Hey all!
About a year and a half ago I started a timeline about what if the Dogger bank incident had led to a war between Russia and Great Britain in 1904: link here
I have decided that that TL was flawed and made fatal errors, and so I am starting version 2 here in a different format. I will be keeping some stuff from version 1 but discarding nearly everything else
So here is entry 1 of Version 2
France is in an impossible position. They must have the alliance with Russia to deter Germany. They must ally with Russia. France must not be an enemy of the UK. They must not ally with Russia.
The only French move I see is aggressive mediation, pressuring Russia to surrender and if necessary give/loan the money for LARGE reparations. All the while hoping that Kaiser Bill the loose cannon doesn't enter the war in support of his English cousins. This mediation/settlement might require France to ally with Russia against Japan.
After the Dogger Banks was ends
(best case): Russia will be weakened and smaller. The UK will be a somewhat pro-German neutral. France will be isolated. Germany may not enter round 2 of the battleship race (or the Kaiser may be the same stupid as OTL).
(worst case): the Great War breaks out in 1905 with UK an associated power with the Germany, Austria-Hungary alliance.
TL: The War of Dogger Bank, or the Anglo-Russian War - Version 2
- Thread starter WarlordGandhi
- Start date
Kaiser Bill's in a similar situation; does he support the British or try to mediate a settlement in hopes of mending relations with the Czar? Basically, this is a diplomatic timebomb that will requires very delicate handling to avoid expanding the war.
So guys what I’m thinking of doing is uploading a draft of the next update so I can get your guys opinions so that the final update is as good as it can be. 1905 is quite an important year and I’ve divided it into two halves to cover all the events within it.
Do you guys reckon this is a good idea?
Do you guys reckon this is a good idea?
Will do. I’ll be uploading the draft of the first half of 1905 sometime tomorrow or the day after
The crew weren't much better. Frankly I'm surprised they managed to hit Hartlepool, given their failures against the Aldebaran, Sonntag and Guyane (over three hundred rounds fired without hitting anything).
The Kamchatka's captain Stepanov (who in addition to being frequently drunk also may have had issues with opium) was particularly prone to signal problems; off Denmark it signalled the fleet that it was under attack by torpedo boats while attempting to ask for permission to dump 150 tonnes of poor quality coal (which he claimed was the reason for the poor performance of his ship's engines).
Oh quite possibly. Or one of the other surviving Russian ships (the Kamchatka wasn't the only other trigger happy warship there). The Norwegian Skaatol and one other unnamed ship were also fired upon.
Could be worse. In 1940, minelaying off Norway, Bomber Command failed to hit the sea.
But wasn't Sweden-Norway and an ardent supporter of neutrality no matter the cost?
True, the dissolution wasn't until November 1905 but the ship was Norwegian built and crewed and was referred to in the press as 'Norwegian'.
I believe that the Russians firing on a neutral was vexing to the Swedes/Norwegians.
I think at this point the US, France and/or Germany should step in and tell the British to calm down; after all the Russian Navy is destroyed and Russia is impotent and helpless. Further war is pointless. Get a Congress organized to work out a treaty to end the wars with suitable compensation.
AFAIK Norway had an independent merchant marine whilst part of the dual monarchy
So does that mean Sweden Norway stay out of the conflict with Russia?
Driftless
Donor
The Norwegians had some limited autonomy from 1814, with the final separation from Sweden in mid 1905. There was some dynamic tension between Norway and Sweden during that final dissolution, so I'd think they'd have very little interest in an outside fight.
LucaTheDevilCat
Banned
I'd imagine Britain is gonna kick Russia's arse big time, maybe even a earlier Bolshevik or at least republican revolution.
Will Britain be like OTL Germany and smuggle in Lenin and other dissidents?
Will Britain be like OTL Germany and smuggle in Lenin and other dissidents?
Driftless
Donor
A real unlikely way of pulling the Swedes or Norwegians into the fight is to have some bright spark in St Petersburg decide that since the Russians are taking a beat-down from both the British and Japanese; that a national face-saving victory is needed. So, they pick a fight with a smaller neighbor that they can win. Earlier military occupation of the Aland Islands, an incursion into northern Sweden, or Finnmark in northern Norway? Russian military occupied the Alands in 1906 I believe, but the others would be a reach, I think.
Expect that Germany has a vested interest in Britain not calming down and the US has no dog in this fight.
I shall be uploading the draft for the first half of 1905 below. I would greatly appreciate your discussion about the draft, and id there is anything you feel I've missed or have not accounted for, or if you would like me to expand on something, please feel free to comment!
