TL: The Imperial Evolution (a stronger Commonwealth)

Devvy

Donor
1983: A Commonwealth task force is created with several representatives from different companies and countries to formulate a common standard for mobile communications after further rival standards are independently under development. Agreements on the dedicated use of a single technology type for use across the entire Commonwealth is agreed upon, with standardised frequencies and number formatting. In later years, the standardisation brings about a consistent user experience across the entire Commonwealth, with mobile phones easily working across different countries and seamless roaming between networks. The integrated digital network allows both voice and egram usage directly from the handset from the early days, under the "Commons v1" standard - COMmonwealth MObile Network Standards".

Zaire descends into a second civil war. Katanga Province, emboldened by a strong defence, declares itself independent, with the crisis in Zaire none of it's business. Politics in Katanga is quickly defined as to whether you are pro-independent or pro-Zaire, and pro-Zaire groups become increasingly militant in their methods despite being in the minority. The region (along with the country) plunges into instability, causing many worried politicians across the borders in East and Central Africa, and a steady stream of refugees becoming visible in Lusaka and Mbeya. Many head for Mbeya, mainly for linguistic reasons, as speakers of Swahili.

The Bolshevik manage to put a man on the moon. The long running Buran programme heralds the "Buran 9" flight, which puts a Bolshevik lander on the moon, staffed by 2 cosmonauts while 2 continue in lunar orbit. The move brings surprise in the United States, seeing another country emulate their achievements in landing men on the lunar surface (and returning successfully), and a famous picture of the Bolshevik flag placed alongside the US flag rapidly becomes one of those "iconic" pictures of time. The US has an incumbent President who is slashing funding for many federal programmes in order to attempt to balance the books however, and the NASA budget receives stringent cuts to it's previous budgetary funding.

The Commonwealth Chief Minister officially designates as India, Sri Lanka, Nepal and the United States as "Strategic Allies", opening up a reduction in tariffs between the countries. The move is generally popular amongst business, as it brings the prospect of increased trade and sales, but is generally less favoured by small businesses who are fearful of domination by more large multinational corporations.

The 1983 British General Election occurs, with the emergence of the Social Democratic Party cemented as the undisputed 3rd power in the House of Commons, although with the Conservative Party winning a slim majority. Amongst notable results is the election in Cornwall of David Treffry, formally an independent member but closely affiliated with the Cornish Home Party, who press for Cornish Home Nation status alongside Wales, Scotland, Ireland & Ulster.

1984: Elizabeth and Michael marry in London, in front of thousands of well wishers, and with royal pageantry on show at every turn. Symbolically, there is also a large wedding party a month later in Sydney as well, paying homage to Australia as the birthplace of the new royalty. King William bestows the title "Duke and Duchess of Sussex", which rapidly becomes their preferred names, although other honours from many of the Commonwealth Realms are awarded. Princess Elizabeth is finally the next in line to the throne, following Line of Succession Acts passing in most of the relevant realms (with a few promising to have finished passing Acts by the end of 1985), making the prospect of an Australian becoming the partner of the reigning Queen. Most senior people seem to be of the mind to make him a Prince, similar to Prince Albert, husband of Queen Victoria in years past (although Albert was technically Prince Consort).

Commonwealth members agree to working towards cuts in greenhouse gases, and being more environmentally friendly; largely pushed by the European, Canadian & Australian political voices. Members agree to work towards more recycling and better public transport. US-Canadian relations take a down turn, following harsh criticism of the proposed customs union. British backing is fervent; the high population of the "Home Islands" but love of the green rolling hills of England (and other Home Nations) provides strong public support for environmentalism and green policies in the UK.

Katanga makes overtures towards Commonwealth East Africa and Central Africa for recognition. Heart strings are tugged in East Africa for their fellow Swahili speaking brothers, and in Central Africa where Zambia has been affected by turmoil upon it's borders. The deepening civil war in Zaire causing a rift in Commonwealth foreign policy; some are wary of being dragged into another Somalia operation, but the Africans are hugely in favour of recognition and intervention in support of Katanga. By the end of the year, East Africa and Central Africa both recognise the "transitional state of Katanga" - effectively giving their backing to Katangan independence.

Oil and gas begins to flow in to the Commonwealth from the North Sea, "complementing" the Arabian oil reserves. The discovery makes the Commonwealth collectively the world's largest exporter (and consumer) of oil.

The Nordic Kingdoms jointly announce they will enter a unified team for the 1987 Football World Cup in Italy, and at the top level unify the Scandinavian football league system (Iceland remaining out due to incompatibilities; Iceland is far removed from Scandinavia and the football season runs through the summer instead) to form a Scandinavian 1st and 2nd division. The 1980s are a time when television is pushing it's way into every facet of life, and football stadium attendance figures are dwindling across the United Kingdom. Some begin to think about emulating the Nordic move; it hasn't helped that the 1983 World Cup in Brazil was the first since the Home Nations rejoined FIFA where none qualified for the tournament. Many of the bigger teams in England are in favour of such a move; Arsenal, Everton, Leeds, Newcastle United, Manchester United, Nottingham Forest, West Ham United and Wimbledon (the so-called "Group of 8") were the biggest advocates for a new league.

1985: The Commonwealth endorses it's own flag, based upon the design of the British Union Flag. It is an excerpt of the flag, featuring the top left corner - a blue background with a white and red diagonal line through it. Some deride it as a continuing symbol of British colonialism, but many see it as a flag on it's own merit with a nod to the roots of the Commonwealth. Either way, despite the lack of any real centralisation of power (the Commonwealth remains primarily an intergovernmental institution), the Commonwealth is rapidly forging it's own identity in international relations.

Canada's high speed rail and new hub airport at Montreal (Montreal-Mitterand Airport after the late Quebecois politician who died from a heart attack during his time in the Quebecois Government. Mitterand was one of the most public immigrants to Quebec from France in the 1940s). Dominion Airways immediately divert London-Canada flights to use the new airport, and the route is served by daily Clipper services from London - reflecting the ability to serve both the large Montreal city, and the Ottawa federal capital markets. Francair and many other larger airlines slowly follow suit as the previous city centre location is run down, with plans afoot to renovate it into a new business district for Montreal as spillover space from the very crowded downtown area in Ville-Marie.

