Don't remember who escalated the Belfort Incident, but it apparently surrounds a backdrop of the French still pursuing Morocco, which seems foolish under the circumstances.
TL: The War of Dogger Bank, or the Anglo-Russian War- Version 1 DISCONTINUED
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Don't remember who escalated the Belfort Incident, but it apparently surrounds a backdrop of the French still pursuing Morocco, which seems foolish under the circumstances.
France probably thought they could just back down if Deutscheland pushed the issue. They were wrong and Deutscheland declared war (unless I read it wrong).
FillyofDelphi
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Sure, among Moscow and the revolutionary elite. The question is if they can get the distant, disconnected (Poor railway and communications in Russia in 1905), and only loosely re-knit together country to go along with their plan. As I mentioned before, the speed of their success over such a large and poorly developed country is as much a vulnerability as an asset, especially since they haven't had as long to get solidified into their new leading position.
The traditional forces did not have much power and only came to power in 1918 IOTL due to German support, military power (due to WWI obviously), and extreme incompetence by the socialists. I think Hrushevsky (assuming he is President of Ukraine, he is the best choice for this time) would not be so stupid as to disband the army, but the army would also not be so large nor so loyal. It should be noted that Ukraine would be more of Austria's sphere than Germany's. Austria contains its own large and extremely loyal Ukrainian population. It would Austria to which the new Ukrainian government is primarily aligned.
Poland would also be more Austrian influenced, they'd probably receive Archduke Charles Stephan as their King eventually. His youngest son, Vasyl, in my opinion, will still become Ukrainianized and still be estranged from his father and older brother. He might leave and go to Ukraine and enter the military there. The moderate Hrushevsky, might, if he decides to enter in to a good relationship with the A-H and Germany try and have him crowned as King as almost happened IOTL. This would guarantee Austrian and probably German support in case Russia tried to conquer newly independent Ukraine. IOTL Vasyl was fairly "red" so it would only upset the most radical of the socialists.
OTOH, with Russia out France really only has an option to acquire glory in colonial lands - and those were still getting scarce by 1905.
I think it could work - France's probe towards Morocco would probably be more careful than OTL first Moroccan crisis, but it could still provide the spark Germany needs to push hard. Germany in the process might push so hard that France needs to at least act in a wary fashion, fortifying the border more seriously, risking a general confrontation.
The Treaty of Brussels
An here's the next update!
The Treaty of Brussels
With the French capitulation, peace talks were held in Brussels, Belgium on the 2nd of February 1906. Germany had entered the talks with the aim of punishing France severely for their perceived “role” in causing the war. However much to their chagrin, Great Britain arrived in full diplomatic support of the defeated French, and completely opposed German demands, including but not limited to the ceding of Lorraine to Germany, the annexation of Luxembourg to Germany, extensive reparations from France and the annexation of substantial French colonies in Africa and Asia.
The peace talks nearly fell apart and war breaking out between Great Britain and Germany but calmer heads prevailed. The launching of the HMS Dreadnought exposed how outclassed the High Seas Fleet was, while many in the British Government saw the German Heer as unbeatable. Eventually, after much negotiation, the Treaty of Brussels was signed on the 30 March with the following terms:
- France is to cede Longwy-Briey to Germany.
- The rest of French Lorraine is to be demilitarise
- France is to accept full responsibility for the war
- Morocco is to retain independence
- France is to cede French Cameroon, Gabon, French Congo and Madagascar to Germany
- Indochina is to be split between Great Britain, Germany and Japan
- France is to pay the sum of 800 million pounds to Germany
Along with other clauses.
The treaty of Brussels effectively strengthened Germanys grip on the continent while France was finished as a great power for the next years. However, the Treaty also highlighted the growing opposition to German hegemony by Great Britain, and the beginnings of an anti-German coalition were beginning to show.
The Treaty of Brussels
With the French capitulation, peace talks were held in Brussels, Belgium on the 2nd of February 1906. Germany had entered the talks with the aim of punishing France severely for their perceived “role” in causing the war. However much to their chagrin, Great Britain arrived in full diplomatic support of the defeated French, and completely opposed German demands, including but not limited to the ceding of Lorraine to Germany, the annexation of Luxembourg to Germany, extensive reparations from France and the annexation of substantial French colonies in Africa and Asia.
The peace talks nearly fell apart and war breaking out between Great Britain and Germany but calmer heads prevailed. The launching of the HMS Dreadnought exposed how outclassed the High Seas Fleet was, while many in the British Government saw the German Heer as unbeatable. Eventually, after much negotiation, the Treaty of Brussels was signed on the 30 March with the following terms:
- France is to cede Longwy-Briey to Germany.
- The rest of French Lorraine is to be demilitarise
- France is to accept full responsibility for the war
- Morocco is to retain independence
- France is to cede French Cameroon, Gabon, French Congo and Madagascar to Germany
- Indochina is to be split between Great Britain, Germany and Japan
- France is to pay the sum of 800 million pounds to Germany
Along with other clauses.
The treaty of Brussels effectively strengthened Germanys grip on the continent while France was finished as a great power for the next years. However, the Treaty also highlighted the growing opposition to German hegemony by Great Britain, and the beginnings of an anti-German coalition were beginning to show.
