Yes I have decided on the results of the UK election, just wait and see
TL: The War of Dogger Bank, or the Anglo-Russian War - Version 2
- Thread starter WarlordGandhi
- Start date
In OTL the Russian economy during the Russo Japanese War very nearly collapsed, in TTL even a loose blockade by Britain would have caused the Russian economy to collapse, and with it, caused the Armed forces to disintegrateVery interesting and it would be even more so if you spent some time familiarizing yourself with some of the relevant facts.
Some comments on your scenario:
1. Russia is losing the war pretty much along the same lines as in OTL:
(a) Addition of the 15K British troops to the Japanese forces in Manchuria is pathetic (check size of the forces involved: at Mukden each side had approximately 300K and 1000 guns) and is not counterbalancing arrival of the new Russian troops to the theater.
(b) Earlier destruction of the 2nd Pacific fleet would not make things worse for Russia. Probably they would be better off because at least some ships are managing to escape and being defeated by the British navy is not as shameful as being fully destroyed by the Japanese.
(c) Japan is better off only financially (if the Britain is ready to finance the war) but not too much better in the terms of the troops numbers so Russia may be somewhat harder pressed in the terms of the territorial concessions but not too much so.
2. British naval blockade of Russia as economic factor is a "beauty".
(a) Russian commercial navy by 1901 amounted to 745 steamships (364,360 tons) and 2,293 sail ships (269,359 tons). Overwhelming majority of the steamers were on the Black & Azov Seas (316 ships, 186,774 tons) and Caspian Sea (261 ships, 119,932 tons). In other words, mostly safe from the British attacks.
(b) In 1901 out of all naval import/export of 18,163K tons 16,265K tons had been carried by the foreign ships while the cargo carried by those under the Russian flag amounted only to 10.4 % (http://istmat.info/node/65). Commercial traffic on the Pacific (the most vulnerable) was much smaller than on any other sea. So unless Britain starts enforcing a complete blockade causing problems to other European states, this part of your grand strategy is not going to work. OTOH, even just few armed fast speed steamships acting as the raiders could cause a considerable damage to the British commercial traffic before they are caught and sunk (as was the case with the German raiders during WWI).
3. Britain was the 3rd biggest investor into Russian economy after Belgium and France. In 1901: 181.5 mln rubles, 110.1 and 92.7, correspondingly with Germany being the remote 4th - 25.2 . What's interesting is that by 1915 Britain became the biggest investor. In other words, Rusophobia or not, there were serious long-term economic interests and investment possibilities which would put some restraint on your "going for broke" scenario. (https://research-journal.org/econom...-i-rossijskoj-federacii-komparativnyj-analiz/)
4. All that separatist/revolutionary stuff is not going to fly by a simple reason: too many regular troops are stationed in the European Russia (Russian problem in the RJW was inability to transport enough troops and ammunition to the Far East, not a general shortage of the troops and material) and there are no meaningful "separatist forces" capable of anything noticeably bigger then few acts of a terrorism. As for the general loss of prestige, rather ironically, after the RJW troops participating in fighting had been sneered upon by their colleagues who remained at home: standard perception was that they were incompetent and corrupt (see for example "50 Years in Service" by the "red" count Ignatieff). So, no, army in general was not compromised in a public opinion or in self-esteem and the navy was not too important branch of service to be a decisive factor.
5. Of course, the British help to the rebelling Poles is a good idea but it is even more problematic in 1905 than it was in 1944: how could it be done for the landlocked territory with Germany actively looking for the Russian alliance? How about looking at the map?
6. Blaming Witte is an interesting twist taking into an account the fact that he was on a record protesting the policies which led to the war. Not that firing him from the position of the chairman of the Committee of Ministers would have any practical meaning because this position was a purely decorative one. Basically, in 1903 he was kicked upstairs from the really powerful position of Minister of Finances.
7. Most important outcome of the whole schema: goodbye Russian-French alliance, welcome Russian-German one. Willy tried to sign it in OTL during the RJW but the whole thing failed due to the existing Russian-French treaty. Now, no matter rightly or wrongly, agreement with France is thrown out of the window (an issue of the French loans is "interesting" one). So your scenario most probably means a massive political realignment all the way to the restoration of Dreikaiserbund with France being isolated politically and militarily: its potential alliance with Britain would not be able to prevent it from a speedy defeat on land in the case of a German attack. Germany-Russia-AH are dominating European continent, WWI is impossible and Britain is mostly kept out of the European affairs.