The UK, France and the Nordics sign into being a full customs union and passport union, named the "Jersey Agreement" due to being signed in the British Channel Islands. All monies collected in customs and import duties are sent into a central fund, administered by the Government Offices in Belfast, with the proceeds being divided between the French, British & Nordic Governments proportionally according to population. The move also brought around a new pillar of immigration officials; a third of the immigration officials in each force would rotate around the other country's external border points in order to operate as a form of mutual oversight and build trust - especially needed in France due to the long eastern border and many crisscrossing roads. Canada would remain apart for the moment, choosing instead to enforce it's borders; many suspected quiet but severe diplomatic pressure upon Canadian officials by their American counterparts.

The promotion of Bolshevik politician Leonid Gromyko to Premier of the Central Committee brings a slightly reformist point of view to the high echelons of Bolshevik leadership. Gromyko would embrace further openness in the Bolshevik Republics; a certain tolerance for independent candidates in elections (which were traditionally only filled with Bolshevik candidates), a more independent judicial system - although still on a tight rein of control, and better entrenched gender equality. The first moves towards a redesign of the central Bolshevik Constitution would also be made, enabling further moves into a market economy; the enabling of property trading was a widely popular move, although price controls and controls over ownership remained.

The elections in 1985 in both Colombia and Venezuela returned highly left wing candidates, beginning the slide towards communism for both countries. Security concerns, unstable governments and rampant crime all combined for the election swing; both countries would be considered to have Bolshevik affiliations by the end of the decade, and would cause significant problems in the emerging Hispanic integration movements.
 

Devvy

Donor
More like TTL's version of fascimile.

A question about the Commons v1 - is the egram/e-gram (electronic telegram?) this timeline's version of OTL's e-mail?

A bit of both (sorry if the below gets super-technical!)...

Because the earlier dedication of submarine communication cables to telegrams, a telegram network still exists (see 195...3 I think). It's stayed in place in the face of telephone competition because it offers a cheaper and easier way of communicating around the globe; my vision in the early days was that the local post office would receive the telegram, and then forward to the recipient. Either way; the backbone of this is a packet-switched network, relying on what we would consider telephone numbers for addressing (rather then IP addresses).

Over time, this has evolved, and has been built on top of by universities who have used the same mechanisms for transferring data between sites. It's by now been embraced for businesses for transferring data between sites, and richer houses now have their own connection into it.

So think of this TL "egram" kind of like a email that's addressed for your house, a cross between an email and a fax. Spam won't exist in this TL, because it's easily trackable where exactly unsolicited mails have come from; but equally there's no direct anonymity.

I don't envisage any direct version of the world wide web in this TL; a person could use an early computer to send/receive egrams, and probably use some text application to gather information from a company (ie. the company would publish their "Interlink number" early on before name addressing), and then you could use that number to connect on your computer to get information in a very "Ceefax" style.

Can we have a map for this TL?

And a map for the Commonwealth, at 1985. The borders are rough, but it should give you a pretty decent look at the world (apologies for the size!).

1980smap.jpg


Pink: Commonwealth Communities Members
Yellow: "Greater Commonwealth" (formally or not)
 
This is a very good timeline, but a few things that struck me:

- I haven't managed to read the whole thing, but I find what's happening to the Kingdom of Arabia very unlikely. How on Earth are a very devout Muslim people going to feel about their Caliph acknowledging the King of the UK as a superior? It would likely cause huge discontent against what would be seen as a puppet King. In addition, according to the borders in your map, the oil fields almost entirely fall in the Saudi Kingdom's land and their territorial waters.

- While Scandinavia in the club is just about doable, I can't see France ever accepting membership of a British-led club. It would be an acknowledgment of subservience to their great historical rival for a very proud people. It would be even harder given how strongly republican the population is.

- I can't see East Africa or Central Africa accepting being British-aligned in a scenario where the British are tolerating apartheid in South Africa and Rhodesia. Apartheid and the fight against the white man was the driving political issue across Africa for decades after independence. Consider this: in many African countries today it's very harmful to African politicians in places like Nigeria and Kenya to have a secondary British nationality, as that is seen as selling out to former colonial masters.

- Does open immigration exist across the Commonwealth? By this time there would be huge population flows to richer countries from developing nations. In the UK in our timeline, these flows were cut off in the early 1960s and there were still race riots in the 1980s. There's likely to be even more animosity if the non-white populations are 2-3 times higher and still coming.
 
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Devvy

Donor
This is a very good timeline, but a few things that struck me:

- I haven't managed to read the whole thing, but I find what's happening to the Kingdom of Arabia very unlikely. How on Earth are a very devout Muslim people going to feel about their Caliph acknowledging the King of the UK as a superior? It would likely cause huge discontent against what would be seen as a puppet King. In addition, according to the borders in your map, the oil fields almost entirely fall in the Saudi Kingdom's land and their territorial waters.

Cheers for the feedback! :)

To clarify, while I pondered some supranational crown authority when the Commonwealth was still just what we'd OTL call the White Commonwealth, that's been left to the side. I've endeavoured to keep the Commonwealth with no supranational authority; it can't order the Arabian King/Caliph (whatever you want to call him) around. The Caliph is the head of state, be all and end all, in Arabia. The Commonwealth Community passes regulations (let's say about electrical socket configuration and voltage); Arabian Government passes into domestic law because that's in their interest and if they don't they will probably be suspended from the Commonwealth. Kind of a cross between the OTL EU (for which much of EU law is enacted by the national Parliaments) and the OTL Commonwealth (where the Queen is the symbol of unity/partnership, but does not have any authority from her position as leader of the Commonwealth). So in this TL; King William is "Leader of the Commonwealth" - meaning he opens and closes CHOGM meetings (like OTL), but has no de jure or de facto power or authority over it's members (apart from those where he is separately head of state, a la UK, Canada et al).

- While Scandinavia in the club is just about doable, I can't see France ever accepting membership of a British-led club. It would be an acknowledgment of subservience to their great historical rival for a very proud people. It would be even harder given how strongly republican the population is.

Denmark and Norway were so tightly tied to the UK economy, that they joined EFTA, and then joined the EEC/EU when the UK did. Norway considered using the UK£ after WW2, so strong was their tie to the UK (although UK refused to OK it). Here, the Bolshevik (Soviet) threat is in Finland, which has pushed the Nordic group into the arms of the Commonwealth Community with it's mutual defence.

As for France; it apparently applied to join the UK on the basis of UK-Irish relations (in CTA, effectively joint citizenship) and after that refusal, asked to join the Commonwealth - in OTL. In this TL, they've been bashed by the Germans more, leading to a greater French reliance on their links with the UK (and trade with them). Also OTL, the Commonwealth is more cultural (and a little political), so France doesn't fit. In this TL, the Commonwealth is an economic partnership foremost, with significant cultural similarities; France can be brought in. Like above, France doesn't have to accept British overlordship - the President is still sovereign, but the benefits of a Commonwealth allied defence against the Germans, and free trade to boost it's economy is a powerful draw. OTL, France accepted slowly passing parts of it's sovereignty into the EU; I don't see why it can't be the same here for the Commonwealth.

