TL: The War of Dogger Bank, or the Anglo-Russian War - Version 2

[NoMommsen]

May: Vladimir Lenin arrives in Moscow from Switzerland

... but ITTL most likely not via Germany.

How will give him 'transit' ITTL ? ... Italy ? ... Austria ??


And ... after the May-Revolution of TTL - even if Germany had stayed out of the british-japanese vs. russians conflict - I have problems Germany simply sitting on the ropes while the russian empire goes 'BOOM' by not only socialistic, communistic but also nationalistic uprising right across its borders.

Pls don't forget that Kaiser Bill and his advisors were at that time rather 'pissed' about the socialists in Germany as these did not ... 'honored' the Kaisers incentive to stop the anti-socialists laws of Bismarck in 1890.

And vou've made Kaiser Bill 'just' the protector of the Romanows - and their empire (?) - granting them exile in Berlin.

 

[WarlordGandhi]

Dear @WarlordGandhi
Sry for commenting here so late, in a way 'just' came across it.

First :
I've enjoyed what you've written here so far
However ... wouldn't be me if I hadn't some 'nitpicks' to comment upon.

Thanks!

So, first comment/question : Where does this "HMS Sapphire" cruiser comes from ?

point one : in autumn 1904 there was no british cruiser of this name in service of the RN

(There was a Topaz-class cruiser of this name launched in march but completed/commisioned in Feb. 1905.)​

point two : how and why does any british cruiser show up at the assembly of fisher boats at the Doggerbank in october 1904 ?​

Thank you for picking that up. When I was doing my initial research the earilest composition of the Channel fleet i could find was from November 1905, which has the HMS Sapphire as an attached cruiser. However, after writing some of the TL, i had a though that the ship might not have been commissioned by October 1904, did more research saw that it hadnt, and changed the ship to HMS Dido. I must not have amended that in the TL. Again thanks for picking that up.
To point two,

July: Due to the tensions with Russia, Vice Admiral Lord Charles Beresford begins conducting regular training exercises and patrols in the North Sea with the British Channel Fleet

Second comment/question : 'Role' of Germany in the Doggerbank-War

The 'incident was just another boost to Wilhelm II's as well as his then chancellor von Bülow ('intimate non-friend' of the then french foreign affairs minister Delcasse) attempts at this time to form a german-russian alliance

-which included the offer of help of the german 'Ostasian'-Squadron
-as the harbour of Tsingtao was ordered to reinforce/extend its fortifications
-which included the offer to build additional russian ships on german yards​

For the moment (1904/05 and even still later) Russia, tsarist Russia was the wished-for partner for the germans.

And in an actual conflict with Britain at that point in 1904 I won't see how Russia would NOT jump on any offer of support or partnership by esp. another great power neighbouring the North-Sea.​

To this, Germany refrained from anything other than minimal support due to how trashed the Russians were getting. However, it will be revealed in the next update how the Germans respond to the revolution as a Tsarist Russia allied with Germany is still on the tables.

 

[WarlordGandhi]

... but ITTL most likely not via Germany.

How will give him 'transit' ITTL ? ... Italy ? ... Austria ??

Thats actually an interesting question. In OTL he found his way back to Russia in 1905 upon hearing of the 1905 Revolution so I just assumed he would be able to TTL. However, upon further research I cant actually find how he got back to Russia OTL. If someone has knowledge on how he was able to OTL then that would be appreciated

And ... after the May-Revolution of TTL - even if Germany had stayed out of the british-japanese vs. russians conflict - I have problems Germany simply sitting on the ropes while the russian empire goes 'BOOM' by not only socialistic, communistic but also nationalistic uprising right across its borders.

Pls don't forget that Kaiser Bill and his advisors were at that time rather 'pissed' about the socialists in Germany as these did not ... 'honored' the Kaisers incentive to stop the anti-socialists laws of Bismarck in 1890.

