TL: "We Will Build a Modernized Society", America's 42nd President

Suburban America is the biggest bit of America in voting terms and economic centerism can give people who in OTL are reluctant Republicans an excuse to be repelled by Republican overreach on Social Issues.
 
This is one of my favorite current TLs. It does raise some interesting hypothetical questions. The Blair presented here seems to be reacting more to Democrats' reputation as tax-and-spenders than OTL Clinton, who was reacting more to the culture war stuff, what with the death penalty and the Rector execution and Sister Souljah, etc.

Wonder how that will end up shaking out as far as winning over the white working class that Clinton did well with in '92 -- TTL Blair would do better, you'd think, in the suburbs, but would that be enough to give him a '92 Clinton-style big victory in places like Louisiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, etc.? Interesting alternative scenario.

Yeah, that's where I've been trying to position Blair relative to OTL Clinton. By 1996, the economy is humming along as well, so there wouldn't be quite as many white working class folks in pain. I'm not giving much away, since we know he becomes President, but in some ways, flipping parties in a good economy with little international strife is similar to the 2000 election as well. After 16 years of one party holding government, there'd be a ton of GOP fatigue, even with the Democratic congress.
 
We now return to American Experience: the Presidents, continued in progress
(Part II American Experience Intro)


[Narrator] In Chicago at the Democratic National Convention, voters were greeted by a new Democratic Party.

[Lee Iacocca DNC Primetime Address, Night 1 August 13, 1996] Tony Blair has been a friend to auto workers. Tony Blair has been a friend to automakers, and Tony Blair, with his forward looking ideas will open the world to American cars, for that reason he has been a friend to consumers. But most of all he is my friend. With Tony Blair's ideas the nation will get back on track!]

[Chris Matthews] I think Democrats wanted a win badly, but in the back of their minds, some of it had to be almost a feeling of, 'who are these people?' It was the most corporate DNC I could remember in a while.

[HW Brands, University of Texas] It's an interesting election, because the economy had mostly recovered. Democrats could no longer really run on a populist message. They had to run as a fresh party of ideas. People are cynical about it now, but, for a nation where a lot of people suddenly felt pretty well off, this strategy fit the moment.

[Sen. Max Baucus DNC Primetime Address Night 2, August 14, 1996] For too long, Americans have been stuck between what they know is right, and what they think is practical. No more! We are New Democrats. Tony Blair is the kind of candidate that will no longer say only a few can benefit.]

[Narrator] The party's new ideology was spelled out in front of a record audience on the final night of the convention.

[Sen. Tony Blair, DNC Acceptance Speech Night 4, August 16, 1996] ...and that is why I humbly accept your nomination.

[George Stephanopoulos, Blair Communications Director ] It was the speech America wanted to hear.

[Sen. Tony Blair, DNC Acceptance Speech Night 4, August 16, 1996] Ask me my three main priorities for our country, and my answer is health care, health care, health care.

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[Maggie Williams, Blair Campaign Manager] Tony relished this opportunity. He wanted to let America know his vision.

[Sen. Tony Blair, DNC Acceptance Speech Night 4, August 16, 1996] College must be affordable for all. This is not an issue just for our kids -- this is an issue for all of us if we want to have the robust growth that is necessary to keep our country moving forward.

[Brit Hume, ABC Correspondent] It was a focus tested speech, but those who know Blair came to expect him to win when he stayed safely in the margins.

[Sen. Tony Blair, DNC Acceptance Speech Night 4, August 16, 1996] We have a unique opportunity to build our best nation. Tonight, we are New Democrats. We must never forget what we stand for. Social Security. Civil Rights. Medicare and Medicaid. Our vision of America has always been one that we're in this together will get us further than you're on your own. And that is why we can embrace the growth of our economy, and raise our country to a new place. We can build a modernized society, passionate in its commitment to social justice and the goals of the New Deal, but flexible and innovative and forward looking in the means to achieve them.