- I can't see East Africa or Central Africa accepting being British-aligned in a scenario where the British are tolerating apartheid in South Africa and Rhodesia. Apartheid and the fight against the white man was the driving political issue across Africa for decades after independence. Consider this: in many African countries today it's very harmful to African politicians in places like Nigeria and Kenya to have a secondary British nationality, as that is seen as selling out to former colonial masters.

I agree this for OTL; here the PoD is from WW1. By the times decolonisation starts, massive butterflies have already occurred. The UK has had the money to continue to invest in East and Central Africa (rather then as OTL forming the states and then not following it up with investment). I expect East and Central Africas to ditch William at some point (not sure when yet) for an elected President at some point, but if they are in the Commonwealth under their own merit, then they are considered equals to the UK and everyone else. Just as Kenya remains in the OTL Commonwealth, it remains in this TL Commonwealth - for self gain, free trade. It's benefited from trade with the Commonwealth, mutual assistance during bombings which have occurred, and combined task force for Somalia so far.

South Africa/Zimbabwe apartheid isn't a divisive factor; both were cut loose from the Commonwealth upon refusing to acknowledge equality of citizenship, and then they rapidly left themselves. Note that neither South Africa nor Zimbabwe enjoy "strategic ally" or Greater Commonwealth status here.

- Does open immigration exist across the Commonwealth? By this time there would be huge population flows to richer countries from developing nations. In the UK in our timeline, these flows were cut off in the early 1960s and there were still race riots in the 1980s. There's likely to be even more animosity if the non-white populations are 2-3 times higher and still coming.

Yes; but I expect migration will higher in some areas (London as per OTL), and not so much higher otherwise. As the UK can sustain investing more in it's colonies, migrating out of the ex-colonies becomes less attractive. East Africa has a booming economy, and is home to the Commonwealth Space Agency launch site (as it's so close to the equator).

In OTL; the Poles immigrated in some numbers to the UK for economic reasons after Poland joined the EU. That rapidly levelled off though, as many wanted to stay at home, and following growing investment and growing economy, many Poles have actually returned home.

East Africa will see some emigration, but a better state of the economy by 1950s will see less emigration, and some immigration from the worse-off Central Africa.

With regards to race relations, I fully agree, and expect this TL to be somewhat more conservative (and I actually planned a few bits about the first black footballer in the English team soon) and a bit behind OTL. The UK refuses to define the position of it's direct colonies viz a viz the Commonwealth (ie. can a British colonial subject enjoy free movement to Australia). But the Commonwealth itself has become pretty equal, after the accession of East and Central Africa to the Commonwealth.
 
I've endeavoured to keep the Commonwealth with no supranational authority; it can't order the Arabian King/Caliph (whatever you want to call him) around. The Caliph is the head of state, be all and end all, in Arabia.

I understand the logic in terms of the intellectual framework, but that's simply not how it would be seen by devout Muslims. Think about how British conservatives react to the EU in our timeline, or how fundamentalist Muslims react to the House of Saud's alliance with the United States. In this situation it would be that magnified: not only is it not just a Muslim King, but the Caliph joining a group that acknowledges another monarchy as the head, but they're passing domestic laws based on the say-so of a mainly Christian club. Oh, and the British are taking all the natural resources given to the Arabs by God too! The economic cost-benefit logic of it won't matter. Every law that doesn't pass Islamist muster is going to be used as an example of the fake Caliph selling out Allah's will for kudos with the West.

Denmark and Norway were so tightly tied to the UK economy, that they joined EFTA, and then joined the EEC/EU when the UK did. Norway considered using the UK£ after WW2, so strong was their tie to the UK (although UK refused to OK it). Here, the Bolshevik (Soviet) threat is in Finland, which has pushed the Nordic group into the arms of the Commonwealth Community with it's mutual defence.

I think you're overstating how tied economically they were to the UK in our timeline. It was more about forming a non-EU club to avoid EU centralisation. But, like I said, I think you have just about pulled it off with the Soviet threat here.

As for France; it apparently applied to join the UK on the basis of UK-Irish relations (in CTA, effectively joint citizenship) and after that refusal, asked to join the Commonwealth - in OTL. In this TL, they've been bashed by the Germans more, leading to a greater French reliance on their links with the UK (and trade with them).

What people don't appreciate about the EU in our timeline is that it was initially done with just West Germany, so France was the major power. France saw the European integration as a method to lead the rest of Europe. Later France couldn't really stand in the way of German integration, and it's worked out just about since then because Germany deliberately didn't take the senior role. Now Germany is starting to step up, there is huge antagonism in France - look at the polling for the Front Nationale and Sarkozy's recent comments. In addition, France opted out of the NATO command structure to preserve its military independence from the USA. France just doesn't like playing second fiddle to anyone else, thinking of itself as a great power, and playing second fiddle to the ancient rival is worse than playing second fiddle to anyone else! An economic club is even worse than a cultural club, because France believes in dirigism, state-directed economics, while the rest of the bloc is going to be a free market liberal one. French politicians from right and left have disdained "Anglo-Saxon capitalism" for a very long time.

Oh and France never applied to have a union with the UK. One particularly Anglophilic leader asked about it (and joining the Commonwealth) in private conversations, and it was kept as a state secret since then because of how explosive it would have been politically. French historians have said how shocked they were at the revelation.

The UK has had the money to continue to invest in East and Central Africa (rather then as OTL forming the states and then not following it up with investment). I expect East and Central Africas to ditch William at some point (not sure when yet) for an elected President at some point, but if they are in the Commonwealth under their own merit, then they are considered equals to the UK and everyone else.

Let's be clear that investment in East and Central Africa in the UK was investment in white-owned farms, that had been given to settlers when the natives were pushed off the land. You need a vast difference in British government and societal attitudes to allow for anything different, and your POD isn't early enough. But your other comments (about SA being kicked out - I must have missed it in my skimming) make a fair case for the UK taking a stand on this, so I'm not going to quibble further. But you should be aware this is only going to happen on the basis of an elite doing it, and public discontent being ignored. (That's fine, because African leaders get away with ignoring their public most of the time in OTL, but we should just appreciate it happens.)