And vou've made Kaiser Bill 'just' the protector of the Romanows - and their empire (?) - granting them exile in Berlin.

Like I said before, the next update will see the German response

 

[Catsmate]

Which is perfectly OTL, considering how the Russians and Austrians fared.

After all the Italians managed to win at Vittorio Veneto. After they fired Cadorna....

Speaking of Italy she is almost certainly going to use the opportunity to pester France. OTL she agreed to the Moroccan annexation in exchange for Libya... TTL she will probably demand more, most probably Tunisia (given her OTL arrogance she might make a pass for Corsica or Nice but that's a hard no without a war)/ Especially since her ally, Germany, is likely to encourage her opportunism... And then there are the Ottomans. This could very easily escalate the war all by its own.

Oooo, a fascinating set of possibilities. Let's consider.

France is in a hole; her main ally is dead for all intents-and-purposes. Her potential ally, Britain, is aggravated and probably not to be pushed. As an aside Delcassé is probably tearing our his hair, and the First Moroccan Crisis (which he engineered) probably won't happen.
France is now looking at a Germany emboldened by the disintegration of Russia and should be very worried. Now, wrt to Italian ambitions, the questions are:

1. Are the French feeling belligerent and needing to assert themselves?
2. To what extent do the Italians feels confident of German support?
3. How is Britain feeling wrt France and, more importantly, Germany? How's the naval arms race going? I Britain spending more on warships or retrenching after the war?

 

[Admiral A. Kolchak]

Some ideas for future updates:

Germany has the Emperor and his family in custody. The Kaiser, knowing his personality and status as a major European head of state, would almost certainly want to launch a crusade into Russia against the socialists. It’s entirely possible he might be overruled by civilian or military leaders though.

The Cossacks will try to ovethrow the socialist government. I think you should amend their “revolt” to be a declaration of semi-independence, because they were very loyal to the regime. However, they also will see the impracticability of relying on the regime for protection, even before Nikolai II flees.

I can see them forming the basis of a rival government. OTL they were the anchor of the white movement. Denikin, a major white commander, was a former ataman of the Simrechye Host.

As I said, Ukraine would win control over its claimed land by default, because the Kiev Military District, the only military organization in position to oppose them, is going to disentigrate after Kiev falls and there will no longer be Russian forces to contest Ukraine’s independence.

 

[Drizzt]

Some ideas for future updates:

Germany has the Emperor and his family in custody. The Kaiser, knowing his personality and status as a major European head of state, would almost certainly want to launch a crusade into Russia against the socialists. It’s entirely possible he might be overruled by civilian or military leaders though.

Germany is the question indeed.
I'm sure most of Germanys leadership is pragmatic enough to realize that:
1. In the long or even mid-term the best thing for them is a maximum amount of independence movements succeeding and Russia being shrunk to only ethnic Russia, because a re-united one will always be a threat to them regardless of who is in charge.
2. Even "smallest realistic Russia" will be bigger and stronger then any new nations in Eastern Europe once rebuilt and no matter who's in charge will be irredentist. So Germany will be perfectly situation to turn them into client states without firing a shot once those figure out that they have the choice of being a German Client or a Russian Province.
However nations don't always act pragmatic. They have been known to "think with their stomach" plenty of times and make heat of the moment decisions.

 

[Wolttaire]

Watched

 

[WarlordGandhi]

Oooo, a fascinating set of possibilities. Let's consider.

France is in a hole; her main ally is dead for all intents-and-purposes. Her potential ally, Britain, is aggravated and probably not to be pushed. As an aside Delcassé is probably tearing our his hair, and the First Moroccan Crisis (which he engineered) probably won't happen.
France is now looking at a Germany emboldened by the disintegration of Russia and should be very worried. Now, wrt to Italian ambitions, the questions are:

1. Are the French feeling belligerent and needing to assert themselves?
2. To what extent do the Italians feels confident of German support?
3. How is Britain feeling wrt France and, more importantly, Germany? How's the naval arms race going? I Britain spending more on warships or retrenching after the war?