[David Gergen, CNN] It was a knockout speech. Not only did it convince skeptical Democrats, it gave those had been voting Republican a permission structure to vote for a Democrat. The Kiwanis Club Republicans almost felt like he was one of them. He'd move things forward, while focusing on growth.

[Jonathan Alter, Newsweek] The basic pitch to Democrats was, if we can be centrist, we can have it all. We are the natural governing party.




[Narrator] Going into the Republican National Convention, Democrats had reasons to be enthusiastic.

[Jonathan Alter, Newsweek] The feeling on the race at the time was that Blair had the momentum, but Quayle was still going to choose someone fairly standard.

[Karl Rove, Chief Strategist, Quayle for America] It was clear that the Vice President needed to do something to break Blair's momentum. We needed a game changer. After President Bush's speech on the third night, the stage was set.

[Tim Russert, (2004 interview)] What the Dan Quayle people were banking on was a recovery in polling that Republicans saw in the past. They almost did it with Ford vs. Carter in 1976, and they perfectly executed it with Bush vs. Dukakis in 1988, and even Bush vs. Cuomo in 1992. Republicans had this blueprint that kept working. A Democrat has momentum, but the convention is where they bring it home. At that time, the felt that if they can draw the nation's attention in, voters will come home.]

[NBC Nightly News with Tom Browkaw, August 26, 1996] Good evening. As Republicans seek an unprecedented 16 years of GOP rule, all eyes are on the Vice President, and the most asked question in America, who will be Dan Quayle's running mate?

[Karl Rove, Chief Strategist] We knew we needed a surprise. We needed something that would dominate news coverage. We were all so irritated that Blair was sucking up all the media oxygen. We had a young, telegenic candidate, and it was our time to show that we could manipulate media.

[Mary Matalin] By this point, we had a lot of possible candidates, and each got a full vet. What you need to remember is, your strategy when you're down 10 is a lot different than your strategy when you're even. We were willing to take risks.

[Karl Rove] Listen, you swing for the fences and strike out, or you hit a nice ground out to first, you're out even way. The Vice President wanted to go for the win, even if it meant a possible blowout loss. And that's why we went with our plan.

[Tom Brokaw, NBC RNC Special, August 28, 1996: Minutes before the nomination speech, has this ever happened before? Not knowing who the Vice Presidental Pick is?

Tim Russert: Very. One has to expect that Senator Reed, a rising star in the party knows the pick, and he'll be announcing the name tonight]

[Howard Kurtz, CNN] And as the speech went on that night, it started getting late, and there was the feeling almost like, 'gosh, are they going to name anyone?'

[Sen. Ralph Reed Nomination Speech, RNC Night 3, August 28, 1996] Let's continue the progress of President Bush, and President Reagan. And that is why, I nominate Vice Preisdent Dan Quayle for to continue to move or nation in the right direction!


[Mary Matalin] Typically, on the third night, the nomination speech ends, and everyone calls it a night.

[Tim Russert, 2004 interview] Oh, I'll never forget it, Reed ended, and confetti fell, the arena was going nuts, but everyone kind of did a wait-- who is the nominee, and then Quayle walked out.

[Vice President Dan Quayle] Well that was quite a speech wasn't it! I chose Senator Reed to give my nomination, because I know he would represent our nation if called upon to serve. Senator Reed, will you be my running mate?

[Tim Russert, 2004 interview] Oh the crowd ate it up. It was very good political theater. That was probably the high-water mark of his campaign.

[Mary Matalin] We won that cycle. In one swoop, suddenly we looked young and charismatic.

[Karl Rove] We had our path. The religious right would be with us. We had our base. In one swoop, with one youthful Senator, we activated every single evangelical voter in the country.

[Mary Matalin] Well, it just would have been nice if we did a deeper vet.

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Nice. Hmm, Ralph Reed, don't recognize the name. Also, not sure if you mentioned who Blaire picked as his running mate, or, if you did, I can't recall who.
 
Nice. Hmm, Ralph Reed, don't recognize the name. Also, not sure if you mentioned who Blair picked as his running mate, or, if you did, I can't recall who.
It was Sam Nunn, another Georgia Senator. Even when it counts, the people who back Quayle don't have any original thoughts.
 