Yes; but I expect migration will higher in some areas (London as per OTL), and not so much higher otherwise. As the UK can sustain investing more in it's colonies, migrating out of the ex-colonies becomes less attractive. East Africa has a booming economy, and is home to the Commonwealth Space Agency launch site (as it's so close to the equator).

People on this board often think that big discrepancies can be made up for by minor changes. East Africa at this time is mainly agricultural workers and street hawkers. The area doesn't make sense as an industrial hub - you might get a handful of factories, some operating at a loss - but it's not going to employ more than about 5% of the population. That means an upside scenario is wage growth of about 5% a year. Meanwhile you can increase your wages by about 500% by moving to the UK, plus get better education, healthcare and security. A space agency launch site isn't going to change that much: NASA employs about 20,000 people, and most of them here will need to be skilled white expats brought in. The East African Federation is currently 150 million people. This isn't something you can easily change with "investing a bit more". Societal transformations are really hard things to do, and are especially hard to do in Africa, particularly with a generation of rulers who haven't had much experience and have to deal with mass politics.
You are still going to have vast numbers of poor people, and the longer you keep the door open, more are going to immigrate to the UK.

In OTL; the Poles immigrated in some numbers to the UK for economic reasons after Poland joined the EU. That rapidly levelled off though, as many wanted to stay at home, and following growing investment and growing economy, many Poles have actually returned home.

Firstly, it hasn't levelled off much at all, and vast numbers of Poles are still coming to the UK. Secondly, Poland has benefitted enormously from (a) a huge market right next door in Germany, (b) a very capable governing class that have successfully combatted corruption and improved education and (c) HUGE amounts of US investment during the Cold War and EU investment since the end of it. Thirdly, the wage gap between Poland and the UK was never anywhere near as large as that between East Africa and the UK.

If you look at the history of Western nations, no government has been able to have mass immigration from poor non-white countries for more than about 20 years. Whether you regard their concerns as legitimate or illegitimate, mass public concerns with the matter threatens to upend the political system and governments have had to clamp down as a result.
 
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Devvy

Donor
I understand the logic in terms of the intellectual framework, but that's simply not how it would be seen by devout Muslims. Think about how British conservatives react to the EU in our timeline, or how fundamentalist Muslims react to the House of Saud's alliance with the United States. In this situation it would be that magnified: not only is it not just a Muslim King, but the Caliph joining a group that acknowledges another monarchy as the head, but they're passing domestic laws based on the say-so of a mainly Christian club. Oh, and the British are taking all the natural resources given to the Arabs by God too! The economic cost-benefit logic of it won't matter. Every law that doesn't pass Islamist muster is going to be used as an example of the fake Caliph selling out Allah's will for kudos with the West.

I've based what I thought the probably progression of Commonwealth Arabia (using that name for clarity's sake here) on how Hashemite Jordan progressed. The version of Islam that's emanated from Saudi Arabia OTL isn't going to be as powerful here; you have Commonwealth Arabia (backed by...the Commonwealth) largely facing off against Saudi Arabia (backed by the Bolsheviks - the enemy of my enemy is my friend for both of them, just as Egypt dallied with Soviet backing). The fact that Arabia is largely unified straight after WW1 rather then the carving up, I think leaves less room for conservative Islam as a unifying force (given the repeated failure of political unity in the Middle East). While protocol will need to be careful, as long as the Caliph is treated as an equal then things should be iron outable - but I can see there being some gaffes. For what it's worth, I see the Caliph being seen as the religious leader for Islam...in Arabia, and something along the lines of the custodian of the holy cities. Given background for this Hashemite Caliph, I can see large areas of the Muslim world denying his status of Caliph, but with Arabia he is. I suppose - like everything I write - I'm a serial optimist, and I'd like to think it can work given enough care.

Just like the UK and EU, the position of Commonwealth Arabia to the Commonwealth will largely depend on what's asked of them. I envisage three main pillars to the Commonwealth:

- Free movement (of people and goods) and equality thereof. Immigration isn't going to be a major factor as a major Muslim state, largely Arabic speaking, isn't going to be a major pull factor. I have no problems with a state-owned oil company working in C.Arabia; I can't see how it could be conceived that way if it's an Arabian oil company working and then selling the oil abroad.

- Domestic standards. Unlike the EU and thus UK problems, which tries to legislate on real domestic standards (ie. working hours, bonus taxing), I see this as being things like electrical standards (socket type, 250v mains etc), car crash-worthiness testing, some transport standards (ie. building railways at a certain gauge, or runway specifications), mutual recognition of educational standards, passport standards, etc etc. These are things which the Brits have never had a problem with for the EU, and I can't see any Muslim having a problem with following. They have no real effect on day-to-day life, and are largely strategic.

- Space Agency. Probably funded by a certain amount per head from each country, adjusted up or down based upon the GDP per capita. No Commonwealth country could remotely afford to be a serious player in space unless it's pooled; can't see any reason why this would be controversial. It doesn't even prohibit further national efforts, as long as it's not to the detriment of the Commonwealth efforts.

I don't see any of that interfering on any level with a Commonwealth Arabia, bar the ultra minority complain about everything groups.

What people don't appreciate about the EU in our timeline is that it was initially done with just West Germany, so France was the major power. France saw the European integration as a method to lead the rest of Europe. Later France couldn't really stand in the way of German integration, and it's worked out just about since then because Germany deliberately didn't take the senior role. Now Germany is starting to step up, there is huge antagonism in France - look at the polling for the Front Nationale and Sarkozy's recent comments. In addition, France opted out of the NATO command structure to preserve its military independence from the USA. France just doesn't like playing second fiddle to anyone else, thinking of itself as a great power, and playing second fiddle to the ancient rival is worse than playing second fiddle to anyone else! An economic club is even worse than a cultural club, because France believes in dirigism, state-directed economics, while the rest of the bloc is going to be a free market liberal one. French politicians from right and left have disdained "Anglo-Saxon capitalism" for a very long time.

Oh and France never applied to have a union with the UK. One particularly Anglophilic leader asked about it (and joining the Commonwealth) in private conversations, and it was kept as a state secret since then because of how explosive it would have been politically. French historians have said how shocked they were at the revelation.

I agree the French never actually formerly applied; but serious discussions were had about it behind closed doors - it's all documented at the National Archives (in London). I'd argue that although they never applied, it shows that there was some thought as to whether it could work from the French side. France has been bashed in this TL; not insignificant number of Frenchmen have emigrated to London or Quebec before non-Commonwealth immigration laws have been tightened. They are then naturally going to be largely advocates for a Commonwealth France, and Canada itself will advocate for it to be able to use it as soft power against Quebec nationalists.

