0. The Introduction
A very large thank you to both @RedKing and @Cate13 who discussed my TL with me and helped me sort out how the family tree will end up. Some of the beautiful chaos going forward can definitely be attributed to some of their ideas :)

TL/PoD: what if Elizabeth of York and Henry VII's children had the same survival rate from infancy as the children of Elizabeth Woodville and Edward IV (80%).

- I am going off of the basis that Elizabeth of York and Henry VII had eight children (I am aware the existence of Edward Tudor is highly disputed and deemed unlikely but I will be believing in his existence for this TL). 80% of 8 is 6.4. You can't have half a person, so I will be rounding that up to 7 out of their 8 children surviving. Though that is very high for the Medieval standard, as asserted above it is the same survival rate as Elizabeth Woodville and EIV's children and follows the example of EoY's grandmother Jacquetta of Luxembourg as well.
- yes, as I say 8 that means that Katherine Tudor will still be born. However, rather than a child born out of need for a male heir in 1503, she is instead an 'oops' baby born in 1505. As this TL begins in 1502, you will not see her yet.
- the existence of the younger children will butterfly away the death of Arthur Tudor, Prince of Wales, as will be seen below.



March 1502, Whitehall Palace

The feast for the fourth nameday of Prince Edward Tudor was most joyous, having begun with the bestowing of the Dukedom of Bedford upon the young boy. He had not received a title previously, despite his younger brother receiving the Dukedom of Somerset, due to his weak constitution for the first two years of his life which now appeared to have never existed.

Though the court was more than pleased to celebrate yet another healthy and robust child of their King and Queen, more were craning their heads desperately to get a glimpse of the Prince and Princess of Wales.

The young Prince and his wife were supposed to have been sent to Wales, but the boy had insisted on being there to see 'young Ned' receive his Dukedom. Somewhat reluctantly, the King had allowed it, though he was determined that the royal couple should head to Ludlow before summer was upon them. It was said that it was Queen Elizabeth whose words had made him waiver. Her own family had been close and the agony of losing her brothers - especially little Dickon - near unbearable, and she wanted her own children to have a similar bond.

The court found the Prince and Princess of Wales to be a most handsome couple. They were well-liked by their peers, even though the Spanish Infanta who was now named Princess Katherine could only commune with those who spoke Spanish, as she had not yet learned English nor their version of Latin.

Despite this language barrier, the couple were remarked to appear fond of one another. Their arms remained linked for the entirety of their time standing, and their hands would clasp one another's above the table when sitting.

The King's mother, the Lady Margaret Beaufort, did not seem approving of the overt affection, while the Queen Consort regarded the couple warmly. She hoped for happy marriages for all her children, even if the reality was that it was not often the way of the world.

Such thoughts brought Queen Elizabeth's gaze over to her eldest daughter, Margaret, and her second son, Henry. Her daughter would be wed to Scotland next year to complete the Treaty of Perpetual Peace, while her husband sought a French noblewoman's hand for Henry. He had his eyes set on either Marguerite of Angouleme or Anne de La Tour d'Auvergne.

Elizabeth of York was quite certain that, should his negotiations succeed, it would be Marguerite who would become the Duchess of York. The Queen could not see France agreeing to hand over an heiress, and the younger de La Tour girl was just three years old compared to Henry's nearly eleven. Not as large an age gap as the Queen and her own husband, but still somewhat impractical when there was another French noblewoman of a suitable age, who was the sister of the current heir presumptive of France and daughter of the politically astute Louise of Savoy.

Her Henry, though a handsome and charming boy, could be impulsive and reckless. Elizabeth could see a daughter of Louise of Savoy tempering that somewhat, or at least being intelligent to ensure that such energy was focused in the right direction. Her heart clenched, however, when she thought of young Margaret's marriage to a man over a decade and a half her senior. She hoped the King of Scots would be good to her dear, wilful girl.

Her younger sons (Edward and Edmund) and daughters (Elizabeth and Mary) did not have matches yet, though she was sure her husband would be quick to arrange them. All she knew for now was that he was looking towards furthering relations with the Holy Roman Empire, and that he wanted one of the younger boys to be Lieutenant of Ireland, and perhaps to send the other to Calais. King Henry would do everything in his power to ensure that dear Arthur would inherit as stable and powerful an England as he could.