Since I was pretty young during the 1990s culture wars, I hadn't really known much about him until I watched NBC's 1996 election coverage. Here's the Reed interview, he faded after the 1996 election.
He did actually right two fairly good novels.

“Dark Horse”: the story of the Governor of California who, after losing the democratic nomination in an underhanded move, decides to run as an independent with pro-life beliefs and the backing of the religious right. It also deals with Iranian terrorism threatening to take down the White House.

He wrote it in the midst of the 2008 Democratic primaries after seeing the contest between Obama and Clinton. He eventually has the Democratic Nominee, Senate Majority Leader Salmon Stanley, choose Betsy Hafer, the first term Governor of Pennsylvania as VP but who turns into a serious liability for the campaign (he predicted that part right, but got the party wrong).

He then wrote a sequel to this book: “The Confirmation”, which dealt with a Supreme Court battle.
 

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[We now return to American Experience: the Presidents, continued in progress]

[Narrator] As the campaign moved to the fall, despite a post convention bounce, the Vice President began to fumble his message.

[Mary Matalin, Quayle Chief Strategist] Most of us have never had to be on 24/7, and, well, at this level you can't have off days. We had some off days.

[HW Brands, historian] If you go back and look at his press coverage when he was a young Senator from Indiana, he beat Birch Bayh, he was seen as an astute and somewhat smart figure. However, you only get one first impression, and after those gaffes in '88, he kept falling into the narrative.

[Narrator] In early September, during a forum with the American Health Association the Vice President left many confused with his disjointed attempt to sum up the importance of health care.

[Dan Quayle ACA Forum, September 1, 1996] "Healthcare is about people. If you don't have health then you do not care. It's the health that allows you to care and that's healthy."

[Narrator] Weeks later, he would stumble at an internet connected "next gen" class room in Michiagn, with a dumbfounding statement.

[Dan Quayle, Dearborn Michigan, September 8, 1996] "Kids are today's leaders. Well, they're the future kids who will lead us tomorrow. We want them to do well, as the kids in the past have done well for our future today."

[Jonathan Alter, Newsweek] It was probably the fatigue more than anything. But, when you're running against someone with Blair' message discipline, you don't get many mulligans.

[Narrator] On September 28, 1996, the Democratic Congress delivered the Quayle campaign another blow, the House Ways and Means Committee advanced the American Health Security Act, forcing the issue to the floor of the body, and reinserting the issue back into the general election.

[George Stephanopoulos] There was a bit a of political maneuvering. The members on the committee, for the most part were not facing tough reelects, so they could send it to the floor. That the bill hadn't been voted on yet put us in the perfect position-- it was the House version of our Senate bill, but Quayle couldn't show support for fear of losing his base. At the same time, if he opposed it, we already were close to controlling the center, and he'd be painting himself in an unwinnable position.

[Joe Klein] Going into the first debate, everyone knew Quayle was in a bind. If he was for the plan, he'd hemorrhage voters from the right, if he was against the plan, he could pretty much kiss away all the battlegrounds he needed to win. Blair knew this. It was clearly Blair's plan the whole time, but regardless, he got everything to align for him.

[University of Nevada, first Presidential Debate, October 15, 1996, 14 minutes in to the debate]


Senator Blair: "I'm just asking. Does the Vice President support the President's healthcare plan or not? Two weeks ago he said he supported it, during the primary he was against it. I can't imagine I'm the only one who is somewhat curious where he stands. Am I?"

Tom Brokaw: "Vice President Quayle, your response?"