I don't see any major problems with France being in the Commonwealth and what you've just said. Military is probably the biggest, and there's nothing to stop France keeping it's military independent yet part of the alliance as per NATO. Current polling in France I largely attribute to the dire state of the economy and the Euro, rather then the EU itself.

And nothing stops the French sticking to their state-directed economies. The Commonwealth is likely to draw upon British constitutional examples; highly malleable into whatever form is required. Some form of compromise between the Commonwealth and French agriculture can be reached - I think the French will continue to offer subsidies to French farmers, but then the British used to as well with some price controls (after WWII OTL); I can see some level of British subsidy for farming in this TL as well, paralleling (to a lesser extent) French subsidies to even it out a bit. Without WWII though (in the UK), I'm thinking the UK will have a larger population by a few million - which will further erode available farming space, and make the French agricultural market also appealing as a source of imports from the British side.

Let's be clear that investment in East and Central Africa in the UK was investment in white-owned farms, that had been given to settlers when the natives were pushed off the land. You need a vast difference in British government and societal attitudes to allow for anything different, and your POD isn't early enough. But your other comments (about SA being kicked out - I must have missed it in my skimming) make a fair case for the UK taking a stand on this, so I'm not going to quibble further. But you should be aware this is only going to happen on the basis of an elite doing it, and public discontent being ignored. (That's fine, because African leaders get away with ignoring their public most of the time in OTL, but we should just appreciate it happens.)

People on this board often think that big discrepancies can be made up for by minor changes. East Africa at this time is mainly agricultural workers and street hawkers. The area doesn't make sense as an industrial hub - you might get a handful of factories, some operating at a loss - but it's not going to employ more than about 5% of the population. That means an upside scenario is wage growth of about 5% a year. Meanwhile you can increase your wages by about 500% by moving to the UK, plus get better education, healthcare and security. A space agency launch site isn't going to change that much: NASA employs about 20,000 people, and most of them here will need to be skilled white expats brought in. The East African Federation is currently 150 million people. This isn't something you can easily change with "investing a bit more". Societal transformations are really hard things to do, and are especially hard to do in Africa, particularly with a generation of rulers who haven't had much experience and have to deal with mass politics.
You are still going to have vast numbers of poor people, and the longer you keep the door open, more are going to immigrate to the UK.

Firstly, it hasn't levelled off much at all, and vast numbers of Poles are still coming to the UK. Secondly, Poland has benefitted enormously from (a) a huge market right next door in Germany, (b) a very capable governing class that have successfully combatted corruption and improved education and (c) HUGE amounts of US investment during the Cold War and EU investment since the end of it. Thirdly, the wage gap between Poland and the UK was never anywhere near as large as that between East Africa and the UK.

If you look at the history of Western nations, no government has been able to have mass immigration from poor non-white countries for more than about 20 years. Whether you regard their concerns as legitimate or illegitimate, mass public concerns with the matter threatens to upend the political system and governments have had to clamp down as a result.

The first paragraph I largely agree with. East Africa and Central Africa (Federations) are going to be the poorest in the Commonwealth - but I think they will be far better off then OTL. With the higher population in the UK, and subsequent squeeze on space, housing is going to be more expensive - I think that many poorer Africans will be unable to afford the trip to the UK, let alone to live in the UK, and this will further keep many at home. Unlike OTL though, many will go to Canada or Australia as well (in smaller numbers then the UK). East Africa joins the Commonwealth directly in 1962 - just shy of 40 years after the PoD. I accept that things are not going to suddenly change into an industrial marvel in Kenya, but things will be better then OTL. There will be more mining in areas of Tanzania to extract the resources, and more industrial-scale agriculture in Kenya. Neither are going to be industrial giants - but the Commonwealth provides a nice export destination for things like Kenyan coffee and tea or Tanzanian gemstones and nickel. The stable Commonwealth can also be the source of public and private funding for the critical infrastructure to drive such an economy; better transport links and cheap electricity generation (probably based upon hydroelectric or solar) will be able to drive adoption. Tourism, with better developed infrastructure, will also continue to be a major player. It's not just a case of Governments investing "a bit more", but corporations are going to be attracted to places like Tanzania for the abundant resources. Things like this will drive other knock-on investment; whether in trains to get raw materials to the coast for shipping, or whatever. I think the politics will be unstable somewhat; but with it remaining in the Commonwealth, Cwealth citizens remaining in the civil services rather then disappearing at independence, I think it can remain continue to grow. Governing parties may change, but I don't see Commonwealth membership being in threat or it being a major electoral issue - the EU has never (until 2010ish) been a major electoral issue; all parties are in favour of it in some fashion. Even UKIP want to retain free trade with the EU.

Polish immigration to the UK levelled off, before slightly increasing again; apologies for the incorrect statement.

I largely agree that long-term uncontrolled immigration is bad for any government; my thoughts are that East Africa and Central Africa will be the prime source of any mass/economic migration, it's spread (disproportionately) across the whole of the Commonwealth though, and the Africas are better off, so less people are going to leave what were in OTL unstable and poor countries with not great prospects on the horizon.

PS: Thanks for the comments, interesting reading your thoughts! :)
 
I don't want to turn this into one of those endless quote back-and-forths that are tedious to everyone else, so I'll try to keep my points brief.

On Arabia. Firstly, people grossly exaggerate the effect of the House of Saud on the evolution of Islam. Islam has had huge chunks of violent radical elements for a long time: go and look at the history of Egypt or Afghanistan in the 19th Century. Even in our timeline, huge numbers of fundamentalist Muslims detest the House of Saud, alleging they are American puppets, showing that it's not following the narrative that the Saudis are pushing. This includes, incidentally, people at all income levels in Saudi Arabia itself - just look at OBL - showing that a monarchy can't control religious opinion even within its own country.

In this timeline, the Commonwealth is clearly going to be seen as a supranational structure above each member country. The Hashemite caliph is going to be accepting the British monarchy as head of this. Plus, every Arab ruling class in OTL has turned out to live the high life and brutally put down dissent below it. This will cause further dissent, and that dissent will love portraying the leaders as colonial puppets. I credit you for avoiding the usual implausibility of excluding India from a more united commonwealth in this timeline, but this one really sticks out as a sore thumb. You either need (a) Arabia out, (b) remove the King as the head of the Commonwealth or (c) huge violent unrest in Arabia against the ruling class.