1. France is essentially cornered and knows this. They will be attempting to keep a low profile while they build up their alliances again
2. Italy will gain concessions from France during the Algeciras conference
3. Well, all I can say to that is HMS Dreadnought is about to be laid down

Some ideas for future updates:

Germany has the Emperor and his family in custody. The Kaiser, knowing his personality and status as a major European head of state, would almost certainly want to launch a crusade into Russia against the socialists. It’s entirely possible he might be overruled by civilian or military leaders though.

The Cossacks will try to ovethrow the socialist government. I think you should amend their “revolt” to be a declaration of semi-independence, because they were very loyal to the regime. However, they also will see the impracticability of relying on the regime for protection, even before Nikolai II flees.

I can see them forming the basis of a rival government. OTL they were the anchor of the white movement. Denikin, a major white commander, was a former ataman of the Simrechye Host.

As I said, Ukraine would win control over its claimed land by default, because the Kiev Military District, the only military organization in position to oppose them, is going to disentigrate after Kiev falls and there will no longer be Russian forces to contest Ukraine’s independence.

Germany is the question indeed.
I'm sure most of Germanys leadership is pragmatic enough to realize that:
1. In the long or even mid-term the best thing for them is a maximum amount of independence movements succeeding and Russia being shrunk to only ethnic Russia, because a re-united one will always be a threat to them regardless of who is in charge.
2. Even "smallest realistic Russia" will be bigger and stronger then any new nations in Eastern Europe once rebuilt and no matter who's in charge will be irredentist. So Germany will be perfectly situation to turn them into client states without firing a shot once those figure out that they have the choice of being a German Client or a Russian Province.
However nations don't always act pragmatic. They have been known to "think with their stomach" plenty of times and make heat of the moment decisions.

These points will be addressed in the next update

 

[WarlordGandhi]

Update!

1905 Part 2 - Good God what have we done

July: Election of the Peoples Duma occurs. Gerrymandering results in the Mensheviks/Left SR coalition achieving absolute control of the Peoples Duma. Martov is elected as Prime Commissar of the Soviet Republic of Russia, with Trotsky elected Commissar of War, and Maria Spiridonova elected Commissar of the Peasantry. The Soviet Guard is proclaimed the military of the Soviet Republic. St. Petersburg is renamed Petrograd.

July: Beginning of the Russian Civil War: Conservative and Tsarist forces declare the results of the election to be fraudulent. Tsarist governments are declared in Siberia, while Right SRs and other conservatives side with the Cossacks who have already revolted against the new government in the Kuban. An uprising by reactionary army generals also occurs in White Russia. The Bolsheviks, led by Vladimir Lenin seize control of several areas in Moscow, declaring the new government to be against the will of the workers

July: Lithuanian separatists have cleared Lithuania of Russian troops and now advance to the Daugava River to establish an effective defensive line along the river

July: Germany and Austria Hungary covertly pledge support for Tsarist forces in Central Asia in return for secret agreements for Russia to keep out of the Balkans once they retake power

July: The Japanese move into Outer Manchuria without resistance on the pretext of protecting shipping in the area

July: Battle of Brest: Polish militias take Brest from shattered Russian units. There is a mass defection to conservative forces in White Russia

August: Tsarist forces in Yekaterinburg declare Grand Duke Michael as the legitimate Tsar Michael II. Due to German backing of these Tsarist Forces, Kaiser Wilhelm II pressures Nicholas II to quietly abdicate his throne in favour of Tsar Michael II to ensure that all Tsarist forces unite behind Michael.

August: The Bolshevik revolt is crushed by Soviet Guards led by Trotsky. Lenin is captured and imprisoned, awaiting trial.

