of the Constitution will also change. It should also be noted that OTL it was with Juan O’Donojú that Augustín de Iturbide negotiated the Treaty of Córdoba, by which Mexico gained its independence from Spain under the terms of the Plan of Iguala.

[3] According to my scant sources, Carlos was threatened by radicals during the Liberal Trenio OTL. I don’t think this incident too out of place, plus it’s a key part of my plans for TTL’s version of the Liberal Trenio.

[4] OTL Ferdinand took on oath to support the Constitution on March 7. TTL he refuses so the conspirators keep him “sequestered while he mourns the death of his sister in law” and rule in his name. They are between a rock and a hard place though because they cannot win the support of the entire country without the King’s word and they risk international intervention if they seem to be committing an outright coup.

[5] OTL elections were held under the Constitution, which led to a bit too much liberality in the eyes of the elite. TTL things aren’t that clear so the elections aren’t held…which actually leads to the kind of violence the elites fear. Chilpancingo is a town near Iguala, since butterflies will mean the meeting between Iturbide and Guerrero take place at a slightly different place.

[6] OTL France waited until the Congress of Verona gave them official license to act. TTL they act a bit sooner, because the Quasi-Revolution appears revolutionary at the outset. They are also acting to counter-balance Metternich’s move into Naples. This will have larger impact on the Congress of Verona two years later.
 
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maverick

Banned
Great update...love the action...and the detail...

It is also interest how it diverges from reality and from mine own Timeline, in which the Revolution was slightly more popular and the French Invasion of 1823 slightly more complicated for the Duke of Angouleme...whereas ITTL we have an actual civil war for the Trienio Liberal...
 
Great update...love the action...and the detail...

A comment! Oh joy! You made my day. Glad to know you liked it. I had to chose between writing some very high level (i.e. Date: X happens) and something very detailed. I like details too much to do otherwise. How far I get for contest, I'm not sure of. But I have interesting plans in mind so maybe I'll keep things going regardless.

It is also interest how it diverges from reality and from mine own Timeline, in which the Revolution was slightly more popular and the French Invasion of 1823 slightly more complicated for the Duke of Angouleme...whereas ITTL we have an actual civil war for the Trienio Liberal...
Yes, I like that aspect. It started from the beginning: you chose to have Bolivar die as a result / part of the failure at Boyaca and I chose the opposite. Now, I think I actually consciously made that choice, because you had posted before me.

This divergence is probably a bit more subtle. I'd say the initial revolt in 1820 is more popular, but among the officers in Cadiz, meaning it's less of a spontaneous uprising because of mass protests as it was TTL and has more of a coherent organization. Accordingly, it also produces a bit too much exuberance and thus a more coherent opposition by succeeding too quickly. Hence, Infanta Maria Francisca had to die. And, of course, I have plans for Don Carlos, as does Ferdinand at this point in time -- I keep discovering all these pairs of brothers/rivals and finding ways to severely alter their relationship: hence the Brothers in Arms aren't just Bolivar and San Martin, it's also Ferdinand and Carlos being Brothers at arms, i.e. against each other. My earlier mention of "the Eagle and the Raven" is probably the most radical such change I've concocted yet, though it's still some years away.

Now of course I have to see just what should happen in Peru and Argentina. My inclination ironically will probably initally look to be your TL's Mirror Universe...but with a twist that I've been laying the groundwork for sometime which should significantly ameliorate that tendency. :D
 
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A well written story Nico! I like the general direction in which you're going. I also appreciate your notes.

Now of course I have to see just what should happen in Peru and Argentina. My inclination ironically will probably initally look to be your TL's Mirror Universe...but with a twist that I've been laying the groundwork for sometime which should significantly ameliorate that tendency. :D

Might I suggest that Pedro remain in Brazil, rule Brazil alone and build a stable and stronger Bazilian empire? Miguel would also need moderate his views a bit in order to become king of Portugal peacefully I suppose.
 
A well written story Nico! I like the general direction in which you're going. I also appreciate your notes.

Thanks! As a long-time fan of CoHE, that means a lot.

Might I suggest that Pedro remain in Brazil, rule Brazil alone and build a stable and stronger Bazilian empire? Miguel would also need moderate his views a bit in order to become king of Portugal peacefully I suppose.

Certainly a good possibility. I can say with certainty that the New World will see at least one monarchy in the not too distant future.
 
Might I suggest that Pedro remain in Brazil, rule Brazil alone and build a stable and stronger Bazilian empire? Miguel would also need moderate his views a bit in order to become king of Portugal peacefully I suppose.