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Vice President Dan Quayle, (R-IN) October 15, 1996 Debate (AP Photo Credit)

Quayle: "Senator Blair is being disingenuous. Of course I want Americans to have health insurance, but it is his majority in the Senate that is keeping it from passing. [Blair interrupts off mic barely audible: I brought the plan forward!] I want Americans to have health insurance, under my administration they will get affordable health insurance. It's the obstruction from Senator Blair's majority that is keeping this from being passed. He is too partisan to bring Democrats on to a plan that the American public want. When I'm President, we will change that. Senator Blair wants universal single payer. That's one plan-- no plan. Not our market plan. He is beholden to the far left. Behind closed doors he says one thing, in public, another. It's cynical. It's the politics of convenience. The American people deserve better "

Tom Brokaw: "Your response, Senator?

Blair: "Tom, if I can for a second, I'm clear on this. The Democrats put a market based universal healthcare plan on our platform, which was passed on to our platform at our convention with unanimous support. I doubt that Vice President Quayle could put that idea to the Republican minority in Congress and get half of that!

[Crowd cheers]

Tom Brokaw [turns to crowd]: Please--

[Blair continuing]: After all, I'm only asking the Vice President to agree with what he was saying a few weeks ago, and agree with myself and the President that this plan should pass. Does the Vice President have the courage left to let us know if this plan, the plan that the President supports, is something he supports? Can he at least say he strongly urges conservative Republicans to vote for his White House's endorsed plan?

Quayle: Senator Blair is being ridiculous. He just came out of a primary where he had to beg the far left not to embrace socialized medicine. We will give Americans healthcare, but not in the big government plan that Senator Blair wants. Senator Blair may ram his political goals into the party platform, my administration will be above that, and actually serve the American people.

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Senator Tony Blair (D-OH) October 15, 1996 Debate (AP Photo Credit)

Blair [looking on the verge of incredulity]: I asked the Vice President two simple questions. First, does he support the President's Healthcare Plan? I've answered yes. He refused to answer. I then asked him, would he at least encourage and seek to persuade Republicans to vote for the President's plan? I've asked Democrats to. He refused to answer. He is so weak, he cannot even give the American people a straight answer. Isn't it extraordinary that the sitting Vice President of an administration, cannot even support the health care plan of his own party's President? His weakness is the reason that all Americans know his Administration would be the incompetent mess we all know it will be. Weak. Weak. Weak. ......weak. [Cheering in the hall]

Quayle: Senator. Well, that's just uncalled for. [Pausing while faint applause comes]

Blair: Weak. Just let us know where you stand on the President and my healthcare plan!

[Camera cuts to Quayle looking at Brokaw looking uncomfortably]

Blair: His party's incoherence on healthcare at a time when he says is his time to lead shows just how incompetent the Vice President has become. Weak.
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[Mary Matlin later interview]: It was a trainwreck. He seriously gave the same answer he did to Bentsen. I've never seen a debate go that poorly and I pray to God I'll never see it again.

[George Stephanaolplous]: What was the spin room like? Euphoria. I mean how does the Vice President set his own trap like that? He had to have prepared for it. Everyone in America knew the question would be asked. We told the Senator not to go too hard on the Vice President. Maybe it was the crowd in the room, which, by the way, was an energy I've never felt in a debate hall, or maybe it was just how clearly Quayle was trying not to answer, but he saw his moment and grabbed it.
 
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We now return to American Experience: the Presidents, continued in progress

[Narrator] Although viewers determined the winners of the following two debates on ideological ground, the damage had already been done.

[Mary Matalin] The first debate sucked all the momentum out of our campaign. What came after that was the dagger.

[Narrator] Unlike Democratic candidates of the past, the Blair campaign had no qualms about aggressive campaigning against their opponents.

[Paul Begala, Blair 96 Chief Strategist] After 88, and 92, there was a sense that we were not going to get caught flat footed again. We had one side that wanted to fight dirty, and Tony led the way in saying, this is our reality, and we have to win in the environment given to us.

[Narrator] Opposition research had been beefed up from previous campaigns. Surrogates had been cultivated to quickly launch the campaign's message across the county.

[George Stephanopoulos] By 1996, cable was starting to become an effective way to beam out message. Now, in addition to Crossfire, you had Fox News as a start up, MSNBC started in July, and we kind of took what we were already doing on these Ohio senate campaigns we'd run, and found people who could persuasively carry our message to viewers each night.