August: The Army of White Russia, led by Victor Sakharov and 90,000 men strong attack in the direction of Smolensk, using Minsk as a staging area

August: 100,000 Soviet Guards under Aleksei Baiov begin organising in Kharkov, with orders to launch a campaign to take back Kiev and crush the Ukrainian insurgency

August: The Algeciras Conference occurs. Germany attempts to obtain international prestige by gaining multiple concessions from France to show their power. The conference quickly splits into two blocs, with Austria-Hungary backing Germany, and Great Britain, Spain and the United States backing France. Italy initially abstains, but backs France after the French agree to give Italy a free hand in Libya. The Japanese observers are pro-French as well

August: Cossack and Conservative armies numbering 70,000 strong under Alexander von Kaulbars begin establishing a defence along the line of Tsaritsyn to Rostov, believing an attack by Soviet Guards to be imminent. Cossacks begin conducting raids to the north

August: Poland, having driven Russian forces out of Congress Poland declares full independence. A transitionary government led by Jozef Pilsudski is formed in Warsaw. However, alarmed by the prospect of an independent Polish state on their border, Germany and Austria-Hungary begin amassing troops on the border for a planned armed intervention to begin in early September

August: Finnish forces establish a perimeter around the north of Petrograd, but do not advance on the city itself

Next: 1905 Part 3 Red, White and Black

 

[Admiral A. Kolchak]

So who’s the de facto leader of conservative!Russia right now? The Emperor is Mihaíl II, but how much power does he really have over the government in Ekaterinburg?

 

[highwayhoss]

July: Germany and Austria Hungary covertly pledge support for Tsarist forces in Central Asia in return for secret agreements for Russia to keep out of the Balkans once they retake power.

August: Tsarist forces in Yekaterinburg declare Grand Duke Michael as the legitimate Tsar Michael II. Due to German backing of these Tsarist Forces, Kaiser Wilhelm II pressures Nicholas II to quietly abdicate his throne in favour of Tsar Michael II to ensure that all Tsarist forces unite behind Michael.

This makes sense; Nicholas II is effectively discredited at this point. Michael will be a great rallying figure for Pro-Tsarist forces in Russia.

BTW maybe have a mention of the Ottomans' reaction? They have got to be smiling at the collapse of their bitter enemy....

July: The Japanese move into Outer Manchuria without resistance on the pretext of protecting shipping in the area.

No surprise there; Japan has to be drooling at the openings Russia's collapse gives them....
BTW one notable butterfly would be how Japanese Naval doctrine develops without the effects of the battle of Tsushima ITTL....

August: The Algeciras Conference occurs. Germany attempts to obtain international prestige by gaining multiple concessions from France to show their power. The conference quickly splits into two blocs, with Austria-Hungary backing Germany, and Great Britain, Spain and the United States backing France. Italy initially abstains, but backs France after the French agree to give Italy a free hand in Libya. The Japanese observers are pro-French as well

August: Poland, having driven Russian forces out of Congress Poland declares full independence. A transitionary government led by Jozef Pilsudski is formed in Warsaw. However, alarmed by the prospect of an independent Polish state on their border, Germany and Austria-Hungary begin amassing troops on the border for a planned armed intervention to begin in early September

One possible idea; France will propose for the conference to recognize not only Algeciras independence but also Poland, Ukraine and/or Finland as well. This would be a good way to turn the conference to its advantage. They can also push for support and recognition of the Peoples' Dumas as the legitimate government of Russia. This would be a good way to turn the tables on Germany.

 

[The Congressman]

The Germans would be best to pressure Poland with the prospect of a military intervention to sign a favorable alliance treaty with them and allow a Hohenzollern Prince to be crowned King.

 

[WarlordGandhi]

So who’s the de facto leader of conservative!Russia right now? The Emperor is Mihaíl II, but how much power does he really have over the government in Ekaterinburg?

Tsarist Russia is essentially an aristocratic oligarchy with Tsar Michael as their figurehead.

BTW maybe have a mention of the Ottomans' reaction? They have got to be smiling at the collapse of their bitter enemy....