You would just need to make Miguel accepting to be married to his niece (and Pedro's daughter) Maria. IOTL he wanted to be made an absolute king, while Maria would be a constitutional queen. Make him start an absolutist coup on behalf of Maria, who would be an absolute queen then, and Pedro would never declare war against his brother. Miguel would be co-king instead of the sole ruler, but he would probably dictate Maria's policies.
 

maverick

Banned
Hey! don't give him ideas! that'll make my job of finding my own divergences in Portugal the more difficult:p

On another note:

y Entry: Brothers in Arms -- the Spanish Quasi-Revolution of 1820-1823! Updated as of 10/5/2009.

Its not fair that you can update in the future:p

Keep up with the good work...

I might have problems updating my own TL after this weekend, which is a three day weekend and might get two updates in any case...
 
Downloaded this yesterday and read this last night

Very interesting !

One thing that comes to mind (tho my own San Martin research is around 16 months ago and degraded in my mind) is. . .

. . . If there is no force coming from the North into Peru, then doesn't that leave the Spanish Viceroy in a position to concentrate all of his force against those coming up from the South ?

I remember the geography is...difficult ! A coastal plain, then mountains with roads through them far inland...

Do the Spanish have a fleet at Callao ? Or has events in Spain prevented it from being sent there ? Are there any Spanish naval units at Manila that could be sent there ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Look at all the comments! Nothing so certain to encourage an update this weekend.

You would just need to make Miguel accepting to be married to his niece (and Pedro's daughter) Maria. IOTL he wanted to be made an absolute king, while Maria would be a constitutional queen. Make him start an absolutist coup on behalf of Maria, who would be an absolute queen then, and Pedro would never declare war against his brother. Miguel would be co-king instead of the sole ruler, but he would probably dictate Maria's policies.

My read at the moment is that Miguel is too power-loving to tolerate sharing power.

It does seem to me though that a primary question is just when Joao VI dies (there doesn't look to be much to change about the timing of Pedro's declaration of Brazilian independence). The Wiki article mentions that he may have been poisoned. Any body have info on that either way?

Additionally, the constitution of the Empire of Brazil may be a bit different, since while the timing of the independence may change, some factors surrounding it very well might. And of course the war with the United Provinces will be very interesting. :D

Hey! don't give him ideas! that'll make my job of finding my own divergences in Portugal the more difficult:p

Worry not, my friend. I'm certain you'll have the upper hand. Until we get to Texas. :cool:

Its not fair that you can update in the future:p
Ah, yes, minor typo. Consider it escapism from the current news cycle. And of course unconscious evidence that I intend to continue the TL.

I might have problems updating my own TL after this weekend, which is a three day weekend and might get two updates in any case...
Look forward to them. And to the breathing room to advance my own work! Bwahah, let the advertising wars begin!

I can't...I already have a plan for Portugal...sort of :p

I look forward to our continued double divergence both from OTL and each other. At this rate though we're liable to be so cunning we'll converge unknowingly. :p

Downloaded this yesterday and read this last night

Very interesting !

Thanks!

One thing that comes to mind (tho my own San Martin research is around 16 months ago and degraded in my mind) is. . .

. . . If there is no force coming from the North into Peru, then doesn't that leave the Spanish Viceroy in a position to concentrate all of his force against those coming up from the South ?
Oh yes, the war in Peru will be very hard. For one, Bolivar will appear way more revolutionary to the elite Peruvians. For another, the Viceroy has ample time to concentrate his defenses. I will note, that OTL the Spanish Liberal Trenio played a not insignificant role in encouraging internal discord amongst the Peruvians. Certainly TTL's Quasi-Revolution will play a role as well.

On the other hand, though, OTL Bolivar didn't start advancing into Peru until 1822-23. It was just that by having won in New Granada, he presented a strategic flank to the Peruvian Royalists. TTL Morillo is still in New Granada so that pressure is ameliorated. It is possible that it didn't play too big of a role, though, given the geographic impediments.

I remember the geography is...difficult ! A coastal plain, then mountains with roads through them far inland...
Yes, the geography is very difficult. It can of course be an ally for Bolivar and San Martin since they can take refuge a bit more easily. Even more difficult will be the temperment of the people: Bolivar in his writings thinks Peru on of the most conservative places in Spanish America since the elite subsit off of forced/slave labor. They will not like any kind of uprising since any threat to the status quo betokens social warfare. Bolivar's reputation for War to the Death may work against him.