1905 Part Three - Red, White and Black
Update!
1905 Part 3 Red, White and Black
September: Germany and Austria-Hungary issue an ultimatum to Poland; accept a Central Powers monarch on the throne of Poland and allow German and Austro-Hungarian troops access through Poland. Pilsudski reluctantly agrees to the demands under threat of invasion. German and Austro-Hungarian troops enter and quickly secure the country. The only major countries to have recognised Poland, Japan and the United States issue diplomatic protests but are unable to do anything else. Roman Dmowski and the National Democratic Party go underground and launch a terrorist campaign to rid Poland of the “Hunnic dogs”
September: The Lithuanians establish a defensive line along the Daugava and seize the city of Riga with little resistance
September: Tsar Nicholas II formally abdicates and retires to a country estate in Potsdam. All Tsarist armies in Russia declare allegiance to the government operating out of Yekaterinburg
September: Battle of Smolensk: Sakharov’s forces begin attacks on forces lead by Trotsky (numbering 70,000) defending the approaches to Smolensk, taking Vitebsk and Mogilev by the end of September
September: Ottoman forces move into Batum and Kars with minimal resistance, and prepare to advance on Tbilisi, claiming to be safeguarding the local population
September: With the ongoing situation in Russia, the Algeciras Conference quickly turns its focus from Morocco to what to with Russia. The Germany, Austria-Hungary, Spain and Italy advocate for support to be sent to Tsarist forces, while France, Great Britain and the United States advocate for support to be sent to Republican forces. The invasion of Poland by Germany and Austria-Hungary almost causes the already fragile conference to fall apart.
September: Baiov begins attacking in the direction of Kiev, leaving minimal forces screening his flank, believing that Conservative forces in the Kuban are of minimal threat
October: Germany and Austria-Hungary start building a puppet government in Poland. However, they differ on whether a Hohenzollern or a Habsburg should assume the Polish throne.
October: Battle of Smolensk: Sakharok is forced to call of his offensive just short of Smolensk amid heavy resistance, and the worsening winter
October: Lithuanian separatists formally declare the Republic of Greater Lithuania. They quickly align themselves with Germany
October: The Ottomans move on Tiflis. By the end of the month, most of Georgia is secure, and the Ottomans have linked up with the Azerbaijani rebels. The Ottomans give international recognition to the Azerbaijan in return for a defensive alliance and a share on the oil fields of Baku. Both Azerbaijan and the Ottomans make plans to crush the neighbouring Armenian revolt.
October: Battle of Poltava: Baiov’s army makes strong head way against poorly organised Ukrainian militias who quickly fall back towards the Dnieper
November: The powers attending the Algeciras Conference finally come to an agreement. The sovereignty of Morocco is recognised as fully independent. However, France is given control of the port of Casablanca. In regards to Russia, it is agreed to send support to both the Tsarist and Republican forces as each state saw fit.
November: HMS Dreadnought is laid down by the British, with increased amounts of magazine protection then what was originally designed
November: Romanian forces move into Bessarabia on the pretext of protecting local Romanians
November: Turks in Central Asia declare an independent Turkestan with Ottoman support. They seize Tashkent in a matter of days
November: The National Republic of Byelorussia is declared by Sakharov, who becomes the states de facto dictator
November: Battle of Poltava: Due to partisan forces disrupting his supply lines and a worsening winter, Baiov stops his offensive after retaking Poltava
December: Representatives from France arrive in London to discuss the solidification of the Entente-Cordial into a full military alliance between France and Great Britain. France also sends out diplomatic feelers to Japan regarding a similar alliance in order to counter German influence in the Pacific
December: With Ukraine unable to be retaken, and a lack of trade with other countries, famine is now imminent in Russia. Martov is forced to issue strict rationing laws in order to delay the looming disaster.