On France, I would argue that being downtrodden in WW2 in our timeline made them even prouder as a nation and less willing to accept Anglo-Saxon leadership. As an economic club, why would they join one that they'll get outvoted constantly? Why not just get a Latin-club of them, the Italians, the Belgians and the Spanish where they can get some power? They can still have an alliance with the Commonwealth? Also, there were not any serious discussions in OTL: there was a single back and forth between Mollet and Eden. Nothing extended, and nothing with anyone beyond Mollet.

On Central Africa. Poor immigrants don't make careful cost-benefit analyses on things like housing costs. A few go and make a lot more money than they could ever dream about back home. Their network of friends and families hear about it, and then make the trip. There's then a more and more rapid increase as time goes on, until there's a clampdown.

A commodities based economy is also going to go up and down with commodity prices, meaning suddenly huge numbers out of work during market crashes, which is going to cause even more people looking for a fresh start. And industrial scale agriculture largely means reducing agricultural employment - look at the Highland clearances. A resource-based economy also usually means the resource curse, which is detrimental to development and has a big academic literature around. Seriously, look at African nations in our timeline. The best case is something like Botswana, and it's still a hugely poor economy (GDP per capita stats are distorted by inequality - check the Gini index). And Botswana managed this through being a lone case in Africa of not having ethnic splits.

Also, you claim collective infrastructure spending is now done. That completely contradicts the push about it being a loose group about industrial standards in the French/Arabia cases. It now has a central exchequer making spending decisions.
 

Devvy

Donor
Fair points....will take some of them and merge them in. Thanks!

Late PS: Nothing lasts forever. I had fully envisaged this community splitting at some point anyway, even before these discussions!
 
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On migration from the poorer parts of the Commonwealth remember that India (in this case including Pakistan and Bangladesh) is not part of it after independence hence there is no freedom of movement to Commonwealth members. In fact the only potential sources of migrants to the richer parts of the Commonwealth are only East Africa (OTL Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and South Sudan) and the West Indies and perhaps Rhodesia/Mozambique and Guyana (including the OTL French and Dutch Parts).

Remember also that since the Indians who live in East Africa are mainly middle-class business owners (who unlike in OTL will not be forced out) would unlike move to Britain; the only potential migrants (apart from the odd migrant from elsewhere) are Africans in East Africa and the West Indies.

Even if those levels are at the high levels they were in OTL that will still mean that non-white migration could actually be quite a bit lower than OTL in the case of the UK, especially when you consider that they could also go to Canada, Australia, New Zealand and even the South American Commonwealth states.

Likewise what migration is going to come from East Africa and the West Indies is likely to be those with an education and who can afford to fly to Europe, the Americas and Oceania. Thus I doubt there would be many Kenyan villagers moving to London.

So in fact race relations in the 60s-80s might actually be better than OTL with lower numbers although issues will still arise. This would mean that the Indian/South Asian Community (which thanks to migrations from East Africa as well as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) would never be anywhere near as big as OTL (which is around the number of people who live in Wales in OTL as of this year) hence there would be a lot of butterflies, from the popularity of Indian food to the likelihood that my family never comes to the UK.

On Arabia. Firstly, people grossly exaggerate the effect of the House of Saud on the evolution of Islam. Islam has had huge chunks of violent radical elements for a long time: go and look at the history of Egypt or Afghanistan in the 19th Century. Even in our timeline, huge numbers of fundamentalist Muslims detest the House of Saud, alleging they are American puppets, showing that it's not following the narrative that the Saudis are pushing. This includes, incidentally, people at all income levels in Saudi Arabia itself - just look at OBL - showing that a monarchy can't control religious opinion even within its own country.
However I doubt that the Kingdom of Arabia is going to be giving vast amounts of money to Islamists or claim legitimacy though Islamism or claiming to be “Islamic” when they are not (like the Saudis do).

Hence they will not be creating a Frankenstein’s Monster which they cannot control after they realise what a mistake they have made.

Likewise with No Israel there is going to be less of a rallying cry to join Islamist Movements, I mean the Arabian Kingdom ITTL covers the area ISIS are busy in.
 
Just as a note to population movement, Canadatakes in a good number of West African people's, due to our franco-friendly policies, on top of French speaking Carribean islands.
 
On France, I would argue that being downtrodden in WW2 in our timeline made them even prouder as a nation and less willing to accept Anglo-Saxon leadership. As an economic club, why would they join one that they'll get outvoted constantly? Why not just get a Latin-club of them, the Italians, the Belgians and the Spanish where they can get some power? They can still have an alliance with the Commonwealth? Also, there were not any serious discussions in OTL: there was a single back and forth between Mollet and Eden. Nothing extended, and nothing with anyone beyond Mollet.

Wasn't Mollet OTL supportive of European integration, while Eden wasn't? Maybe that's why it couldn't pan out OTL, because Mollet I think wanted France to be involved in that (backing the EDC, Euratom, and EEC), while Eden didn't want the UK to be involved...:confused:
 
Just as a note to population movement, Canadatakes in a good number of West African people's, due to our franco-friendly policies, on top of French speaking Carribean islands.

The United Kingdom in OTL has 1.8 million people who are of African or Afro-Carribean origin. Since many of those will end up in Canada (along with some from French Speaking Africa) I would doubt if the UK African Origin population is much higher than a million ITTL.
 

Devvy

Donor
On migration from the poorer parts of the Commonwealth remember that India (in this case including Pakistan and Bangladesh) is not part of it after independence hence there is no freedom of movement to Commonwealth members. In fact the only potential sources of migrants to the richer parts of the Commonwealth are only East Africa (OTL Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and South Sudan) and the West Indies and perhaps Rhodesia/Mozambique and Guyana (including the OTL French and Dutch Parts).

Remember also that since the Indians who live in East Africa are mainly middle-class business owners (who unlike in OTL will not be forced out) would unlike move to Britain; the only potential migrants (apart from the odd migrant from elsewhere) are Africans in East Africa and the West Indies.

Even if those levels are at the high levels they were in OTL that will still mean that non-white migration could actually be quite a bit lower than OTL in the case of the UK, especially when you consider that they could also go to Canada, Australia, New Zealand and even the South American Commonwealth states.

Likewise what migration is going to come from East Africa and the West Indies is likely to be those with an education and who can afford to fly to Europe, the Americas and Oceania. Thus I doubt there would be many Kenyan villagers moving to London.