Yes, it will be hard, if only Bolivar and San Martin had a new weapon / tactic they could use to win hearts and minds...:rolleyes:

Do the Spanish have a fleet at Callao ? Or has events in Spain prevented it from being sent there ? Are there any Spanish naval units at Manila that could be sent there ?
Well, I think Lord Cochrane will be up to some definite tricks. OTL he cut out the primary vessels of the fleet in Peru and that left the Patriots/Indepentists with the upper hand.
 
My read at the moment is that Miguel is too power-loving to tolerate sharing power.

True, but the amount of power he would have would be certainly much bigger than the one of a child-queen. If he had been a bit wiser IOTL probably he could have kept the throne. However, I understand that your POD can't make him less stupid.;)

It does seem to me though that a primary question is just when Joao VI dies (there doesn't look to be much to change about the timing of Pedro's declaration of Brazilian independence). The Wiki article mentions that he may have been poisoned. Any body have info on that either way?

Apparently he was poisoned indeed. In 2000 was discovered that his body had 800 milligrams of arsenic. As he weighted 80 kilos, he had 10 milligrams of arsenic per kilo, the sufficient to kill two people. Of course, he can't know if it was accidental ingestion or poisoning.

Additionally, the constitution of the Empire of Brazil may be a bit different, since while the timing of the independence may change, some factors surrounding it very well might. And of course the war with the United Provinces will be very interesting.

I'll be looking forward the new events in Brazil.;)
 
I like the idea of Having Pedro and all his children remaining in Brazil and giving Portugal to Miguel.; Let him be as wise/foolish, autocratic/moderate as he wishes (or as you wish him to be) and marry whomever he wants to. I'm looking forward to seeing how you work it all out.
 

maverick

Banned
Worry not, my friend. I'm certain you'll have the upper hand. Until we get to Texas

Little did he know that I had my own schemes regarding Texas;) and California and Tennessee, but that's for later...

I look forward to our continued double divergence both from OTL and each other. At this rate though we're liable to be so cunning we'll converge unknowingly. :p

Me too...I think convergence is one of the risks of this sort of contests...

Apparently he was poisoned indeed. In 2000 was discovered that his body had 800 milligrams of arsenic. As he weighted 80 kilos, he had 10 milligrams of arsenic per kilo, the sufficient to kill two people. Of course, he can't know if it was accidental ingestion or poisoning.

Interesting to know...

and of course the war with the United Provinces will be very interesting.

You mean we could actually lose a battle?;) we'll, we have to somehow compensate the constant Argetine-wanks I always write:p


I do however wonder how long will it take San Martin and Bolivar to liberate Peru, if they ever do...

No army is coming through Ecuador, no popular uprising is likely and there sure as hell won't be any help coming from Buenos Aires...

IOTL, Viceroy Jose de La Serna had 23,000 men distributed throughout Peru and IOTL Bolivia, and it took four years for the liberators to get to Ayacucho and finally end the war in 1824...

This is going to take a while...
 

maverick

Banned
You're not just going to let me win by default, right?

Come one! you can't let the foreigner beat you in your own contest!:p
 
You're not just going to let me win by default, right?

Come one! you can't let the foreigner beat you in your own contest!:p

At the moment, I'm busy slugging matters out in the mountains of Peru...or at least that's where the TL is. RL has prevented updates the past two weekends, first due to work and second due to illness. I've already got the campaign in Peru started. Plus, I fully intend to stick with this project whenever the TLC3 ends: I've become quite intrigued by it. Plus it's good practice for some more grandiose schemes I've been mulling over.

The butterflies are proving very interesting. :D

One question, when did Spain officially recognize the independence of her former colonies OTL?
 
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maverick

Banned
At the moment, I'm busy slugging matters out in the mountains of Peru...or at least that's where the TL is. RL has prevented updates the past two weekends, first due to work and second due to illness. I've already got the campaign in Peru started.

Good luck, looking forward for it...

The butterflies are proving very interesting. :D

Oh, noes! butterflies! I must counter with Bats!:p

J/K, but still, check for the seemingly crazy stuff that will take place after the 1830s in my TL...

One question, when did Spain officially recognize the independence of her former colonies OTL?

It depends...I think they did not recognize the independence of Peru after the Guerra Hispano-Sudamericana of 1865-1871...officially recognizing Peru in 1883!

For Venezuela it was 1845, for Argentina it was 1864, when relations were normalized under Mitre, although of course the British and americans recognized most independences inthe 1820s...mostly between 1822 and 1826 IIRC

And of course, There were attempts to take Mexico back as late as 1829...
 