December: The Soviet Republic moves their capital to Moscow, believing it to be better defended than Petrograd
1905 Part 3 Red, White and Black
September: Germany and Austria-Hungary issue an ultimatum to Poland; accept a Central Powers monarch on the throne of Poland and allow German and Austro-Hungarian troops access through Poland. Pilsudski reluctantly agrees to the demands under threat of invasion. German and Austro-Hungarian troops enter and quickly secure the country. The only major countries to have recognised Poland, Japan and the United States issue diplomatic protests but are unable to do anything else. Roman Dmowski and the National Democratic Party go underground and launch a terrorist campaign to rid Poland of the “Hunnic dogs”
September: The Lithuanians establish a defensive line along the Daugava and seize the city of Riga with little resistance
September: Tsar Nicholas II formally abdicates and retires to a country estate in Potsdam. All Tsarist armies in Russia declare allegiance to the government operating out of Yekaterinburg
September: Battle of Smolensk: Sakharov’s forces begin attacks on forces lead by Trotsky (numbering 70,000) defending the approaches to Smolensk, taking Vitebsk and Mogilev by the end of September
September: Ottoman forces move into Batum and Kars with minimal resistance, and prepare to advance on Tbilisi, claiming to be safeguarding the local population
September: With the ongoing situation in Russia, the Algeciras Conference quickly turns its focus from Morocco to what to with Russia. The Germany, Austria-Hungary, Spain and Italy advocate for support to be sent to Tsarist forces, while France, Great Britain and the United States advocate for support to be sent to Republican forces. The invasion of Poland by Germany and Austria-Hungary almost causes the already fragile conference to fall apart.
September: Baiov begins attacking in the direction of Kiev, leaving minimal forces screening his flank, believing that Conservative forces in the Kuban are of minimal threat
October: Germany and Austria-Hungary start building a puppet government in Poland. However, they differ on whether a Hohenzollern or a Habsburg should assume the Polish throne.
October: Battle of Smolensk: Sakharok is forced to call of his offensive just short of Smolensk amid heavy resistance, and the worsening winter
October: Lithuanian separatists formally declare the Republic of Greater Lithuania. They quickly align themselves with Germany
October: The Ottomans move on Tiflis. By the end of the month, most of Georgia is secure, and the Ottomans have linked up with the Azerbaijani rebels. The Ottomans give international recognition to the Azerbaijan in return for a defensive alliance and a share on the oil fields of Baku. Both Azerbaijan and the Ottomans make plans to crush the neighbouring Armenian revolt.
October: Battle of Poltava: Baiov’s army makes strong head way against poorly organised Ukrainian militias who quickly fall back towards the Dnieper
November: The powers attending the Algeciras Conference finally come to an agreement. The sovereignty of Morocco is recognised as fully independent. However, France is given control of the port of Casablanca. In regards to Russia, it is agreed to send support to both the Tsarist and Republican forces as each state saw fit.
November: HMS Dreadnought is laid down by the British, with increased amounts of magazine protection then what was originally designed
November: Romanian forces move into Bessarabia on the pretext of protecting local Romanians
November: Turks in Central Asia declare an independent Turkestan with Ottoman support. They seize Tashkent in a matter of days
November: The National Republic of Byelorussia is declared by Sakharov, who becomes the states de facto dictator
November: Battle of Poltava: Due to partisan forces disrupting his supply lines and a worsening winter, Baiov stops his offensive after retaking Poltava
December: Representatives from France arrive in London to discuss the solidification of the Entente-Cordial into a full military alliance between France and Great Britain. France also sends out diplomatic feelers to Japan regarding a similar alliance in order to counter German influence in the Pacific
December: With Ukraine unable to be retaken, and a lack of trade with other countries, famine is now imminent in Russia. Martov is forced to issue strict rationing laws in order to delay the looming disaster.
December: The Soviet Republic moves their capital to Moscow, believing it to be better defended than Petrograd
The Ottomans started to become a sort of protector of the world’s Islamic independence movements during WW1 in OTL, it will be interesting to see how that plays out here because the Ottomans have a chance of surviving now. After all, if the Monarchists win then Europe will be a very German-dominated continent unlikely to ignite a large war.
You missed a point: the Brits could not establish an effective blockade (loose or close) without stepping on somebody's toes and endangering their own investments in Russia. In OTL what they did was very close to the maximal practical damage they could inflict.