1905 Part One - Rule Britannia? DRAFT
January: The British Far Eastern Expeditionary Force, numbering 15,000 men arrives in Korea to fight alongside the Japanese in Manchuria. British and Japanese forces fighting together results in increased Anglophile and Japanophile feeling in both countries
January: Following the Polish uprising, separatist groups in the Caucasus, Lithuania and the Ukraine begin organising
January: Germany begins covertly supplying the separatist movements in Russia, aiding them with guns and supplies
January: Bloody Monday: A peaceful protest outside the Winter Palace quickly turns violent as the palace guards fire onto the crowd. The ensuing bloodshed results in 35 people dead and many more injured. Public opinion turns firmly against the Tsarist government, who label Tsar Nicholas as “Nicholas the Bloody”
January: The St. Petersburg and Moscow Soviets are formed to represent the workers of Russia. Many more Soviets are formed in other cities soon after. The St. Petersburg Soviet is crucially led by Leon Trotsky
February: The Battle of Mukden ends in a decisive victory for the combined Anglo-Japanese army. Russian units in the far east are completely shattered and cannot prevent a Japanese occupation of Manchuria.
February: The Japanese occupy Sakhalin
February: Menshevik and Left leaning SR leaders take command of the growing protests in Russia. The protests become more organised and paralysing. As a result, the Russian economy fully collapses
February: Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany arrives in Tangier and confers with representatives of the Sultan of Morocco. Germany declares they support the sovereignty of Morocco
March: Battle of Warsaw: Polish nationalist militias rise up in Warsaw, coinciding with an attack by Polish militias in Lodz
March: Due to France essentially having no allies in Europe, the French agree to attend a bilateral conference with Germany discussing the sovereignty of Morocco, to be held in August in the city of Algeciras
March: Protests in Moscow and St Petersburg number in the hundreds of thousands. Russian soldiers begin defecting to the Soviets
March: Russia sues for peace. Tsar Nicholas II and his close advisors travel to Liverpool for peace negotiations, hoping that his presence would make the British more lenient
April: Battle of Warsaw: Warsaw falls to Polish militias, shattered Russian forces retreat eastwards amid mass desertion
April: Leon Trotsky organises the Soviet Guard, a paramilitary group operating on behalf of the Soviets. It is formed primarily from defecting soldiers and officers from the former Tsarist army
April: Treaty of Liverpool: Despite the Tsar’s wishes, Britain and Japan impose a harsh peace on Russia. Some of the more important terms of the Treaty of Liverpool include:
-Russia will acknowledge Korea and Inner Manchuria as part of Japans sphere of influence
-Russia will cede control of Sakhalin and Port Arthur to the Empire of Japan, and abandon her ambitions on China
-Vladivostok will be demilitarised for 10 years
-Russia will pay 10 million pounds to Japan and Great Britain in war reparations
-Russia will fully compensate the families of those lost in the Battle of Dogger Bank
-Russia will limit its Far Eastern Fleet to one capital ship, as well as escorts
-Russia will abandon its ambitions on Persia, Afghanistan and the Ottoman Empire
May: The May Revolution: The Tsar is refused re-entry to St Petersburg upon his return from peace negotiations in Liverpool. The Soviet Guard under Trotsky storms the winter palace and arrests government officials still loyal to the Tsar. The Soviet Republic of Russia is proclaimed by Julius Martov and Leon Trotsky. Elections for the new Peoples Duma are scheduled for July. Crucially, the Provisional government refuses to negotiate nor acknowledge the various separatist groups fighting within the former Tsarist Russia
May: The Russian Royal family flees to Germany, where they find refuge in the royal court of Kaiser Wilhelm II. Tsar Nicholas II does not relinquish his claim to the Russian throne
May: Vladimir Lenin arrives in Moscow from Switzerland
May: Finland declares independence and begins fighting the provisional government
May: First Battle of Kiev: Kiev falls to Ukrainian separatists with minimal resistance due to the chaos caused by the revolution
June: Battle of Brest: Polish militias drive towards Brest in an effort to take the city before the Provisional Government consolidates their power
June: Ukrainian forces, following their victory in Kiev, cross the river Dnieper and advance eastward. They quickly take Poltava and Zaporizhia
1905 Part One - Rule Britannia? DRAFT
January: The British Far Eastern Expeditionary Force, numbering 15,000 men arrives in Korea to fight alongside the Japanese in Manchuria. British and Japanese forces fighting together results in increased Anglophile and Japanophile feeling in both countries
January: Following the Polish uprising, separatist groups in the Caucasus, Lithuania and the Ukraine begin organising
January: Germany begins covertly supplying the separatist movements in Russia, aiding them with guns and supplies
January: Bloody Monday: A peaceful protest outside the Winter Palace quickly turns violent as the palace guards fire onto the crowd. The ensuing bloodshed results in 35 people dead and many more injured. Public opinion turns firmly against the Tsarist government, who label Tsar Nicholas as “Nicholas the Bloody”
January: The St. Petersburg and Moscow Soviets are formed to represent the workers of Russia. Many more Soviets are formed in other cities soon after. The St. Petersburg Soviet is crucially led by Leon Trotsky
February: The Battle of Mukden ends in a decisive victory for the combined Anglo-Japanese army. Russian units in the far east are completely shattered and cannot prevent a Japanese occupation of Manchuria.