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In regards to the crisis, the French moves on Morocco were instigated by French Foreign Minister Theophile Delcasse (who believed that in doing so the French position against Germany would be strengthened) and was not fully advocated by the rest of the French Government. Further, media had a massive part in escalating the crisis, as newspapers on both sides shouted for war regardless of its consequences
Also guys, I am currently unsure on what path France will now take in TTL and I would like to hear your thoughts on what should happen to France!
One idea - albeit clichéd - is the revanchist right spearheading the restoration of the monarchy. What monarchy depends on the right's ideology: if they base things on an appeal to tradition it'd be the Kings, and probably a very Catholic, very aristocratic, very reactionary regime. If, on the other hand, it's something more akin to Fascism - IE 'modern, meritocratic' dictatorship, then you'd probably see the Bonapartes coming back. It all depends who comes out on top in the internal struggles for power and whose ideology wins through.
France needs to recognize their problems, the French Republics have been incredibly unstable.
Maybe follow Russia's example? French and Russian relations will only grow from now on and Russia has gone through the same thing already, so it only makes sense for France to look at their ally.
Strong economic links to Russia and focus on Internal development. Kinda isolationist mentality would make sense. All in All introspection on national level is what I'm seeing.
Maybe follow Russia's example? French and Russian relations will only grow from now on and Russia has gone through the same thing already, so it only makes sense for France to look at their ally.
Strong economic links to Russia and focus on Internal development. Kinda isolationist mentality would make sense. All in All introspection on national level is what I'm seeing.
I would have thought that an obvious lesson France would draw is that it needs friends with a big stick against Germany. That basically comes down to Britain, which is almost certainly going to want to haul Germany back down. Germany dominant on the continent is not in Britain's interests. Germany dominant on the continent is not in France's interests.
Germany's obvious big problem is geography. If Britain is on board, the German coast is at risk; the east needs to be put under pressure. Russia has not proven to be that great an ally, so maybe looking at the likes of Poland, Italy and Turkey to apply pressure on Germany/Austria. I think, by the point, the prospect of separating Germany and Austria are remote.
Internally, there will probably be a period of finger pointing to determine who was to blame, with whoever ends up being able to shift the blame most effectively ending up on top. Toss a coin as to whether that's far right nationalist; far left; highly religious; internationalists; monarchists; military leaders. You might need a coin with a lot of sides.
Since Germany has picked up a number of colonies, the obvious first card to play is that of British twitchiness over threats to its Empire. With Madagascar in German hands, the long route to India is under threat, and Britain will notice. Splitting up Indochina is going to lead to potential for trouble.
Militarily, there are a number of lessons might learn. Germany is likely to stagnate. What they did worked beyond their wildest dreams, and "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" applied then as much as now. France, however, is probably going to start looking for force multipliers of some form.
Germany's obvious big problem is geography. If Britain is on board, the German coast is at risk; the east needs to be put under pressure. Russia has not proven to be that great an ally, so maybe looking at the likes of Poland, Italy and Turkey to apply pressure on Germany/Austria. I think, by the point, the prospect of separating Germany and Austria are remote.
Internally, there will probably be a period of finger pointing to determine who was to blame, with whoever ends up being able to shift the blame most effectively ending up on top. Toss a coin as to whether that's far right nationalist; far left; highly religious; internationalists; monarchists; military leaders. You might need a coin with a lot of sides.
Since Germany has picked up a number of colonies, the obvious first card to play is that of British twitchiness over threats to its Empire. With Madagascar in German hands, the long route to India is under threat, and Britain will notice. Splitting up Indochina is going to lead to potential for trouble.
Militarily, there are a number of lessons might learn. Germany is likely to stagnate. What they did worked beyond their wildest dreams, and "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" applied then as much as now. France, however, is probably going to start looking for force multipliers of some form.
It is. The lost of Briey-Longwy is going to reduce France to being the same kind of power as Italy is. A Great Power, but just barely.
They are, as you said, a bit clichéd. How about France going technocratic in an attempt to build a society to beat Germany in Round 3? It'd at least be a bit different.
Say a highly regimented, meritocratic society that embraces education and technology, rationalism and central planning, to even out Germany's advantages in population and industry.
Why would France need to cede Cameroon to Germany - Germany already owns it. France only took control after OTL WW1. Benin (or French Dahomey) to extend German Togoland would make more sense.
Honestly the use of modern terms really throws the update IMO. I agree French Dahomey would be picked up by the Germans. Also the French Congo and more than likely Ubangi-Shari(Roughly what modern day Central African Republic) to help fill out German Middle Africa. The use of French Congo and Gabon really throws the update off.
Further how is Indochina split between Germany, the British and Japan? I doubt that the British would be big on this. Further the Germans are most likely to take the French treaty port in China than Indochina. Plus Germany would want to expand into Pacific at the cost of the French.
Easy: Britain and Japan take Vietnam and Cambodia, and leave German territory sandwiched between 'em as a pointed message
It's interesting that the British, by acting as an ally of France at the peace conference, managed to take some of France's territory.