As for the economic consequences, I'm not sure that the Russian economy "nearly collapsed" (any numeric data?) but the problems were undeniable, mostly due to the difficulty to get credits from the foreign banks (the argument used by Witte to convince Nicholas to start the peace talks) but the banks involved were mostly French and the problem with the new loans did not eliminate the French need to keep getting percentages by the existing ones. And because the main investor into the Russian loans was French middle class, too drastic course could be dangerous for any French government (not to mention that France still needed alliance with Russia against Germany which was more important to the national interests than shelling of a British village).
I'm not sure that otherwise the economy was really seriously hit. Of course, foreign debt grew from 6.63B rubles in 1902 to 9.04B in 1909 but then it started going down which indicates that impact was rather short-term. The taxes remained lower than in other major European countries while Japan had to raise taxes substantially to finance its military effort and still heavily relied upon the British help.
The Germans made the best decision with Poland. The Ottomans are playing it smart. They should use their newfound land to industrialize further
A Polish puppet king supported by the German Empire is more likely to be a Wettin than a Hohenzollern
Something interesting is that the Savoy have a cadet line with a decent claim on Spain's throne. King Victor Emannueles uncle was briefly king of Spain for three years and his sons are still alive.... also the bourbons have a nominal claim on the french throne, defunct that it is (arguably I tuink also the jacobite claim to England?).
Just something to consider.
Just something to consider.
If the Germans are smart they will setup a voting house as well in Poland, probably along the lines of how Germany is setup with the King at the top but people having some power and representation.
Though we are going to see a major rebalance of the world if Russia falls as that secures the eastern borders of AH and Germany. Ottomans might end up the biggest winner as the Russians were there biggest foes and a power that was always trying to stir up the Balkans against them.
Though we are going to see a major rebalance of the world if Russia falls as that secures the eastern borders of AH and Germany. Ottomans might end up the biggest winner as the Russians were there biggest foes and a power that was always trying to stir up the Balkans against them.
Sorry about a lack of an update. I’ve been fairly busy and I’ve been unable to dedicate some time to this tl. At the point it’s looking like an update sometime next weekend
Shadow Master
Banned
I'm sure, we'll all be here, waiting (somewhat) patiently...Sorry about a lack of an update. I’ve been fairly busy and I’ve been unable to dedicate some time to this tl. At the point it’s looking like an update sometime next weekend
Enjoying this a good deal, and looking forward to the next update.
VILLAGE!!!!! The Hartlepools were not a village, but a major shipbuilding and steel working area and well as a vital port supporting the East Durham coal field. Shelling them even with pop guns is not a trivial matter. France would be distancing itself from Russia as quickly as possible.
The Russian ship would probably not survive the attempt though as the 6 inch guns of the Heugh and Lighthouse Batteries would tear it apart as close inshore as it would have to be to use it's light guns.
That depends on how much the Germans and Austro-Hungarians interfere in the Russian Civil War and if the French try to reclaim Alsace Lorraine while Germany is focused on the East. The British may well stay out of it, as relations with France will be strained and with Germany mired in the east there's little reason to join in. The main point of contention with Germany is the expansion of the German Navy. With a land war to fight there will be little to spare for a fleet that is rapidly becoming obsolete after Dreadnought is built.
Well, if this is a big city then the whole scenario loses whatever little sense it could have (which was extremely close to zero to start with) and is not worthy of being considered seriously. It is one thing to panic and shot at the mistakenly identified fishing ship in the middle of a sea and quite different to attack a major port of a neutral country. Explanation that captain was drunk can't be taken seriously within this context unless you are going to assume that his 2nd in command, etc. are also drunk to a complete of insanity.
1906 Part One - The reign of Wladyslaw
Update!
1906 Part One The reign of Wladyslaw
January: Von Kaulbars, believing the Soviets to be overextended after their offensive against the Ukrainians, begins plans for an offensive north to break through and take Voronezh. Baiov in the meantime prepares to renew his offensive against the Ukrainians
January: Germany begins to covertly supply the National Republic of Byelorussia with arms in return for a guarantee by Sakharov to re-join a victorious Tsarist government as an autonomous protectorate. However, Sakharov has no intention of resuming the offensive towards Moscow, believing that the Tsarists will not be able to win the civil war and so believes he has a better chance of preserving his dictatorship by staying on the defence.