This post is fairly detailed, only covering about 9 months. However, I've decided to give the campaign for Peru a fair bit of time. As previous comments have noted, there a number of factors that make even OTL's invasion difficult. However, there are a similar number of factors that helped the invasion as well. Considering such a campaign in the circumstances of TTL is thus crucial to determining the future of Latin America. Nonetheless, I think it has enough action to compensate. I do intend another update this weekend, but upon realising just how much I had so far (mostly by the number of notes) I figured I'd go ahead and post.

So, consider this a teaser. :D


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Part IIIb: To Redress the Balance of the Old

From In Search of a Glorious Cause: Lord Cochrane and the Wars of Liberation
By J. Aubrey, K.B. Oxford University Press, 1958.

Once the Valpariso Conference had concluded, with the so-called “Protective Association” with its Council of War established as the governing body for the United Liberation Army, the Liberators had to address the very real question of tactics and strategy, rather than the ethereal plain of their own ideals. Cochrane as ever pushed an aggressive strategy, motivated as much by his own sense of moral fibre as by his sense of events on the ground. [1]…Nevertheless, unquestioned command of the seas was necessary to the proposed invasion.

Cochrane had been compelled to leave off his planned assault on the fort at Valdivia in January upon receiving word from San Martin of the need to transport Bolivar. Now, while San Martin busied himself with yet more “necessary preparations,” Cochrane convinced the Generalissimo of the need to take the fort. Thus in April 1820 he set off, with the 64-gun O’Higgins, the frigates Lauturo and Chacabuco, the brig Intrepido and the schooner Montezuma. Most importantly, he brought with him a detachment of 500 troops under General Bolivar, who was restless waiting in Valpariso. [2] The voyage proved to be the beginning of a most remarkable collaboration between the redoubtable Scottish Admiral and the Venezuelan aristocrat, turned South American Liberator…

The results of the confrontation were astounding. Using the element of surprise and by attacking overland rather than forcing the harbor, Cochrane and Bolivar defeated some 1,500 men with less than half that number. They seized 10,000 cannon balls, 170,000 cartridges, 128 pieces of artillery, 50 tons of gunpowder, and two ships—one of them the frigate Venganza. And indeed neither could have succeeded without the other: without Bolivar’s troops, Cochrane would not have had the men to man O’Higgins against Venganza and the entire plan would have failed. [3] And after this accomplishment, they landed Major William Miller on the island of Chiloé, which he took after a brief skirmish. [4] All of Chile was now in Patriot hands. It is little wonder then that upon their return to Valparaiso, Bernardo O’Higgins exclaimed “You have liberated my Gibraltar.” With control of Valdivia, the Patriots could begin to consolidate their control over the Pacific coast of South America.

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From Liberators, Protectors, and Pacifiers: South American Revolutions
by Prof. C. Hull, Vanderbilt University. 1938.

On September 12, 1820, Cochrane’s fleet enhanced by the addition of the Venganza, rechristened the Colombo, set sail for Peru. Two weeks later, Bolivar and his force of 5,000 men landed at Pisco (1,159 miles north of Valparaiso and 147 miles south of Lima) and quickly took control of the surrounding area. Bolivar proclaimed, “the greatest act in the greatest drama in the greatest triumph of liberty yet known in this world now begins.” [5]

Bolivar’s hyperbole—trite in hindsight—was not without justification. Arrayed against the Patriot force were some 23,000 men throughout the Viceroyalty, some 8,000 of which defended Lima and its port of Callao. The creole elites of Peru, who ruled over vast numbers of Indian laborers, were among the most hidebound of the New World; they feared that any hint of political upheaval would instantly usher in social chaos. The uprisings of Tupac Amaru in the 1780s and done much to engender a firm respect for the status quo in the mind of the Limeños, a group which Bolivar himself had identified as the most naturally conservative and royalist on the continent...And yet, Bolivar and San Martin both believed that the enactment of social reform and the protection of the political rights of the lower classes would ensure them of a wide range of support.