So in fact race relations in the 60s-80s might actually be better than OTL with lower numbers although issues will still arise. This would mean that the Indian/South Asian Community (which thanks to migrations from East Africa as well as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) would never be anywhere near as big as OTL (which is around the number of people who live in Wales in OTL as of this year) hence there would be a lot of butterflies, from the popularity of Indian food to the likelihood that my family never comes to the UK.

However I doubt that the Kingdom of Arabia is going to be giving vast amounts of money to Islamists or claim legitimacy though Islamism or claiming to be “Islamic” when they are not (like the Saudis do).

Hence they will not be creating a Frankenstein’s Monster which they cannot control after they realise what a mistake they have made.

Likewise with No Israel there is going to be less of a rallying cry to join Islamist Movements, I mean the Arabian Kingdom ITTL covers the area ISIS are busy in.

I've been doing quite a bit of reading on this, and further research (hence the somewhat pause in updates). Indian migration to the UK will definitely be far lower then OTL; Indians have no movement rights to the UK following it's independence here since 1945. There's no 1960s migration from India to the UK; but also there's no mass exodus of Indians from East Africa due to the far more stable political and economic climate. East & Central Africans will form the backbone of the economic migrants in this TL; the UK/Canada/Australia will be generally able to accommodate this wave as per OTL. Europe, not suffering from the communist wave, will also result in less emigration (which formed a wave of immigration to Australia) - which will free up "space" for the East African immigrants when comparing OTL vs this TL.

Just as a note to population movement, Canada takes in a good number of West African people's, due to our franco-friendly policies, on top of French speaking Carribean islands.

I think that'll continue here; I've already mentioned that Canada has taken in many French people following the French devastation at the hands of the Germans. An amount of French Africans will also be migrating. The UK, with the lack of a WWII to kill and maim people, or blitz the cities, will be a source of migrants to Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Argentina as well as was historically the case; the UK will be more populous then OTL which will act as a further push factor for many British born people.

Wasn't Mollet OTL supportive of European integration, while Eden wasn't? Maybe that's why it couldn't pan out OTL, because Mollet I think wanted France to be involved in that (backing the EDC, Euratom, and EEC), while Eden didn't want the UK to be involved...:confused:

Mollet was keen on it, in order to oppose German hegemony in any way - the constant refusal of the UK (*1) is part of the reason France teamed up with Germany to form the basis of the EEC/EU OTL. Part of the reason Eden refused French interest in the Commonwealth was that OTL the Commonwealth is an institution of shared culture more then anything else. In this TL, the Commonwealth is an institution of economy and politics rather then just culture, which makes it more flexible when it comes to allowing people in.

The United Kingdom in OTL has 1.8 million people who are of African or Afro-Carribean origin. Since many of those will end up in Canada (along with some from French Speaking Africa) I would doubt if the UK African Origin population is much higher than a million ITTL.

Yep; as mentioned earlier, there will be more African Canadians, but I'd also not sure about the 50% reduction in African migrants to the UK? :confused: If East & Central Africas have free movement to the UK, then there will probably be more migration to the UK - particularly from Central Africa which will be quite poor here (I can see rough EU/Romania parallels here).
 
I've been doing quite a bit of reading on this, and further research (hence the somewhat pause in updates). Indian migration to the UK will definitely be far lower then OTL; Indians have no movement rights to the UK following it's independence here since 1945. There's no 1960s migration from India to the UK; but also there's no mass exodus of Indians from East Africa due to the far more stable political and economic climate. East & Central Africans will form the backbone of the economic migrants in this TL; the UK/Canada/Australia will be generally able to accommodate this wave as per OTL. Europe, not suffering from the communist wave, will also result in less emigration (which formed a wave of immigration to Australia) - which will free up "space" for the East African immigrants when comparing OTL vs this TL.

Agreed, however I think you mean Southern Africans or those from Zambia and Malawi when you mean Central Africans. I am not too sure on less European Migration but I doubt the addtion of East/Southern Africans would make much difference here.

Yep; as mentioned earlier, there will be more African Canadians, but I'd also not sure about the 50% reduction in African migrants to the UK? :confused: If East & Central Africas have free movement to the UK, then there will probably be more migration to the UK - particularly from Central Africa which will be quite poor here (I can see rough EU/Romania parallels here).

Zambia and Malawi already had Freedom of movement until the late 60s and you still have to factor South Africa/Rhodesia as well as potental destinations for people living there. Likewise you have excluded Ghana and Nigeria in the Commonwealth and thus few from those nations would be going to the UK compared to OTL. When you add that to the additional destinations for migrations that is why I suggest the lower numbers.
 

Devvy

Donor
1986: Approval is sought and granted for a major new airport on the north side of London, largely as a relocation of Luton Airport which would be downgraded. The new location, near Cublington in Buckinghamshire, in the countryside is controversial; new transport links will need to connect to it, and it sits isolated in the countryside - although this is triumphed as a pro point, as local towns will be less affected by plane noise. The 1980s, and large upswing in air travel due to stable oil prices and rising personal finances, has led to complaints from Luton locals about aircraft noise, and efforts to avoid this in future are reliant on a countryside location, and strict limits about the development of land in a 5-mile radius. Local villagers raise merry hell about the proposals, but are eventually subdued through protracted legal battles.

Ontario follows Quebec's lead, and establishes the "Ontario Railways" group under provincial management for passenger routes. SNCQ begins a reorganisation, and starts a project into extending the Montreal-Mitterand Airport-Ottawa high speed link through Montreal and on to Trois Riveries and Quebec City. The Quebecois Government sees the link as investing in Quebec's future (and potentially reducing traffic in downtown Montreal), despite the large expense. It is also quietly intended to provide investment not just for the future, but to try and persuade more businesses to remain in the Montreal area; many have slowly relocated to the Toronto region as Quebec has slowly become more and more French-speaking (usually pinned upon the wave of French immigration in the 1940s and 1950s).

The Pascal system has launched enough satellites for location-finding to be relatively easy with the right equipment. The system is widely used by the assorted Commonwealth militaries for location tracking, and also by civil aviation and shipping, and is widely regarded as being accurate and effective.

The Bolshevik Republics initial steps towards a tentatively "liberal" agenda are met with appointments in Finland, Estonia and Latvia for more "independent" minded people in the local Governments. Finland is particularly affected, and Bolshevik troops are involved in putting down a pro-Finnish uprising in Helsinki, resulting in the deaths of several demonstrators. The incidents quickly spiral, and result in the brutal supression of the Finnish protests, and arrest of the chief conspirators, and the appointments of a large majority of pro-Bolshevik Finnish politicians.