February: The 1906 United Kingdom general election is held. The Conservatives led by Arthur Balfour are narrowly defeated by the Liberals led by Henry Campbell-Bannerman. Despite having been deeply unpopular prior to 1905, British victory in the War of Dogger Bank bring Conservative popularity back high enough to almost win re-election.
February: The trial of Vladimir Lenin occurs. Despite calls for execution, Lenin is exiled from Russia and arrives in France.
March: The HMS Dreadnought is launched. All other capital ships in navies around the world are immediately obsolete. Major nations begin hastily designing Dreadnought class ships for their own navies.
March: France signs a military and defensive alliance known as the Western Entente with Great Britain. Both sides pledge to defend each other in the event of a war with an external power. France also signs a defensive alliance with Japan, mirroring the Anglo-Japanese Alliance
March: Second Battle of Smolensk: Having reinforced his army to 110,000 men Trotsky attacks the Army of White Russia in an attempt to retake Minsk and destroy Byelorussia. However, despite having minor numerical superiority, his troops run into well entrenched and armed Byelorussians, and take heavy losses without a breakthrough.
March: Ottoman forces push on Yerevan to crush the Armenian revolt. However, there advance is slow, as the Ottoman incursion into Russian Armenia prompts an uprising by Armenians living within the Ottoman Empire. Repression of the revolt is brutal, with Ottoman troops cracking down on Armenian civilians as well
March: Battle of Perm: Tsarist Russian forces cross the Urals and drive towards Perm. The Tsarist advance is slow due to horrendous infrastructure and determined resistance by local Soviet Guards
March: French and British produced arms and munitions begin arriving in Republican controlled Kuban
April: In response to the Western Entente and the Franco-Japanese Alliance, Germany begins sending out diplomatic feelers to the Chinese Qing government
April: Battle of Kiev: Baiov’s army resumes the offensive. However, the Ukrainians continue to wage guerrilla warfare and launch raiding attacks on Baiov’s rear and supply lines, while continually retreating west towards the Dnieper. Baiov advances slowly but surely
May: Battle of Voronezh: The Kuban Army under von Kaulbars launches its offensive north. His army quickly breaks through the outstretched forces on Baiov’s flank and quickly advances.
May: Battle of Kiev: With the offensive from the Kuban threatening his rear, Baiov calls of his offensive just short of the Dnieper river
June: Battle of Voronezh: Recognising that he is in danger of being cut off and encircled, Baiov withdraws his army north west in order to establish a defensive line from Belgorod to Voronezh
June: After months of debate between Germany and Austria-Hungary over the new monarch of a Central Powers Poland, Germanys greater role in the intervention means that they eventually win out. Prince Joachim of Prussia, youngest son of Kaiser Wilhelm II is chosen to become King Wladyslaw V of Poland. In the new Polish constitution (which is very similar to Germany’s constitution), the King is head of state and has the power to represent Poland in foreign affairs, while the Parliament (Sejm) requires his consent to pass laws. The Sejm is headed by a Prime Minister who is appointed by the King, who then has the power to appoint his cabinet. Elections to the Sejm are scheduled for September. NDP and other underground groups intensify their terrorist campaign against the “foreign puppet”.
June: Battle of Perm: The Tsarists finally take Perm from the Soviets but are exhausted and are unable to advance any further. They dig in to await the expected Soviet counterattack.
June: Second Battle of Smolensk: Soviet Guards under Trotsky finally breakthrough the Belorussian lines but are unable to exploit the breakthrough. The Byelorussians fall back to Vitebsk and Mogilev and prepare to fight a defence of the two cities.
June: German General von Mackensen arrives in Beijing. He and Viceroy Yuan Shikai found a military academy in Beijing to serve as a basis for a new professional Qing Army. Von Mackensen also serves as an advisor to Yuan’s New Army.
June: With the ongoing Armenian revolt, Ottoman forces begin rounding up Armenians into poorly constructed concentration camps throughout eastern Anatolia.
1906 Part One The reign of Wladyslaw
January: Von Kaulbars, believing the Soviets to be overextended after their offensive against the Ukrainians, begins plans for an offensive north to break through and take Voronezh. Baiov in the meantime prepares to renew his offensive against the Ukrainians
January: Germany begins to covertly supply the National Republic of Byelorussia with arms in return for a guarantee by Sakharov to re-join a victorious Tsarist government as an autonomous protectorate. However, Sakharov has no intention of resuming the offensive towards Moscow, believing that the Tsarists will not be able to win the civil war and so believes he has a better chance of preserving his dictatorship by staying on the defence.