One of Bolivar’s first acts was to lead an expedition of 2,000 men northwards, leaving Sucre in command of Pisco. He intended in part to raid for supplies, but also to probe the forces of the Viceroy, the Marqués de la Pezuela. Before being met and forced to retreat by the counter-march of then General de la Serna’s army, Bolivar liberated nearly 2,000 slaves, all of whom “volunteered” to join a new “Freedman’s Battalion” of the United Liberation Army. When he arrived in Lima, de la Serna was hailed for his victory by the ruling classes, even though nearly 1,000 men of his detachment of 4,000 had deserted in the course of his vigorous maneuvers, many simply because they were frustrated never to have actually met Bolivar’s Army in battle. Bolivar returned to Pisco, with his forces increased by twice that number. A battle of attrition and ideals had begun. [6]

Enthused by the results of his initial forays, Bolivar detached a force of 2,000 men under Sucre and sent them with Cochrane’s force to Huacho (71 miles north of Lima). By October 20, Sucre had taken the city and Cochrane had two bases from which to menace the Spanish fleet at Callao. [7] While the accounts of the prior century have focused on Bolivar’s flair for the dramatic, these initial forays demonstrate his remarkable cooperation with Admiral Cochrane and both men’s effective use of their naval power to afford them freedom of movement even while outnumbered by the Royalist forces.

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From In Search of a Glorious Cause: Lord Cochrane and the Wars of Liberation
By J. Aubrey, K.B. Oxford University Press, 1958.

Given the failure of Bolivar’s initial foray against Royalist forces in Peru, he and Cochrane were left to reconsider how best to attack Spanish power in the viceroyalty. While Cochrane favored an attempt to attack Lima directly, Bolivar proposed a different tactic, one whose audacity and intent appealed to Cochrane even more…[8]

On the night of October 25, Cochrane and Bolivar stormed into the harbor of Callao, with every ship in the Patriot’s fleet. With 650 marines, Bolivar surprised the garrison of one of the harbor’s forts, setting its power vault to explode just as Cochrane’s forces boarded the Esmeralda and the Prueba. The former had been the pride of the Spanish navy in the Pacific, at 44 guns the strongest ship on the Pacific coast of the Americas.

Contemporary accounts bear repeating:
It was like a march of ghosts through the night shadows…Had it not been for terrible and bloody image presented it would have had a poetic beauty. The Spanish…awoke startled and with the innate bravery of their race, which had made them so successful in the New World, hurried to defend their vessel. The patriots’ daring, which for a moment paralysed the royalists, was comparable to the bravery of those splendid leaders born to fight and knowing no fear. The deck was too narrow for so many heroes. The night needed the midday sun to light up such prowess. Yet for those brave ones who fell shouting ‘Viva España’, and hurtling abuse at the ‘pirates’, it was in vain. The main tops were full of Admiral’s sailors who, from their height, were able to shoot straight at their victims while their swords destroyed the brave Spaniards.

Under the confusion caused by Bolivar’s raid, Cochrane managed to capture to vast majority of the Spanish squadron. It was a testament to the resolve of the Royalists that the city itself did not capitulate that very evening. As the Patriot fleet sailed out of range of the remaining batteries, the cannon of a visiting US naval vessel, USS Macedonian, burst out with a barrage of their own: a 21 gun salute to commend the Liberators’ exploits. Not to be out done though nonetheless mindful of the diplomatic situation, the HMS Hyperion joined in the commendation by sending aloft three rocket flares. [9]

The significance of Esmeralda’s capture, following the loss of stronghold of Valdivia, was incalculable. Just as San Martin’s crossing of the Andes was the key to consolidation of Argentinean and Chilean independence, so Cochrane and Bolivar’s mastery of the Pacific Coast was the turning-point in the destruction of Peru. [10] As Francisco Encina, Chile’s great historian said:

This attack had not the slightest possibility of success in rational terms, but what filled the most courageous sailor with dread was a stimulant to Cochrane. So too, where most commanders saw dire risk, Bolivar saw the opportunity to deliver a decisive blow. We often said that the impossible attracted both men with a certain fascination…Both men’s careers would certainly have lasted only a short time without the trait that constituted the essence of their shared genius: an incredible resourcefulness in the face of the unexpected and the catastrophic. [11]

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From Liberators, Protectors, and Pacifiers: South American Revolutions
by Prof. C. Hull, Vanderbilt University. 1938.

Lima, surrounded by the inhospitable Atacama desert, was supplied from the sea via Callao. Bolivar and Cochrane’s strategy was thus deftly rested not on defeating the Royalist armies, but on controlling the access into and out of the country. Most of the Marqués de la Pezuela’s forces were concentrated in the high mountains and commanded an overwhelming advantage of numbers. Bolivar and Cochrane’s combination of their forces enabled them to blockade the meager remnants of the Spanish fleet: food became increasingly scarce in Lima.