Another dance was announced, and most of the royal court rose up. Elizabeth of York watched as Arthur and Katherine took to the floor with large smiles, as Henry was dragged up by her eager Lisabet, and as five-year old Mary and three-year-old Edmund engaged in a clumsy imitation of a dance with one another, the newly invested Duke of Bedford watching on with wide eyes.

It was so like court had been when she was young, that the Queen's heart clenched and dread took to her stomach. The wheel of fortune was ever changing, after all, and all that she could do was beseech God that none of her family would be crushed beneath it.
 
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Family Tree 1502
Family Tree (as of 1502) - so no Katherine Tudor yet, who will be the child who dies in infancy in line with the 80% survival rate:

Henry VII
(1457-) m. Elizabeth of York (1466-) (a)
1a. Arthur, Prince of Wales (1486-) m. Infanta Catalina of Aragon and Castile
2a. Margaret Tudor (1489-) bet. James IV of Scotland
3a. Henry, Duke of York (1491-)
4a. Elizabeth Tudor (1492-)
5a. Mary Tudor (1496-)
6a. Edward, Duke of Bedford (1498-
7a. Edmund , Duke of Somerset (1499-)

EDIT: incorrect birthdate
 
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Well, helloooooooo.

I noticed you changed Elizabeth from 1492 to 1494. Any reason?

Also, historically, Edward is older than Edmund since the note about Katherine's burial mentions that Edward had died "four years earlier" (i.e c. 1499, when Edmund was born.)
 
Well, helloooooooo.

I noticed you changed Elizabeth from 1492 to 1494. Any reason?
Reason: my own idiocy 😂 Changing it now.


Also, historically, Edward is older than Edmund since the note about Katherine's burial mentions that Edward had died "four years earlier" (i.e c. 1499, when Edmund was born.)
Oh is he? In my research it came up that Edward was suppose to have been born 1499/1500

As Edmund is born Feb 1499, I could do Irish twins so it’s Dec 1499 for Edward?

EDIT: just had a look around and I can’t find my original source. I’ve planned around the birth order now and have grown quite attached to them as characters, so I’ll leave it as it is but acknowledge the error in my next post. Thank you for pointing it out.

EDIT 2: I ended up changing the birthdates around because the inaccuracy was stressing me out lmao.
 
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Oh is he? In my research it came up that Edward was suppose to have been born 1499/1500
Historical Memorials of Westminster Abbey by Arthur Penryn Stanley (page 281-282): ''His infant daughter Elizabeth, aged three years and two months, was buried, with great pomp, in a small tomb at the feet of Henry III. His infant son, Edward, who died four years afterward (1499), was also buried in the Abbey. The first grave in the new Chapel was that of his wife, Elizabeth of York. She died in giving birth to a child who survived but a short time."

So it seems Edward is about 1498 and died in 1499.
 
Historical Memorials of Westminster Abbey by Arthur Penryn Stanley (page 281-282): ''His infant daughter Elizabeth, aged three years and two months, was buried, with great pomp, in a small tomb at the feet of Henry III. His infant son, Edward, who died four years afterward (1499), was also buried in the Abbey. The first grave in the new Chapel was that of his wife, Elizabeth of York. She died in giving birth to a child who survived but a short time."

So it seems Edward is about 1498 and died in 1499.

Thank you! You know what, I’ll just change the birthdates around because otherwise the inaccuracy will annoy me 😂
 
This will definitely be interesting, I can't wait to read how a strong Tudor dynasty affects future religious conflicts to come.

PS: I hope Ferdinand inherits Castile and Aragon instead of Charles.
 
1. July 1502
EDIT: a few changes have been made to the family tree. I had put in Edward as being born in 1500 when he was actually born in 1498, that is now rectified so the order for the boys goes - Arthur, Henry, Edward and Edmund. Also, I’d somehow managed to put down Elizabeth Tudor’s birthday as 1494 when it’s 1492. Apologies and thank you to @Tudorfan for pointing it out

July 1502
Whitehall Palace


“It is done,” the King of England proclaims to his wife, kissing her head before taking his own seat for their private dinner. “Our Henry will marry Marguerite d’Angoulême in four years time. The betrothal will be officiated by proxy next month.”