Ottoman reaction will happen in part 3 of 1905

One possible idea; France will propose for the conference to recognize not only Algeciras independence but also Poland, Ukraine and/or Finland as well. This would be a good way to turn the conference to its advantage. They can also push for support and recognition of the Peoples' Dumas as the legitimate government of Russia. This would be a good way to turn the tables on Germany.

About this, would it be in Frances interest to have a group of recognised independent states acting as a buffer between Russia and Germany, where those stats would easily be aligned with Germany by the time the Russian civil war ends? Or would it be in Frances interest for those states to be retaken by Russia so that France has another shot at countering Germany by allying a unified Russia, having legitimised itself by winning the civil war?
Further considering the government of France is conservative as of 1905, is it in their best interest to recognise Soviet Russia?
Food for thought...

 

[highwayhoss]

Tsarist Russia is essentially an aristocratic oligarchy with Tsar Michael as their figurehead.

About this, would it be in Frances interest to have a group of recognised independent states acting as a buffer between Russia and Germany, where those stats would easily be aligned with Germany by the time the Russian civil war ends?
Or would it be in Frances interest for those states to be retaken by Russia so that France has another shot at countering Germany by allying a unified Russia, having legitimised itself by winning the civil war?
Further considering the government of France is conservative as of 1905, is it in their best interest to recognise Soviet Russia?
Food for thought...

Yum Yum!
A unified Russia under an aristocratic oligarchy with Tsar Michael as their figurehead will no doubt be strongly pro-German (some nobles saw the Franco-Russian alliance as an aberration). Soviet Russia OTOH could be more inclined to seek French aid, especially if the Kaiser supports the Tsar. Regardless of the nature of the Government, the idea of "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" will apply here.
The Kaiser will never tolerate the idea of an independent Poland; such a state would be a serious threat to Germany's (and A-H's) eastern borders. The Kaiser will IMHO insist on the Tsar crushing all independence movements (strongly supported by Austria-Hungary; they do not want any of their ethnic minorities getting ideas....)

 

[WarlordGandhi]

Another thing to note is that this is not a two sided civil war, conservative democratic forces have risen in the Kuban and allied with the Cossacks, with no allegiance to the Tsar: Nicholas nor Michael

 

[Augenis]

A Pilsudski led Poland in 1905 is probably going to be SR or even Bolshevik aligned, given that Pilsudski was a radical socialist at this time.

 

[NoMommsen]

Nice update @WarlordGandhi

However ... as usual some ... nitpicking questions

What happened to the franco-russian alliance of 1894 ?
How was the russian reaction to the french ... desinterest in its ally being beaten by the brits ?
Also the french position against the Russia 'attacking' Poland ?
And wouldn't Finland and the Ukraine also have to be seen as 'agressors' against Russia nibbling on its territory (though not named in the wordings of the alliance) ?

With the Romanows going to Berlin instead of Paris ... might be a 'sign' already ?

Also :
Who will be seen by the 'international community' as the 'successor' in the russian goverments legal rights and obligations internationally ? (assets as well as debts i.e. ...)

Also :
It looks a wee bit surreal to me, that at the Algericas-Conference ITTL Russia won't be a 'theme' with all these Great or Big or formerly Big (Spain) Powers sitting on a table together.

 

[NoMommsen]

...
No surprise there; Japan has to be drooling at the openings Russia's collapse gives them....
BTW one notable butterfly would be how Japanese Naval doctrine develops without the effects of the battle of Tsushima ITTL....
...

A quesion that IMHO would apply to naval strategy and especially tactics of EVERY seagoing nation.

 

[Catsmate]

Update!
<brevity snip>

Excellent, a messy multi-sided civil war in Russia. Ripe for Germany to Finlandise chunks of eastern Europe and eliminate the threat a united Russia would pose to them.

 

[Catsmate]

A Pilsudski led Poland in 1905 is probably going to be SR or even Bolshevik aligned, given that Pilsudski was a radical socialist at this time.

Assuming he lives that long.