The Royalist forces in Peru were mostly Peruvian in origin. Faced with the sheer force of Bolivar’s initial invasion, they began to desert their posts. About 200 of the crack Numancia Battalion deserted to the Chileans after the raid on Callao. And Sucre operating north of Pisco won a minor skirmish near Cerro de Pasco, taking 300 Spaniards prisoner.

While the Royalist advantage in numbers persisted and while the tension among the various classes of Peruvian society had not been wiped away, control of the coast gave Bolivar the strategic advantage. Convinced of the potential of the expedition, San Martin arrived in January 1821 with an additional 6,000 men. [12] He and Bolivar were treated to a public banquet even as the Spanish garrison in Lima brutally requisitioned food from the local citizenry.
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Notes:

[1] This is probably overly generous to Cochrane, who was really more at home in command of a single ship than in command of a fleet. The reader will recall that when we last left San Martin, Bolivar, and Cochrane, in March, 1820, they had just decided to attack Peru. If at first you don’t succeed, risk the whole venture on the next try, I suppose.

[2] San Martin is of course relieved to be rid of Bolivar while he sees to the details of the planned invasion. Bolivar on the other hand is quite taken with Cochrane’s daring plan.

[3] Cochrane lands troops under a false flag and proceeds to take 3 of 4 forts defending the harbor, precisely as he did in OTL, only some months later and with more troops. OTL the frigate Venganza was not at Valdivia, but one of the frigates Cochrane was hoping to find when he cut out the Esmeralda from Callao. TTL it does complicate the battle plan, since OTL Cochrane’s ships were manned by skeleton crews when they entered the harbor. TTL, however, Cochrane can leave Bolivar in command on land while he takes command of the O’Higgins to defeat and capture Venganza. I promised myself I wouldn’t harp on the details, but I quite enjoyed planning this part out. Of course, the primary significance of the capture of Valdivia is not just command of the sea, but to allow Bolivar and Cochrane to develop a sound working relationship, particularly as Bolivar comes to understand the potential uses to which he might put Cochrane's considerable talents.

[4] OTL Cochrane failed to capture the island. TTL he succeeds, with more troops on hand.

[5] TTL’s expedition is about a month behind OTL’s. Bolivar has of course been known to embroider the truth.

[6] Due to Bolivar’s élan, this is slightly better than OTL, in which San Martin sent Colonel Juan Álvarez de Arnales and 1,500 men and liberated about 600 slaves. Of course, Bolivar’s expedition was very risky.

[7] This is about 2 weeks faster than San Martin took Huacho OTL.

[8] OTL San Martin and Cochrane’s relationship began to fray because San Martin would not attack Lima. Knowing his was outnumbered by the Royalist army, San Martin hoped that the Peruvians, given protection of the Patriot army, would rise up and constitute their own liberating force. To Cochrane this seemed like an excuse for inaction; I also have to imagine that despite its sound logic, the notion of doing nothing was simply incompatible with Cochrane’s own military ethic. TTL Bolivar is not foolhardy enough to assault Lima; however, his experience with Cochrane has given him other ideas.

[9] OTL Cochrane attacked Callao without assistance from San Martin’s forces, doing so out of frustration with San Martin’s previously described reticence. TTL Bolivar conceives the plan. It is more audacious, but better equipped: OTL Cochrane only had about 160 seamen and 80 marines from the O’Higgins and only cut out the Esmeralda. He had hoped to find the Venganza and the Prueba in port, but both ships had taken to sea. Also, the excerpt above is an OTL source describing the battle, one Simón Camacho (taken from Robert Harvey’s Liberators, which is a very nice read for anyone interested in the subject.)

[10] This is true of OTL as well. This is largely a product of my research into the war in Peru over the past weeks. Essentially, once the Patriots held the coast, they had won half the battle. They could cut Peru off from the world and prevent the Viceroy and his forces from wielding political control beyond the high mountains. OTL’s San Martin could not hold this stalemate due to political discord and due to the fractious nature of his relationship with Cochrane. This is how TTL’s differences begin come into play: IMO Bolivar and Cochrane will cooperate very effectively.

[11] An OTL statement (presented in Harvey’s Liberators) pertaining to Cochrane alone; I’ve altered it to include Bolivar.

[12] Whereas OTL Cochrane and San Martin’s differences came to ahead after the former took the Esmeralda, TTL Cochrane does not press as hard for Bolivar to take Lima, first because he and Bolivar have hatched a wider strategy together and second because Bolivar needs him to manage the blockade and simultaneously transport San Martin’s army from Chile.
 
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