February: The 1906 United Kingdom general election is held. The Conservatives led by Arthur Balfour are narrowly defeated by the Liberals led by Henry Campbell-Bannerman. Despite having been deeply unpopular prior to 1905, British victory in the War of Dogger Bank bring Conservative popularity back high enough to almost win re-election.
February: The trial of Vladimir Lenin occurs. Despite calls for execution, Lenin is exiled from Russia and arrives in France.
March: The HMS Dreadnought is launched. All other capital ships in navies around the world are immediately obsolete. Major nations begin hastily designing Dreadnought class ships for their own navies.
March: France signs a military and defensive alliance known as the Western Entente with Great Britain. Both sides pledge to defend each other in the event of a war with an external power. France also signs a defensive alliance with Japan, mirroring the Anglo-Japanese Alliance
March: Second Battle of Smolensk: Having reinforced his army to 110,000 men Trotsky attacks the Army of White Russia in an attempt to retake Minsk and destroy Byelorussia. However, despite having minor numerical superiority, his troops run into well entrenched and armed Byelorussians, and take heavy losses without a breakthrough.
March: Ottoman forces push on Yerevan to crush the Armenian revolt. However, there advance is slow, as the Ottoman incursion into Russian Armenia prompts an uprising by Armenians living within the Ottoman Empire. Repression of the revolt is brutal, with Ottoman troops cracking down on Armenian civilians as well
March: Battle of Perm: Tsarist Russian forces cross the Urals and drive towards Perm. The Tsarist advance is slow due to horrendous infrastructure and determined resistance by local Soviet Guards
March: French and British produced arms and munitions begin arriving in Republican controlled Kuban
April: In response to the Western Entente and the Franco-Japanese Alliance, Germany begins sending out diplomatic feelers to the Chinese Qing government
April: Battle of Kiev: Baiov’s army resumes the offensive. However, the Ukrainians continue to wage guerrilla warfare and launch raiding attacks on Baiov’s rear and supply lines, while continually retreating west towards the Dnieper. Baiov advances slowly but surely
May: Battle of Voronezh: The Kuban Army under von Kaulbars launches its offensive north. His army quickly breaks through the outstretched forces on Baiov’s flank and quickly advances.
May: Battle of Kiev: With the offensive from the Kuban threatening his rear, Baiov calls of his offensive just short of the Dnieper river
June: Battle of Voronezh: Recognising that he is in danger of being cut off and encircled, Baiov withdraws his army north west in order to establish a defensive line from Belgorod to Voronezh
June: After months of debate between Germany and Austria-Hungary over the new monarch of a Central Powers Poland, Germanys greater role in the intervention means that they eventually win out. Prince Joachim of Prussia, youngest son of Kaiser Wilhelm II is chosen to become King Wladyslaw V of Poland. In the new Polish constitution (which is very similar to Germany’s constitution), the King is head of state and has the power to represent Poland in foreign affairs, while the Parliament (Sejm) requires his consent to pass laws. The Sejm is headed by a Prime Minister who is appointed by the King, who then has the power to appoint his cabinet. Elections to the Sejm are scheduled for September. NDP and other underground groups intensify their terrorist campaign against the “foreign puppet”.
June: Battle of Perm: The Tsarists finally take Perm from the Soviets but are exhausted and are unable to advance any further. They dig in to await the expected Soviet counterattack.
June: Second Battle of Smolensk: Soviet Guards under Trotsky finally breakthrough the Belorussian lines but are unable to exploit the breakthrough. The Byelorussians fall back to Vitebsk and Mogilev and prepare to fight a defence of the two cities.
June: German General von Mackensen arrives in Beijing. He and Viceroy Yuan Shikai found a military academy in Beijing to serve as a basis for a new professional Qing Army. Von Mackensen also serves as an advisor to Yuan’s New Army.
June: With the ongoing Armenian revolt, Ottoman forces begin rounding up Armenians into poorly constructed concentration camps throughout eastern Anatolia.
With no bloodshed of their own, the Germans have just secured a coup in expanding their sphere of influence. They should head off as much chaos as possible by modernizing and integrating Poland into their power bloc