February: The Japanese occupy Sakhalin
February: Menshevik and Left leaning SR leaders take command of the growing protests in Russia. The protests become more organised and paralysing. As a result, the Russian economy fully collapses
February: Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany arrives in Tangier and confers with representatives of the Sultan of Morocco. Germany declares they support the sovereignty of Morocco
March: Battle of Warsaw: Polish nationalist militias rise up in Warsaw, coinciding with an attack by Polish militias in Lodz
March: Due to France essentially having no allies in Europe, the French agree to attend a bilateral conference with Germany discussing the sovereignty of Morocco, to be held in August in the city of Algeciras
March: Protests in Moscow and St Petersburg number in the hundreds of thousands. Russian soldiers begin defecting to the Soviets
March: Russia sues for peace. Tsar Nicholas II and his close advisors travel to Liverpool for peace negotiations, hoping that his presence would make the British more lenient
April: Battle of Warsaw: Warsaw falls to Polish militias, shattered Russian forces retreat eastwards amid mass desertion
April: Leon Trotsky organises the Soviet Guard, a paramilitary group operating on behalf of the Soviets. It is formed primarily from defecting soldiers and officers from the former Tsarist army
April: Treaty of Liverpool: Despite the Tsar’s wishes, Britain and Japan impose a harsh peace on Russia. Some of the more important terms of the Treaty of Liverpool include:
-Russia will acknowledge Korea and Inner Manchuria as part of Japans sphere of influence
-Russia will cede control of Sakhalin and Port Arthur to the Empire of Japan, and abandon her ambitions on China
-Vladivostok will be demilitarised for 10 years
-Russia will pay 10 million pounds to Japan and Great Britain in war reparations
-Russia will fully compensate the families of those lost in the Battle of Dogger Bank
-Russia will limit its Far Eastern Fleet to one capital ship, as well as escorts
-Russia will abandon its ambitions on Persia, Afghanistan and the Ottoman Empire
May: The May Revolution: The Tsar is refused re-entry to St Petersburg upon his return from peace negotiations in Liverpool. The Soviet Guard under Trotsky storms the winter palace and arrests government officials still loyal to the Tsar. The Soviet Republic of Russia is proclaimed by Julius Martov and Leon Trotsky. Elections for the new Peoples Duma are scheduled for July. Crucially, the Provisional government refuses to negotiate nor acknowledge the various separatist groups fighting within the former Tsarist Russia
May: The Russian Royal family flees to Germany, where they find refuge in the royal court of Kaiser Wilhelm II. Tsar Nicholas II does not relinquish his claim to the Russian throne
May: Vladimir Lenin arrives in Moscow from Switzerland
May: Finland declares independence and begins fighting the provisional government
May: First Battle of Kiev: Kiev falls to Ukrainian separatists with minimal resistance due to the chaos caused by the revolution
June: Battle of Brest: Polish militias drive towards Brest in an effort to take the city before the Provisional Government consolidates their power
June: Ukrainian forces, following their victory in Kiev, cross the river Dnieper and advance eastward. They quickly take Poltava and Zaporizhia
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I think it’s going to be a lot more complicated than “public opinion turns firmly against the Emperor”. Here are some suggestions:
The army is going to hate the Navy’s guts for starting the war, and the Emperor for continuing it. They’ll want to take charge themselves and “do it right”. Expect a lot of Cossack warlords.
The navy has no more power because it’s been obliterated by the Anglo-Japanese Alliance.
The guberiyas will support the status quo but be uncooperative since there will be crippling shortages and they need to look after themselves.
The peasants won’t like conscription but will probably enjoy the fact that the trading towns are collapsing, and with them the government’s ability to enforce constricting laws.
The middle class just wants the suffering to end.
The aristocracy is going to consider replacing Nikolai II, even in exile.
Also if Russian is falling apart like this Ukraine would just win territorial control by default after the Russians evacuate Kiev.
I don’t think the Kaiser would stoop to funding separatists in Russia. On the other hand, he’s not going to actively help the Imperial Government either.
The army is going to hate the Navy’s guts for starting the war, and the Emperor for continuing it. They’ll want to take charge themselves and “do it right”. Expect a lot of Cossack warlords.
The navy has no more power because it’s been obliterated by the Anglo-Japanese Alliance.
The guberiyas will support the status quo but be uncooperative since there will be crippling shortages and they need to look after themselves.
The peasants won’t like conscription but will probably enjoy the fact that the trading towns are collapsing, and with them the government’s ability to enforce constricting laws.
The middle class just wants the suffering to end.
The aristocracy is going to consider replacing Nikolai II, even in exile.
Also if Russian is falling apart like this Ukraine would just win territorial control by default after the Russians evacuate Kiev.
I don’t think the Kaiser would stoop to funding separatists in Russia. On the other hand, he’s not going to actively help the Imperial Government either.