A new centre-left Government is elected in Argentina, with an electoral mandate for nationalising several of the "public" industries in Argentina which have traditionally been owned and operated by British companies. The initial nationalisation moves are decried by British industrialists, but pushed through the Argentine Congress. Such moves draw many critiques from centre-right British politicians, but the UK is unable to intervene in the sovereign matters of another Commonwealth member and so the official response is to stay well out of the matter, as long due legal process is followed.

1987: A new computer network is created, largely as a marketing technique, called LinkNet, although the public begins to call it the "Interlink". Largely based off the telegram network, communications are directed by phone number, although it now supports name aliases and direct instant 2-way contact. Commercial companies spring up in due time, to offer business communications via the Interlink, as well as directly to residential households with money to spare. The network proves extremely popular initially with multinational companies operating across the Commonwealth as it enables quick communication to branch offices around the world.

Commonwealth Standards begin work on unifying car standards (with the exception of the driver side) to enable better pan-Commonwealth car trade. It covers subjects such as crash-worthiness, front and rear light organisation, seat belts, spare tyre availability. The work divides some of the countries - it is more popular in the mid-range vehicle exporting countries (Nordics, France, Argentina), and less popular in the better off countries who already have domestic standards covering the subject (the UK, Canada, Australia). It is one of the first major dividing lines in Commonwealth standards, with some seeing it as the first point in a long road of Commonwealth dilution.

A Commonwealth Parliament is proposed in order to provide a suitable democratic oversight to the Commonwealth Commission by advocacy groups in several Commonwealth countries. Such a Parliament faces many constitutional hurdles though; it would effectively present a supranational Parliament/Government that overlooks the national political systems. The move is swiftly put to bed by political leaders who wish to retain complete national independence, with only co-operation, consensus and teamwork as the building blocks of Commonwealth politics.

The Severn Barrage in the United Kingdom opens, bringing new links across the Severn Estuary, and providing a significant boost to electric market with cheap & green electricity. The Cardiff Metro system is extended across the Barrage, meaning that Weston-Super-Mare is the first (and only) English town to be connected to the Welsh public transit system. A new expressway also runs across the new barrage, forming a full expressway connection into South Wales, giving the existing Severn Bridge further upstream much needed relief.

Protests continue in the western Bolshevik Republics, with events starting to spiral out of control. and it is quickly becoming apparent that the Bolshevik authorities are struggling to keep their people under Bolshevik control. The actions are widely backed - in spirit and with goods - from Finnish expats in Stockholm just across the Baltic Sea.

After further informal talks, the "Group of 8" pushing for a new league expanded to include Celtic, Rangers, and Hearts who were all interested in a new league that was free of the constraints of the smaller Scottish league system. A chance meeting between a French official from AS Saint-Etienne provided some initial interest in a form of "European Super League", with British and French teams participating. Both sides of "La Manche" were struggling with depressed supporter figures, and were looking for a way to revitalise the state of the game. The movement for the new league seems to be gathering traction in the clubs, despite distaste for the idea from the Scottish Football Association and French Football Federation, as well as far-from-positive responses from the English Football Association.

1988: The Commonwealth establishes the first (semi) permanent presence in space aboard an orbiting space station, named "Falstaff". Although other nations often overshadow Commonwealth space actions with grandiose "first steps" - such as to the moon, it is the Commonwealth which provides much of the solid movements for mankind in space, following up American or Bolshevik first steps with concrete moves.

Elizabeth gives birth to two non-identical twins, a boy and a girl. The boy is declared born first, and the girl second; Prince Henry Michael Charles and Princess Victoria Alexandra Marie.

Commonwealth troops officially begin to withdraw from Somalia, and a joint United Kingdom, East Africa, Somaliland & Ethiopia treaty sets out the exact boundaries of the new Somalia provinces on the Horn of Africa. There are some other small boundary shifts, but generally the treaty grants much of former Italian East Africa to Commonwealth Somaliland, bringing into fruition a new united Somali homeland. Also Ethiopia sacrifices little, the two sides benefit from a better delineated border, as well as joint actions in securing the lands of the interior, and rights for Somali people in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia for cross-border movements.

Echoing the sentiment of change in the western Bolshevik republics, the South African bloc began it's first forays into reform of it's apartheid system. The bloc of South Africa, Rhodesia - and de facto including Botswana (formerly Bechaunaland), had largely operated as a single country for decades, and now negotiations were underway to begin to roll back some of the systems of segregation that had been widespread across the region.

Ontario Railways begin to construct a new express line through Toronto for express services, and a high frequency mass transit route along the Ontarian Lakeshore for local services named LART (Light & Advanced Rapid Transit). The move is also echoed in Argentina, who begins to build a new high speed link from a new Buenos Aires International Airport (to be named Buenos Aires Maureen Dunlop Airport after the former Argentine Transport Minister who was responsible for pushing the new airport through the Argentine Congress) to Buenos Aires and beyond. A movement also springs up to move the Argentinian capital away from Buenos Aires to a new city (some advocate for Bahia Blanca - a few hundred kilometers to the south of Buenos Aires), as a way of counteracting the current capital's weight in population and economy. Many fear for the future of Argentina, with Buenos Aires coming to dominate the country so much. As many as 1/2 of people live in the capital area and wider environs. Much was pinned on reinvigorating the Argentinian economy, and diversifying it away from Buenos Aires, to help stave off Brazilian - and wider Latin American - commercial opposition, and attempted moves by Brazilian commercial interests to operate in Argentina and Uruguay.

An Englishman, born in Arabia, but whose family moved to London when he was only 1 year old, is called up to the English national football team. Al'Sharar, who hails from Damascus is visibly non-white with a very foreign sounding name, and quickly draws racist commentary from nationalists, who decry "non-English" players playing in the English national team. After scoring 2 goals in a match, and beating Scotland 3-1 in a special Home Nations tournament, some label the result as a 1-1 draw (ignoring Al'Sharar's goals). The player's treatment in England is a galvanising moment for anti-Commonwealth protestors in Arabia, quickly organising themselves via the egram system. Protests break out in Damascus about Commonwealth; the prominent faces of the movement call for an Arabian withdrawal from the Commonwealth - after all, Arabian trade in petroleum is huge and growing, and has made riches in some areas of the country.
 

Devvy

Donor
Agreed, however I think you mean Southern Africans or those from Zambia and Malawi when you mean Central Africans. I am not too sure on less European Migration but I doubt the addtion of East/Southern Africans would make much difference here.

OTL, Zambia and Malawi were part of the unofficially named "Central African Federation" (or Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland officially according to Wiki), so I've used that name.
 
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