The Queen hummed in response, inwardly very pleased at the outcome. Young Marguerite was reputed to be intelligent and rather beautiful.

“What of our other children?” The red-blonde haired Queen asked idly, taking a sip of the fine, French wine in the goblet before her.

“A daughter as Queen of united Spain or Holy would please me,” her husband said. “And heiresses for our boys, of course. I thought of the Church for one of them, but I’m afraid none have the disposition.”

Indeed, the son with the best disposition for the Church was Arthur, their heir. Perhaps after that it would be Edward, but the boy still had many years for his personality to evolve and change.

As of now, the boy was nothing like his namesake and grandfather, whose personality could be seen far more predominantly in Henry and even giggly little Edmund.

Her voice quieter this time, the Queen asked, “and how goes the preparations for Margaret to go to Scotland?”

The King eyed her with some wariness. He was well aware his wife did not want to bid their eldest daughter goodbye, as she would have to do to all the girls at some point.

“They go well,” he said . “She will be bringing a large retinue of England ladies with her, so that she will not be alone.”

Queen Elizabeth nodded. She supposed that was the best she could hope for.

Her husband sighed, and reached for her hand. The Queen gave it to him.

“She will be fine, my Queen,” the King told her, squeezing her hand tightly. “She will be treated well there; Queen of her own country.”

Elizabeth of York did not voice her disagreement with his last comment. It would not be her country, it would be her husband’s, just as England was Henry’s. But she had long stopped being bitter of such a fact.

There was a loud knock on their chamber doors, which the King nodded to be opened. When they were left wide, an excited herald made his way through, practically bouncing.

Elizabeth raised a brow, whilst her husband demanded: “out with it then.”

“There is news from Ludlow,” the young man said, smiling from ear to ear. “The Princess of Wales is with child.”

~•~•~•~•~•~

Ludlow Castle

Infanta Catalina of Aragon and Castile was uncertain how to feel.

Of course, when she had realised that her courses had not come for at least eight weeks, she had been elated at the success. But that didn’t change the fact that she was in a foreign country, with so few of her ladies (courtesy of the King’s Mother), unable to properly converse with her husband.

English tutors had been hired for her, of course, and her writing was coming on leaps and bounds, though her speaking was progressing slower.

Her and her husband could not hold any kind of complex conversation, and yet they were going to become parents.

She sucked in a deep breath at the thought.

After the physician had visited her, Arthur speedily made his way back to his rooms, intent on informing his mother and father of their news.
Catalina, or Katherine as she was now called, had remained behind. The only person she wanted right now was her mother, and yet thinking of her pained the Princess.

Her own mother had lost two children before they had even breathed air into their lungs, and then two more to childbed and sickness.

Catalina herself had witnessed her mother’s agony at the deaths of Juan and Isabella, and could not imagine having to cope with that herself.
One hand moved down to caress her stomach, eyes closing so that she may pray to God.

Let my child be a son for England, she beseeched, let him be healthy and hearty and kind, let me be spared from the agony of losing him.
 
@Rose’s War, will Philip the Handsome live longer and actually reign as HRE? It could smooth the transaction between the split of the inheritance between his sons.

Butterflies… they’re so unpredictable ;)

Tbh I could make that work. Is there any chance you’d be open to discuss the possible effect this could have through PMs? I must admit, I’m not as knowledgable about this time period in Spain and the HRE as I would like to be.
 
Me too. So that way Charles can focus all his attention to the HRE.
OTL Ferdinand wasn't even born yet in 1502, he was born in march 1503, so depending on the POD in 1502 he could still have been conceived though. Not sure how Charles would react on his younger brother stealing his birthright in Castille & Aragon, but at the very least I don't see him willing to cede any Imperial territory, so neither the Austrian Hereditary Lands, nor the Burgundian Lands.
Like Charles V IOTL Ferdinand would have been entitled to a bit of the Austrian Hereditary Lands, but as a first step to reconciliation (which will be harder ITTL than IOTL) I can see Ferdinand ceding his share of the Austrian Hereditary Lands to Charles.
 
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