[Narrator] On October 18, 1996, Newsweek published a story outlining the FBI's investigation of questionable campaign activity by the Christian Coalition, at the time led by Reed.

[Michael Isikoff, Newsweek] Reed had worked for the Christian Coalition since 1987 in various capacities, and led the organization from 1989 through 1991, when he resigned to run for Senate.

[Karl Rove] When he took over at the Christian Coalition, it was just a shell of maybe 100,000 names on a mailing list left over from Pat Robertson's Presidential bid. It was always Reed that gave it the boost and used it to signal that the Christian voters were going to be a force in politics for a while. He made them financially viable, and unleashed the organization to help get a lot of people elected, including himself.

[Michael Isikoff] There was always talk around his senate race that there were some skeletons in their finances, but nothing we could really run with. When he was selected as Quayle's running mate, the ledes got much more concrete.

[October 18 NBC Nightly News story, Lisa Myers speaking] The story includes details that the FBI and FEC are investigating the organization, and the FEC is preparing an enforcement action in district court. Alleged are hundreds of thousands of dollars in unreported in-kind and direct donations to candidates in 1988, 1990, 1992 and 1994, the first half of which occurred under Reed's time leading the organization.

Furthermore, the story outlines lavish salaries and perks, private jets, and luxury hotels used by staff, including Reed, raising the question of whether donor money was misused.

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Senator Reed, defending his record

[Narrator] The Blair campaign wasted no time in taking advantage of the story.

[CNN Crossfire Episode, October 18, 1996, Senator Tom Daschle] I don't think it's out of the question that Senator Reed resign, certainly, he's disqualified himself from being qualified to be Vice President.

[Larry King Live Episode, October 18, 1996, Congressman Bill Richardson] Larry, it comes down to a matter of trust and integrity. Do you really want someone a heartbeat away from the Presidency that tries to sneak a fast one by us like that?

[Howard Kurtz] There was some theater involved in that. A campaign finance violation isn't the end of the world, but Blair's campaign, unlike previous Democratic outfits, actually pounced on the story, and made it sound very serious.

[Narrator] While Reed would remain on the ticket, the Quayle campaign would take another polling hit, creating a 10 point gap in nationwide polling just weeks before the election. Simultaneously, Blair's campaign was pushing forward.

[Maggie Williams, Blair Campaign Manager] By the time Get Out the Vote season had rolled around, we still had all our contacts databased from the primary campaign, and we were able to contact and turnout voters like no campaign had ever seen.

[John King, CNN] They were really the first campaign to digitize voter contact, and make sure that they knew what voters were going to vote for Blair, and what voters needed a reminder, or a bit a of encouragement leading up to the election to go vote. They ran the first modern GOTV that really would go on to boost his numbers.

[Narrator] The funding for the dual campaign of media penetration and in the field canvassing was paid for by an unprecedented direct mail funding campaign.

[Terry McAuliffe, Blair co-fundraising chair] If you were left leaning, we were going to find you. Heck, if you were center-right leaning, we were going to find you and ask for more money. Blair's still been the only candidate to break that kind of ground on small donations and gaining access to the business community.

[George Stephanopoulos, Blair Communications Director] Above all, the message was clicking with voters.

[Blair speaking at a November 1 campaign rally in Missouri] It's time to have an America for the many, not the few. We're not just going to reform welfare, but actually help folks who want a job to get ahead. An increased EITC, a modern minimum wage. We'll modernize our old ways of doing things, and create a society that helps all of us.

Screen Shot 2019-06-08 at 1.30.58 AM.jpg


[Narrator] As the election neared, what had begun as a groundswell of support began to turn into a landslide.

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Note: Scandal based off OTL FEC actions against the Christian Coalition during Reed's tenure: https://www.fec.gov/resources/about-fec/reports/ar96.pdf

*Also, sorry for the delay, I've finally taken a summer off from grad classes that coincides with the slow period of my job, so I should be able to chip away.
 
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